What the Crimean Bridge Attack Means for the Russia-Ukraine War

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In the morning hours of October 8, 2022, the Crimean Bridge came under attack. One of the most important pieces of Russian infrastructure, the incident represents a major escalation in the war. This video explores the immediate consequences of the attack in the context of the broader conflict.
0:00 What Is the Crimean Bridge?
0:34 Did Ukraine Attack the Bridge?
1:01 Why Was the Bridge Attacked?
2:03 The Difficulty of the Attack
2:39 Civilian Casualties
3:02 Lost Value to Ukraine
3:59 One-Time Cost Problem, Featuring Lines on Maps
4:59 Importance of Crimean Land Bridge
5:18 Issues with Intelligence
5:37 Removing the Golden Bridge
6:14 Population Sorting
6:51 Support of Moderates
7:10 Tit-for-Tat Retaliation
8:00 The Nuclear Question
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From the President of Ukraine:
www.president.gov.ua/en/photo...
From Rosavtudor.ru:
rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie...
rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie...
rosavtodor.ru/about/upravleni...
From Kremlin.ru:
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
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Images licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:
www.flickr.com/photos/ministr...

[@Gametheory101]

I produced this video just a few hours after the attack. The situation and the facts on the ground are rapidly changing, so keep that in mind as you are watching it. As with all of my videos, the main thing I want you to take away is the overall strategic issues at play, which extend beyond a single attack.

[@lawjef]

Putin: uses the "nuke" word US (and allies?): destroys another piece of essential Russian infrastructure Repeat... Probably just a coincidence

[@Rampart.X]

Demonetisation is hitting all channels reporting on the war. Good luck to you.

[@Milnoc]

The roadway heading to Russia has been partially reopened, but is off-limits to heavy vehicles. The escape route is still present. The state of the railway however is unknown. The fire may have done enormous damage to the steel infrastructure and tracks. Honestly, this looks like a best-case scenario. The bridge is repairable, but Russia's war logistics have been severely hampered for a long while.

[@CollectiveWesterner]

The Russians have had numerous warnings to get off of Ukraine's land, if they were too stubborn or just too stupid to leave, then they deserve whatever happens to them.

[@jakeaurod]

Has your channel been demonitized? A bunch of other miltubers said their channels were demonetized overnight.

[@asmodon]

An aspect you might be missing is that one of Ukraines military goals is accelerated attrition of the Russian army so they lose not just their willingness but also their ability to fight, thus ending the war. So they might not want the Russians to be able to flee, like in Kherson.

[@matthewbartley2746]

It's better to fight an enemy who CAN flee, than an enemy who has no choice but to dig in and fight to the last man. If they're trying to speed this up.. then preventing retreat is done to destroy the enemy.. not beat them out of an area. No this bridge is a provocation to escalate the overall conflict.

[@barryon8706]

@@matthewbartley2746 There is an alternative to fighting to the last man; Russians can and have been known to surrender.

[@dunnowy123]

@@matthewbartley2746 I agree, I think it's meant to terrify the Russians and prompt them to leave, but may inadvertently lead to a greater crackdown within Crimea too.

[@bobb3n]

@@matthewbartley2746 I don't think the Russians would dig in and fight to the last person. Moral has been ridiculously low and many have surrendered. Ukraine would without a doubt prefer Russian soldiers surrender than wipe them out to reduce their own losses. Even die-hard Nazis could be convinced to surrender in WW2 when encircled, and I don't think the Russian soldiers are more keen to fight to the end. And it's also quite hard to fight to the last bullet if you don't even get the bullets delivered.

[@ArchOfficial]

@@matthewbartley2746 Bold of you to think the troops in Crimea won't just surrender.

[@AverytheCubanAmerican]

It was not attacked...it was a "special bridge dismantling operation". I wouldn't compare the Crimean Bridge to the Golden Gate Bridge but rather the George Washington Bridge between NY and NJ. The NY Harbor in general is a very economically important hub. Remember Bridgegate and how that destroyed Chris Christie's career? If let's say the George Washington Bridge was damaged, that would put pressure on the Holland and Lincoln Tunnels. Which mind you, the Lincoln Tunnel already has to deal with all the buses that use it to head to the Port Authority Bus Terminal. It would disrupt the economy and an important link, like this did to the bridge.

[@JRead0691]

A truck bomb, missile strike, and train bomb have been ruled out by a bridge engineer. It was explained that this bridge is put together in sections and is nearly impossible to do damage to it from above, but an explosion from below would dislodge sections of the bridge, which is what we see.

[@peterlabrash1036]

I concur good sir

[@rogerphelps9939]

@@peterlabrash1036 Yes. The video shows the blast coming from below and to the side. It makes a mockery of the FSB's claim to have found the culprits. The culprits are either long gone or never closer than a couple of hundred miles away. |The sooner they have another crack at it and finish it off the better.

[@bigdiesel6912]

heray ur so smarty "Arighty then"u figureditnout

[@arielmorandy8189]

It can be damaged from above. This is a big construction, an easy target for artillery and heavy bombers. I do not concur with you. You should see the type of heavy bombs a B52 can carry. This is 20 Tons of hell that will fall onto the bridge deck. And they can carpet bomb the bridge.

[@paulcarey1708]

Perhaps the attack struck the perfect balance: compromise the bridge's effectiveness without taking away escape route, whether on purpose or by chance.

[@thorr18BEM]

That's what I thought when I saw two of four traffic lanes might be still functional. Even if every lane was still working though, I like seeing fuel trains hit. Crimean military has planes, boats, tanks, etc which all burn fuel. Every shipment should be hit until they run out.

[@Jondiceful]

Exactly what I was thinking. It could be coincidence. Perhaps they meant to bring the whole bridge down, but only got half of it. Whether intentional or accidental, leaving the escape route intact is the best possible outcome for Ukraine and the worst for Russia. Reports of Russian forces in the Kherson region running out of ammo, if true, makes desertion a genuine threat. Striking their only safe route back to Russia, severely diminishing hope of resupply, while still leaving the escape route open is going to read like a personal letter to every Russian occupying the area- "leave now while you still can."

[@thomastaylor9586]

Why do the Russians need an escape route from Crimea? Crimea is Russian

[@jetzenijeboer4854]

I think the intention was to spread russia's manpower even more thinly. Every soldier needed to protect russias infrastructure, cannot fight ukrainian troops at the same time. If that was the intention, total demolition was never an objective.

[@concinnus]

Likely random. Of the Ukranians who are praising the result, some should know if the driver was a willing participant, and they aren't praising his heroism, so my guess is he had no idea. Thus he was in the far lane by chance.

[@ianng4633]

I think the real reason why the bridge is taken out now is because of the increased threat from the Russian offensive resupplies due to the mobilization. If there will be a projected number of new troops bound for Crimea in a few months time, the strategic value of the Crimean bridge suddenly became higher.

[@TheEDFLegacy]

Indeed. If anything, the bridge has been giving them the opportunity to take up the Russian forces piecemeal. There may not be a professional Army left by the time the conscripts reach the front.

[@user-jp4ct5oq8x]

По мосту уже запущено движение поездов в обе стороны и автотранспорта по одной полосе, а так же паромные переправы. Опоры моста устояли, поэтому мост восстановят в ближайшее время. А факт того, что Украина страна террорист на государственном уровне, останется на всегда...

[@chrismckellar9350]

@@user-jp4ct5oq8x - Откуда вы знаете, что Украина - террористическая страна? Именно Россия вторглась в Украину в 2014 и 2022 годах. В любом случае это может быть тревожным сигналом российской военной разведки (ГРУ). ФСБ или другая российская государственная организация/и дать президенту России разрешение на войну.

[@republica843]

@@user-jp4ct5oq8x and Sputin is Satan's bitch.

[@republica843]

Ian Ng, that is a possibility, but Russia has lost the will to fight. A video showed Russian soldiers, conscripts surrendering en masse. Weapons are low. If anything, as a final act of attack, Sputin might use his nukes. Let's hope not.

[@lancetison5856]

this is the follow up i was waiting for after the eval 3 weeks ago. thank u

[@AverytheCubanAmerican]

Ukraine: Hey, I know you hate us, but we heard it's your 70th birthday and wanted to give you something special. No hard feelings? Putin: Wow, thanks- Ukraine: Ukraine tweeting "sick burn" is going to go down in the history books as one of the most legendary geopolitical statements ever. I love it

[@pja6476]

100's of young men are dying and a Twitter account makes jokes about said war.

[@stevengordon3271]

The ease in which this was accomplished shows it can be done again after a repair. Defending against that will become a big distraction even if the bridge is not attacked again.

[@lengerer]

You saw an explosion. Their could have been months of planning and execution

[@markthetruck]

This was not "easy". It required an insurgent attack; as missiles, in the Ukraine arsenal are limited. If Ukraine had access to long range missiles, this would be child's play.

[@ksp1278]

Just because it was successful doesn't mean it was easy. Russia, for sure would have had surveillance on that bridge. If they really did have men go up there manually placing explosives whilst avoiding detection, that was surely a lot of planning and maybe also luck.

[@TheBlackadder-Edmund]

@@ksp1278 definetly not easy, but I believe the spirit of the statement is that is was a target that was deemed impossible to touch but was greatly damaged by a truck (of course with all the logistical & operational support). he even states the bridge may not even be attacked again (even if possible ) , as another similar tactic could be used somewhere else while extra resources are diverted to the bridge.

[@ksp1278]

@@TheBlackadder-Edmund structural engineers have stated that it couldn't have been a vehicle expoding on the top that did it. It would have to be carefully placed explosives on the support structure.

[@Bustermachine]

One thing that's been pointed out to me recently is that the Ukrainians may not actually care about the Bridge's economic benefits as Russia specifically constructed the bridge to restricted the maximum of ships that can travel to and from ports in the Sea of Azov. This has has a serious effect on the regions economy. So without modification, Ukraine might prefer to tear out the trellis span if they retake Crimea.

[@sdgvlkjnasdlfkjawlk]

I just saw that as well and was going to make the same comment. The bridge is too short, by 10+ meters, to allow larger ships to reach Ukrainian ports and too narrow between the pylons so that the major shipping lane can easily be blocked which has happened.

[@grizzz6884]

but what are they going to export , and to who . the west is bankrupt . the real reason for the pipelines having maintance , was to hide the fact we in the west have no money to buy the gas . have a look into how our energy use has dropped .

[@lambertdixon6683]

y78ok

[@thewhitewolf58]

Its one of ukraines last dying breaths in their terrible defeat. Putin said it would take 5 years but its barely taken 5 months because as usual putin is a genus only donald trump is smrter.

[@sichere]

@@noop9k Indeed what a load of BS 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@alyssaparker7811]

I want to thank you again for coming to University of Kentucky. I had no idea how interesting the subject of war would end up being to me and how much I would enjoy researching this situation on my own to better understand it. As soon as this attack happened, I could hardly wait to see what you had to say. No birthday party with song and dance...no "Putin on the Ritz" indeed.

[@bigdiesel6912]

ha ha alyssa i the ending part of ur coment .anf ur rite theeir was no "Putin on the ritz

[@TheGeneralWorldofTanksReplays]

It appears to be one or two fibreglass semisubmersibles with as much as 10 tonnes of explosive each. Sent under two of the spans to make it more difficult to repair them. The fibreglass was shredded in the explosion and was seen falling like confetti afterwards. In one of the CCTV videos you could see the bow of the submersible come into view as it exploded. The boat was likely similar to the remote controlled attack boat found on the West coast of Crimea near Sevastopol. They timed the boat attack to coincide with the oil tanker train to increase the damage. The smoke after the explosion can still be seen coming from below the bridge after the flash dies out indicating that the attack came from underneath and was of such force that it took out the supports.

[@machintelligence]

Note that the steel spans of the bridge were not attacked. If the damage caused was enough to put the bridge out of commission for a few months, it could be done again and again. A bridge is a very big target and can't run away.

[@markthetruck]

The heat of those burning rail cars puts that entire structure at risk. Rail is the artery of Soviet logistics. I will be shocked if, when the KGB orders transport to resume after peremptory repair, that structure does not fail catastrophically.

[@romanszefler7479]

Hmmm.. have ever heard about security 🤔. They make mistake once. I think they learned

[@machintelligence]

@@romanszefler7479 They won't make the same mistake again -- they will make different ones.

[@artruisjoew5473]

@@markthetruck more importantly once weakened, the ATACMS may need able to finish it off.

[@ackomanah6486]

It won't be so easy to do it again. Russia will put in security checks and severely punish anybody they catch.

[@williamyediares7057]

I will forever remember this incident as a ''Sick burn " that's by far the best response I could have expected to read !

[@jankkhvej434]

My countries tweets are really the only reason i go on that website sometimes

[@ladedalounge]

It is war...first generation Ukie here

[@johnrandolph6121]

Dude, your videos are awesome!

[@freedomofreligion3248]

Fantastic video, thank you.

[@davidbowie5023]

Cannot help but I think the Ukrainians did the right thing. Since Putin anticipated the battle around Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, he had sent more reinforcement there. To make the reinforcement network unsustainable, destroying the bridge is a must. 🇮🇪🇮🇳🤝🏻🇺🇦

[@vomm]

The disadvantages are nowhere near as weighty as the advantages.

[@Jeff-kw8jj]

@@vomm Nothing can overcome the FEAR RUSSIAN SOLDIERS NOW HAVE AS THEIR ROUTE OF RETREAT IS GONE

[@thedonkilluminati96]

Ukraine needs zapprizhzhia because it gives ukraine 60% of electricity, russia is in this for the long haul

[@winkieblink7625]

I’m surprised the bridge wasn’t taken out months/ years ago….in this war since 2014. Great Video explanation. Thank you.

[@ichtozavuzovsky8370]

@@Jeff-kw8jj They still have the land bridge, or surrender

[@oleopathic]

Civil engineer, here. Judging from photos and videos of bridge damage this was a "controlled demolition" which in practice is akin to a demo contractor setting pin-point charges at weak points of bridge and then setting them off in a controlled, orderly manner. As far as weak points. Weak points are the places where the span segment, I.e. deck, connects to supports, I.e. bridge piers. Charges were attached to bolts, gusset plates connecting decks to piers. So what do I think happened ? This was a special forces mission which used combat sappers. They used the advantage of a long overall span of bridge as a way to evade detection. Russia has no resources or will to adequately patrol entire span, they have no discipline to properly protect this chokepoint. Their navy ran away back to Russian mainland after naval defeats so marine patrols of bridge suffered as result. Special ops used cover of night to setup. And set off charges remotely at opportune time when fuel train was passing by and very early in morning to avoid civilian casualties. 3 dead is a small price to pay. Do you agree or disagree? And why.

[@tomst9417]

I think yours is a plausible explanation as it appears this was a well-planned operation designed to only damage not destroy the bridge. Ukrainian special ops could infiltrate a small group of sappers to execute this attack. What quantity of explosives would be needed to damage this structure and temporarily make it unsafe to use?

[@grizzz6884]

i would add that the wests bankers needed this to keep us from creating a bank run . the 60 billion pound bail out was to keep loyds insurance afloat

[@Misharyo]

I disagree with you because why not? if there is evidence then it should suggest otherwise but the fact that it’s open for speculations or you could call it assurance but at the end of the day it’s perhaps an opinion it shows that any opinion is subject to verification except for what is known to be the absolute truth. Anyway if you still think that is the case it only means nothing but if you are trying to understand my point then you won’t lol because I have none

[@markthetruck]

Cool. The why wasn't the primary assault upon the rail, which has greater capacity than road? Clearly road was a primary target.

[@markthetruck]

@@Misharyo brilliant!

[@VideoAssociates]

This War could go on for years to retake Crimea, love your videos, terrific explanations given

[@abdulqadeerkkp3173]

Thanks for such a meaning report Thank You again

[@realcrys]

The way they attacked the bridge is genius. Russia will now have to check every vehicle going on the bridge for explosives. This will reduce the bridge's usefulness massively

[@AndreLuis-gw5ox]

There is no evidence that what caused the explosion was a truck. This claim comes from a single cctv footage that is discredit by other angles of the explosion showing that the explosion did not originated from the truck.

[@rn2dresq]

Agreed. But checking each truck for explosives should be rich for a bridge that is supplying a war effort.

[@millerrepin4452]

If russia believes that a truck causef the explosion and has to inspect every vehicle then the truth is irrelevant

[@Kat_Mann]

Sally wrote : your going to find out what half a million troops makes real soon. This will also make civilian infrastructure viable targets.

[@mirekslechta7161]

USA must get it´s nose out of EU anyway. Europeans need Russia for pice and prosperity, not USA, or it´s criminal organization NATO.

[@-umph]

I really wanted your take on this William but I was expecting to wait a week! Thanks for this!

[@nigeldeforrest-pearce8084]

Excellent and Outstanding Analysis!!!

[@santoshjoshi2695]

I will read the book by you. Well done William. Best wishes to you from INDIA.

[@raiden5386]

Absolutely incredible how quickly you got this video out, I'm just seeing the news of the Kerch bridge's destruction and William Spaniel already has a video analyzing the implications, love your videos

[@ProudPapaJD]

As soon as I saw this attack this morning I thought of your video and here is your follow up already. Good work!

[@tracycummins4709]

Excellent video. Thanks.

[@robertgotschall1246]

I'd just seen the first video, then I saw the solution someone came up with. Thanks.

[@charliechuck1341]

On one video of the underside of the bridge. There is clearly a ship or barge sailing underneath. the explosion is interestingly at the same time as the ship reached the midpoint of the bridge. I believe an attack from below is the attack.

[@benghazi4216]

Clearly? All we see is a wake. Like between other pillars, as it is a strait between two seas. Experts, actual scientists, from the west are sure it is a truck bomb filled with civilian explosives. Only Twitter is delusional to think up fantasies like a drone barge, timed with a train no less.

[@Andrea-LovesYouStill]

I just wanna say, compared to nearly every other bombing I’ve seen, those guys were pretty careful not to hurt a lot of ppl. That’s pretty cool. I mean, war happens but how you fight makes a difference.

[@Useaname]

Want to. Not wanna

[@JLSMaytham]

"How you fight" What, like arbitrarily murdering civilians for accepting Russian humanitarian aid?

[@lordXAVIJAANBJERGNOG]

@@JLSMaytham Did that aid come before or after Russians looted all their stuff?

[@tuanngnt]

Haven't you heard yesterday from a lot of news channels that a massive grave was just found in one of the annexed regions that contained about 500 Ukraine bodies which included 226 women and 29 children? These 500 bodies are the people that wanted to hide from the attack of Russian soldiers.

[@silverfox8615]

@@JLSMaytham Russian humanitarian aid? Like their bombing of hospitals, using white phosphorous on lost territory, leaving mass graves of civilians when they retreat in panic?

[@mst7155]

I've read the comments. The most persistent question is what caused the explosion. The most simple and plausible explanation: there was some powerful explosive material placed under the railway bridge connected with a remote control. They waited till the fuel cars on the railway began to pass through the right place.... The collateral damage to the asphalt section can be easily explained by noticing that debris from the railway bridge shouldn't fall exactly next to the railway.....

[@Gungepup]

With regard to the escape route problem, I wonder if they're counting on larger numbers of Russian soldiers to surrender, rather than fight to the death, in the absence of an easier escape. From what I've been hearing (and I'm half a world away, of course, so that's a big grain of salt), it sounds like quite a few are surrendering when they're able to, and maybe this will make more of them frightened enough to push them into surrender as well? Just speculation on my part.

[@bret4o9]

Of course they will surrender they have no will to continue fighting. These people were failed and abandoned by their country to die for nothing honestly I feel the worst about the average russian soldier, if you see the clips that have been going viral lately of recruits complaining about not being supplied properly, no proper food not even enough ammunition or roof above their head. Winter is coming now and without a easy way to resupply a big chunk of the russian army will surrender gradually . And Ukraine is being smart about it they make it easy to surrender and they encourage it. Ofc Russian generals won't allow surrender but if the soldiers are desperate/angry enough they will go against their generals will no question about it .

[@dangda-ww7de]

@@bret4o9 If i were the russian soilder i would pretend to be capture by ukraine and jail as a pow, that way when you are release after the war putin wont put you in jail.

[@bret4o9]

@dang0088 da That's not as easy as you think they know people want to do this so surrender is forbidden and you will be shot if they find out you're trying to do this also injuring yourself on purpose will get you like 10 years in jail so it's actually pretty hard to surrender you have to be very lucky to pull it off

[@dangda-ww7de]

@@bret4o9 If i were russian soilder i wouldnt fight for putin, i rather do jail time than die from ukraine bomb and drones.

[@dystopik32]

i wondered how long before you responded to the news, keep up the comprehensive analysis!

[@desinr_m6346]

Never stop making these videos, great quality.

[@JohnnyD45]

I agree.👍🏻

[@emankcin1701]

He most likely stops next year when the war ends.

[@dizgroontled]

@@emankcin1701 all the Ukraine war videos got demonetized

[@AH-jf8uw]

🦭

[@grogery1570]

I am inclined to believe that the explosion was caused by an IED attached to a vehicle carrying military supplies, that is explosives. This would explain why a search missed the bomb and that it was powerful enough to blow up a bridge. That it was timed to explode while a train was going past seems unlikely, but, a mobile phone could have been used so an observer could detonate it at the correct moment.

[@joeyanny8018]

Thank you for what you bring us. It’s masterful and very much appreciated. 🙏

[@thebob5240]

I think it's pretty unlikely that Russia pulled a false flag operation here the bridge is just FAR to important for their logistics to the Kherson front as well as Crimea as a whole and if it was it was THE dumbest and most poorly executed false flag operation i have EVER seen or heard of in my life. I think this was either Ukrainian Separatists or perhaps Russian militant groups either against the war or against Putin, but the fact remains it COULD still be the Ukrainian military and they just aren't fessing up which is a possibility.

[@richdobbs6595]

The Russians will use the incident to the same benefit as gained by a false flag attack in any case. But I think you claim too much. If the Russians where clever, they would already have several precast, pre-cured replacement sections of the road way, as well steel necessary to replace sections of the railway. If the piers don't need to be replaced, this could be far less meaningful as far as actual damage compared to its impressive view. Given the state of disinformation today, it seems incredibly difficult to deduce actual motivations and actors from observed and reported news.

[@thebob5240]

@@richdobbs6595 What do you mean i claim to much? Like the fact that this couldn't be a false flag operation or, that it was Russian militants or Ukrainian Separatists?

[@winkieblink7625]

Ukraine doesn’t have to fess up. It’s war. It’s really time for both countries to go to the negotiation table. Maybe Ukraine gives up only Crimea with 100 % access to Sea of Azov. A good solution to a bad war the RUSSIA started. I’m surprised Russia gave up the Ukraine Peninsula in 1991. For Centuries it had Russian identification. So, Ukraine can make peace with giving it up, new border along the Kherson Oblast swamp thing and Putin can hold his head high with a WIN/Trophy to his failed war. If this type of agreement works, PUTIN MUST SHELVE all types of future aggression towards Ukraine. Cut the cord Putin. STOP THE MADNESS.

[@absolutezero1247]

@@thebob5240 He means its not as unlikely as you think, it could have been Russia if they had prepared for it adequately, but frankly I don't think they have the capabilities to prepare against and deal with that kind of damage right now

[@erikanders3343]

I am more inclined to believe it was poor safety and a badly timed flick of a cigarette

[@Concertina43210]

Also, I really don't see Ukraine as willing to part with any of the newly annexed territory. For them it's not just about borders and land. It's also about the civilians living in those annexed regions that would be handed over to the Russians. Those people witnessed first hand the atrocities Russian forces are capable of. Could Ukraine, for example, make a deal to hand over Mariupol after what those people went through, and now force them to be part of Russia? They just wouldn't do that. Crimea is a slightly different situation because of its close ties to Russia. But even so, Russia annexed it illegally. Which means the Kerch bridge was illegally constructed. The fact that Crimea is not universally accepted as legitimate Russian territory makes it a legitimate target for Ukraine. That bridge, just like the Moksva, were symbols of Putin's presence and his disregard for international law and the sovereign nation of Ukraine.

[@paulmaydaynight9925]

? russia initiated the smo to put an end to the 8+ years of endless killing of east Ukraine residents by the Ukraine govt Nazi battalions. ? history: Ukraine Was created By & for the Bolshevik USSR, russia can take it back any time -after the old drunk illegally gave it away.-

[@missesCarmenB]

Many people in the Eastern Ukraine don't want to be part of Ukraine, they were persecuted in the last 8 years.

[@Jonas-km4qx]

@William Spaniel Do you think that the attackers wanted to blow up the whole bridge but "failed? Thank for great content!

[@louishansen2370]

It was not a truck bomb. Multiple experts have been cited stating the truck simply wasn't weighed down enough for it to contain enough explosives to deal that much damage. There's also no crater on the asphalt, and the railings aren't blown outwards - as they would be if the explosion occurred at the same level as them. All signs seem to indicate that the explosion was underneath the bridge, probably from a drone boat. A small barge is seen on security footage traversing under the bridge between the supports right under the truck only moments before the explosion engulfs that section of the bridge.

[@vap0rw1se]

When William Spaniel uploads, you know shit just got serious

[@Gametheory101]

The plan was that the next video would be about nukes, so let's hope it doesn't get *too* serious.

[@nickmcgookin247]

Dude that's the best part of this analysis is that you get back to us

[@xXCheapTofuXx]

@@Gametheory101 Keep releasing videos my friend, great quality content! Always good that you release videos very fast in response to live events!

[@hungrymusicwolf]

@@Gametheory101 Don't jinx it for all of us!

[@Swagpapii]

When I saw that the bridge was destroyed late last night, I thought of the video you posted a while back. You are low-key making some of the best videos on the Ukrainian conflict. Keep it up man

[@robertlittin5196]

Watch... in the efforts to repair the Railroad bridge, that damaged section also collapse due to the additional weight of an additional train used to remove the damaged cars being that that section of the bridge has been significantly weakened.

[@finbarryan3590]

Are two lanes left intact ?If so could it not have reduced usage?

[@mikekenney8362]

Yeah, there’s symbolism, but this attack and the advance in Luhansk is all about logistics, especially with winter coming. You can expect massive Russian unit capitulations, especially Kherson

[@liarspeaksthetruth]

You're the adult voice in a KZbin full of chatter. I very much appreciate your work and insights. The considerations you list are comprehensive, but I'm curious of the weight each issue carried into the decision making process. History will reveal all that one day hopefully.

[@mindfictiontv4664]

History is written by the victors.

[@jeffbguarino]

Go back and look at all the analysis in February , just before Putin invaded. Everyone said he wouldn't do it and Putin and his mouthpieces also said that. So these analysis , in depth are usually going down paths that are so chaotic that no one can do it in a reasonable way. Logic does not prevail. This could very well be Putin blowing up his own stuff. The pipeline and now the bridge. He needs his people to rally behind him. Maybe this bridge is really not doing such a wonderful job after all. How much stuff and people are using the bridge and will be going to use it that make a difference ? There are many Russia ships already off loading military equipment and one ship equals about 20 trains worth of stuff. The pipeline is a lost cause for Putin and he has decided that since it is already never going to be used again, why not blow it up. Notice the bridge is useful but the damage was not that bad. It can be fixed. One side of the highway is down but the other side is OK. 2 lane highway is probably enough and the just have to build a shunt for the downed section , so it will barely make a difference. Putin likes to do things like this to rally people , like the apartment bombings in 1999 in Moscow and the subsequent invasion of Grozny.

[@elbabeolchi1754]

@@mindfictiontv4664 not for true historians

[@republica843]

@@mindfictiontv4664 that statement is getting old and painful. Read Fritz Fischer's, Causes Of World War I. Certainly not written by the victor.

[@timc3639]

the large semi-truck which is visible in the video at the time of detonation does NOT appear to be the weapon's conveyance. The truck appeared to be a casualty of the explosion, as well as the passenger vehicle adjacent to it. Further, other video shows that Russian military inspected the semi prior to accessing the bridge- the size of the blast suggests that a small, hidden explosive doesn't match the size of the blast.

[@vferdman]

The outbound part of the auto road (out of crimea towards Russia) has not been damaged. This takes care of retreat issue.

[@EverendeverGroup]

I love that they chose Putin's birthday for this operation. The Ukrainian sense of humor is equal to Ukrainian determination and adaptiveness.🇺🇦

[@TheBarser]

Honestly I don't think Ukraine did this alone , but with NATO.

[@EverendeverGroup]

@@TheBarser Well, everything that is being accomplished has been a result of NATO members' help.

[@TheBarser]

@@EverendeverGroup yeah true. Just that this seems like it would take quite a bit of help to accomplish.

[@unclesmrgol]

@@TheBarser I expect that if NATO had anything to do with this, the bridge would be in a lot worse shape.

[@bigdiesel6912]

yeah i thought that was hilarious on putin birthday .Hey putin happy birthday "Zipper Head" hah hah heah heah i cant stand putin u ignaraimous

[@lorenzoluisalbano3695]

The railroad bridge cannot be repaired easily. Those sections under the fuel cars had burning fuel for several hours seeping into it, over and under. It sagged. The sections have to be replaced entirely... if the pillars are not damaged, which would make the bridge unusable for many months. And might collapse entirely when they remove the destroyed train, which is heavy.

[@johnm7267]

It is already being used

[@erikk.137]

Not true.

[@carltannehill8307]

You called that pretty well, good job!

[@Jim54_]

As Albert Speer said “I knew the War was lost when the glorious victories got closer and closer to Berlin”.

[@dfoolz]

Damn, I saw the news at like 6am and immediately thought of your last video on this. Great job on getting this new one up so quickly.

[@sk-sm9sh]

One car lane of the bridge still remains thus leaving fully functioning escape route while reducing the overall capacity.

[@mkrnp]

Would have liked to see actual photos of the damage to the bridge.

[@matthewmoseley3899]

I very much appreciate your expectations of this war. Your very good at explaining the crazy things that are going on. Please could you do a video about if Russia destroy the DAM . And the consequences of that on this crazy war. Thanks. Matt 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

[@larryclemens1850]

The pictures I have seen shows the explosion occurring where the road portion transitions from its steepest part to a more level part. This makes the attack at the greatest vertical distance i.e. the furthest point from the more gradually sloping rail bridge. The rail bridge carries more troops and military equipment; thus making the rail bridge the more valuable military target. If a truck bomb was used, the more logical place to detonate would be at, or just below the point where the two bridges intersect vertically thereby increasing the effectiveness of the blast on the rail bridge and consequently Russian logistics. As pointed out, destroying the road bridge cuts off an easy avenue of retreat and is so an equivalent to the medevil tactic of burning the bridge behind you.

[@youtubeSuckssNow]

Everything I've seen has been that it was under the bridge, not a truck bomb. Ukraine did get underwater drones from the US so that's possible. And the SBU reportedly claimed the attack.

[@77thTrombone]

I wish I'd've stumbled onto Bill-Dog's channel earlier. This is war college stuff. The channel should be mandatory watching for news reporters of all major outlets who conduct war-related interviews. #BBCRadio

[@wynnecs]

Yes, B-Span continues to put out great stuff.

[@aaronfitton9076]

I really like your format of video, and the writing is clear and informative and too the point, you are one of my favourite KZbin channels when it comes to information about the war , keep up the great work 💛💙

[@siegfriedkraker6014]

Crimea Bridge Attack, Question was the train on the Kerch Bridge in the time of the accident in motion or stood still for several hours?

[@jfu5222]

As always, the very best Ukraine/Russian analysis anywhere.

[@DerdOn0ner]

We’ve already seen with Lyman, that a lot of Russians would rather become POWs than fight against Ukraine and die. The same is going to happen in Crimea, with or without the bridge

[@MikMoen]

If there's no reason to hate your Enemy then there's no drive to fight them. That's a major advantage for Ukraine.

[@jrgordon47]

Something that Putin and his Generals missed or forgot or maybe never learned...Urkranian's envission themselves as Cossacks...The same Cossacks that fought on July 4, 1610, at the Battle of Klushino where 4000 Ukrainian Cossacks fought. They helped to defeat a combined Muscovite-Swedish army and facilitate the occupation of Moscow from 1610 to 1611, riding into Moscow with Stanisław Żółkiewski. The important thing to remember is that the Ukranians are still settling scores from that battle... Watchout Ivan...

[@SupremeLeaderKimJong-un]

As I prefer to travel to other countries by train, I too hope to visit the western side of Russia eventually and ride my train on that bridge. Only visited the Siberian part in Vladivostok where I played Super Smash Bros Ultimate with my boy Vladimir. Had a great time. While the West is distracted with Ukraine, we launched a missile over Japan to remind them that we still exist and have the right to defend ourselves against a threat

[@bradydunham5950]

Thank you for the video!! I understand it's very risky to do so these days

[@jamesm568]

Nothing risky about it, just don't monetize it, but then again these ignorant KZbinrs don't know how to make a video these days unless it makes money for them.

[@theinacircleoftheancientpu492]

I thought your previous explanation made a lot of sense, since Ukraine most likely took those into account, and found a suitable method. Judging it was time to cash in. Now whether it was good or bad I cannot judge, but I was able to make logical sense of it on that basis.

[@rjfaber1991]

One of the key points from that earlier video was that it was potentially a bad idea for Ukraine to completely destroy the bridge, and that they would be best served by somehow taking the rail bridge out of commission while leaving the road bridge intact. Obviously they haven't quite managed that, but one half of the road bridge is still intact and operable, while the rail bridge has sustained serious damage.

[@theinacircleoftheancientpu492]

@@rjfaber1991 Rather than saying they haven't quite managed it, I strongly suspect that the damage may be within the range they intended. I'm summarising, but partial damage may well achieve the major short term strategic goals while minimising the negative long term strategic losses.

[@rjfaber1991]

@@theinacircleoftheancientpu492 I actually agree; my point about them not quite managing it is that they haven't quite managed to destroy the rail bridge without damaging the road bridge too badly. Obviously that would be very tricky to do with any kind of explosion anyway, but it does seem like the bulk of the damage is actually to the road bridge. What exactly that means for the conflict, especially in the context of the points raised by William in his previous video, remains to be seen.

[@theinacircleoftheancientpu492]

@@rjfaber1991 Yeah, it certainly seems that removing the rail would be most effective. Perhaps not everything went perfectly as you say, that is quite possible too. As for future escalation... with my very limited knowledge of the situation it seems unlikely that Russia will neutralise Ukrainian advantage until they succeed in mobilising their "big-country advantage", and I would not be surprised if Ukraine retakes their borders before that. Regarding nuclear, I think Putin has got us all riding the tiger on this one. Neither side can afford to back down, and if he uses nuclear we have no choice but to retaliate. It's purely a matter of if the line isn't drawn now then when will it be? See world war 2 for the perfect example of backing down from an aggressor and paying the price. I don't LIKE being on the warhawk side, but it is the most rational here I think. It's for that reason I don't think military strategists are holding their breath, if it happens it will happen whatever is done, and extended territory control probably gives better defensive options.

[@dneuman7455]

I am surprised if was the ukrainians why wouldn't they take out all the bridges ? and why didn't Ukraine wait this long to attack thw bridges . Wouldn't they have taken them out 3 months ago? needs a investigation to know what's up. people are taking credit probably for Russian draftees sabotage.

[@davebartholomew1346]

William please answer what is terms of surrender.

[@przemysawabramowski3037]

There is a likely possibility that the logistical impact of this attack may end up minimal. Two road lanes are out for long, but the remaining two may be good in 2-3 days (single file traffic now). Damage to rail bridge is unknown, but there is no apparent damage, and a test train (what weight?) crossed OK. So, actually the rail bridge may even not be seriously damaged at all. Does Russia use the road bridge close to its capacity - big question. If not, two lanes may just be enough or nearly enough, and then the long-term impact would be minimal.

[@houstontexas9463]

great content, well explained, thought it was on point. this video is closing in on 200k in a little over an hour. 🤝

[@rottie615]

1.2M as I post. This is an awesome video

[@callmevbuck4054]

Ukraine’s response was extremely casual and I find it funny

[@supersour420]

I saw videos showing the 2 incoming missiles. (From above, just a second apart ) you even hear these 2 explosions in the video that shows the truck That everyone thinks is a bomb. The videos I saw look like a strategic air strike. The box truck was just another victim-unsuspecting of what was about to hit in front of him

[@shotgunseth1]

Is a scud missile accurate enough to hit the bridge?

[@defenestrated23]

Here's my thoughts as a chemist, machinist, and winner of the 10th grade bridge building competition in my shop class: I'm skeptical of the truck bomb hypothesis. Bridges are FAR weaker in uplift than in compression (several times as much). We know the russians built this fast and cheap. This highly suggests a girder-on-pier construction, where you cast concrete piles, drop a deck across the span, and bolt it together. The weakest point is at the T junction between two decks and the pier. Furthermore, you have 3 sides boxed in by the pier, the deck, and the water itself, focusing the blast up at the deck: ________ || ^|| That's the sweet spot. Create an overpressure, the deck pops up at the expansion joint, then flops back down into the water. You want a low-brisance high-gas-volume explosive. This points right to ammonium nitrate gel explosive, or ANFO, maybe aluminum sensitized. You don't need to cut so much as create a pressure bubble. We are looking at around 1000kg(about 4-5 55gallon drum's worth) at the absolute low end, maybe 20,000kg at the high end (for under-bridge blast). Call it 5 tonnes. I'm thinking drone boat or narco sub. Easy to carry that much explosives, stealthy, much harder to secure a sea than roadways. Easier to remote control, more forgiving than a remote truck to drive. Even though it looks like it came from Russian water, we don't know the path it took. It could easily have turned around to find the optimal spot. The best evidence is the wake we see on the one angle video, seconds before the blast. The truck on the bridge that many people are pointing the finger at does not add up. You need at least 3-5x the amount of explosives to drop the deck like that. That's at the limit of what those trucks can carry, with less guarantee of success. Again, bridges are *designed* to resist compression, especially in snow areas. Also the truck does not seem to even slow down. If it were an attack, you'd expect at least trying to pick a good spot for maximum damage. Also, with that much blast on top of the road deck, we'd see way more damage to the train, and the other cars would be absolutely strewn. Plus rigging a truck to remote drive is harder than a boat, more suspicious coming from the southeast, risk of checkpoints. And suicide bombs aren't UA's MO, though maybe desperate/terminal/patriotic AF person might do it. Point is, truck does not add up. Also, google "crimea boat drone". They were found in the area last week. Occam's razor.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

I agree. The sparks in the air also may indicate aluminum powder was added to the explosive slurry. Adding fuel (very fine mesh metal powder) to the explosive helps by reducing the peak in pressure but increasing the duration. More "area under the curve", so to speak.

[@defenestrated23]

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD aluminum powder would oxidize instantly in the slurry. Given the distance, and the burn time, those sparks are at least 0.25-0.5" in diameter... exactly the size of rebar. Otherwise yeah exactly.

[@gloriaattema6329]

8 Jim on hi t

[@suelee637]

Thank you, fascinating read.

[@011CJ]

Thanks for your vid thair is vid of the Russians inspecting the sed truck thoroughly before letting it on to the bridge so truck theory is out the dore and thair is a vid from between the 2 bridges that shows a wake in the watter under the bridge and then it blows up. Also no damage to the road deck like you would see from an above attack ie missile or truck bomb. And the train was stopped at a signal light

[@DonJuravin]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@joenichols3901]

Talked to my brother about this who is an engineer. Mind you, he's a young engineer and drunk at a wedding but his opinion is that it's going to require significant repairs to just get the rail going. All the areas of rail under the fuel tankers are likely destroyed, removing all the tankers, etc. That's assuming the foundation is fine - but he's also using American standards of repair as reference. The passenger portion will be out for a while undoubtedly. Idk what portion of supplies/equipment moved from the rail side as opposed to the passenger car side - that analysis would be interesting. In my opinion, they should keep hitting that freakin bridge till its inoperable. Ukraine is going all in at this point. This video does a good job of proper military analysis but at this point I think Ukrainian leadership intends to retake all of Ukraine and not have any type of agreements.

[@michaelsmith7425]

Interesting points. One thing I would consider is not only the russian repair standards but also their build standards? It appears to be one spot that was attacked, but two seperate sections fell into the sea. One part appears to be a double section and the other a single. It was supposed to be very strong as apparently that is an area with seismic activity. So there were either two points that were hit or the second area was dropped due to a shock wave coupled with shoddy construction? Can't wait for the truth to come out in the years to come.

[@joenichols3901]

@@michaelsmith7425 Yeah we won't know the answer to our questions till after the war sadly... but of course understandable. Given Putin's clear military build-up the past decade, I would not be surprised to learn that this bridge had been designed/built to be a "war bridge"; meaning in the case of an air strike, bomb, etc it was designed in a way that would allow quick repair. I might be giving the Russians too much credit, but if I was a dictator who wanted to go to war with Ukraine, my top priority would be to ensure the absolutely critical bridge going to Ukraine would be able to handle the conflict I knew I was going to fight. But who knows If Ukraine can hit it once then they can hit it again. It should be open season on that bridge now. It seems that in the summer Ukraine spent it destroying logistics and supply hubs in areas not far from the frontlines. Now they are using that approach to areas well beyond the frontline. I love the tactics here. I am also very certain NATO/USA knew about this attack ahead of time and that it fits into the overall plan.

[@joenichols3901]

@Sonification It's when hes at his best

[@michaelsmith7425]

@Sonification Is there any other way to be? I'm Irish so he saying goes "Hatch them,catch them , match them or dispatch them", we drink.

[@TheJoeSwanon]

I would imagine the railroad section of the bridge transports most of the war materials and would probably be of greater concern

[@dennisking9257]

Start hitting where the bridges starts at the shore line on each side with all that artillary and mortar

[@JWMCMLXXX]

How does one learn this sort of analysis? So interesting

[@Rampart.X]

I believe the truck bomb's detonator was GPS triggered and the train similarly rigged for a GPS triggered breakdown using small explosives. Having the train break down first then the truck follow made synchronisation easier to achieve.

[@ericconnor8419]

It looks like they stuck a big bomb under the bridge and blew it up remotely when the train was crossing that would be the easiest way

[@MightyRude]

@@GlennRA3 I think you’re right, you can see water mixed with shrapnel spreading over the bridge coming from the right.

[@boudicca9807]

@Apocalypse The train explosions could have been mostly ignited oil. A prior explosion on the car side sending hot shrapnel to puncture the oil tanks and ignite the fuel would amplify the original explosion, no?

[@20ZZ20]

@@ericconnor8419 looks like you can see something moving in the water right before explosion maybe one of those suicide unmanned boats Ukraine has

[@Snoil]

Immediately thought of the video you did a few days ago going over the cost-benefit analysis. I think Ukraine's calculus is that damage without total destruction worked best for them. They are probably right, they have momentum on a retreating adversary and this will prevent that adversary from reloading at whatever their current make a stand lines are at.

[@gigemags1991]

I agree. Also, Ukraine's stance in this war has been mainly based on defense and pushing back. This puts them in an offensive kind of stance against Russia. Maybe creating a thought in Putin's mind that maybe Crimea maybe against him now or that the Ukraine military are not just in Ukraine. Even though it maybe a hand full of Ukrainians that did this it could paint a picture that their are even more there and that it might push Russia to use other supply routes and have doubts on really where the enemy really is. All you have do is put doubt in someones mind to cause confusion.

[@kray97]

If someone attacked the Golden Gate bridge, you could use the Bay Bridge. It's inconvenient, but hardly a show stopper.

[@anthonyverdin6743]

Great video

[@MPdude237]

One of the lingering questions about Crimea is what will Kyiv do with the Russians and Russian property within the country, provided they manage to retake Crimea? Given that Crimea has been made a part of Russia for the last 8 years, there are likely a fair few Crimeans who adopted Russian Citizenship and people from Russia Proper moving in. My best guess and what would probably the best choice would be to allow Residents to stay/leave as they wish and those that remain be granted Ukrainian Citizenship, while allowing Russian owned private property to continue to be managed by the owners but seizing any Government/Military property from Moscow. Forcing residents to stay or leave will not do Kyiv any favors and look quite bad. I suspect that Pre-Annexation residents and their descendants will be immediately granted Ukrainian Citizenship but those that moved in from elsewhere post-Annexation will have to undertake the normal naturalization process. Citizenship will probably be a source of friction here since Ukraine doesn’t allow dual citizenship and many of Crimea’s residents may still want to retain Russian Citizenship. Should Ukraine manage to retake Crimea, it will likely be a messy and rocky reintegration but hopefully it will turn out alright.

[@Ggthxbye]

Давай мы сами разберёмся что , и как нам , надо делать . Спасибо

[@user-yj5jg8xs2p]

Kiev will become Hiroshima sooner than we will give up our land and not only Crimea

[@itzikashemtov6045]

@@user-yj5jg8xs2p in 2014 you literally stole it from a weak Ukraine, Now in 2022 you tried to do it AGAIN but this time getting you're ass kicked, The biggest country in the world is greedy and corrupt and wants to take others shit more, I hope you're whole generation suffers and continue loosing lives in this front, It's amazing to watch it on live.

[@sdgvlkjnasdlfkjawlk]

Russians go back to Russia and Russian property is forfeited in their surrender for reparations.

[@sdgvlkjnasdlfkjawlk]

@@user-yj5jg8xs2p Bring it. I've been waiting decades to see the nuclear destruction of Russia. Just kidding. Putin's going to puff himself up and make threats, but he doesn't have the gonads to push the button -- even his brain is big enough to understand that would be a Bad Idea.

[@allisonmarlow184]

I hope you haven't been demonetized like so many other english speaking vloggers today. We all need to pressure YT to reverse this decision.

[@jenniferclark9842]

KZbin claimed it was a glitch of some sort, and it’s since been fixed.

[@justj1393]

Why would he be demonitized? He's pro-Ukraine. They are only censoring Russian sources.

[@nationalnesteggsolutions2335]

A retired general on a vid I recently saw said something that I thought had great insight. He said that if Putin uses a tactical nuke, then he (Putin) loses the leverage that comes with the threat of using the nuke.

[@bigdiesel6912]

putin bluffing about usr of nukes if he wasnt then he wouldve already did so bc the after math is every nation against putin means the gloves come off ."And he dont even want too "F" with that mack daddy. hah

[@hellfire9145]

It was a spectacular action, but have doubts whether it was a wise move. If the sea bridge to Crimea is vulnerable, the Russcists will be more determined to hang on to the land bridge through Crimea. If the intention was to hamper movement of troops and materiel into Crimea and hence to Kherson, surely there are other vulnerable targets on the rail and road lines across Crimea- that are easier to attack and which could cause equal havoc It will take a lot of Russcist troops to guard the whole route !

[@DanHageeStuff]

In modern times of war where there are "rules of war" for surrendering troops the ancient concept of the importance of the "golden bridge" is vastly overstated in contemporary strategy discussions. Armies fought to the last man in the past because in defeat they were annihilated or enslaved to the last man.

[@Jondiceful]

Even then, they rarely fought to the last man.

[@JohnnyD45]

Himars never miss.🇺🇸✌🏻🇺🇦

[@theduke7539]

its a good point that there is not a single artery bridge in the US that is even remotely as independently valuable as the crimean bridge. Honestly, the closest thing would actually be the Alaskan overland Highway back in the 40s, the US has so much infrastructure that there are no enclaves of land connected with only a single line in and out. And any place not connected is too far to connect via bridge. There really is no American analogy to that bridge in terms of transportation.

[@BrentHollett]

Movement on the bridge will be available (though limited) in a few days. So there will be an escape route again.

[@kathleenaustin327]

The truck drove from Russia!! Unrest in Russia is real!!! Great job whoever did this!!!👍💪

[@wokekkk]

Lol Ukrainian propaganda

[@187GloGang]

@@wokekkk doesn't exist i think you are watching russians television

[@wokekkk]

@@187GloGang onestly yes I used to watch rt series on Russian military vehicles all the stats were over blown but the guy who presented it was funny asl

[@Robert399]

Regarding the escape route, they may want to trap a large number of Russian soldiers and force their surrender due to lack of supplies (in either Kherson or Crimea). _Or_ they may not seriously be considering retaking Crimea at all (in the short-to-medium term) and this is entirely to make their recapture of Kherson and Zaporizhia easier.

[@williamboyles3592]

Was looking forward to your analysis. Your presentation is fantastic. Thanks for your dedication 🙏

[@jjsilajjsila4048]

The fact is that,One will fade and one will rise one day.....Roaring won't help but actions will roar.....

[@andyyang5234]

My guess is that this is a signal Ukraine is ready to open a Zaporizhzhia front. With Zaporizhzhia and Kerch being the two rail lines Russia uses to support logistics in Kherson, the disruption / destruction of either will push Russia to heavily defend the remainder. Therefore ideally, Ukraine will want to destroy both at the same time, before Russian defenses can react. The Kerch bridge will obviously need to go first, as it is the more difficult target, and there's no point pushing an attack on Zaporizhzhia unless the Kerch bridge is confirmed inoperable. If the Kerch bridge is down and Ukraine does not attack on the Zaporizhzhia front, this is a bit more puzzling. But even then, Russia might need more troops to guard the rail line through Zaporizhzhia, and that would require valuable resources that can't be deployed elsewhere.

[@frankstidham1439]

That was a beautiful birthday present for Putin's last birthday! Glory to Ukraine!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@smartguy360]

@Mishura Russia is doomed

[@wimpieeeeee]

@Mishura Well for starters, Russia is losing this war. And if the Russian forces somehow do win, Russia will be sanctioned in such a way that they will go bankrupt soon after. Look at all those sad and scared souls that Russia sends to the frontline without any equipment; it's just sad to see really. All those souls lost because of 1 deranged fool who wants back the Sovjet era border lines.

[@nonautemrexchristus5637]

@Mishura your army lives in pig pens and rapes babies, you're bound to lose

[@grannyhype9024]

Too.much troubles around this world we need prayers an fasting that bridge if damage lots can loose their lives

[@raymondsawyer8626]

@Mishura glory to Russia and you image the United kingdom flag, the United kingdom does not support Putin's war, the glory is to Ukraine from the United kingdom 🇬🇧🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@marvfj6451]

I KNEW you'd put out a video today. When I awoke to the news I reviewed your previous video on why the Kerch Bridge had not been attacked. So interesting!

[@xymaryai8283]

was it damaged enough to restrict transport, or was it more of a warning attack?

[@BD-yl5mh]

Watch the video? (To help a bit though, there’s mixed reports about exactly how bad the damage is, but it seems that it’s bad enough to restrict logistics for several months, but not so badly that if Ukraine are able to retake Crimea that it would be prohibitively expensive to rebuild it)

[@fozzir]

Good video but I'm surprised you didn't mention the difference between the moral in the Ukrainian troops vs Russia. I think that's the number 1 issue here and why Ukraine has done so well despite having less weapons and troops.

[@funnyman4744]

Ukraine has about 100,000 more troops but these guys are very inexperienced and don't have the best weaponry.

[@stephenbrown2922]

Yes, morale is a huge issue among Russian troops. Already we have seen thousands of fighting-age men flee and attempt to flee the country. Those who did get conscripted are poorly equipped and will be poorly trained to serve the need for bodies on the front line. It is clear that Russia/Putin greatly underestimated the resolve of Ukraine and now cracks are starting to appear on the Russian home front with open criticism of the 'special military operation' on the increase. It will not necessarily be the case that more Ukrainian casualties will be created by closing off the bridge as an escape route. The other alternative for demoralised Russians is surrender.

[@grizzz6884]

@@stephenbrown2922 that was putins greatest plan , when they find out the west has no affordable energy , they will come home or add to west wests homeless problem

[@DawnAfternoon]

Exactly. Lack of morale is why America lost in Vietnam war to begin with. And here we see Russia's lack of morale losing hard against Ukraine.

[@Akane-T-012]

Ukraine has more tropps tho