What the Sportsbook SEES when you BET w/ BigBuckHunter

[@HTTR59]

Thanks for bringing vids and info like this. Keep up the great work!

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Thank you!

[@Nick-it2ne]

Best sports betting podcast hands down, thanks gp

[@scubaseball12]

Pretty sick interview

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

Thank you!

[@Steve-eb8jc]

Another great interview with a very smart guy. Unfortunately I think people are way too optimistic about sports betting exchanges. The premise is that tons of clueless gamblers will ditch their favorite rec book that they’ve been familiar with and has all the fun little props, parlays, sgps, promos and migrate to a clunky, boring interface with little more than spreads and totals, all because they will lose 2% instead of 5% on their bets each week. The truth is that the vast majority of these rec gamblers are just not capable of comprehending how, why, and to what degree they are losing. They are not sitting there with their oddscraper and calculator thinking “should I lose 25% on this parlay with five legs or 18% ev on this other one with four legs?”. They do not give a flying fuck if they are getting -7.5 or -8.5 unless you put the two side by side in their face. All they understand is that they will make a profit if the Celtics win tonight, and the Celtics are a lock because Tatum is on a hot streak. If they understood any of this, they would not be losing gamblers. They will never ever understand the concept of ev or variance. It’s a disconnect between the way competent and incompetent gamblers think. Incompetent gamblers have different values than competent ones. By definition, they generally do not value making money in the long run. (Winning money and making money are extremely different). Imagine seeing a whale and a good pro playing poker heads up, walking up to the whale and saying “you’re losing 21.4 bb/hr playing this guy, I’m not as good as him so you should play me and lose 14.6 bb/hr”. It’s kind of laughable really. There’s a reason he’s playing the pro and not you. Maybe he likes him better, knows him better, maybe he got there first and doesn’t want to get up and switch games. It’s certainly not because he’s some rational economic agent seeking to minimize negative profits

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

One of the best KZbin comments I have ever gotten - ty for writing and I think I basically agree with everything you are saying. Most optimistic result is probably bad gamblers getting slightly better at easy things like price shopping - kinda like even fish now are probably mucking the 73o UTG, when in Doyle's time they might be limping like 100% UTG

[@Steve-eb8jc]

@@TheRiskTakersPodcast yes somewhat agree with you there. But line shopping for a fish is a bit like couponing at a strip club. Winning and losing in their mind is binary. They want the over. Not the over 213.5, not the over 210, or 220. The over. They want the Chiefs. They want to win a shit ton of money if their 9 leg sgp hits. They will get that on any site and they’re not gonna go build it 6 times. I have seen a small trend of the rec community caring a bit more about lines but to a point. Sure they will bet it on FanDuel if the DraftKings line is worse. But are they gonna go sign up for 10 sites and scan their drivers license and link their bank account to save a 6% edge on firsts touchdown?

[@farrquehussein2350]

See now this should break gambling Twitter 😂

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

LOL - i agree

[@seasonsintheson]

Topo-Chico Blueberry oh yeah!

[@TheRiskTakersPodcast]

The best out there rn