When Will China Invade Taiwan?

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Select footage from the AP Archive

[@PolyMatter]

This video has been available on Nebula since July 7th! Sign up to Nebula to watch other early, exclusive, and Original videos like my exclusive series China, Actually. Get 40% an annual subscription here: go.nebula.tv/polymatter

[@zyansheep]

Ahh so that's why the intro felt familiar.

[@bmeht]

so it's outdated lol

[@danielcaldwell1110]

Taiwan is part of China. Imagine Azores not being part of Portugal as they are all ethnic Portuguese much like Taiwan are ethnic Han Chinese. I'll never understand the people of Taiwan who'd rather side with a genocidal nation known as the U.S versus their brothers. Just rightist logic I guess, a little bit like Ukraine.

[@danielcaldwell1110]

Hawaii should be independent, not Taiwan.

[@bmeht]

@@danielcaldwell1110 ok "Daniel" "Caldwell" sounds super legit

[@calebrichmond_]

I've been living in Taiwan all summer and the sharp increase in videos on Taiwan in the last 3 months has been noticeable at the very least

[@danielcaldwell1110]

Propaganda financed by amurikens coming in nicely. Prepare for another war. Here in Europe we're fed with ameriken policy in our soil and I wish we became closer to the Chinese who have a proven record of being honorable.

[@splashafrica]

As a South african I picked up the same tone over the last 2 years but the global lenses where kinda already on Taiwan before

[@degol5692]

It provides masturbation material for the anti-China brigade, and an easy way to gain views and likes.

[@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@ca6360]

You think Bidens weakness and compromise will not be exploited? I think pre 2024 election they kick it off... why was purchase of China's 2 first aircraft carriers purchased from Ukraine? Any U.S. involvement? Talking politicians or children of? I would be curious.

[@bruh_rick]

As a Taiwanese, I thank videos like these to raise awareness about our situation. I hope we never go to war. Too easy for people without anything at stake to talk whatever shit they want just to sound smart. It's way more tougher to stay alive and prosperous while surrounded by a hostile "neighbor", along with an ambiguous, opportunist "friend". If you want to see what Taiwanese people are up against, just go through the comment thread under this post. I hope yall have a good day, good life, and never need to face the possibilities of war.

[@justADeni]

Wish you peace and prosperity from Czech Republic

[@themusicgaragetmg2330]

The only way to avert war is for the ccp to collapse... unfortunately or fortunately.

[@hamster7548]

I believe in the One china Policy, But the "one China" should be Republic of China. Not Peoples Republic of China.

[@jerryhampton5755]

Don’t worry your fine China an amphibious assault in the modern day with cruise missiles and artillery would be suicide also they lack landing craft and if they tried to press their super tankers into service they would be sitting ducks.

[@England_Is_My_City]

@bruh_rick Do you think that they really cared about us Taiwanese?

[@skidogleb]

This topic has been on my mind a lot and this channel has a really special perspective! Thanks from Utah for staying vigilant. :)

[@RedRomanov]

Seeing how it goes, China has been threatening invasion and throwing red lines all over the place for decades now and they didn't invade. But if the CCP says "We'll never invade we love Taiwan Taiwan is a country :)" that's when people should get real worried

[@semanadelherrero]

If the people of Taiwan dare to declare an independent country, no one can stop it when it perishes, because it is too close to China and too far away from the United States, so it can be blocked and attacked at will.😂

[@gh-lz5oh]

台湾不是一个国家，甚至因为中国共产党他们被踢出联合国

[@R2debo_]

I don't think people realize how difficult Taiwan is to take.

[@hwong1776]

do people realize how ez it would be to send Taiwan into the stone age?

[@kullwarrior]

Do you realize a salvo of missiles fired from China can make 2021 supply chain issue a trivial problem compared to chip shortage with Taiwan attacked? China doesn't need to invade and conquer to hold the world hostage.

[@user-op8fg3ny3j]

As difficult as it would be to suppress and pacify South-East Asia in order to enforce a blockade of the Malacca Straight

[@randomdude4110]

​@@hwong1776For what benefit? The US and Taiwan both have contingency plans to destroy semiconductor plants and make them unusable when China invades. If the Ukraine is anything to go by, the west will simply cut off banking in China like they did with Russia, and what happens next? War is lost.

[@johnmcgill3603]

@@hwong1776 You mean its easy to make Taiwan into like the current China?

[@lily-dw5kn]

There's a well-known saying ' attacking Taiwan is less wiser than buying Taiwan, buying Taiwan is less wiser than deceiving Taiwanese and deceiving Taiwanese is less wiser than intimidating Taiwanese ' that is widely circulates in Chinese communities. It has been regarded as the best guiding principle by Chinese communists that subduing the enemy without real fighting and now they are committed to launching the cognitive battles and develop the nets of the collaborators in Taiwan.

[@thornelderfin]

Well, Chinese communist dictatorship has to be destroyed one way or another.

[@Imbalanxd]

Smart. Took the US 60 years of outright aggression before they learned that one

[@workoutandread]

China basically has nothing Taiwan wants in the context of becoming a new sate of China. How do you sell no democracy and censorship along with a fascist king? You don't at best you can try to undermine it but even then.

[@MayzlWaa]

事实上作为一个中国人从来没有听过这句话 As a Chinese,I swear I had never heard of that😶

[@beng1540]

How's that been working for China? Taiwanese aren't intimidated by the Chinese...

[@blinklost]

your channel n videos help me learned more about history thanks for your researched.

[@HungryWalker]

I think the only timeline China has is when they are 100% sure that they can invade Taiwan successfully, they will invade; however, the timeline is not 100% set and China definitely does not want to send money and troops to the battlefield. This is the worst investment to China's POV. Peaceful unification with spending the least amount of bucks is what China's aiming for.

[@funveeable]

They will invade if Biden gets reelected. Biden has no shady deals in Taiwan and America is already exhausted sending aid to Ukraine. Biden has every reason not to protect Taiwan and every other country in the world will not send aid to Taiwan if the US refuses to do so.

[@tomcatkewell]

Do you think that CCP was even 10% sure before they pushed the UN force back to 38 degree line when then?

[@serriajohn]

It is " liberating Taiwan" , not a invasion, a civil war to liberate Taiwan.

[@GaryGraham-sx4pm]

an independent and prosperous taiwan will outlast the corruption and idiocy of the mainland communist party

[@ffff7164]

Cope

[@jakob_z]

A small correction about the party control timeline. While the DPP did win the presidential election (for the first time), the Kuomintang still had control over the legislature, heavily limiting the power of the DPP. You can see the difference in 2016 when they won both the presidency and the legislature and started doing actions they have been talking about for a long time.

[@eruno_]

At this point DPP are basically like KMT. DPP are too afraid to declare independence.

[@UNSF]

@@eruno_ So true. DPP kind of ditched Taiwan independence and went to take the ROC flag kind of becoming KMT under Chiang Chin-Kuo's days. Where as KMT essentially devolved into CCP and are helping them spread propaganda everyday.

[@willyang4487]

Sooner or later, the KMT will lose its control over the legislature too. Just mark my words.

[@jakob_z]

@@willyang4487 The DDP has had the legislature since 2016. The gap closed a bit in 2020, but the DDP still has majority

[@user-ll6op6id1c]

This is just factually false. DPP has maintained control of the legislature (and all three branches of the central government) since 2016.

[@JacobFosterNeoCon]

This is a really good video that offers a lot of valuable context and coolheaded analysis. A key factor it didn't discuss, however, was Hong Kong. Hong Kong was held up for a while as a model of how Taiwan could peacefully integrate without losing its democratic freedoms. One country two systems could easily become one country three systems, however, the brutal repression of Hong Kong has done a lot to deter Taiwanese interest in integration and put China on a path to either war or defeat.

[@mattizie91]

Exactly this; NEVER trust communist countries.

[@Imbalanxd]

It's not at all obvious what the actual situation in Hong Kong even is. Is your countries news able to give you a clear indication of what's going on in your own country? But then we trust western news to deliver accurate reporting on what's going on in a country that reportedly has a complete lockdown on information.

[@user-hc3kk7qv7o]

Care to elaborate on repression in HK? I'll like to know what media you learnt that from

[@danielcaldwell1110]

By democratic freedom are you talking about the freedom to do as the U.S tells them to? Is that the democratic freedom, as archived and known thoroughly of what the foreign ameriken policy is?

[@meee_5155]

Wow the China shills in the replies of a thoughtful comment I feel bad for you

[@blue6gun]

One issue tho is that military hardware and ammunition don't have an infinite shelf-life. If China is going to commit to such high levels of war material production they have to have a plan to use it, if not for just the sake of internal or regional defense which I find to be unlikely. Power projection on a worldwide level is not a cheap thing to undertake, neither is expending all branches of a countries armed forces simultaneously while investing in a space program, stealth fighter programs, propulsion research and drone warfare. One might say it's to increase foreign export sales but we all know the Chinese don't have a lot of customers lining up to buy their stuff. One might also point out that China is pumping out unproven military hardware at an unsustainable rate, and without a solid plan to put any of it to real-world use would be a very bad investment. Yes, large militaries make a country look strong. It also makes a huge difference when it comes to who the military higher-ups want to be in charge of their nations economy and foreign policy. However no nation can print money from nothing, and no nation...not even one as dishonest towards outsiders as China...can just keep producing more and more military hardware that then ends up largely out of commission from a focus on production over maintainence because numbers are what gets the bonuses and praise. It's something that played a large role in the eventual downfall of the soviet union and if China doesn't backtrack it to some degree they're going to be in a similar boat sooner or later...assuming they don't invade Taiwan before all those shiny new tanks and destroyers rust away 1st.

[@amazingnina5665]

身为中国人感觉你的担心很可笑，你根本不了解中国，更不了解中国军事，你的认知仅限于西方媒体告诉你的

[@Jackspaniel1]

U wrote too much. Less is more.

[@dm9078]

This is an excellent video. Actual nuance in a KZbin story.

[@ronvara2929]

It is an excellent video on China/Taiwan relationship, better than any other videos on youtube on this topic. But it is sitll missing an important part(likely intentionally): the role of US in this relationship. It is quite clear China does not want a war, Taiwan does not want a war, but anyone with some intelligence can see the US is really wanting a war in the taiwan strait. US will not fight for Taiwan, it will give up Taiwan but will sanction China and isolate it from the world economy, like it did to Russia. it sees this as an opportunity to deter China from overtaking it as the most powerful country. This is the reason you see all those war predictions, they really want it.

[@dsw86]

Taiwan is best used within China as a talking point to get people riled up with nationalism. It distracts from many domestic issues (housing, youth unemployment, 3 years of lockdowns, poverty, human trafficking, corruption/gangs affiliated with gov/police, etc.). Bringing up Taiwan and doing military drills shows the people the full might, resolve, and invincibility of the Chinese government, so people continue to have confidence in their rule. Yet each of those domestic systematic issues and the goal of Taiwan unification remain unsolved. Do not get it wrong where I mentioned poverty and unemployment, China is the 2nd largest economy for a reason. However the CPC only needs its current between 3-500 million of its 1.4 billion population to be middle class or above and thus complacent in their rule. 500 million being well off is enough for some foreigners to be convinced poverty isn’t a thing there, yet 900 million remain. Another means for CPC to continue governing in perpetuity. Actually starting this war changes everything as it will hurt the 500 million middle class, and induces unneeded risk to the CPC maybe not looking invincible on the battle field and consequently in public opinion. This is what’s most dangerous to CPC rule, public confidence. Therefore, most likely status quo until (if) CPC is so in danger domestically that it must start this war to get back some patriotism and support. Until then when CPC and DPP are both in power: strong sounding yet non-action vague threats against Taiwan separatists and American imperialists, continued military drills, and sending money to every foreign diplomat for preaching “One China”. That’s all that’s needed by China on the Taiwan issue. For Taiwanese political parties, two sides to preserve status quo: 1. KMT (Blue; same party that got kicked off the mainland, then brainwashed Taiwanese for decades to hate the communists, and promised to retake the mainland): Yell "long live the ROC", "Oppose Taiwan Independence", swear by 1992 Consensus where they get to say "ROC is real China" within Taiwan, yet no longer pursue retaking the mainland or eliminating the PRC. They promote zero "ROC" when they're out on international trips, and are complacent in the PRC being the one internationally recognized China that still pursues eradicating the ROC. KMT can frame this as peaceful, while they're nowhere close to equal footing with the PRC when talking "One China". Many voters interpret this as spineless, in no man's land, and have abandoned the old soldiers and brainwashed Taiwanese that believed they'd retake the mainland; yet they still have a significant voter base. PRC prefers this of course. Trade, tourism, and official dialogue opens; less military drills. Peaceful in the sense no one dies, as well as with optics. 2. DPP (Green; known for its extremist faction that would declare independence and likely cause PRC to launch the war immediately; though the majority faction (in power today) still believes in peace with their own terms): Push internationally for understanding and acknowledgement of the very existance of ROC, which rules over Taiwan/Kinmen/Penghu/Matsu. Sure it is not compatible with "One China", yet it reflects the fact that there really still are Two Chinas, that have each done fine on their own for 70+ years, and the ROC does not actively destabilize regional peace by threatening to eliminate PRC (i.e. civilized). Push for ROC to have equal footing with PRC when resolving differences diplomatically. Of course it's a non-starter for PRC to engage/legitimize ROC on equal footing, but it's not outright independence declaration. PRC can't start a full war but will make for minimal/no diplomatic channels or tourism, less trade, more military drills and antagonization. Still peaceful in the sense no one dies, not so much with optics.

[@SatchelChannel]

Lol china is faring much better than most EU nation and the US domestically, sure they had some problems but claiming they need nationalism to distract people it's pretty American propaganda. The EU has seen nazionalism rise, as well as the american politics. Russia is the common enemy in the EU now, while china is US scapegoat

[@xXxSkyViperxXx]

i can imagine the youth unemployment these days in china and taiwan will mean many will instead join the army maybe

[@gerardojereza7076]

its CCP....not CPC

[@dsw86]

@@gerardojereza7076 pollute both.

[@novat9731]

@@dsw86 No The shift to using "CPC" rather than the correct "CCP" is a deliberate strategy the CCP makes in order to obfuscate its past. If every news article and piece of information online pre 2020 used the "CCP", and everything written after uses "CPC". Then anyone searching for information on the "CPC" after 2020, will find it more difficult to find the crimes of the CCP. Google: CPC human rights = Party propaganda as first search result. Google: CCP human rights = Accusations of forced labor, arbitrary detention, internment camps, torture, sexual abuse, mass surveillance and separation of families. It IS the Chinese Communist Party, CCP.

[@Stixenterprise]

Excellent presentation with insight to the what ifs!

[@howhigh0521]

I’m sick of seeing these charts showing Chinese vs US Navy fleet vessel counts. It’s not about numbers with ships it’s about tonnage and armaments😂

[@cloudol228]

The biggest gap between China and the United States is the submarine, followed by aircraft carriers, destroyers such as combat ships, but the gap is the smallest, and even in the technical level is still ahead.

[@ZavierGonzarles]

Just wanted to note that the sponsor Nebula is fantastic, even if it's a bit slow at times. Lots of interesting content that is well made.

[@whkoh7619]

let's hope this never happens

[@josef7731]

Sadly it's just a matter of when 💀 (We are so fucked.)

[@Tpbraut]

It would be funny tho!!

[@bababababababa6124]

Don’t worry it won’t happen under my watch

[@hate-chan4369]

@@josef7731we aren’t “f_cked 💀” there’s a difference in their hardware looking tough vs actually tough. Russia is a great example of that. Plus Chinas navy, Air Force, army, and rocket force, all work individually for some reason and not with each other. Use Ukraine as example, China would probably be worse too as they have no combat experience

[@loadingnewads]

hopefully Taiwan will surrender and there won’t be a damned war

[@notribadsvault]

I feel like not enough emphasis is put on the abject failure of “one country, two systems” and the breaking of the Sino-British treaty, big reasons why the idea of peaceful unification went out the window. It’s basically impossible for Beijing to convince Taiwan of anything unless the government changes trajectory rapidly.

[@lagrangewei]

there was no treaty for the handover. HK has to be return to China because the lease expired. the one country 2 system is a domestic law of China, China as a soverighty country has the right to change it law. in fact the national security law was already written before 1997. China simply choose not to enforce it. yet the western narrative lied to create a false impression that Beijing change it promise to HK. that was never the case, both because China didn't promise anything, it was just recieving a territory at the end of it legal lease, and the creation of these law were all made well before the handover.

[@SpruceWood-NEG]

Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.

[@wangyaohan8824]

@notri... can you explain the failure? as far as I know: because of the violent protest, china introduce security law which is softer than what UK & US have.

[@Suffer-grow]

True , the “one country two system “was made as a compromise to show Taiwan that China can coexist with Taiwan as long as they accept One China policy. But times has changed now

[@serebii666]

@@lagrangewei Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? There was of course a treaty outlining the handover and subsequent regime that Hong Kong would enjoy. It was the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. It was ratified by both countries on 27 May 1985 and was registered at the United Nations by both governments on 12 June 1985. And it was in that document that had the PRC promise to uphold and keep Hong Kong Basic Law unchanged for at least 50 years after 1997 and establish the One-China-two-systems policy.

[@willyang4487]

As a Chinese mainlander, I hope there’ll be no war between the two sides. However, sometimes certain things are very difficult to prevent and can be quite inevitable.

[@bobs_toys]

It's easy to avoid. All the barbarians in Beijing need to do is accept that people in a country that owes them nothing don't want anything to do with them.

[@willyang4487]

@@bobs_toys that’s pretty “easy” for you to say lol

[@bobs_toys]

@@willyang4487 you'd be surprised at how little effort it takes to do nothing. And that's all the barbarians in Beijing need to do to avoid a war. Nothing.

[@alv4049]

@@bobs_toys We'll unify soon or later. Anglo schizos can complain and speculate all you want, but unity is inevitable. Violence is not necessary, the status quo will be preserved until they're fully integrated economy and then the walls come down. Taiwanese aren't stupid and will concede once the benefits outweigh the negatives.. This is ultimately just a political dispute. It's not a race war like how the Anglos despise the Chinese.

[@User-jr7vf]

@@bobs_toys With the mainland Chinese doing nothing, I see the US increasing its influence and presence in Taiwan more and more, to the point that it becomes a real threat to China's security and stability. In other words, we will have a Russia-Ukraine 2.0.

[@aleeoo7208]

Super insightive video

[@X1GenKaneShiroX]

As a American, I believe in the One China Policy, BUT only in under one condition… One China should be the People’s Republic of China NOT Republic of China.

[@antoniobarbosameillon8911]

Realistically just say they are both two different countries. Though I wouldn’t oppose the only China to be Taiwan.

[@Dnttou0497]

I think maybe you have that backwards? Lol Or you’re a CCP fanboy…

[@willywonka4340]

​@@Dnttou0497he's American alright, like those 2 "Americans" with indigenous Chinese names who joined our military and were recently caught spying for the CCP.😂

[@bunnyfreakz]

Republic just means Government that not monarchy. Are people don't know this?

[@DoctorCyan]

I believe in the One China Policy, where there's just China ruled by the CCP, and then there's also Taiwan which is totally unrelated

[@mmouser2800]

It seems unjust that these events are often presented as isolated incidents without any explanation of their underlying causes. I'm genuinely curious about the motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken during the KMT and DPP timelines. After all, there's almost always a cause driving every effect, and it's unreasonable to make evluations of intent without expanding on the topic even if its brief.

[@eruno_]

this video seems to imply that whenever Taiwanese vote for DPP they are brought closer to war. That's literally CCP (and to a similar degree KMT) propaganda talking point.

[@danielcaldwell1110]

The Capital doesn't like to explain, that's why it spends millions if not billions in keeping it's population below average IQ. The moment we start to rationalize, we'd immediately drop Capitalism for Socialism,

[@eruno_]

@@danielcaldwell1110 Yes Chinese population is very dumb, they believe that Taiwan belongs to them even though they never controlled it.

[@izak5356]

​@@danielcaldwell1110agreed. So many people being exploited by corporations and the ultra wealthy, while voting for parties and policies that perpetuate this exploitation because "socialism bad, capitalism good". As if the only two options are extreme economic inequality under capitalism, or fuckin North Korea/China.

[@mursefaneca]

Socialism doesnt work and I say this as someone from a country in crisos because of it.

[@justNGC604]

Watching this situation play out is an endless source of frustration.

[@LuigiTrapanese]

That fake building for military exercises is the state equivalent of a woodoo doll

[@hamiltonpolice7860]

Lol the amount of "when will China invite Taiwan" videos I've seen the last few months from various KZbinrs

[@OccultDemonCassette]

Is there some type of state department grant to produce content like this, or is this just part of the propaganda wing of the US government passing itself off as if it were independent creators? Honestly, hard to say. The intense level of anti-china propaganda lately has been insane, and it's rapidly racing towards cold-war level anti-soviet propaganda..

[@alpeulpe]

Along with the "30 days for Chinese Collapse" ones

[@Mario123007]

Yeah and imo, I say only polymatters Videos about China are the most informative and non biased ones, real life lore is awesome but his videos about China aren't really correctly informative.

[@iattacku2773]

Doom and gloom gets the most attention

[@thornelderfin]

Exactly as we've been seeing constant videos and news about Russia invading Ukraine... and nobody believed that... and it was to no end, and it was always next week ... until it actually happened, and then none of us was laughting anymore. Do not underestimate irrational dictatorships.

[@brandonavalos7204]

I love your content. Keep the great work 💪🆙

[@micahpolizzi7007]

This was an amazing video.

[@CinemaDemocratica]

I teach English to students in China and there's an aspect of this that Evan has mentioned before, but didn't come up in this video and bears repeating: Much of what Xi says about foreign policy is the equivalent of campaigning, if he had to stand for election. He's better at some things than others, but one thing he is absolute Jedi-level master at, is bundling his own agenda with national patriotism. With this in mind, a case could be made that neither the construction of the model in the desert, nor the release of the video showing how it was attacked, were intended for non-domestic consumption.

[@peterwang5272]

Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.

[@User-jr7vf]

This makes a lot of sense. I noticed long ago that the Taiwanese issue is central for the CCP and hence for China as we know it today. I think some party officials are not as willing to reunify with Taiwan by force, but they must constantly bring up the topic to have internal order in China, and they will ultimately need to actually go for it if they feel like they need to.

[@blitzburn2871]

The more I learn about Taiwan, the place it has found in the world economy and global politics as well as the simple realities of a invasion the more I understand that 'when' is putting the cart before the horse and the key question is 'if'. Because even in ideal conditions, a Chinese invasion would be hard to pull of with a high chance of total military failure, but realistically a invasion would be extremely hard with a immense chance of national disaster.

[@thornelderfin]

Yes, but do not underestimate the suicidal irrationality of dictators like Xi, Putin and Kim. You can have 10 logical arguments why it would be a complete disaster for China... and Xi Jinping will still do it.

[@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@SpruceWood-NEG]

Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.

[@wangyaohan8824]

@blitz... let's not pretend to be military expert, so I ignore your last paragraph. basically PRC and ROC is like Union and Confederate during US civil war.

[@Emilechen]

the mre you learn Taiwan from Western and pro-indepence Taiwanese media, the less you know their real military capacity,

[@freddytang2128]

Is it just me or does this feel like the 500th video produced on this topic, in the past year?

[@alexv3357]

After China threw a tantrum over Pelosi's visit last year, the whole world has been on notice. It's not just you, and it's only the start.

[@verycherrybombr]

US propaganda machine go brrrr

[@mena88]

@@verycherrybombr This isn't propaganda for the U.S. It critiques the US media's hyperbolic and exaggerated response to US military statements, which are targeted towards internal stakeholders. At the same time it compels listeners to see China's possible approach from their perspective, while not supporting its aims.

[@verycherrybombr]

I was referring to the many other videos about this topic that I have watched not specifically this video because I haven't watched it fully yet. @@mena88

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

Its not US propaganda though. Propaganda is specifically from the government. Not random youtube makers who post a video every few weeks. I hate how americans have fallen into the poor practice of giving specific words new meanings that have nothing to do with the word. @@verycherrybombr

[@MrKbtor2]

Another excellent product of quality research and presentation.

[@taiwanplusdocs]

Learn more about the Taiwanese perspective on this matter: kzbin.info/www/bejne/jpPSk5yfnNGqepY

[@bernduelauert3277]

Very good and informative video as usally. Only these imperial units are super confusing.

[@tannr]

Great video but I really wish you'd do more of a conclusion rather than just go straight into the nebula promo but I get why you do it. Videos always feel like they end so abruptly, I get whiplash

[@chumianbjx]

I think this is actually the best part of this channel, presenting numbers quote and facts, doing less comentary. At the end of each video you will have a conclusion yourself.

[@saladmcjones7798]

TLDW: The best approach for Taiwan and the US is to keep calm and carry on.

[@d0fabur5st82]

The US doesn’t want calm it wants to sell weapons

[@dr.woozie7500]

@@singpoopthroawaydid you even watch the video?

[@etm3398]

@@singpoopthroaway tell pelosi to stop traveling to taiwan to get insider news to trade on

[@SpruceWood-NEG]

Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.

[@wangyaohan8824]

taiwan will likely try to calm down, but US will try very hard to make taiwan the ukraine 2.0.

[@chrisconnor8086]

I was expecting to be really frustrated by this video but it was actually done well. Nice

[@bellgrand]

"敢于斗争" means "dare to fight" in English. "斗争" implies fighting or conflict. A term like "奋斗" is more commonly used for "struggle" in the sense of overcoming adversity or some internal force; the most (in)famous example being the Chinese translation of "Mein Kampf."

[@johnyan836]

Why not emphasis love, peace and cooperation? Must the "dare to fight" be injected in the blood of Chinese people ~ the peace loving people.

[@bellgrand]

@@johnyan836 The peace-loving people who support a government who routinely threatens war against the almost 24 million people who live on Taiwan?

[@Kage-jk4pj]

This is in the video 13:04

[@MingdongYang]

@@johnyan836 because it's pep talk to the military. what kind of military in the world talks about love and peace? grow up

[@ulamss5]

It's funny to see "deterrence" used in this context

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

Why?

[@ulamss5]

​@@user-xp5id1kh4r in geopoliticis, the term "deterrence" is usually used by the more vulnerable party to... "deter" conflict initiation from the dominant party. In this case, the dominant party is citing "deterrence" to "deter" the vulnerable party from... ???

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

@@ulamss5 I don't agree with "usually used by the more vulnerable party" part of your definition of deterrence. For example, the US's number one name in the game for the past half century has been "deterrence". Every nation can practice deterrence no matter how small or how large (in terms of power disparity). Or do you mean the irony of it? ie, the fact that a small nation is standing up to a big nation?

[@mayankrawat5961]

When he said “sponsored by China Actually” I was like 😳😳😳😳😳

[@benjamintherogue2421]

If only we had a detailed an analysis of the Ukraine-Russia situation. This is helpful to have in the files in regards to the situation around China.

[@Imbalanxd]

thats like saying analysis of the America-Iraq situation would have been helpful in regards to the Russia situation

[@hughmungus2760]

The Ukraine-Russia situation was simple, Ukraine entering NATO was Russia's red line and all indications were that they were going to cross it in 2022.

[@watchm4ker]

@@hughmungus2760 Well, yeah. Part of their country had been occupied since 2014, and more was being fought over along the border for years. Why wouldn't a country in that position look for allies?

[@hughmungus2760]

@@watchm4ker if there was no US backed coup in 2014. there wouldn't have been an annexation.

[@dizzyreckless5991]

I like turtles. @@watchm4ker

[@canemcave]

if you prepare for a sprint and end up in a marathon, I am not sure if you will get to last to the end

[@gavinmc5285]

i'd walk. why anybody actually runs a marathon in the first place is beyond me.

[@ytubeanon]

I saw a documentary which explained Taiwan's extremely vital role in the world's computer microchip production, (China is being removed from benefitting) America could never give up Taiwan to China at this point

[@coreytaylor5386]

not to mention Taiwan is a massive strategic ally because of its placement and its other technological exports

[@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022]

It's even wider than that, denying Taiwan to Beijing is the easiest way to check Beijing's expansion of influence into the Pacific. Chinese coast often lacks deep waters for submarines to slip in and out easily (without being detected), obtaining Taiwan would change that as their east coast is very suitable for basing submarines with deep waters. Not having Taiwan forces Beijing to have a much weaker trade link to the rest of the world in case of war, having it would seriously empower their position. It goes on and on.

[@DOSFS]

I think Taiwan is more the representation of the current statue-quo that the US (and many others like Japan, SK, and EU) can not let violently change. So yes, they can't and wouldn't give up on Taiwan anytime soon no matter whether microchip production is or isn't focused on Taiwan.

[@dr_arcula]

That is until they grow their own semiconductor business. Once they're not dependent anymore, they wouldn't give two shit about taiwan.

[@Ghettofinger]

@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022I came to say this. As important as computer chips are, we can invest government money to improve TSMC production in the US or prop up Intel, it's not something we can't overcome in a few years. However maintaining the first island chain is far more vital.

[@nickholmes5002]

Love your vids! Keep them coming!!

[@nikolatasev4948]

Wow, incredibly level-headed. Great job!

[@chi-jenyang9752]

This is a text-book prisoners' dilemma. Both China and US prefer peace, but they are more afraid of losing a war. Neither can trust the other to not prepare for war. Therefore, both will prepare for war. As both side building up militariy capabilties, hostilities escalate and the prospect of war become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mutual destruction will be the most likely outcome.

[@KuangWen0]

It Is not. China does not want to fight with America. It Is America who wants hegemony and wants to contain China. The situation benifits US weapon industry.

[@AanandBajaj]

but why will one side even go to war iff the costs arre too high?

[@chi-jenyang9752]

@@AanandBajajBecause the one that initiate the war enjoy the benefit of surprise, which increase its chance of winning. It might also expect the other to back off because the high costs of war.

[@someonespotatohmm9513]

@@chi-jenyang9752 This is only true if you disregard cooperation as a posibility. Something both poo countries share.

[@dizzyreckless5991]

At what time in history has the US preferred peace? 84 coups in 70 years...that's across approximately 64 countries. Now the game is proxy wars...have some dupe and paid for shill die for you so you gain the financial reward from resources theft and financialisation. Check Ukraine for a great example of this model.

[@ibrahimx9560]

When he said sponsored by china I was so flustered, like it can't be a joke am I on the right channel 😆.

[@loanqypol6797]

It make me cringe

[@treesheeptw]

I am Taiwanese, just here to say that we hear all kinds of rumors pretty often, we are sore of those discussions, and we all know it's not happening too soon unless the Chinese lose their minds. Other problems are still present in mainland China, so it's not a good timing. Also, Taiwan is too crucial in the chip industry for them to afford, because they will also be affected once our chip manufacturing halts. Since the US is already banning chip manufacturing equipment from exporting to China, if we stop making chips, China will likely be the one affected the most. Also, the most effective way to make Taiwan surrender might be announcing our nearby seas as missile test sites. Since our energy relies heavily on coal imports and our economy on chip exports, with no ships willing to take the risk to enter our sea, we will probably surrender because we can't survive on our own.

[@user-tx3xy7lw6w]

Plus why would China want to invade itself

[@astroch]

Its just american propaganda

[@bohba13]

If that were the case we (the US) would probably just park a few DDGs in the immediate area packed to the gills with intercept missiles. Fucking with international trade is a pretty surefire way to get the USN involved.

[@matttzerminator]

The same was said for Ukraine but Russia still went ahead and invaded. Stay vigilant and do your part!

[@second2none914]

If you know, in general how do the people of Taiwan feel about the EU, particularly france and their recent controversy vis a vis Taiwan and their moves to block a NATO office in Japan. In general it seems France views china as a hedge to American hegemony and as a result has been subtly undermining Americas position in the region including with Taiwan. Whereas Eastern Europe views America as their security guarantor so follow americas lead on geopolitical issues. Which is why they have taken such an pro Taiwan, anti-China approach. I’ve been trying to find about the euro-Taiwan relationship particularly France-Taiwan but it is always only presented through the European pov.

[@UnspokenOldOne]

The problem I see that is holding China back is three fold: 1. They lack the transports necessary to attempt this invasion, it's why the action has been referred to as the "Million Man Swim". As it stands most of China's fleet is short range ships that lack the ferrying capacity to actually conduct this invasion. They simply can't get enough soldiers across the water to get there. 2. A significant amount of China's oil comes via a single pipe in the Indian Ocean with the rest being shipped through a single waterway. It would take a minute fraction of the US navy to camp out over that pipe or restrict access through the straight to China to cut off the majority of China's oil. 3. Ukraine. The successful defense of Ukraine coupled with the widescale sanctions & boycotts have demonstrated to China that they are not guaranteed victory and the price of the effort will likely cripple them. Russia can weather the storm to an extent but China's economy is far more reliant on the international market. They would essentially doom themselves. Could they still invade? Sure. Will it be successful? Probably not. But at least in this way we can see the few things that are likely holding China back.

[@davyliyang]

What's holding china back is why invading Taiwan just to destroy it. Taiwan doesn't hold resources like Ukraine do, they don't even have fresh water. The chips factory doesn't do any good if you destroy them. And the resources spend on war can easily create their own chips. What china wants to do is unify with taiwan peacefully, may take centuries if it has to. This won't work if Taiwan claim indepdent. So everyone was happy with the status quo until American gets invovled.

[@peterwang5272]

Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.

[@User-jr7vf]

A fourth point to be added, is China is living its most prosperous moment in history, since the republic was founded. It will not make sense to attempt such an adventure that might lead them to disaster, as you mentioned. They are expected to become the world's number 1 economy by the coming decade. They will be stronger and more powerful than the US. So they want to wait until that day to attempt any military operation in Taiwan. But of course the US knowing this will try to provoke the Chinese into an attack on Taiwan right now, so the US can put all of its allies against China, just like they are doing to Russia because it would be perfect for the US to weaken China militarily and economically at present time.

[@UnspokenOldOne]

@@User-jr7vf I agree somewhat in that China has 0 motivations to risk their highly successful moment on an attempted invasion of Taiwan but there are a wide range of problems facing China that will likely hold it back from becoming the leading global economy, political maneuvering by the west aside. China would still need to build up a massive quantity of ships, infrastructure, secure an oil source that doesn't require shipping to the country, while dealing with the myriad of growing issues it has. It just doesn't seem realistic that the time will ever line up that China will be in a "good" position to invade.

[@robertfoster347]

If the general’s memo is for internal, then he probably views it as true. The argument that the fear mongering is for funding would mean they would take a tougher tone externally than internally.

[@emml6677]

Bro, in two weeks I’m moving to Taiwan. Don’t scare me like that. XD

[@geospliced]

They see Taiwan as its own. Probably won't use more force than necessary to re-unify with them, so you're probably safe.

[@CarrotConsumer]

That's great until it becomes a protracted war.

[@J_X999]

How can you afford it? Most young people in Taiwan can barely afford a "shoebox" apartment. Same story in places like Hong Kong and Korea.

[@Li.Meng.]

​@@J_X999在其他城市买房子很便宜

[@kill_urself]

​@@Li.Meng.aren't you a Chinese how did you bypass the firewall.

[@Leonlion0305]

13:28 "Having a larger, stronger military is useful whether or not it fights" Is also very true for Taiwan. A couple of things that Former President Ma did during his presidency were 1. Reduce conscription from 1 year to 4 months. On the surface, it just seemed like an easy policy to win young people over. However, the more insidious intent could be to make Taiwanese army, on average, less experienced and less ready to fight. 2. Uproot *ALL* intelligence services undercover in China. This is more obviously a stupid policy and want to weaken Taiwan. Even if China isn't aggressive, it would be necessary to have eyes on neighboring countries, especially if it is stronger. That's just how small countries can survive. 16:57 Also very true that Taiwan is under psychological warfare. Every so often I see disinformation and fact-check/clarification statements from the government flying around in social media. A lot of those misinformation and disinformation are most likely originated from China. The main idea is always to create distrust between the civilians and the government. This is to make civilians unwilling to cooperate once if China decide to invade. Nothing is harder to work with than a disobedient general public.

[@willywonka4340]

your comments should be getting more upvotes! Indeed this is exactly what's going on over there on that island.

[@nunyabiznes33]

How was that ex president NOT charged with treason? Edit: Added "NOT"

[@willywonka4340]

@@nunyabiznes33 you mean, how was that ex-president (Ma Ing-Jeou) *NOT* charged with treason? Good point and great question. I wondered that myself, too.

[@nunyabiznes33]

@@willywonka4340 forgot the NOT. YT's interface keep getting worse with each update. Sometimes I'd only notice something missing after I post if or if someone pointed it out. And when editing it just so tiny. 😅

[@willywonka4340]

@@nunyabiznes33 same here, that's why I have to go back and proofread every time. As careful as I've been lately, I'd still end up editing my comments anyway lol.

[@jayamiheiyang1602]

Watched this on Nebula but still wanted to leave a comment for the algorithm 👍

[@silly_fish]

"Sponsored by China..." me: huh? "...Actually" me: phew

[@kurousagi8155]

It would be difficult to invade Taiwan. Much more difficult for China to invade Taiwan than for Russia to invade Ukraine. Since Taiwan is an island, this means that China’s ground forces are limited to whatever air and sea transport are available. Both of which would be vulnerable to either GBAD or anti-ship missiles/submarines respectively. Chinese combat aviation also has to have the numbers to confront Taiwan, the USA, and possibly Japan. While also being powerful and numerous enough to deter Indian and Vietnamese forces from taking advantage of the situation. Many Chinese commenters have high confidence in the accuracy of their cruise missiles to hit and disable Taiwanese airfields. However, even if their confidence is well placed, there are questions about Chinese stockpiles of those expensive missiles . As demonstrated in Ukraine, simply hitting an airfield is not enough to prevent combat sorties. You need to hit the airfield repeatedly until you take the airfield or destroy all the combat aviation.

[@qiang2884]

If you know how weak and untrained the Taiwanese military is, it's almost certain that the Chinese military could finish the invasion pretty quickly if they are on a 1 on 1 fight. That's exactly the reason the US and other allies of Taiwan are preparing and building bases. The major issue though is China is too close to Taiwan and the US is too far from it, so for China they may bet on occupying Taiwan before the others arrive.

[@kurousagi8155]

@@qiang2884 they’re not that weak. The Taiwanese military is as large as Ukraine’s was prewar. They got more aviation, armored vehicles, and naval vessels than Ukraine did. It is also highly unlikely that China could finish the war quickly since the Chinese military, despite its size, has logistical constraints far beyond what Russia had to deal with in Ukraine.

[@qiang2884]

@@kurousagi8155 and they are as corrupt and under trained as Russians. A lot of the soldiers are conscripts with extremely low morale. In the meantime, China has the 2nd largest military, no conscripts(currently), and tons of missiles pointed at Taiwan. The soldiers are also basically brainwashed so they don't mind sacrifice. If the Chinese are half as good as on paper, Taiwan would lose easily. The thing that used to block mainland China from invading is the sea, and now they are spending a lot of money on building navy so logistics would no longer be a problem soon.

[@qiang2884]

@@kurousagi8155 I just looked at the numbers again, and the Chinese army are at least 5 times and at most 20 times stronger on every aspect of military forces. I think the main issue for China would not be attacking Taiwan, but to transport its army to Fujian in a short time. If the US sees this kind of behavior, they will know what will happen and start reacting, but still the main US force is very far from Taiwan.

[@TheMysteryDriver]

@@qiang2884you don't need tons of soldiers when you're sinking the ships transporting them.

[@TheCat48488]

"We will have Taiwan!" "When will we have Taiwan?" "To gulag with you!" Somewhere in ccp politburo, probably

[@dsw86]

If you can’t be vague like us, then you’re a fake and fraud to the Chinese cause

[@J_X999]

Chinese politicians know what's going on. I doubt they'd need to ask at this point.

[@Giles20]

That would be funny ha ha.

[@urbanfutures]

This is a very interesting and thought-provoking video about the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate the analysis and insights from the experts and commentators, as well as the historical and geopolitical context provided by the video. I think this is a very important and complex issue that affects not only the people of Taiwan and China, but also the regional and global stability and security. I hope that the tensions can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically, and that the rights and interests of all parties can be respected and protected. I also hope that the international community can play a constructive role in supporting dialogue and cooperation, and preventing conflict and violence. Thank you for making this video and sharing it with us. 👍🏻😊

[@lxue5518]

no international can decide China's boarder and land

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@lxue5518 Lol you're replying to a banal and probably AI-generated comment. He's just advertising his channel.

[@andrewlyon9292]

After living in Taiwan for the better part of a decade, I can say that I’m sick of everyone acting like an invasion is “inevitable.”China would be a FOOL to ever try to invade for dozens of reasons, however they would be smart to keep saying they were going to do it and never actually do it. Additionally, China holding Taiwan would be at minimum a 5 year nightmare of sabotage and resistance fighting. Not to mention that the entire time they’d be under horrible economic sanctions that would cripple their economy. So why exactly is this “imminent” again?

[@bobs_toys]

Your mistake here is looking at what's good for China. No one cares about what's good for China. People barely care about what's good for the CCP. All that matters is the CCP's leadership. If they think war will give them another few months in power, they'll go for it.

[@someonespotatohmm9513]

Yea this thinking worked great for Ukraine didn't it?

[@bobs_toys]

@@someonespotatohmm9513 especially with a leader who's being told the Taiwanese people desperately want to be under his BS artist treaty breaking control freak leadership. From what I saw of how utterly useless they are at understanding anything they can't imprison, it wouldn't surprise me if Pooh Bear is brainless enough to believe it

[@andrewlyon9292]

Vastly different situation as Taiwan was never actually controlled by China at any point in history@@someonespotatohmm9513

[@graham1034]

The main rationale in I've read in most discussions about an invasion hinges on how committed China is to annexing Taiwan. If they really do have it as their highest level goal then that leads to a question of timing. And the window for invasion will never be more open then in the next few years.

[@wade2112]

If the 3 gorges dam is broken, it will flood 33% of China's economy, including Shanghai. Taiwan can do this on their own basically, so basically they will never invade anyone who can do that

[@TheMysteryDriver]

Realistically in the 2030s they'll be ready to actually do an invasion. They'll have economically isolated themselves and brought their military up to a standard to go toe to toe with the US and allies. Currently they couldn't do that.

[@TAIWANPARTOFCHINA]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@SpruceWood-NEG]

Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.

[@wangyaohan8824]

china wil never invade if no red lines ever crossed. basically taiwan set the time, by their own will or by US' command.

[@Gepap3]

I always find the comment about how one can't know how good the PRC military is because it hasn't fought a major war since 1979 a bit disingenuous, because it is never applied to everyone else in East or South East Asia, for whom the same claim is also true. The South Korean military hasn't fought in major war since Vietnam. Japan hasn't fought anything since 1945. ROC forces haven't also fought any major engagements since the 1950's, really. And yet their ability to fight is never questioned in the same manner.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Because the PRC is the presumed aggressor, and invading is almost always harder than defending.

[@clivestaples244]

US training vs commie man meat wave...all our allies are part of the greatest military doctrine in the world. Ukraine had our help and incorporated our doctrine and training methods after 2014. Equal arms and no nukes...Russia would be part of ukraine rt now.

[@etm3398]

and how taiwan is an impenetrable fortress because look at afhagnistan.

[@J_X999]

​@@clivestaples244 US military training doesn't mean combat experience. Watch and listen to his video.

[@Gepap3]

@clivestaples244 the sad part is you are probably stupid enough to believe your own crap.

[@rwky]

There are more mentions in this video of Nebula than the China / Taiwan topic...

[@heshengxing2304]

I’d like to check the nebula contents. It is the first time I ever see someone else say they think China’s censorship becomes both more and less strict. This actually happened for a while. 😂

[@OccultDemonCassette]

IF more than When.

[@dugiejoness5197]

A Chinese proverb says: "If you are strong, show your strength, let the enemy think you are weak. If you are weak, show that you are strong, let the enemy fear you."

[@yydsikun]

导弹，装甲，像下饺子的玩具小船船不会骗你，军费也不会❤

[@qiang2884]

Said by a wise person. Our leader is not wise however.

[@Emilechen]

​​@@yydsikun中國大陸這恐怖的民用工業和軍工超強能力，只要有腦的人之應該明白，中國哪怕在和平時期都能給軍艦下餃子，想象下打仗是中國開足馬力大量生產武器的場面？ 然後一群天真的人卻幻想台灣有多強，

[@DFishFan]

Nebula looks great!

[@atriqxzonconsole8984]

This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.

[@MemoryofSouthVietnam]

Well let's just hope that the failure of the Ukraine War has put off China from invading Taiwan, especially considering that amphibious landings are one of the most difficult operations to execute.

[@bohba13]

Especially when you consider that it is highly likely that the US will get directly involved due to strategic interests. (microchips) The fact that the US is persuing a generational leap in both ground and ship based fighters, and deploying a palletised system for deploying ASMs in bulk should tell you what our projected level of involvement will be.

[@MemoryofSouthVietnam]

@@bohba13 Lol I suppose that the Taiwanese threat to destroy their own microchip facilities in invasion is not only a deterrent against China but also a chain to pull in the US as well haha

[@bohba13]

@@MemoryofSouthVietnam when you have a military as tech-heavy as the US that's probably the case.

[@workoutandread]

@@MemoryofSouthVietnam it's a given that if a war starts those factories are basically done. Those things are not coming out of the war in one piece not matter who wins.

[@thornelderfin]

You put too much faith in Xi Jinping's intelligence and rationality.

[@r107560sl]

Can't you make the long story short? When???

[@midimusicforever]

I hope the war never happens.

[@allensu9363]

Americans, who know little about Taiwan, seem to forget that a Declaration of Independence requires a constitutional amendment and referendum. Taiwan would not quickly declare independence, it’d be a slow process. Arguably, the PRC isn’t the only thing preventing a deceleration of independence.

[@eruno_]

The only two forces preventing full institutionalisation of Taiwanese republic are CCP (with military force) and their local lackeys KMT (with political force). KMT would sell their own family for Chinese money.

[@TechieWidget]

I doubt Taiwan would be able to declare independence easily. Not with the Kuomintang sitting in the Legislative Yuan and wanting the Republic of China to continue existing & maintaining status quo.

[@economicsinaction]

We may not know when and if China will invade Taiwan, but there is a lot of semiconductor investment taking place outside the island now !

[@lembitmoislane.]

The ending of the semiconductor monoploy while great news for so many of us, is a serious risk for Taiwan as the huge economic motiive to preserve itself with other’s help will be gone. Hopefully morals, the statragitic limiting of the CCP, and the rise of economic ties in other areas will be enough to maintain and grow Taiwan’s ties with others.

[@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022]

Not all investment is going outside Taiwan. The bulk of TSMC investment is still in Taiwan and TSMC is by far the leading edge manufacturer of semiconductor, especially high end ones (like 90% of the market). What TSMC is building in Arizona will manufacture 3nm which is currently the bleeding edge. But it is a factory being built to manufacture today's top of the line chips, so it ain't gonna be bleeding edge when it comes online in like 2024. Factories in Taiwan are slated for 1nm. In total, TSMC makes about 2.7 million wafers per month (wafers which then go on to be "cut" into smaller parts that then are the heart of the product). Arizona will make about 100k of that. Tho that 2.7 million likely does include a lot of the lower end chips as well, the us production is still not mammoth.

[@dsw86]

The most advanced ones will still be made in Taiwan. Korea is closest to catching up there but still need to figure how to mass produce them at Taiwan’s capacity. On Arizona, Americans need to realize the amount of Taiwanese experts they need just to build, maintain, and operate the factory because America outsourced all that know-how and experience to Asia decades ago. Then we talk about work ethic and culture, it’s a huge gap before you’ll be able to supersede Taiwan in mass production. You don’t just work a comfy 9-5 and sitting there watching the ASML machine do everything.

[@Li.Meng.]

会不会是美国和中国合作一起抽空台湾呢

[@kirovfactory]

all depends on how the China-US economy stalemate plays out. if you keep on closing the gap between you and your opponent in economy and military as it has been for the past decade, time is always on your side. however, whether China can keep this trend or not has its uncertainties. that points to the statement at 6:31 being wrong. China's best hope is keep acquiring more substantial military assets than the US with military expenditure at lower % of GDP thanks to higher purchasing parity and closing tech gap. As long as it continues, the US will have to provoke really hard for a war or face the inevitable inability to defend Taiwan.

[@Ushio01]

Honestly China having more smaller ships is a big threat since they aren't that small and fewer bigger ships didn't help Germany or Japan when the US built several hundred destroyers in WW2.

[@TecTitan]

It's kinda like a guy glaring at another guy and putting both of his fists up to roll them around like a boxer And the saddest thing is the vast majority of America literally won't care because our politics are only concerned with the most impossibly vain unimportant dribble baby shit possible.

[@nunyabiznes33]

Gotta keep them blabbering about skin color and sexual preferences.

[@turtlenecksarepoggers]

Whether or not the CCP is genuinely planning an invasion, the US needs to continue supplying Taiwan with deterrence capabilities, making conflict even less appeasing than it already is. There are three main strategic fields that Taiwan must prioritize: The readiness and capabilities of ground forces; The needed equipment to counter the initial PRC air dominance in the early days of the war (delaying long enough for US forces to engage); And finally, countering PRC naval capabilities, making it so Taiwan can deter any attempted naval landings (utilizing anti-ship missiles and other equipment). If the PRC fails to gain aerial superiority, it is practically impossible to create a beachhead without heavy casualties. However, if the US fails to act, Taiwan will fall.

[@clivestaples244]

Nukes...we've prolly have that set to go.

[@lagrangewei]

the reason why US always has doubt about arming Taiwan is because the Taiwan army is pro China. most of the PLA were defected from the ROC army. just recently an ROC soldier swim to the mainland and defected. the army don't support independence, they want to live.

[@Li.Meng.]

美国也有敌人 我们也可以武装美国的敌人

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@clivestaples244 Lol, that'd be suicide. 😅😂🤣

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

None of these vaunted 'strategic fields' make much difference to the most likely form of attack - a blockade. China isn't preparing to fight Taiwan - they already assume the US will intervene and are preparing to fight them. For Taiwan all they need do is wait.

[@The88Cheat]

PolyMatter videos are always fire.

[@0utc4st1985]

There's three things different from the early 2000s until today. One is that the Chinese Navy is far more powerful than it was, they've enacted a crash shipbuilding program which has seen their fleet expand rapidly. Two is that their economy is faltering, they've spent the last 15 years blowing the biggest asset bubble in history which is now coming down, a serious economic downturn is dangerous for the regime. Three is that the US isn't the same nation it was 20 years ago. Today the US is the most divided it has been since the 1850s and a civil war isn't off the table, which makes the next two years the ideal window of opportunity a play on Taiwan that they might not have again. Furthermore there are many other signs such as the build up of Chinese blood banks that are a very strong indicator that an invasion is going to be sooner rather than later. I hope I'm wrong............

[@ferrariguy8278]

Ambiguity has to be exploited either way. More weapons to Taiwan, more focus on the South China Sea. It works in reverse too, and is just as required. Then again everyone thought Russia invading Ukraine would never happen and was crazy... except for the USA which go it right.

[@user-ho2hg1pf3k]

所以你支持乌克兰人屠杀俄罗斯人

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Considering the US has got plenty wrong before, and is the other major party held responsible for the war in Ukraine in the first place, saying they 'got it right' is disingenuous. Like an insider trader getting the movement of a particular stock right.

[@user-cx9nc4pj8w]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn saying "America bad" is far easier than actually thinking about it isn't it? Because that and actual research would reveal that this is not about America, it's about Russia and it desperately trying to prove itself as still a great power that rightfully controls eastern europe, according to their official channels they show actual Russians, instead of the ones for retarded or fascist westerners

[@turtlenecksarepoggers]

The problem for the PRC is that if they invaded, they would have to bare the full risks of a war with the United States. US friendly nations and allies (most of which who would cease business with China), account for approximately 50% - 60% of Chinese exports, and give or take 30% - 35% of Chinese imports. Such an economic blow would be impossible to recover from. The US and the West would take a significant financial hit, but will fair far better than China will. They will lose a lot of business in the short term, but with the right maneuvering, they will be able to relocate a lot of their business to such nations as India. Not to mention the deaths of millions, excluding the use of nuclear weapons. I think that all this points towards political rallying, creating a distraction from the failures China has suffered in recent years, which would make any leader in the CCP's position question if they have as strong of a hold on the country as they thought, given the ongoing cases of civil unrest in the nation.

[@TheMysteryDriver]

Yup. That's why China has been moving to become economically self reliant. Really it'll be in the 30s or 40s.

[@turtlenecksarepoggers]

​@@TheMysteryDriver Economic self reliance is extremely difficult for any country, let alone China. According to the World Bank, Chinese exports account for about 20% of its GDP. Without Western nations outsourcing labor to China, the country will collapse, or at least the standard of living. People in China are struggling to find jobs as it is, and if all those factories shut down for good, people from all economic backgrounds in China will suffer financially.

[@TheMysteryDriver]

@@turtlenecksarepoggers that's why it isn't happening tomorrow and instead in 10-20 years

[@etm3398]

US gave all its missiles to ukraine non left for taiwan

[@lagrangewei]

US is delusional if it think most of the world will sanction China when we refuse to even sanction Russia. just because we are friendly with US doesn't mean we are US slaves.

[@waylaidsavant]

Tremendous insights

[@austinchen1004]

PolyMatter: Sponsored by “CHINA” 2:46 Me: WTF PolyMatter: “-Actually” Me: 😅

[@b1walker]

While I understand what you’re saying - I lived in China from 2004-2006. China in its current and economic and social circumstance, with Xi as it’s leader is not the same as prior administrations. That said, I don’t feel this is imminent - but the likelihood increases with decoupling and deepening social/economic/political troubles/crises.

[@semanadelherrero]

😂😂As a Chinese, I just want to say that it's a good thing for you idiots to go abroad, and it's better for the country if the garbage goes away.

[@PGproductionsHD]

RealLifeLore, Wendover and now you in a span of 15 minutes

[@mehdihassan8316]

same for me 😊

[@randomdude8877]

Almost like those videos where all the news networks talk about the same thing.

[@vincenttt8289]

@@randomdude8877 To be fair, RLL and Wendover are made by the same guys.

[@romangiertych5198]

@@vincenttt8289 Not really, they're friends but different people.

[@danieldowding]

Could you do a video on the Venezuela and Guyana dispute?

[@442484184]

To be more accurate, Taiwan (or ROC) and Mainland China (or PRC) are still in civil war. Neither party has declared cease war yet. So technically it is not China "taking over" Taiwan, it's just who wins the war at last. Likewise, Taiwan could also "take over" China at its free will.

[@yopyop3241]

It stopped being a civil war decades ago when the two sides of the Strait developed separate national identities.

[@pro-libertatibus]

Even though "90% of the world's largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait" the alternative route does not necessarily involve taking the longer route through Indonesia. After all, having passed through the true chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, northbound ships could sail to the east of Taiwan. Or are you assuming that closing the Taiwan Strait would necessarily involve blockade of the Strait of Malacca?

[@johnyan836]

China must think twice the consequences of blockade Taiwan Strait. If no Middle East crude oil can reach the shore of China, what would be the outcome?

[@pro-libertatibus]

@@johnyan836 Yup. That's why they are stockpiling Russian oil. The Hudson Institute recently uploaded a video called "China Prepares for War: A Timeline". War would be folly, but we should never underestimate what authoritarians will attempt in order to cling to undeserved power.

[@miaorenfeng1]

@@johnyan836 The result would be that China would destroy all refineries on American soil with intercontinental missiles

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@johnyan836 There are overland routes. China isn't an island, Taiwan is. And btw, so is Japan...Also closing the Strait of Malacca necessarily involves either getting the approval of half a dozen countries in the region - who would be voting against their own interests as it would hurt their economies more - or forcing them to comply, thereby involving half a dozen neutral countries in your war. Also looks incredibly cowardly to do that just to avoid entering the lion's den and fighting them yourself.

[@johnyan836]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Why vote when there are aircraft carrierS.

[@allensu9363]

I do feel like Americans are a little bit too certain about war after Ukraine. It’s important to understand war would be economically disastrous for China. Not to say it’s impossible, but as of now China can’t win easily and war would be against china’s interests.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Ukraine was against Russia's interests too.

[@clivestaples244]

Putin...fafo.

[@kudosjp1]

China's extended covid lockdowns were also economically disastrous. It's very unwise to make predictions based on rational behavior out of a government who unanimously broke tradition and reelected xi for an unprecedented third term. Unanimous being the key word here.

[@Li.Meng.]

如果中国战败 中国以后会做什么？ 我相信中国会全力以赴的报复美国！

[@watchm4ker]

By many accounts, not even the Russian military believed they were invading Ukraine - they assumed they were gathering as a show of force, and a reminder, not a full invasion. Then the orders came down to move in, and things quickly fell apart. With everyone taken so far by surprise, it's no wonder everyone's wondering if Xi is going to make a similarly unexpected - and inadvisable - decision.

[@jackylin2388]

blessing to those stuck between the big powers

[@hufe223]

Genuinely curious since when did they start put china and taiwan in the same sentence like that in the english media? Back in the 1950s they probably used words like communists and free china. Was it after 1971 or 1979? Or was this a relatively recent development?

[@nix-be9rj]

does polymatter actually speak/read chinese? just curious

[@vschmerz]

I highly doubt that

[@user-xp5id1kh4r]

Why does that matter? Did he get something factually incorrect that could have been caught otherwise?

[@nix-be9rj]

@@user-xp5id1kh4r just curious as to how he conducts his research

[@etm3398]

just cia talking points

[@hwg5039]

@@user-xp5id1kh4r Guess which side the English sources are heavily biased towards?

[@aarontinsley612]

Really complicated way to remake the same video 10 times

[@choe7429]

From 1958 to 1979, the CCP attacked the small island of Taiwan - Kinmen. Kinmen is 6 kilometers away from China, while Taiwan is 277 kilometers away from Kinmen. The most intense battle was between August 23 and October 5, 1958. The ground artillery fired 100,000 to 200,000 rounds for the first time, and then fired 1,000 rounds every day. Then it was not until January 1, 1979, the day of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States, that the shelling was stopped.

[@watchandthink763]

Taiwan has never been recognized as a country by the international community. In fact, decades ago, it was still competing with the mainland for the title of legitimate China. Its full name is ROC (Republic Of China) and Taiwan is just the name of an island. I know that many people here like to compare it with Ukraine, but obviously, these are two completely different situations.

[@PlautusScipio]

Its not recognized officially to appease China. Everyone knows that for all intents and purposes it is an independent country.

[@Imbalanxd]

@@PlautusScipio it cant really be recognised as an independent country. If it is, then which is the real China? Taiwan lays claim to the chinese mainland, and China lays claim to the island of Taiwan. To recognise both is to recognise neither.

[@PlautusScipio]

@@Imbalanxd I dont think Taiwan is as fixated on being the "real" China anymore, they just want to maintain independence.

[@Imbalanxd]

@@PlautusScipio Yeah, purely for practical and political reasons. They cant remain the worlds darling if its revealed that their ruling party was a dictatorship till the 90s and that they have their own, more expansive 9 dash line. Taiwan isnt who you think they are. America is the best publicity agent in the world, just look at how clean they made Israel look for decades.

[@watchandthink763]

@@PlautusScipio If countries were distinguished by their intentions and purposes, there would not be only more than 200 countries in the world, nor would there be such a stable international situation.

[@theconqueringram5295]

The news media needs to stop being so alarmist.

[@PKMNFan4664]

0:54 I was about to say that it reminded me of Kijong-dong...

[@OppressedSince1997]

i'm lovin the 60 fps

[@hanwon895]

I am Taiwanese. The China air fighter invade the border of Taiwan everyday.Thepurpose of China's invasion of Taiwan is to build Taiwan into a military base for future wars against Japan and the United States, and to serve as a springboard for China to break through the first island chain defense line. Taiwan and Japan are strategically located as a community with a shared future. It is necessary for the two countries to cooperate in the military and establish a military alliance.

[@user-ep6fm5zt3t]

笑死

[@user-pr6hx6qu8x]

以前国民党在南昌被打下来过你知道吗？没有飞台北上空已经很客气了

[@yellowbees111]

This is so ridiculous.

[@SatelliteTorifune]

那我們的軍機為什麼不把共軍機打下來啊😢

[@user-pr6hx6qu8x]

@@SatelliteTorifune 打下来正好美国可以拿你当肉盾？借刀杀人

[@redstream1237]

Why is everyone making videos about Taiwan?

[@rurutuM]

The Deep State wants war

[@OccultDemonCassette]

It's essentially cold-war 2 propaganda. This type of stuff was being fed to the public constantly about the soviets before the 90s.

[@ams6850]

Can you make a video on the border crisis between India and china???

[@jeffmorris5802]

A lot of people said a lot of the exact same stuff about Russia and Ukraine. Look how that ended up. Moral of the story - don't trust authoritarians.

[@francovera5876]

If this continues, i might have to get involved.

[@bababababababa6124]

What will you do?? 😨

[@CarrotConsumer]

Watch out China

[@LucidFL]

Oh shit

[@SterbsMcGurbs]

Say your prayers, everyone. The world as we know it may end

[@tetraxis3011]

Oh no. We are doomed if this happens.