Which MPs will lose their seat? | Election 2024 | New Statesman

Who will be this year’s “Portillo moment”? We answer your questions.
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A predicted Conservative “super-defeat” would see some prominent Tories lose their seats - including members of Rishi Sunak’s cabinet. Could Chancellor Jeremy Hunt be ousted in Surrey? Will Penny Mordaunt be unseated in Portsmouth?
George Eaton and Rachel Cunliffe take listener questions on the 2024 UK general election, including a question on which Tory MPs are likely to leave parliament after the election on July 4.
See our analysis of the latest election polls on State of the Nation from the New Statesman: sotn.newstates...
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[@iansanderson2567]

In the 1980s, I worked with someone whose father who had mobility issues used to get the Tory Party to pick him up and take him to the polling station and back the conservative club for tea and cake. Then they would take him home. He voted Labour every time

[@BoyeeSmudger]

As a younger lad I joined my local tory club for the full size snooker tables, there was also cheaper booze which was nice.

[@lizdocherty3067]

😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@SamInSomerset]

They would not have cared, back then civic duty meant something

[@SP-eo1vl]

I used to live in a constituency with a high level of accommodation for elderly and disabled where we arranged to pick up voters to go and vote and we never asked how they were likely to vote. It wasn't the important factor. Getting them to the polling station was. That was the Labour Party.

[@GigiDavis-u6d]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@matthewsemple]

The Get Brexit Done is not a tick - there was a huge list of promises associated with that action. The deal was "Leave the EU and you'll get all this good stuff" - not "We've left the EU but we cannot do any of the promises" And of course for the many that knew it would be a disaster, it's a double fail because of what was lost for nothing gained.

[@aclark903]

Meanwhile the EU moves right cos they see Britain got it right.

[@harveybrown37]

​@@aclark903Absolute Twaddle

[@ambivalentsheep]

​@@aclark903They've moved to the right on non European immigration, but almost every far right party in the EU have dropped their policy to leave the EU seeing just how disastrous it was for the UK.

[@aclark903]

@@ambivalentsheep The lockdown & Ukraine were disastrous: Brexit is not at all a disaster. Wake up!

[@daydays12]

@@harveybrown37 agree! It has nothing to do with it, you are right.

[@jamesdarroch4844]

It may be a stretch, but hoping we can rid ourselves of James Cleverly here in Braintree!! 👌

[@michellebarbour5777]

Neighbours and cake! Good luck.

[@jonescrusher1]

It's a special kind of person who would willingly re-elect Truss

[@simongleaden2864]

She might be OK as a back-bench MP, even if she was a hopeless PM.

[@michellebarbour5777]

@@simongleaden2864 In what way exactly? I'd like to understand how she could be useful to the future of the country? I may be limited and missing something?

[@jonescrusher1]

@@simongleaden2864 that’s not what I’ve heard

[@OJ-jy2ex]

@@simongleaden2864is she ever in her constituency? She seems more interested in becoming a cult figure

[@normasarsby1350]

Would be good to see the back of Badenoch.

[@elkpaz560]

Because of her defence of young gay and autistic kids? Or because of her concluding treaties with Texas and Florida?

[@coatfarm]

Kind of George to join us from prison

[@IanHaywardCalvados]

Ha ha - I was wondering what he'd done to be locked up! Not the most inspiring backdrops for either of them.

[@connclissmann6514]

Schadenfreude? I'm taking Friday 5th off, just to fully enjoy it!

[@simongleaden2864]

I'm taking the day off too, so I can stay up really late and not have to get up & go to work. The crucial time is 2 - 3 a.m., I believe, when the results really flood in.

[@simoningate2056]

I have the 4th and 5th off - Go vote - potter around the garden - have a sleep then stay up late to watch the bloodbath. This should be the Punishment Beating election.

[@richardruff8712]

@@simoningate2056 May be a good idea to record it all.... Lots of the famous ' Portillo ' moments to come... Hopefully Sunak and the nearly invisible Jeremy Hunt will lose their seats.... WOW....

[@glyngreen538]

If you get canvassed by a Tory or Reform person keep them talking ad long as possible if you have the time to cut down how many people they can speak to. Don’t vote for them, obviously. Also bring up electoral reform / PR as an issue on the doorstep - I’m a lifelong Green voter but I’d loan my vote to another party who had a manifesto commitment to changing the ancient unfair voting system we have that massively reduces the seats smaller parties get.

[@happyChappy96621]

While I agree with you but would you say the same if we had proportional representation if we had in 2015 UKIP would’ve been the third biggest party in Westminster

[@glyngreen538]

@@happyChappy96621 I’d rather a fairer electoral system and if that’s what people vote for that’s what people should get. There may also be a lot of people around the country who live in safe seats for a different party and they may don’t bother voting at all as it won’t change the result but they would like to vote if it actually affected what MPs got in government. Overall our country is more leftwing than the governments we get a large majority of the time and PR could correct this. There would be more Reform MPs but they would be unlikely to be part of the government in power or only rarely.

[@stringbok]

They and we got done by Brexit

[@VesiustheBoneCruncher]

Although very welcome, Hunt getting the boot in “Goodallming” isn’t a Portillo moment as it widely expected. Up until Portillo was ejected, the public thought he was going to be the next Tory leader. Sunak, Braverman, Badenoch would be a legitimate Portillo moment.

[@chelseaiceton9255]

Currently chancellor tho. Pretty big moment for a would chancellor to lose their seat

[@VesiustheBoneCruncher]

Oh, absolutely massive , a different event to a Portillo moment though.

[@FranzBieberkopf]

I detest Rees-Mogg with a passion, but Jeremy See You En Tee and the other 3 you mention would be great (I think Sunak is a bit optimistic). I have a bottle of single malt waiting to be opened as the exit poll is revealed 10 pm 4th July

[@stevebadcock9206]

Seems like it could happen across Surrey tbh… Lib Dems so nearly took Esher and Walton last time and seem to be in a good position to take it this time! That’s not to mention the number of MPs standing down, so fewer seats could cling on to a so-called “Personal vote”

[@colinbaker3916]

Exactly, and you could add Truss. I hope voters in Essex, Norfolk and Fareham wake up.

[@simonmeadows7961]

If a candidate who I really didn't like turned up at my door, I'd invite them in for a cuppa. It's perfectly possible to be civil, but I'd want to take up as much of their time as possible, so as to minimise the time available for them to persuade anyone else.

[@kevinbyrne5265]

If Rees-Mogg keeps his seat then the electorate there can be classed as deranged to the point of insanity.

[@Belfreyite]

They always were deranged to the point of insanity.

[@chrisr6794]

I swear to god, if Liz Truss of all people keeps her seat...

[@coppershark1973]

She will. Norfolk is insane. I live in Norwich and we are surrounded by a vile sea of blue rosettes. Truss will survive because of the damned farmers and remote village racists.

[@robbuxton8438]

Sometimes though the number of rosettes and posters is in inverse proportion to the successful candidate

[@michellebarbour5777]

@@robbuxton8438 fingers crossed

[@simoningate2056]

There is a local independent Tory plot to oust her - be prepared for a pleasant surprise.

[@springwood1331]

@coppershark ironic how you call people racist, whilst making a prejudiced comment about a whole group of people

[@daviddunmore8415]

On a six figure income I'd be happy to pay the higher rate of tax.

[@theother1281]

The thing to do when a candidate you want to lose turns up at your door is: pretend to be undecided and ask them about their policies, then keep asking follow up questions for as long as you can. You want to burn their time, and being undecided will keep them engaged.

[@stephendoherty8291]

The thing is to start off with easy questions and then go for the jugular with evidence. Ideally something local under the conservatives and related to the economy and brexit. Then watch them sweat and keep driving the knife in and ask for a real answer not platitudes

[@MartiA1973]

Oh yea 😂 not that any team blue door knockers are about

[@benwilson6145]

The Right Wing Australian PM Johnny Howard lost his seat to a journalist.

[@Steven_Rowe]

I remember that it was Maxine McKew, former ABC reporter and what a total dud she was lol.

[@benwilson6145]

@@Steven_Rowe Howard was an even bigger loser!

[@Steven_Rowe]

@@benwilson6145 embarrassing to be PM and loose your seat

[@benwilson6145]

@@Steven_Rowe We can hope

[@chrispoole2438]

George, are you being held prisoner? You look like you're being held in a cell! 😮😅

[@michaeladkins6]

Sounds like it, too.

[@elpresidente8730]

I remeber the days when I earned a 6 figure salary, I can honestly say I never knew a days hardship in that time. How out of touch these Tories are.

[@jasoncooper9391]

Where's the 40 new Hospitals 😂

[@elkpaz560]

Did the Nightingale Hospitals count?

[@jasoncooper9391]

@@elkpaz560 certainly not 🤣

[@WanderingWarg]

I can't stop looking at Rachel's background - an empty set of shelves with a single face-up playing card - what is the story there??

[@JupiterThunder]

The only card I need, you know it's gonna be, the five of clubs, the five of clubs

[@DanPhillips-in6qn]

If you are in favour of mass immigration, you are in favour of more traffic on roads , more queues in shops, more crowded beaches and beauty spots in summer, more overcrowding in high streets, more overflowing bins, more sewerage in rivers as more people use water and flush toilets, less free seats on trains, and just generally everything feeling more and more busy with each passing year that this madness carries on for. Oh and less and less countryside as.more and more building needs to be done in a deranged and futile effort to keep up. Sounds like a great future.....

[@rogerphelps9939]

But you also get a properly functioning NHS.

[@nenalafuente]

George Eaton refers to a "supermajority" @ 09:59. I can understand why the Tories are using this term, to scare their voters into getting out and voting (and not voting for Reform), but please explain why a political journalist is using a phrase that has no meaning outside of US politics.

[@colinbaker3916]

Yes. It requires a “supermajority” (I think 60 Senate votes) to override Presidential veto.

[@michellebarbour5777]

It's pretty obvious - Tories are desperate to create fear?? super-nova, super-disaster, super-trauma...FEARRR!

[@arwelp]

Yes, and why would a majority of 180 or 200 be more of a supermajority than the 80 the Tories got in 2019?

[@alansquared]

The guy looks like he’s on hunger strike in Broadmoor. Someone get him a sandwich!

[@PaulHooton-w8w]

40 new hospitals 0

[@TheDigger76]

Unpopular outside view from Germany and Switzerland here: I am really a self confessed news junkie both on national and uk news. Let me tell you: the „world stage“ hasn’t mentioned Sunaks D-day decision even once. I find it fascinating how often it comes up with pundits, particularly with the NS, LBC or tldr; but that’s pretty much it. I also think there is very good reasons not to talk about it, as all parties seem to agree. It’s simply a non-issue. Other than water, climate change, the NHS, Europe, wages, rents, … you name it. But I may totally lack the finger on Britain’s pulse.

[@kostaskolotouros4345]

Always insightful and to the point. Thanks

[@nicks4934]

Sunk should lose his seat 💺

[@alanlmsca]

What I want to know is, if we now have the highest taxes ever(?), why aren't we seeing the benefits? Where does all the money go? What is it being used for?

[@808purpleturtle808]

A lot of it goes to pay interest on our national debt. We have gained more debt due to economic failures like brexit so GDP hasn’t grown but also war in Ukraine causing energy crisis and Covid. So we’re paying a lot more tax now just to pay the interest on our debt from the last few years

[@alanlmsca]

⁠@@808purpleturtle808many thanks for your reply and the clarification. We seem to be very good at shooting ourselves in the foot whilst digging a hole!

[@happychappy7115]

I'm convinced huge sums get channelled through banks thence into private hands, and into assets offshore.

[@MartiA1973]

Just one of your best. Thank you

[@lewisg06]

Sugimoto is an great inspiration, his work is very powerful and philosophical. Thank you for sharing.

[@stevebinning977]

Let's hope for some tactical voting. Particularly in Sunak's seat.

[@1danwynn]

Exactly. You invite the candidate / activist you don't like in for tea and waylay them for as long as possible so they can't talk to anyone else. Campaigning 101 😆

[@happychappy7115]

Put something in the tea😮

[@georgemaund4964]

"We will consider the personalities of the candidates, the policies of the parties, and will definitely vote on polling day."

[@RobertSmith-di5ll]

If we sold the gold - why not the wine cellar?

[@MuddyDuck...]

Come on New Statesman, what has happened to your 'professionalism'? Your presenters could at least have spent a couple of minutes getting their setups sorted properly. One was way over exposed , the other seriously under exposed. Worse still the sheer blandness of each setting were so bad that they became highly distracting. - Why just the random single card (5 Clubs) on Rachel's empty shelves? - And George's resulting skin tone/ shirt/ blank wall colour combo was epically bad ! There are loads of school kid KZbinrs out there with production levels orders of magnitude better..! You can do better (and should) !

[@baloodarling486]

Yes, I did think was George Eaton was speaking to us whilst in custody.

[@happychappy7115]

Maybe the settings are appropriate for UK in 2024😮

[@MuddyDuck...]

@@happychappy7115 😂

[@tenorwoody85]

Hard to watch when wearing headphones. Really bad audio quality.

[@fToo]

@15:25 you guys are way too nice! surely the answer is to tell the canvasser (of the party you don't like) that you aren't sure how you will vote, and that you would love to hear from the candidate ... and waste as much of their time as possible!

[@baloodarling486]

The thumbnail for this video is simply shameless clickbait... However the subject is also fascinating and satisfying to speculate on, so bravo!

[@stephendoherty8291]

What a joke. Levelling down should gave been the policy. Get the worst outcome Brexit done - done

[@MartinBroadhurst]

Has George been taken captive? Is this his hostage video?

[@michellebarbour5777]

Reform leaflet through my door (no knock - scared?) in Folkestone. Candidate promised to reply to an e-mail within 48 hours. I asked detailed questions about each point on the back of the leaflet, respectfully and interestedly and thanked him for his 48 hour promise. If nothing else, I kept him up for hours attempting to explain why none of his policies are realistic and there are no policies other than a desperation for Farage to be an M.P. A respectful and thoughtful reply but a seemingly decent man grappling with the possibility of voters.

[@indefatigable8193]

George Eaton looks like he’s from the movie 1984

[@JohnnyinMN]

What a waste of time. Neither party can save Britain. You aren’t even discussing real issues such as the need for an actual, written constitution. The world now sees your demise as inevitable.

[@Boo-pv4hn]

I’d appreciate it if you’d ask a question regarding housing and disability equality, I’ve found there’s no disabled housing for those below 55 or if there is it’s often by chance a needed adaption while someone’s waiting to move and not suitable for future use so a shower onto a bath up flights of concrete slippery stairs. An adapted property with steps upto it and up hill and so on. I’d like to see someone actually commit to having housing specifically allocated for those disabled and under. 55, this could be done by using ground floor flats for example or adapting buildings in suitable locations. Adaptions of some homes for those in the Comunity who are disabled with families. Currently there’s a huge short fall for disabled housing personally I had to get my home with ALOT of paperwork and quoting the disability equality act for ageism. A lot of people don’t have the strength or will power, what can be done to get elected people’s attention to these issues

[@1TimBaugh]

A more Machievellian option might be to keep them talking as long as possible, about any subject they are prepared to discuss; take up their time, get them off the streets.

[@museholic7000]

16:49 try to convince them to leave their party. 😊

[@Lego6980]

8:32 maybe if Corbyn were to win his seat, some Labour MPs might ally themselves with him in protest in future

[@johnburrows3385]

On the evidence of last night.....England weren't playing in the Euros.

[@simoningate2056]

Only partially - first 30 mins then went to sleep - bit like Brexit seemed like a good idea (to some idiots) and then turned into an absolute disaster.

[@martynhaggerty2294]

Are they interviewing in a locker room?

[@andrewjones-productions]

No. I think they are speaking from the future. Specifically, from the empty, vacated offices of ex-Tory MPs..

[@JohnShaw-zm2pc]

Which conservative mp will join reform just to keep their seats. Same old faces 😮

[@carltontweedle5724]

We need a rule a person can only stand in a place they have lived for a min of 15 years. No parachuting in some one just locals. We need real people not this is a career.

[@jeanpierreviergever1417]

I get ‘1984’ movie vibes from George.

[@daraghcorcoran6587]

An hour on house building: excellent. Property out of reach for the young. Those that manage to get a mortgage pushed towards poverty unless they work two jobs and have no life. AND of course, seemingly the only thing anyone who DOES have a bit of money can think of to invest in….which in turn makes things worse by pushing prices up. Add to that NIMBYISM on a national scale! Pull that one apart. No wonder neither party wants to tackle it.

[@happychappy7115]

The Cons got Brexit done. Yay!!😅

[@TimThat]

Couldn’t find anyone posher to work for the New Statesman, no?

[@RobertSmith-di5ll]

Nice warehouse in the middle of the country with event chairs that they put out themselves -- normal pay?sandwich counter, bar only open after 6:pm with no subs. I can dream.

[@mskatonic7240]

8:01 no, he can't sit on the government benches as an independent. In practical terms, the size of Labour's majority will be such that even Labour MPs will struggle to find a seat at busy times, so JC has no chance.

[@robinstevenson6690]

I'm not British, but it seems important to bring a English grammar error to your attention: The title of this video should be "Which MPs will lose their SEATS?"

[@sjones9180]

not quite my pedantic friend, its only "seats" if each MP has more than one seat each which they don't. By the way its "an" before a vowel not "a" - so "an English grammar error"

[@chickenbites8877]

All of them?

[@12123434Z]

um-uh-um-uh-um-um!

[@kennethhodges3187]

Here's a question for you:;- Should people vote for what is best for the country or what they think is best for themselves?

[@mikeydread62]

There will be a bingo card issued, yes?

[@Mitjitsu]

What's with the playing card on the shelf?

[@dereks1264]

Why is a "Portillo moment" considered such a big deal?

[@LightninBolt]

Audio needs work

[@Yaxley28]

3:55 “Good-alming”?? It’s Godalming, just say it how it’s spelt😅

[@bobtahoma]

GODALMING and Ash, and FAREHAM and Waterlooville.

[@LukeNichol-j9d]

How likely will the trade unions potentially cause troubles for a Labour government? We already know of junior doctor strikes and UNITE refusing to endorse the Labour manifesto...could trade unions clash with the new government's approach to workers rights, living standards and other key issues?

[@stevenwilliamson6236]

Depends what they actually do.

[@dalerichardson1667]

I have a question why do you always talk about PPL knocking on doors, I have never had a candidate of any party knock my door in Coventry so why do PPL keep saying it?

[@annphillips1086]

Because some candidates in some areas do.

[@dalerichardson1667]

@@annphillips1086 so it's okay that in 40 year's I have never had a candidate come to my house and knock on my door that's not a reason it's a lie they don't knock doors

[@shehryar_]

@@dalerichardson1667they’ve knocked on my door. So was I daydreaming?

[@dalerichardson1667]

@@shehryar_ I am simply saying I haven't in 40 year's so as far as I am concerned it BS and they don't do it

[@stevenwilliamson6236]

I've had a candidate knock on my door. Not very often, though.

[@frankpennington]

Stop going on about Brexit - it was a waste of time and done untold damage to the UK.

[@rogerphelps9939]

Not if you never wanted it and want to get it reversed ASAP.

[@stevenwilliamson6236]

They got Brexit done.

[@Sam-jd3sz]

New History will be credited on 5th July many peoples will Celebrate ?

[@JelMain]

So why didn't they go to the Nation? Why should we believe the new one? Answer: it's irrelevant. They're distory.

[@malacca1951]

Why does George say, 'Er', 'Erm' and 'Um' every 2.5 seconds?! It's er, so erm irritating! 'Fillers' are like wrong notes in a piece of music! Being able to speak coherently without hesitations and 'wrong notes' is important. Try watching this video again without noticing the 'Erms' ! Impossible!

[@AHSpolitics]

What happens if the Tories don’t have enough MPs to form a shadow cabinet after the election?

[@archibaldplum5171]

If they do that badly, the lib dems will probably have more MPs than them, so the Lib Dems will appoint the shadow cabinet. Or conceivably the SNP, if they have a spectacularly good night.

[@sjones9180]

each MP will end up with more than one job - but they are used to that! Or better still some other party will be the official opposition!

[@rogerphelps9939]

The Lib Dems will.

[@imageaware]

She was overexposed, he was underexposed, and both had terrible audio. It was unwatchable.

[@daydays12]

The editor was a shock and disappointing

[@tardyturkey7395]

Are these two really the best the News Statesman can offer during an election campaign?

[@RealDareel]

Andrew Feinstein to defeat Starmer. I can dream 😅

[@Gerrygambone]

Will never happen. If it does I will be asking you for Saturdays Lottery Numbers 6th July

[@FranzBieberkopf]

You can indeed and this will remain a dream😊🙃

[@stevenwilliamson6236]

​@@FranzBieberkopfI assume there are Tories in Starmer's constituency. I assume that they are unlikely to win. Therefore why not vote for Feinstein to cause mischief? Why not put the many faults of FPTP to some kind of use?

[@JackJohnson-lp9jr]

😂😂😂😂

[@ptodd1306]

Brexit has not been ‘done’

[@lorrainemoynehan6791]

oh but it has, did you not get your money off shore? What were you hoping for?

[@lorrainemoynehan6791]

but hey, blue passports!

[@gillianpope9039]

No but the population has been done over!!!

[@DavidSmith-gx5mu]

Brexit has been a disaster

[@ptodd1306]

@dondoodat there’s lots not done yet - for example the visa requirements is not yet implemented. And much much more.

[@tocaat2410]

PLEASE learn how to pronounce 'Godalming'.

[@lheureexquise140]

Boris had a better "levelling up" plan and a better social care plan than Starmer/Reeves. You heard it here first. (Oh, I'm very much not a Tory, so..)

[@meatychunkz8875]

Except he had absolutely no interest in actually delivering his “plan”

[@freelandguy121]

And it's paid absolute dividends hasn't it?

[@jayarava]

The might have had a plan, but they didn't bother to implement any of it.

[@lheureexquise140]

@@meatychunkz8875 I think they got rid of him because he was seen as spending too much money and appeasing social interests too much. The social care plan history is particularly interesting, (rolled back by Truss then Sunak) especially as Labour will have the same problem in government and the same divisions/lack of answers.

[@lheureexquise140]

@@freelandguy121 Politically, they should have kept Boris obviously. But he wasn't a very serious politician and there were vested interests ranked against him. The ruling class will be forever grateful to him for his successful 2019 campaign which saw off the possibility of fairer redistribution.

[@gordonsmith7885]

Level up the rich ..level down the poor ...the Tory project for the past two centuries

[@txyz6693]

Is that guy learning to speak English ?? He seems to struggle with speaking in sentences .

[@Red1Green2Blue3]

He spoke fine, maybe it's you that has the problem with English?

[@glyngreen538]

If you get canvassed by a Tory or Reform person keep them talking as long as possible if you have the time to cut down how many people they can speak to. Don’t vote for them, obviously. Also bring up electoral reform / PR as an issue on the doorstep - I’m a lifelong Green voter but I’d loan my vote to another party who had a manifesto commitment to changing the ancient unfair voting system we have that massively reduces the seats smaller parties get.

[@ldewproductions7271]

I

[@ldewproductions7271]

I thought Reform were for PR yet you say don't vote for them. Typical Green voter another air head.

[@glyngreen538]

@@ldewproductions7271 oh they do also support PR which is a silver lining but I still personally don’t suggest voting for an unpleasant far right racist party. You do you though.

[@mikeydread62]

There will be a bingo card issued, yes?