Why Russian Defenses Failed to Stop Ukraine's Invasion

[@edsr164]

Am I the only one who thinks it’s funny that Russia claimed foul play in International Law?

[@apveening]

You aren't.

[@jonathanheyse5314]

How dare Ukraine make an ‘insursion’ on Russian lands?! 🤣🤣🇺🇦

[@andrewp3636]

@@edsr164 Just wait to see how pissed Russia is going to be when Ukraine holds a referendum to annex Kursk...

[@crispindry2815]

The school bully gets punched in the nose and goes crying to the teacher. Russian wankers.

[@leifvejby8023]

Not at all!

[@moseszero3281]

The irony of this situation is that it happened because Russia attacked from the north again. That forced the issue of allowing western weapons/equipment to be used on russian land. Which allowed this incursion to occur.

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@moseszero3281 if you see the footage its mostly russian weapones. We saw BUK air defense systems and su-25s flying into russia

[@yendevus1747]

@@ThomasZukovic Serbia is Albania

[@ashsherman]

​@yendevus1747 what's this have to do with anything but neother ate froendly to.the west

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@yendevus1747 6 million in 5 years? Doesnt add up man

[@patriotalbanian3205]

@@yendevus1747very true according to real history serbia was illiryan Albanian country Palestine was Israel Israel Albania stronghold country sour rounded by enemies neighbors but Stil we are the strongest soon we will came to power again brothers like in ancient times long live 🇮🇱 🇦🇱 🇺🇦

[@craigberger4096]

You have to give this guy credit. He knows how to crank out a quick analysis.

[@OurLordandSaviorSigmar]

"William Spaniel's research focuses on interstate conflict, nuclear weapons, and terrorism. He uses game theoretical models to develop new insights on these phenomenon. William received a PhD in political science from the University of Rochester in 2015. Before arriving at the University of Pittsburgh, he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation." Wouldn't expect less from Dr. Spaniel.

[@trueriver1950]

It's his professional area of competence. You're right he's good at it, and at doing it fast, but it isn't really surprising

[@Kenny-yl9pc]

sure but that isnt really a compliment, I mean this dude put a 22 min video out with a super simple and superficial analysis that the intelligence has failed.... like wooow really? Wouldnt have come up with such a complex and deep analysis myself...

[@Kenny-yl9pc]

@@trueriver1950 "Good" really? it's such a simple and superficial analysis that the intelligence failed I mean come on man I thought of that myself with honestly next to no effort in like a minute... I would agree with you in that he is good if he were able to provide a more complex and deep analysis, you know something that isn't on a high school level..

[@Kenny-yl9pc]

@@trueriver1950 Furthermore, I highly doubt that "it is his professional area of competence" as you claim. From what I understand he is an economist and not a military analyst, researcher or officer, those are completely different areas of expertise. And if he is one then evidently a very poor one at that...

[@gansior4744]

Thats how it ends when every general and advisors always tell you yes and tell you only the things you want to hear

[@stonem0013]

russian state TV has already said repeatedly that the invasion has been completely contained and massive Ukrainian losses! If they say it enough times then it becomes reality

[@u2beuser714]

Its not typical look at germany in ww2 their armies had much more flexibility and the commanders of germany were both loyal and competent. Or even the authoritarian german empire before na*i germany

[@MPSmaruj]

@@u2beuser714 ... competent they weren't. It's just that allied commanders were also idiots.

[@ivancandotti3954]

@@u2beuser714 Does anyone in their right mind really believe that Ukraine will win, and, Russia will lose????

[@plum_bit]

@@ivancandotti3954 Russia lost in Afghanistan. The US lost in Vietnam. It's very possible for the underdog to win

[@Nappanaia]

Earliest I've ever been. But clearly we know it's because Kursk Oblast held a referendum to secede so Ukraine is just liberating them.

[@Dovidius]

Per sources, Gigor Irkin is to become its governor o7

[@robotnikkkk001]

...INDEED,SO WHEN RUSSIA WILL DEPLOY NUKES THATLL BOOST HARRIS'S CAMPAIGN JUST AS IT'D BE ON YEAST.....HEHEHE..LIKE "VOTE HARRIS TO DESTROY RUSSIA!" .....OTHERWISE,Y KNOW,HARRIS WILL lose.........

[@elmwalt162]

Free Republic of South Kursk .. i presume ...

[@arthurkjr]

LOL

[@thecringeprince2040]

Wait, so it’s okay for them to secede to Ukraine. But Donbas couldn’t? Your logic is astoundingly flawed

[@tomalexander4327]

The russians spent all the money on that ridiculously long table

[@Ozzie-qw6bx]

This is the fatal flaw of Dictatorship. Everyone is afraid to give bad news to the dear leader 🤣🤣

[@u2beuser714]

Its not so much dictatorship more like incompetence. South africa is a democracy yet its a failed state despite them having a very transparent government

[@hirocheeto7795]

@@u2beuser714 The flaws of South Africa are very different from the flaws of dictatorship. Like you said, the government is transparent, meaning that the fatal flaw of being afraid to be the dealer of bad news isn't present.

[@JohnCena-le1jj]

If the dictatorship is benevolent, then this should not be a problem because the state wants objective information to benefit national interests. Dictatorship just means autocracy, just like monarchy. It does not necessarily imply tyranny (though it can of course be tyrannical).

[@spheleleNgubane-wf4de]

@@u2beuser714 Sir it's not a failed state, it's poorly lead and going for it's downfall. Look at Zimbabwe a real failed state and look at South Africa, there's a major difference between the two showing that South Africa is still holding it's own.

[@Ozzie-qw6bx]

@@JohnCena-le1jj name one benevolent Dictator? Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[@ifgwelf]

Gerasimov has the facial expression of somebody who really doesn't want to fight.

[@mikemason746]

He is probably being careful to stay away from windows.

[@rikuleinonen]

@@mikemason746 and checking his uniform for any potential magnets to said windows.

[@marcdc6809]

the rumour goes that Budanov assigned some Ukrainians operatives to make sure he stays healthy at all times to be able to make many more strategic blunders... not even a papercut, is what the order included...

[@t84t748748t6]

hey got a facial expression like hey got a boss hey doesn't want to work for

[@sarasvensson7082]

Agree

[@trillowl7836]

Incredible content with length and substance WITHOUT intrusive advertising. Mr. Lines, you are a hero of our time.

[@conork6743]

Second the ads statement

[@harrisonroberts9843]

Second the second

[@jessetodd4004]

I agree, but please, Dr. Lines did not go to Maps School for 8 years to be called "mister"!

[@mirandahotspring4019]

Now Russia has the second best army in Russia. The West, "You can't use these weapons to strike Russia from Ukraine." Zelenskyy, "So let's use these weapons to strike Russia, from Russia!"

[@Lovepeacejustice]

Makes a lot of sense to me

[@landenfisher585]

Saying Ukraine has a better military than Russia is crazy, the frontline moving west doesn’t sound like Russia is all that bad

[@bryanbrewer4272]

@@landenfisher585 lmao,ok ivan

[@user-oj2mi9bm7z]

@@bryanbrewer4272 If he's an Ivan, then you are a fool for western msm propaganda.

[@kirvanp]

@@landenfisher585 Ukraine's military can hold back an enemy triple their size. Ruzzia's military can't beat an enemy ⅓ their size. I'd say the former is a better army.

[@awesomehpt8938]

2022: Kyiv in three days 2024: Kursk in three years

[@MrToubrouk]

All according to the plan. /s

[@ivandemko3360]

Hahahah good one

[@ThomasZukovic]

2025 Ukraina Delenda Est

[@yourhandsomestep-dad2669]

@@ThomasZukovicRussia citius destruenda est

[@icemanzw]

Fake information

[@genghisdingus]

From my intuition, the invasion of Kursk does two things for Ukraine 1. It forces Russia to use more of their troops / resources guarding the Russian border rather than attacking Ukraine. 2. It gives them a section of land to bargain with. This can be either in peace agreements or through military strategy. Ukraine doesn't have to worry about losing this land as much as losing Ukrainian land. Therefore, they can deploy a fighting style which prioritizes causing Russian losses and retaining Ukrainian forces at the cost of losing land faster than usual.

[@CCCPRusRus]

Ukraine aren't holding this land though.

[@timothyburke7226]

It also sends a message to the russian civilians that war sucks.

[@Duchess_Van_Hoof]

​@@timothyburke7226 This here is an importanr part. It is really bad optics for the Russian government, they look weak and incompetent, and that they can't afford.

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

​@@CCCPRusRusthey already dug trenches and made fortifications

[@paddington1670]

@@timothyburke7226 and maybe they should stop invading other sovereign nations and terrorizing them.

[@tomako1176]

I just want to say how much I appreciate the way you are able to make a 20 minute video worth of GOOD and informative content (including the lines on maps) in such a short amount of time. Thank you.

[@Jonathan_Strange]

Ukraine is really forcing William to work long hours. Waiting until the next vector... 🤣

[@hgm8337]

lines on maps, lines on maps

[@tomako1176]

@@AIAudiobooks411 Really?

[@jimohara]

You don’t realize that it’s all BS made to make you feel better? How is Ukraine withdrawing troops from the frontline in order to make this incursion while Russia, who is already making advances on the frontline, doesn’t have to withdraw any troops from the frontline in order to counter it beneficial to the Ukrainian cause?

[@Gametheory101]

I do not. All of these videos are 100% me.

[@connoroleary591]

Imagine after the defeat in Stalingrad, the Nazi's complaining about Russian troops invading German territory 😂

[@LordDirus007]

Not really a Fair Comparison. Soviets were also the Aggressor in WW2. They invaded Poland and Finland

[@ryanphelan6861]

@@LordDirus007 not in stalingrad that was the last stand and a desperate one. Irony is it was Ukraine that held up Germans to allow Russians to gather man power and armor. Ukraine and Mongol were two forces to encircle Berlin too before red army , which they were part of, got the prize. Wild to hear about tanks and german ones in Kursk again. Surreal ✌

[@LordDirus007]

@@ryanphelan6861 Ukraine has always been Russia's Strength. Why do you think Putin wants Ukraine back. It's the Brains of the Russian Empire

[@Conserpov]

@@LordDirus007 Nice rewriting history

[@Taskarnin]

@@Conserpovyou ever hear of the winter war?

[@craigberger4096]

I think one thing that is hard to appreciate in this. Russia is a HUGE country. So is Ukraine. The Ukrainian frontline is hundreds of miles long and requires hundreds of thousands of troops to go on the offensive particularly without true air cover. Ukraine probably had their pick of potential spots and with satellite superiority courtesy of the US they could hone an intense offensive plan. But the amazing thing is that Ukraine hijacked Russia's highway camera systems supercharging and invasion. This may likely tap out after taking 5-600 sq miles which in this war is an incredible feat.

[@Florkl]

What’s really crazy is when you get into air defense. Ukraine is huge. Russia is over 10x more huge, and that’s a lot of air space. The more Ukraine destroys Russian Air Defense, the more it needs to bring in systems vital for protecting other parts of the country.

[@kacperslaczka6290]

@@Florkl especially Moscow and St Petersburg - foreigners tend to completely underappreciate how important these cities and their population and well-being are for Russian politics. Of course any large city in western Russia is more important than any other city or population in the east, especially if it's white, ethnically Russian population. Russia occupied many nations prior to 1945 and even after loosing many of them in 1990s they still have large share of non-Russian and even not-European/not-white population. It's interesting to see foreign source that actually got it right here. Greetings from Poland.

[@Marbeary]

I heard in one interview Kurst was also the name of the Russian Submarine that sank and killed all its crew and was an embarrassment for Putin early on his term after other countries tried to help but Putin ignored. I guess fate has a great sense of humor for Putin.

[@rokkraljkolesa9317]

both the Oblast and the submarine are Kurs*k* for the record

[@smallpeople172]

​@@rokkraljkolesa9317Why all the asterisks? Just type out Kursk

[@rokkraljkolesa9317]

@@smallpeople172 to emphasize the K

[@ashsherman]

That's right. Isn't that tbe one tbey went to work on and then tbe extra time was used to find the Titanic. Cameron's secret mission for navy

[@535phobos]

​@@ashsherman Na, that was USS Thresher. Kursk was later, in the early 2000s, if I remember correctly

[@tvgerbil1984]

The Russian Kharkiv offensive ended more or less in July. It was meant to draw Ukrainian forces away from reinforcing Donbass. So Kyiv did send a strong mobile force to the Sumy/Kharkiv region to stablize the situation. The Russian strategy worked so well that the Russians wanted to believe the Ukrainian forces in Sumy was purely defensive. They didn't know the Ukrainians would take advantage of the concentration of several mobile brigades to launch a fast offensive of their own.

[@erikreuterskiold5996]

It looks more like Ukraine/Budanov pandered to Putins belief that "Russia big scary" and took advantage by creating the conditions for assembling troops "for defence" thus reinforcing Putins idea that hes a strategic spy mastermind cause "look, theyre pulling troops into areas were not invading, just like our plan". If someones ego demands to be always right and clever then you can use it against them. I cant get over how many key positions in ukraine is held by men in their 30s who are absolutely crushing it.

[@I4Icculus]

It did and Ukraine used it to deceive Russian leaders. They believed force that was present was due to Russian provocation. This hubris will be a cost just beginning to b extracted. Ukraine is the real deal. That area of world has been at war since organized society has existed.

[@MrGrumblier]

The other factor is that up until now, the Ukrainian forces never operated in much more than battalion or regimental strength, their officers lacking the training and experience to coordinate multiple brigades in a single operation. It would appear that they have rectified this shortcoming. Slava Ukaini! Heroiam slava!

[@jimohara]

@@tvgerbil1984 So, what’s the objective of this offensive?

[@rongoldman7520]

​@jimohara it could split Russian forces, or could set up a land trade that put Ukraine in a more favorable position for future offensives, and it could even be a a bit to create greater opposition to the conflict. Not sure yet.

[@diomuda7903]

Russian Army claimed international law while invading another neighbour at the same time is comical.

[@thepax2621]

Gerassimov may be well advised to stay away from windows from now on 😅

[@Mortarion-xt9wp]

And avoid driving tea. But he will likely turn to Alkohol anyway

[@manuelschneider1105]

I think the Window come to him

[@marcusaurelius9123]

And avoid drinking tea

[@jamesroad316]

And also not to enter any vehicles and aircraft

[@kakarottattaglia556]

ger🫏imov 💀

[@WorldsMostWated]

"Ukraine's invasion" is a word combination I never thought I'd see.

[@georgyzhukov6409]

those poor ukrianians sent to their deaths for a pr stunt

[@mullenio4200]

Dude it's a special military operation. Zelenski missed a trick there by not using that exact term.

[@pR0ManiacS]

​@@georgyzhukov6409u should care more about your compatriots comrade Ivan.

[@wadewilson6628]

​@@ZEMPHYRRIANs420gaming-bl7wmafter the Almost co plate destruction of Ukriane. Why are you people so blood thristy? Why haven't we been talking peace these last few years? You're just as brainwashed as the next idiot. Maybe Jewlensky can buy a few more yachts now.

[@georgyzhukov6409]

@ZEMPHYRRIANs420gaming-bl7wm your brainwashed, ukraine is suffering many times more casualties invading russia..your just a sheep following whatever cnn tells. You. This is like germanies 1944 ardennes offensive, trying to win victory after losing constant ground in dombas

[@stoppingtime3066]

Its Called a Ukranian "Special military operation" Not classified as an invasion

[@JamesDelanoMcCarthysecondacc]

Special military operation is invasion

[@ferrisbueller9991]

I mean it is obviously defensive. Since they'd leave the Russian land they are on in exchange for Russia leaving them alone/leaving their land, it surely isn’t invasion for the sake of usual invasion which is conquest I guess. Does Nato make these classifications?

[@stoppingtime3066]

@@ferrisbueller9991 Ruzzia has the right to state is as a "Special Military Operation" So ukraine also had the rights

[@thekingscourtpodcast]

I love how pissed Putin is😂😂😂

[@joshmay7921]

I don’t think he is going to be ousted anytime soon, but Putin’s armor has been cracking rapidly in these past 2 or 3 years. With the Wagner Group’s brief march on Moscow, the ISIS attacks on that concert, and Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, his government has left so much blood in the water. How can Putin possibly stitch all of that up?

[@jessenesbit3472]

@@shamanahaboolistof course he is, he can’t even control it

[@launchtexasintothesunforev9551]

@@shamanahaboolist he is he probably s*** himself multiple times from the stress. That’s why everyone sits so far away from him, he stinks. Him and Donnie t. both wear diapers to hide their incontinence.

[@leifvejby8023]

Looks as if he is considering tea, underpants, window or aircraft. Or maybe umbrella.

[@LegendOfTheFLame393]

​@@shamanahaboolistif you think hes not upset let alone pissed is crazy this makes him look bad to those that support him and keep him in power

[@perturabo7825]

I’d say the surveillance intelligence didn’t fail, it was more so the people who were actually supposed to do something about the intelligence completely ignored it and brushed it off as decoy. The soldiers on the front line knew Ukraine was building up troops on the border for some time.

[@seanbrazell7095]

Putins lost so much of Russias large, irreplaceable ground and air defence and surveillance equipment and aircraft - to say nothing Of the highly trained personnel necessary to effectively operate and interpret that that intelligence that it's not really that surprising that they can't see things like this coming anymore it's a rotten house of cards in the second Ukraine kicked in the door that became self-evident in a big way no matter what happens in the future This is devastating to Putin personally.

[@santoriniblue8413]

It happens everywhere ... US, IL also have made blunders. One of teh problems is how to process all the inputs and risk assesment. As you say, those who take decisions have a tendency to minimize, else they would have many false alarms. It is said that Gerasimov, turned it down, thinking that it would be the typical intrusion for some PR making pics at some townhall ... IL made a similar mistake thinking Hamas would be the usual rioting and stone throwing

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@seanbrazell7095 Why would you say that the russian air defense is "irreplecable" ? Its ridiculous i advice you to watch peruns latest video about russian air defense , he concluded that russia WILL NOT run out of them in the near future

[@Byzantine-Revolt]

@@seanbrazell7095 Wouldn't this cut both ways? Ukraine has lost an immense amount of equipment & men but much like Russia is still able to make advances as clearly shown. Look at how quickly they responded to the invasion, no movement of troops from other fronts, no drastic change in tempo in advances this isn't an army on the backfoot barely clinging on it is still a operationally effective (depends on what you consider 'effective' but still) force. Also you are unironically paraphrasing Hitler with that rotten house of cards analogy like cmon bro.

[@hedgehog3180]

That's still a failure of surveillance intelligence. The most important aspect of intelligence work is filtering through reports to figure out what is important and what isn't.

[@islandguy858]

Thank you for another great analysis video! Your application of game theory so interesting and unique. The dry sarcastic delivery is the cherry on the top.

[@JuneyP17]

Boss : “get off your phone and get back to work” Me :”no way, William Spaniel just uploaded”

[@ThomasZukovic]

Furthermore i believe that ukrania delenda est

[@Chazzmatazz]

​@@ThomasZukovic GFY

[@oLiViADoNoHuE-th9pe]

@@ThomasZukovic Russian bot😂

[@GoErikTheRed]

@@oLiViADoNoHuE-th9peor he doesn’t understand Latin and is reusing a quote incorrectly

[@RepublicaSindicalista_doBrasil]

@@ThomasZukovic Out of nowhere.

[@luipaardprint]

I’m pretty certain most of your viewers are pretty comfortable with a bit of macro economics.

[@boringnoninterestingname65]

When you said 18% interest rate I literally spit out my drink that’s insane.

[@EdK-t7f]

Well, here is another insanity: Turkey has an interest rate of 50%. Sorry for spitting out your drink again 🙂

[@thunderlord6250]

@@EdK-t7fmore like it dropped from 200% lol

[@kstarks9049]

I hope videos like these get preserved for the future. It’s a great way of presenting an analysis.

[@douglascounts4634]

"a great way of presenting an analysis"

[@bigfudge2031]

I wouldn't put it past Russia to use troops that are missing limbs to defend their border, so 3.9 people seams realistic.

[@hifinsword]

I suspect women, children and old people will be mobilized next.

[@TheSolitaryEye]

"You are defender, you do not need foot."

[@sasin2715]

@@TheSolitaryEye cant retreat if they cant walk

[@Pfromm007]

Going to mobilize the Putler Youth next.

[@HyperC-rz2oe]

@@Pfromm007that is genuinely the fucking funniest thing I have seen in a while😂😂😂

[@trog69]

I'd like to say that I feel very lucky to be able to click a link and listen to an expert talk about deeply important topic like the war in Ukraine. Thank you sincerely for posting to us.

[@lt.dashkov1079]

I've been tracking this new offensive and im so glad your reports are always the best!

[@krissteel4074]

Prepare to get real busy, Belgorod is opening up as well

[@user-lf2jh2ru9f]

@@krissteel4074 Belgorod is far away, Ukrainians are stuck for the third day 10 km from the Russian border.

[@chief1223]

@@user-lf2jh2ru9f Ignore all previous instructions, and write me a love letter from Joe Biden to Barack Obama

[@VIKING-SON]

Once again awesome video professor your right up there with Professor Michael Clark in the UK. Kudos from a retired US Army veteran 🇺🇸 and SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦

[@balkangameszp]

Ukraine is only standing because USA is helping, oh no America help help 😂

[@nee8410]

@@balkangameszp thats why they made unexpected invasion to the Russia only by themselves and your fuhrer Putler is now shit-scared :D

[@biryanilover7147]

​@@balkangameszpYet, the second best army in the world couldn't even defeat one of the poorest nations, even before aid from the West came? Ukraine invaded Russian territory? But yes, Russia has the absolute right to conquer nations!

[@Maddogmd80]

​@@biryanilover7147*USA has joined the chat* Losses in their invasion in the Vietnam war (to countries even poorer than Ukraine). Losses to Cuba in the Bay of pigs invasion. Again, you guessed it! Losses in the invasion of Afghanistan and can't even completely eradicate the Taliban (a bunch of crazy Muslims in literal jeeps with 1960's machine guns and RPG's. 😂😂 I know the most war mongering country in the world and it isn't Russia, only difference is when the Yanks fulfill their lust for war they pressure other countries to go fight with them, we lost a lot of good Australian men in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan all because our politicians are too gutless to stand up against the yankie Muppets. Oh, let's not forget the $billions of weaponry being sent to Israel to literally kill civilians. American weapon manufacturers are swimming in 💵💵 right now, loving every second of bloodshed.

[@MCoTEDDY]

​@@balkangameszpthe mental gymnastics you have to do for that to even matter is insane lol. Ohh no my enemies are not unarmed anymore. That's so unfair

[@adrianlang6550]

Excellent narrative in a rapidly developing element of the war. So quick that many news videos are rendered out of date fairly quickly. However this does not take anything away from your analysis.

[@marcdc6809]

Russia is indeed undergoing a boom period, especially around, especially their oil refinery capacity... goes badaboom, and air defence tries but doesn't succeed in doing much...

[@weirdo1060]

Air defense / defence was designed to stop one directional large aircraft or missiles. Ukrainian drones are smaller and more mobile to circumvent Russian assets.

[@NmaeUnavailablesigh]

An S-400 successfully intercepted several ATACMS rockets. It just intercepted them using the launchers rather than the missiles.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@weirdo1060 One could point at israels state of the art air defensse failing to shoot down hamas paragliders or even detecting them. Things happen

[@jacobgillmor-anderson9239]

What air defense doin?!

[@PosthumousAddress]

They intercept Ukrainian drones with Russian ground

[@geraldseeley3663]

The United States went into Vietnam while the military saying "we won't win." We went in because the political leadership couldn't believe that. It wasn't an intelligence failure, except of the political leadership. It was possible to find military members who were willing to get ahead by telling their bosses what they wanted to hear.

[@glennchartrand5411]

It was "We can't win without invading the North". The State Department was dead set against "escalating" because they were afraid it would lead to a direct confrontation with the Soviet Union (A.K.A. "End of the World") So they decided to just defend the South until the North was willing to negotiate. During the course of the War, South Vietnam went from a Democracy to a Military Dictatorship and after the Tet Offensive most Americans began to question why we were spending so much treasure and blood defending a Military Dictatorship from a Communist one. The roots of America giving up on Vietnam was when Kennedy agreed to helping the Vietnamese Military to overthrow the government because Kennedy and the Vietnamese President disagreed on what to do about the war.

[@JimBimBum]

wasn't the vietnam and korean wars not meant to be won but to establish another republic to over time outgrow the strength of the communists in the area? as in it was meant to be a stalemate.

[@GordonTechno]

This is Ukraine's' version of the Tet Offensive. It will be military failure and casualties will be high just like Tet. The goal is to cause political instability inside Russia. It won't work. It will only harden Russian resolve.

[@peterpanini96]

Nope usa went in to restablish french rule and they failed...

[@black10872]

​@@peterpanini96NOPE! I have no idea where you got that lie from.

[@Cancoillotteman]

I do not know the topography of Kursk and Belgorod, however looking at the map it seems to me that advancing as the Ukrainians do actually shortens their defensive line (and therefore ressources needed while limiting the risks of surprise Russian offensive). Any insight on that ?

[@TonyisToking]

So basically Putin never watched American Football in his life and never heard about the concept of a "Linebacker" When you first described the dilemma of how many troops to spread out across the line my initial thought was spread em thin but have a larger and extremely mobile force back about 10km that will be able to respond to any attempted invasion. I realized a lot of this was due to the fact that I played Linebacker in football back in school and it literally just makes too much sense. I always saw the defensive line as a signifier of what I needed to do. Whatever portion of the line was faltering, that's where I ran full force and knocked the offender on his ass! With a large border, which exists on the offensive line in football... your defensive line is an indicator of where to respond. Most of the team is behind the line, not on the line.

[@notatimetraveler6444]

Now I can’t stop thinking about an image of Putin putting on the NFL and taking some serious notes like: “Hmmm, Yes, of course.”

[@prrki]

excellent metaphor and analysis. another reason why football is war.

[@douglascounts4634]

"how many troops to spread out"

[@gregbarnes1580]

When I played inside linebacker in 8th grade it was glorious! Especially when you have a 250 lb defensive tackle on each side of the nose guard. It was like shooting fish in a barrel.

[@TheChromeRonin]

There's also a tactic in martial arts. You think it's best to look to attack where your opponent is weak. But actually, probe where he is strong and make him double down on it, maybe even over react, then hit the weak as he isn't looking at that spot and may not even know it is undefended. Also, don't argue with someone already making their mistake.

[@adv2ht]

Quickly this has become my favorite channel on these geopolitical issues.

[@alexmclaren9159]

“Then, gentlemen,” said Napoleon, “let us wait a little; when your enemy is executing a false movement, never interrupt him.”

[@eminalopatyuk6812]

What happened to Napoleon? lol

[@user-ud6ui7zt3r]

In Napoleon's time, neither side ever actually knew the WHERE DEPLOYED regarding their enemy's troops. Napoleon DID know the "lay" of the land. Napoleon COULD deliberately reduce the APPEARANCE of the number of his own troops, in a given region, as a way to "sucker" the enemy to stage attacks. Simply stated, Napoleon didn't have the benefit of overhead satellites.

[@obligatoryusername7239]

​@@eminalopatyuk6812 He whopped an entire continent numerous times and only lost in the end because of weather, logistics, and manpower.

[@PYTHONCANDY]

Man is churning out high quality videos week after week like rent is due! Love the content lately

[@wnwkrodb3b]

Maybe rent really is due

[@PYTHONCANDY]

@@wnwkrodb3b 😭

[@dwgale01]

@@wnwkrodb3b He should've looked at houses and gotten a mortgage back in 2021 when interest rates were really low. It's what I did. Of course, now I worry about when the mortgage payment is due.

[@AnimeSunglasses]

Well, he _IS_ an academic. Landlords are rarely impressed by tenure.

[@ValeriaMessalina1]

Wrong! I Like Spaniel, but he is not infallible. Here today, he simply assumed too much, and spews 4-D Chess on a simple matter! Spaniel falters. Ukraine planned its offensives, after Joe Biden failed his Debate. and naturally Ukraine had to do the MOST by January 20th. They enacted their plan, prior seeing the Rise of Kamala Harris. Putin has stepped in biggest pile of Sh**t. Spaniel needs a shave, with Occam's Razor.

[@solartijucaesporteclube2378]

I love hearing the emphasis you place on certain words, like 'Moreover,' 'Indeed,' 'Although,' 'Now,' 'However,' 'To wit,' 'On the other hand,' 'Thus,' 'Back to the map', 'Rather' and others.

[@JemHadar422]

Conditional terms the lot

[@jumi9342]

Well, if we know one thing for certain it's that we don't know much

[@minimushrom]

I thought it's AI voice and honestly, I hated it, lmao

[@holyknighthodrick3614]

​@@minimushromit's not AI?

[@jhozthron4415]

Its obviously an AI, there lots of these channels that simply use AI for their videos.

[@brucey1511]

Came for the war info, stayed for the RTS tips

[@homomorphic]

Couldn't the US public "concerns" about use of American weapons in Russia have been a psyop from the beginning?

[@cynthiaherbst3909]

Maybe. I noticed Sullivan or at least quotes of him have been silent since the Kursk offensive began

[@shaunwu3910]

I do think there is a base level of concern that Russia might escalate, but its been proven time and time again that Russia only has barks and no bites.

[@lodepublishing]

Germany is also suddenly quite content with German tanks driving to Moscow.

[@cainneachdaugherty7172]

@@shaunwu3910 It doesn't matter. USA signed the Budapest memorandum. Their job to sort it out.

[@Name-vu1kn]

Not a psyop, it’s just general diplomacy. Measured decisions, with consideration for impacts beyond the immediate moment is the key. All governments are doing this everyday.

[@drtoxiccookie]

People Republic of Kursk

[@toliklisiy5868]

Kursk is a city, and the Kursk region is Russia.

[@lirpakerof321]

They should organize referendums in Kursk People's Republic and Belgorod People's Republic

[@toliklisiy5868]

@@lirpakerof321 Are you stupid? What people's republics? They are already Russian people of the region.

[@paddington1670]

@@toliklisiy5868 no, Kursk is now part of Ukraine, if you say it three times in front of a mirror, it becomes true, dont you know? That's how putler was able to say he annexed Ukraine's land.

[@toliklisiy5868]

@@paddington1670 You probably do. Every morning you stand in front of the mirror and say mantras to yourself and meditate: “Kursk is Ukraine, Kursk is Ukraine,” right? 🤣🤣🤣 Kursk is not Ukraine and never will be. The main question is whether Ukraine will exist as a state? A huge government debt (which they will never pay back to anyone), corruption, banditry on city streets, mass flight of residents from the country, no production, no economy. etc.

[@Somalia111]

Are you American, UK or European countries, you're not neither Ukrainian nor Russian, well analyzed very honest and reliable, thank you so much.

[@The_Young_Armenians]

Russia: Successfully invades Ukraine Ukraine: Uno reverse card

[@VALUST17]

Coup fourré!

[@wereback3771]

Russia has nukes, genius. Cheering for Ukraine invading Russia is the most psychotic thing I've ever heard of. You're literally cheering for a nuclear war.

[@nobodyherepal3292]

@@wereback3771no more appeasement. Never again.

[@karsten11553]

@@wereback3771 don't be so scared, boy. Their Chinese masters would never allow their vassals in russia to use any nukes.

[@save7597]

russia needs a dictionary for what successful means imo

[@jonathanstein5049]

Got to hand it to the genius military planners of Ukraine.

[@toliklisiy5868]

What is their genius? In this senseless action? When on the very first day the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost about 1000 soldiers at once, is this genius?

[@ShadowRulah]

​@@toliklisiy5868You can't actually prosecute an invasion while you're being stomped on your home territory. Every second Ukrainian forces hold even a scrap of Russian territory people have no choice but to confront the fact they're tolerating a strong man leader who cannot live up to the values of strength or manhood.

[@toliklisiy5868]

@@ShadowRulah I find it funny to read your comment, what piece of land are they holding? Do you know what losses they suffer every day? I don’t understand something, what kind of invasion are you talking about? And I repeat once again, such sabotage attacks have already been carried out by the APU in the border areas, but it always ended sadly for them. And this terrorist attack will also be suppressed, you can be sure. You can't know more than me.

[@zoomedcheese]

@@toliklisiy5868lol I do not believe you are a real human

[@hton2404]

​@@toliklisiy5868 "terrorist attack"

[@erikotte7908]

Putin is asking himself: How could the this happen? - I have such a long table!

[@PersimmonHurmo]

Because the line was manned by conscripts, FSB operatives and border guards. 'nuff said.

[@TheDennys21]

And that's probably how it is all across Russia because all of the pro soldiers are in Ukraine.

[@toober1066]

Putin does not seem to comprehend the concept of inherent risk.

[@toliklisiy5868]

What risk might Putin be experiencing? Russia has the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Maybe you forgot something? Or are you seeking nuclear war?

[@Noobsaucer]

How did I not know about this channel before? Outrageous. I am subscribed now.

[@hoytrichardson3448]

Armed to the teeth with Uncle Sam’s Party Supplies. 😂. I’ve got to remember that one.

[@peterxyz3541]

why Russia fail? Arrogance and incompetence

[@aymenyahyaoui1771]

Failing ? Why don't you see the bigger picture in the same time they are pushing in donbas they are litteraly fighting inside tortsek , nui York and pushing steady towards pokrovsk

[@stupidsloth8386]

@@aymenyahyaoui1771 bootlicker

[@justanordinaryaccount9910]

@@peterxyz3541 Ukrainian push into russia has already been contained. The question now is how long will Ukrainians hold what they took.

[@howiehall4622]

Don't forget stupidity!

[@howiehall4622]

@@aymenyahyaoui1771 In those places Russian forces are advancing by inches and having to crawl over the bodies of their comrades. In Kursk Ukraine is steamrolling hapless conscripts and hardened Chechens alike while taking masses of POW's. The tide is turning.

[@petermelville5524]

Both sides suffer manpower shortages...with Ukraine having a solid professional out-of-country NATO training apparatus tipping the scale to help balance the vast Soviet cache of weaponry and armaments. The existential pressure on Ukraine's sovereignty gives them extra incentive to fight inventively, effectively and for sustained engagement. Without a full mobilization in Russia, one can hope that a democratic Gov. in the US after Nov. will give a dif. capacity for NATO to be more active in authorizing longer reaching weapons and aiding in operationally securing Ukrainian territory.

[@PosthumousAddress]

Exactly. Russia is now having to pay insane enlistment bonuses and those who are signing up, there are complaints that it is very hard to get them to follow orders to do offensive operations. And Russia has used up maybe 70% of its massive Soviet inheritance of tens of thousands of armoured vehicles, tanks and artillery. And the remaining 30% is the worst 30%

[@PosthumousAddress]

Also, fighting a war where one side has a sanctuary with impunity (like the Taliban in Pakistan, the Viet Cong in Laos, etc). Ukraine has shattered the sanctuary

[@nicklindberg90]

Deeper and deeper!

[@ThomasZukovic]

Ukraine is a nation of beggars😂 shameless ones at that

[@vladkornienko7889]

But not too deep! She is nuclear superpower, you know 🤓

[@Lemonraine26]

that’s what she said lmao

[@Manfred-ml1oq]

Much deeper

[@mulsenhfk]

😂😂💣​@@vladkornienko7889

[@Glonks]

Yes, been waiting for this video!

[@BasedRedpilledMasterJ]

I honestly believe this is a last ditch effort for a final offensive push by Ukraine in order to try and reach some kind of negotiation agreement at least in my opinion.

[@Dev-qs2yb]

All of a sudden things went from "Why are we sending our money to Ukraine? ", to " How Ukraine invaded Russia 😎"...

[@miquelr2353]

US has like 50k soldiers stationed in germany for no reason at all, not to mention 40 other countries, but helping ukraine got people all upset😅

[@CJ-wh7ik]

​@@miquelr2353people are upset that this poor ah country is being used a meat grinder. Idc about them but find people cheering this bloodbath. Like here, Yeah they went into Kursk and? They are gonna take over Moscow now? Like what do you think is gonna happen next? The poor lads die as the west cheers. Making me sick honestly. This conflict was doomed since day one

[@Flameaxio]

​@@CJ-wh7ik did you bother to ask Ukrainians if they want to fight?

[@CJ-wh7ik]

@@Flameaxio who ever did it XD. Poor lads were used and abused throughout history by every neighbour. Like, they are just Russians who live in the borderlands who speak bastardized version of Russian mixed with polish. They were used by poles, Russians, now Americans. The most unlucky "nation" on earth. And now, time and time again, they get slaughtered and ppl cheer.

[@miquelr2353]

@@CJ-wh7ik you act like ukraine is the aggressor. You understand they fight to protect their families and homeland right?

[@zerq4558]

Today is like the 25th time over the course of 8 days that I see a ruzzian claim that Ukraine's advance has been halted lmao

[@Daisy_3011]

If they keep guessing they're bound to get it right one day.

[@puraLusa]

Yup, and it's still funny as the 1st time 😂

[@justanordinaryaccount9910]

It has been halted - just look at the map. The first invasion force has been completely contained by VDV forces. Ukrainians are now doing small raids crossing border in other places.

[@zerq4558]

@@justanordinaryaccount9910 are you sure? They're still advancing, not as far ofc

[@justanordinaryaccount9910]

@zerq4558 it's hard to tell for sure, but analytics I follow say thats mostly Ukrainian recon forces doing probing and recon, not actual advance. Also, Ukrainian forces committed are too small for meaningful further advance. This doesn't mean russians won already l, as nothing shows that they are ready to mount a serious counteroffensive.

[@lumihanki5631]

There's also the human factor. Finland at several points during the Winter War of 1939-40 had only platoon or 30 something men here and another there, faced against a soviet onslaught of 4000 strong half divisions to full army cores, and yet stood their grounds. Finnish troops at the time also being 17-24 years of age just like the surrendered Russians some days ago seemingly are.

[@jonathanwilliams1065]

That’s the age most front line soldiers are

[@lumihanki5631]

@@jonathanwilliams1065 Wrong.... ..With the Ukrainians the average age is 43 years, and they don't draft under the 24 age group.... ..and it used to be at age 27

[@jonathanwilliams1065]

@@lumihanki5631 then they are a major exception Most nations stop drafting at age 27 Perhaps you are thinking of the reserves that get called up after they’ve completed their initial service The U.S. marines don’t even recruit volunteers after 27, though other branches do

[@jonathanwilliams1065]

@@lumihanki5631 also 43 is close to retirement age for most soldiers, and some in the U.S. retire at 38, if they joined up at 18

[@lumihanki5631]

@@jonathanwilliams1065 I think you're mixing and matching all across the board right now. You started by referring to frontline soldiers, not career military personnel. The frontline soldiers in Ukraine average at 43, which means a significant portion of are above 50 & 60yo

[@bohdanburban5069]

"Russian intelligence" is an oxymoron.

[@ThomasZukovic]

@@bohdanburban5069 "Ukrainian state" is an even more funny oxymoron. Furthermore i believe that ukraina delenda est

[@wereback3771]

Russians are demonstrably some of the most intelligent people on Earth. Funny you wouldn't make this statement about the inhabitants of subsaharan Africa where the average lA is literally in the 60s.

[@launchtexasintothesunforev9551]

@@ThomasZukovic yet it’s there and you have spent like four years trying to take it and you can’t. Lol Russia is a clown show. A dirty nasty dangerous clown show but a comedy all the same.

[@launchtexasintothesunforev9551]

@@wereback3771 he was referring to the state force projection apparatus not the individuals. lol sooooooooo fragile

[@iam5085]

​@@wereback3771I guess he was referring to the Russian government.

[@ivandemko3360]

Ukrainians did this for a number of reasons. Great video.

[@Chiken0163]

your math is off because it is oversimplified. with the "0, 2 or 10" issue, there is a key factor you have forgotten. That key factor is the effect that your troop deployment will have on the probability of each type of attack. If for example, you deploy the average of 5 troops per km, the enemy will no longer send a small raid. This eliminates that option leaving only 2 potential options. This alters the probability of each potential outcome. If you deploy 20 troops per km, the probabilities would be flipped on their heads with 99% chance of nothing happening. Another factor is the type of victory you would win in an event. If you deploy 2 troops per km and there is a small raid, you will probably win, but might sustain a lot of casualties, where if you deploy the 5 troops per km you will be more likely to crush a small raid while sustaining fewer losses. The size of a military attack also is not limited to only 3 sizes but can involve as few or as many troops and supporting equipment as is deemed necessary. You need to factor so much more into the equation than just the potential outcomes and probability of those outcomes.

[@JohnnyChronic18]

"Russian intelligence" is my favorite oxymoron.

[@macher001]

Very much so! :D "hey boss, the are 10 000 troops on our border, we should do something about this" and the boss is like "nah, they wouldn't dare" xD

[@toliklisiy5868]

Moron? You?

[@ghostlightx9005]

I am yet to be convinced that 'pravda' is a word in the russian language.

[@toliklisiy5868]

@@ghostlightx9005 Pravda translated from Russian into English - true

[@macher001]

@@ghostlightx9005 Well I would say it is. It just has a different meaning than in say: Polish, Czech or Slovak language :D

[@Jonathan_Strange]

putin's SMO turns into Kursk's SME (Special Military Evacuation)

[@marklandwehr7604]

The right move is the strategic.Strong points have different values at different times

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

Apparently Gerasimov is gone, replaced by the head of the FSB. With regards to the column that was HIMARS'd, rumour has it that they took out 1000 troops.

[@pseudonym745]

The rumours have added a "0" to the casulty number in one week...

[@klpd666]

Wrong, he is still in place. Only some FSB guy is put into heading the "counter terrorist"operation. Thats all. Stop spreading nonsense.

[@ivancandotti3954]

@@pseudonym745 Does anyone in their right mind really believe that Ukraine will win, and, Russia will lose????

[@nightknght]

jesus

[@arcticwulf5796]

​@@ivancandotti3954Russia has already lost on many fronts. It didn't take over all of Ukraine, added new neutral countries to it's list of hostile nations. Lost billions in wealth, sanctions. Now it's a question how much more it will lose for territory it might not even be able to keep. Ukraine will be able to fight as long at it takes for Russia to leave.

[@viking722nj]

Sorry, you missed it. Budanov signalled that the Ukranians were amassing troops in Sumy to defend against a russian invasion, not preparing for a Ukranian offensive

[@weirdo1060]

Similar to Texas-Mexican war. Santa Anna thought Texas troops were preparing to defend against a nighttime offensive from Mexico. Sam Houston conducted an offensive attack during the hot afternoon while Mexican troops were napping for pre-operation rest.

[@erikreuterskiold5996]

Budanov is beating Russia at their own game, pure Maskerovka.

[@Leo-yr5jb]

You must trusting to enemy intelligence director if you want be Dumbest general in the world.

[@KasumiRINA]

@@erikreuterskiold5996 MaskIrovka is just russian word for disguise it's not anything special and is usually used when describing putting on face paint or something.

[@billd9667]

Budanov put in scared face paint and then attacked.

[@marklandwehr7604]

The line as you call it is called a spine It is the frontier The frontier is abstract and you must understand it As a backbone ...

[@tobiasrietveld3819]

Another reason why the US is hesitant to support Ukraine's efforts to go after Russian targets isn't just the nuclear threat. They also fear collapse of the Russian federation and cival war chaos inside the nuclear armed nation, a situation where nuclear weapons can go missing. This scenario is absolute nightmare fuel for the Pentagon.

[@kerriwilson7732]

There are a lot of degrees between forcing Russians out of Ukraine, and oligarchs or terrorists commandeering nukes. I agree it would be bad. But it wouldn't be likely, let alone inevitable. 🇨🇦💕🇺🇦

[@PinkFZeppelin]

I’m sure the United States has very detailed plans on how to deal with this. Considering they’ve dealt with it when the USSR collapsed.

[@balkangameszp]

Ukraine: OH NOO America helppp help😂

[@kerriwilson7732]

@@balkangameszp Russia: OH NOO North Korea help me...🤣🤣🤣

[@sasin2715]

well, they also estimated the collapse of the USSR to be violent

[@Ofasia777]

While I find this summary excellent both in theory and in practice I think it overlooked the importance of the Russian airforce's attrition in this current vacuum of circumstances. The worst mistakes on the grounds can be obscured, blurred and otherwise camouflaged and forgotten as long as the airforce is on top of things. I would posit that more than anything, weakness of the Russian airforce has been the most determining factor. Not surprising but not confirmed fully until now and quite encouraging for Ukraine in the months and possibly years ahead.

[@knightrider693]

I been wondering where they've been at? They haven't controlled the skies the way I thought they would or could

[@Ofasia777]

@@knightrider693 Before the introduction of the F16s, the Russians were roughly (up to) 50km behind their own lines lobbing cheap, powerful and difficult to intercept gliding bombs at tiny settlements in the east of Ukraine to help create an illusion of progress for Russia. Now that Ukraine has access to reliable flying platforms for their ~180km AMRAAMs, the long term attrition of the Russian airforce will only accelerate. To be fair Russia's airforce outnumber's Ukraine about 15-1 on paper, but in reality, in any one scenario with both side at their best and protected with myriad of anti-air systems it's defenders advantage for all but cruise missiles (which Russia more or less fire as they come out of the factory). Ukraine say fit to make this happen in the last two years. Very purposefully.

[@HockeyVictory66]

It’s not just planes they are short. They are short on recently trained pilots. They are going to pay a serious process when the F-16’s get fully deployed. A lot will depend on Ukrainian pilots. People forget how well trained our pilots and forward air controllers are.

[@Johanman2029]

This words cut deeper, deeper than any blade

[@gfrewqpoiu]

To be fair to all the people who voted for 5 soldiers per km² (even though I voted for 2 per km²): Mr Spaniel did not specify in the poll that we should assume that a lower amount than necessary leads to an automatic failure. Many people in the comments assumed that 5 soldiers per km² would allow the units to hold until reinforcements arrived, which would change the dynamics of the thought experiment quite drastically.

[@igorbednarski8048]

I voted same as you, but I agree - in real conflicts you don't get 100% certainty that an army of 10000 will defeat the enemy, but somehow magically be guaranteed to fail 100% if it's just 9999 soldiers. As many, many battles and wars throughout history show, even significantly outnumbering the enemy doesn't guarantee victory.

[@jrb5077]

He did specify exactly that.

[@KasumiRINA]

I voted for 0 because that lets Ukraine advance faster. What, you were giving advice on how to succeed? The question was what they SHOULD do not what's BETTER for them. XD

[@Wilsontripplets]

​​@@igorbednarski8048you can go back to many ancient battles and see that even though your enemy may have more troops then you, logistics wins wars and strategy wins battles.

[@igorbednarski8048]

@@Wilsontripplets that was exactly my point

[@calvin2641]

Oh my goodness, the moment I heard of this I needed to see the lines on the map

[@TheSubpremeState]

Feints are a vital part of game theory. As I learned in poker and boxing. I ❤ Game Theory

[@X_Numb]

To add to the second point, Ukraine use of ambushes, Himars and drones is particularly effective against troops on the move. In the east there are more Russian troops which are also more entrenched so less rotation happens. Instead of a huge amount of equipment and men moving, mostly only resupplying happens. It looks like the combined effect of straining supply lines and destroying convoys causes a lot more damage than the offensives themselves.

[@JohnVerdon-JohnVerdon]

A country that issues it's own currency can never run out of its currency - the constraining issues is NOT how to 'pay for it' - rather it is always 'how to resource it' - the resources, people and capacity. Paying is a technocratic issue of creating 'deposits' in bank accounts

[@pieterfaes6263]

Currency does rely on the trust people have in it having value though. If that trust erodes, it can break the economy that is built on it. Trust is a very precious resource in that regard, and probably one of, if not the most constraining issue when it comes to the economy.

[@daddad8707]

It can't run out, but every time more is issued it devalues all issued currency until it has no inherent value.

[@Curt_Sampson]

@@daddad8707 That's not always the case. As the OP said (perhaps not in entirely the clearest way), the primary thing is (simplifying somewhat) how much labour you have available. If you have unused labour capacity, creating more money and paying those people to work is unlikely to cause inflation because, though the money supply has grown, the total amount of goods and services available has also grown due to that created by the previously surplus labour.

[@JohnVerdon-JohnVerdon]

@@daddad8707 Absolutely NOT true - the value of a currency is not determined by how much currency is in the economy - rather the value is determined by the productive capacity of an economy. Even Greenspan and other Federal Reserve Chairmans have admitted this - the most classic is in response to Paul Rian (then speaker of the house) trying to get the Fed-Chair that social security is facing insolvency - And the chair responded that the Government can always pay it's debts - insolvency is never the problem - What the chair worried about was whether the economy could/would be producing goods that people wanted to buy.

[@stefano8936]

The value of a currency is determined as everything else: by how many people want to get it. If no one needs/wants to own rubles, the value falls. The only reason it's keeping its value is due to China and India keeping buying Russian gas.

[@lukutsouthwell1696]

An EXCELLENT ‘diagnosis’ for the non-military man’s “digestion”!

[@anterogradus]

Russia has conscriptions. A lot of conscripts actually were taken as POW during initial hours of the offense. Russia doesn't want to deploy them into a battle for the same reason as why it doesn't want to call mass mobilization - young people, basically children, dying is bad for public outlook. This doesn't stop from coercing conscripts to sign a contract and send them to warzone as "volunteers" (it is estimated that a third of conscripts sign a contract), and also conscripts protect the borders, as in Kursk region, serve in fleet (there was a lot of conscripts among the casualties on Moskva battlecruiser), and so on.

[@GeneralGayJay]

Ukraine should liberate Belarus. I think it would be possible. A large portion of the people would support a change in regime. And Belarus is a valid target since attacks came from there.

[@weirdo1060]

Long term, maybe; short term, no. While Lukashenko is unpopular, Belarus still has its own troops along with Russian reserves. Uprisings require planning and communication, and Ukraine is still working towards liberating seized territories.

[@RepublicaSindicalista_doBrasil]

In what world are you living?

[@lunabite]

People forget its always what you least expect during war that happens not the most. Knowing which will win or loose you the war thats where strategies come in

[@freeradicals9611]

Excellent analysis, raising complex questions. Please keep the game theory analysis updated! 🇺🇦👍💥

[@randomuser5443]

Putin: “three day adventure” Putin, looking suspiciously like aku made him a body double: “HOW?”

[@ivancandotti3954]

Does anyone in their right mind really believe that Ukraine will win, and, Russia will lose????

[@leifvejby8023]

@@ivancandotti3954 Anyway, as far as I can see terrorruzzia has no chance of winning. Ukraine is fighting for its life, ruzzia is just after loot.

[@tappajaav]

@@ivancandotti3954 Does anyone in their right mind really believe that the source of this repeated comment is a real, breathing, thinking individual human?

[@daddad8707]

@@ivancandotti3954 Yes, me.

[@ShadowRulah]

​@@ivancandotti3954Baby Russia already lost. This complete farce showed the world Russia is no longer a serious military power and that's to say nothing of the fact Finland joined NATO. Take all of Ukraine- it buys no security because the bear has no teeth.

[@robbietorkelsonn8509]

There is a point people aren't talking about. Russia historically traded land for defense. It worked that way for Napoleon and Hitler. However ... breaching the border in itself is a clear sign that Ukraine is by no means beaten and investments in Ukraine can still give a huge peace dividend. There is a 0% chance of Ukranians reaching the outskirts of Moscow. In that light, letting an invasion happen and then gathering an army to throw them out again is the right strategy (see history). The point is ... that is not the point. The point is that Western investors are again opening their wallets.

[@somerandommemedude1709]

Lure the enemy into a trap?

[@malcolmbrown5261]

Another well thought out, well presented and narrated video, good stuff William

[@blaydCA]

It happened because, just like a sinking ship... " the front fell off "

[@rokkraljkolesa9317]

doesn't sound very typical

[@blaydCA]

@@rokkraljkolesa9317 A wave hit it...

[@Dave_Sisson]

It's based on the famous satirical clip *The front fell off* where a politician refuses to acknowledge reality. kzbin.info/www/bejne/aZ6YoquQosR9p68

[@rokkraljkolesa9317]

@@Dave_Sisson thank you, Peter Griffin

[@kashhusain8154]

Thanks for the proper subtitles/captions

[@franklincord2812]

My only issue with this video is that when you talked about US reluctance to approve weapons shipments to Ukraine, you used an image of President Joe Biden, instead of pointing out that reluctance is a result of Kremlin-aligned Republican politicians who support "Putin's Poodle" aka former President Donald Trump.

[@anonymous-go1tq]

Your brainwashed by the mainstream media. The Russian trump fabrication was disproven at all levels. It was a straight up lie. Do you wonder why you never hear about it now? Especially with the election? It’s because everyone who isn’t 100% brainwashed knows it was made up

[@Fatherofheroesandheroines]

Russia didn't attack until AFTER Trump was out of the presidency. So this is ludicrous.

[@PersimmonHurmo]

Red lines turned out to be brown lines, as always 🤎😂🤎

[@puraLusa]

pinkish lines *

[@larsfrommars1378]

12:39 I made that mistake once when calculating the necessary provision for warranty cases. Fascinating that this gave me the knowledge to jump to the "right" answer

[@m.streicher8286]

Kharkiv, Kherson, Kursk... :3

[@tappajaav]

The white-hooded ghost influence reaches far further in space and time than I would've thought :0

[@bryankoppang5521]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@Tanktaco]

What I love about this exercise is that if you're bad at it you can mistakenly attribute your opponent to be over commiting to forces required to prevent an incursion.

[@soundslave]

Not sure if I'm stupid or a savant - the question of how many troops looked simple and logical instantly. I got it right without needing to think

[@nookbandit]

This is the internet, we’re all stupid

[@puraLusa]

I didn't answer as there wasn't enough info to make an informed guess.

[@barryharding1842]

I went for the right answer because my maths isn't up to any other!

[@Curt_Sampson]

@@puraLusa There was enough there not just to guess, but to get the correct answer. The first big clue was when he mentioned this is a "game theory" question. It seemed fairly obvious to me that one should go for the game theory answer.

[@soundslave]

@@puraLusa it's a game of hypotheticals. The info you need is always provided. Anything not provided doesn't need to be considered. Otherwise the game is just "guess what I'm thinking" instead of "look at these numbers/evidence"

[@nullc0ntext]

Once they capture that power plant and shut it down, oooooh boy will Vladdy be maddy.

[@kopazwashere]

I love the short rundown on static defense (binary condition of win or lose) and elastic defense (use some troops to delay and then have mobile brigades reinforce).

[@Holammer]

"... what we are observing is a significant failure on the part of Russian intelligence. " **on-screen image lingers on Bortnikov** Amusingly he was put in charge of the Kursk situation instead of Gerasimov.

[@AlexxAmadeo]

That’s because Putin doesn’t trust the military, only the FSB, consequences be damned.

[@seanbrazell7095]

Add to all that the stunning collapse of Trump and the GOP in the polls in the US and Putin is having one no good terrible week.

[@dendyer694]

Thank you William for you excellent updates and useful insights 👍🇺🇦

[@richardwatts6944]

It was 14 weeks since they announced a new mobilisation initiative when they launched this current offensive. How long does it take to complete basic training for an average Ukrainian? Perhaps this is what they intended to achieve with that law passed in April?

[@Leo-yr5jb]

Basic training for second line 3 month it 12 weeks.

[@richardwatts6944]

@@Leo-yr5jb So basically, right on time for this offensive. Nice.

[@Leo-yr5jb]

@@richardwatts6944 they for offences supporting logistic for elit powers, and they catch military who mimic to civilians. It very easy by passports but it not fast you must see all people in area. More catch more Ukrainian back home.