Why Some Republicans Voted To Convict Trump And Others Didn't l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

[@nattata9273]

Nathaniel is absolutely KILLING the "pandemic hair".

[@stuarttierney6709]

I miss Claire

[@fToo]

loving Nathaniel's "surfer dude" hair

[@catc6717]

I miss Clare

[@tylerhackner9731]

Some people put country over party, some didn’t

[@OneDerscoreOneder]

more complex than that

[@christinebenson518]

@@OneDerscoreOneder No it's not. Either you uphold your oath to the constitution or you don't. Think of it in easier terms, during a religious Christian wedding there are vows saying you promise to love, honor and cherish. If you decide to cheat on your spouse and treat them like crap, you're not keeping your vows.

[@OneDerscoreOneder]

​@@christinebenson518 I'm actually saying the opposite of what you think I'm saying. Even the republicans who chose to convict weren't really putting country over party. The video we're commenting on explains how their party doesn't have as much sway over them basically just due to luck.

[@jakemccluremd]

It really is that simple. 👍🏼

[@buncha3arrows195]

@@OneDerscoreOneder Yeah it's actually always political capital over all else

[@dwightballard3868]

What a crack up- loved it when Nathaniel said "lady's and gentleman, I rest my case" But I think Nate has an excellent point. Like people in Southern CT tend to like the NY Giants, whereas the Northern Connecticut folks would tend to be Pats fans. Spending time in Northern NY close to the border, it does have more of a NE feel to it culturally.

[@jakemccluremd]

Northern NY doesn’t pull for Buffalo?

[@dwightballard3868]

@@jakemccluremd No doubt Jake. However, people from Northern CT tend to be Pats fans. I was referring to N. NY as having a NE type of a feel culturally. I grew up in Western Mass and lived in VT for a while, and they look and feel similarly in Northern NY.

[@zacharyroussie4746]

Yeah it depends on where exactly in NY were talking about. Like, east of the adirondacks maybe. Places like Plattsburgh and Ticonderoga do have a bit of that New England feel.

[@buckyharris9465]

I grew up in the Hudson Valley of NY, 100 miles north of NYC and a short drive from the Connecticut border. Even though I lived in a small town, everyone listened to WABC and read the NY Daily News (or the Times if they were rich & snooty), so our universe was dominated by NYC. We definitely didn't feel kinship with New England. Lots of Yankees fans!

[@birchtree2274]

@@buckyharris9465 yes, the Hudson Valley is NY, all the way. Plattsburgh is much more New England-facing

[@chezfisto]

The Democratic party should move all primaries to a single day. They can call it super duper Tuesday

[@Peekul1]

So much of my life is determined by Mitch Mcconnell's opinion. "It's my opinion I can't convict this guy." "It's my opinion that I don't have to swear in this judge." It's all one man's opinion and interpretation of a 250 year old, purposely vague document.

[@davidwright7193]

Can you run for president when your residential address is a cell block in Sing Sing?

[@paytonmcdermott9111]

Where's Perry?

[@DarthHawthorne]

Last podcast he was down south (Texas?). He might not have reliable access right now.

[@brentonclark9506]

Dooby dooby doo-wah, dooby dooby doo-wah

[@studtistics2448]

@@brentonclark9506 bruh that killed me.

[@Yahntia]

Hey, where's Perry?

[@buckyharris9465]

Go Rakich! Nathaniel Rakich is an excellent addition to the panel -- articulate, coherent, confident -- and in this segment he even out-argued Nate on his own turf! I confess, when I saw that Perry Bacon wasn't part of the conversation, I had second thoughts about watching -- but now I look forward to Rakich's next appearance. Sadly, 538 still needs a strong voice in the soprano/mezzosoprano range. I'd love it if ABC decided to bring Clare Malone back, but since that seems less likely all the time, management really needs to find a worthy successor.

[@diegoramiresusp]

not to mention he's also cute as a pup

[@diegoramiresusp]

Gee... ain't Nathaniel a cutie omg I'm in love

[@seanhuff4858]

That cold open call-out 😂🤣

[@scotpgot]

Including bodybuilding, Arnold would legitimately be a star of "stage and screen".

[@gordonh113]

OK, sort of, but try to imagine Arnold playing any role in Death of a Salesman or Hamilton or M Butterfly . . . .

[@birchtree2274]

As a Vermonter living on the lake, I completely agree. Northern NY is like us!

[@josiahferguson6194]

On the issue of having caucus and primary, Minnesota switched to a primary for determining presidential delegates but still has a caucus to engage local activists and write the state party platform.

[@s0ngf0rx]

can claire ever be a guest on these pods :'(

[@nikolaos9652]

The hair!

[@rogerwilco2]

11:50 "The choices that Republican politicians have made" ARE "The current political environment"

[@forx400]

Would partisan non-response bias, which is sometimes seen after "bad seeming" events, in combination with this poll's weighting to favor established partisan identification levels, create or contribute to a underestimate of the potential total republican Trump opinion delta?

[@gordonh113]

I wouldn't decide where to put the first Dem primaries based solely on which state's demographics are most representative of the national party. That's not totally irrelevant of course, but I would also factor in whether the early states are swing states, so that the primaries generate enthusiasm for the party and its candidates in states they will actually need to win in November. Illinois is the most representative state according to the panel, but everyone knows Illinois will vote Dem in the fall, so nothing is gained electorally by getting Illinois Dems excited and organized for an early primary. Likewise Indiana and Oklahoma were high on the list in terms of being representative, but the Dems will never win those states in November.

[@jacksonstorm2416]

Are we certain that Galen and Nathaniel aren’t related?

[@frbe0101]

Data always matters, the problem is there not enough now to make any solid conclusions.

[@jaquescartier3838]

you mean why a handful of mostly retiring senators voted to convict and the overwhelming majority of the party who prides itself on respecting the 'worlds most deliberative body' didn't

[@ctriamimgons]

where can we get a copy of the report referenced at 36:10?

[@richmorpurgo5554]

Clare.

[@NadirDbouk]

Oh my God, the one podcast I missed! It's pronounced 'Na-dirr' like sadder. For example, "I would be much gladder, and less sadder, if Nate Silver pronounced my name Nadir!

[@RemedialRob]

Claaaaaaaaaiiirre!!!

[@vikmanphotography7984]

Idk why we don't just do all caucuses/primaries in the same day

[@jacquelineleitch7050]

Man if podcasts were possible when I was a young feminist in the young feminist 70s there never would have been Reagan or a reactionary backlash. Imagine that you all are who you are but you are your Mom.

[@ahamed4152]

dam your old

[@saccarius]

When did Nate R get so hot?

[@buckyharris9465]

I think it was the rosy lighting on his face :)

[@TizBaz5]

Where's Clare, though?

[@cpotisch]

You didn’t hear?

[@TizBaz5]

@@cpotisch it's more of a rhetorical question

[@vincentwetzel4521]

Rakich is the best!

[@LiquorWithJazz]

I thought Nathaniel was Galen...

[@Dr__Feelgood]

Can you guys PLEASE, PLEASE switch to a darker background, if not black then a grey or something to mimic the "dark mode" and not this current ultra-bright white light situation? Watching the video especially at night on a big screen, iPad or even just my phone can feel like walking out of the movie theater directly out into the bright noon sunlight. It's pretty jarring and uncomfortable at times. Thank you for reading and the consideration!!!

[@bernicerichter8944]

The motto of the Republican Party should be: l must find where my voters are so that I can lead them.

[@glenncalkins4764]

I don't t think any California Dem would chance another Shwarzenegger

[@jbradleymusic]

Nate's actually right about "cultural New England".

[@benjialtman8390]

Please bring back Clare.

[@NicholasAdamsDPM]

So you lost me at 10:00 mark where you talk about the elected officials go along too often with the voters. We elected them. They should listen to us otherwise what is the point of an election. That goes for any office and any party as not just this issue from January 6. This is the problem in Washington and why no one trusts the government. They all have their interests in mind and not the people who elected them.

[@kendrickhjelmberg6426]

They were talking about the fact that when elected officials take a stance on an issue they shape the opinion of partisan voters that are part of thier party. Such as when Donald Trump took a stance against mail in voting. His supporters voted in person much more then the average voter.

[@parkerhanson4009]

Volume differences, hard to hear, boring, not concise. No offense, skipping

[@JohnArmwood]

Once again one of your panelists Nathanial, made a ridiculous comment and no one said anything. In your discussion of the democratic primary order one of your panelists suggested that the Democratic Caucus in Iowa and New Hampshire and moving Iowa and South Carolina. In discussing South Carolina primary African Americans make a large amount of Democratic voters where there are far less White Democrats. Your panelists seemed to be discounting the weight of those Black votes. A primary for Democrats targets Democrats who in the South are largely Black. Nathanial is no Nate Silver.

[@buncha3arrows195]

Illinois would probably be a better pick instead of Iowa or New Hampshire

[@slianyong7550]

Voters and _Big Dollar Donors_ , especially since those seem to be falling off for GOP ...

[@trickyfish100]

Perry's a WAY better commentator than Rakich.

[@Blakey9537]

They offer different things, both excellent in their own way.

[@SallyBlumCGN]

Why are there 3 gay guys here? How about some representation of literally everybody else!!

[@buncha3arrows195]

I agree, there should be 4 gay guys here

[@buckyharris9465]

How do we know all three are gay?

[@Diana1000Smiles]

This is when I googled Nate Silver and 538. ☺️ I already been to Disney World, it was fun. I especially liked the Parking Lot Names.