Why Tesla's Robotaxis will DOMINATE Ride Hailing Despite MASSIVE Hurdles [Ding Dong, Uber's Dead]

[@ConnectingODots]

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[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

These people are missing the point here who cares about having to have a driver you can have multiple of these systems and not have to employ drivers at all... what we need is minds thinking about how to create the proper Ubi implementation like a Ubi based off the total automated production percentage of the GDP we can calculate how much tools have helped us increase our production capacity and how many humans it would take to replicate that production capacity without those tools and base the Ubi off of that total automated production percentage... this means I say do away with jobs in the economy and automate them the consumer Market doesn't eventually collapse due to the consumer being deleted AKA jobs being deleted... this protects the corporations.

[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

Both these guys are total morons and we're probably born into money...

[@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler]

Literally all of their concerns Elon Musk addresses with production... these morons are obviously short Tesla or they own stock in Uber or Lyft...

[@richinvancouver3100]

On top of all that Uber is 30+ billion dollars in the hole! When the stock declines massively, how are they going to make up this gap?

[@joegibbs2508]

One thing you didn't talk about. You said the cost of a Model 3 for Tesla would be $32,362.70. But what about their cost for a Tesla that is a lease return. That's WAY less after all the money paid for the lease. And the car should have less than 30,000 miles on it! Tesla could have the fleet doing like those buses after rush hour and supply energy at peak hours. Then at night, during off-peak pricing, recharge and get ready for the next day. Like you said, during the night, they don't need fast charging to be charged in time for the next day.

[@CampTeslaFun]

Great points! Also, autonomous cabs will have the built-in 10-20% cost advantage of not having to tip a driver.

[@ConnectingODots]

Great point! Will add that to Part 2

[@bobwallace9753]

And for some people, not having to interact with a driver. Could be valuable to someone who can use their drive time to make sensitive business calls.

[@ChuckHolland-i4b]

That won't stop them from pandering for one!

[@paulborneo7535]

A huge advantage. Good point.

[@billyrio3767]

Why say that? Maybe a tip gets you a call to a bellboy for luggage.

[@cybergigafactory]

Please do another Robotaxi video! I agree with most of your points and would love how you see the future of Robotaxis 👍

[@ErikGoff]

Maybe one overlooked point, a robotaxi could also deliver pizzas or bring packages

[@andrewsaint6581]

Or documents carried by couriers. Great point.

[@Bmeri3]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/eKG2fXyFYqidmZIsi=iAwVzZnGyyiTlX40

[@Brad-sb1dk]

Only if it has a Teslabot to deliver to the door.

[@CiaranMcHale]

@@Brad-sb1dk That may not be a requirement. Today we view the ringing of the doorbell to signify that a delivery has arrived. With "delivery by robotaxi", an automated phone call could be made to the customer's smart phone to signify "Your order has arrived and is waiting in the robotaxi outside" and then the customer goes to the robotaxi and waves the phone near a sensor on the robotaxi (or presses a button in an app installed on the smartphone) to open the robotaxi and retrieve the delivery. Will this change in delivery procedure be acceptable to all customers? No. But I suspect it may be acceptable to many/most customers and hence make it viable. And for the remaining customers... Perhaps they will have to pay a higher fee to get delivery to their door via a human/Teslabot who travelled in the robotaxi.

[@irisfinchmusic]

Yes. As prices drop, new use cases will emerge.

[@andywurst4873]

To address peak vs average - I'd imagine Tesla would own the average load fleet and use private owner's cars to handle the peak demand. This would minimize the CapEx required by a single entity.

[@Leoninmiami]

Elon has stated this several times. Not sure how they missed this. Plus the future is clearly driverless cars, what are these guys even talking about?

[@MashDaddy]

Missing this obvious point invalidates the discussion 🤡

[@peterjarneson]

Most important lesson from this video: Even some billionaires, who are supposedly financial geniuses, can have no clue what they are talking about regarding Tesla. The tsunami of change that this company will bring is gonna shock and awe a whole lotta people.

[@deficator750]

tsunamis are bad so im assuming you a refering to tesla bankruptcy. they are speaking of all the financials about robotaxi but the technology does'nt exist, anywhere. Remember all the changes elon made ever since he lied in 2019. He said by 2020 fsd will be on the road and robo taxis would be in gull swing, where? its 2024 and nothing, in fact they deleted the entire code no too long ago and went with visual learning. What about their ridiculous robot? its completely novice and can't do anything. Now i know people said things about apple and amazon, google, mfst in their infant days BUT tesla is'nt in its infant stage, the technology they are trying to develop have been around for decades its nothing new, its the level of tech they are trying to reach is like star trek fairy tale levels - not going to happen.

[@kellymoses8566]

Tesla Robotaxi is going to be the next Theranos.

[@davidwestwater2219]

It's going to be disaster

[@cybertrade7908]

Just goes to show..... very few people know what they are talking about 😁😂🤣😆

[@BadBrucey]

LOL. I thought you were talking about Musk. There is zero chance the robotaxi will come out this year, just like it didn't come out in 2019. Musk is just a snake oil salesman who makes promises to fool investors.

[@RonLWilson]

Quite interesting! Another use for a Robotaxi during non peek times is to deliver goods such as last mile deliveries. These can be "manned" by Tesla bots that leave the goods on people front porch and pick up goods from distribution centers.

[@ConnectingODots]

👍 If optimus arrives via cybercab and brings supplies to feed a 3D printer with, this could be a bizarre version of Uber Eats😂

[@rogerfroud300]

... which is fine except how does the package get from the car to the delivery address's door?

[@CombatSport777]

@@rogerfroud300Optimus would walk the package to the front door

[@CiaranMcHale]

@@ConnectingODots It would just have to bring crayons if the destination address is a military one.

[@bobwallace9753]

The problem of building a fleet to cover peak demand. Don't overlook the possibility of shaving the peak. 1) Offer much lower per mile rates during off peak. People who have flexible schedules will, to some extent, adjust their time of travel to save money. We might see people start work at 7am rather than during the peak which develops a bit later. Companies might do shift time adjustments for jobs such as call centers as a bene for their not well paid employees or in factories that run two or three shifts per day. 2) Offer reduced rates for being willing to share a ride. If the normal asking rate is $0.80/mile offer $0.40/mile if someone is will to let one or more people share the ride as long as the route is efficient. If that results in an average of two-butts in seats it shaves the need for peak demand car by one. Drop the rate lower and, perhaps, reduce the number of needed cars further.

[@larsnystrom6698]

By being fully charged at peak demand, and charge during low demand hours, they make better use of the vehicles. This might not be game-changing, but it all does adds up.

[@rogerfroud300]

Alternatively, do what people do now. Buy a cheap car for their own personal use. Job done. No clever logistics required.

[@bobwallace9753]

@@rogerfroud300 I don't think you understand the economics of robotaxis.

[@bobwallace9753]

@@larsnystrom6698 It's not an issue of being charged. It's about having enough vehicles to cover peak use hours then having a portion of those vehicles unused off peak. That increases the capex.

[@244col]

It will not work for many. My work place is over 60 miles. They will not take a passenger that far too have to return empty. Just like the cab service rejects fares now.

[@douggolde7582]

Tesla needs a van. My family travels with a wheelchair.

[@matthewhunty]

Peugeot E traveller. The only problem is it doesn’t have a heat pump so putting the air-conditioning on is a bad idea.

[@CiaranMcHale]

Rather than aim for 100% market coverage immediately, it makes financial sense for Tesla to first target its robotaxi service to deal with the most common use case of one or two passengers in the dedicated robotaxi and leverage Model 3/S for three or four passengers, and then later introduce a wheelchair-accessible vehicle. Or perhaps Tesla will cede the wheelchair-accessible vehicle market to existing companies that currently cater for that market.

[@douggolde7582]

@@CiaranMcHale Existing wheelchair van services are unreliable. Not a good business model. Takes time at both ends to load and secure. I don’t expect tesla to improve on this situation.

[@tommynickels4570]

Tesla could help with the homeless crisis by building awesome homes on wheels. In Canada, we do not have sufficient skilled workers. Costs are high. And immigration is full on. Homelessness becoming a real problem.

[@jonahbert111]

How do you keep a person with kids from putting small kids in the trunk? Or improperly securing them in a seat?

[@alanhall6909]

The margins will go up huge at first since Tesla will be competing directly with Uber at a slightly lower price. But as the number of robotaxis ramps up, the fare price is going to drop. The Uber model will be gone, and eventually, robotaxis are going to compete with robotaxis. Basic supply and demand. You can't put an infinite number of robotaxis on the road and make infinite money. Consumers will save money. However, the overall utilization/demand will go up dramatically over time as more people dump their cars and switch to hailing, a long slow process that Elon will push for to get people out of ICE, especially older ICE vehicles. Profits will be based on high volume and low margin, like McDonald's. However, a huge amount of profit will be made right from the beginning and for a long time because Tesla will be profiting off making the robotaxis for $20k and putting them on the road collecting $50k of fares. That will be more than a 100% return on investment. However, to speed things up, Tesla will license the FSD to other manufacturers, lowering profits. Still, overall profits are going to be very high until someone else brings a competitive robotaxi system to the market. The technological monopoly won't last forever but it will certainly be more difficult to overcome than making a cheap good-tasting hamburger. Not all robotaxis will be cheap little cars. People will demand and pay for more luxurious vehicles too, and specialty vehicles like trucks to carry furniture and other large items. Perhaps the trucks will come with a robot to load and unload for you?

[@robgannon5008]

As a former Uber driver I can say they are a bad company and the world will be a better place once Uber is gone. I can't wait.

[@larsnystrom6698]

They do what they can to exploit the drivers, and that will be gone. But the drivers might have cars that can enter the Robotaxi fleet. They then have other partners than Uber to compete for their cars. Not as dependent on the goodwill of Uber, that is!

[@JoeMcMorrow-k7e]

I looked into Uber and could not get anything meaningful out of them with regard to my potential earnings and my costs. Then in my area they only offered food delivery and I gave up on it.

[@fredhearty1762]

Thanks for the overview. A second installment, including your financial analysis and implementation strategy, would be much appreciated.

[@RaymondVolker]

BG2 are major investors in Uber. So their video is just a stall tactic for people not to dump Uber Stock. They will be the first to jump ship once RoboTaxi is running and proves the disruption. Please let's see Part 2.

[@garethrobinson2275]

Thanks for that context. It came across as a worst-case scenario or biased debate.

[@MoreOnEVs]

I think you are absolutely right about how this will all shake out, though I think it will take a while. I think Tesla will begin its robotaxi network nationwide, only with drivers behind the wheel. They will use FSD while operating which will generate massive amounts of training data very quickly as well as introduce the software to the public in a safe way. Once the Ai becomes capable they will remove drivers, region by region, as legislation allows. In the end, they will disrupt ride hailing, but it won’t happen overnight

[@jameswoll]

keep the robotaxi analysis coming!

[@randyborges]

Wow, you're an absolute beast man. Amazing content!

[@ConnectingODots]

Appreciate it!

[@jeffharmed1616]

IMHO the Cybercab shape will resemble a Smartcar with a high roof to allow seats and cages to be interchangeable: seats during commuter times and cages for the rest of the time shuttling commercial goods in cages from warehouses to stores, replacing the vans and small trucks commonly used today.

[@stereoreviewx]

Yes, good thinking the more I think about this Robo taxi if it really works it’s just gonna make the iPhone looks like a non-event

[@saoirsepaisley274]

AWS moment #3: With the addition of a "last foot delivery" robot (Optimus would be awesome but might be overkill), the off-peak robotaxis could do package and food deliveries.

[@charliemagpie]

Tx for picking this up. I had a strong suspicion these 2 smart guys should know better. You were kind to them. Love to hear more.

[@garethrobinson2275]

I think they do know better. It may well have been a great example of a biased, worst case scenario.

[@dylanpeterson6449]

My rubutal to your rebutal A1: - 17% gross margin is over all cars. Typically higher end cars/features have higher GM that increases this value overall. I do not think its safe to use the average GM value on the lowest tier cost. Reality is that on the cheapest car the Gross Margin is much lower. - Typically when you talk about using 1 vertical (i.e. car production) to justify a 2nd vertical (i.e. robotaxi), the first vertical must also make money and can not operate at a break even to justify the 2nd vertical without the 2nd vertical being a much bigger opportunity. A2: - Cars that come off lease are at a lower AP hardware level and might not be sutable to FSD/Robo Taxi fleet. A simple software update might not be enough because of needing better camera's, compute required. A3: - Your entire justification is needing half ICE over lifetime because energy offsets leave to lower cost (this assumes a LOT of usage of the vehicle), but when we start talking about needing peak demand your capital costs of expensive cars becomes a burden (as they dont get the usage required for cost offset). A5/A6: 100% agree, not only optimizing battery, but optimizing the form factor itself which i think is where Tesla has a disadvantage. Having a 2 seater for individual last mile rides, a "Zoox" style for commuter (i.e. going to mall, work) and ultimatly higher capacity van/short bus for city-city trips. Higher density form factors will be required from cost standpoint but also traffic management. If you wanted me to do B/C segments let me know.

[@jmattoxriskpro]

Regarding school busses, autonomous vehicles, even existing models could likely get kids to school cheaper than the current plan. This would be especially cheap when school gets out in the afternoon as this is a low demand time for ride hailing.

[@awebinar2772]

Yes give us an extra video about the cybercap

[@alanhall6909]

Very good analysis. Uber will be necessary for some time. Robotaxis are going to take time to earn people's trust and be produced. Uber is necessary not only to fill in for peak times but to help the transition from owning your own car to using fares entirely. The resale value of used cars, especially ICE cars without FSD, is going to drop, slowly at first, but faster over time until nobody is willing to buy a new one for that reason. Classic cars, especially Ferrari's, muscle cars, and other exotic vehicles will survive as even more rare and unusual collectibles. "Wow, look, an old gasoline car being manually driven!"

[@johndoughty7438]

I’ll bet you Teslas in-house cost of building a Robo taxi is probably around $15,000. That’s what he will be paying for his Robo taxis.

[@littlebrothermoneywithmich6178]

Yeah, I guess it could be lower than $32k due to the sales costs being avoided.

[@davidsoom1551]

How is it Elon and all you geniuses don't understand liability laws and statistical possibilities. You treat this like a junior high school science project. You've wasted enough of our tax dollars already and you can't succeed on your own. Robo Taxis on Aug.8th. Ha ha ha ha!

[@PoorRichard1776]

Much like when you AirBNB a house, you often put your personal stuff in a locked closet, having the ability to lock out opening of the Frunk when operating as a Robotaxi gives owners a safe place to keep any personal stuff (sunglasses, water bottles, snacks, jackets, child booster seats, umbrellas, etc.) they like to keep in their car.

[@johannesdolch]

First :P I am again surprised how you can provide new ideas and insights to someone who already follows the Tesla Story closely. Kudos.

[@ConnectingODots]

LOL True!

[@ShinkaTV]

Tesla running fleets vs selling/leasing their fleets to shepherds: Tesla COULD hire a large workforce to clean/maintain their cybercabs, but that seems like a headache. They could use Tesla bots to do the jobs, but is that really their most beneficial/profitable use case? Car cleaner would be a minimum wage job, while most factory jobs are higher paying. More likely, Tesla will use the bots to lower their assembly margins, and lease them out to other manufacturing companies at high wages instead - so I think it makes the most sense to use shepherds. Which leaves the puzzle of structure. I think if I was Tesla, I'd be looking to sell & lease cars out just as I am doing now, and let the free market take care of itself. First-movers like Hertz would make large orders, drive demand up, which would increase the price/lease rates, or the commercial FSD price. Hertz would get a fleet of robotaxis, as would Uber. Meanwhile, Ford and BYD will license FSD, allowing shepherds to choose from a variety of self driving cars... but everyone is choosing Tesla's software to run them. Cars are selling. Software is selling. World is green.

[@garethrobinson2275]

It's entirely possible although from what Tesla have already said and shown it would appear that they will at least begin with their own service. I think there will be a combination of operators but all will pay Tesla and Tesla might well be the main player.

[@marcusnichols5595]

Tesla FSD boards have two SoC's. If this is for redundancy, most of the time while driving, one SoC is likely idle. This idle compute could be available to Tesla for distributed computation or inference. If this is practical, I would expect Tesla to eventually offer customers a perk such as free premium connectivity, or reduced lease rates in exchange for access to their idle compute at the cost of some increased power draw.

[@erikbarsingerhorn4485]

No driver is one costumer extra.

[@davidsoom1551]

Let Optimus drive these things........all this is ridiculous.

[@waggingtongue]

Good video. You forgot all the delivery service that can occur in the middle of the night. Door dash Uber eats and all the drivers amazon uses to deliver goods, all this can happen anytime of day

[@johndoughty7438]

They also have the curiosity advantage. Everybody’s gonna wanna try to drive in a driverless car. Even old people, it will make them feel young again, because it’s a little dangerous. You wait, it’s gonna be the biggest thing that hits the world in a long time.

[@DerekDavis213]

_Everybody’s gonna wanna try to drive in a driverless car_ Wrong. Many people don't trust robotaxis. Especially people that have personal experience with FSD, which has been in beta for almost *four* *years* .

[@Dularr]

If the elderly want to live dangerously, they should walk.

[@garethrobinson2275]

​@Dularr Thanks for that insight Dulard.

[@garethrobinson2275]

​@Dularr Thanks for that insight Dulard.

[@DerekDavis213]

@@garethrobinson2275 You mean dullard. The irony is hilarious!

[@ralphwagenet852]

Very informative. Well done!

[@MathGPT]

Let’s not forget, Gurley was literally the smartest guy in the room for several years getting Uber to where it is, the biggest private market growth stock possibly in history.

[@ConnectingODots]

Huge respect for him!

[@635574]

Thats way more relevant than how he was introduced there.

[@pebre79]

They could be talking their book

[@mschmydt]

Uber was the disrupter and it was a smart person necessary to make this happen! Now it is the turn for Tesla to be the disrupter and Uber can not match the business modell of the robotaxi platform Tesla will be able to offer

[@EvEvangelist]

@@mschmydt how would you launch CyberCab? Worth an episode with Nick & Larry (only)

[@todd1771]

Exciting times ahead. This is like the Model 3 rollout and Giga Shanghai. There is a clear pathway to success but getting there is always tougher than expected. The biggest hurdle is "good" FSD and the geniuses at Tesla are impressing the hell out of us w/ V12.

[@larslysdahl4586]

Finally I was waiting for somebody to do a reaction video to this podcast episode.

[@mikeazeka1753]

Another advantage of robotaxis is women are often concerned about their personal safety relative to the driver with Uber and Lyft. No concern with robotaxis, so if the cost of a robotaxi ride is cheaper than Uber, it will reach critical mass a bit sooner with women.

[@DerekDavis213]

How many Uber drivers have harmed women passengers? Uber drivers are carefully vetted by the company, before being hired as a driver.

[@mikem2844]

Starlink will connect the idle cars for use of distributed computing offering like aws. Connection will be high bandwidth. Can be used for ai training and inference

[@EdwinBrito]

Please keep produc8ng videos like this 👍👍

[@donatheanx8660]

As always, another great video. Gerstner and Gurly may have underestimated or missed bunch of Tesla cost-advantages , or maybe, just maybe they are trying to protect their investment in Uber? Seems that Jason Calacanis of All-in-Pod game appears to be making similar self-serving comments. And yes, please make more videos expanding your thoughts further on this subject.

[@juliahello6673]

During peak hours riders can share vehicles or pay huge costs for a single passenger ride. Commuters don’t all ride at the same time. There is time for most vehicles to carry passengers to work several times during rush hour. On off peak hours the cars could carry cargo.

[@glennm7086]

Great stuff! Tesla’s self driving system, now being based on AI, will be more cost-effective (fewer sensors) & safer. Advancement in AI will allow future competitors to catch up faster but Tesla is capturing hundreds of millions of miles of data to advance their AI. Tesla has probably 12 to 24 month advantage and pulling away because of data. Tesla also has a huge install base - just a software update away - huge advantage. Full disclosure: I’m long TSLA

[@glike2]

Tesla Robotaxis can deliver Amazon and other packages during off peak.

[@goukwapanzy]

You have the names, titles, and companies flipped - left to right. Brad Gerstner is on the left in the black tee shirt and Bill Gurley on the right with the guitar in the painting and leaning against the wall. Lol!

[@DanV18821]

Please make the second video. Your thought are insightful. I think Tesla is less than a year away from solving FSD. The robotaxi will maybe start build by the end of 2024, with start of production in Q2 2025. By then FSD and licensing will be on the horizon. Looking forward to your next video.

[@erictheblue7256]

Excellent dissertation on Tesla Robo-Taxi advantages. Yes, I'd like a follow up vid on a viable Robo-taxi deployment model you offered. Thanks!

[@Anoneom]

Definitely want those further breakdowns of robotaxi!

[@matiaspejko7293]

Thank you for the channel content and all your work. My congratulations. One consideration from my part about the concept of the car cost. Provided Tesla and companies like Redwood material can recycle a very high percentage of the car materials in a closed-loop cycle, after the useful lifetime of a given unit, the depleted cost would only be manufacturing costs: Fixed: infrastructure, machinery and equipment in the form of depreciation, and Variable: parts from vendors (subject to the degree of vertical integration) labor and power sources, (electricity and natural gas). Water is also considered to be almost recyclabe. In terms of parts from vendors, the same idea applies as recycled materials have value for their own manufacturing processes. From automatization and introduction of humanoid robots, labor will be progressively converted to a fixed cost (robot depreciation) and a Variable electricity consumption from robots. To that extent from the perspective of a proprietary fleet own by the manufacturer, Tesla, after an initial placement for a Generation 1 Robotaxi unit, the question could be how many subsequent units could be produced with the same initial resource allocation and how much the added costs will be for the next Generation unit, and therefore, the main drivers will be the projections of Fixed manufacturing costs and Variable Costs from electricity and marginal costs for vendors parts (recycled materiales costs deducted). In particular, for electricity if it is self supplied from solar generation and storage in the same manufacturing locations. So, given an initial cost for Generation 1 Robotaxi, then I consider it could be very valuable to estimate the cost of Generation 2 robotaxis within the outlined frame above. This could impact both in margins and in cash flows from a tax shield perspective, as well as in the comparison to other competitors. I hope this could be useful. Should you need anything, please, let me know. Thanks in advance for your time and attention. All the best to us all. Best regards, ma++

[@stephenfgillis]

Make another! Please dive deeper in the possibility of car ownership disrupting. 100m robotaxis = 100x stock price 🔥

[@drewandmaros2622]

Yes please make another Robotaxi video. Thanks

[@judymaclean2147]

Yes please do your how robotaxis will roll out thank you

[@davehayes8812]

Great work. I'd love to see your robotaxi analysis, because it affects Tesla owners more.

[@MarkS-23]

Please keep the videos coming. You always have outstanding content and delivery. Thank you.

[@ConnectingODots]

🙏

[@Ask-a-Rocket-Scientist]

Since the heart of what a Tesla is is the SW and compute, they could contract manufacture via BYD to create huge numbers quickly. They could do the final assembly in Mexico to avoid tariffs.

[@paulborneo7535]

Cybercabs will replace school buses.

[@AFeigenbaum1]

Yes ... please make the robotaxi video ... this one was great ... I expect the next one will be great also ... tnx muchly

[@jimsmith5028]

Disrupting Uber is one thing but what about disrupting car ownership in general? I'd love to see a video on the cost of using Robotaxis vs car ownership. Loved this video by the way. The best analysis of Robotaxi potential that I've seen.

[@LionheartLivin]

Definitely want another video featuring a game plan of how they penetrate the market!

[@ismailnyeyusof3520]

Excellent episode that really highlights the advantages Tesla can benefit from because their EVs are moving, yet connected, batteries with compute power to spare during off peak hours. Plus, and it’s equally important, Tesla is always working on data driven optimisation to reduce costs at every level, corner and moment!

[@johannesdolch]

YES. More Robotaxi Videos!

[@dbmiller5881]

I see so much discussion about how "Cyber Cab" will render Waymo / Uber / etc obsolete... but what I always took away from Elon's commentary is that isn't the objective. Rather "everybody" will give up car ownership, because it will be so cheap and efficient just to use the Tesla network. Not just in cities.... but everywhere. Nobody will go to the expense of owning their own car anymore..

[@larrydugan1441]

You left out the effect on production of Tesla plants. He can balance production rates and let unit costs overall.

[@kalliste23]

I'll have some of what you guys are smokin'. FSD is always, "next year." Who is responsible for the car if there is no driver? There are a ton of legal changes necessary before this could happen even if there was such a thing as a car able to autonomously drive itself.

[@garethrobinson2275]

It's already happening for other companies, though, such as Waymo. This is not unprecedented, as you seem to suggest. We don't know when they will be ready for sure, but they are making incredible progress with V12 and are already testing two versions ahead, so I think a timeline is clearer for them now.

[@kalliste23]

@@garethrobinson2275 Actually it is unprecedented. Other companies promising the same thing are just more empty promises. A year from now somebody will be making exactly the same video, "coming real soon now."

[@garethrobinson2275]

@kalliste23 In that sense, yes, FSD is unprecedented. Legally, though, services can and have operated in the states.

[@kalliste23]

@@garethrobinson2275 and how's that working out (rhetorical question).

[@garethrobinson2275]

@@kalliste23 They have the wrong approach but the legal precedent is set. Seems like a waste of time talking to you but others will probably read this.

[@goukwapanzy]

Yes. Part II, please!

[@gvee3355]

another advantage is the in cabin camera it can tell if disruption occurs or that no one is in car when returning to charge

[@TenorDad]

In order for Uber to survive the ride hailing game it will have to start squirreling away cash (if that isn't already being done) to become a mega fleet owner of CyberCabs.

[@CombatSport777]

I really doubt Tesla will sell their cybercabs

[@theipc-twizzt2789]

On the average vs peak demand discussion. They could use inactive cars as energy storage providers. Or they use them for inference compute.

[@wvc72]

You did an absolutely outstanding job.I congratulate you thank you

[@bobwallace9753]

At some point all robos will have a limited lifetime use remaining. Use the robos that have, say, another good 50k miles left to cover peak demand periods. With limited use they could serve the company for many years, avoiding having a more valuable, newer vehicle sitting idle.

[@jimjam36695]

Battery recycling lowers cost Autonomous vehicles can be used for many things besides hauling passengers: Courier, package delivery Food delivery, groceries Local parts delivery Lab testing delivery Etc etc.

[@mediacafeonlinellc8728]

Great episode. The big question is when FSD will be ready to go unsupervised and how long it will take to implement the sophisticated systems. A second installment would be much appreciated!!

[@timsiener]

The CEO of uber sold 30 percent of his stock about a week ago. Even he knows that UBER is going bankrupt.

[@grahambrown42]

There are companies in Europe stockpiling used Model 3's and Y's with FSD

[@Steven-996]

who?

[@dawn4077]

Probably the same companies which are a middleman between uber and drivers. They own or lease a cars (usually toyota hybrids) and hire workers to drive for low wages. They can gradually switch to teslas.

[@vvnn1054]

Excellent analysis 👍

[@EvEvangelist]

CyberCab giving back juice to the Grid ?? Depends on the Availability of Flex electricity charging Tarriffs . Which currently mirror down demand periods for CCs - So I charge to full over night at cheapest rate ✅ Then i sell it back at At Peak prices , which mirrors peak demand for CC - ❌, that’s when the CC goes out to work and NEEDS that juice.

[@christopherhale580]

Excellent analysis. Thank you!

[@Ronnieleec]

Excellent! Definitely right over BG2. Please do more. I expect limited geography Tesla robotaxi service with existing inventory by this time next year. By this time 2026 I expect wide use across USA and the Cybercab.

[@bjarnesegaard5701]

Please make an extra video about how Robotaxi shoud be rolled out. THis video was great.

[@BTC_Minarchist]

Excellent analysis

[@mmanjin]

The main modus operandi for Waymo and competing ride hailing rely on geo fencing technology which is very expensive to scale. It would be cost prohibitive and not practical to scale beyond relatively small geo fenced constrained areas in large metropolitan areas. It completely ignores medium to small town, rural areas and everything in between since it would be prohibitively expensive and thus not practical to do so. Not so for Tesla Robotaxi. A Tesla Robotaxi could operate anywhere. That gives Tesla a large advantage that can’t be ignored. A main strategy Walmart undertook it it’s earlier expansion years that contributed significantly to it’s retail dominance was to expand and scale out to small town and more rural areas of America which were underserved and largely unserved by the competition.

[@bstorm66]

General cost of Uber or any other car is $0.70/mile + driver. Tesla can beat that easily.

[@larryread1930]

Please do produce part 2. There seems to be an opportunity for soon to be displaced Uber drivers to build mini fleets of Tesla vehicles and spend their time maintaining a group of vehicles instead of driving 1. Tesla’s added benefits of supporting the grid and networking for compute may make a very compelling small business model for individual entrepreneurs.

[@JoeMcMorrow-k7e]

Hey Connect the Dots - what do you think about the impending disruption to every Broad Band Provider (including eventually mobile data) when Starlink is fully operational?

[@okgoogle4206]

I don't think your production cost of the model 3 is right, 17% margin is on the average selling price of Tesla, they are doing more margin on the high end, and less on the low end. A low end model 3 probably cost around 35-36K

[@commandersprocket]

Model S and model X make up 3- 4% of Tesla sales. Their contribution to margin even if they have 25% margin is going to be very very low, enough so that the fraction over 17 that he cut off will leave the numbers roughly accurate.

[@okgoogle4206]

@@commandersprocket The average selling price of Tesla is 44K. I was not talking about S/X but more about higher trim of 3/Y, bigger wheels, better paints, FSD...

[@lukevo6485]

And also I believe Tesla will introduce the model 2 on 8-8. Lower cost with higher margins. No steering wheel, possibly 2 seater, less amenities.

[@david-iam]

A big advantage to Tesla’s fleet would be for long distance one way travels. Like sometimes you need to travel to LAX from San Diego to catch a flight. The Tesla vehicle doesn’t have to travel back to home base like an Uber driver would have to.

[@cathyk9197]

Major metros have lots of commercial real estate available post-COVID, so Tesla can secure long term leases for low cost city center indoor locations to charge, clean, and tap into Robotaxi compute.

[@harrycornelius373]

How will Tesla handle charging? Currently, it takes a person to manually plug in at a charger. Will they have Tesla bots at remote yards doing the charging and cleaning? If you have huge warehouses or lots outside the city standing idle until peak demands might they flood the streets and jam up traffic- generating citizen outrage? Might they install wireless charging so cybercabs can simply pull up and charge. That still leaves cleaning potentially after just a few rides. What’s your take?

[@garethrobinson2275]

Cleaning will be both regular and on request. The software will give the option to score down the cab on cleanliness or reject it and be sent another on priority. The Robocab then goes to a valet centre.

[@Limitless1717]

Thanks man, tons of great alpha in this video. I really like your content. I will join your Patreon to help support your show.

[@keving704]

Great analysis...it would be really helpful to see your economic model on Robotaxis

[@SurfectedGermany]

Excellent 🙏🏼👏🏽

[@mschmydt]

Excelente analysis! Keep up the great work! Please do the other video you proposed! Uber can not compete and will be forced to disappear in a short period of time! Since the robotaxi business is a business that Tesla can offer as a service you can get a model that charges per mile and you by a certain amount of miles per month! Another possibility is to give a mile free for each two miles used during off peak demand! Since Tesla can use the idle time to generate other revenues it can take into account cost of opportunity balancing the different revenue streams and adjusting prices for ride hailing accordingly! There are many other combinations possible that a new auto bidder style software can maximize the revenue stream! I am exited looking forward for your next video!

[@p.t.9709]

Yes. More robotaxi content please. This is huge part of the future of the company.

[@jonahbert111]

What if a person up-chucks in the car? Will the car be cleaned or inspected after each ride?

[@philipsonefeld9609]

Tesla should not partner. If Tesla can solve FSD, certainly Tesla can optimize the geographical positioning of cars to match demand and people’s schedules. BTW, people’s schedules are mostly the same. For the first couple or few years of being in competition with Uber/Lyft Tesla could offer rides from customers cars for $1/mile massively undercutting Uber/Lyft. If people agree to sharing the ride Tesla could charge $0.50/ mile. With optimizing to peoples schedules Tesla could certainly get close to 100% paid miles. With the paid miles averaging between $1-$2/ mile this is much much larger of an opportunity than everyone else I have listened to. Also, there could be yet another revenue stream. Tesla could use the lockable frunk to offer an Uber Eats/ Grub Hub service which could add more revenue/mile. Obviously over time revenue/mile goes down, but opportunity of total miles could go through the roof.

[@MyPapagio]

Wow, great content. I'll be watching all your videos now. Thank you!

[@CombatSport777]

I believe the cyber cab will use CATLs newest Shenxing battery that is extremely cheap, has an energy density of 205 wh/kg, lasts 1 million miles, performs well in the cold, charges quickly, and can be used 0 to 100% without degrading the battery.

[@lakergreat1]

Amazing video! Yes please more follow-up videos as this was so so interesting!

[@macrumpton]

There are many people who would be willing to change their commuting schedule to match the low off peak rates that would likely be cheaper than owning, fueling, maintaining, and insuring an ICE car and driving yourself. Robotaxis/cybercabs are going to totally destroy the used ICE car market. One thing you didn't mention is that the usual shift for a rideshare driver is 6-10 hours a utilization factor of only 25- 42%, where a robotaxi,would likely be active about 20hrs (allowing 4 hours for charging) a utilization factor of 83%. Considering that the labor cost is 0 it is hard to see how Uber can compete.

[@alanhall6909]

Can't forget that boomers are retiring, creating a large population of people who don't have typical commute schedules. They will put their cars out to get fares during peak demand times because doing so means cost of ownership goes down and/or they can afford a more luxurious car. Some of them may find it is easier to just get rid of their car entirely and use robotaxis because someone has to clean and recharge those cars and the cost of owning a car and having to deal with vomit just won't be worth it for them despite the tax benefits of putting your car out for fares. No way can the cost of ownership be justified compared to just using robotaxis if you aren't also collecting fares. Older people are already starting to ditch their cars for Uber now. As the fare cost drops, this trend will grow. Owning but not putting out for fares will just be a luxury/status thing, tooling around in your own private car, like your own private jet is now. Even then, you would really need to drive a lot to justify it. Some people will own specialty cars, like classics (converted to electric and FSD) or super luxury cars, for pleasure and the ability to charge top dollar fares. In the early days of aviation, people predicted that everyone would own their own private little airplane. Never happened. Except for hobbyists, the cost just couldn't be justified since most of the time the airplane is just sitting there not being used and must be maintained too.

[@lorblacor]

Yes, make a follow up video to this one.

[@georgelewis8831]

Never bet against Elon!