Why The "30 Year Rule" of Classic Car Prices is Broken - FOREVER

[@Silverhks]

The speculators are destroying so many hobby markets currently. It's insane

[@Simtatic]

@BEEF SUPREME The worst thing is that planes and ships have much more emissions than cars, but yk, politics...

[@Seethenhagen]

By worrying about buying a car at a good deal to see appreciation, you are speculating, even if you intend to drive and enjoy the car as an enthusiast.

[@fuzzblightyear145]

it's a real shame these dealers don;t say "You;re not worthy to drive this exquisite piece of engineering unless you drive it 5,000 miles a year"

[@Silverhks]

@@Seethenhagen cars are a hobby for me not about money. The saying has been forever that you will never make back what you spend in tuning/upgrades.

[@Silverhks]

@@fuzzblightyear145 as good as that idea sounds to you it's a nonstarter. They are in it for the money. Allowing them to place restriction/requirements on buying generally leads to bad places.

[@cameronwood1994]

My parents paid £1,200 for my 1980 Land Rover back in 2009, it was my surprise 15th birthday present. We rebuilt it and still to this day it is my only car. Since I bought it prices have ballooned to the point a dealer offered me £30,000 cash to take it off my hands. I turned it down, because some things are worth more than financial gain. In fact, I drove it across Africa last year before Covid-19, because I wanted to use it and have an adventure. You may be thinking that this massive increase in prices is a good thing for owners, but what it has actually done is brought a different non-enthusiast customer base to the market, who will give a company a blank cheque to restore it. What this means is people like myself are now not only priced out of the classic car market, but the price for spare parts, particularly those unavailable new, has risen tenfold thus making them far more expensive to run - mainly because said companies are using that blank cheque to hoard parts whatever the cost.

[@goldencheese7247]

Comment of the year. 👆🏻 Much love from Germany. 😘

[@fredbobberts5753]

Spot on on spares. But that will change. What prevents cars from being great investments in the long run except for the very best is the cost to repair maintain and store.

[@GothamClive]

@@fredbobberts5753 As an investment it probably doesn't make sense. It might make more sense to just put it in a barn and restore it when you want to sell it. This is obviously bad for enthusiasts for reasons the OP has described.

[@cormacsheedy1141]

The most environmental car you could have one for life

[@wiktordebski]

awsome, this way to go

[@rogerbarrett9920]

You're probably right and the most sensible way forward is to not pay too much for your "classic" car and more importantly use and enjoy it. Actually owning, caring for and using an older car has been rather lost in the " what's it worth now " world we currently live in.

[@freddieparrydrums]

Yeah sad really. My dad bought a Rover P5B in 2013 and drives it but won’t sell it for money

[@tim1polman]

Hurray. Saab 9-5, bought for 500 euros. Saab 900ng convertible bought for 600 euros. Saab 900i (2.1i) bought for 1000 euros Saab 9000 2.3 turbo bought for 300 euros And my VW Corrado VR6, bought for 1500 euros. Think i've got the buying cheap down well. 😅😜 The only non runner atm is the 9000, wich i'm fixing up in all the spare time due to that superflu.

[@freddieparrydrums]

@@tim1polman Wow. That’s lucky

[@CheeeseToastie]

My son, not old enough to drive yet, his dream car is a Tesla. ICE cars should be cheap to convert to electric in 15 years. Just get a great looking one and you'll be OK.

[@Kacpa2]

Legislation and blind chase after numbers combined with other superficial aspects killed off excitement in cars too. Already vast majority of cars from 2010 up are increasingly more sanitized and artificial and it just gets worse and worse as time goes on...

[@EA40]

I'm gonna have to disagree a bit on the take of young people not liking cars. The real issue is that most of us are priced out of the hobby. While there are more economic opportunities years ago, the reality is that everything now is more expensive than it was years ago too. Many of us in our 20s may remember a time when our parents in the USA bought houses for a quarter of what they sell for now. New cars were cheaper, student debt was lower, and salaries were decent. Today, housing prices are through the roof with supply much lower than before, student debt is higher, cars are more expensive, and salaries haven't risen proportionally to the cost of living. And I'm sorry, but many of us don't want to over-finance ourselves into cars the way other poor shoppers do by focusing on only the monthly payment amount. Many young people are simply in survival mode, and as a result, most luxuries have to give way. Sadly, that includes cars. Is the environment a factor? I mean somewhat, except it's more complex than that. In some circles, cars are public enemy number one. But in other circles, airplane flights are public enemy number one. After all, airplanes use a lot pretty dirty fuel, and they contribute a ton to pollution (which is why various short-haul flights are getting removed).

[@weirdwalrus5757]

Fuck the environment I want to redline a Ferrari on Mars

[@brusselssprouts560]

I agree with you. If you are 50/60 something and mortgage free and bored you can buy these sorts of "classics". It is a bit like the born again bikers of a few years ago who always wanted an insanely powerful 2 wheeler and could now afford it.

[@brusselssprouts560]

@JoleFin how many decades ago, and how much bigger was the population?

[@8G00SE8]

I disagree with this idea that young people are priced out. They are priced out of owning Ferraris just like everyone else. You can go out and buy a 3L Lexus or Subaru for less than 3K and have an insane amount of car for your money as long as you are over 25 and held a license for at least a few years it won't be as expensive as driving a gash 1L Dacia on finance.

[@shoominati23]

You have to remember the events of the last 2 years would unfairly influence the data pool of new license uptakes. And I dont think they will ever stop enthusiasts from driving collector cars, theres simply too many wealthy and powerful people who are in the hobby who have enough sway to make the powers that be think twice. I mean what do you see in every 2nd Rap video anyway? blinged up homies riding in and bouncing on the bonnets of Bugattis, Mercedes G class and Ferraris, it seems they didnt get the memo..

[@AdamBuckley1964]

Young people often live in a place with no garage, or even off-street parking. It makes an enormous difference when trying to own/run a 'classic' of any vintage. Good video, loads of interesting points made.

[@rogerhudson2814]

Try keeping a £100k Porsche 911S on the street in Hackney.

[@joejoejoejoejoejoe4391]

Do young people know what a spark plug is ? They've got no chance of keeping a classic on the road.

[@luzalez9095]

This is true, and If it's s pita, isn't cheap on gas, they aren't interested. It's not the environment they're worried about, they have no funds.

[@pizzamad3334]

Search Tony heller on KZbin

[@johnmuir8305]

@@joejoejoejoejoejoe4391 Of course there are young people who know what a spark plug is, you dolt.

[@lptomtom]

I completely agree with nowadays' "near-constant stream of hypercars" you mention at 10:30. I'm not just excited anymore to discover yet another million-pound carbon fiber technological marvel, they all look the same, and feel the same, and their prices are obscene for the average person. Sure, Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes are a very lucrative market to pander to, but I'm not sure the average 12-yo boy hangs posters of McLaren's hypercar of the week on his bedroom walls...

[@GoldenCroc]

To be fair, if we are talking general capital in circulation, the 1980s Countach poster car was almost as high priced. So I dont think thats the problem really. Sad truth its probably more down to other factors.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Yep.... I have two Ferraris and I'm sure many people would consider me "A rich man" (I'm not, I can assure you) but even for me something like a Pagani is just impossibly far away

[@MrLph427]

The “problem” of Unobtanium has always been in cars, that’s what a supercar is. Car magazines drove this as it increased their market and it became a symbiotic relationship with manufacturers. Todays real issue is the falling value of currency and where to put your savings. “Compulsory Autonomous”is what will kill our classics on the open road not the combustion engine.

[@kasimirdenhertog3516]

Completely agree, I can’t be bothered in the slightest anymore about those supposedly special multi-million dollar cars - while I should be, being a car enthusiast. Watch the video where some German guy shows maestro Gandini the result of the cynical cash grab called the new Countach. His indifferent response is telling, and he since issued a statement saying he was pretty much tricked into doing this video and he wants nothing to do with it.

[@Vanilla.coke1234]

@@GoldenCroc The issue isn't just the unobtanium of these cars. It's how many of them there are and how many keep popping up. Sure, a Countach would've been completely unobtainable to most, but it was one of a handful, new and used, that was such. That made it a holy grail vehicle and an event every time you even saw a picture of it in a magazine.

[@jameslancaster1249]

I’m 21 and a proud owner of a mk1 mx5. Even though these are still very cheap they’ve seen a steep price increase over the last few years so I’m glad I bought mine when I did. I’ll never ever sell it

[@nissanoo0393]

you're lucky to have it mate, probably be worth a lot in 5-6 years

[@sma7530]

@ James - I'm after a mk1 mx5, so you made a good choice. Just bought a Daimler v12 6.0L yesterday as a project and have a classic Mini I bought in 2009 (94 1275 spi model) being put together. I have limited money for food and heating, but I grabbed them before they became completely ridiculous in price.

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

@@nissanoo0393 commenting today in 2023, a mx5 probably *won't* be worth a lot at all. As the video stated, you will be hard pressed finding petrol and it's price will be extortionate, the road tax will be extortionate and the government will have socially engineered most people into 'electric is what you want'. More and more of these cars are going to plummet in price near 2030 wait to you see. 2030 and beyond is for the super rich and only very *very* special pristine classic cars will ever be seen on the road. Why would a millionaire buy an mx5? Something they never appreciated ever, when they can buy a pristine supercar or something that always had pedigree and hype. An mx5 isn't any of those categories and nobody with the means will even consider it. The government want it off the road. Try fighting the government.

[@nissanoo0393]

@@KZbinSupportTeams electrics cars will be dead even before the ICE ban, they gonna have to either go petrol or hydrogen emissions are a pure money maker, apart from us, (the eu) no one else does this shit (usa/africa/asia?) so yeah goverments will have to come up with something new ;p

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

@@nissanoo0393 I'm only talking about the UK though. There is a possibility that there will be mass export of ICE vehicles to other countries that dgaf about emissions bullshit

[@borderlands6606]

Classic film cameras may be a useful comparison. With the advent of digital photography, everyone thought film was dead. Between 2003 and 2011 Joe public sold off their old cameras for small change, relative to their previous value. Leicas, Hasselblads, professional Nikons and other cameras that cost serious money a few years before, were worth a fraction of their price. Then people realised that film could still be bought, and specialist manufacturers kept supply healthy. Camera prices bottomed out and began to climb, to the point where a model that could be bought for a few hundred, is now worth several thousand pounds. Something similar may happen to cars as cleaner fuels and alternative energy sources are developed. I wouldn't right off classic motor cars yet.

[@nelsonclub7722]

True. I'm Pro and my complete RZ system was sold for about 5p about twenty years ago - now its worth 5K - and even though I use a 50K Digi Hass system (H6D100) - its just not the same. Similar thing with vintage Hi-Fi

[@menoy36]

The thing is those companies already had the product (film) - at not much additional cost. To keep the ICE going you will need to pump millions or billions into R&D to come up with any kind of eco friendly combustable fuel - with a high chance you may fail anyway. And that's with severe marketing headwinds owing to the pro EV / anti petrol lobbying happening last couple years. I can see it being a very tough call for big business take that risk.

[@lastminutesolutions]

I used to shoot film. But with film and developing becoming so inaccessible, my cameras just sit in storage. For cars, inaccessibility of gas stations will rapidly take combustion cars off the road.

[@nelsonclub7722]

@@lastminutesolutions 100% yes they will. However whilst I do not know where you live, I am in UK Stroud - I have 3 places near to me which can do processing and printing - all pro labs and not much more expensive than they used to be. Darkroom in Cheltenham, Photographique in Bristol and Concorde in Cirencester.

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

The value of a car and a camera can't be compared. The government aren't banning the manufacture of film. But they are banning the production of I.C.E's in 2023. Fossil fuels and road tax will be extortionate. Only the super rich will have an ultra special supercar on the road. All these hoarders of mediocre classic cars will get a big shock when nobody wants them as millions of electric vehicles take over the road.

[@mattylf1]

I'm encouraged by events like Goodwood Festival of Speed, where you see so many kids getting and building on their interest in cars. The same with car shows, where you see all the spotters around. There just wasn't that things around when I was that age. We all have to have our fingers crossed that synthetic fuels beomes a real alternative to keeping all these cars running in the future.

[@benbuchanan672]

Agree, but the price of entry to the Festival of Speed is also pretty high!

[@gameonyolo1]

Fingers crossed the government stops messing with the free market🤞

[@trevorharman9880]

Synthetic fuel is the real future hopefully the government will realise this soon.

[@harryburrows10]

@@benbuchanan672 Keeps all the chavs out though

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

They don't care about keeping ICE cars on the road lol. But hold on the fantasy.

[@liammills9428]

9:20 As one of the very few members of my generation with a passion for the automotive world, I can confirm that we are... well, stuffed. It is considered almost weird these days to have an interest in such things, and is something which is often criticised. I sit here now knowing that I won't even be halfway through my twenties by the time the ICE cannot be produced from new, and not even halfway through my forties by the time I can't own one whatsoever, and that's just the current state of play: we've already seen the dates change countless times, typically being brought further and further forwards. It is quite a bleak outlook that I may never be able to own and drive something interesting, for the sake of helping a climate that (as long as there aren't stricter regulations on China, cargo ships, etc) will never heal anyway due to any actions of the general public.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Yep, it's the worst possible form of virtue signalling

[@GoldenCroc]

Hear hear.

[@BRMRailway]

Well, never say never - there are now manufacturers looking at synthetic fuels (Porsche for one) and others looking at ICE using Hydrogen. Its early days for all this, but maybe our 'interesting' motoring days are not yet over. I'm not sure about the idea of not being allowed to use old ICE vehicles either. Once we are at a point where the majority of everyday vehicles are 'clean' I do wonder if there will be a relaxation of being allowed to use 'classic' vehicles, maybe with restricted mileage. For instance, we can still drive a 1927 Austin 7, 900cc, 7hp, does less mpg than a large saloon car, no exhaust filters, no modern safety equipment. You wouldn't really want to use it as a daily driver anyway, so they tend only to do a few hundred miles a year, but it keeps our motoring heritage alive and people enjoy seeing these old things. I think we are going to be allowed to use old vehicles, but maybe limited miles so they're not daily drivers. There's lots we could say about doing our bit and where that fits with china and India (and do remember that we have basically outsourced lots of our carbon footprint to china to build the things we buy!). But that's perhaps a topic for another time.

[@rogerbarrett9920]

The ironic fact about banning ICE cars and going fully electric is that it takes 7 years for an electric car to become truly green and only from then has cancelled out the environmental footprint it took to build it - but by then it’s battery pack is getting to the stage where it needs replacing- then the whole cycle starts again- Surely we should also be looking at other ways of fuelling power units in cars as electric vehicle manufacturing is pretty polluting.

[@liammills9428]

@@rogerbarrett9920 Plus, due to the average length of the popular PCP arrangements being 3-5 years, its unlikely that the car only has one owner for that 7 year battery lifespan anyway

[@grayfool]

Well put James. If I could go back and somehow keep all the cars I have owned over the past four decades, I would now be a millionaire. None of them were that special at the time but look at the values of classic Minis now. I've opened five. There were also many other things that have gone from cheap junk to collectors items. Of course, the one that got away was the BIG ONE! I was seriously offered a DB5 in the early eighties for, are you sitting down? £2,500.00. Yep you read that right. It was OK too. Ran, drove, clean body, lovely interior. The gearbox and rear axle needed some work. I didn't have the money at the time. Two or three years later a complete basket case would cost you at least £50,000. My arse still hurts from all the self inflicted kicking.

[@allannicolson2607]

I bought a DB4 in 1973 for £250, when I was 19, knowing it was only going to go up. Kept it at my parents house for 5 years without doing anything with it ( I also had a Daimler420 and a hill climb 1340 Cooper 'S' , as well as a Suzuki GT750, but knew it was a great investment, and didn't need it for transport - I was working in the oil industry, so, with living at home, had a few quid spare most weeks, although my mate came in as a half share as well). 5 years of nagging later, I reluctantly sold it for £750 (it needed a bent valve or two fixed), my mate carpeting his new house with his half. I told my mother at the time that it would be worth more than their house in time - needless to say she didn't believe me. Their house was on the market recently for £370,000..........

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

Yeah that was then though. The market is completely different now and the whole topic of the video

[@GoldenCroc]

Regarding the start of the video: Finally a guy who understands how prices and the market works, and got the platform to spread that knowledge. Well done. Edit: Watched the whole video now. One of your best, cant fault anything in it really. This is the kind of "tough love" info that is sometimes needed.

[@JD2KL]

The reason I love this channel so much, the real world education, BUT jay seems the kind of guy I'd happily go for a pint with and chat about the love for cars 🙌

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Anytime David. Mine's a Diet Coke.

[@tomy8450]

This is your best video yet, Jay. And that’s a comment from a 30-year Porsche 944 owner (you have been doing videos on these special and overlooked cars lately…thanks! I am one of the few completely restoring a 216k mile 2,7 liter NA, non-turbo example). I will be sharing this with others, especially in USA, who have no idea that the world of car is about to rapidly change. I was upset at first that my 20 year old put rally mud flaps and a straight pipe with a crackle-tune on my erstwhile daily driver Mk6 GTI which I sold to him, but seen as basically a ‘celebration’ of the ICE as the world changes, my view is now different. Drive them, share them is right!

[@davidsherley2652]

Well thought out expose. Lots of points to consider. One point I’d like to pick up on. I own a well sorted 911-964. When I’m at social events, almost any time I see a child eyeing my car, I offer for them to sit in the driver’s seat. As much as encouraging the dream in younger folks, these cars are too wonderful not to be shared.

[@vGnome]

Someone did the same for me back in the day with a Viper R/T. Good way to get the dream instilled in the younger generation.

[@LifeOfACarNerd]

Great way of sharing the experience and making kids or even teenagers want to be part of our passion. I remember when I was a kid in a parking lot drooling over a brand new f430, the owner walked up to the car and he almost killed me with his stare, almost as if I was deemed unworthy of standing near his car, which kinda sucks as it certainly made an impression on me at that young age. I try today to be the opposite - if I see someone staring at my car (a Lotus, not super exotic) I'll smile/wave and try to encourage them as much as possible to take a look at it, as with everything in life, the best things in life are shared.

[@davidsherley2652]

@@LifeOfACarNerd Lotuses have such eye appeal, so timelessly sleek - they are wonderful cars to introduce young people to.

[@LifeOfACarNerd]

@@davidsherley2652 Definitely, kids (and grownups) love them because of the mini super car looks - beautiful cars that everyone should try! Love sharing it with people.

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

A kid will sit in anything unusual. Unlikely that they will want it or be able to afford it in their adult life. Hopium

[@venomtailOG]

I'd say young people still idealise cars. Still want them. Still are huge fans. I'm 21 and don't know a single one of my friends out of like 30 who do not not talk about their favorite cars, models and what they want in the future. Problem is they're just unrealistally expensive. Yes, the general price of daily commuter consumer cars is dropping but so are wages compared to how quickly inflation's going up along with other living expenses. I alone will likely never afford a car that I dream about simply because 75% of my paycheque goes towards rent. Millenials and Gen Z will be the first generation who will likely be forced to rent for the rest of their lives. Where else are we to find the money for a car if we can't even afford a mortgage on a house. If I have to choose £40'000 for a car or £40'000 for 10% downpayment for a house, I'll choose the house. If anything I'll likely only be able to afford a motorbike in the future. If I have to choose £70'000 for a base model Volvo or £10'000 for a top of the range Yamaha bike, I'll choose the bike without a second thought. Unless car manufacturers can make something like the MX5 or Z400 available for £15'000, there is no future for cars I'm afraid. Not with the current economy at least.

[@PrivacyEnt]

Im 27 and i have just 2 out of tens of 20s of friends which are interested in cars and has a real answer to a favourite car rather then just saying "ferari"

[@jamiekirkpatrick96]

I'd say this is pretty much accurate, the rise in inflation and lack of wage match is just starting to alienate younger people from what is essentially just a really expensive hobby, I'm turning 25 in a few days and have had a fair few enthusiast cars, mx5, fiesta ST, 3.0 Z4 and I've had to give them up for a van as I'm now self employed. I've more or less accepted that I'll probably never be able to afford cars like those again at least for a long time, by which point there will be a severe lack of combustion enthusiast cars left that won't have a hefty premium on top. On top of that rising fuel costs are starting to get a bit out of hand and it's seeming more likely I'll invest a grand or two on a simulator setup and stick some nice wheels on the van and learn to love with it because like you said there's not a lot of jobs out there for younger People that pay enough to have a nice car and a house.

[@thecianinator]

I'm jealous of your friends lol

[@frankyk2002]

@@jamiekirkpatrick96 Sounds like you have it together. I think you will be successful.

[@VeyronBD]

23 myself and I'm huge into cars (and know alot of people who are). The problem is all the cars I'm into are very expensive indeed, basically anything over 20-25 years old is hugely expensive now with really only the lowliest spec of everyday car being affordable. Its at the point where the £5k cars in 2014 are now £15k+. Japanese cars especially, with the only thing remaining being automatic base model saloons for £7k...

[@donaljamescaddye3805]

I have an old Porsche 944 that I bought 21 years ago and I really enjoy tinkering and driving . Our kids at 6 and 9 absolutely love it. We all make it a family affair when we go on classic spins and shows. I now know that my car is in safe hands with them whatever time I pass on. I get asked on a regular basis by speculators to name my price - the reply is always "priceless" Our kids have gained an appreciation and love for classics and from these acorns mighty oaks will grow and the scene is safe ! Investor got burned years ago and time they were spit roasted again ! Great channel - really enjoy your videos!!

[@ozeskiman]

Well said Jay. This is the same conversation I have had with my other car mates over the past 3 years or so. In fact I was speaking to a principal of the biggest classic car showroom in Australia the other day and he told me that modern cars are selling, but the older classics are a lot slower. As you correctly pointed out, the people who like them are all getting older, and consequently less interested for all the reasons you indicated. Like you, my 575 is going through the premium program currently. I love the car and intend to keep it until they take my licence away, so hopefully at least another 15+ years. I'll drive it as often as the weather permits, and in the end it won't matter what it's worth as I will have great memories from driving a special car. As I tell my friends, there's no ski racks in heaven, so enjoy it while we can. As always your content is excellent.

[@michaelhome9882]

Excellent well reasoned and probably correct analysis of classic car pricing .I am 74 and have owned in my 55 years of driving many cars now considered classics, spitfire, MGB, TVR, Boxster. This was because my daily was a company car. I have never bought a car as an investment, but something to enjoy or use as family transport. I have found my family home to be a much better investment, it has appreciated tax free and useful.

[@3ducs]

Usually when a home appreciates it is taxed on the new valuation, at least that has been the case everywhere I've lived.

[@dazeaston]

@@3ducs in the UK the home you live in is capital gains tax free

[@jeffarcher400]

The house is of course the better safer investment. Which would you rather have a nice car and pay rent or a home and a beater. A roof overhead on a rainy night and ride the bus or living out of a nice car. Plus houses are less likely to be stolen or jacked by force and have a bigger pool of prospective buyers. If an engine blows up on a rare car it can instantly become almost worthless and even something little like a broken turn signal or headlights can render them unsafe to drive. Houses don't get in traffic accidents they just sit there making money. So don't buy the dream car while you pay rent but is it worth it if you already have a house...no. Another property will hopefully earn income while appreciating and the car won't unless you wear it out ubering. That said there's no reason not to enjoy an affordable classic that just might outperform a supercar in performance and appreciation. Here's my fun short list. Most anything Japanese from Initial D or fast and furious. 240sx,Rx-7, Eclipse gst,Evo, Bug eye Wrx and even a well done Civic. 60's American muscle cars, Mustang Camaro,GTO, Corvette. Most any old British car with racing history. Triumph,MG, Jaguar and of course Lotus. All the cool shapes found from Alfa to 240z. For under $20k most anybody could dabble in the collector car market without taking out a second mortgage. Some people collect coins,stamps or paintings. Anyone who doesn't see a fine motorcar as art is blind to the finer things in life. It's an investment you can drive to the bank.

[@dominicwood3750]

74 yes you are part of the golden generation in the UK where your home has appreciated as much you have earned but tax free especially in the the South. However politically this wealth remains untaxable unlike many places around the world

[@vwgolf9826]

@@jeffarcher400 A lot of waffle, but there is some sense in it.

[@martinlaver007]

Genuinely never felt so depressed watching one of your (most excellent) videos.

[@Rynardts]

Well as you mentioned, Porsche Synthetic Fuel is the best way forward to keep them alive imo. It's a carbon neutral fuel that does not require any modifications to the petrol ICE. Its certainly a lot more environmentally friendly than digging up lithium all over the place. Why petrol companies like Shell haven't caught on to try and make it mainstream is beyond me.

[@markm0000]

Because they’re heavily invested in EV companies and want to appear as though they are green conscious. That way they aren’t left with their pants down and banned off the face of the planet when most cars are EVs. The hive mind doesn’t understand technology they just want it to change and get rid of gas. I think Synthetic fuel is a good bet for the near future because gas prices are about to go ballistic and there aren’t nearly enough EVs to replace everyone’s car.

[@simonmurfin1910]

I suggest you watch Rory’s video on the Autotrader channel. I don’t think anyone will be getting synthetic fuel

[@EVinstructor]

I read an article on a report today about synthetic fuels. They have been found to have higher levels of pollutants than petrol. So while being theoretically carbon neutral, they take enormous amounts of electricity to make which has to be renewable for them to be carbon neutral and burning things still pollutes. As someone already posted, check out Rory’s video on Autotrader channel.

[@pizzamad3334]

Search Tony heller on KZbin

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

Good luck with that being at the pumps when pumps are gone.

[@The_BenboBaggins]

I'm in the typical position as described in the video, turned 40, fairly comfortable, missing my classic Mini sold a few years ago. Had an appreciation for the supercharged R5S Mini, and found that prices have reached that natural base. Picked up an 04 plated example with 103k on the clock for just under £1400. I do so with the thought in the back of my mind that I'm enjoying the twilight years of motoring as we know it. Probably for the best really, but definitely with sadness as real car and driving enthusiasts becoming as rare as the cars we love.

[@JeremySee]

Unique insight into UK classic sports car pricing. Where I live, an F8 is £800,000 and a 10 year old 458 is at least £350,000. 🥺

[@MohammedAhmed-ow8ie]

WHAT ! ?

[@JayEmmOnCars]

It's not Australia is it? Or Scandinavia

[@JeremySee]

@@JayEmmOnCars Australia is wayyyyy cheaper. Tiny island south of the Equator - venue to the ONLY night F1 race in the world - Singapore.

[@LilleyAdam]

@@JeremySee hmm. Singapore's regulations and car taxes are crazy right?

[@Ferraridude13]

@@JeremySee you haven't been watching F1 this weekend have you?

[@AtypicalDriver]

Well said James! Cars are meant to be used and enjoyed. As I say on my channel -- miles = smiles; dirty car = happy driver. This is the way. A garage full of parked exotics isn't a measure of a true enthusiast.

[@stephenwoodhouse7178]

Brilliant video I have owned my 997 for 10 years now. I am holding onto it still puts a smile on my face. Hopefully sense will prevail wrt government policies.

[@nicholasfound]

Interesting topic and love the sentiment about inspiring others by using classic and interesting cars. Although in the UK there is going to be a ban on the sale of new petrol cars in 2030, with an ultimate net zero target across the economy by 2050, I do not believe there is a ban to stop the use of petrol cars by 2050 as you mentioned. The government says: "We are not banning the use of petrol and diesel cars and vans. These decisions only apply to new cars and vans. They do not apply to existing petrol, diesel and hybrid cars and vans which can continue to be driven and sold in the second hand market." This is critical for the long term value of petrol cars, as it means they can still be used for 'recreational' purposes - experiences, events, driving to cars and coffee meet-ups, track days etc - even if daily commuting activities become compromised (through fewer forecourts, taxes etc.).

[@adogmcdizzle]

I really hope you are right otherwise my retirement plans are scuppered.

[@iamneveronline02]

As are mine @@adogmcdizzle and my man math

[@mattmanslim]

This

[@enigmatwist6548]

There will be little need for a ban, most people who drive cars do so to get from A to B and will in time naturally switch to electric vehicles as prices come down and the infrastructure improves. Range anxiety will eventually become a thing of the past, this, along with cheaper prices will see most people switch naturally without overbearing pressure from Gov. Younger generations will grow up with faster, quieter and far more advanced electric cars that will consign combustion engined vehicles to being little more than an uncouth less desirable novelty. The widespread availability of petrol may become an issue though.

[@Beer_Dad1975]

The 2030 ban on sale of ICE will NOT happen. The UK & Europe (and indeed the whole world) simply is not ready, and will not be ready for millions of new EV's on the road every year. 8 years is not enough time for the infrastructure changes required. There is not enough electricity generation, and not enough grid capacity to deal with the load, and it will take at least a couple of decades of intensive infrastructure upgrading to get to this point - AND they haven't even started working on it yet. In a couple of years this will become apparent even to the idiot politicians, and they will push the 2030 date back, probably by a few years to make themselves look less foolish - then when another few years have gone by and it's still untenable, they'll push it back a few more years, and so on.

[@davewheeler7679]

Interesting thoughts. I think we are 20 to 30 years away from automotive armageddon. Petrol and diesel will be available way after 2030. The ban on new ice vehicles only applies to cars, not vans, lorries, plant, boats, etc. I enjoyed the film James.

[@bigbw0ii]

If this is the case a good workaround could be to get a HSV maloo if it counts as a utility vehicle.

[@peterbabickoncan6192]

In our company MAHLE (on the sunny side of the Alps "Slovenija") we are cooperating with Porsche on synthetic fuel for the last 3 years. Synthetic Fuels Complement E-Mobility - MAHLE & Porsche kzbin.info/www/bejne/qmKsqaqXqNFgebs

[@theelectricchef69]

Many great points made. As a proud owner of a Porsche 997.2 C2S, I bought it to drive it and don’t plan to sell. Keep up the great work!

[@Anirossa]

I'm 23 and will drive and preserve my E34s as much as I can, for as long as I can. Like driving it around and letting other young people and children see and hear them. As well as old people who look at them, and remember memories they have of the same sort of cars, from the same age. Had some very nice conversations with older men who foundly remember their E34 and E28s they used to own back around when they were newer cars.

[@PiersBailey]

I think in the near future there will hopefully be the realisation that RECYCLING cars not buying new ones is a viable way of helping to save the planet. The mad rush to design and build millions of hybrid/electric vehicles for people to only end up owning for 3-5 years then trading in for a new one must be the same if not a worse climate impact than running an old escort for that same period. Not to mention the fact you'll have to look at replacing your lithium ion batteries after give or take 10 years, a notoriously expensive issue both for the raw materials required and for your wallet...

[@Christian---]

Old cars are a staple of free transportation. Individualism. Things not part of the future written for you.

[@boundish1]

The idea of recycling something like let's say jay's 550 here is just painful to think of.

[@tim1polman]

All my Saabs have a sticker on it: "Think Green, repair don't replace" Its something I firmly believe in.

[@ruinunes8251]

@@boundish1 You are very right.

[@ruinunes8251]

I read somewhere something within these lines: "The best car to help the planet and environment is the car that you already own".

[@tim1polman]

I just bought a Saab 9000 CS 2.3 turbo (manual with Sunroof!) Tore appart the whole engine (bought is with a blown head gasket for 300 euros) did a partial rebuild, and the engine is running now. Just a few more small things to do, and she's back on the road. Next year when the weather is good again, i'll get rid of all the rust and do some paining etc to make it look nice again too. I'm 34 now, and the youngest car I've ever owned is a 2004 Saab 9-5 estate. The oldest one is a 1990 VW Corrado (but thats bastically a 93 vr6..) Or a 1991 Saab 900 2.1i. Both have had quite a lot of work done, wich I did all myself. But I really enjoy keeping these older cars on the road. When driving them nowdays, they do feel pretty special too now. 😀

[@peterwhitehead2453]

Jay, you should never apologise for ‘waffling on’ - that’s what we’re here for...!

[@xtlmad]

Excellent analysis James! I fully agree. Its a combination of 1) investors getting into cars but not being petrolheads 2) young generation not really interested in cars 3) the relentless fight against the evil petrol cars versus the incredibly amazing electric cars that will save us all

[@markwoodger2]

This was a very informative and sensible look at the situation the classic car community finds itself. Well put and level headed. Thank you.

[@robtt997]

Well said . I sold my much enjoyed and used classic mid summer for twice what it was valued for less than two years ago. I then bought a cheap common or garden sports car ,for a few thousand quid ,and enjoy it and don’t worry if it goes up or down in value .

[@MichaelSmith-gx5su]

James, yours is easily the most substantial voice discussing these issues on KZbin. Thank you for this, and please continue the conversation over the coming years.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Thanks Michael

[@Ripst4rt]

I think one thing you might be overlooking James is that the market has become more globalized. Its not just Americans importing cars. Its everyone. What we might see is values holding or even continuing to rise because everyone is getting more comfortable with the idea of using technology to assist in remotely buying a car, either from a different city/state/country. So if other countries aren't going to mandate electric only cars we might see a lot more cars being exported out of the UK for a good price

[@robfrost1]

Damn right. As China and India become more wealthy, expect to see them enjoying historic motorsport at weekends.

[@brettself]

Jay, on the ball, as usual. Thanks for posting what so many of us have begun to notice as well. It’s tragic, but we should enjoy the rest of the time we have left with combusters, then tell the stories to our grandkids.

[@GTSCarLife]

James, I frequently enjoy your perspective and often agree with you. Sometimes of course, I see things from a different angle. A few years back, knowing that electric cars are likely going to be mandated into replacing ICE cars, I too felt that the desirability and therefore value of internal combustion engine cars would dropped precipitously. Recently however, I have a more optimistic view. While there will clearly be limits on where and maybe even when owners are allowed to drive their ICE cars, I think that cars which are truly desirable today will likely remain so into the future. There will be fewer of them as a result of accidents and neglect, but today’s cars and those from the recent past will obviously never be able to be built again and human population is increasing daily. As long as there is a limited and declining supply with a growing population and demand, there will continue to be people who will pay what it takes to get what they want. As far as for driving your dream car, I could not agree more. I daily drive my 2011 Porsche 997GTS. So many people comment that I am crazy for running down the value of a what is a relatively limited volume car and one that is increasing in value weekly, but I would not have it any other way. I am living my dream every day. Similarly, my 17-year-old son is driving his like new 1985 1/2 Porsche 944 every day as well. We will continue to drive these cars until such time as I kick the bucket or we are legally no longer able to do so. I hold out hope that things like Porsches synthetic fuel will come along and allow us to drive indefinitely. Always enjoy your videos, and keep up the good work, Thomas

[@jimmy92goodwin]

Love this video Jayemm, I make the Petrol Poodle channel (we met and chatted at the Morgan factory tour) , so anyway I really appreciate how much thought and presenting talent went into this video. Loved the video but of course sad that what you're saying feels very, very accurate

[@TheBonsaiZone]

I think the Civic type R will always be desirable, maybe more than the exotics. It has unique looks, good performance and Honda reliability, plus fairly good gas mileage. It can be used as an everyday car too.

[@strongereveryday2302]

Its hideous. It has got to be one of the ugliest cars ever produced. Someone should have told the designer to put the pen down and back away from the desk.

[@DjNikGnashers]

The modern Civic Type R is only an attractive car to a tiny minority of Honda fanboys. To petrolheads, they are only an attractive idea as a trackday car, in which case they will get thrashed and end up worth nothing. It's just another FWD hatchback, along with dozens of others, it's not luxurious, it's not particularly fast, and it's certainly not a good looking car, and as such it doesn't appeal to a wide range of buyers.

[@helmetculture]

You sound like you daily one 🤣 💀 😂 🤔

[@DjNikGnashers]

@@helmetculture Me ? My avatar tells you exactly what my daily is.

[@unclejoe6811]

LoL Honda 🤣

[@kevinlong6482]

One of your best videos ever mate and you have inspired me to get my dream car next year , I was wavering but now realise it’s the thing to do! Merry Christmas 👍

[@DavidColex]

Wonderful insight. You haven't mentioned the availability and the low cost of ride sharing services like Uber and Lyft, a great motivator of the younger generations to avoid having a drivers licence or to own a vehicle. I assume ride sharing as a phenomenon will only continue to decrease its cost and increase its availability as more cars become fully electric and therefore cheaper to run, or even fully self driving.

[@paulsimonsson]

Spot on, on every point, and good points brought up! In addition, as housing and other essentials skyrocketed in price, most people will struggle just to finance these elementary needs. Especially when money starts to cost money again.

[@mohammadcheema7375]

Great piece thank you. Although I have to say that, in my opinion, all that will happen in the UK in 2050 is that petrol and diesel classic car owners will need to pay for “carbon offsets”. The price of which will depend upon how much they use their old cars. It will be probably take the form of “pay as you go” road tax.

[@Shane-zx4ps]

Absolutely brilliant, well done fella, so insightful from start to finish. 🙏

[@richardcarter1000]

Interesting thoughts. I agree with much of it. I think synthetic fuels will help us keep the classics going. They will out live todays hybrids and EVs, which will be scrapped after 10 years due to battery degradation and cost inflation. It's a money spinner for manufacturers. Funny thing is, the best thing anyone can do for the environment is keep your old car running.

[@trippy_boxer_dog2170]

couldnt agree more....the thing is that even the cost of the production of the EVs, is that it takes so much material and energy to produce them in the first place you literally are better off just doing what you said, keep your old car running. and then the recycling process takes as much energy to recycle the batteries ect.

[@richardcarter1000]

@@trippy_boxer_dog2170 exactly. You can see why manufacturers would want us all to go down the EV route. They'll be like smart phones on wheels. Most will lease and once on the used market, they will quickly become obsolete, before you even start on battery degradation. Good game.

[@PetrolheadTours]

I think this is the first of your videos I’ve actually watched all the way to the end. Sadly I think you’re absolute bang on too. Here’s hoping for some light at the end of the (windows down, drop a gear) tunnel…

[@bendoyle5023]

Why is everything in this world so complicated and stressful nowadays 🙃

[@bentdog8917]

I love the type of videos. This and your “Get out and drive” video is my top vids you’ve produced.

[@EVinstructor]

An interesting view of the classic car market future. There’s also another market combustion cars rely on, the supply and sale of petrol. This November we saw a doubling of new EV sales over last year to 18% of new car registrations. EV sales are on an exponential curve upwards so what does this mean for fuel sales? There will, inevitably, be a tipping point where the demand for petrol drops and fuel stations start to close. This will further encourage car buyers to buy electric rather than a car they don’t think they’ll be able to fill up in a couple of years. This, along with the exponential growth of EV sales, will cause a downward spiral in petrol stations. Petrol and diesel are very low margin at the pumps. A lot of petrol stations are small businesses running a franchise despite the big company name on the pumps. Petrol stations need sales of crisps chocolates and fizzy drinks to boost profits. When the volume decreases, petrol and snack sales will not be enough to sustain the businesses. As petrol stations become fewer and further apart classic cars that are regularly driven will become more difficult to use so they will get sold. When there are a lot of cheap classics on the market that can’t be easily fuelled and run it’ll mean a lot get converted to electric to keep them on the road. When this tipping point of fast diminishing fuel supply will be is anyones guess at the moment. However it will happen and will have an effect on the combustion car market both in classics and everyday cars. Think of it like cameras when there were shops in every high street that would develop your films. Digital photography came along and they disappeared. As they disappeared more people bought digital cameras because they couldn’t easily get film developed and so the end of chemical films in the mass market came about. By the way, I did once own a few of those £1,500 Porsches. They were brilliant.

[@varmastiko2908]

Did EV sales double or did the percentage of their sales double? A very important distinction.

[@Chogie14]

James, your outro music is by far, the best of any KZbin channel. I always watch to the end

[@GoldenCroc]

Its royalty free, I think. At least, I have heard it on other channels as well.

[@pgtmr2713]

Techmoan has the best outro, no contest. I've put it on audio cassette to hear it that way too, while I was messing around with tapes. I believe both are royalty free music. Techmoan also a great channel for random audio and electronics. kzbin.info/www/bejne/jIS2pKqMj7iagNk

[@SB-pf5rc]

I have a near-perfect rx-8 r3. It's a rare car with an extremely unusual motor, but not terribly valuable. I sure didn't pay much for it. I'm curious to see where its value goes in the future; it could easily become a collector's item or just limp along as it has. Ultimately it doesn't matter, I bought it cuz it's fun.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Great cars!

[@zuranku]

Keep enjoying them. This is what all these people forget and it goes over their heads all the time. Thinking of these cars like investments has had a terrible effect on the market.

[@fortheloveofnoise]

You can get a great first gen RX7 for around 10 grand in the USA....do with that what you will.

[@tamatomlinson]

Absolutely fantastic video. The new laws coming in to place in Britain break my heart MASSIVELY I almost had a panic attack when I heard you say that lol. Thanks for your work everything you do is entertaining and informative and never boring!!

[@juliankent8875]

James, what a fantastic video. I totally agree with what you're saying and seeing the prices of classic cars going through the roof over the years. I've seen it with Aston's that were cheap and just aren't anymore. One I will say though is that with regards to banning the internal combustion engine by 2050🤔. It won't and can't happen. I'm totally with the green stuff, I have a 10 year old son who I want to see have a great life. But there has to be room for all of us. 🙏

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

2030 pal. It can happen and it *is* happening lol

[@weswall7737]

I’m 20 years old and own a 1999 c5 corvette! And I love driving mine and I plan on keeping running as long as possible

[@johang7498]

A great analysis and reflection on the current times and how enthusiast-cars (classics and current sports cars, exotic or not) are positioned in it. I don't entirely agree on cars being better built now than they were in the 1980s or 1990s, though. And especially in lower-priced cars, ICE aren't doing themselves any favours by becoming too complex for their own good (was partly sparked also by environment-legislation, I admit, but still). High maintenance costs of those engines and in some cases repair costs that exceed the value of a car, will also speed up the transition to EV. Firstly for people who aren't into cars, but later, potentially also for people who are or were. Typing this, I'm realising this does sound rather fatalistic; on a positive side, I do think a lot of younger people are still very much interested in cars and as others have pointed out, changes in legislation can be hard to predict. But a future where classic cars still can be used quite easily, will require some action; that's why it's so great that you call out owners to use their pride and joy for everyone to see. Would be a great thing too, because obviously there are many special and beautiful cars, yet even on nice and sunny days, I don't see that much of them on our roads.

[@diegosilang4823]

I suspect the modern car last longer mainly due to improved rust-proofing in their cars since 1993. Back then in the 80's and earlier, it takes only 3 years before you start seeing rust bubbles in your car. A lot of cars in UK made in 70's and 80's were getting scrapped because of rust and instantly failing the safety inspection. It is a lot easier and cheaper to fix bad brakes or clunky engines than a rusted out structural undercarriage.

[@nathanpitman6842]

Bloody fantastic video and absolutely agree. If you own something special, drive it, share the joy of these machines with others!

[@asdreww]

On the legal/regulation side of things, I actually am not fearful for the future. There will come a realisation that EV's are just not suitable for everyone and too many people still have ICE cars, not to mention HGV's etc, & they can't just be outright banned.

[@peejayem4700]

They likely won’t be banned - but they will be effectively forced off the road. In an ever reducing pool of ICE cars that have minimal (if any) driver aids they will represent most accidents… insurance premiums will skyrocket. Governments will subsidise EV’s and penalise ICE car registrations in the name of emissions. Chinese EV’s will become cost effective and quality will increase. ICE cars will be play-things for those willing to pay through the nose.

[@928pcar]

How does everyone charge their EVs at night? It's not feasible to have all EV based on our infrastructure. California is already stealing power from us in Arizona. All EVs will never, I repeat, never work on our current power grid. So unless major cities start overhauling that, which will never get done, I'd say our ICE cars are safe in the future

[@fortheloveofnoise]

Also, you can make your own diesel...and even gasoline...and yeah...

[@ronbean7243]

My miles give me smiles, it feeds my Engineering past, it feeds my nostalgia, it feeds my senses of achievement that the car is better now than when it arrived, better than a any bank , the difference is I do not buy cars as a investment, I drive them, well done for sorting out the investors from the enthusiastic, thank you.

[@FlyingFun.]

I've said this for the last few years,as soon as it was proven that electric cars are a usable alternative the writing was on the wall. I've flown rc planes etc for over 30 years and once I moved to electric from ice on those i never looked back apart from a bit of nostalgia. The same will happen with cars. Apart from the most special examples the rest will just fade into the past. Personally I think it might be good thing if it means I can afford to buy a nice old sports car to actually drive for a little while before they are no longer viable. Converting them to electric could be a big thing though..

[@YouTubeSupportTeams]

Converting them to electric would be expensive and counter-intuitive to why people prefer an ICE car. As you said, mediocre petrol cars will drop so low in price they will be forced to scrap. It's all in their agenda.

[@vanlifenomad]

Superb video everything I've been thinking for a few years now, you put it all into words perfectly

[@Will_M600]

Very nice video, hit the nail on the head, but you'd be surprised at how many young people are willing to take on these cars, issue is boomers hording them trying to make more money than they need to off of young low earners like myself. We now have to wait till our mid 20s to get into proper cars and actually afford to run them. I got an s14 at 18 after working my arse off and I've barely driven it because of cost of ownership, I'm turning 22 this January. Bought an mr2 as a daily because its just about the most affordable classic, still costly to run if you don't have time/space to work on them and horrendously unreliable electrics on it

[@3ducs]

You had to wait until your mid 20s to get the cars you wanted? Boohoo, most of us have had to wait until we were in our 40s to 60s.

[@Will_M600]

@@3ducs not true don't be poor

[@heilong79]

Since Brexit and the Americans wanting Japanese cars all interesting cars in Ireland have increased in price x5.

[@lolmeercatz10]

I thought this sounded familiar lol

[@3ducs]

@@Will_M600 Most of us start with nothing, we have to survive first. Find a roommate or two to be able to afford a place of our own. Then there is a wife, hopefully a kid or two. Life imposes its own rules. Others are born with a silver spoon. Don't be poor indeed.

[@antoinepageau8336]

This was one of my favourite videos from you. It will age well. Another important milestone will be when petrol stations decide it’s not worth keeping a pump open…

[@johnyates2018]

It happened to pubs😟

[@rousemotorsport]

There will be a solution. We have to fight these stupid politicians who want to dictate what we drive. I think eventually car prices will go even higher. People will use there “eco” car during the week, but then want a special/exciting car for the weekend or for track days. As long as electric cars are soulless, people will seek out special cars that create excitement and emotion.

[@racekar80]

Unfortunately the new generation don’t think any type of ICE car is required, even if it’s an occasional use vehicle. They see your expensive toy as, unnecessary and just a symbol of your generational excess. They all want to sit in the back of a Tesla and text and Instagram all day while the car “drives it self”

[@stephenauty2402]

I think you're right , the smell and feel of an old car will be so unique that some will always want that over an autonomous , electric platform which is purely a means of transporting you to a different location, classic cars are about style, smell, noise and enjoyment which will be a rare thing in the future for sure.

[@sonicsabbath]

I agree with you, until Petrol becomes too expensive, Petrol stations close, and you can no longer use your petrol car (unless you import your own fuel personally). But this will probably be 40-50 years in the future

[@sjoroverpirat]

How many people have enough money for a weekend car, really?

[@quincylongman7469]

@@sjoroverpirat i think you need to move the goal post of “weekend car” in your mind in the context of if everything was hybrid or electric and gas cars were weekend cars. Something as mundane as a ford focus might be someones weekend car in the future, like how big american boats here in north america that were just normal cars became weekend crusiers

[@darrylwebb3625]

Superb. The first half in particular is a succinct and accurate description of the market. I'm hugely impressed you've been able to explain such a complex situation in such a clear way. I agree completely but could never explain it so simply. Presently I'm enjoying my cars at the lower end of what you usually feature. Even though that means I've got modest money tied up in cars, I expect to see little depreciation. That's through no speculative insight : they're just the sort of cars I enjoy owning and driving, and hope to continue owning and driving.

[@mrc7966]

Synthetic fuels will keep cars like this on the road I hope. My wife and I are already planning our move to the states if driving cars like this becomes impossible in the UK. I'll export our right hand drive rarities to Japan, go buy a house in the US five times the size of my UK house and run a hemi until I die. Until China cares about global warming I don't either, and the Government can't force me to, because they can't force me to stay.

[@GoldenCroc]

"Force me to stay" - Depending on how pessimistic you are, I am not sure a future government would agree. Historical and current precedent abound all around the world.

[@gooseturbo6087]

I’m thinking the exact same thing. Although I’ll take my cars with me to the US, driving a RHD over there isn’t a big problem. My wife has family in the south so that’s where we’ll go.

[@boogboog8097]

Get out of Europe the civilisation is being destroyed by the eu. The states will either defeat Washington or secede 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲

[@toirmetalshaping]

ive aready started on it. . . .

[@djmandrick]

Hope to hear more of these spoken articles. Enjoyed that.

[@gibbonarms2727]

Fair enough but I don’t think there will be an all encompassing ban on combustion engine cars. There will surely be more of a case of taxing classic motorists to the hilt to allow carbon offsetting or the like to be factored in? Additionally it doesn’t consider the original environmental cost of making the cars in the first place, which is way and above the say 10 year CO2 output of running a classic vehicle. Banning such vehicles would confound common sense, especially considering the low miles they cover, and the current environmental issues with electrical vehicle battery construction and disposal. Though there’s something appealing about once exotic cars costing £1500 again…

[@1183newman]

I think the issue will be the supply of petrol/gas, if there are few cars on the road left using it then there will be very few filling stations and the price of petrol will skyrocket so only the wealthy could afford to run a classic car. This is likely 50+ years away though.

[@gibbonarms2727]

@@1183newman haha yeah, £100 a gallon or the like!

[@yellowbearworks2535]

Thank you for explaining through the lens of an expert what I was just starting to grasp. All your points hit the nail.

[@lexusls4305]

The future of ICE cars is similar to that of horses at the turn of the 20th century. While once a common necessity owned by most of the population, horses now are a passionate hobby of the rich. The bigger question is whether subscription services for vehicles will replace ownership (no matter whether it’s electric, hydrogen or whatever format). I would bet on that style of consumerism as it’s cheaper and just as effective (in theory) as ownership.

[@Traktion1]

This rings true imo, but fuelling hobby cars gets pretty tricky. A horse can just eat grass grown anywhere. Extracting, refining and delivering petrol/diesel is a whole different ball game. It may end up being a hobby that is eye wateringly expensive to fund.

[@lexusls4305]

@@Traktion1 Very true. I can see a day when all those gas/petrol stations are electric charging stations with coffee shops.

[@agoatwithnonamd]

@@Traktion1 My guy have you ever owned a horse? They often cost as much as a Ferrari F430 and with a doctor that comes regularly and ESPECIALLY the space for the horse that you need to rent upkeep is also comparable. The comparison as a hobby for the rich is perfect

[@fortheloveofnoise]

Well right now, leasing ends up being more pricey for most models

[@Mcalisterphil]

Great video, bang on the money Jay! I drive a 03' BMW E39, it's by no means top spec and rare or special, but daily driving an "analogue" car without hybrid technology and tonnes of electrics is a great driving experience. I paid £1400 in 2019 for it and have seen values go up since, some examples sitting around the £4k mark. Not bought for investment, it's my daily which I will drive till I can drive it no more. 100% agree with getting out there and driving ICE cars as much as possible before they disappear.

[@271production]

The costs of owning and driving a car when you're young has become quite extreme. Insurance and gas prices have gone through the roof, and salaries haven't kept up. If as a young person you want to get a licence, buy and insure a car, afford petrol and parking, you have to sacrifice a lot of things. But what do you get in return? the cars you can afford to run are not going to be really fun cars. So you're giving up on parties, festivals, nice smartphones etc etc in order to drive a 70HP Nissan Micra around? And the only thing you will then be using it for is to bring friends to said festivals. There are a lot of young petrolheads, the explosion of youtube channels over the years focussing on grassroots drifting, cheap car modding etc is testament to that. And you also see it in the ever increasing popularity of Sim racing and arcade games like Forza where people find other places to scratch that petrolhead itch. And manufacturers see this too, to some extent. Why bring out cheap and fun cars? They cost a tremendous amount of money to develop and build, but the margins are limited. And who really buys them anyway? Might as well bring out all those special models that need little investment and have insane profit margins.

[@GoldenCroc]

Dont agree fully, You get a good car at a better price than ever. More likely, its shifting interests that are driving the decline.

[@weg5856]

Not that hard, just don't drink and smoke. Easy.

[@ghostfacesam]

Jay, I agree with every part of this video.. I've been a collector for many years and have had all the same thoughts as you have in this video..

[@dominicrusho]

5:26 Use of combustion engines being banned from 2050? Not heard this before James…source?

[@markm0000]

If they ban sales by 2030 it’s not that far off to expect every ICE car can be banned off 20 years afterwards. Most people can’t afford to keep repairing a 20 year old car. The general population is very stupid and politicians are very corrupt.

[@matviyk3066]

@@markm0000 why should they be banned? When it will just be more expensive to own a gas car and the average consumer won’t care what engine their car has, as long as it’s moving them to a coffee shop or to the mountians? Less folks will be enthusiasts of ice cars because race cars are electric. All these factors will squeeze the interest of owning a gas car. You will see a gas car as often as you see a 964 on the road currently. Oh another factor. Autonomous driving. 30 years from now. No one will want to control their cars. Just use them as taxi. Which is why I think ownership will also diminish because they will be used kind of like those rental city bikes. To move from one space to the other and leave it alone. I think a ban won’t be necessary unless people will be really pissed off by the noise. Possibly only farmers or mountian goers will need to own a car. There will be even less ice car enthusiasts. Even if money isn’t the factor.

[@tommycarradice3146]

I expect the politicians to back track on this especially for classics considering the industry is worth hundreds of millions to the economy

[@matviyk3066]

@@tommycarradice3146 that is possible, my state Washington just ended emissions testing. But what’s interesting is lots of catalyzers are being stolen now. Very unpredictable what the politicians do.

[@apexmarbella]

Wow, what a great video! Incredible upload, much appreciated from southern Spain. Loving this channel, thank you.

[@joelpethick3406]

I'm 19 and I'd love to earn enough for things like a Clio williams 2, Evo VI Tommi makkinen, e34 M5 touring etc but for sure there's very few people in my generation with the same interest in these types of cars. Prices are just a bit crazy now tho. I hope my generation can save the market (and lower prices cos I don't see how I can have 50k lying around)

[@fortheloveofnoise]

Get a classic fun car that is not hugely popular...that is the secret. I am enjoying the heck out of my 1996 Chevy Camaro Z28 6 speed manual convertible with less than 70k miles on the clock. For reference, I am 26...I had a Miata at your age as my first car and loved it.

[@pleenc30]

Superb video and echos my own thoughts and feelings, adding more to think about too. Really enjoyed that in a half depressing way. Its very much the same with Bikes, loads of speculators bought into bikes around time of the credit crunch, starting to offload over the last 2 - 3 years. Some homologation specials will always buck the trend, some wont. most will be worthless. Get then used, thrashed and enjoy them while we are still alive / can.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Thanks, glad you agreed with the assessment although I hope we are both wrong!

[@strongerandwiser2023]

The ban on petrol/disel cars will be a real issue too for anyone owning old combustion engines. People dont think its coming, but I truly beleive it is. Its only a matter of time before they introduce outragous charges for these cars to be on the road. That will be the final nail in the coffin for the combustion engine. Look at whats happening in manchester region (Not just the city but all surrounding areas) starting in may next year. £10 a day to drive a combustion engine car anywhere in manchester and it covers right up to wigan and all of those area's north and south of the city. Its absolutely tragic. Ive got a mate of mine who's moving out of the city because he cant afford the extra 70 quid a week he's going to need to live there to drive his car to and from work and he's refusing to get rid of the car because he's spent a fair bit on it recently in mods etc.

[@MagicNash89]

The hell? Are Manchester people so rich they can afford electric vehicles?

[@strongerandwiser2023]

@@MagicNash89 They are going to have to be! If they cant find the money for an EV its time to sell up and get the bus/train.

[@gepwxaqdfsidsesg1548]

@@strongerandwiser2023 there will be the issue of self driving cars. The roads will be optimised for autonomous vehicles and it will be deemed too dangerous to drive a car yourself on them.

[@Punisher9419]

Classic cars are exempt from ULEZ though.

[@nickrichardson7451]

@@Punisher9419 At what year is a classic exempt, do you know?

[@archiegoodwinjr]

I clicked on this by mistake, but am impressed by the logic. Not having to pay capital gains has a huge impact. Also, I'm delighted to hear a motoring enthusiast admit that 2030 will be of consequence. Excellent. Thank you.

[@GreyTheFloydianSergal]

Dare I say, I feel that the younger/future generations are probably going to be put off because of the initial outlay. Furthermore, the last ten years hasn't seen a lot of fun, regular cars. Personally, I haven't seen anything within this age range that makes me go 'oooh, that's cool'. Ultimately, a lot of modern cars have been designed purely to be leased to people as an appliance. I know a lot of older cars like Ford Escorts & Hillman Avengers were too, but I feel modern cars just aren't as captivating to as many people if that makes sense

[@magnitudecarfinance]

Some good observations here and we think you're right about quite a lot of this!

[@presterjohn71]

When it comes down to the wire I think the government of 2050 will allow very low mile usage allowances for classic cars. Just a thousand miles per year would be enough for most collectors.

[@markm0000]

Lmao no way dude they’re making so much money off taxes it’s unreal. Keep the $200k Skylines coming!

[@slideways8022]

@@markm0000 no used car tax in the U.K. if that’s what your referring to

[@sebmanes1401]

Well done - for stimulating conversations around the future trends. I enjoyed it -

[@nebsampson8991]

The governments post-2050 could also apply exorbitant fees to gas powered cars, the revenue from which going to green initiatives. Kind of like the trophy hunting (not an endorsement).

[@seantaylor2683]

That is a terrible and completely unnecessary idea

[@Mpower-hz4gk]

Really interesting thoughts. As others have said, a lot of modern flats don't even have a parking bay. I work in the city of London & the roads are being set up to eliminate the car all together. As you say, enjoy them while we can.

[@davidmarshall6616]

I think there will continue to be a great interest in young people to become "drivers". Lets face it even in the older generations there is only a small percentage of us who enjoy driving for the sake of driving, most consider it a chore. I love to see the enthusiasm in young kids with my two Porsches, a 2017 Cayman and far more so my 1976 911. They both get used daily and i'm always happy to talk to the young folks about them, let them climb in them, take selfies etc. I think you will always find a young generation determined to have what will undoubtedly become something a little naughty. Don't underestimate the urge to control something visceral in an otherwise sanitized world. Long live the internal combustion engine.............................sorry Greta!

[@davidsherley2652]

‘Don’t forget the urge to control something visceral in a sanitized world’. - Well said! Once you’ve driven a visceral driver’s car, it’s hard not to get hooked on the experience. No comparison to a PlayStation at all. Sharing the experience of our cars is an essential part of our stewardship of them.

[@fortheloveofnoise]

@@davidsherley2652 Running from the cops in a video game just does not give the same thrill.

[@philipcupid6660]

Dear Jay Emm, I remember speaking to an engineer in the late1980s/early 1990's who had an F40 and said it was "too expensive to drive", but drove it to car shows & events in Europe - wonder how he is feeling today? Had a passenger seat ride in DMC 12 in Belfast, Lancia Delta Turbo a few months before they went bust, spoke to Victor Gauntlet in the early 80's without knowing right beside the Bulldog; and had a drive in a Ferrari GTC Lusso in 2018 with a car hire co in Maranello. You've hit the nail on the head; accountants and engineering types are all different altogether from Joe Fridays and art collectors...and petrol heads like me & millions of people. Hopefully the world full of sensible brains will realize how much it will cost "everyone" to follow the Electric Dreams" route and change the upcoming motoring events planned. Excellent video as usual..Cheers...!

[@JayEmmOnCars]

Thanks!

[@904carrera]

Excellent dissertation: you cover most of the concerns of the automotive “enthusiasts” community, and effectively combine them with a number of external trends. I have been discussing the same topic for some time with a number of likely-minded friends, with similar conclusions. Didn’t consider the interesting point on the improvement in terms of quality of most cars (although the longer term resilience of materials and technologies is yet to be proven). On the other hand, on a similar note we usually reflect upon the significant difficulty in restoring and maintaining the relatively “modern” classic cars. Materials, manufacturing technologies, components are simply impossible to replicate outside of a high-volume industrial scenario. Cars like an Aurelia B20 or a Giulietta Spider will always be fully “restorable” (if you lack any parts you can remanufacture them with the same material and same process at nearly any decent workshop). Not so sure how to replicate plastics, electronics and specific components of a 1994 M3 E36… unless the OEM would still be willing to supply them through its network (which should be the case today in theory, but the word “NLA” is starting to scare off lots of owners). Thanks for the great content!

[@JayEmmOnCars]

I think it's those late 90s early 00s cars which will be hardest to fix - not as reliable as modern stuff, but far more complex than 80s stuff and impossible to re-make certain parts

[@MattiusMaximus]

Don’t take this in the wrong way, but this was a surprisingly interesting video. Really educational and thought provoking. Well thought through points put across in a simple way for me to understand and agree with. Essentially it’s a speculative market. Don’t invest more than you are willing to lose, and do not buy on the basis of a guaranteed ever increasing return.

[@ShedLifeUK]

I'm going to put faith in current and future petrolheads who save classics from scrap yards and keep them running for many years to come, even if it costs them more than the car's actual value. As we all know, you can't put a price (or common sense) on keeping something you're passionate about running and enjoying the experience of what is now looked back on as a different era of motoring.

[@JamesFox1973]

I drove various cars from the 70s, during the late 80s and early 90s. I appreciated their style, and also the fact I could often pick them up for a few hundred quid. In about 2014 I was running a Mk1 MX5 and a Skyline R32 GTR. I appreciated the MX5 for its light weight and basic fun nature, and the R32 for its heritage, beautiful-sounding RB26 and perfomance. Again, they were cheap. I sold the R32 GTR for less than 10 grand (just look at the prices now!). At the end of the day, a car for me is about how it sounds and how it drives and then appearance comes in third (and investment doesn't come into it at all). Now my fun car is a 2004 BMW 325Ti Sport Compact with an M54B30 transplanted into it. It's relatively light, well-made, rear-wheel drive, practical, nippy and handles well. It makes me smile every time I drive it. and it cost me 1500 quid. :-)

[@RichardGSweet]

I think you’re going to see a massive rise in companies converting classic cars to electric. Think there’s already a few firms doing it to Minis and Landrovers. That’s if plug in electric cars are the future. We’re going to need a lot of new power stations for a start.

[@stephenburnage7687]

I think a limitation on converting old car are they are comparatively heavier, thereby significantly reducing range.

[@fortheloveofnoise]

Fusion powered cars are the future 😮

[@johnm0738]

i feel you've nailed it , we have an almost similar situation here in Australia . great analysis

[@donaldc8351]

What do you guys think is going to happen when all these millions of electric cars get on the power grid in your small European town? You know, the ones making energy from "green" (aka crappy) sources such as wind and solar? You think they will keep up with 24/7 internet usage, crypto mining, industry, heating, etc. Electric cars only work now because there are so few of them. The values wont decrease on these cars, they will just be exported to countries where the demand his high for them because they DONT have stupid carbon laws that wont do anything. Until planes are banned nobody has any business banning cars. If the UK or parts of Europe ban them there are plenty of rich Russians and Americans in red states that will import the cars they want and drive their V12's to their hearts content.

[@benday1218]

Very good insight. I really take care of my 1993 Mondeo. I don't even quite know why. Partly because in 1996 there were 400,000 on the roads of the UK and now there are 1% left (many of which are probably SORN'd with moss growing on the weather seals). It's not about the money though.

[@worthlessdollar1]

Western culture is today in the grip of a revolution that shrieks "Dismantle! Defund! Deconstruct!". In these chaotic times, preserving something - whether it's a car, a boat or a piece of fine furniture - is a small victory.

[@AnyoneSeenMikeHunt]

The looming massive global depression is going to change a few things.

[@JayEmmOnCars]

We're IN a depression!

[@AnyoneSeenMikeHunt]

@@JayEmmOnCars You ain't seen nothing yet, replace depression with complete fiat currency collapse. Great insightful vid Jay and the reason I recently offloaded my entire collection. Fools prepared to pay todays stupid covid cash only come long once in a lifetime.

[@iainmeteorscan1555]

@Flaming Hedgehog Hi Flaming. Totally agreed with your comment. Despite already being in a depression, we still ain’t seen nothing yet! Environmental awareness and tackling climate change will require tremendous changes to our individual way of life, resulting in less consumerism and a slimming down of global trade, with less “real money” in circulation. It’s very complicated, but, essentially, the regular banks, the investment banks, and stock exchanges have, in the last two decades, created money out of money by creating “credit” (which is really debt) whilst at the same time manufacturers have been forced to reduce their workforce numbers by efficiency measures - giving rise to the gig economy that demands higher and higher participation from its participants with reducing returns. A Perfect Storm, if ever there was one. Iain.

[@bitofbritlife183]

Wow, just Wow! Excellent video brilliantly presented. Just subscribed.

[@-Dash-]

We shouldnt be accepting the 2030 and 2050 deadlines... Remind the government they work for us, not the other way around.

[@jon-seattle]

Great, honest take on the classic car market. Thanks