Why This Will Never Happen!

[@gcntech]

Do you think bike chains will become obsolete at some point in our lives?🔗

[@凸Bebo凸]

I don't really see it happening. Belt drive feels like trash and a rubber band when you lay the watts down. That shaft drive in the thumbnail had potential I thought but I guess not.

[@reinholdachleitner2069]

Definitely not,it's pretty much a perfect design.💯✌🏻🚴‍♂️

[@5t4n5]

As long as there's WD40 there will be bike chains.

[@YippeeSkippie426]

Nope. There's a finite number of ways to transmit power from the cranks to the rear wheel. We've seen them all. Chains rule and always will.

[@dcataj5085]

”Digital chainless drive”

[@djgenxx]

You are absolutely right. The chain isn't going anywhere. Its too efficient and cheap to be replaced en masse.

[@mlee6050]

Yeah belt drive is so efficient (if going fast it's more efficient than chain)

[@blankseventydrei]

@@mlee6050 true, and it is cleaner for commuters but unless you have all frames with the access section for the belt, it will not quickly take off. my wife likes her belt drive but is limited to 8 gears and when she hits hills it is a struggle. unless someone develops a cheap bottom bracket gearing system, it will be limited.

[@mlee6050]

@@blankseventydrei I need to research more, I looked at single speed with 14 speed internal hub but unsure how belt drive is other than gap in frame

[@MicroageHD]

I mean, they managed to kill the rim brake too

[@mlee6050]

@@MicroageHD still be around even though harder to buy frames for them, thanks I must remember to buy SRAM HRR

[@romanluu]

Love this kind of history deep-dive content!

[@gcntech]

Thank you

[@arpeggi2999]

If they replace the chain you won't be able to make chain waxing videos anymore. Seems like a conspiracy.

[@JoolsBurke]

Would be great to see belt drive becoming more common for transport/commuter applications - even just for preventing oil stains on legs and trousers. Combined with a hub gear and/or electric assist and it's fantastic for moving more people away from cars for short trips. (Maybe)

[@scopie49]

There's no maybe about it. Bikes are superior to cars. I calculated it and my bike commute vs car both have the same average speed/hour despite the bike route being twisty with a bunch of 90 degree turns I have to slow down for and that my car route has a 55mph highway. Cars are just a stupidly inefficient means of transport. If I had a more direct bike path and/or an e-bike where accelerating/maintaining my speed wasn't an issue of muscle power my bike would be even faster on average. I would LOVE a belt drive for longevity.

[@YippeeSkippie426]

If you have oil stains on your legs and trousers, you don't know how to lube and clean a chain. Get a velco reflective strap to wrap around your drive side pant leg and you'll never have these issues.

[@YippeeSkippie426]

@@scopie49 - Fine. I'll drag race you from Phoenix to Tucson. Whoever gets their first wins the other's wheels.

[@scopie49]

@@YippeeSkippie426 I think you missed the part where Jools said "short trips." US bike infrastructure is horrible and my bike commute is still as fast as a car. If we had good infrastructure my bike would be faster. We're talking about 5-15 mile inner-city trips. Not 500 mile open highway,

[@FuchsHorst]

it's already the case in Germany. As more Pedelecs than real bicycles were sold in 2023, the upper and high price segment is dominated by internal gears and belt drives.

[@felixmarseille6905]

My touring bike has a belt and a Rohloff gearbox, I will never go back to having a chain on that bike. It is so low maintenance, I can ride through mud for miles and not have to worry about anything sticking or going wrong, it just keeps working and is easy to clean afterwards. But I would also never change my race bike to a belt and Rohloff setup.

[@Metal-Possum]

I'm a bike mechanic, I still swear by chains. A few belt drive enthusiasts constantly tout the benefits of their belt and internal geared hub, until something catastrophic happens and they learn that the cost of repairing it or replacing it is far more than the lifespan of the equivalent number of chains and cassettes (especially true for 7/8/9 speed derailleur setups). Belt should last on average 4 times more than a chain, but if they fail prematurely they're rendered completely useless.

[@snowcrazed1]

100% agree. Belt drive commuter I got for $1000AUD (on par with most giant/Trek commuters) is now 7 years old. Brakes, tires, pedals all had issues but still same belt after about 25,000km. The alfine 11 speed hub gear started leading oil, everyone was like now you learn why belts are not good cos of the cost of fixing will kill you Will a whole new hub gear would cost $450, true, but after getting sick of hearing all the negative shit I dismantled it myself, cleaned it up, saw the seals in each side, found they cost about $8 to replace, so I've ordered some. Reassembled and it's not leaking already, imagine when I replace the seals! The only argument against belts and their gear boxes is if they break they're expensive, and their initial cost... If gear boxes were made in volume, they'd be a fraction of the price and it they were more common, replacing seals wouldn't be a big scary deal either. I've since bought a chain MTB too and going back to chain maintenance, dirt, oil, chain wear... Feels like a huge step backwards.

[@Lanceweeda]

How much is a new gearbox? 😉

[@felixmarseille6905]

@@Lanceweeda 1000 euros, thereabouts. But they can last more than 250.000 km. So I think I'm good

[@brandy1011]

@@Metal-Possum The advantage is not necessarily the longer lifespan per se, but the longer lifespan with minimal to no maintenance. How long does a chain and derailleur drivetrain last when it is constantly wet, at temperatures around freezing, with road salt on it, without any care? A belt can deal with this abuse quite effortlessly. Or asked differently: How much time per distance ridden do you need to spend on maintaining (cleaning, drying, lubricating) a chain drivetrain in these conditions to achieve a reasonable lifespan? That effort is just not necessary with a belt and gearbox (be it internal geared hubs or bottom bracket gearboxes), and if you are someone who rides in almost any weather (like myself), this becomes a very important point.

[@Arfonfree]

I think that what will change is the use case for the bicycle. Two of the factors that were involved in making the automobile a near ubiquitous solution to land transport were huge maintenance intervals and low (per km) maintenance costs. However, there are today pressures on the use of the automobile that make it look less optimal for many use cases. I can see HPVs (and electric/human hybrids) becoming much more widely used in the future. This will be accompanied by great decreases in required maintenance. One of the components of that will be sealed drivetrains. We will see more gearboxes, belts and shafts just so that non-hobbyists can just use their vehicles to get where they are going without having to think about maintaining them.

[@PRH123]

Shaft drives for bicycles have been tried many times over the last hundred years, never caught on, heavier and big efficiency losses. Gearboxes have been around for a hundred years also. Internal gear hubs have always had a certain level of popularity. Have always been available to anyone who wanted to use one. What’s a hobbyist?

[@Volkbrecht]

Nah, I don't see this. I don't own a car, and excluding riding for sport, I do on average 5000 km per year just commuting to work and other regular trips like grocery shopping. Which results in me bringing my bike into the shop for maintenance twice a year, and the rest of the time all I need to do is occasionally lube the chain (maintenance meaning everything wear&tear related will be viewed and exchanged if necessary). Parts have become that durable. And if you are looking to the netherelands "sealed drivetrain" can mean a plastic box around your chain.

[@henriwagner2068]

I love my commuter belt drive bike with Alfine hub. Stood in the rain the last 6 years, just replaced the corroded headset, but everything else still fine, working and with no rust. Bikes like these are actually really common for commuting here in Germany. I also love my singlespeed with a chain, but the belt ist just much less maintemance and produces less stains on my trousers, especially in the rain

[@rudolphpyatt4833]

I must add that the first Sturmey-Archer multi speed hub arrived in 1902.

[@PRH123]

Yes indeed, and fully enclosed chain drivetrains could be had paired with Sturmey archer hubs.

[@AGENDA_1938]

maybe - you just don't want to change the GCN logo???

[@darrengarvie8832]

I have a belt drive commuter bike and yes the power loss is quite significant especially going up hills.

[@therealcaldini]

Nice opinion piece. You didn’t mention wax once! After touring abroad for a year I really wanted a 14 speed hub, belt drive, drop handle bars and fat tyres for my daily ride. Gravel bikes have come along since then and some very expensive marques meet my requirements. But sadly I don’t think this will ever come standard/cheap.

[@rustybeardrnr6259]

Love this. Y'alls videos just keep getting better.

[@rolfaalto]

Belts are the way to go for commuter or touring bikes, where you don't want to faff with the chain all the time. My Rohloff is 95-96% efficient, which is better than a slightly dirty chain.

[@matt_acton-varian]

The humble chain cannot be defeated. Whilst belt drives are expensive, they are on the market for applications where the performance disadvantage is not of any concern - high mileage zero maintenance makes them a great option for commuting and adventuring where speed and efficiency are not a priority. Whilst expensive they are still within a range of affordability for mid priced bikes. Even with some limited compatibility, the system is easy to implement and customise. Driven, however is a locked in system with zero cross-compatibility and will only be appealing at the top end - which is already a fiercely competitive end of the market. The minimal gains come at such a significant cost.

[@etherealicer]

I think the price of belt drives is not actually linked to the production cost, but rather the market. Less competition and buyers are willing to pay extra for the belt-drive. Both resulting in a lack of price pressure. But I have seen several kids bikes with belts (single speed and 3x). So, they are getting more main-stream and with that, there is hope that they get cheaper. Belts and internal gears offer a massive performance advantage for people who drive in every weather and who do service only once or twice a year.

[@peterr680]

Belt drives are pretty mainstream already imo, if you look for instance at mid to high commuter bikes etc. Yes, they're not commonplace amongst drop-bar bikes; but afaik drop bar bikes aren't mainstream either. (I know GCN is sort of aimed at drop-bar riders, but still)

[@dvs620]

​@@peterr680Belt drives on single speed/fixed gear work. I would think another segment where belt drives would thrive is MTBs outside of XC racing. Not having to worry about bashing a derailleur on a rock would seem ideal to some people.

[@frazergoodwin4945]

Video released on the same day as the sportive that celebrates the first Safety Bicycle and its inventor - John Kemp Starley. In Coventry the Starley sportive runs today!

[@chairmanmeow8388]

Is that in cov? Not heard of that one?

[@gcntech]

Coincidences don’t exist. 😃

[@carerra911]

Theres a reaon why motorbikes use chains too

[@brandtfleming]

Never thought to look at a "simple" bike chain in this detail. Great content and info. Based on efficiency alone, the chain shall remain KING .. cheers!

[@gcntech]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@cardsfan2397]

I totally agree 100% Bike chains will always be around. No need to replace for any complicated drivetrain.

[@FGIRAFFE]

Interesting historical review ! Thanks!

[@PrzemyslawSliwinski]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="260">4:20</a> - I believe the 1x chain sets will (sooner or later) bring back the chain front covers.

[@longebane]

heh 420.

[@SecwetGwiwer]

The bike chain is the same as a hammer in that it’s always worked and it will always work. There is no better tool for the job.

[@stiffjalopy4189]

Pneumatic chain?

[@robbchastain3036]

It blows my mind to think that for decades in the 1800s mighty locomotives were steaming across the land while the safety bicycle was yet to be invented. And I agree with you, Alex, chains are here to stay, otherwise they'd be carbon wires by now or something.

[@stanley3647]

If You think: Locos from early age has no chains - just direct drive to wheel, exactly like in penny-farthing bike.

[@robbchastain3036]

@@stanley3647 It is just that, wow, locomotives were technical marvels brought to life by brilliant designers and steel workers and it would seem that people creating something that complex could've cooked up the safety bike with two same-size wheels and a drivetrain as a personal propulsion system similar in concept to their mighty locomotives. And ultimately, great that we got the safety bike decades later and not a century or never later. 😀

[@wildaviation5528]

I have a shaft drive Dynamic Runabout which I love to bits. The performance loss to anyone but professionals is not even close to noticeable. I don't think I will ever go back to using a chain and derailleur because the maintenance is just such a time waster. Plus the hard metal case that the shaft is in provides a surprisingly convenient foot rest whenever I give someone a backie!

[@mommamooney]

Fascinating! I loved the history lesson. I agree with your conclusions. I think the next best thing will be what materials will improve the jumble chain

[@MHH3180]

Love belt drives for commuting. Love internal gears as well. Both are great for reduced maintenance and the ability to always be in the ideal gesr to start or climb. Still, there is a weight, friction and cost penalty. For e-bikes those translate to a loss of range. That extra weight on an already heavy bike is tougher to load and unload too.

[@daniellarson3068]

Seems like belt drives and internal gearing would be much better for Winter.

[@MHH3180]

@@daniellarson3068 belts get stiffer and internal gears get a little sluggish, but I still prefer them for commuting, especially on an e-bike. No more missed shifts or being caught in the wrong gear at a stop. Loads easier on the entire drive train, but that does not negate the points in the video. Chains and deraileurs really are light, fast, affordable and almost as reliable as belts and internal gears.

[@PRH123]

@@daniellarson3068 my planetary hubs would stop shifting below around -7 c (Shimano and Sturmey)

[@chrishowell5718]

Crazy that you spend more time name checking Ceramicspeed than considering belt drives or investigating how quickly chain drives drop from 98.3% efficiency. I should think that to get to that level you need to be running single speed, as any bend in the chain line is going to have an effect, particularly if you're running a 1x set-up, even with modern flexible chains. A well-maintained derailleur set up might still be a more efficient way to add gearing than a hub gear, but how well-maintained does it need to be? Looking at (and hearing) some of the bikes I come across, their chains and derailleurs aren't running at anything like 98.3% efficiency. I expect that a brand new, professionally set up mid-range derailleur system is going to be more efficient than a belt-driven Alfine system. Clearly, the derailleur needs more maintenance to retain its efficiency advantage, or, to put it another way, if neglected, it will become less efficient than a similarly neglected belt + hub that doesn't need much attention. The question is, how much extra maintenance effort, and at what level of skill, is needed? I find a chain-driven Alfine hub tolerably efficient for commuting, and less hassle to gear the gears running smoothly. I think I notice benefit after servicing my chain. If I ran a belt + hub set up that was fairly constantly only 90% efficient, but stayed at that level for years, how much effort would I have to put in to maintain a chain + hub that could be 92% efficient at best, but with enough time and neglect would seize up completely? If it's ten minutes every four weeks, I might be better off with a chain. If it's 15 minutes a week or the chain becomes less efficient than a belt, I would be better with a belt.

[@PRH123]

@@chrishowell5718 hmm, chains are comparably very tolerant of abuse, which is one of their advantages, it’s never going to seize up it’s overstated that planetary hubs don’t require maintenance, they do. At the low end the Sturmey and Shimano hubs are poorly sealed from water ingress, and require periodic regreasing, not a simple process for either of them, and above the abilities of the average person. Expensive higher end hubs like the Rohloff are well sealed and run an oil bath with is easily replaced. Drawback though is should the Rohloff need repair you have to ship it to the manufacturer in Germany. And of course if you commute in a place like London, you can’t lock up that Rohloff equipped bike on the street, because it won’t be there when you get back.

[@jbarner13]

I agree with the premise of this video, which is that the humble bicycle chain will remain dominant throughout our lifetimes. One slight correction, though. When we speak of "links", as in 112-link chain, we are really talking about half a link which would consist of either two inner side plates OR two outer side plates, a pin and a bushing. What was described in the video as a link might be more accurately called a "full link," or two inner and two outer side plates and TWO pins and TWO bushings. With wider single-speed chains, there is such a thing as a "half link," which has bent side plates that can be used to connect an inner link to an outer link. I love the fact that the pitch and in some cases width of bicycle chains have been unchanged for over a century. It's one of the the oldest surviving "standards," now that the 100 mm width front dropout spacing is fading away, and is still defined in inch units. The 9/16 x 20 TPI" pedal thread and the ISO BB thread are the two others, though the latter was changed very slightly from the old 1-3/8" standard.

[@klarkolofsson]

Superb video, really refreshing content!

[@ragwort3369]

If you carry a chain tool (as I do), you can also fix a broken chain by the roadside. Try dealing with a catastrophic drive belt failure in the rain 50 miles from home.

[@chrisridethatbloodything2044]

I'm also carrying a chain tool always with me. Was very happy this summer to find a guy in the middle of nowhere with a broken chain.

[@jpg0927]

It has been recommended to carry a spare belt on a long tour. Probably a good idea at all times. The additional weight is like a spare tube.

[@kovie9162]

I'm sure that it's possible to repair broken belts on the road with the proper tool and parts, basically a sort of cam-driven stapler.

[@user-dm84]

What a great video, love the historical elements. Fascinating, love it!

[@cb6866]

Thanks Alex and crew. In 2030 , Dr Bridgewood invents the "O fusion " drive , and changes history .

[@gcntech]

Are you from the future? How much does a pint of milk cost in 2030?

[@cb6866]

@@gcntech all consumables are free BUT , the old Rumplestiltskin clause rears its ugly head

[@NelsonSherry]

The first production derailleur was by Le Chemineau in 1912. I think you're kinda over crediting Mr. Campagnolo here.

[@CheeseAlarm]

Good point. I just posted to this effect. I should have scrolled down first.

[@Golding87X]

Guess which one sponsors GCN?

[@kovie9162]

Didn't Campy invent the modern, parallelogram-based derailleur, with previous designs being based on worm gears and the like?

[@NelsonSherry]

@@kovie9162 My recollection is that Simplex actually invented the parallelogram derailleur and Campy then bought the rights to use it and made it popular. Suntour designed the slant parallelogram, some 20 years later, that we all use today.

[@Ostsol]

Like everything, the choice in components should depend on what you're doing with the bike. I chose a belt drive for my commuter because of its low maintenance. At most, you have to spray it down to get rid of any dirt or dust, but that's the case for any bike. No lubrication is needed and it'll never rust. This is great for riding through puddles and rain and through snow in the winter. Being that it's a short distance commuter for local shopping, I'm quite happy with the 3-speed Shimano hub in the rear.

[@Ettridge]

I think your math was a bit off: 200 watts affected by a range of 98.6 to 81% efficiency results in a range of 2.8 watts to 38 watts lost, not 18 watts.

[@ThePeter123a]

The efficiency of a chain drive increases with increasing power. Because the losses on the returning chain remain the same, while the losses on the pulling side increase. Therefore the efficiency at 50 W is significantly worse than at 500 W.

[@j.h.4506]

I think it was metric watts, not imperial watts

[@ThePeter123a]

@@j.h.4506 As the inventor of the steam engine, James Watt invented horsepower in order to be able to market the machines better. Watt is one of the SI units.

[@Ettridge]

@@j.h.4506 Percentages of something don't care about the unit. What I'm talking about is 98.6% leaves a 1.4% loss and 81% efficiency leaves a 19% loss. 1.4% and 19% of 200 watts (be it metric or imperial) is 2.8 and 38. I'm guess the math error was seeing 100-81=9 when it's actually 19.

[@stiffjalopy4189]

@@j.h.4506watt?

[@bartoszp2135]

Belt drive bikes become more popular this year. You can find some basic bikes for 600 GBP in the discount. For commuters great deal! No maintanance, great durability. When you put 100W to your bike, 2 or 5 wats difference isn't a huge deal.

[@凸Bebo凸]

It's not the efficiency, it's that it feels like a rubber band and the feel is unpleasant.

[@henriwagner2068]

​@@凸Bebo凸No...? Belts are incredibly stiff and definitely do not feel like "a rubber band" lol

[@凸Bebo凸]

@@henriwagner2068 Maybe it feels stiff to you when you drop the 100 watts and nothing happens. When I drop the 1800 watts it feels like a rubber band, don't like it. Only a good product if you've never felt peak bike in some way.

[@top1gaming472]

​@@凸Bebo凸why would you drop 1800 watts to a commuter bike?

[@凸Bebo凸]

@@top1gaming472 Not arguing with people that like belt drive. Enjoy your rubber band.

[@gcvrsa]

I'm a really big fan of singlespeed bicycles, simply because I loathe maintaining shifters, but also because of the sheer elegance of a singlespeed design; however, it's quite true that riding a singlespeed is a lot tougher in many circumstances that involve elevation changes. Still, if I could have a belt-drive singlespeed, or with a manually-operated internal gear rear hub or CVT rear hub, that would really be the low-maintenance ideal. For out and out performance, it's highly unlikely that any of these options will ever be competitive with chain-driven multiple chainwheel and cog systems with derailleurs, but the vast majority of the cyclists in the world will never need to worry about being competitive. For most people, cost is the overriding factor, and on that score, chain wins by a country mile. The lack of mess and maintenance of a belt drive system is something that only the well-heeled and the cycling tech geek set will opt to pay for.

[@凸Bebo凸]

Once you ride fixed you are never going to be able to be happy with belt. With fixed the drivetrain is perfect, no jockey wheels, no nonsense. Belt is even worse feeling than jockey wheels and chain slap, a true fixed / single speed rider would never be able to accept the poor rubbery bike feel of the belt drive.

[@impaledface7694]

If you ever feel like doing the middle ground try friction shifting. It's awesome when you aren't racing since it can work with almost any derailleur and with minimal to no maintenance. It's now my preferred shifting way.

[@kovie9162]

@@凸Bebo凸 Singlespeed and fixed are not the same, the latter being a non-freewheeling version of the former, and I imagine less suitable for belt drive. But, in either case, has belt tech not advanced to the point where there's little to no loss of power or response relative to chains? But I've never ridden a belt-driven bike so I wouldn't know from experience.

[@凸Bebo凸]

@@kovie9162 I ride 150 miles of fixed a week, no need to explain anything to me about it. If you haven't ridden belt or fixed why comment on what you don't know for a full paragraph trying to educate someone who rides way more than you? Seems a bit autistic work on that.

[@凸Bebo凸]

@@kovie9162 Shut up dude you don't ride fixed and you're too poor for belt drive. Go ride your hybrid 7MPH with the little mirror on bothering people every time they pass you.

[@Bodkin_Ye_Pointy]

Things you didn't mention. Chains are used for the same purpose in machines, such as the motorcycle. BMW uses or at least used a drive shaft that presented issues for stability from the torque. Chains are the simplest model for propulsion allowing for resolution in situ for mechanical failure. Other systems almost always require workshop attention With reference to the above, replacement of and manufacture of chains is easy by comparison and allows for the simplest mechanisms for the remainder of the drive system.

[@einundsiebenziger5488]

Not to mention that many car manufacturers switched from drive belts to chains to drive alternators.

[@pompeymonkey3271]

I love your summary. Bikes are, and should remain, for the masses! :)

[@NelsonSherry]

Multiple gears came about pre-1900 with internal hub gears and flip-flop hubs. Tulio just made shiftable external gears a working thing, not multiple gears in general.

[@davids4610]

"more expensive and complex" sounds just right for bike manufacturers

[@impaledface7694]

A bike chain being expensive is because you buy fancy parts. On a commuter 8 speed setup is optimal for cost, or you could go slightly newer. Heck single speed is even better since you need no maintenance. If I was seriously worried about bike chain cost I would go back old school and run an encased chain with lube inside. At most I can see belt drive or shaft drive takeover for e-bikes with their already built in transmission. Functioning a lot more like a motorcycle then a bicycle.

[@philiphumphrey1548]

I thought the same thing. For my old 3 x 8 speed clunkers, replacement chains cost about a tenner. They seem to last about a year of my usage, regardless of how expensive they are. I suspect the 1 x 11 or more gears on modern mountain bikes and hybrids amount to more trouble because of the thinner and less robust chains, sprocket etcetera.

[@Shellewell]

You haven't mentioned ease of maintenance and changing. People can understand how normal gears work and there are no complex internal parts. Bikes with a chain and a cassette all work in broadly the same way and any moderately proficient cyclist can get their head around changing the chain or a cassette. There is an automatic assumption that the ceramic speed design would be harder to work with, and people don't want a solution to something they can work on themselves and is already pretty efficient.

[@256shadesofgrey]

Frequency of maintenance is a factor too. And that's where belt drive is currently the undisputed king.

[@Shellewell]

And yet people keep coming back to chains, so it must be less of a factor than you might think. Plus, if a belt drive isn't single speed then good luck to the average person trying to address any frustrations about their gears.

[@scopie49]

@@Shellewell I'd say people not knowing about belt drive is the reason they don't use it rather than them specifically choosing a chain. Chain drive is just internalized. Everyone grew up with a chain, everyone sees chains, chains are on almost every bike that exists. Then for those who would like a belt drive you find out the cost of it up front which is a huge downside that prevents people from adopting it. I had fully intended to get a belt drive but it would've been almost double the price of the bike I ended up buying after the cost of the gearbox. If the prices were much closer I'd have chosen a belt guaranteed. I'm never going to race and fiddling with the chain and derailleur has already become kinda annoying. Gearboxes are really reliable as well. There isn't much to go wrong that would require most people to need/try to service it themselves.

[@Crall-xb8he]

Just carry a chain tool and if your chain breaks mid ride you can fix it back up to get you home. A belt or a shaft looks more robust, but failure would be a long walk home. And probably more expensive, in the case of a shaft system.

[@scopie49]

@@Crall-xb8he A belt if very unlikely to ever break. Belts have torque ratings beyond what motorcycles can put out. You're more likely to see fraying and know there's an issue before a belt just randomly snaps. Bike packers have gone across entire continents on a single belt in insanely harsh conditions without issue. The metal of the chainring wears out before the belt.

[@BoonBreyne]

I'm not sure belt drives will have a 90% share in the future, but it surely will increase it's share significantly compared to today.

[@10ktube]

I'd be fine with a chain if we had airless tires that held their own against our current speedy options. No flats and no maintenance until they wear down. Sign me up.

[@ericpmoss]

It is very unlikely. If someone asked me to invent something that would provide cushion with minimal weight, and would never lose that spring, and would be shippable in minimal space, I would have to invent air. And if someone asked me to invent something that would grip a road under varying conditions without hooking into it, and last for thousands of miles and not be loud or dangerous in a wreck, I'd have to come up with a fabric casing bonded to something like rubber.

[@dmitryhetman1509]

There is option to inflate it with foam that they use for construction vehicles, and google other solutions. You can buy strongest tubeless tyre with strongest sealant like silca and put insert inside so it will run even if you get puncture

[@gcntech]

It sounds good in theory, but reality isn’t like that. In fact, we have a video discussing it. 👇 kzbin.info/www/bejne/fXLFm2ltfbqtnJIsi=0y3F_IHL-O6aY4o5

[@PRH123]

Schwalbe marathons will guarantee you never get a flat.

[@jimmyryan5880]

Bic pen, saftey pin and the bike chain. Designs so good they seem like there were always here.

[@letsgoOs1002]

After going to belt dive with internal gear hub for ebike, i hate going back to chains. It's just so much better for cargo bikes and commuting

[@BROtheBRAWLER]

not enough axial stability on that large spur gear, but look nice anyway ,)

[@williamwightman8409]

I agree, chains are here to stay. For applications that require very long life, can be less efficient, and have zero maintenance or lubricant, the belt drive with enclosed gearbox is great also.

[@KekusMagnus]

The main problem with a chain is that it's exposed to the elements, so while it can last 30000km when waxed regularly, in practice a dirty chain will hardly last 500km. Fact is, most people never ride anywhere close to that. Internal gear hubs with belt drives require effectively no maintenance easier and will consistently last tens of thousands of kilometers, but they are heavier, more expensive and less efficient. Thus, chain alternatives only make sense for commuting and long-distance cycling, which is a small sector overall. e-bikes are one area where belt-drives actualy make a lot of sense, I expect them to gain popularity

[@shanold7681]

I think you said it best with the fact that the chain is 98.4% efficient. No one is going to drop Thousands for a 1% increase, Not ever enough to keep a company afloat.

[@philiphumphrey1548]

Belts seem to have taken over from timing chains in cars. The justifications being that belts are cheaper, lighter and quieter. Cheaper only for the manufacturer, the motorist still gets an enormous bill at the end of 10 years to replace the belts.

[@kovie9162]

Unless you DIY, which I do. But clearly not for most people as it's a pretty involved process and if you don't get it just right you could destroy your engine. That said, timing belts or chains, unlike ones on bikes, aren't meant to transfer power, but rather synchronize crankshafts with camshafts, so that the valves will open and close in sync with the pistons. So they should last much longer, as there's far less stress on them. Plus they're fully enclosed, as opposed to ones on most bikes. Of course, one should never wait until they wear out to replace them, or you'll be stuck somewhere at best and out an engine at worst.

[@gilescudmore7325]

I saw the Ceramicspeed at a bike show a few years back and my forst thought was that it looked deadly, it is a spikie spinning disc!

[@kovie9162]

But great for grating cheese on the go!

[@Metal-Possum]

I was critical of this CeramicSpeed vaporware immediately after it was announced. It was a publicity stunt that probably had the engineers uncomfortable while the marketing department make unattainable promises. Too many small bearings without seals, a "cassette" made from aluminium that would skip under any load-induced flex, even more so in lower gears... and they never did show us that they had working shifting before everyone forgot about it and the development seemed to have gone quiet.

[@YippeeSkippie426]

And the NOISE!

[@Ragnarok043]

the other big issue is that point of contact between the drive shaft and cassette is like only 2 or 3 teeth engagement which i dont know how you can make it strong enough without making it bulky and lite enough to compete with chain drive

[@stanley3647]

Biggest 2 problems they forget: 1. Metal will flex/bend with force 2. Metal expand with heat, and shrink with cold. What they presented, will only work in "perfect" enviroment.

[@sunny5142]

Thar concept was so hilariuosly stupid I can't believe they even showed it. You simply can't trick physics - the force transmission to only one tooth at a time on the rear knocks the system completely out. o

[@Golding87X]

​@@sunny5142Spot on. The involute gear profile exists for exactly this reason. Can't add in loads of ceramic bearings for no reason with those though.

[@Greyalien587]

I have a engwe e-bike. Thing I love about it that it is nothing special, all parts can be replaced by generic stuff u find in the store. Even the electronics can be switched easily. This is what makes biking romantic to me, just a regular man and a cheap Amazon toolbox. I’ve spent countless nights playing around and if the parts were specialized that joy would be taken away from me

[@atimholt]

I have a belt drive, with an Enviolo continuous transmission. I kind of need it, though, (enclosed, works when very weather-exposed) because I'm biking in the winter in Alaska. The company I bought it from (Priority) prioritizes low maintenance (so, for example, the frame is aluminum).

[@b.l.f.750]

Absolutely loved this. All hail the bicycle chain!

[@edwardcollins741]

I don't have a problem with chains, but derailleurs really suck for utility cycling, especially if you have to deal with road salts and lots of stop and go riding. A single speed chain in a chain case will probably last as long as a belt with as little maintenance.

[@buddy7136]

The biggest benefit to a chain drive isn't the efficiency it's the gearing. The average human isn't going to really notice the difference between 96% and 90% efficiency especially if they only have the one bike. If they can figure out the gearing on a lower maintenance system, while not forgetting cost, thats where the improvement is to be found. In my opinion.

[@bartman21]

Love this kind of tech content. Awesome explanation and personally great entertainment. Great job @AlexPaton

[@stanley3647]

Chains will stay with us for long. Only what we can expect to change: - material: Chains made of different materials (different metals, composites etc) - lubrication: Progress with "solid" lubes like wax, PTFE or similar things And still is space on market for belts or shafts (for low mainteance bikes)

[@melibaut]

How interesting! Thanks for the video.

[@guillaumebarrette9040]

I 98.6% agree

[@williamshakespeare5646]

Question can be raised, if the 98% efficiency is believable. Remember a chain is a primitive drive system. Unlike a gear it is not involute, it transmits part of its torque in a series of spikes. Put your bike on a stand and in the eleven cog, turn the pedal by hand. You can feel the bumps. The rear cog is effectively an eleven sided polygon. On a rigid test jig it may be 98% efficient, but driven by human legs, the torque spikes will be smoothed/attenuated/absorbed by the leg muscle. On a ten tooth cog maybe 10% may be lost?? This won’t show up in power transfer from crank to cog; losses occur within the muscle. If you don’t think this is the case, then why not have a four tooth cog. Which would be square. Maybe a square cog is 98% efficient.

[@CamiKite]

It's not only a matter of price and efficiency, but also hype. For instance in road bikes, disk brakes tend to replace caliper brakes while not more efficient and much more expensive

[@jasonfenech5347]

Great content as always ❤

[@williamroberts6937]

At 98%+ efficiency, cheap, easy to maintain and replace, it's a case of 'if it ain't broke don't fix it'

[@BurntKittyForge-pl8ol]

i like the creative tinkers with chains, one vid the man welded a strip and used it flat against a sprocket on the steering wheel to push the tie rods left or right , it could make a cool slip gear maybe if you ground a few teeth off the sprocket so it slips like many electric airsoft piston mechanisms , it lacks another bearing or bushing atleast on the contact points ....{ i mean the chain in a flat orientation on a flat bar or...

[@fredericfrancois3234]

you don't know your numbers ! a 116 links chain is made of 464 pieces of metal (4 by link not 6)

[@craigblowfield8821]

2 inner plates, 2 outer plates, 1 pin, 1 roller = 6 parts per link

[@ryancraig2795]

​@@craigblowfield8821isn't there also the bushings connecting the inner plates?

[@snowcrazed1]

​@@craigblowfield8821doesn't that double count plates? The next pin already has 2 plates, you're only adding 2 plates, pin+roller at each link.

[@craigblowfield8821]

​@@snowcrazed1 I think what is considered the link is the roller and pin at the centre with the inner and outer plates open ended on either side.

[@chrisridethatbloodything2044]

@@snowcrazed1 exactly! For each pin 1 roller + 2 plates. 4 parts.

[@Conrad_mit_K]

I like the point of the mentioned evolution over centuries. It cannot be better described calling it a „refining“ process. Pointing out that this includes advanced science over the past decades, be it in terms of engineering, materials, and not to forget computational science.

[@artsteale3443]

Chains for road bikes are good. My next EMB will have the Pinon gear box and belt drive, I have have broken off too many derailers on the e-bike to ever buy another EMB with a derailer.

[@Doniyorbek_Turgunov]

1500s are the 16th century ;)

[@einundsiebenziger5488]

... are* the* 16th Century.

[@kaltonian]

It's like the tin opener, you know the design you get in a swiss army knife, the old basic one will last forever unlike it's newer modern one with turning mechanisms that do eventually break, simplicity is the one, some things are hard to improve upon, would be interesting to see an alternative that stands the as you say stand the test of time

[@stink1701]

File all those things away with other impossible dreams, flying cars for instance, or a proper high speed rail network in the US. Good video and I agree with you.

[@waterof1465]

i watched this because i felt nostalgic on the thumbnail i remember watching about it when i was into cycling

[@danbance5799]

I don't know if it'll ever take the top spot, but I expect continued growth of belt/gearbox drivetrains for one reason - lower maintenance. If the pricing were the same, I'd make the switch.

[@reiddryden9805]

Good thoughts 💭,Roger

[@keacoq]

The chain has 'always' had the same tooth spacing. Is there room to improve this? Would longer or shorter links be better?

[@XavierBetoN]

Downside of belt drives isn't the cost, it's the dependency issue, all of them requires cut frame. However, it is possible to make a hybrid belt, that has 1 roller chain link in belt's specific shape to use it in existing bikes, I'd go for it.

[@XavierBetoN]

Cost itself is cheap, there are millions of belts in the market if you don't search for specific "bates garbon bike chain" you just need a belt and cog, the link that can connect the belt ends is the required item. (at least for me, an engineer)

[@kovie9162]

I know very little about modern e-bikes but I imagine that there might be some designs that offer yet another alternative to chain drive, which is a generator driven directly by the cranks and installed by or a part of the bottom bracket, that either charges a battery that powers a rear motor, or powers it directly, either by means of electrical cables. I don't know how practical, efficient, costly or reliable this would be, but it would work. But assuming no quantum leaps in technology, we'll probably be driving bikes with chains forever, the only possible replacement being belt drive. Everything else is either too heavy, inefficient, unreliable or costly.

[@rfwillett2424]

E-bikes and belts effectively using the motor as gearing, it looks like it's making headway in the urban bike segment. Personally I find single speeds a pain in the arse, motor or no motor.

[@someguy4708]

as someone who has ridden bicycle with total ignorance to chain lube, i can say yes

[@daniellarson3068]

Do the chains that are used for 10 or 12 rear clusters last as long as the bigger chains of just a few years ago?

[@gaza4543]

sram AXS red do count speak for the rest....

[@einundsiebenziger5488]

Some even last longer because the narrower chains with their thinner plates have to me made from stronger material (harder steel, more abrasion-resistant coating).

[@stuarthys9879]

Rather than trying to replace the chain, I think replacing the materials would be a better idea. My main problem with chains is that they attract dirt, but why can’t that be solved more effectively. For example, CuNiSi has self lubricating properties. There must be better materials to use than steel that don’t require removing the chain as in waxing. Maybe a non-greasy lubricant would do the trick, but I haven’t come across it yet. At least, have chain and cassette that is corrosion resistant. That can’t be too difficult to make for a few extra quid

[@chrisreid6237]

Price comes down with volume and the issue isn’t the serious riders, they will probably always prefer chains, it’s the casual commuters that better suit belts or shafts due to the massively reduced maintenance. It’s well worth it for me to get a belt driven bike, commute on a drizzly day and not need to spend any time whatsoever re lubing the chain out cleaning the rapid onset of rust off them. The trouble is that volume isn’t high enough yet to bring the cost down into the territory of the casual rider. It just needs that tipping point.

[@fotmheki]

Totally agree, it's really hard to best the chain in performance/cost ratio. Only the belt system is more suitable in some scenario as there is a very noticeable reduction in wearing of the parts that make up for the initial higher cost of installation and is almost maintenance free and works in every conditions with minimal loss in efficiency compared to the chain.

[@grumbazor]

belt is perfect for everyday bikes. Bikes that are just a mode of transportation for people who do not want to care about it. I like it that these people have that option

[@kestrimurgel5155]

Almost maintenance free until it isn't. And then you find there isn't a bike shop in a fifty mile radius that carries parts. At least with a chain, every shop in the country can repair it easily.

[@scopie49]

@@kestrimurgel5155 This is a problem that could be solved by higher adoption rates of belts. And it's also a niche case where a monopoly sort of helps. If there are only a select few companies that have gearboxes then there won't be as many possible iterations of parts a bike shop would need to carry. Granted I think gearboxes have issues so infrequently that it makes more sense to just have parts shipped as needed.

[@ryoukokonpaku1575]

​@@scopie49​ trust me you'd need availability or it being fixable by bike shops if you want gearboxes for commuters/touring/e bikes which are the target for this. I've had my pinion gearbox breakdown on my touring and had to wait for almost a month for a replacement since they don't have any service center in the country and any LBS cannot work on its internals since it needs specialized tools to disassemble. It had to be shipped abroad for replacement, also it's not infallible, when it does break its impossible to recover from unlike a chain drive where you could go single speed or swap the broken chain. For performance bikes, I don't see the chain drive going anywhere as the weight to efficiency ratio is just that good. For perf bikes

[@scopie49]

@@ryoukokonpaku1575 I feel like it would be less of a problem as belt drive became more and more widespread. LBS would want to carry parts if like 50% of users were on belts instead of the like.... 1%? that is is now. The long delivery time for spare parts is really the fault of the companies that are selling gear boxes. Because of the way a gearbox fails (catastrophically and unusable until fixed) these companies should have spare parts lying around in excess and overnight shipping. It would also help is the bike industry would stop pushing proprietary bullshit and just standardize already. LBS hate having to carry a billion variations of thing. For chains alone they have to carry like 4 different types just for how many speeds your bike has. Then there's brands and their tier levels of chain, colored variations, pin style, etc. All unnecessary. I want belts to become more popular and bring the prices down so that I could consider getting one without feeling like I'm paying an adopter's tax.

[@chrisburn7178]

Every time that ceramicspeed product has surfaced again (it's vapourware BTW) I've said the same thing. It's fundamentally flawed from a force point of view. In a chain/cassette, the drive load is spread through several teeth/links resulting in a robust and long-life system. This thing is asking all of the torque from a big guy mashing the pedals up a climb to transfer through one tiny bearing. Even if they somehow magically make that interface stiff enough to not bend and skip, both the teeth and the bearing are destined for rapid destruction.

[@333wheeler]

I used to live next door to some guys who raced motorbikes and built them to race in the TT. They always looked at my bike and tut tutted at the way a double chainset 6 block bike would run with the chain out of a straight line. Guess motorbike chains do not flex in the same way. :)

[@Turbobuttes]

To be fair belts are steadily gaining ground in the commuter, cargo, touring and e-bike segment now that low maintenance internal gear hubs are already established, pinion gearboxes are finding a foothold and chains continue to struggle with mid motor torque. My next commuter bike will also have a belt drive for zero maintenance, zero headache, zero dirty trouser legs operation, and even on my sporty weekend gravel bike I'm only still using a chain because of the weight advantage of derailleurs and because wax exists. Oiled chains get dirty so quickly on anything but pure road bikes, and they demand so much bloody cleaning, it's bonkers. 100 miles on gravel and you can scrub your drivetrain for half an hour. Oiled chains never again!

[@OperationDarkside]

I find electric-electric transmissions interesting. Not because of there efficiency, because they're not, but for their ability to link multiple riders with different power and RPM outputs. Although an incredibly niche application, multi-person bikes or recumends could benefit from it.

[@RowdinGaming-sf1lq]

I've had a belt drive bike for a year now, won't be going back.

[@LaLaLand.Germany]

The chain is hrer to stay. Period. I personally ride an 1997 Wheeler street bike with Dura Ace and 600 parts that were top notch at the time. It´s a proper 10kg bike, comes up to 12 with all shanenigans required. This bike STILL rolls with its original drive train, I was incredibly lucky to find and get it. It just needed cleaning and an inspection, some new tires, cables and there You have it: a 27ys old chain drive, still going strong, no problems. I´m gonna hold on to this one... All the other stuff is cool, too but to me it´s more a "look at me" thing, look what I got. Kind regards

[@phinhager6509]

I own four bikes. Two with chains and two with belts. If I could get a Brompton with a belt, I would switch. my road bike I think I would like to keep with the chain. I am very happy with my tourer and my beater being belt drive.

[@dutchanimal010]

I've always been baffled that anyone bought into the hype of shifting across a giant exposed Cuisinart blade at that cost

[@davidr2862]

Chains will probably always be the mainstream solution. However, I have two pinion / gates bikes in my stable and I put far more miles on them than anything else. I love the reduced maintenance. I change the oil once or twice a year and that’s it.

[@JohnR31415]

Familiarity is a big issue as well. People don’t like change. And the chain is “good enough” for the majority of applications - even if it is surpassed in various roles it’s still not “bad” in many of them.

[@noControl556]

Chanis are still mostly used on motorcycles due to the loss of efficiency in other options, if a 100hp motorcycle doesn't want to give up a chain for that reason, a pedal bike surely won't either

[@edb8120]

The square link chain similar to the daVinci design is still used in agriculture equipment.

[@zedtony8110]

Good video That's ceramic speed system was not even a proof of concept because it couldn't change gears, that's why it was revealed to the world because it was dead research.

[@paulgallagher2937]

They were just looking to get some marketing attention to their company. The drive concept was total crap and unworkable.

[@KaushikNSanji]

"New Motion Labs" has already come up with a different chain and drivetrain design that is tested to be 99% efficient.

[@oceanedetotes]

Leonardo Da Vinci is a genius, without him, we couldn't have any bike !