Will Climate Change Be the Death of Wheat? || Peter Zeihan

[@olblue81]

Hey Peter, durum wheat farmer here. Farmers quit growing wheat and switch to corn not due to climate change, but because genetic gains of corn by breeding programs are roughly 3:1 that of wheat. Grow wheat and your yields don't increase anywhere close to inflation rates. Grow corn and you get roughly 3% higher yields every year. Grow wheat and you get slightly less than 1% higher yields every year. Markets have this thing where they expect farmers to get paid the same price as their grandfathers did so the only way to pay for combines and tractors that are 20 times more expensive than what their grandfathers paid is higher yields. Yearly corn increases drive wheat farmers to plant corn more than climate change does. Am I spraying fungicides, insecticides and herbicides on my crops? You bet. Not because of climate change but because I'm trying to get higher yields in an effort to keep pace with inflation.

[@kurtisb100]

My grandpa always said that a bushel of wheat should be the same price as a barrel of oil. Not sure I agree with him exactly on that, but I will say that food consumers have extremely unrealistic expectations for prices.

[@johnfranklin6394]

This is great insight. Many thanks for sharing. My brothers-in-law are dairy and beef farmers in the UK, and they also face similar challenges to increase their productivity while containing costs just to keep pace with inflationary pressures on their inputs from suppliers and and downward pressures from buyers on farm gate prices.

[@sergiysergiy]

Would you eat your own corn after all that fungicides, insecticides and herbicides? Hones question, I wonder how healthy it is.

[@longdongsilvers483]

@@sergiysergiy you dont eat field corn donut, do some research about where your food comes from

[@dovbear]

Honest question here from a non farmer. At what point does the increase in yields begin to drive down the price and negate the higher crop yields?

[@davidcampanella2593]

As a Canadian, your call out of Quebec wheat caught me off guard. I believe Saskatchewan produces the most wheat in Canada, followed closely by Alberta. I seem to recall that these two provinces have ~75% of the farmland in Canada.

[@bob_lemoche]

I am a quebecker, and I too had to do a double take... Quebec as a wheat producing powerhouse dosnt sound right, especially compared with sask/alberta. On second watch, it is clear he is talking about wheat being displaced by other crops, not total yeild. I'll have to do more research on that, but my understanding is that that claim is coming from some incentive to continue to produce wheat for local food production security; producing your staple food locally and not relying on import.

[@djblackprincecdn]

The Prairies have belts some of the most fertile soil in the world too.

[@romanpiwosz5372]

Subarctic Canada, Patagonia and Syberię is the future

[@marcguindon8499]

@@davidcampanella2593 I believe he was talking about how some countries such as France (and regions such as Québec) value food security so much that they reserve some very fertile farmland for wheat when it would pay more to grow higher-value crops. Seems like past famines remain in the collective mind. But you're correct, the prairies are Canada's breadbasket.

[@A1qwerty55]

He think avocados grow in North Carolina. You can stop listening after that doozy.

[@adelahogarth2761]

Nothing will kill wheat. Western Australia basically terraformed a bunch of dry scrub with some phenomenal infrastructure into massive wheat fields that are amongst the most productive in the world. If Australia can turn the least glaciated, some of the driest land on the planet into fields of wheat--I'm pretty sure wheat will be fine. And we don't really 'grow crops that will do the best'. Australia is also a phenomenal example. Literally farmers only grow wheat in Australia where only wheat will productively be grown with export input capacity. A whole lot of places where we could grow even more wheat,we just do broad acre grazing. You grow what will make you the most amount of money (including choosing not to grow anything at all... just use loads of land for grazing). You grow wheat in all the places that will only reliably grow wheat.

[@Kknewkles]

Goddamnit Aussies, is there any limit to your awesomeness :D

[@Corny80]

With coming restrictions on fertilizer, pesticides and artificial watering in many wheat producing countries, wheat production will take a significant hit but it may vary between places. Australia never cared much for their environment so it seems plausible enough they could do this, it may not be sustainable though.

[@milisha98]

I'm not as optimistic. My parents live in the Eyre peninsular a couple hours out of Ceduna where of course wheat dominates. There was a botanist/surveyor called George Goyder, who created something called the Goyder's line. Further north and there's simply not enough moisture to seed crops like wheat. And it gives way to salt bush (which I'm sure you've seen across the Nullabour). Well, the farmers there are going bankrupt by the bucket-load - some only getting one good crop out of 7 now. The township is dying. And that line is expected to march south at least another 100km as the temperatures increase. If our hard-working tough farmers can't make ends meet now, how are they going to then?

[@davetupling2678]

All living things can lose their habitat as we see every passing year, WA

[@knoll9812]

Australian wheat is not highly productive but they cultivate a large area.

[@jasonneugebauer5310]

I'm not with Peter on this one. He started out by saying wheat grows like a weed. Then he said that there would be less wheat because climate change. That is a nonsensical argument. Weeds grow everywhere. I think Peter is trying to say some marginal lands on which wheat is currently grown are likely to experience desertification. This is true now and has always been true as decade/century/melenial scale climate change occurs naturally over time. The Midwestern US used to be an inland sea, then climate change happened. In the short term, human activity has absolutely changed the climate of the earth and will continue to do so rapidly. But CO2 is not the boogeyman, causing negative impacts to the climate. In actuality, CO2 has increased the growth rate of most terrestrial plant life by 100-200% of pre-industrial revolution levels. Plant life was dying of CO2 deficiency, and now it is not. The biggest human factors affecting climate change are physically changing biomes. Forest, sevana, swamp, and other biomes to cropland and city. When the biomes change, the weather changes as a result. When the weather changes as a result of changing biomes then, the new crop land may no longer experience a climate favorable to growing crops, rendering the land less usable. Forests and swamps are often key to maintaining a favorable climate. If you remove the thing that does a job in nature, you now need to do that job to get similar results. For example: if you remove the ruminate animals from the grasslands, then you have to do the cow/bison/buffalos job and mow your lawn and apply fertilizer. But you don't get the beef by mowing your lawn. Instead, you spend your time money and fuel doing the cows job, and get the satisfaction if knowing the number one crop in America "lawn" looks nice without feeding anyone. Another huge impact for climate and agriculture causing changes to rain patterns is cloud condensation nuclei, which are tiny particles of dust, salt, or smog that all rain drops and snow must have to form. The problem is that we often have too many of these particles, allowing rain and snow to form and fall before the moist air has reached its normal destination. This can cause rain to fall out over the ocean before it even reaches the land. Or, the rain can fall just past a city or other source of dust or smog, leaving down wind areas without rain or snow. Sometimes, people even spray particles into clouds to cause rain in select areas, essentially taking the rain that would have fallen somewhere else. Example: California government causing snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains increasing their snowpack and water, thereby reducing rain in Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. This causes climate change. Another huge cause of climate change is sheep, goats, camels, and other animals when allowed to over graze. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the concept that when mainly sheep and goats (and to a lesser degree other animals) eat all the baby trees grass, bushes, and other plants before they mature and seed, you make bare ground. Bare ground doesn't hold soil or moisture. Large areas of bare ground without foliage to cool the air become dry because hot air holds more moisture, which prevents rain. Example: the eastern shore of the Mediterranean see used to be a forest and Iraq had more grasslands and less salt in the soil. The trees and grass cooled the air and caused rain and also kept the sun off the ground, keeping the soil moist, which made the plants grow better in a virtuous loop of rain and vegetation. Then, over time, people cut down the trees and fed all the vegetation to goats, sheep, and camels, thereby allowing the soil to dry and bake in the sun, raising the temperature, causing all the moist air to continue past without raining. This is a vicious cycle of desertification and starvation as less vegetation is available and more vegetation is consumed by the animals. I have seen an area in Kuwait fenced off from the roving bands of animals that consume everything in site. That preserved land is good grasslands surrounded by Berean sand. Ultimately, as some marginal land changes to less favorable climate for crops, other land will have climate change, improving sustainability for agriculture. This is the way of nature. But if humans our animals destroy biomes or take too much from the soil, that is an anthropological change that will take wisdom, corrective action, and time to reverse. But the efforts are well worth the time, changing deserts and other suboptimal land into more productive, valuable, and livable biomes.

[@nicolasgirard2808]

Everything you said is true except for the part where you dismiss CO2 entirely. I don't understand why you would do that when we know beyond any reasonable doubt that greenhouse gases result in higher global temperatures which is climate change.

[@jasonneugebauer5310]

@@nicolasgirard2808 my personal opinion is that CO2 does increase global warming. But, the benefits of increasing CO2 up to this point have been more positive than negative. At 200 parts per million in our atmosphere the biosphere was dieing. Up to 500 parts per million in general life will do better with more CO2. Beyond 500 parts per million I think we will see diminishing returns. If the earth warms a fiew degrees, the climate will become more tropical and support more life on land. Grasslands could become jungle and tiga could become Grasslands. Also deserts could also become greener with the increase in water vapor and CO2. It's already happening, check it out! I do believe we need to save as much hydrocarbons as possible for future use. Right now we are squandering some of our greatest resources as quickly as we can extract them from the ground. I have read that we are using 100,000 years worth of hydrocarbon deposits every year now. It doesn't take a scientists or a mathematician to figure out that our rate of use is completely unsustainable.

[@nicolasgirard2808]

@@jasonneugebauer5310 your fundamental misunderstanding here is that it's not the absolute amount of CO2 that's necessarily a problem. It's the rate of change. Mass extinctions in the past happened because of rapid environmental change.

[@RussClarkRocks]

You should have stopped after the first sentence. The rest was pseudo-science jibber-jabber.

[@lancesilverman8435]

Thank you for the lesson. Fascinating information

[@andrewpolito9244]

Wheat is a tough crop. It will be fine

[@richardtaylor6341]

Yea it is funny to hear a "guy" like Peter talk about farming as if he has ever been in a field. Growing up in Iowa doesn't make you an expert on anything except monoculture corn and pigs

[@comradeklar5749]

Oh no, it most definitely will not be fine. Actual farmer here out in Eastern Oregon, and it now consistently gets hot enough to interrupt or stop flowering (the stage of growth where most plants put on their seed, what we eat). Two years ago it was so bad we took a 70% loss across our entire 7k acre farm. Wheat cannot grow above 90 degrees. So, if it keeps getting hotter, wheat yields will start to drop. I'm sure someone will say, 'BuT iT gEtS oVeR 90 eVeRy YeAr'. Yes, and the wheat stops growing when that happens. But in most of the US, morning and night temps are well below 90, so the wheat gets a break, grows at dusk and dawn, and pushes through. It'll take a yield hit, but that's okay, it'll survive. Over 100 during the day, and 80 at night? That window of cool temps just got a whole lot smaller, and the wheat will start to struggle. If the average temp hits 90 (average of day and night temps) in the US, we will start to see major groups of crops dying unless they're in a greenhouse. Sugarbeets cannot be harvested if the beet is over 58 degrees or it rots in the pile. Most vegetables cannot handle anything over 85. Mint likes high temps, but even it starts to struggle above 100. Corn loves the heat, but it loses yield over 100 as well (depending on humidity levels). Most bean varieties that are shocked out of flowering will never produce a crop. And we haven't even begun to talk about the losses we've seen to bushel weight because of the insanely high daytime temps. We've had fields with bushel weights of 37 pounds, a 40% loss. Some fields the heads never even fill. Just... empty husks. One farm just over the mountains had fields with 1 bushel per acre that year. The average in their area is 60. So, 1/60th of normal yield, AND a 40% loss in bushel weight. That is a 97% loss in yield. This is very real

[@qqqube]

We could always eat millet and go back to living in the trees, assuming they are not already occupied.

[@lowrads3653]

Pathogen populations will get a head start without an overwintering die off. Producers will shift to faster ripening crops, but it's a red queen's race.

[@IshmaelPrice]

It's not like it's a matter of wheat vs. no wheat, it's about the total yield and arable land when the planet becomes too hot and what even a 5-10% reduction in yield would do to food prices and the number of people starving.

[@guru47pi]

I don't think wheat will die off completely, but the biggest non subsidy reason we grow wheat in dry places is fungal infection from fusarium head blight. If an area is too humid, you either need to treat with huge amounts of fungicide, or accept that you'll lose most of your yields to FHB and the neurotoxins it produces. For example, Minnesota and Iowa used to be the world's breadbasket. That's why Cargill, general Mills, and Pillsbury exist. Now the closest wheat is hundreds of miles away in the DRY high plains of North Dakota etc.

[@mateuszQRDL]

Concise and super informative, thanks.

[@Skippy-s1g]

Isn't it funny how all "climate change" arguments all fall like a house of cards?

[@brandonhallam51]

Yeah but if Peter doesnt repeat the party line on climate change then he wont have hiking budget money...

[@colinmacdonald5732]

And yet wheat yields are higher in rain swept Ireland than the USA.

[@seanlander9321]

@@guru47pi Peter has a great deal to learn about cropping.

[@Wulfieman]

An Argentinian company that develops drought tolerant wheat will soon start selling their seeds in the US. This will be great for the states that don't get much rain. Edit: The company also seems to produce drought tolerant corn. For those interested, the name of the company is Bioceres. Both seeds were developed alongside the CONICET (National Scientific and Technical Research Council).

[@dabeage]

Does Monsanto know about this?

[@Wulfieman]

@@dabeage If they don't already know, they'll probably find out soon enough, and either acquire the Argentinian company or buy the patents for those seeds. The thing is, Monsanto isn't really liked in Argentina.

[@dabeage]

@@Wulfieman My point exactly, Monsanto will never allow those seeds to be sold here in the U.S.

[@JoeGator23]

@@Wulfieman Monsanto is hated everywhere, so is ConAgra. Both predators to the world's food supply. They have been destroying farmers for decades now across the planet. Seed patents will not hold up once the next great depression and wars start within the next decade. These globalist corporations are "invading" our natural food supply and trying to make Mother Nature extinct for their own gain.

[@jakeaurod]

A biotech company outside the US that is named after a pagan goddess? You'll get both the Greenies and the Christians hating this one.

[@jerryrichardson2799]

Thanks Peter, more coverage no one else does.

[@mitchellhawkes22]

Of all agricultural products, wheat is the most resilient, the most reliable crop. You don't have to baby it, to coddle it. Wheat is tough. It can grow on the margins. In marginal soils, under marginal condtions. We will always have bread.

[@knoll9812]

Never heard that wheat can grown on marginal lands. Wheat us grown on good soils

[@CR7Ashironaldo]

nice to hear, i want my bread

[@gagenater]

@@knoll9812 In some of the major growing and exporting regions (US, Canada, Argentina, Australia) it's only grown on the worst land. Wheat is only grown on good farmland in areas with very high population densities which are food importers, or where high subsidies make it worth growing. Everywhere else there is good farmland, something with a higher profit margin is preferred.

[@chapter4travels]

How is comment this helping with the climate "crisis" narrative??? That is the point of the video, if you want facts, go somewhere else.

[@gagenater]

@@chapter4travels The title is clickbaitish, but the content is fine.

[@TheJohnnyjackflash]

As a family who has farmed wheat for over 100 years in central west, Texas the production has actually increase because of the technology. And weather has not been a huge issue goes through cycles and it’s been pretty regular even with the so-called climate change the biggest problem is input cost, and the price of the wheat. At this rate, no one but huge corporate farms will be left in America within the next 20 to 30 years. And that will cause a huge increase in price when monopoly finally occurs in BigAg

[@farber2]

60 pound bushel of wheat, $5, will make roughly 50 loaves of bread, wheat ain't going anywhere.

[@rideausheep]

Plant breeding changes everything, there was a brand new GMO variety of wheat announced Aug 24 by Syngenta seeds. that is highly drought tolerant. So no worries folks we will always have our bread our pasta our cakes and or Tim Hortons Doughnuts

[@saskwatch123]

There is no such thing as a free lunch. Plants cant grow without losing water, You open the door to let CO2 in and water escapes out. Close the door to save water and no CO2 gets in. Turning off your car will save you gas but it wont get you anywhere.

[@FirstDagger]

5:55 Rice is flooded for pest control, not for the crop itself IIRC.

[@gagamba9198]

Arrests weed growth.

[@spsmith1965]

Peter knows it's flooded for weed control. It's in his book (the end of the world...). That's actually where I learned this.

[@tuckersabath2099]

​@@spsmith1965you sound a litle like peter

[@EnergyTRE]

To bad rice holds little value as a food other than a filler. Better for fuel or paper 😂

[@spsmith1965]

@@tuckersabath2099 thanks. But I'm much funnier than Peter. He tries to be funny in his books. He should stick to what he's good at.

[@jakebjenstrong]

This is a prime example of somebody who makes statements with enough confidence to make people believe they are qualified to speak on the matter. I would be interested to see him go back through his predictions to see if any of them actually came true.

[@gianpaulgraziosi6171]

Start farming boy.

[@geoffg9760]

This is a prime example of listening to a Chris Williamson podcast and pretending it's an original thought 😂

[@paulieprinceton4550]

Peter has been predicting the collapse of China for over a decade now. One of these years he might be right.

[@shooteveryday1841]

My anecdote- we stopped growing wheat in the Great Plains because soybeans offered a far better margin

[@ansmerek]

Soybean used to feed cows which in turn add to further environmental damage. 100% true

[@DeerheartStudioArts]

always enjoy your insights!🦌💌❤️👍

[@danamyrocket]

Food production is the quiet monster of geopolitics. Failed crops in the Sahel toppled governments like tenpins. No government can withstand their population going 3+ days without bread. Oldest rule in the book.

[@Skippy-s1g]

That's why they are already using it against us.

[@campfireeverything]

👏👏👏 Ace comment

[@GaryBeckner-u7k]

A new type of consolidation summary of the hot topic and always nice to see someone able to provide a simple summary. Would be nice to see references to experts in the field.

[@ScottMarquardt-s7u]

Wheat: today is my 3kth birthday Peter: You are doomed because....

[@todddammit4628]

Glad to here you talking about climate change more. I'd love to hear it integrated into more of your takes on geopolitics and demographic shifts.

[@jimroberts1944]

I noticed it’s getting hotter because I see young women are wearing less and less on the beach👍

[@RicBentley]

That would fall into the category of “who will benefit from climate change”. (The viewer)

[@bradsillasen1972]

@@RicBentley Depends on whose wearing less. Sometimes more is better ;-_

[@ruralhobo]

That was in the sixties, man.

[@garyshan7239]

thats called fashion trends

[@kansan50]

Need to allow hemp use. It could replace a lot of crops that we have surplus of. Also there is research on a perennial wheat, once planted just maintain year to year.

[@tilapiadave3234]

too many pot-heads spraying lies regarding MIRACLE Hemp

[@jeremieletellier807]

Québec is not a wheat region at all… southern Québec, where the « good » land is, is basically on a corn/soybeans rotation now. Think Minnesota with french road signs.

[@veeli1106]

…now we know why the Nordiques are not coming back!

[@edgarroste7855]

Quebec grows a very very tiny amount of hard winter wheat. But even with climate change there is not enough suitable land for more.

[@Skippy-s1g]

And totalitarianism

[@MrToubrouk]

Protecting our culture is not totalitarianism.

[@BasePuma4007]

Peter just talking ouf of his ass again

[@ScottWengel]

Love all your videos Peter but would even more appreciate a whole series on climate change affecting populations,

[@ryankc3631]

People adapt, that's how it affects them.

[@ScottWengel]

@@ryankc3631🥱 we're all here for real world analysis. not cute phrases!

[@Mikell-h2c]

In Central New York, the weather has improved immensely , milder winters, bumper crops ,everything’s coming up roses😊

[@1OverWeightDragons]

It should be cold and snowy in winter here, go back to Florida

[@Mikell-h2c]

@@1OverWeightDragons ?

[@stevenbenson9976]

For now

[@biterwriter]

Ah, sweet denialism, how I miss it. Enjoy it while it lasts

[@Mikell-h2c]

@@biterwriter ??

[@rlmiii9789]

Love your Hikes bro. Thanks.

[@shanekrupinski7871]

There is an old saying in northern Alberta "don't listen to man with a bun in his hair"

[@IshmaelPrice]

easier to just say stuff instead of think or come up with a real argument

[@nomadtv6009]

Because anyone listens to people in Alberta?

[@charleshunter2041]

LOL

[@shanekrupinski7871]

@@nomadtv6009 You should listen to people from Alberta, as a matter of fact you should go to Alberta today and stop at every oil rig, refinery and pipeline facility and thank the men and women who work there for all there hard work. Without them the country would come to a screeching halt. While you are doing that stop and talk to the farmers who are harvesting there bumper Durum wheat crops and ask them "what is the biggest issue you face, the climate emergency or carbon taxes and government regulation."

[@Alsacien]

I live for Peter's amusing little jabs at my country every time he mentions France.

[@Skippy-s1g]

To be fair,you do really suck.

[@mitchellhawkes22]

I'm a Californian. Nice to think that Peter likes it here. But his broadcasts last year from New Zealand felt so much more exotic. Because....they were.

[@crosslink1493]

He filmed this in a part of the Sierra Nevada Mtns backcountry that rarely gets visited by humans (usually just John Muir Trail/PCT thru-hikers). Yosemite Valley is about 5% of the national park and where 95% of the visitors congregate. Also Tuolumne Meadows.

[@AnthonyJMendoza-f7i]

@@crosslink1493 I wouldn't say rarely visited. The back country in Yosemite is crowded everywhere in mid-summer. 5% of 3 million visitors is a lot of people.

[@tilapiadave3234]

New Zealand exotic??? Just because they enjoy making love to sheep?

[@WailuaMark]

Love hearing your take on topics that you touch on, Peter. While climate change is a concern for me, the Earth's current magnetic pole shift and resulting protective magnetic field decline should be a must larger concern that I'd really like to hear your thoughts on. I know that you can't possibly read all these comment's, but hopefully someone is able to catch your ear on this topic. Thank You!! All the best!!!

[@lex6819]

Sorghum is pretty heat resistant. We must get used to eating drought resistant grains.

[@DanielL-ee7fe]

Do you know that sorghum gives you constipation? It's not very palatable.

[@buildmotosykletist1987]

Nah, wheat will be fine. Crop yields for wheat are increasing not decreasing. The one problem could be gov't control of input prices.

[@visitingprof]

Several years ago, I did a global scenario for a top-three ag chem company. We saw that the most at-risk crop was corn or maize. It is primarily an animal feed crop but has pretty poor drought and extreme heat tolerance. The stocks still grow, but fruit production drops very rapidly. There have been some GMO seed modifications to develop tolerant crops, but those were put on the back burner to market pesticide tolerance. You only have to look at your home state of Iowa to see the yield drops in the several extreme heat droughts over the last 25 years. The disruptions from this will hit animal feed supply first and cause potential switches to soybeans. How things play out will depend on soy's resilience and its ability to displace corn as the key animal feed. The net effect will likely be much-changed in the economics of animal meat production.

[@AlbertLloydy]

I'm sure we can develop wheat that is resistant to climate fluctuations. Just like how they developed rice that grow on dry fields.

[@robertsmith4681]

We've have blight resistant potatoes for 100+ years, weather resistant wheat rice and corn and such for 50+ years hippy trippy ""eco warrior" types are doing everything they can to limit it's use under guise of "fighting GMO".

[@mam0lechinookclan607]

If growing food gets more complicated in the future, i will have a very save Job in my Field. There are allready resistant strains and older variants which are promising, or we grow diffrent crops again entirely. The downside to all of it, is a reduced output, but since we use a big portion to feed livestock, there is a very high buffee of how low the output can shrink, before food security gets out of hand. Prices will go up, but mostly managable.

[@DaddyAl-Baddie]

the way things are heading we might need rice that grows inside nuclear reactors

[@mam0lechinookclan607]

Wheat production really just took of with industrialization, befpre that it was a minor crop almost everywhere. Its not the main crop since dawn of time, like Peter said.

[@nathanpost3656]

Most Australian wheat varieties are now already drought resistant… 💪🏻

[@gagenater]

At least in North America, wheat is only grown on the land with the coldest weather/climate and crappiest fertility, because it's so low profit. If there is sufficient demand for wheat, you can rest assured that a LOT more could be grown.

[@dakitz]

Wheat handles heat quite well compared to other crops

[@jimthain8777]

Sure. How does it like torrential downpours? 7% more water in the atmosphere, means those downpours will be heavier, and more frequent where they happen.

[@DanielL-ee7fe]

@@jimthain8777 Downpours are seasonal. There is no such thing as uniform downpours through the year.

[@dakitz]

@jimthain8777 we got 15 Inches of rain this year handled it fine, just shows you don't know about farming

[@highend79]

​@@DanielL-ee7feintroduce unpredictable season, now how is last winter

[@IshmaelPrice]

It's not like it's a matter of wheat vs. no wheat, it's about the total yield and arable land when the planet becomes too hot and what even a 5-10% reduction in yield would do to food prices and the number of people starving.

[@neleig]

Hey Peter! Ever heard of dry land wheat? It grows where it doesn’t rain. It’s a big crop in the US. And there are other grains that will and have supplanted wheat, such as sorghum, rice, corn, amaranth, barley, oats. And as the US Midwest warms, the growing corridor will continue to shift towards Canada, which already grows a lot of grain. And modern growing techniques and technology is expanding output.

[@kenbell8752]

Interestingly, there was no mention of the Canadian prairies. I thought we still produced a lot of wheat, too.

[@GK-wn6ur]

Peter probably sees them as a small extension of the American Great Plains.

[@tilapiadave3234]

Canadian Fairies ,,, quite a few in Quebec from what I hear :)

[@geoff9759]

I watch for the feel good content.... Thanks Peter, stay safe and stay still.

[@codyj7532]

Farmer here from Saskatchewan- we grow the bulk of the world’s wheat. Left wing policies are a bigger threat to us than climate change.

[@AmateurBMS]

Left wing politics? Like in ensuring normal people health care at an affordable cost or that people are not killed at work?

[@mbak7801]

The UK and Germany combined grow 5 million tons more wheat than Canada. Though Canada does produce a particularly good variety for some types of bread.

[@saskwatch123]

Saskatchewan produces about 15 million MT of wheat annually while world wheat production estimates for this year are over 780 million MT. Don't let facts get in your way.

[@AMERICANPATROIT101-y7r]

@@saskwatch123our great news says Ukraine was europes bread basket. Sunflower bread? They also couldn’t stop saying it was full of nazis and few years ago either USA here….my more southern populated than the US Canadian brother Don’t listen to Europe,or WOKE Justin AND YOU BOTH NEED TO PAY FOR YOUR OWN DEFENSE And we love what you’ve done with the diversity…looks like it’s working out well for you guys and maple leaf WE ARE TAKING OUR JOBS BACK HOME, WHERE THEY BELONG ITS NOW THE NEW NAFTA. THE NON NAFTA you can have you shale oil,we DONT need it and we make our own syrup soooooo If I want gravy on my fries,I can make them too

[@gianpaulgraziosi6171]

Cody’s World is his EnTiRe world.

[@ArizVern]

LOVE YOUR OFFICES.

[@mitchellgoodwin2214]

yup the world naturally changes crazy!

[@nicolasgirard2808]

And adapting to change is costly. Food prices go up, then people whine about Biden because they're ignorant

[@imnotanalien7839]

Great information in the comment section.. I learned a lot about corn and wheat! Thanks comment guys! 😊

[@derekmartin2817]

Brazil has developed tropical tolerant wheat. It can yield comparable to us south east double crop wheat areas.

[@seanlander9321]

@@derekmartin2817 Australia has developed dry land wheat and rice. Peter really needs to catch up.

[@tilapiadave3234]

Brazil is always full of crap

[@seanlander9321]

@@tilapiadave3234 The Brazilian wheat variety just might give Brazil self-sufficiency. However, the variety requires more inputs and has a tendency to fall over, which in Brazilian soft soils is probably going to give unreliable cropping. The wheat is also relatively soft, which all-in-all means it’s more likely to be used as stock feed.

[@tilapiadave3234]

@@seanlander9321 Might / could // it is possible / maybe ,, I prefer to work with facts. I do hope it is successful , times ahead could be very tough

[@seanlander9321]

@@tilapiadave3234 Agreed, we are always one crop failure away from the world being hungry. The last time it happened was 1916 when only Australia had a wheat harvest to export, so we are long overdue.

[@andyw_uk74]

I would suspect that, when those marginal lands currently being used for wheat become unusable, countries and farmers will start allocating core farmland to wheat instead. Governments won't risk a food shortage. Hungry people mean political instability and possibly even revolutions (remember the Arab Spring?). It's more likely high value-add crops currently being grown on prime farmland, like avocadoes, will be drawn back instead, to keep wheat production up.

[@Skippy-s1g]

That would all be very insightful if the entire argument wasn't a crock of steaming shit.

[@waltk7624]

Climate change 🥱😂🤣 the sky is falling the sky is falling chicken little 😂

[@jarnMod]

4:00 "Western calories" We in Asia eat rice. It grows very differently. I don't think warmer means much for rice, at least my rice doesn't seem to be very affected. Drought or flood are the problem for rice, but I think there are more issues with the climate than just what we can see. By flood, I don't mean that hand-deep puddle, I mean a man deep flood. I think you forgot about what China does well about water management. They make a lot of talking refrigerators that can tell when water level drops, and turn on the pump, or water rises, and turn on the drain. That's the kind of semi-conductor that China does well. The same thing is being transferred to SEA where I have a resident. It reduces labor required to do the rice. Problem is the man--deep flood I mentioned. Drought is kinda come and go and at least in my farm we have underground water that can serve in a pinch. Mostly the dam help, tho. Also, the puddle is not only for weed. It brings its own problem, namely other kind of pests, but it also create its own ecosystem. Some bugs only be there and suppress other rice disease. There is also that snail thing that eat rice when it's in puddle, but there will be some birds that will come and take care of those. I think the climate threat is on those creatures making up the ecosystem. If those birds don't come, we will have to bring in some ducks. It's these kind of complex ecosystem that can go off the rail if climate gets too bad, not just the rain or weather.

[@JackHawkinswrites]

Observe Suspiciously

[@whothefoxcares]

eat meat and live.

[@moggadah]

...and the meat eats wheat (couldn't help the rhyme, at least the meat needs plant material to grow)

[@immortaljanus]

@@moggadah You can graze livestock on land that is too poor for wheat or any other crop. So no, the whole "let's plant wheat instead of raising livestock" doesn't work.

[@JuanIgnacioPucheu]

Brazil has developed wheat varieties that yield 7 tons per hectare in tropical climates. They are now almost 10 years in use.

[@JuanIgnacioPucheu]

In fact, they were Argentina's best customer for wheat, and now they are auto sufficient.

[@danamyrocket]

While requiring heroic amounts of fertilizers when grown on deforested land.

[@Skippy-s1g]

Shhhh The malthusian is speaking.

[@melange78]

This topic is much more complex than this. The biggest problem is food from the oceans as the oceans are getting acidified from the CO2 increase and that leads to rapid food depletion. The second problem is water availability for land living plants, then the third problem is the additional competition from weed plants that thrive better in higher CO2 than our food crops and finally the reduction of plant proteins as you increase the CO2 you get lower yield in protein per gram of yield (as the plant will use the energy for increased carbohydrate production).

[@john1boggity56]

Great post. Can I add in the huge problem of extinction events. Some ecologists think we will have lost 50% of all species on earth by 2100 due to the amplifying effect of co-extinctions etc. This will.impact on our niche enormously.

[@Skippy-s1g]

Did you know, that with that much bullshit you could fertilize three acres? Fact check true.

[@pipi182281]

@zeihanongeopolitics I think this was my question which I have submitted to you, thank you very much for the video!

[@tjtgetjtge]

Pipi you would be better served to ask an expert rather than a generic commentator.

[@deulavremotsuk3563]

As long as grasses grow and ruminant animals exist, it'll be fine.

[@tilapiadave3234]

Are Vegans a ruminant? Some delicious looking herds live locally :)

[@IshmaelPrice]

It's not like it's a matter of wheat vs. no wheat, it's about the total yield and arable land when the planet becomes too hot and what even a 5-10% reduction in yield would do to food prices and the number of people starving.

[@tilapiadave3234]

@@IshmaelPrice You seem to be missing the major point and it is about transportation. No good if Australia has a spare 20 BILLION tons of wheat and the hungry are in Egypt if there is not secure transport ,,,, no good being able to grow huge amounts of food with fertilizer if you can't get the fertilizer transported to the growing areas etc

[@IshmaelPrice]

@@tilapiadave3234 That's a fair point. I don't know if I was missing it though, I was just saying that even a modest reduction in yield and farmland could lead to dire consequences globally. But you've raised an important issue that it's especially important that we don't lose farmland that's close to the places where people live.

[@tilapiadave3234]

@@IshmaelPrice A modest reduction in yield is NOTHING compared with major exporters not being able to ship their grain or major exporters not being able to grow the grain due to not shipments of fertilizer. If wheat could be grown economically near places that import then it already would be.

[@brendafosmire6519]

I really love your video locations after a hike our outdoors. I live in Colorado and love the mountains and the western US.

[@stevenstart8728]

A bit of scare mongering from another doomsdayer. I own and run a mixed farm in Australia so probably have a little insight. Wheat varieties are suited to their environment as well as their market specifications. We grow wheat from the cold wet long seasons of the south to the hot arid margins of the desert. The best quality comes from the hot areas. Lower stock feed grades from the wet areas. Wheats biggest challenge in Australia is input costs, commodity prices and land costs. Sometimes wheat is in favour. Sometimes it gives way to other commodities like hay, pulses or livestock. Pretty sure this isn't the first time people have encountered a changing climate.

[@Hoonbernator1590]

Aussie grain industry participant here too. Australia's broadacre cropping is really the definition of "just add water". Just need those international prices to stay up, and if Peter is right about impacts to supply then the price should be compelling in the long term.

[@tilapiadave3234]

Are you suggesting climate has changed over time ? I'm shocked ,,, LMAO ,, semi tropical rainforest plants found under the ice in South Pole ,, it is the rate of change that is a worry

[@stevenstart8728]

Why should I worry when your doing enough worrying for the both of us. I think your worrying is doing Jack shit. You'd be better off doing something like planting a tree or collecting up some rubbish or growing a vegetable garden and have a few chooks. But no lets just worry.

[@KipIngram]

Peter you have really helped me have a much deeper appreciation of where I had the good fortune to be born. It seems like across your whole spectrum of "future problems" coming as a result of deglobalization and demographic change, the U.S. seems to come up smelling like roses more regularly than any other place in the world. Damn happy to be an American and for this to be the place my children, grandchildren, etc. will live their lives. And you've also taught me that China isn't nearly the bogey man everyone seems to feel like it is. Sure, they have nukes and that could run everyone's day real well, but other than that, I've started to just regard them as a non-issue. We just have to manage them in a way that doesn't tip that nuclear glass over and wait for them to roll over and become irrelevant.

[@mdav30]

Do you watch the news? We're having huge dangerous heat waves every summer, breaking records all the time. Just because in the short term we're better off than other places doesn't mean it will go well in the long term. I'm up in California and it's been regularly about 110 this summer.

[@KipIngram]

@@mdav30 I wasn't meaning to make any reference at all to the climate. I'm making a very broad observation that the US seems better off than much of the world in a lot of categories (like demographics, even though our demographics aren't "perfect).

[@raterNAZ]

Soylent Green will save us all.

[@Skippy-s1g]

That's what'll be on the menu if we get into a "civil conflict" . Plenty of Soylent green running around.

[@tilapiadave3234]

That is why I love Vegans

[@mikebottrall9685]

Hey Peter you forgot about Australia. We are a major wheat exporter and have designed our wheat for dry and hot climates. )ur wheat only stands two feet from tip to root to maximize seed production.

[@bohdanburban5069]

The Little Ice Age ended when temperatures started rising. Go figure.

[@finnjones625]

As a Brit, I'm kind of happy that wheat isn't an expense since I, as well as many others here, like wheat-based products, such as bread & pastry.

[@anu1776]

the climate as a topic is fundamentally insanely complex, the academic literature is almost never read through by anyone and those whom have read the literature that has formed the basis of the current narrative have found many issues in it, for instance their models being wrong, especially long-term; also, their way of measuring is inadequate and has many pit falls. the current narrative is a insanely simplified summary of a certain viewpoint within academia, which has many valid critiques which aren’t touched upon.

[@MIEJ4]

Yet people that are in denial on here are the proper experts, right?

[@anu1776]

@@MIEJ4 your response to my statement is off no substance and obviously a rhetorical question, one whom bases their beliefs on “experts” that’ve created these narratives is as ignorant and unwise as the “deniers” you’re referring too. good luck with your narrow ways of viewing reality.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

True, most models have underestimated the rate of warming.

[@knoll9812]

30000 climate document are peer reviewed that is science. Mostly anonymous sources do not do a peer review. They claim that other anonymous people have found problems.

[@anu1776]

@@anabolicamaranth7140 not what i'm takling about.

[@mnm2007]

Have you mentioned the crazy historic Saharan rains and Peter ?

[@uditfonseka]

Peter---I thought in a few decades you said there were not going to even be hundreds of millions of Chinese to starve.

[@robsrockinout]

I've been listening to Peter for four solid years and he's never exaggerated that claim as much as you're implying. I think he expects us to be on par with their population by 2080. 400 million probably I had to guess.

[@scottdewitt-on7ui]

Roughly 50 years is what he's been saying . The numbers indicate that it isn't exactly his opinion. Same issue the Japanese have been having for 30 ish years now .

[@Milk-rn5uq]

How are you going to quote peter and then misquote what he said?

[@Skippy-s1g]

The science is settled. Trust the science

[@Mr_Fairdale]

You have angered the fan boys lol

[@davidwelty9763]

This is the second time Peter has said Avocados grow in North Carolina. Wrong, they grow in Southern California, Florida, Mexico, etc.. They are a tropical plant. No one grows them in North Carolina.

[@mesflyer]

I've never heard "North Carolina" and "avocado" in that same sentence.

[@ferebeefamily]

Interesting for sure.

[@marthamasdeo9833]

Obviously, he meant to say MEXICO as it's the world's largest producer. That said: How he conflated the 2... Hopefully, I will never know. Perhaps he was suffering from altitude sickness

[@GHST995]

@@marthamasdeo9833 Heyo! Hecho en!

[@benjaminbrewer2569]

He has mentioned avocados in North Carolina before saying we need to get our avocados from NC instead of Mexico because the cartels are taking over the avocado trade in Mexico. I’m looking forward to seeing avocado ranches next time i go to NC. It’s probably like the miles and miles of almonds in CA. (I wonder how they bred the frost tolerant trees.)

[@macewenart]

They don't eat many avocados in North Carolina... now you've heard it 😂!

[@bhavens9149]

would love to see a seminar or chat series featuring you and Eric Cline, I think his books ie "After 1177 A.D." and your books, such as "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" Have a lot in common.Change the years much remains the same, Anyway would be a fun series I think, maybe just a youtube chat series that follows geography, demographics, water, political alliances, etc. Just a suggestion.

[@GetOutsideYourself]

Great, all those Africans can just get air conditioning before their ski trip to Neom.

[@whothefoxcares]

BARRY SOETORO heard you say that!

[@YC-bk3fl]

lmao

[@edwinwilde555]

I love how your ability to see many wide trends and variables and gather that data to form a narrative, but climate change is a larger topic with more variables than you give it credit for. It is your weak point to talking about.

[@questforknowledge750]

I question the validity of our temperature data as up here in Canada our weather stations are at airports and in cities we all know these are heat sink areas.

[@Skippy-s1g]

TRUST THE SCIENCE!!!!!! THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!!!! FASCIST! RACIST!!!!

[@kirkwolak6735]

Yes. How do we sample less than 2% of the surface of the globe to claim global warming. Especially when the places we have been sampling have become cities faster than most other parts. I think Dr. Jordan Petersons take is appropriate. We are greener than ever. I would rather be heating up than facing an Ice Age!

[@jakeaurod]

I was taught that they were heat islands.

[@AnthonyJMendoza-f7i]

I haven't worked for Parks Canada, but I have worked for the National Park Service in the United States. All the parks in the US have weather data collecting sites that are monitored daily. I am sure the same is done in Canada. This is also true at Universities in the US, many of which are locational in small towns. I am sure the same is done in Canada. In other words, Canadians are not idiots. They have figured this out. I am sure.

[@questforknowledge750]

@@AnthonyJMendoza-f7i of course they are in the country side. The data I have seen is 89% are in heavily populated areas and 11% country side. When you average such uneven representation your data is shewed.

[@ruralhobo]

When it comes to wheat and climate change, I think the bigger issue is that heat inhibits flowering. But when it comes to food security, I'm still waiting for someone to speak of the northward shift of more productive C4 cereals and of ongoing research into transforming crops like rice and wheat from C3 to C4 photosynthesis.

[@dogcalledholden]

What about Australia's wheat?

[@cuckedandloaded894]

The wheat belt in WA is already pretty dry so i might just end up getting hotter and drier.

[@seanlander9321]

He dismisses it all the time as too variable in supply.

[@john1boggity56]

He doesn't like Aussies much. Our economy is one of the least sophisticated in the world and our housing market is a Ponzi scheme.

[@danamyrocket]

Globally, wheat production zones are moving poleward. For Australia, this moves their zone south into the ocean. 🌊

[@Ikkeligeglad]

Ukraine and Russia?

[@yoyoleafs2237]

great video! ... But... you missed something: Photosynthesis operates in a temperature band, if we exceed or dip below this temperature band, photosynthesis slows, then collapses. IT IS going to get too hot, we are going to exceed the temperature band for Wheat and other crops...yields will fall...

[@ruralhobo]

I'm a climate change alarmist but even I don't see temperatures exceed 50°C worldwide for extended periods of time.

[@tycurtin7565]

Every book from the 1970s about food... Population exploding, etc was wrong..... So is Peter

[@SolzhenitsynBoogie]

Peter definitely seems Malthusian.

[@saharzie]

Ah yes, the climate change denier. Fact: 70% of wildlife has disappeared since 1970. Fact: the ocean is acidifying at the fastest rate since the last great mass extinction. This is not up for debate, any more than the fact that cancer is real is up for debate.

[@chrisjackson1215]

My dude there's a difference between talking about "food" and talking about a climate shift. I would *love* to grow some fruit trees where I live but it ain't happening. Why? Because it's cold and wet. I'm not getting homegrown coconuts - and just like me not getting coconuts people who have a climate shift and can;t grow wheat anymore won't be *getting* wheat. It isn't rocket science.

[@oldkbellguy5156]

Maybe a rich former politician beachfront property index would be more accurate?

[@danamyrocket]

“The Limits to Growth” ca. 1970 was quite accurate. It examined 5 scenarios: resource limited, food limited, pollution limited, war limited, and technology limited. Well worth reading. Interestingly, solving one or more limitations can tend to bring others to the forefront. Fracking for gas and oil pushed that limit away, while increasing the rate at which atmospheric pollution (CO2) was created. Dwarfed wheat and rice pushed the food limit back, while speeding up consumption of fertilizer and accelerating deforestation. The one limit that wasn’t successfully avoided was pollution, specifically, CO2 emissions. Internal research at fossil fuel companies from the 50’s to the 80’s all predicted that CO2 emissions would be a significant problem in the 21st century. Even the fossil fuel industry couldn’t predict the surge in production since 2000, so net warming today exceeds even their predictions.

[@icarusfarmsWV]

If the price goes up there should be shifts to wheat from other crops in better zones…

[@normhagen1913]

So what I’m hearing is invest in wheat futures 🤣

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

I just did last week. Corn and soybeans too. There is no way US farmers can produce corn for $4 a bushel.

[@GK-wn6ur]

Yup, exactly what you would have 'heard' from Peter at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict and if you listened at the time you'd be destitute today.

[@geofflewis8599]

..but the beginning of industrialism, from about 1750, was within a period known as the 'Little Ice Age' - the Hudson and the Thames rivers froze solid in winter, ever winter, for centuries - so temperature comparisons with this period is pretty much a waste of time..

[@1wasavi]

the .2 degree increase is a confluence of many factors but in general, 2 things happened. we managed to clean up the air and the solar cycle is reaching its peak. Our air by being cleaner is actually allowing more energy to enter the planet and increasing the temperature. and the solar cycles peak energy emition is either next year or this year if im not mistaken after which it will throttle down the next 4

[@john1boggity56]

Let's see if you're right. I think of each years data as a scatter diagram with a regression line running through it.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

We have not cleaned up our air much. Per Earthnullschool.net, SO2 level is still very high over Eastern US, India and East China. These regions are not warming nearly as much in summer as low SO2 regions. Solar cycle has peaked but it only varies about .4 W M^2 and earth energy imbalance has been averaging around +1.3 W M^2 and anything >0 = a warming planet. Anyway, actually cleaning up the air would be a disaster for US corn belt. We used to get far more 100F days before the coal plants were built (around 1950’s).

[@OutHereOnTheFlats]

The solar cycle doesn't get nearly enough attention from alarmists.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

@@OutHereOnTheFlats The solar cycle does nothing. Solar output goes up .4 W M^2 then it goes down .4 W M^2. Averaged over decades it is totally flat.

[@ferebeefamily]

Thank you Peter for the video.

[@antoncarmoducchi6057]

The focus used to be on habitat loss. Now it's selling EVs and solar panels.

[@uditfonseka]

I remember when pollution was the main problem

[@chapter4travels]

Gotta feed the Climate Industrial Complex.

[@Skippy-s1g]

What ever makes more money.

[@jakeaurod]

@@chapter4travels If that was a real thing, the climate problems would have been solved already.

[@chapter4travels]

@@jakeaurod The last thing the CIC wants is a solution.

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

Yeah, it’s getting a lot hotter in regions that are NOT burning coal and therefore do not have a strong aerosol masking effect. US Midwest gets far fewer 100F days than pre coal burning days (around 1950). Per NASA climate reports, India is barely warming at all in the month of May, their hottest, driest month. High sulfate levels over India.

[@Skippy-s1g]

Or maybe,just maybe, they are lying about fucking everything and they always have to come up with new excuses. Hmmm?

[@k98killer]

Should make a video about Brazil becoming an authoritarian country at some point. Their own government officials are engaged in civil disobedience.

[@matthewmcclary7855]

He won't, not while his own party is running a campaign for president using their exact same policies.

[@k98killer]

@@matthewmcclary7855 Fair enough.

[@jasonneugebauer5310]

Doing most anything productive in most any country is an act of civil disobedience right now 😢 Just buy your consumer goods and work your nine too five OR ELSE. 🚔👮‍♂️😥☠️

[@BrettBaker-uk4te]

The climate change we've seen means winter wheat belt has been shifting north. And the places you've mentioned are arguably grossly overpopulated.

[@Bruce22027]

Right. Where l live, crop yields, including winter wheat, keeps getting better and better over the past decade.

[@Ikkeligeglad]

Maybe you don't know it but there is a world outside USA that is much much larger, it is possible to grow crops there too, hope you learned that in school, ah, maybe not, American education system, sorry forgot that, you don't learn much of what's outside US 😉

[@BrettBaker-uk4te]

​@Ikkeligeglad Well, it's been helping the Canadian, Ukrainian, and Russian competition.

[@circulareconomyfornutrient4832]

Thanks for sharing

[@joelrunyan1608]

There are other crops that are better than wheat. Like sorghum. And they're working on edible plants that can grow in salt water

[@badart3204]

Terrible for brewing and in general isn’t as tasty. It’s unlikely that comes into use unless starvation really sets in and even then millet and other grains may take hold instead

[@dennisclapp7527]

Thanks Peter

[@A1qwerty55]

So this genius thinks Avos grow well in Notth Carolina? Nice work😂😂😂

[@benchavis1624]

Pete, We cut back growing wheat decades ago. Corn is why we can continue farm. Could it be it was because of the better financial return on corn and nothing to do with climate change?

[@hairy-dairyman]

Probably not. It'll just change where we grow it. Prediction before watching video

[@Shadow-bk1im]

My prediction is also new gmo crops to replace the current stuff to better deal with hotter drier climates.

[@mycaryse7108]

I read an article just yesterday about how the wheat market is a mess right now due to China cancelling contracts for consumption of American wheat in favor of sourcing it elsewhere. Something crazy like a million tons contract cancelled. And that due to the new BRICS nation stuff going on- the US cannot see who received the orders instead. Basically he was saying the US is loosing its in-sight ability for futures markets since there are now large transactions taking place outside of the Us Dollar system!

[@uditfonseka]

As some body who has been to the Maldives twenty times. I can say clearly--THAT THE MALDIVES IS ACTUALLY RISING IF IT IS DOING ANYTHING

[@ivancho5854]

🤫

[@donkeysaurusrex7881]

Yes. This is something that is known but not necessarily understood. Some islands are growing while others are shrinking.

[@chapter4travels]

It's just part of the climate crisis hoax, so stfu and do and believe as you're told.

[@Skippy-s1g]

Which brings us to the point of our story: everything said to support "climate change" is a lie. Even tho name.

[@ChristopherMHeaps]

No

[@Padoinky]

What about areas of the USofA that up to now, weren’t deemed “optimal” for wheat production (I’m thinking about my home town area of central NY and essentially all of NYS, which is believe it or not, largely rural farmland, non-metro area countryside and protected state mega-parks/forests), as the areas that typical had a moderate spring-fall climate and a fairly long and snowy winter (back then typically 200” of snow from Nov-Mar), but now having, over the last 20 yrs, recorded yrly snowfall average drop to approx 100” of snow, along w/ far less sub-zero temp days, w/ a supposed offset of rainfall instead of snow - thus the regional climate is not so much drying out as it is tangibly warming and staying moist… my point being that w/ today’s sophisticated agricultural-science and analytics, surely those far smarter than I (university agri-science programs being paid by the govt and big agriculture), are already assessing this probable climatic transition and dreaming up ways to profit from it?

[@virgnthermostat5928]

I'm sure asphalt, concrete, and concretrated human populations contribute to a certain measurable impact, but doesn't the earth go through climate changes naturally?

[@gagamba9198]

Yes. The Little Ice Age ended in 1850, which coincidentally is the environmentalists' target year for the baseline temperature that determines how much warming has occurred. Basically this temp guarantees we'll never attain it, so it's forever climate emergency and all the knock-on regulations spawned from it.

[@bearbryant3495]

Sure it does, but why introduce even more uncertainty into the equation? Many of the natural disruptions in climate during Earth's long history were catastrophic, I'd advocate for removing one more factor of uncertainty. It's like saying if I fall off this cliff I'll die, so why don't I dance for a while.

[@bitbucketcynic]

For most of Earth's history, the planet was much warmer than it is today and there was considerably more CO2 (over 1500 ppm). With the exception of three major ice ages (2.3 billion, 600 million, and 240 million years ago) Earth's average temperature was in the 20-30°C range with no permanent ice. Grasses have only evolved in the last 20-30 million years as a consequence of CO2 levels falling to levels never before experienced. They can survive with much less CO2 while most plants die in less than 150 ppm. We have evolved during an anomalously cold epoch of time and now we're freaking out that things are going back to normal, not knowing or understanding what normal for Earth really is.

[@ivancho5854]

🤫

[@Alexadria205]

Yes, Earth's natural climate changes happen over thousands and millions of years. Humans are changing the climate just as much but over only a few hundred years. Species can't adapt that fast.

[@tonyprivat807]

Denmark had an amazing summer season for growing. Much more rain and almost 1.8 more output.

[@fifelee]

Peter said wheat would be crazy expensive now because of supply chain problems. He was dead wrong and screwed a lot of farmers. I don’t really believe anything he says anymore.

[@Bidenisafraud]

How did his words screw farmers?

[@SPAMMAN123456789]

No he wasn't. We had huge inflation for 2 years by a combination of supply issues from war as well as crazy spending from re-opening after covid. He also said likley the rich Western world would be fine. But a lot of developing countries wouldn't be. And beyond the wars, several developing nations are having major civil unrest. Some were on the brink of starving before the grain deal happened in ukraine

[@jameshorton3692]

He’s just a commentator. He has no power. He can’t screw anyone. You are very stupid.

[@charleswomack2166]

He is an analyst. We get things wrong sometimes, myself included.

[@drrtfm]

China recently cancelled a massive wheat order from the US. They've been buying from Russia and Brazil and not using US$ for the trades so the US was completely blindsided by this.

[@ChrisMichael-x8j]

If places that are hot and dry get hotter and drier how is the recent greening of the southern Sahara and the Gobi explained?

[@haileyr.s8107]

Weather patterns have been changing forever and there NOTHING you or I can do to change it. Let's just go back to living our lives and not fear the weather, we will adapt to whatever the temperature outside is.

[@biterwriter]

Nice to hear Peter address climate change, even if the numbers on it aren't "new." The whole globe warming up would be relevant for analyzing geopolitics but hey what do I know.

[@gruffelo6945]

this +1.2 is so misleading, here in Germany we are at +3-4 - it sucks badly

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

Europe’s biggest mistake was shutting down coal plants. You need the aerosol masking effect from sulfates to keep it cooler. That’s why eastern US hits so few summer record highs. India is adding massive numbers of coal plants and it’s paying off, monthly climate reports show very little warming for India in the month of May, their hottest driest month. Brazil is getting extremely hot, low SO2 levels.

[@noname-ll2vk]

I'd love to see you start a channel about your backpacking and hiking.

[@givemeabreak8784]

No way. Ireland is growing it now like never before. Some places will need irrigation and some places will be blessed. Simple as that.

[@seanlander9321]

@@givemeabreak8784 Irish wheat though is revolting, as it’s typically soft and therefore very low grade.

[@garyshan7239]

the issue is if the current bread baskets will lose rainfall. Consider in the US much of our bread basket is heavily irrigated and that water is running low so while we have plenty of land to raise crops just how much will the yields suffer if the acreage isn't watered as much in the future?

[@seanlander9321]

@@garyshan7239 New strains are being developed all the time and the Australians have always led the world in education of dry land cropping which has added enormously to the tonnages grown since WWII. Zion doesn’t seem to understand though, that wheat is graded, Australian Prime Hard is the standout grain, while much of the European stuff is mush for animal feed, which means that you can’t just talk about wheat as though it’s a single product.

[@MelkorTolkien]

The great plains are neither hot-dry nor cold-dry. Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma etc have seen a steady increase in rainfall over the last 30 years and the plains are known for their storms. Yeah, July-August can feel like a desert in these places but that's about it (save maybe January being cold and dry). Rest of the year sees steady rainfall.

[@raggedcritical]

It seems that "urban heat islands are skewing temperature measurements" is the latest denialist go-to. I'm not sure if I should count "the climate has changed before" because it's pretty evergreen and there are so many responses to it (graphs showing previous "changes" happening over geological time then our current change on the same time scale looking like a cliff face are my favorite) that anyone still persisting with it must have a deep emotional or monetary need to insist it's not happening regardless of the facts. If anyone without that desperate need is curious, no matter what nonsense they roll out there will be multiple debunkings. Skeptical Science has a relatively complete list of the falsehoods that are currently popular along with articles debunking them, and I'm sure there are others.

[@tycurtin7565]

It's propaganda on top of propaganda. You believe the "fact" checkers??? LOL. The temperature numbers are not even raw data..... Everything you see from GISS, NASA, etc is adjusted. Meaning the data is all fake, just like the warming.

[@john1boggity56]

Well said!!

[@nicolasgirard2808]

It's sad seeing all these people thinking they're so smart just because they can regurgitate a talking point they read online somewhere. I would rather trust experts with PhD's who devote their lives to studying the topic, even though (as the denialists love to say) experts are sometimes wrong. Because if you can't trust an expert then you can't trust anyone.