World Cup penalty kicks, tracked

[@augustofretes]

Fans don't say penalty shotouts are a coin flip because they think there's a 50-50 chance of scoring a goal... What they think is a coin flip is who wins the penalty shootout.

[@anonymous__________________]

which is why as an american, this just helps the stereotype that Americans know nothing about football (except me, c'mon city!)

[@tiny_toilet]

Yeah, don't know how that obvious point sailed over their head like a Panenka kick.

[@NachoMas]

Lol I didn't even get it when it was mentioned because of how well-known I thought this was.

[@Kunaaaaallll]

I didn't get it.. Can you elaborate?

[@Edunomat]

​@@Kunaaaaallll Majority of fans know that, in a penalty, it's more likely to goal than to miss. That's why football fans were angry when a player miss a penalty or provokes a fault in the area. But a penalty shootout is about who team makes more blunders and that's more random and fair. It's like in lottery is easier to fail than to win, but who wins is random. The goals in the penalty shootout not even counts for the statistics.

[@Valpo2004]

Actually P kicks are a little bit different now since FIFA instituted and started enforcing the rule that the keeper had to keep his feet on the goal line until the ball is struck. This has caused the save percentage of P kicks to go down. Professional keepers have said with the current rules a P kick should never be missed and are only missed because of blunders.

[@RealTaIk]

name me one professional keeper who said that

[@Valpo2004]

@@RealTaIk Ben foster has said it numerous times.

[@logiic8835]

@@Valpo2004 any1 else?

[@RealTaIk]

@@Valpo2004 if he said that numerous times then why can't I find literally anything about this?

[@crepperwlp]

Now? That rule is older than me.

[@diogodavid3557]

"Ultimately, the penalty kick is a head game. Which brings us back to Zidane" I see what you did there

[@fede1324ee]

The thing is, putting it on the corner is obiously the best option, but also the hardest to pull off. Some kickers would rather play it safer by kiking it to the Center or just guess the side and hit it safely

[@greennature3647]

but if they are supposed to be the best players in the world and paid a lot of money to do it. maybe putting it in the corner shouldnt be a difficult thing for them to do.

[@fede1324ee]

@@greennature3647 it is when your whole country is watching and pending on you. Imagine the preassure, no amount of practice or money can makes nerves go away completly

[@tomate397]

exactly, it's such an obvious assumption I'm surprised they don't mention it in the video

[@carlosarboleda8993]

@@greennature3647a lot of professional players are terrible penalty kickers. Therefore I’m not really surprised to se the majority of players playing it safe by using a low kick to the corner. The thing is, that kind of kick is easier to pull off with a lot more force

[@b__c7538]

@@greennature3647 Sure, but that doesn’t change the fact that it still is

[@michelepinato1158]

After Zidane's "greatest penalty of all times" France proceeded to lose the World Cup in a penalty shootout

[@simon-y2b]

Without Zidane

[@ViniciusSC10]

And they lost because Trezeguet tried to shoot high and hit the post, as Zidane did.

[@yudhibarchi9056]

Poi neanche è sto gran cucchiaio quello

[@GamerBoyMAS]

again

[@caliboy09]

And they did again in 2022

[@superpantman]

Having been part of penalty shootouts, top corner is the riskiest, seeing that you need to control elevation and the width of your shot. They pay off because if you strike a good shot top corner, even if the keeper dives correctly they probably won't save it. Keepers generally don't dive expecting a top corner shot.

[@OdioEmVideo]

@The Guy who said to high and you miss the goal, to low and is just about the height the keeper usually dives

[@Xergecuz]

This has been studied before, the best spots are the corners, as if the velocity of the ball is correct the ball will reach its destination before the goalkeeper, even if the goalkeeper jumps in the correct direction. Then there was Garcia Aspe, always shot the ball in the same spot, but the kick was so hard the ball would always get in as the goalkeeper would have no time to react.

[@GTAVictor9128]

There's also Lewandowski, who developed an unsaveable penalty technique where he stutters and quickly looks back up to see which direction the keeper is preparing to dive, then goes for the opposite direction to the one the keeper is preparing. For whatever reason, he recently decided to change his penalty technique and had his last 2 penalty shots saved. Yeah, let's not talk about that...

[@Nippleless_Cage]

@@GTAVictor9128 I don't think Lewandowski invented the keeper-dependent technique...Neymar does it too, and so do hundreds of other players.

[@cek0792]

@@GTAVictor9128 sometimes you suddenly can't do things because of pressure

[@chbrosz]

Can't believe you guys didn't touch on this. Sure, top-right corner is 88% effective WHEN THE BALL IS ON TARGET, but it's a SUPER RISKY shot, and the kicker will be prone to miss either high or wide. The real stat should be effectiveness (goals) from EFFORTS at top-right corner, which will either be goal, stopped by goalie, or miss high or wide. The stat will be much lower. This is why shooters go for lower left and lower right - they are MUCH EASIER to hit accurately, as you won't miss high (or low due to ground) and need only to worry about missing wide.

[@ryancaton6741]

To be fair, it would be impossible to determine from observation where the kicker MEANT to kick it

[@t33nyplaysp0p]

Vox is known for nuance and not packaging in eye catching material into a 5 minute video.....🧐

[@cherch4625]

@@ryancaton6741 with highly skilled athletes like those in the world cup you could make an assumption about where they are trying to go

[@warmike]

It is exactly what you said should be. It's 88% effective in general. Kicks missing the goal completely are included in the statistics.

[@SueMyChin]

Would have loved to see success percentage for each 9 zone providing the shot was on target. I suspect the top 3 zones would be near 100% success rate.

[@Valpo2004]

Idk about the top center zone because it's easy enough to save if the keeper stays home and the Paneka kicks could even be considered top central when they cross the line. However the top corner shots are nearly impossible to save if they are on target. Problem of course is a lot of players miss while trying to aim there.

[@SueMyChin]

@@Valpo2004 ...but the keeper only stays "central" 13% of the time and I suspect that the majority of the time they aren't standing up when they do. So hitting the target high and central is going to be upwards of 90%, if you hit the target high, central and hard I bet you're looking at something like 95%. An easy way to prove this is simply to try and find a penalty save from a keeper when the ball goes high down the middle. They just don't exist. The problem is hitting the target and that if you do this a few times, you'll become predictable...

[@mannynd]

Yes they would be Unless that zone accounts for shots blown over or ones that hit the post & go out in the zone. Then it would probably be like 40% lol

[@SueMyChin]

@@mannynd that is what is shown in the video. I'm talking about percentage for shots on target only

[@MatejaMaric]

Isn’t that what they’re showing at 3:08?

[@tonymarik1649]

As a Czech Im proud you mentioned Panenka in your video, he is a legend here.

[@the-sands-of-time]

5:02 When you don't want to start an argument over which sport "football" refers to

[@rorrt]

I think the percentage only tells part of the story. The top right players rarely go for because it's an easy shot to misjudge for a right footer, missing the goal or that area all together. Perhaps if it was a sample size of a fixed number for all areas, that might give a fairer picture.

[@Rene00Thomsen]

For a better understanding of the placement of the shots, I also think they should have separated which foot the shot came from. I would suggest that left footed players tent to place the ball in the right side and vise versa. - And as there are more right footed players in general in football it would impact the result substantially.

[@zacharyelmslie1620]

​@@Rene00Thomsen The tendencies are actually the other way around. Players have a tendency to avoid shooting cross body. The idea behind this is the player making the shot more like a hard pass to the bottom corner. This results in a higher likelihood of right-footed shooter shooting right and vice versa.

[@Guiggs17]

This, the research was done right, but the conclusion don't. Right footers are way more common than left footers with probably explain why the most popular zone is also the easiest. Everybody who plays often knows that, so goal keepers tend to jump more to the lower left corner. At the same time, is way harder for a right footer to hit the right top corner, thus a riskier move. I think the video approach of the subject was like if humans had a precision aim with the foot, like if we could always hit exactly where we want

[@redsmurf3308]

"That game with oblong brown ball" 😂 you earned my respect 👍

[@JonMartinYXD]

Handegg.

[@redsmurf3308]

@@JonMartinYXD 🤣💀

[@michaelflaherty3202]

The title of this video was changed. It used to be "how to aim a penalty kick" and now it's "world cup penalty kicks, tracked."

[@_blakep]

Vox turning into a Fifa youtuber now😭

[@19MAD95]

Content is king

[@dimaz1983]

just following World Cup fever I guess

[@sphakamisozondi]

There are 5 billion users on average watching the World Cup. Take advantage of the viewers at this time for content

[@pourdamghani]

Hi, I mentioned this in your recent short, and I wanted to mention it here, because I think it is worth to look at: Consider which goal was chosed, i.e. if winning or loosing depends on if the fans behind the goal was from the same team or not, I suspect this would have a huge effect. Since 2016 it was determined by a coin toss, and I think that single coin toss can determine result of the game.

[@monsieur1936]

One of the greatest penalty kicks by one of the greatest player against one of the greatest goalkeepers in a WC final. What a match

[@2002horton]

Expected a lot better from you guys. No mention of variation by footedness or a graph showing %s based on the ball actually being on target... also no one says its a 50/50 whether the ball goes in, they say that about who wins the shootout. Really poorly done but I have come to expect it.

[@justinoverberg6865]

İn addition to being one of the best penalties ever taken, it was also one of the most unjust penalties ever given. The dive that caused the penalty was actually incredible.

[@LaBibliaDelFurgol]

I am here to tell you why this is the worst penalty (Zidane vs Italy ~ Germany 2006) kick in the history of the world cups. First at all, the context: This is the final match of the FIFA world cup final, the winner will be crown champion and their players will make history. The stakes are very high, the tension, the pressure, the fear, well you get where I am going. Then you have there Zidane, one of the greatest players of all time about to execute the penalty. The execution is quite correct, better than average, but not the best. Never the best. That penalty kick didn't hit the net, and I can assure you 100% that if that penalty kick would have hit the net Zidane would have never given that headbutt to Materazzi and France would have been the Champions. But why? Why was it so important for that ball to hit the net. Well, to have an energetic celebration, discharge all the pressure, send a message to your team, and send a message to the rival team. Instead, that penalty hit the post and barely crossed the line, creating a confusing celebration that created more tension than the one being released. Even the goalkeeper takes the ball from outside the line. Yes, it was a goal but a pyrrhic one. And the mood of the match remained as if the score was still 0-0.

[@Manuel0209]

Thanks Vox! I have a penalty kick tomorrow morning and haven’t had the time to study!

[@Nippleless_Cage]

Is that you Cristiano?

[@Richs_reef]

5:03 is an under appreciated moment in this video for me as someone from the 🇬🇧

[@MS9X]

"That game with the oblong brown ball"😂😂

[@Intersaurus]

not just the red card and goal for zidane but also a legendary goalkeeper save by gianluigi buffon one of the best goalies

[@sophiacho5149]

i would have loved to see more of this topic. it seems you guys did a lot of data collection and research, but i feel like what you presented was quite limited.

[@salmanahjum-mathee9055]

that penalty was pure genius. didn't even touch the net

[@errhka]

No striker intends to hit the cross bar like that. He wanted to put it upper net because he thought the goalkeeper would dive first. Had he placed it any higher he would have missed it completely and no striker should intentionally risk those odds - it was a mistake that is somehow hailed as intentional.

[@thehamzayaseen]

Came here after the Argentina Vs Croatia Semifinal and Messi just scored a penalty in the top right corner! 🇦🇷 Majestic! 👑

[@samago20]

You should check Uruguay vs Ghana at South Africa 2010. The last penalty was shot by Sebastian "Loco" Abreu. Many times before he did the same panenka style shot and he repeated once again.

[@Snutchi]

You guys should see Postiga penalty against England in the Euro 2004. The Panenka emotional effect within the teammates who are going to shoot a penalty next is still underlooked. That penalty gave Portugal the win.

[@tomate397]

Very few players dare to target the right/left top corners, 'cause the risk to send it on the bar, up or out is much higher and they also have to send it high enough to avoid goalkeepers to reach the ball (the middle hights are the easiest ones to cover for a Gk) . it's basically the difference between derossi's goal and trezeguet miss in 2006 wc final: both nearly perfect, just with a 5/6 cms difference. so it's not enough to say ''players should consider top corners more'', cause it implies you're good enough to put it there, which considering the amount of pressure they have in those situations, it's never an easy choice.

[@freedomforu9884]

I wish Japan would have watched this before todays game

[@iMassimod]

OMG YES. I don't get why 3 guys all kicked low and to the left. Aim for the top corners!!

[@gavaudan2131]

@@iMassimod Top is scary because you can miss much easier

[@agustindetlefsen6944]

Good to see Vox introducing US citizens to this sport that most don’t care about. Penalties tend to be more psychological than statistical, i recommend watching Messi’s last penalty and how he waits for the keeper to dive before he decides to shoot (knowing he was less experienced than him).

[@LuukvdHoogen]

Often it's the easy-ness is what makes it so epic. A top player cannot miss, the whole nation is watching.. a few seconds from now you will be either the national hero, or the one person that ruined it for everybody. The mind games that are going on between the keeper and player.. the little rituals that lots of fans have to cope with the tension. Although it's not the most elegant way to decide a match it certainly drives up the emotions.

[@EriktionEBW]

As a casual viewer I was always secretly hoping the match would end this way.

[@gaurav16cool]

There are more right footed kickers than left. And it is easier to hit a fast shot by wrapping your foot around the ball and aim to the left than opening up your foot and aim to the right. And the higher you kick, the harder it is to control. So that’s why bottom left is the most popular. Because finally if you hit the ball fast enough away from the centre, you have a better chance of the ball going in than aiming for the top right. The reason why save percentages for top right are lower is because only the best players ever attempt those

[@morraras]

I can believe that 2010 WC PK Loco Abreu vs Ghana didn’t make it to this video.

[@eleazargeorgeanakterry2339]

someone should share this to Lewandokski from Poland

[@recnepse7498]

Or Davies from Canada

[@errhka]

Ochoa is a fantastic gk that can reach lower corners of the net without having to guess first. Lewandokski just needed to hit it faster and he still would have made it (see Gareth bale's pk against the American keeper)

[@Thebreakdownshow1]

They were literally butting heads that year.

[@BaSsGaZ]

I wholeheartedly disagree with the coin flip analogy, penalty shootouts factory in the skill of the players, the keeper, controlling mental pressure and so on. You can't say a Penalty shootout between Brazil and say Comoros have a 50% going for Comoros.

[@juandelpinto]

Totti 2000, Zidane 2006 and Pirlo 2012 Those are the best spoons i can remember of

[@antareepgogoi6065]

“The goalkeeper”? THE “GOALKEEPER”??? That’s Gigi Buffon. At least say his name!

[@TommasoPuccioni]

I don’t know if it was the greatest penalty kick of all time the one from Zidane but I know for sure that it was a night to remember for us Italians. I remember like it was yesterday the final of the World Cup 2006 😎

[@paulfeu]

And us French still hate Materazzi for it

[@ClearLakeCommunityWatch]

It was a terrible penalty kick, he was lucky it went in. One or two inches higher and it would've bounced back without scoring. Forza Italiaaaa

[@TommasoPuccioni]

@@paulfeu c'mon man in every football game players say bad words to each other if your captain during a World Cup Final could not remain calm for an insult at his sister it is only his fault ;)

[@TommasoPuccioni]

@@ClearLakeCommunityWatch I agree with you but in this video they are sayind that it was the best one. from my point of view it was a risky shot that could have easily bounced back, better to shoot like Grosso ;)

[@NicoJTX]

@@TommasoPuccioni If zidane remained calm we would have win

[@lawbinson]

No world cup final should ever end in Penalty Kicks

[@kyawzin]

Oddly enough, 2022 world cup ended with a penalty kick.

[@godowskygodowsky1155]

4:00 I'm sure the expert gave a reasonable, though simplified, explanation of the difference between frequentists and Bayesians, but the reporter botched it on this one. Please get these things reviewed. This is not the first time Vox has misinterpreted a technical explanation. 5:15 We have a mathematical framework that explains why it's sometimes good to take a "worse" option. It's called the mixed strategy equilibrium.

[@vz3_]

Secret Base Rewinder vibes. Here for it.

[@johnchessant3012]

There's also the game theory approach which would say that if it becomes common knowledge that the right side is undervalued, then after a while the odds would even out.

[@DreamersMMA]

Enjoyed this video more than I thought I would

[@littlejimmy5060]

So good to see czechoslovakia as a slovak. I rarely see at least a part of my country on the internet.

[@hughgray158]

Also got to consider at the top level keepers study thier oppositions penalty history so sometimes the best bet is to just switch it up every time

[@luisneisblaschke]

Thank you very much, Roberto Baggio. 🥳🏆🇧🇷

[@michaelstarnino479]

Ironically, Aidan’s missed the penalty shootouts because of that headbutt and his replacement missed his shot to give Italy the cup

[@anandsharma7430]

Why isn't anybody talking about how goalies are trained to guess the direction of the kick looking at the foot of the kicker? It's very important in today's day when a goalie can watch all the foot+kick of any particular opposing player before the game, by viewing videos of games played and penalty kicks taken to anticipate what the kick would be when the foot looks directed a particular way. Players can be pretty predictable that way.

[@krishnawidardjo5777]

I'm sending this video to Lewandowski

[@nachrj]

Something that I didn’t see taken into account is the fact that shooting the ball to the top right is by far the hardest place to shoot for a right footed player, so the % of misses is much higher if you take into account chances that missed the goal

[@AwesomeBoysJPTV]

Just like what Supa Strikas have taught me. When they need to beat the greatest goalkeeper of all time, they figured out that the right or left corner is the best option

[@G-B-F123]

Thanks VOX, I will try out the advice in the next FIFA World Cup (2026) ☺👍

[@aPictureElement]

"... that game with the oblong brown ball"

[@BigDaddyCola]

Oh man those soccer figurines pretty back memories from my youth! What are they from? My older brother had some and never had a clue what they came from.

[@Big007Boss]

Best midfielder of all time vs the best goal keeper of all time, I remember it like it was yesterday, genius football.

[@SoLazy100]

Both debatable. And Buffon wasn't good at saving penalties.

[@hereiseminem]

The game with the oblong brown ball. That's what the official name should be.

[@mikaleykaruna3930]

One statistic I would have liked to see explored more is footedness and where the ball is likely to be shot given a players footedness and also its effect, if any, on which way a keeper is likely to dive. Two new breakdowns of the goal rate of each zone by footedness would be fascinating

[@George-li1yv]

Right footed players more likely to hit it left. Left footed more likely to hit it right.

[@mikaleykaruna3930]

@@George-li1yv that is my suspicion as well, it would just be interesting to see it reflected in the data and the implications discussed

[@qasim2307]

love this video as a data analyst

[@Jabberstax]

I will never forget Di Maggio shooting straight over the crossbar at the USA '94 World Cup.

[@andreluiscarneiro4439]

and then there is Neymar who just gently pushes the ball into the net as he waits for the GK to fall to one side

[@eduardpeeterlemming]

All these football related videos are great

[@alexcoaym]

Old enough to remember when vox made videos more than once a week.

[@cactusdlo8774]

Helps decide a game in the event of a tie only on an elimination game not any game.

[@Big007Boss]

Who calls them " PKs " ?!! MERIKA

[@ChristianCaurla]

I think he got just lucky with that penalty.

[@keremmorgul367]

No way Zidane’s penalty kick was the greatest of all times. He hit the post and was lucky that the ball fell inside the goal line. Having said that, he was a football genius and one of the few brave souls who would try a Panenka kick in the world cup final.

[@stefan4159]

That's exactly what makes it the greatest of all time though. But objectively he was probably going for what Benzema did against Man City, a high chip. He just kicked it a bit harder than intended probably due to adrenaline.

[@BariumCobaltNitrog3n]

Materazzi on the headbutt: “After the third clash, I frowned and he retorted: 'I'll give you my shirt later'. I replied that I'd rather have his sister than his shirt.

[@pierre9831]

The main reason Zidane shot a Panenka is because him and Buffon (the goalkeeper) were teammates at Juventus for 5 years. Buffon knew that Zidane would usually aim at the low left bottom corner and that's where he dove. Zidane only knew too well to aim elsewhere.

[@Vinksen]

2006 is the best world cup for France, the best goals, the best games, even if we loose it. Zidane at his top level 4 games in a row, against the best teams.

[@jorj1758]

It’s just a penalty, not a penalty kick

[@SkyIon]

This video only further reinforces the stereotype that Americans don't know anything about football. If you're going to make a video about football you need to be familiar with the game. You cannot just read articles and research papers about this. The true answer can only be found by watching the game yourself

[@JustJulyo]

Don't know why they chose Zidane to highlight a PT kick out of ALL players in the world in the last 20 years

[@agent0422]

Vox has done the impossible, making football interesting. Great video.

[@lucas182512]

Kinda disappointed. After mentioning keepers guessing a side, I was hoping to see data on keepers who waited.

[@mr.prabhatshahi3608]

One thing that i find bizarre is , Why not keeper just stand still and watch the ball where going and dive , yes they cannot react quick to that power & speed , but when -penalty taker runs slow ,,OR taking penalty like jorginho or neymar do.

[@lfcfacupglory3111]

And how do they know if they are going to kick it fast or slow, even sometimes probably twice in a blue moon jorginho and neymar hit it hard.

[@stevenvogel5049]

How do I get this dataset? Would LOVE to play around with it.

[@Court_Flow]

I like how Fox focuses on content instead of minutes...

[@caec339]

I do think the statistics are super interesting but I think there’s so much to a penalty kick outside of numbers. Like you said at the end it’s a massive mind game between player and keeper, the atmosphere of the stadium, the way the match was up to the penalty kicks, experience and age of players. Also I feel goalkeepers don’t get enough credit as there is a method to predicting shots, a lot is statistics but even on the day a lot get saved by last minute clever decisions from keepers. It’s what makes a panenka so risky look at Agueros failed one, it happened because the keeper realised in time and was able to stop themselves fully diving to come back and catch the floating ball. While I do think there is so much down to statistics there is also a level of human chaos that has to can’t be accounted for.

[@nmrubeck]

another goal for phil edwards🎉⚽️

[@marshalniel]

Jens Lehman in World Cup 2006: Let me see my note first

[@helas33]

this felt like half of a video tbh and would've been nice if it was someone who knew a bit more about football

[@fmac6441]

3:18, just an example, okay. But you can't show the mistake that gave Brazil its first cup in 24 years and made it fall farther away from Italy and Germany in the number of titles without acknowledging these facts. This is not a missed penalty, this is the most important missed penalty in history.

[@DigitalGrains]

its funny how americans explain the worlds most famous sport and its most basic thing by taking references of sport that nobody cares about except them and a few countries

[@I.____.....__...__]

- 4:42 That makes no sense, why does the keeper DIVE to stop a ball from going in at the TOP? He'd still have slid under the ball even if it went to the top. 🤨 - 0:20 People _rewarding_ people for doing BAD things. 🤦

[@auliarifaldi1939]

Yeah, it is NOT a coin flip, it is really intended the kicker to score, hence it's called PENALTY. People forget that penalty kick is a PENALTY for team that fouled near their own goal. So, if it should be 50:50 chance, it's unfair for the team that have been fouled

[@BestlifeNomad]

I'm sure the keepers dominant hand has tons to do to it. If he's left handed, go opposite sides

[@jorgemadrid645]

Alright now let’s show this to Lewandowski

[@peoplechoice5087]

Ini sama halnya ketika saya memainkan acara tendangan pinalti di game top eleven, saya mencatat bahwa para pemain memilih tendangan kanan terlebih dahulu jika pemain tersebut memiliki nama akun orang Asia- amerika sedangkan 50-50 untuk pemain yang berasal dari eropa. Sedangkan tendangan ke tengah hanya dilakukan oleh gol penentuan atau orang yang juga mencatat kebiasaan para lawan sebelumnya.

[@c.l.visions2581]

England players - WRITE THAT DOWN WRITE THAT DOWN

[@porkbanhmi]

The best spot is aimed straight at the crown jewels 🤣

[@valp618]

This video feels incomplete. It needs a finish, a conclusion

[@ariobintangnugraha1916]

Why isn’t the data scientist record the keeper handedness… and preferred foot as well?

[@babbna]

lost me when you said penalty shootouts are used when its a tie

[@aliancemd]

That 88% probably has to do more with the fact that most shoot with the right foot and it’s an easier shot when you have to run to the ball(usually from the left, to use the right foot).

[@mcnchiz2621]

I think you forget that math dont shoot a PK, people with a favourite foot do. That means its a lot easier for a right foot player (wich most players are) to kick the ball hard and with accuracy on the left side, without revealing their intended target.

[@faiqalishah1713]

I had to see Zidane's genuis penalty sorry vox