Yikes: The Fed on 1995's Soft Landing vs Today [Hint: It's Bad.]

[@alanmulder7799]

Thanks for the update on the Fed soft landing comparison! Great work on seeing the the differences from the mid 95’s to today’s volatility.

[@jameschen2872]

Amazon also doing quiet layoffs with their new in office policy starting 2025

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

I’m surprised how many people are picking up on this.

[@dreamofstuff9125]

Not sure how they are hiding this stuff, but no one is buying manufactured goods now. Everything is deep discount and sitting on store shelves. manufacturing is in trouble and dealing with mass layoffs.

[@jjm00811]

we are 3x the market cap to GDP now as we were in 1995. overvalued. can take months to turn around but eventually it will.

[@mattengels9402]

Most people with money buy big houses and boats. Kevin buys plastic guns and a custom 007 Dad jacket. Love it 😂

[@AaronGrosch29]

I think he has a big house, a plane AND the Jacket. But someone's gotta keep this economy afloat. Keep it up Kevin, we appreciate it 😂

[@labandonaldhock80]

@@AaronGrosch29 buy Tesla!!!!

[@Master_Failure]

I don't need this reminder. I lived through the 2007 hell.

[@NomadDad]

Maybe I'm wrong but I feel you're being too bearish right now Kev. There are definitely these warning signs but in the meantime there's good upside money to be made too

[@capincrunch1184]

Oversupply of new vehicles should be concerning

[@robinpowell5408]

Mass layoffs are coming I would imagine.

[@nationsnumber1chump]

Aye! Vehicles yes. Commodities possibly not 😂 strike strike strike!

[@Rayvisin]

Layoffs been happening. My job has been doing quiet layoffs as well. Over 10 percent

[@mkumar0101]

Meet Kevin is trying to do a Bill Ackman.

[@frankderio5757]

I love listening to bear porn because you can be completely right and still lose money. Unless you’re Nostradamus nobody knows. All the statistics and charts sounds good though!

[@mickeybeavison1053]

Taking a huge dump and enjoying a meet Kevin video!

[@miken5261]

Enjoy

[@the7figureteam]

AWESOME! Thanks Kevin, for your Extensive research and sharing!

[@Gabriel-mc9eo]

Come on Kevin, the Fed's cut 50 base point for election in favor to one candidate...

[@HardieLeCoq]

Wow, this is exactly what I had in mind. I feel like stocks could go either way right now, so betting on bond yields going down seems safer to me. I like TLT for these reasons.

[@JENAPALMER1]

We have not won on inflation. That is a joke. The real economy is horrible. Stocks dont reflect how the average American is suffering out here. The numbers are manipulated.

[@hustlesmart1235]

Absolutely

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

I just can’t shake that something bad is going to go down in the markets soon. There are plenty of charts and data backing it up, but I feel like it’s going to be bad. Like 50% losses bad. I hope I’m wrong. Nothing shows us losing 50%. Maybe 20% at worst, but I just can’t shake that feeling.

[@matthevandaalen6289]

Fear. Good

[@peterquin1443]

Layoffs are already underway. Per Challenger job cuts, August was the highest month of layoff announcements since August 2009!

[@aaa5diamond]

Thank you! I feel like I've been arguing an entire circus of people saying its 1995 all over again. You just can't help stupid, so great job setting out the facts!

[@stevengalske7130]

You know everything when you think you know nothing

[@Carlos-im3hn]

Amazon and California have increased wages recently...so there could be wage inflation now in September 2024.

[@rmviv4rmviv443]

i encourage you all to create a physical book library not only on knowledge to learn but to safeguard knowledge and the preservation of history books at least get one book at a time thats 6000 years of knowledge and history at your finger tips you can also buy and preserve roman swords templars shields etc even be a recorder of history write in a diary history that day or take pictures and label the date names location weather etc record and perserve and record anything from your salary your migrations to perserving cookware and collection sets of coins from around the world or anything else and you prob could sell to historians

[@JayZ-to6up]

The fed needed to do what Paul Volcker did to correct the market. Jerome Fowl went the other way, let's see how that's going to work out.

[@redwoodpark1038]

@meetkevin If you haven't already you should talk about how this revision by the bureau of Labor statistics is the largest it has ever been and with the exception to time frames around COVID, The other big revisions were during the great recession and around 2000-2001

[@ajinkyarajguru431]

Can you address how commercial/residential real estate compared to this trend over each recession? Was the 2008 GFC unique in the housing market as the cause or was it just one of the dominoes that got most headlines ?

[@jamesd5356]

Thank you for your videos, they're gold

[@matthewsemenuk8953]

A soft landing is like a Dude Perfect trick shot, first try.

[@wormhole-r3l]

I wish we could go back to the 90s

[@ingenieroivan1]

Great analysis Kevin, thank you.

[@ponpokofamily]

`Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & Over` in FRED works very well as well to predict the start of recession.

[@ethair8975]

A giant game of chicken is happening right now.

[@rami4791]

So are we crashing or not?

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

Blow off top more likely than a crash at the moment in my opinion.

[@alexlopez5800]

Yes, in the next couple months

[@sean2549]

2025 crash after election.

[@Ray12121]

Most likely we are based on the overall warning signs. But past results don't guarantee future performance as they say. Crashes take about a year or two to fully materialize if you go look at the smp 500 from late 2007 to 2009. So for us it's in slow motion but when people look back in the future, it looks like a blink of an eye.

[@UltimateStaredown]

Like TLT, VCLT bets on lower yields (and has higher dividend while you wait) Pros? Cons?

[@Elcuale]

Hi Kevin, Gundlach the bond king, recently said he expects the 10 year yield to keep rising even in a recession because to deficit and issuance of bonds due to this. It wont work as in the past. Was wondering your thoughts on this

[@ScottRachelson777]

Gundlach is very smart!

[@IIKings22]

Ok I’m buying SPY puts for next year some time 👍🏻

[@matthewsemenuk8953]

A lot of money gonna change hands in the next year or two. Careful with your leverages. A lot of good trades to be made, and a lot to be lost.

[@cszafarczyk63]

You and Tom Lee should do an interview

[@robinpowell5408]

What about the businesses shutting down but you don't hear about ?

[@istvanpraha]

True. MY job is going to shut down next year. Smaller company. Most employees haven't picked up the sign. I know they're shopping the business around but no one's made an offer yet because companies that would have bought us are not doing well either! Great economy!

[@dengedmond435]

I like this English channel very much.

[@marekpazo]

When you say bond yields have to come down. Are you talking about short-term or long-term? Because who in their right mind would be buying 30 year at 4%?... Knowing that the only way the government can pay off the debt is by inflation. Let me know your thoughts.

[@hammo974]

This year shouldn’t cut rates but we gonna get 100bp cut, so it will be worth seeing at the end of this year and next first half of the year😂😂

[@FUD-o8u]

Depression.

[@DJRS2178]

Delfationary bust ahead - David Hunter

[@harutyung3767]

Tricky thing though, in the past, (08) unemployment was far reaching. It hit the blue and white collard jobs. I think the white collar jobs are currently taking the hit

[@frankderio5757]

Lol Bears sound smart Bulls make money.

[@mattbailey112]

Hit the nail on the head, when you said ai was getting jobs… the economy doesn’t need workers anymore. This is just getting started.

[@vhol93]

great video !

[@Dan-yw7sy]

Great vid!

[@DxWangZ]

Easy. Just declare a recession back in JAN-2022 to SEP-2023, similar to 1990 recession.

[@damientolbert1791]

Do You think the Missile Strikes are going to effect the market tomorrow?

[@peterquin1443]

If the FED drives rates down more than expected, then the dollar tanks and inflation rages again. We are an economy based on imports.

[@Jeffhuebner]

Vest rocks!

[@andrewpillinger6888]

All about earnings..if q3 are good nothing else matters

[@SuMMeRFLi5]

Well, Hello Gorgeous! In the 90's remember, we were highly optimistic and more hopeful world relations would increase as we saw the collapse of Soviet regime in 91 and 97 the agreement was made for China to take the reigns of Hong Kong. Hopeium was alive, but some pain and backhanded deals that seriously impacted optimism. Now? Obviously you've tuned into market fear. My hope is for better relations - it's always been that way. Anyway, I apologize for miscommunicating. And ... I'm sorry. Know that you're more than just a finance guru (so so much more). We're also here for YOU! We love hearing about the family, beautiful Lauren, how Jack's coming along w/ the nursery, the kids and your other interests too. You may never see this, but I love you. ❤🤍💙🫂

[@funesyfunes]

Hey Kevin.. whats your thoughts on the 3x volume on stocks last friday?

[@istvanpraha]

Wasn't Friday a regular options closing day ? I know people say options expiration "doesn't matter," Well it "doesn't matter" in terms of price long term, but there are indeed spikes in volume (many at 3:55). Where did you see 3X though?

[@philyogaeveryday321]

Dark Elves scrying the long bonds are saying a soft landing.

[@MVPTC]

TMF to 100+

[@markcarrillo2416]

No recession Bitcoin to Mars with Elon and Trump. $200K base case. $450K BTC Bull case 2025-2026

[@PTRCKAhrens]

Calls on TLT or TMF

[@juneabe2076]

I belive recession had started beginning of 2024 actually.

[@hardyk2010]

007 DAD.. no investment advice about treasury bonds?

[@hadoopsd]

Quoting Times of India 😂. As an Indian American I can safely say DONT BELIEVE THE CRAP

[@istvanpraha]

To be fair, I've been researching why some stocks are going up for "no reason" and the only link is sometimes to Indian website. American media is so ridiculously bullish right now that they're just ignoring most reality.

[@NavajoNaation]

757

[@NichoD3]

LOL Kevin didnt need to add [Hint: It's Bad.] in his title. I assumed it was going to be bad from your previous month of video titles.

[@bolognatony8739]

Kevin, follow up with a video based on financials of the banksters. The momey control tells another story.

[@SoundFriendly]

please put a low-cut filter at 90hz. Your voice is quite "boomy".

[@eyelovecolorado2195]

Dear Kevin, we rely on you to clear our confusion not add to it! 😂

[@WeBeatMedicare6969]

Pretty sure that wasn’t a thing…it was the 20’s…but the 90’s had a nice run lol

[@TheSuperkkt]

Flippity floppity

[@matthevandaalen6289]

Freaking flipflopping all the time. 😂

[@jonathanblanco3433]

This dude is a perma bear😂

[@miken5261]

That is factually untrue. Be careful kimosabi.

[@SwaggerjackProductions]

Kevin, could you please cover the potential East Coast and Gulf ports International Longshoremen's Union strike (that would occur October 1st if negotiations fail)? The automation of jobs seems to be a main point of contention. Biden has said that he wouldn't intervene. (45,000 union workers are involved.) This could be a major market mover and isn't getting enough attention. (The two sides aren't even openly negotiating at this point..) Keep up the good work bruddah ^^

[@SlotHits777]

there is no update, just attempts to paint a narrative to fuel positioning .. not exactly best way to gain audience faith. Anyone can cherry pick to support their bias bs

[@magthepoboy]

If you call this cherry picking, then he definitely has a bunch of them. The crazy thing is there are more cherries he coudle've grabbed to further support his thesis.

[@istvanpraha]

I mean, call out cherry picking, but the MSM is so freaking ridiculously bullish that traditional economic sites are basically tabloids, at least the past few years. If you watch the Fed speeches or listen to earnings calls, or scan the BLS report, it's all way more bearish than is reported.Mainstream outlets have just been pushing out bullish sentiment and upgrading stocks for next to no reason. If you want a headache, read why LOW was upgraded today. A word salad as bad as Kamala Harris talking about school buses

[@Jfromes1]

For the record: Meet Kevin has a huge trustfund from his dad that he lives off from. He isn't self made and his investment advice is terrible

[@istvanpraha]

I mean, could be true but most of us "know" him as a real estate flipper who perhaps got lucky during a bubble. Also if you watch the video, his opinions have zero to do with the content

[@wayne0320]

Bullish.

[@taylorpilato7896]

Kevin are you saying it's tmf time

[@jerrycolello8191]

Hh update?

[@MeetKevin]

Soon

[@TrulyS2345]

Flip Flop Again

[@labandonaldhock80]

Buy Tesla and hold!!!! Musk rules, did you watch SpaceX this week.??! Musk delivers!

[@istvanpraha]

Cool but the rally ALREADY happened. Am I the only person who remembers where stocks were 2-4 weeks ago?The market apparently forgot

[@justSTUMBLEDupon]

Double O Seven Dad!

[@Bryan-yq9pz]

Not Good.

[@erikmiller6724]

Good ole Alan Greenspan. The man was literally worshipped at that time. He’s still alive by the way. 😂😂😂

[@DosNacho2161]

i dont think you have any idea what ai is to the market really because its everywhere.......terminator here we come? immm loookiiinnn fooooorrr ssaaarrraaahhh hcooonnnnnoooohhhhhhhh

[@steadymobbin.]

Fed

[@tanomacrame]

Nvda puts 🥺

[@mok822]

Does this mean the stocks will go down or up 😂

[@anishswaminathan4827]

Hi

[@TiagoRamosVideos]

👌

[@davesheffield3620]

Just ask Ross he knows it all 😂😂😂

[@jamesyoo2951]

This time has always been different so far

[@thetiredtourist3927]

who cares about the past.... this is NOW!

[@zachR937]

Every bad advice every time

[@nunobartolo2908]

The stock market will go up long term as the overall profitability rise is an inevitable effect of human ingenuity You can’t time the market Diversify across companies and across time ( don’t deploy all at once ) There is really no benefit in watching trading videos situations are always unique and historical patterns aren’t worth knowing about

[@darrellh4259]

They didn't call it the roaring 90s for nothing

[@markcarrillo2416]

So what you mean is Trumpster or the dumpster? Vote with caution people.

[@jeremysimmons7090]

I think this dude bleaches his Ash Love the content man just not you …

[@tehuti112]

Wtf. You don’t have to watch. His energy is contagious and positive.

[@mahtex6655]

Kevinnnnnnnnnn

[@andrewtrimis1796]

lets go

[@CrazyDJVEVO]

Is this dude still holding afford puts lol

[@rmviv4rmviv443]

4000bc 1st biblical era beggining of garden of eden ends with a flood at 2000bc .... 0 ad begins with birth of christ about 2000ad possible rapture and 2nd coming of christ possible end of world basically god is on a timeline of every 2000 years for a major change according to my research