You won't like it. Star Trek Online

[@jessicacole5955]

"If I need to do a 3rd video, I will" is either a threat or a threat of a good time 😂

[@Mercstar]

I was so distracted with Thursday being represented by a R. It was all I could think about for 15 mins.

[@QuantumNova]

Glad i wasn't the only. It wrecked me pretty hard...

[@chadwickmccarty4944]

I cannot say I understood all of this, but I really enjoy & appreciate this type of under the cover nuts & bolts approach towards game mechanics, especially Cryptic's gambling strategy. I'm also a bit deader inside now too lol. I bet you kill it at Statistics Trivia Night. Thanks for this video & yesterday's too.

[@DrunkFlux]

11:13 An old saying. The house ALWAYS wins.

[@ReyOfLight]

I only open lockboxes if I need Lobi, as for good ships, the meta event campaign is how I get the lockbox or promo ships I need for my build.

[@dominicpinchott7432]

I did a full, huge, 3 forum post analysis of the ST lock boxes back when they first launched. I opened 1,000 lock boxes on the test server and calculated all the prize probabilities. It was a geometric distribution iirc and the median cost of the Jem'hadar ship was $400 at the time. Sadly I lost my backups of those posts and my spreadsheets.

[@SGz_Eliminated]

I was one of the people that wasn't convinced after the first video but I think I completely understand after watching this second one the point you were trying to convey. I think I got lost up in the idea that if you open boxes you have a gambling addiction which isn't necessarily the case, its not an addiction by default only if you're unable to control your urges, but open boxes is still gambling. Which ultimately reinforces your message that the ships being sold are sold by gamblers because if they wanted EC they'd have just sold the keys and if they wanted the ship they wouldn't be selling it. I've opened a moderate amount of boxes over the years and it was absolutely to enjoy the thrill of the gamble and not to make EC

[@mattsmith1859]

Ok, that's not true. Keys don't sell as fast as the ships. A new ship on the open market will sell in hours, and keys take days or longer. And you're not taking into account regional pricing when it comes to keys. Here's the deal. When I started STO I needed EC so I did a bad thing and got in touch with a gold seller. We chatted and I asked how they made their billions of EC so quickly. This guy walked me through how they used to do it and how they do it now. Right now they buy cheap keys, get the ships, sell the ships, and then sell the EC for a profit. On top of the ships, there are still other things out of the boxes that sell for reasonable amounts. According to this fellow, he could take 200 keys that he got at a regional price discount and flip that for nearly 50% profit when he sold the EC. This video is nice for your normal players but it doesn't take a lot of the more shady stuff that's going on into account. It also fails to address the reason the economy is in the sorry state it is in right now and why new players aren't hanging around after they realize it is going to take months to get at least one item off of the exchange they need.

[@SGz_Eliminated]

@@mattsmith1859 I don't think that really changes anything though, even if someone buys the keys at a discount regional price as Gauss already pointed out they'd make more EC selling the keys than using the keys and selling the drops for EC. They're actively choosing the less profitable option because they want to gamble. In my case I was happy to open boxes because of the others drops I'd get which would be stuff I could use or flip for EC but the reality is if I'd have sold the keys I'd have been able to buy what I wanted from the Exchange and been better off in EC. So I was ultimately doing it for the gamble not because it made financial sense.

[@joshbennett5119]

I love math. Bring out the whiteboard more!

[@callum2277]

This is a big part of why I quit STO after 10 years was the realisation that I was spending the cost of multiple AAA games just for the chance to own one ship in an old MMO. Most of the time I didn't even want he ship just its console or trait for another build. I think that once you are looking at builds that with traits, ship , upgrade, consoles, boffs and doffs can cost $100 if not $1000 plus rampant power creep I lost interest. The other big question is can we trust the lockbox odds are truly random? For many years mobile games have used systems that dynamically change the odds for each user to ensure they keep spending. I have no proof that STO uses such a system but rigged Loot box systems are growing more common.

[@esumiwa5583]

Thank you, great analysis. Occasionally I through away 20 keys just to get some of the other items, especially console packs. I have been playing since the days of subscriptions. And in all that time, I have only ever gotten 1 ship from opening lockboxes.

[@NotoriousNickNorris]

In most cases, those 20 keys sold would meet you more than enough to buy what you want from that box and have some (or a lot) left over.

[@aghostspider]

Here is better analogy for people who don't get the math. 125 keys to 100 people is 12500 keys at $1.25 each equals $15,625 or close to the average person who earns a lives in poverty (SNAP, HUD & Medicare), almost the same price for a legendary bundle which gives you a lockbox ship for all your accounts which is lower than the average person has characters This is a statement, if someone said You can live with 70% of your body destroyed, do you want to discover how much limits and suffering you endure? 😅 STO - Thar be whales Captain!! 😂

[@Kai_Rengoku]

27 of 47 is worse than trying to get a ship 😢

[@deavonw]

Infinity box ships should be Lobi ships. Even if they were 1000 per i actually believe this would bring more people to participate and open containers

[@ajtame]

I opened 120 a couple days ago, got 2 t6 boxes, but I've also opened 120 and had none, it's entirely luck I agree and Yes it's better to abuse the gamblers and sell keys and just buy the ship you want, 100%.

[@Triscraft]

I dont play sto figured I would give it ago.. looked at all the shiny ships..watched a bunch of youtube content. Looked at what it would take (or how much it would cost) to get a t6 ship with the reccomended / optimal skills / traits / weapons etc.. and was like "nah" uninstalled it. I admire every one of you that reached that point but from an outsider perspective.. Ooof..to me the lockbox key situation in sto is just absolute madness.

[@gausssto570]

100% The cost of typical youtube build is at least $500 and can be quite a bit more. It is madness. When I get back around to making more build videos they are going to targeted at a much lower price point. Also, you can all the elite content for free so all that stuff is optional if you just want to enjoy the game. The big number chasing is just for fun.

[@NotoriousNickNorris]

⁠what about the idea of builds having both low budget/f2p and max budget options? Start with the cat's arse version and then modify it with substitutions for what's available for free or cheap with nothing more than regular gameplay.

[@hoodwinkiez]

I'm still struggling with Thursday being a R. :D

[@Grievous-]

Thanks for this comprehensive video. One thing I'd like to add is I don't believe that you clarified that you are talking about the odds of getting a T6 ship and not the T5's. I only add this as some newer players may not have known.

[@braxen3937]

I only ever had 1 T6 drop from countless of openings...I don't hunt for these things anymore and if I do get keys, it's only for the Lobi Crystals, Mining Claims and Traits for new toons. Also You could have used "TH" for Thursday 🤕

[@jessicacole5955]

Prof Gauss strikes again!!

[@goldgodryukendo913x]

Yeah about my post from the other day. The Na'Khul Archeros Battlecruiser was very unique because it was the SIDE ship. similar to the Herald Vonph to the Herald Quas. That is why when I paid 800mil for it when it came out on the exchange. Infinity Packs weren't even a thing yet. Infinity Lockbox didn't become a thing until late in 2016.

[@h4rdkn0x]

Oooh so it is Spencer that is selling all those Lockbox ships because of his gambling addiction... :P

[@CaptainJasonC]

Thank you for the video I love the game but the lock box ships are just too high for me to gamble on..

[@thunderstar6997]

MATLAB...I use it with my EE classes and as an Engineer...love you did this.

[@MrApostolis78]

The system is rigged. It always is. The house is the only one that always wins. I bought a lifer sub in 2010. It is now 2023 and using dil farming and the stipend I only ever won 2 ships. 1 in a random box and 1 from a zen store pack in 13 years.

[@QuantumNova]

An 'R' for Thursday... My brain couldn't handle that. I had to take a small break, before finishing the video.

[@rjframe4410]

There is one other person who would be opening all those boxes....Lobi store lovers....Cause you always get lobi from a lockbox, and for me, unless i want a ship or im hunting for a specific upgrade, I'll open the boxes FOR lobi until i get enough to grab things i need.

[@billyyank2198]

Could you post a link for the Python script? I'd like to experiment with it.

[@nixboox]

But always remember, kiddos, that you can win the big prize on your FIRST try.

[@KatanisPSN]

My brain derped and did not read that as the word Math.

[@gausssto570]

That would have been a very different video lol

[@KatanisPSN]

​@@gausssto570Maybe, just maybe.😂

[@MatthewBluefox]

The backlog is still 2 million and rising. Maybe they let the farmers back in.

[@NotoriousNickNorris]

Next lies the real dilemma: if everyone, or nearly everyone follows this sage advice, the market values will shift, including a steep reduction in the amount of ships and other lockbox items available to purchase for that EC. It would either reach a point where Cryptic would have to prop up the exchange by placing items for sale themselves, or consider folding the game due to unprofitability. So I put it to you and the fans: how do we change the dynamic such that people will continue to spend the same amount of money in the game, to keep Cryptic happy, while getting a result players will also be happy with, while not diluting the pool so much that spending doesn't recede once players reach capacity/satisfaction and taper off?

[@eiohnanananunu9871]

Where were you during the age of terrible (More terrible) STOpedia page and before T6 ships? You could have saved m- No who am I kidding. I had a problem buying those ships for the thrill with keys.

[@Nemoticon]

RNG Lockboxes don't exist to me... in any game.

[@entropy11]

Absolutely crappy odds.

[@briguy345]

They should at least buff the pity system. The sad thing is that people will spend the money on lockboxes no matter what, so theres no incentive to do this.

[@getahorsetostickittoputin]

Tbh I thought the odds were much lower

[@martinarg1979]

This video is an excellent example...but...all the non gambling players need those gamblers because without them there will be no ships in the exchange or in the black market to sell,as an ex gambling player i already knew this but i was taking advantage of the regional price of Argentina because i live there,now it's impossible to me to keep doing it because: 1) We are limited to spend 200 dollars per month in anything that cost dollars 2) Epic games remove the regional price for a higher one (from 2019 to february of 2023 the big bundle of zen was at 41.49 dollars,from february to now it cost 139.99 dollars) so that stop my giveaways but was very cheap so that's why i did gamble,now i'm doing what you explain here. In my experience,i did gambling in all keys sales and promo since 2019 to 2023 and just one time i didn't get a ship doing gambling,but i started recording those to late,at that time i was already get all the old ships from lockboxes and promo,now as many years i'm always waiting new releases because i get the new ship the same day of the release or some days after,but nothing else to buy.

[@tenalpoen]

The exchange is anonymous for sellers so cryptic could very easily keep ships on there just to keep people engaged with it. You cannot convince me that they don't already do that.

[@martinarg1979]

@@tenalpoen Cryptic release ships in Boxes but opening them only depend of those players,same thing with the dilithium exchange

[@tenalpoen]

Believe what you want, but I would need to see absolute proof they don't put ships on the exchange.

[@martinarg1979]

@@tenalpoen 🤣😂 are you serious? 🤣😂

[@tenalpoen]

I am dead serious.

[@alpha-bravogaming4331]

[@Caveman_420]

Your whole analogy is people who are spending this kind of money and selling it for less of return for the joy of gambling are addicts. I sell used stuff for a living. Here is something to think about, I have $8 and I buy a six pack of Coke, I drink all six cokes but I take the cans to the recycler and get $0.10 a can, am I throwing away my money? A can of Coke has no nutritional value. Some people will even throw the can away. You're asking complicated questions where there is no clear value, purchasing anything Star Trek online? Even items in the mud store goes for ridiculous amount of money and they're 10 years old.

[@KestrelAudits]

Thanks for crunching the numbers

[@UFO721]

The only true value is the lobi

[@short72hp1]

great vid I learned I need to buy my ships from a bot farmer joking 💯👍🖖

[@peterhans3791]

You wrote R for Thursday, but used Sa and Su for Saturday and Sunday so I'm having a real hard time taking you seriously.

[@Shapes_Quality_Control]

This is an absolute “no shit” moment. The question is why should I care?

[@jerrymclellan4711]

Here's the problem. If you are successful in getting everyone to buy their lock box ships on the exchange, and no one to gamble on the lock boxes; then there will be no lock box ships on the exchange for anyone to buy. So, Selfish Me would like for you to quit educating people. 😉

[@marsmotion]

i wouldnt worry. its addiction....thats not something that stops just because you know better.

[@blkking606]

you know what get in touch with me so we can do a colab....ill explain it later spock

[@RFA_The-DuDe]

I could be considered a whale.. or i could not be, depending on what a whale is.. in terms of money spend. I am not a gambler though. last time i gabled anything, was when i was 17-yo, put i a coin into a gambling machine, and won 150 coins. that was over 55 yeas ago. Sure, if i see something i like, i buy, people a cryptic gotta have their Mercedes right ?.. But i will not gable. so NO lock-boxes. over the 4-ish years i play this game i have spend thousands of euro's on it. and if you could buy endeavors, i would... Does this make me a gambler ?...probably not. A whale ?... maybe... who the fuck knows.. i don't care... and neither should you.