The Rarest Item in TF2

Source information and caveats below!
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Twitter: / zesty_jesus
Twitch: / zesty_jesus
Discord (first 5 only): / discord
2nd Channel: / @zestyalt
Support me on Patreon: / zesty_jesus
My TF2 Server: zestyjesus.com/
Thumbnai Bnnuy by JauntyWeb:
/ jauntywebau
Music:
Stardust Speedway Zone Act 1 - Sonic Mania [OST]
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Mischievous Step
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Lemonade Diary
Pink Guy - Fried Noodles [DVNZXL Remix]
Sources and Caveats
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Certain types of items were omitted from consideration, specifically glitched items, promotional items, and gifts from Valve. Quantifying the statistical probability of occurrence for these items is not possible, for obvious reasons (i.e. a gift is a gift).
Australium Drop Spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Article on TF2's unusual drop rate:
tf2finance.com/rate/
Item Counts, Item Grade Abundance, Stat-Clock Abundance:
TF2tools.net
TF2 Skin Sticker and Pattern Information:
steamcommunity.com/sharedfile...
CSGO's case odds:
www.pcgamesn.com/counter-stri...
www.csgo.com.cn/news/gamebroa...
By law, Chinese companies must publicly display the results of all lottery results (including case openings):
www.csgo.com.cn/hd/1707/lotte...
Given the abysmal state of item servers, previous versions of the TF2tools webpages were accessed via the Wayback machine:
web.archive.org/web/201606041...
Item grade abundances change with the gradual increase in the number of trade-ups performed. As time goes on, lower grade items are exchanged for higher grade items (hence elite grades going from 0.8% to 1% over the course of about a year, reflecting item consumption and generation, not a change in case odds).
Wear abundance changes are negligible over the lifespan of TF2 skins, unimpacted by trade-ups given the differing nature from CSGO trade-ups.
Note again that the odds shown in the Steam guide are not official, and appear to be largely derived from guesswork or first-order estimates.

[@ZestyJesus]

Hi ohne fans

[@randomportugueseguy2968]

Ok, i have to give it you, i feel personally attacked

[@nubsyyy]

Hello

[@PainTensei551]

Hi 👋

[@Herokiller666]

I saw his vid and went to go watch the full vid

[@alyti]

I'm not even a fan it just showed up in my feed and I was more interested in the actual video, not a stupid short of it, hate when people do that low effort slop farming

[@MegaJani]

Oh boy, I can't wait to experience the inevitable heat death of the universe while tirelessly unboxing crates

[@randomcommenter8274]

Gotta be my favorite unusual effect.

[@karunyagopan]

90% of gamblers quit before they hit it big

[@GrandSnow469]

The question is how much money we would need for that. Is the world annual bugget be enough?

[@russainhockeypuckman7376]

not the universe, just the sun. get your facts right

[@ludwigiapilosa508]

That phrase.... Heat death of the universe. What's that about other than the awesome Fila Brazilia song of the same name?

[@bayoyo5938]

Still not as rare as getting a 10/10 workshop cosmetic

[@Blackstar31557]

There are some awesome cosmetics and good warpaints on the workshop THAT ACTUALLY FIT THE GAME'S ARTSTYLE but Valve knows its playerbase and will continue to add horrible neon vomit warpaints and meme cosmetics.

[@T0moko2001]

go make one

[@ulric8445]

Didn’t soldier’s gigachad or medic’s bogdanoff skin get a 10/10? I blame ceno0 if they did

[@irupana2ify]

Beaten and bruised is in the game!

[@Labyrinth6000]

Probably trolls that are paid by competitors that will rank workshop 1/10 on purpose

[@fawful7457]

Every day, Zesty just sounds like he is 1 funny hat away from killing himself.

[@Proki3012]

+1

[@PyrrhaNikos115]

Imagine some dude just unboxes that rifle in the next week or something- Update: It has been about two weeks and I have not heard anything about someone unboxing this rifle, so-

[@geraldysjunk]

Im already calling it

[@VeetiM]

Dream playing tf2:

[@MrJoeyWheeler]

It is possible of course. It takes 521 billion years according to probability alone, but as is always the nature of probability, you never know. Hell, in theory you could go through all 16 quintillion unboxings and STILL not get it. That'd be an astonishing anti-miracle but it's possible!

[@wezz-t812]

i remember a friend of mine unboxing a rare item from a case after becoming a p2p and selling it for like 5 bucks, he just said he didnt care about the money he didnt like it and thats it

[@bigpenny3509]

if anyone could it would be zesty himself

[@ZestyJesus]

I really should make a Skins 101 video. Seems like quite a few people still don't know the difference between decorated weapons and warpaints.

[@swagguy7515]

that sounds not only informative but highly original, go for it

[@kubsons0732]

Tf2 community monkey IQ as always

[@U_Suketh]

since when were there 2

[@djtrac3r935]

i think the next best question is to ask how much money would be spent trying to get the rarest skin.

[@fallout1.]

Please I don’t get it

[@Pretko]

Then imagine a valve employee just casually creating that warpaint just to fuck with us

[@AnnaSue81]

@@user-defined-X ahyes

[@darloufledestrucucteur346]

If somehow zesty reads this, thanks you for putting out such quality content on my fav game for years and making my day each time a vid comes out

[@ZestyJesus]

Thanks man, I'm glad you enjoy my videos

[@asdasd-dm1hd]

change ur youtuber channel character kdis see this stuff man @@ZestyJesus

[@Nigel-nv3lr]

​@@asdasd-dm1hd nigga ain't nobody care about that lmaoooo

[@jerfer.]

does a buff woman really put kids in danger

[@zichenghan7585]

@@asdasd-dm1hd he doesn't give a shit

[@HammMann]

At this point, the glitchy stuttering effect has pretty much become Zesty's catchphrase.

[@testhekid]

it's beautiful

[@AnnaSue81]

franzj does that too sometimes

[@BorntoOrnn]

First of all, what a great video, I was aware the Golden Frying Pan wasn't the rarest item in the game but I wasn't aware of how rare we were gonna get. Secondly, my brain would have died trying to do all the math you had to do to make this video so, again good job. Finally, I love the editing, specifically how you censor swears by using the same technique as YTPs, having the word reverse itself midway. All in all, good shihs.

[@LARAUJO_0]

Well the math is just multiplication and division. The hard part of this was probably finding the actual odds of certain things, or Zesty happening to know the number of seconds in a year.

[@Kyle_Reese]

Bib Fuf

[@nameless......................]

killstreak kit added to rarest weapon: a m i a f u c k i n g j o k e t o y o u ?

[@ArtistiqueMusic]

I love how Zesty adds more YTP style edits, it's like we are watching his decent into madness in real time with each video.

[@backslash_bks]

Jack FuuFing ShiihS

[@AnnaSue81]

we the audience, is slowly watching as zesty goes fucking haywire-ass insane, each upload

[@Syamfprch]

On his 2nd channel, all his shorts are just YTPs

[@skitriddles635]

I love the irony of the rarest known item of it's kind being known as the "misfortunate" medigun 4:13

[@MrJoeyWheeler]

This just sounds like a challenge. Sure, you need 521 billion years if you open a box per second... BUT... what if you had lots of people opening them simultaneously?

[@niranu78]

Get all 8 billion people on earth to do it you'll get it done in 65 years. It'll be faster as we can get the new borns to unbox when they are capable of doing so.

[@mrfancyshorts6326]

@@niranu78 get everyone 3 computers so it only takes about 22.5 years

[@JAIBADRIVISHAAL]

@@niranu78 BASED Babies

[@chimp1561]

Well since valve has damn near abandoned this game bots are still around. So if you had multiple bot accounts programmed to do nothing but open crates you could manage it eventually. Granted it'd take fucking modern day NASA levels of storage and AI to do it. an inventory can only get so full

[@vin-dog575]

I think the case will go into extinction before we unbox it.

[@WhimsicottFanatic]

The fact that Battle Scarred is the rarest skin quality really surprised me, and further surprising is that the odds are skewed into being Not Too Bad™️ in general, with Field Tested and Minimal Wear being most and second most common, respectively I mean I already had a gut feeling it wasn't an even 20% split for them all, but I really expected Battle Scarred and Well Worn to be most frequent because...well, that'd just kinda be expected from a profit perspective Almost nobody would willingly want the worst weapon qualities, barring skins that have unique deteriorations with wear or, of course, the rarity factor poised in this video, but most would prefer the skins to be perfectly clean or at least close as can be to it, ergo being more likely to get scratched up trash would push consumers to buying more War Paint cases and, by extension, keys

[@nibulsheep8214]

The copium of the madmen who still unbox war paint cases

[@Ludwig_Perpenhente]

It's purely statistical value. There's no other factor like demand or anything. Sure, it's like the worst wear ever. But since it's statistically rare it gets jumped into the pile. Please for the love of god do not even HOPE of thinking you can pull this off. At that point you'd get richer by betting at a Casino everyday or playing the Lottery.

[@ludwigiapilosa508]

Depends a lot on the war paint/skin, the weapon in general (a soda popper in anything less than minimal wear looks horrible) and just the roll of the dice application of all of it.

[@WhimsicottFanatic]

@@ludwigiapilosa508 Honestly I've always hated how the Soda Popper gets painted anyway, mostly because the Crit-a-Cola cans get painted over, which just makes it look like a fucked up Force-a-Nature Really it should've been the Force that became one of the War Paint candidates in the first place, and I don't think I'll ever get an answer as to why the Soda Popper was picked over it

[@colatf2]

I find it so hard to believe that battle scarred is the rarest, I get that and field tested at least half the time

[@StickMaster500]

If we want a good example on how ridiculous these odds are to statistically the rarest item in TF2, it would pretty much be around the same odds of you finding the same pattern Spinda in Pokemon

[@mrkrabs4976]

A few days before this vid I decided to unbox a couple of crates from the Halloween season because why not, and I got a Purple Energy Bombard Brigadier out of the blue. Turned a random $5 into probably a $100. Don't gamble kids :)

[@itsyourguyskye]

did you know that 8/10 gamblers quit right before they hit it big

[@Mr.Marbles]

@@itsyourguyskye gambling actually always gives you back money. thats why the government wants to paint it as bad, because they know every gambler will become a millionaire after a while. trust me. this is how i made it. never stop. you will never lose. never. just keep playing. losing is just raising the probability for the big win. keep playing. ask your bank for more money. do it. just imagine how happy your family will be, when you finally bring back home the millions. sharon will surely come back to you and bring her kids. just keep playing.

[@minus100iq8]

Gambling addiction rehab can cost thousands of dollars and you get nothing But another MvM tour is only 4 dollars and you can get a gpan Spend wisely.

[@t111ran3]

8:23 If I open one case per second, the minimum time required to maybe get this item is *ONE SECOND* There's a chance that it'll drop after the first unboxing

[@no.5689]

technically speaking this exact rifle *could* be unboxed on first try but the chances of that happening are so astronomically low, that hoping ants could find a way to evolve into superinteligent species and conquer the observable universe is more probable

[@MrJoeyWheeler]

Wait, that's it! We'll have the ANTS unbox it! They outnumber us by orders of magnitude, they'd get it done in no time!

[@Geebanger0]

Excellent video Zesty! However, I feel like you may have overlooked one very important factor: because certain item drop rates can be changed to coincide with in game events, the rarest item in the game is in fact the packet of cigarettes your dad went to the store to get.

[@Zodiac28473]

Incorrect, the Disguise Kit is actually a default item that every TF2 player owns, the real rarest item is the love of a TF2 trader's father.

[@pcarrierorange]

@@Zodiac28473 You can’t just pick something that doesn’t exist and declare it the rarest item. Otherwise I could say the peepeepoopoo hat is the rarest item in the game. The rarest item has to at least theoretically exist, which we all know a trader’s parent’s paternal love does not.

[@TheAnnoyingF2P]

Phenomenal editing! Using a mixed version of Pink Guy's Fried Noodles hit me right in the feels and was probably the most appropriate song to cap off a video about one in quintillion odds.

[@ZaTrapu]

When you're so early that the video doesn't show up in the uploader's channel

[@samueljohnson861]

Another great informative video! Keep up the work

[@be9579]

I gotta say Zesty I really appreciate that cut in of you trying to explain how ridiculously low those odds are in a way we would actually understand other than “Wowzah big number”

[@anthonymack6642]

I can see now why that White Gem Macaw Unusual sold for such a high price. Nice video making math interesting.

[@Fatsaver]

Finally you did a video about skins

[@potato2769]

If Dream started doing TF2 unboxings he'd probably get it in a week.

[@blader36850]

i have no idea why youtube recommended me this. I dont play tf2, i dont watch anything with stats, but i just watched a 10min video about a skin for a game i will never play. 10/10 video, easiest decision to sub ive made. cant wait to watch more

[@boKsenTF2]

this was realy well edited, great video!

[@XC11301991]

Knew it was going to be the white Macaw, that weird palette with white is screaming for this type of bs.

[@redbaronplays9382]

That eva reference on the ending 😂😂😂

[@redbaronplays9382]

Always gets me laughing

[@RussellSproutz1]

Spellbound virtual ViewFinder and the double spelled poisoned shadows antlers are pretty big tier items

[@diegodankquixote-wry3242]

A painted cowmangler with an Universal illegal killstreak applied in a present.

[@kingjamesbond4009]

No joke zest because of that sniper rifle you showed at the end I think I may have a reference for a character that I'm making for their weapon. It's that beautiful thank you for this keep up the great work

[@Honda628]

First time seeing a video created by you. Great content! Thank you!

[@markbloom7434]

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance”

[@davidhilsee]

0:46 Ayy he used the TC2 image for the golden pan

[@aminesira4699]

0:48 dang isnt that TC2 golden pan image

[@donanilao7724]

Ah yes. Zesty Jesus spewing out numbers for 10 minutes. Quality Content. Still very interesting to watch.

[@averg6261]

With all these big numbers, this feels like watching the GameTheory video where they calculate how many possible Mario Maker levels there are.

[@mpixl9965]

god i love gambling in videogames

[@BustyCatbot]

I wasn't expecting to laugh within literally 3 seconds, but once again your content is still some of the funniest on the platform while still being informative as fuck

[@thewildruda6113]

I literally haven't played a video game in months, and haven't played TF2 in at least a year or two. Why the fuck am i still watching this

[@foreskinfairy8975]

Thanks for the very wacky numbers on the screen and also for making me aware my balloonicorn sniper rifle is somehow special by having the X one it, that's neat.

[@papakelso]

Zesty all your videos are very well edited and very entertaining.

[@amymialee]

Love the editing these days, it's pretty funky and neat.

[@AvaritiaFirst]

The Macaw White Gem might be rare, but technically I could get it in my next box The lesson in this video: Keep gambling, you'll get it sooner or later

[@trailbreakertv8918]

It's always nice to see a zesty upload

[@uugabuuga7450]

honestly that shit hat with the shit effect was even more insane considering how great the theme of candy goes with confetti

[@takomerp]

I like how Blue Archive soundtrack plays in the conclusion. Like yeah, at this pace the sun will go out before I get Hina, too.

[@TwilightRO1]

That one girl named HIstoria unboxed it, she had all the time in the universe to do it.

[@abdallatifalafandi2522]

How is your dragon fury warpaint covered in blood?

[@AppaBoy]

he has a battle scarred one, which dropped for about a day before valve changed it to always be factory new

[@gianttrance5180]

I remember back in my trading days, I started a collection of vintage weapons, focusing specifically on off-level ones. I grew bored of it, and eventually crafted the whole lot into scrap. roughly 4 backpacks full :P

[@jaimelkor8054]

I was 100% expecting for a video of zesty unboxing exactly that when he showed the final statistics lmao

[@MissNulle2000]

Woo boy! Those items sure are rare! This was a good use of 10 minutes. Thank you mr content man.

[@GayDemonWarlord]

3:17 I wouldn't know whether to be incredibly angry or happy

[@novabox7745]

See, but if I get two or maybe even three computers all unboxing simultaneously… now we’re getting somewhere

[@user-un5xj1wl6p]

That pink guy remix outro helped a lot after the odds

[@ArmoredStruggleWagon]

I'm loving the recent trend in your videos of buzzing audio and reversing audio for clever censorship, it's hilarious

[@The_D_ray]

7:30 Roughly the chance of me finding a good job and enough money to buy me a house.

[@uhh12131]

Didn't know such rare odds were possible for tf2 skins, thanks for such an interesting video!

[@muhgubby]

happy to see another zesty video but i cant believe youre using the scorch shot.

[@bagoid4582]

Blue archive music in the background had me tweaking thinking i left the app open

[@black97_0]

"If unboxing is sure to result in pain and suffering, then you mustn't unbox!" Zesty Jesus said that And I say he knows a little bit more about unboxing than you do pall, because he invented it! And then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor. Then he used his fight money to buy two of every unusuals on the market And then he is horded them in his backpack And then he deleted every single one And from that day forward every time a bunch of unusuals are in one place it's called a mistake! Unless it's a trade server!

[@disappointedcucumber]

I fucking love the YTP editing techniques used in this video. Great shish.

[@edgarsxdwoo7417]

haha i like the swear blurs that franzj also uses- shish, fuuf and reer

[@The_whales]

Just for scale of how high 2 white max gems are, being hit by a falling satellite is 1 in 1 trillion

[@Hexagonaldonut]

Sounds like Dream needs to roll a Max White Gem Macaw Masked War Paint.

[@stellaanderson570]

sick vid as always also ur beard looks handsome af king!!!!

[@marcopolo8584]

This is some Top Shelf content. It's cool learning these insights from a real TF2 High Roller. This really puts the Nail in the Coffin of the myth that the Burning Flames Team Captain is the rarest TF2 item. With one of these items, you'll be Dressed to Kill.

[@pphrph]

so you're saying the strange cool unusual battle scarred max white gem macaw masked warpaint is possible

[@blukat9903]

Yeah i would have said we could make a hundreds of bots spam unboxing but then i realized how much money we need to spend to create that item

[@ChipDrewPog]

9:15 Schools after years of lessons:

[@THEFurfoot]

Any time zesty talks statistics I get a serious sense of cosmic dread

[@Jalzerr]

What is- WhahW- the rar aaa- oo- snees portal 2 🔥🔥

[@glad16252]

So what you're saying is, either: A) I unbox the rarest warpaint B) I got broke first C) The heat death of the universe happens Well, I'm a betting man, and that looks like a 1/3 chance to me!

[@sukamii]

The joji intro hits, been bumping Burbank a ton recently ‘longside the changing color of the leaves

[@KamaroTheN7]

0:03 ME2 Afterlife lower level, nice.

[@apurpledragon]

Watch as the next skin he unboxes is this one just like the Golden Frying Pan he did.

[@RodomeMane]

This reminds me when Archimo mentioned the odds of a Strange Unusual Elite Grade Factory New being unboxed and someone ended up unboxing one days later

[@DrDanthrax99_tf2]

This video inspired me to do some digging to see if this (or something close) has actually been unboxed, and while its not a *white* gem, I did actually find a strange unusual macaw masked blue gem war paint on a search through TF2's most valuable backpacks, figured I'd start there since those would likely be the only ones with that kind of buying power, and lo and behold the #2 backpack on the list has one, which based on this info, would likely make it the statistically rarest item in the entire game that actually exists.

[@atpyro7920]

it’s always a good day when a video about a video game weapon skin makes me aware of my own mortality and impermanence in this universe. thanks zesty.

[@ArtistiqueMusic]

I think a follow up to this should be "how much money would Valve make if someone opened 1 case per second for that many years

[@gmodalexlol]

This makes even the burning flames team captain look small af

[@WoodlandTrotter]

Still less rare than an update where Spy gets safety scissors for a knife

[@Strawboss462]

Love the half swearing shits funny. Good vid as always!

[@SonofTiamat]

This was both fascinating and mind breaking

[@TheSamuel12777]

The odds are fifty fifty, I either unbox it or I don’t . Duh.

[@allet8107]

In today's video we learn what will burn out first: unboxing-centric TF2bers or the sun?

[@crustman_]

5:52 Would the Blood Pattern Texture also be applied to skins this way? Like would it select the blood texture (paint_blood) for the selected wear and pick a 205x205 tile, then apply it to said war paint/skin texture? Really would love to know how blood is applied to skins, since certain blood patterns look pretty sick.

[@Slendermaster968]

If only boxes weren't of limited quantity, (and so is our lifespan) these items would be unboxed one day.

[@monsieurm3989]

Honestly people want factory new stuff so calculating battle scarred might be true for rarest but not most desired

[@JuhMall01]

2:35 Let's see Paul Allen's unusual

[@tont4_tomster]

i like how zesty jesus used the typical colors 2 golden frying pan for this instead of the actual tf2 golden frying pan picture

[@green_beret8567]

The cosmetic they gave exclusively to Notch, minecraft creator: *laughs in unobtainable*

[@yashida1999]

"House alwaise win!" Hot damn Zesty, I've didn't notice you playing Fallout New Vegas

[@endy2530]

All you need to focus on is the one chance tho. Remember, 99% of gamblers quit before they win big.

[@Jack_26]

Thank you for this information.

[@ducke9848]

All I heard was, there’s a chance

[@LewdestLiz]

I image a group of people will form in some time just to try the impossible.

[@sevendeadlysquids404]

My guess - Conscientious Objector without an Anime character on it.