Zillow (Z) Stock Valuation Forecast - How High Can This Stock Go?

[@TheGreekGodOfWallStreet]

It would be really interesting to see you revisit and revise your model now that they have permanently ended their home flipping business.

[@CstewartCFA]

It might be a good thing. It was a weak margin business with big risk and they are cutting 25% of the workforce.

[@jenenpal.899]

@@CstewartCFA hi Cameron will you still consider Z a buy ?

[@MrPotes]

Outstanding analysis. Could you please do a review with the current conditions? That would be amazing. Cheers!

[@ChrisBerg]

Can you do any REITs? I'd like to see how to analyze the prospects of REIT investments; for example "O" Realty Income Corporation. Thanks.

[@pablodoradoo]

I would love to see an analysis on a REIT too

[@crepituss9381]

SPG just got upgraded to a $177 price target, it's at $133 right now. I am biased, as I already own it, but am interested in why - there are often no details given by the analyst groups do this.

[@crohmer]

@@crepituss9381 analyst price targets mean NOTHING

[@David.Marquez]

It feels like too long since every last video, Cameron Stewart videos are just that good.

[@carlmannhard8051]

+1

[@mrsdbrc]

+1… I guess reading a 10K with 250+ pages consumes alot of his time… he puts out quality not quantity 😀

[@MeirelesdeSousa1]

He shows amazing analysis of the stock market, he reviews a great scotch, he’s not the hero we asked but actually the hero we needed! Keep the channel, you’re killing it!

[@WheresWaldo05]

Ok Alfred

[@frodokuzey6169]

Cameron you are matchless on youtube. Not exaggerating. Thank you

[@HGLehnsdal]

Cameron you're my favorite analyst. I analyze companies using your method. And one of my best performing stocks (MGA) is due to you. So thank you. I wonder if soon or later yoy could analyze some of the 3 companies I found way undervalued. 2 value plays, one growth. The companies are CI, HPQ and VRTX Thank you for your time and work. You're amazing

[@TheDeni993]

Hpq seems to have too much debt

[@BrianYugioh]

I'm watching this video in December 2021 while Zillow is at $60. Definitely going to start dollar cost averaging into the stock. Great video as always Cameron!

[@streetbeef1747]

its not like anything has changed! /s - check out the nov news release

[@Pamino]

Can you update the valuation forecast now that the ibuying bussiness is gone?thank you

[@BTC-ETH-SOL-SUI]

Hey Cameron... would love your view on this today

[@suggsadventure4945]

Likewise, your advice would be really welcome, Cameron!

[@andrebastos3362]

did you not take into account dilution? they have a cagr of 11% dilution, which, if it continues, would cut the price in half of your estimate

[@cesare4926]

Would be really interested to see the analysis done on the stock at the current levels it is at now. Seems like a steal if the thesis hasn't changed but the chart looks brutal.

[@Dr.Dumpnpump]

Great job ...what a KZbin gem this account is.

[@LSAMace]

do i increase my position or run

[@RedWhite_Apparel]

Please revisit! Z looks much better after exiting iBuying

[@root123]

Can you do an update?

[@The_Reasonable_Man]

The BEST channel on KZbin! Hands DOWN! I’d like to see Cameron as a guest on CNBC’s Halftime Report! He can talk stocks with the best of them!

[@zizea6701]

Any chance of an update?

[@CstewartCFA]

Need to see how much they cut their SG&A as a result of the business change

[@suggsadventure4945]

Cameron, love your analysis. Like the 'Greek God', i'd love to see you revisit this since the end of the home flipping revenue streams.

[@juanajob]

Hey Cameron I think you are using the wrong number for excess cash. It appears that you are using the numbers for "short term investments". Is there any reason that you are using that figure. On the 10k it shows that "cash and cash equivalants" is $1.7 billion for 2020 and $1.41 billion for 2019. I am confused? Was this in error or did you mean to use "short term investment " number intentionally?

[@geryfung]

The quality of this content is fantastic. Subbed.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks.

[@SuperZander1999]

I loved this video, took a half hour sauna and watched it 👌🏻 I think the estimate is very conservative and as a shareholder I love that, very realistic look. I think they will continue to expand their software offerings and as they grow their high Margin segments will outperform, in my opinion

[@shianhuang7372]

Hi Cameron, thanks for the video, really enjoy it. One question, for excess cash column, why only use Short-term investments, but Cash And Cash Equivalents is not included?

[@mikhailkarpovdev]

I'm also integerested in. I've asked this question, but Cameron didn't asnwered that . Sorry for my poor English

[@Future_Fortunes_DE]

Have you bought it now close to 50 USD?

[@erickcrespo3252]

Is Zillow still a buy?

[@salamonshevda5239]

I tis around 50 $ now. Are you gong to buy ? :)

[@LSAMace]

What do you think today, they just laid off 25 percent of their staff. I bought it yesterday at 87.99 and it just crapped the bed today, did I buy a sinking rock, or should I DCA it. have the fundamentals on the company changed?

[@HighestIQ]

It's good that they are focusing on their high margin really low capex main business now but I'd still want to see a management/board shake up. Was really stupid to go into the home flipping game and wouldn't have bought before but now would consider.

[@chessdad182]

Ouch.

[@biancacherem3616]

I would like to know about Opendoor tech, that is the same industry ! if you can do a video on it.

[@GamblersEdge]

This video was amazing. Subscribed ! Keep up the great work

[@drunkgambler3482]

Z is shooting to be one stop for RE. Browsing, Financing, Buying.

[@starlette098]

Amazing in depth analysis! Are you able to do an updated version of Baba, with all the noise going on, I think it's much needed :)

[@jcd4634]

I wonder what you think of the recent news and drop around Trulieve (TCNNF). Do you think the FCF is in danger from regulatory response or is the stock oversold? How do you handle that sort of news event after doing fundamental analysis?

[@14soccercrazed]

This stock trades OTC and with such low volume and the fact that it’s a federal illegal business (meaning no institutional investors) that it’s hard to base its solid earnings and margins on what it’s share price should be

[@jcd4634]

@@14soccercrazed I would agree, as would Cameron (He did a review of it a few months ago here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/op_LfolsdrZnatU ), that it is dependent on becoming legalized in the next 10 years. My question is more around, could a stumble early on, limit their growth enough in the early years that it would impact the long run price. That is a sort of sensitivity analysis he didn't do and I wonder if he does that normally or if he does that after news shows up impacting the stock. It's more a, "What do you do when the story changes?" question.

[@tw9668]

Another major flaw in logic - assuming EBITDA margin will grow linearly. NO! Not even mighty Apple and Microsoft can grow their margin like that. No! No! No! No! No!

[@n5688434]

This video didn’t age well lol

[@CreateTech]

Hey! Thoughts on Peloton? Too speculative?

[@clayblythe]

Nice analysis Cameron, what discount rate did you use for calculating present value of future cash flows?

[@CstewartCFA]

Discounts vary based on the person. We all have financial goals, what return on your money over your investing life do you need? Use that number with a little more for taxes and cushion. Don’t build up from the TSY yield, that’s crazy low.

[@frankdavidson644]

Great information thanks you 👍

[@joseplacencia54]

revenues are a bit off, at the end of the 10 years revenues should be around double what is forecasted in camerons analysis, my opinion lol

[@chessdad182]

Hindsight is 20/20. I just had to stop by after the meltdown. I probably won't buy it in any case, but if the market takes a hit, this is definitely going into a more favorable price range.

[@CstewartCFA]

ya. I touched on the weak margins of the home flipping business in the video. Long term, I think it's a good thing they are exiting at business but they were trading on a multiple of revenue and that's going to hurt.

[@0MaXxXiMuS0]

This didn't age to well. New thoughts?

[@binhpham-by6ch]

Hi Cameron, as usual, great presentation ! How do you get the EBITDA growth number to be positive 32.9% ? Please shed some light. Thank you

[@zubinlalani1315]

Is it just me or Ebitda growth by year calculation looks incorrect.

[@j.m0ney133]

Free cash flow per share CAGR over the last five years has been 80%. However, the company's financials are all over the price. Not a predictable business from a fundamental aspect based on historical numbers. Not a good value play in my opinion. Too much growth built into the stock with a 166 PE. A pass for me.

[@garrisonsimon]

Nice analysis! I bought some shares at $85.

[@cyclops9125]

Looks like u made alot of money

[@garrisonsimon]

@@cyclops9125 Just picked up another 10,000 shares at $65! Lowered the cost basis on this one. Looks like a multibagger in the next 2 or 3 years.

[@mrsdbrc]

Love your work! Been a sub since last year and watched almost all the videos… any chance to cover HPQ or CRSR or HUYA?

[@sagig72]

Thanks Cameron. Good video. Any chance you can do AVGO ?

[@HighestIQ]

You should do $dbx Dropbox next.

[@frossato]

How can someone dislike such a level of analisys and all the effort put behind it?

[@TheGreekGodOfWallStreet]

Great video, subscribed. I started buying into ZG recently. They are definitely a company with a lot of room for growth long-term and its refreshing to see them corrected into a fairer value range from their peak covid hype.

[@jreda333]

Funny, I just shorted her last week.

[@TheGreekGodOfWallStreet]

@@jreda333 Admittedly, I didn't expect them to permanently stop their house-flipping business within a few weeks of my initial investment. But, I did not think I would time the bottom either ;)

[@jordandeaver683]

PLEASE DO A PRESENTAIOM ION disca

[@edbifulco]

Thank you 🙏🙏

[@jordandeaver683]

Really appreciate your work

[@kingsleyaliu6758]

First! I was waiting patiently for your next awesome stock analysis 👏🏿

[@nikjonesie3536]

Great work as usual Cameron, thanks 🙌🏾

[@AswinMuralidharan1993]

Excellent analysis as always. Can you do an analysis on bio rad? They are currently in S&P 500 with a relatively low PE ratio.

[@joelrocha1215]

Great Video and analysis, shall we expect a video about PTON in the near future?

[@ccinvest9932]

I'm a simple man, I see a Cameron Stewart video, I click

[@evenwins]

sitting for L1 in a few days....this put everything together very well!

[@thaluta]

walgreens, broadcom or tencent next please

[@gustavolarraga9394]

Watching this with $Z at 57 dlls 🤯🤯

[@CyclingLasVegas]

How about a deep dive of NXST? Great growth at an even better valuation!

[@tysonboynton6704]

Hello Cameron, big fan of your analysis usually but I am very curious: why are your estimates so damn low? Consensus estimates for 2025 are over $23bn in total revenues. Your *2030* estimate is $16bn. Makes no sense unless you’re a mega bear on this company (which it sounds like you aren’t). Management even reiterated on call that they are on track for $20bn in homes revenues in the next 3-5 years. Love the content, but your assumptions are disingenuous at best…

[@johnclark8631]

Great video Cameron! I would be interested in seeing you do JAZZ pharmaceuticals and or TSM. JAZZ has really dropped recently. Looks cheap. They have been buying back shares.

[@CstewartCFA]

I’m worried China is going to take over Taiwan and that’s enough risk for me on TSM

[@theovos2130]

Thanks as always for this great research! So I stay critical: trailing p/e 166; forward p/e 89; these are high numbers. Profit marge 3,7 % operatig 8,18 % not so high; short % of shares outstandig 8,48% is a high number for me. On this moment I am not direct interested in this stock.

[@williamdonabue6383]

Hello sir. You asked me to remind you of ups vs FedEx. Also, any chance that you would do a Reit? Thank you and have a nice day.

[@jomonthomas8626]

Excellent analysis and info. Thank you Cameron.

[@mikhailvasilev7161]

APX down 20% today. What are your thoughts?

[@PrashantKhanolkarUSA]

I usually hit the Like Button and then watch the video because i know it will be awesome.

[@CstewartCFA]

Thanks for saying that.

[@PrashantKhanolkarUSA]

@@CstewartCFA Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge and perspective with the world and enjoy that Balvenie 15 year delicious. Cheers.

[@charlie02081988]

Please analize American Express (AXP)

[@guilhermerossler7208]

Ferrari Race please - Strong growth, strong revenue, good margins… it’s a company with capital intense but luxury margins e luxury multiplus. I liked! Not bigger returns, but very solid for long term

[@kingsleyaliu6758]

If possible could you revisit AAPL & AMZN

[@drunkgambler3482]

Loading up at 86$ a share today.

[@chessdad182]

Oh boy.

[@a.ringson]

Has Mr.Stewart alreay retiered?

[@crohmer]

uh oh hes got the whiskey flowing !

[@TreesOnTheBeach]

I'm down almost 14% on ZG. :(

[@HighestIQ]

Ummmm......

[@mikekorn6968]

Cameron any idea when you may analyze "T" ??? Thanks

[@crohmer]

he already did

[@mikekorn6968]

@@crohmer i'm looking for 2021

[@aarongibson6499]

Cameron. Love the videos. Please READ!!!! You spend a ton of time doing so much great research only to butcher the most important part of your price prediction. The market multiples you choose have insane effects on your target price. These market multiples are NOT multiples that simply get applied to a company and don't change in time. They WILL contract as growth slows. Your model projects that in 10 years revenue growth will be closer to 10% instead of 20%. Makes a ton of sense. But the idea that the EV/EBITDA multiple will stay at 25 is false. Also, you said it yourself that the EBITDA and FCF will track each other in a business like Zillow. Then shouldn't the market multiples you use reflect that. If you use 25x on EV/EBITDA then it seems like you should use 4% on the FCF yield. If you use more conservative assumptions like 18x on EBITDA and 5.5% on FCF. Your price targets are 125 and 100!!!!. The true grade for this stock is. "Lease idiotic of the crap Cathie owns"

[@CstewartCFA]

Hi Aaron, That's a very good comment and I appreciate the feedback. I'll review my multiples of growth companies going forward. I look at companies like Amazon, NetFlix, SalesForce and other all of which have help very high multiples for long periods of time and Zillow is such a driving force in the RE market (I can't think of another competitor with equal capability) that I want to give them some extra credit. I could be wrong.

[@robertlopez9347]

Great video 👍👍... Zillow has an earnings yield of less than 1. A price to cash flow ratio of 50..... High valuations.. They continue to dilute the shares outstanding.... They are facing massive competition... Their growth is going to be low in the future... I do see a ton of excitement around the stock, so it might go higher in the coming months...

[@MrTrevormctrevor]

Who do you see as their competition ?

[@drunkgambler3482]

Z is the strongest brand on the Market. Rock solid balance Sheet. Revenue doesn't come from flipping only, unlike OPEN. But more importantly - Demographics. Millenials moving out of their parents houses.

[@ericmudrock1585]

I don’t want to be overly critical, but I feel his models seem to overvalue well established companies like Microsoft and undervalue high growth companies like Zillow. This video might have been extreme because he took super depressed revenue growth during the pandemic. (I am long Z)

[@rahulparikh6183]

Well this didnt age well

[@FunnyAsian00]

anyone taking his course and how is it?

[@aplebian7097]

Leaving a comment for a wise captain to come and inform.

[@philippusparacelsus4136]

Great video.. I would love to see an analysis of Tencent Holdings!

[@evertvandenbrink2306]

Could you do Xiaomi?

[@shawnmoghadam6346]

Zillow down 30%, long video full of convincing bad advice. Did you see this coming?

[@MrMe629]

Watch from 5:00min on out. He saw how low the profits were reported for the house flipping part. Would be interesting to analyze the company again, based only on the platform revenues and profits.

[@coldspot7573]

hows that bad? a cheaper buissness to grab onto... or scop more shares

[@sachinchhabra4075]

Always love your analysis...pls keep going. Maybe also want to consider some of growth names if possible... SKLZ / ROKU / CLOV / SOFI etc

[@altairjb]

Came on sale too soon...

[@somawaks4053]

nice vids. Can you do intel? and AMD

[@crohmer]

already did Intel, look at his past videos people

[@fin8927]

really interesting company and great choice of whisky!

[@stevemar8027]

Would you trust these guys given their ridiculous business mistake on flipping homes based on an algorithm?

[@DirtyMinusBit]

Hi Cameron, nice one! VIAC could be an interesting one at the moment, too. Value investors bought into it last quarter

[@crohmer]

"value investor bought into it" huh? Such a broad, vague statement

[@DirtyMinusBit]

@@crohmer You're right. Christopher Bloomstran, David Katz, Robert Olstein, Charles Bobrinskoy and ClearBridge Value Trust added to their positions.

[@michaelromero2408]

When are you starting your whiskey channel? Or have you already? 🤔

[@jcd4634]

I'd love to see you do a REIT (rather than a house flipper like Zillow), given REITs tend to be evaluated via [A]FFO, not FCF. Do you use the same process or how is it adjusted? What do you think about interest rate risk around REITs? How do you handicap possible deflation from changes in interest rates? How do you think about book value as a defense to permanent capital loss, or are you only concerned about the free cash flow the business generates?

[@thomasp__]

YES, I was going to ask for the same thing

[@tysonboynton6704]

Zillow is not a “house flipper”

[@jcd4634]

@@tysonboynton6704 Zillow claims not to flip houses per their FAQ, but they buy homes to then repair them and resell them. Wiki says Flipping is defined as "Flipping is a term used primarily in the United States to describe purchasing a revenue-generating asset and quickly reselling (or "flipping") it for profit." Perhaps Zillow does not make any money on the sale of the houses, but certainly it does not seem the financial press (fool, bloomberg, cnn, etc.) thinks that given the number of articles I found on google by searching "does zillow house flip".

[@lucasolari9450]

Teladoc please

[@rafaelcarmo5562]

Balvenie? Waaaw good choice

[@1Bridem]

This didn’t age well. Oops

[@wacio]

And... now thy are imploding!!!!

[@kingconstructo]

CRM salesforce soon?

[@CstewartCFA]

Solid company. I did review it and loved the company.

[@kingconstructo]

@@CstewartCFA was thinking of an update after earnings and the slack acquisition. I'm holding it, but losing conviction on holding it long term.

[@philippusparacelsus4136]

Balvenie ... great taste!

[@IQBooks-pub]

Study TSLA instead. TSLA KL PLTR

[@mizanoors4235]

Fiverr would be a very good stock to analyse Cameron.

[@mjuhazie]

Ouch..