A “Day of Reckoning” is Coming for Multifamily Real Estate in 2024

Рет қаралды 56,097

BiggerPockets

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 45

@yeahjug03 8 ай бұрын

Amazing insight. Question: how do mom and pop multi family landlords survive and thrive in this 2024 market

@johnnyb33good21 8 ай бұрын

1 to 4 unit properties have 30-year fixed-rate debt as long as you don't have massive vacancies or rents don't decrease substantially, you will be able to hold your property so you're not going to be as affected as the commercial debt held on these 5 units and above properties were their mortgages balloon in 3,5,7, or 10 years. And when your mortgage balloons, that means you have to either refinance, give your lender cash or sell your property. And that is super tough because interest rates are higher. Might turn your positive cash flow deal into a negative territory

@toxicthesniper8264 7 ай бұрын

Find better deals. If it's really a deal and you know what you're doing you can sleep during the storms.

@tinachxx110 7 ай бұрын

Why doesn’t he mentioned his own company praxis making the same bad deals as every syndicators as well? I invested in their syndication and they also miscalculated as well. Why not even mention that their own syndication deal during 2022 also went south too. But you would think they know better since they been in the game for so long.

@StephBLike 8 ай бұрын

This was a very helpful episode. Matt and Brian explained everything we experienced this year with the list/bid gap and rent plateau changing our underwriting. Also, the questions Dave asked were so good. Thank you all!

@SigmaStevenShipp 7 ай бұрын

Way wrong numbers on distressed debt maturing. Bottmline any debt originated in the last 3.5 years with Bridge ARM is deeply troubled. Huge opportunity will follow on the heals of huge challenges. As a workout Professional, I am on the front line seeing this all unravel....SS

@lynniahherron7434 3 ай бұрын

I NEED THE FOLLOW UP CONVO!!! This was goooooood!!!! 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽

@luisr6377 4 ай бұрын

How can I get started using the equity of my home to turn it into a multi family property? Sitting on about $100k conservatively. Or bad idea? Prefer to deal in Georgia since it’s the state I live in but open to options

@user-nt8kc7ho6d 6 ай бұрын

One thing that needs to be factored in is that a lot of MS deals are value add. So while values are down significantly you still need to factor in the value that has been created. Net, net the losses may not be as large as one would think.

@zhustler 8 ай бұрын

man i feel like getting into the market at the worst/best time... Worst because i cant find a deal that pencils out. Good becuase im going through alot of learning curves so i feel like ill be ready to go all in when the deals start popping up... If there is a seasoned investor reading this i need help... Im hungry to get some units under my bet because im 23 years old and havent owned real estate since 2018... Im been underwriting commercial multifamily becuase i really want 25-50 unit for my first transaction but beings were in a droubt i need advice on how to still get in... Im in san diego ca. Short term rentals are popular here so this is an option for me. I dont want to go into my whole plan on here but i would love to connect with a pro.

@zhustler 8 ай бұрын

i commented too early! Very insightful video, y'all read my mind… San Diego brokers, and investors lets connect!

@paulgomez3318 7 ай бұрын

You’re in a terrible market! Come help me underwrite deals in TX.

@Romanoff123 Ай бұрын

What’s your financing going to be for that unit count? Syndication or planning to take out a loan via bank?

@chigley55 7 ай бұрын

How are these CRE trends expected to affect banks like NYCB, who have a lot of multi-family loans in their portfolio?

@jasonjosephlee 5 ай бұрын

There are great deals to be found in any market. We have found some great deals for our investors in this market. We just have to make sure not to underwrite deals based off of interest rates.

@patton9696 8 ай бұрын

I’ve heard this for 3 years

@delinquense 7 ай бұрын

One has to be careful when speaking of the "retail" market. A well grounded and anchored outside mall or shopping center (I. E. grocery like Publix or big name retailer like Walmart) will continue to thrive as long as the majority of tenants are considered essential. Most of these went thru the pandemic without so much as a bruise to their bottom lines. As long as management refinanced with reasonable rates, there will not be much of a reckoning any time soon.

@Multi-FamilyMan-fp5ki 3 ай бұрын

Great conversation and thank you for the info!

@antoniostephano 8 ай бұрын

Can anyone double check Brian's math at 29:15 where he says an increase in cap rate from 4% to 6% requires a 50% devaluation to get the same amount of NOI. I am getting a 33% devaluation rather than 50%. Because of Brian's experience I amt assuming I am doing something wrong but would love to know do calculate this devaluation accurately.

@gimlisbeardcomb 8 ай бұрын

4% to 6% means a 2% increase over 4. 2 is 50% of 4.

@Walina-gv9ph 8 ай бұрын

@antoniostephano I hope you saw my calculations below. Yep, you are correct. This is an easy mistake to make but sometimes it is best to do the math. V=i/r $25=$1/4% $16.67=$1/6% So $25 to $16.67 Wouldn't 50% be $12.50? $12.50=$1/8% Novices get caught up in the % when in cap rates that only represents a dollar amount. 10% cap rate stands for $10 and 5% cap rate means $20.

@justincadle7070 7 ай бұрын

The ARM loans will kick in. We will see about the correction. The Wall Street hedge funds that bought up single family real estate will have to liquidate when their assets get marked to market. It won’t be an option to sell there portfolio, they will have to sell their portfolio. And they won’t be able to sit and wait at these high prices.

@ShameenYakubu 7 ай бұрын

ARM loans are less than 7-8% of all residential mortgages… commercial will be the main ones hit

@TexasCountryLiving 8 ай бұрын

BiggerPockets OG’s.

@paulgomez3318 7 ай бұрын

This is how it feels to underwrite multifamily to be honest with ya. 2023 was demoralizing as a newbie.

@evaaguilar5361 7 ай бұрын

How about the new no "tax deductible for 2025 & on"

@ReasonableHuman1 8 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@cloverhomes6188 7 ай бұрын

Love the guys on podcast! Og’s but dang the doom and gloom. At the end of the day real estate is local and opportunities are there because life happens. No matter the market. Someone out there needs out of their property and will be willing to give up equity for speed and convenience.