Are You Pot Committed? Quick Poker Math Tip

[@CrushlivePoker]

At 9:37 Bart explains how he would do some quick combo math on the fly in this spot

[@conephompany]

you lost me at 10:40 could you explain what you meant by "10% on the other side"? i understand we need 22-25% equity, but where do you get the 5-1 ratio? thanks,

[@stefancopicuk]

What should JJ be doing on this flop?

[@danielhurst8863]

Didn't stop in time before reveal, and now my poker soul screamed NOOOOOO. Basic rule, do not play in a game where the absolute amount involved means you won't play good basic poker for fear of losing money, as that is the fastest way to lose money in poker.

[@AlexTway-j4u]

2nd fastest

[@eugenesis8188]

​@@AlexTway-j4uwhats the fastest then?

[@derekbundy4631]

I appreciate the honesty. We’ve all been there

[@webguy943]

I havent

[@tipsy09]

the guy mucks and bart starts looking around like an earthquake just went off

[@jacobbirkenfeld9261]

Good call-in! Spots close and sometimes hard to determine which side of the coin your on in the moment. (Until the caller reveals the “wrinkle” in this hand….)

[@syst3mov3rride]

I spit my cereal out when he said "i mucked" @12:49😂

[@webguy943]

I died 😂

[@nicholassmith6701]

I am saying this in a nice way...... This is exactly why you need to play at stakes you are comfortable at. This dude was scared $. The fact it was a 72 game makes this call even worse

[@jgod9788]

i think the main problem is that if u are not calling the flop jam then u shouldn’t cbet the flop and should just realize your equity by checking back, there’s basically no hand which would fold to your 25% cbet in a 4b pot, which means your cbet here does not achieve anything but pouring money into the sea.

[@webguy943]

Perfect example of a guy that doesnt know how to play poker.

[@Gos1234567]

Only thing a 25% cbet does is maybe induce bluff shoves which have to be called of course. Madness to bet/fold.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

4:21 “my plan was to flop a pair and go all in”. Why not plan to flop trips, or Broadway or a boat?

[@7betJesus]

AK preflop either just call or rip based on stack depth

[@jamespearson00]

Agree. Thats how I would play AK pre. It plays far better post flop than preflop.

[@Yakivegas]

I love the caller’s plan😂😂

[@qazzaqstan]

tbf had he followed through and just hit the A or K hand plays out very different. Clearly great plan, spotty on the execution. :P

[@Yakivegas]

@@qazzaqstan plus we’ve all had that “plan” 😅😅 the guy was just not comfortable…

[@GotoyourhomeBall]

Agree with 400 pre (as we would with AA,KK) Flop is a jam it’s not even close. The pseudo induce/25% pot/fold to a raise, is a mathematical crime.

[@qazzaqstan]

truthfully given it is a 72 game I probably check back flop assuming I don't jam pre. I agree though that you can't do a 25% bet there, unless you want to play unbalanced with your value (which you probably can in that spot, but I'm not sure jamming wouldn't be better)

[@britishbulldogish]

You absolutely have to jam 120BB's pre in this configuration. Picking up $300 pre is a great result PLUS you can get folds from hands like 99-JJ, this being a loose game makes a jam even better because you can get called by hands you're dominating.

[@Stockhandle123]

99-JJ is never folding to the 120 bb jam. That's silly to even suggest.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

@@Stockhandle123you think most players are calling 99 to a cold 4-bet jam for 120BBs? I guess it depends on hero’s table image but that seems unlikely to me.

[@MrTjthorso]

​@@Stockhandle123in live poker, 99-JJ is absolutely being folded to a 4bet jam almost always, especially if it's cold.

[@Stockhandle123]

@@MrTjthorso lol not for a 120 bbs. It's snapped

[@qazzaqstan]

@@Stockhandle123 I'm not so sure it would get snapped off (though it also being a 72 game makes it more likely) price is pretty bad and equity isn't great against a standard 4-bet range.

[@Jermo484]

I get folding because hes basically only getting exactly the right odds to call, so it's just a variance tolerance thing. Except with the 7/2 game on, you have to call.

[@EfficientRVer]

Correct. "Getting exactly the right odds" means it doesn't matter whether you call or fold. Just because you're allowed to place a bet on a roulette wheel which has no 0 or 00, doesn't mean you have to. Breakeven bets are breakeven bets.

[@Jermo484]

@@EfficientRVer uh, yes, I know. Which is literally the entire point of my post. If he's taking a shot at a bigger game and there's no EV difference between a fold and a call, he should fold. That, again, ignored the fact that it's the 7/2 game and that they may know he's taking a shot, both of which weight it towards a call, but in a vacuum it's irrelevant, so fold if playing bigger than normal.

[@webguy943]

Even if u showed me AA im calling off my stack cuz at least i got some chance of winning vs mucking 0% chance of winning.

[@Jermo484]

@@webguy943 what..?

[@clementl.784]

If 3-better is a nit: FOLD. Else: SHOVE. End of the hand.

[@tipsy09]

oh yeah. i learned this years ago. in really loose games, AK is such a glorious hand lol. even AQs heck even AJs, KQs is a sexy hand in a very loose game, i even get turned on when i see QJs in these games.

[@1312Mork2]

Speak to your therapist​@@tipsy09

[@xhawks8096]

@@tipsy09bruh

[@1312Mork2]

Dude is an indian. There are no nits from India 😂❤❤

[@kentjones7080]

@@1312Mork2truer words have never been spoken!

[@tippychips574]

Definitely going with this preflop based on 3 bettor profile

[@sneakkyz3696]

Shoving is the only play that makes sense. That or just call. But really all in is the play most the time in this spot. And it’s a drawing hand so might as well just scoop the dead money.

[@thaThRONe]

I hate the 200 dollar bet. It looks weak especially against a splashy guy that will easily put you to the test.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

I could see definitely taking that sizing with AA/KK? Might not be “correct” from a theory standpoint but with the SPR less than 1 it doesn’t seem that out there.

[@williamr4053]

@@JohnSmith-nx7zjI’ve done the same. Bet small to look weak and then call their jam with a strong pair or flopped set. To be honest, the call of $400 by the villain already put what $800-900 in the pot. The flop really doesn’t matter anymore from a STP ratio standpoint. If you’re not willing to call or rip on the flop, then why raise preflop? Just call or fold. No point even making it $400. This is a situation of scared money don’t make money. No one knows what your hand is other than yourself. Like the caller said, he was desperate to hit a pair, because the game was too big, and when he didn’t, the villain put him to the test. $500 and he rips preflop all day. $1200 is a different story and he played like it. Live and learn.

[@Gos1234567]

If you are definetly going to Call a shove then it’s smart to induce a bluff,but this guy did it without knowing what to do which is not good

[@predwards8941]

And the $30 on top!? 🤣 that’s mint

[@RonnieJamesOsbourne]

As previously mentioned, this could have been completely avoided if he just 4-bet jammed pre... Esepcially with his stack size.

[@SerErryk]

Ooof. Having to pay the $30 bounty on top made me lol. 😅

[@zHop3]

Guy is just playing in too high of stakes for himself. Sounds like he knew what is correct but wasn’t willing to risk the money when the time came

[@donbdoe5798]

LMFAO BRO GOT WRECKED

[@mtgoxsucks435]

Best advice above all. If you are afraid of the stakes, do not play in the game. This one made me sick.🤮

[@pot_kivach160]

I was gonna get sick, too... then I quickly realised: don't take it personal, boy! And..ever since then, I never get sick of KZbin poker callers.

[@robw9963]

Just like the pocket Kings hand, this is the possibly the worst played AK on every street.

[@webguy943]

I wanna play against that guy

[@ShortyDawg]

72 game being on makes this a jam pre.

[@danielmeuler2877]

This is mainly why I have been reluctant to go up stakes even though I had a Very successful 2023 and as well into this year (Although not able to play as much) But now My local card room is back and Im not travelling out of town to play. But, I figure you have to Sink or Swim some time

[@ajback2917]

How does the pre flop work 9 handed even if UTG+1 is actually first to act after straddle 3 calls and then HJ is the raiser?

[@chefmikeankh6434]

How did you count those outs? And come up with those odds Bart? Can you go more in detail?

[@jmaessoan1]

Lol at the graphic

[@GetMeThere1]

Jamming pre-flop also prevents any intrigue from 7-2 hands.

[@kevinboock7143]

@crushlivepoker if you jam pre, doesn’t that absolutely scream AK?

[@EllieBanks333]

It's tough playing this shallow. I think the caller was just out of his depth. I'd probably have jammed pre here. It's just so easy for AKo to be weak on the flop, especially when hero is so shallow after his 4 bet pre. Worst mistake here, of several, was betting 200 on the flop.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

When it comes to flop decision I feel like AA is unlikely. If V decides to trap with AA pre, why would he check-shove flop? Just continue to trap. If hero checks behind on turn V can still jam rivers easily. Feels much more likely to be a lower overpair that figures they can’t get away on this board if hero has AA/KK and so might as well get it in vs hero’s AK.

[@pennywise4843]

Slam dunk call.

[@paulpena5040]

I honestly don't know why they're having a conversation about this hand after villain's jam on the flop. Even if I give villain the tightest range of 99+ and only AK as the unpaired hand Hero still has 30% equity and only needs 23%. This is a simple math decision.

[@kennethbattaglia2994]

Nearly same thing happened to me. I jam at the end villain wakes up with pocket aces

[@tipsy09]

ever since i started watching Bart's videos i say the word "configuration" a lot now. maybe i'll start saying "config"

[@gabrielrockman]

When the four bet is so tiny, you're getting called by almost his entire range, even though you have position.

[@alanrice7410]

Let’s say that you get JJ and your opponent gets QT and you put $10 into the pot for a $20 pot with one person in the pot. The board comes up QT4. Your opponent bets $10 with his double pair. Even though you believe your opponent has a Q or an overpaid, you call with the idea that you are getting 3-1 pot odds and argue that it would be a much bigger mistake to fold and be wrong than call and be wrong. This is a huge fallacy because there is the turn and the river that you are going to have to play. If your opponent continues betting 1/2 the pot, you will be calling $10 on the flop, $20 on the turn and $40 on the river for a total of $70 to see the hand through but be a giant underdog. If you won the hand, you would only win $90. The true odds you would be getting would only be about 1.22-1 plus you would lose 8 times as much money on the hand than if you folded on the flop. If your opponent made a pot sized bet, it would be much worse. You would be calling $20 on the flop, $60 on the turn and $180 on the river to call multiple pot sized bets. In this case, your true odds would only be slightly less, about 1.08-1 but you would lose 26 times the amount of money you would have lost if you folded on the flop. It is an absolutely horrible play to call down the flop and turn with a marginal hand and then fold to a 1/2 to 3/4 pot sized bet on the river in most situations. The person should have either folded on the flop or called the river bet if they were going to stay in.

[@tuomashanninen184]

Scared money doesnt win

[@JamesTessier-j6v]

Understand all the tough comments on the none Flop push, but that's a sick jam with 72c in that spot. The Jammer must think he is going to call the 600 left. I know I would never expect a fold

[@JamesTessier-j6v]

I mean does he ever jam AA in that spot, I think the $200 cbet would have more of a frequency

[@kidsenior]

BTO (Bart Theory Optimal) is always +EV. trust me

[@sneakkyz3696]

Holy shit this guy is not supposed to be in this game 😂. Butchered the entire hand. Gotta just jam pre flop with that dead money

[@qsdailydose8970]

3x raise pre and jam flop regardless

[@jason23arnold]

I live in North Alabama, how do I get invited haha

[@WokeSteve]

Scared money.

[@TheBarkanMethodofHotYoga]

Cause it’s a big game for him …I know the feeling

[@330miggs]

15" POKER HAAAAARRRRDDD

[@jarrodfulton]

Yikes 😬

[@webguy943]

I screamed at the screen when he said he folded WTTFFFFFFFF. 😂😂😂😂 Stop over thinking it. Even if he has KK here u still got an ace. This is a sigh n then auto call situation. Even if u had a 5% chance of winning, this is STILL a call cuz if u muck villain wins 100% 1900 wow.

[@njacobdekelaita6198]

Good fold you know its a blank turn and deuce in the river

[@EfficientRVer]

Yes, the caller made what is marginally a mistake, but I think there is a factor which makes it not as bad a mistake as a mistake in the opposite direction. People over-emphasize the "scared money" aspect of what is a really close call vs fold situation mathematically. Even if you're not the least bit scared about the absolute amount of money, sometimes it is better to simply take the lower-variance path, for better bankroll stability. Folding was the lower variance path to the same long-term EV, if he needed 23% for calling and folding to be equal, breakeven, and he was getting 23%. The last time I checked, risking a pile of extra money just to end up with the same EV as by not risking it, was NOT a good habit to get into. Of course if his real EV was 28% due to a wild villain, 7-2 game, his table image being that he could maybe be pushed off a hand, and so forth, then it was not "all other things being equal" and he simply missed a +EV call. An admonition for anyone following my advice to consider reducing variance in situations like this, is to pay very careful attention to how often you do it against whom, and who is present at the table, and whether they can figure out that's what you're doing. Once you get a table image of "in close situations, he folds to reduce variance" then you are going to get pushed around a lot. Which has its own advantages, when you have the nuts and want to take someone to Value Town, as compensation for people knowing how to put you in a situation where you too predictably fold. You do need to somewhat balance and randomize your close decisions, but I'll stand by my basic assertion that the average player runs across tons of close decisions, where they have the opportunity to pick and choose which ones are a good opportunity to reduce the variance in their results. I'm almost thinking that villain would have played AA and 72 the same way on that flop, exactly because the line would put hero in the blender. Sort of a terrible thing to do mathematically, to play a hand the same way where you want a fold as where you want a call when giving over 3:1. But never underestimate the joy that wild players get from throwing you into the blender. It makes them feel like a poker genius when you don't know what to do.

[@webguy943]

Hero pot comitted himself yet somehow folded. Ridiculous.

[@adamhuey]

Just quit poker now :D

[@teeraw-vt5gc]

If youre terrible at poker and playing ~100bb just 4bet jam your AK the EV will be similar and you wont get the chance to butcher postflop.

[@ChrisM-wv4gs]

As soon as you start thinking about absolute value you need to find a smaller game

[@travistowell7149]

these thumbnails 🤣

[@stevenundisclosed6091]

This guy needs to stick to smaller games until he builds his bankroll.

[@SilvrSeven]

Sick to my stomach

[@mkader2494]

omg!

[@theofilosgougoulas8549]

terrible fold , bad play...even if he checks flop , i think its a call

[@Mr.Muckington]

I Bet 220 flop and snap

[@superfreeeeeak]

autsch

[@danbreilin9169]

He's completely wrong. Consciousness exists independent of brain activity. People have been brain dead/ flat lined brain activity and have had NDEs near death experiences.

[@aylmao1230]

What

[@Stockhandle123]

@@aylmao1230btain dead play

[@jackriverspoker2787]

Mardi Gras Charleston, WV or Cherokee, NC in east TN. Middle, TNwpuld be Caesar’s Southern Indiana. West Tennessee would be horshoe Tunica.

[@pot_kivach160]

flop: getting 3:1, bla, bla...you're not gonna get anything if you're behind here. and how cannot you be behind...with A high!! Unless V is jamming with 82o?!

[@pot_kivach160]

13:26 72cc