The Auto Industry On The Eve Of Destruction - Autoline After Hours 471

SPECIAL GUEST: Paul Eichenberg, Paul Eichenberg Strategic Consulting
TOPICS:
09:09 - The Transition to the New Automotive Industry
41:11 - Doctor Data
43:30 - First Half Sales In Review: Meh.
52:10 - The Model S Debuted in 2012. And Elon Isn’t Going to Refresh It?
1:07:13 - Post-Show Discussion: Viewer Questions
PANEL:
- Joe White, Reuters
- Gary Vasilash, Automotive Design & Production
- John McElroy, Autoline.tv
INSTAGRAM: / autolinenetwork
TWITTER: / autoline
FACEBOOK: / autolinenetwork
WEBSITE: www.autoline.tv

[@davedyer3654]

All this discussion just confirms that legacy manufacturers are years behind Tesla

[@macioluko9484]

Absolutely! They were hoping that the Elon Musk Tweet scandal would bury Tesla...

[@electrictroy2010]

2 Tesla cars autopiloted into a concrete barrier in California. Exact same location (one death and one nearmiss as the second driver reacted in time). I don’t need a car that wants to commit suicide with a concrete barrier .

[@electrictroy2010]

If the ICE makers like Toyota, Volkswagen truly focused on EV production, the Tesla company would disappear (like happened to early Best-selling computer companies Atari, TI, and Commodore). Toyota/Volkswagen have billions of stored-away dollars (and actual profits) versus Tesla’s zero savings .

[@macioluko9484]

electrictroy2010 So that’s it! I guess with their stored away billions Toyota and VW will easily catch up... And these phantom billions I’m sure These companies will create far superior vehicles... Dream on.

[@macioluko9484]

electrictroy2010 In both instances the investigation concluded that it was driver error. The driver did not pay attention to the road as the autopilot feature requires.

[@zacharypernikliyski4830]

People are switching from Prius to Tesla Model 3 my family is prime example

[@interrogateme]

Me too!

[@Chris-ie9os]

Hehe; 'Prime example'? Pun intended? :D

[@MarkLLawrence]

I wish more would, the current Prius isn't just ugly, it's fugly.

[@huskydogg7536]

Me too!

[@gerrycrisostomo6571]

Great choice and great move! Congratulations guys!

[@ultrastoat3298]

For me this is the point when Autoline is finally waking up to everything a lot of us have already known for years. Monroe couldn't hammer it into their heads, and they actually like him a lot. But this guest was basically able to layout for them whats going on and they finally get it. So going forward, I expect a lot less shit talking about EVs and especially Tesla. EVs are here, people want them, we are going to get them, suck it up. - Millennial who bought his last ICE vehicle 5 years ago.

[@electrictroy2010]

2 Tesla cars autopiloted into a concrete barrier in California. Exact same location (one death and one nearmiss as the second driver reacted in time). I don’t need a car that wants to commit suicide with a concrete barrier .

[@electrictroy2010]

ALSO it’s apparent you didn’t watch Montoe’s Last two AAH videos where he praised Tesla’s electronics & Tesla’s move into China..... it’s funny how people like you ignore the PRAISE and only focus on the negative. Like insecure little child .

[@theevermind]

Is the fact that people want EVs the reason that their market share is 1% or 2%, and the majority of those sales are Teslas? Or is it that people want the _Tesla_ brand? If it's the brand & image that Tesla built, then you have to consider that factor separately from EVs in general.

[@ultrastoat3298]

dMb When cars first started getting made, at some point only 1% had cars and everyone else had horses. And most of that 1% were ford Model Ts. Difference here is that a car is way way better than a horse. While an EV is a lot better than an ICE vehicle, the gap is smaller. In fact it’s small enough that if you make a bad enough EV.... it’s actually not better than an ICE car. And most EVs have been bad... intentionally so.

[@sat7755]

I think you are confused. The only auto pilot so far installed on Tesla is driver assisted, which means that the driver must be vigilant at all time, and ready to take over if in danger situation.

[@toptobottom247]

I knew the auto culture was changing when I saw yesterday that Enterprise Rental Car has added Tesla to their fleet at $80.00 per day.

[@alexanderhamilton8585]

is that all? Where? I"ll go get one right now. I mean it.

[@tomdewey9690]

What a fascinating discussion! The whole auto industry will be completely restructured.

[@frankspeaking2630]

Tesla S & X are moving to the one production line to allow for Model Y and increased Model 3 production. The big constraint for all manufacturers is Batteries and Batteries and Batteries, Tesla can delay any update of S &X and allow the volumes to taper a little to allow more batteries for the other models. Also the reason the Semi has not been produced commercially, batteries

[@robinb8230]

Change in industries can come very quickly. It was not long ago that the big three cell phone companies were Nokia, Motorola, and Blackberry when one outsider, Apple, came in and quickly destroyed all three. The Motorola cell phone division was destroyed in 18 months. Same thing could happen in the auto industry. The rust belt might get a whole lot more rusty before this is over.

[@DBlock5566]

To be fair, substituting a small device like a cellphone goes way quicker because of easier and higher production rate. Trying to kill an established ICE company will not go nearly as fast because producing cars even at teslas unprecedented pace wont put enough of a dent in their sales numbers to have them running on lifesupport. It will take at least another 3/4 years for some of them to totally dry up

[@DocWolph]

And look at Apple now, they are the far removed second fiddle to Samsung, Google, and such. Even then Motorola and Nokia still make and sell phones. Blackberry is mostly software right now. Tesla is Apple, and it will not be much longer for them to be shoved to the back of the proverbial bus and they will not really upend many of the other, if any of the big, car makers. In fact, if not for Govts getting involved in ways they should not, for reasons that were specious to begin with, those car makers would not really have responded.

[@frankspeaking2630]

@@DocWolph If I may refer you to an article about Tesla Seats - actually far more than just seats, also including important indicative factoids missed by others because they don't look for them. cleantechnica.com/2019/04/22/teslas-seat-heaven-home-of-teslas-cloud-like-seats/ Includes a Quote from Mark Tarpenning (one of Tesla's original founders ) in a presentation he made many years ago which is still so accurate (First Comment links to a very poor quality KZbin copy of the presentation) To Quote "one of the points he highlighted was that automakers had been gradually outsourcing more and more of their work for decades. His core message was that their expertise had largely been pruned down to engines - and sticking the different pieces of the automobile together. The most important takeaway of that was that it was very hard for automakers to shift to an electric future due to gas/diesel engine technology being: their core competency, their main area of competitiveness, where execs built their careers, and where much of the companies’ IP and capital investments had been sunk. However, it seems to me there are broader ramifications of that outsourcing. As indicated above, seat production eventually shifted to a semi-monopolistic trio. That limits automakers’ options as far as constantly customizing seats based on their needs and owner feedback. It also doesn’t provide them much opportunity for finding cost savings - that’s in the hands of the suppliers.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

@@DBlock5566 The minute the consumer sees an EV that's almost as cheap to buy and much cheaper to run (use the difference in running cist to fund the difference in price) they will want to buy one. From that moment, any ICE car in the segment won't sell. It's "dieselgate car parks" all over again. The Manufacturers have to jump before that happens.

[@DBlock5566]

@@rogerstarkey5390 it would be devastating for the world economy if that happens. I am hoping maxwell wont be such a big over night increase to make ICE cars look 20 times worse.

[@touchdownraiders2009]

Elon did it. The end of the ICE car is inevitable.

[@V0YAG3R]

touchdownraiders2009 And Islam is a religion of peace 👌🏻

[@electrictroy2010]

I remember the same was said about trains 70 years ago (they will all be electric). And yet only the northeast uses electric trains... everywhere else in the US is still diesel .

[@andrepoon]

For someone who appears to not like Islam, you appear pretty keen to give them your oil dollars... what’s with that??

[@MrBlueTimes]

@@electrictroy2010 diesel trains do use electricity, they r hybrids the diesel engine Powers a battery that powers electric motors. Diesel directly cannot produce enough power to operate train

[@electrictroy2010]

Diesel trains are no more “electric powered” than my Civic Hybrid..... the hybrid runs on gasoline and the train runs on diesel. Neither vehicle has a plug to run off the electrical grid .

[@hornprof46]

Model S just won the Motor Trend Best Car of the past 70 years. "No vehicle we've awarded , be it Car of the Year, SUV of the Year, or Truck of the Year, can equal the impact, performance, and engineering excellence that is our Ultimate Car of the Year Winner, the 2013 model S." They said 2013 because that was the year that it was Car of the Year

[@V0YAG3R]

Michael Morrow Best car of the past 70 years. And Islam is a religion of peace 👌🏻

[@electrictroy2010]

When cutting-off the head of the non-believers, do it as peacefully as possible .

[@electrictroy2010]

OTHER WINNERS: 1996 Dodge Caravan 2004 Toyota Prius 1955 Chevrolet Bel Air 1949 Cadillac Series 62 Sedanette 1972 Citroen SM 1968 Pontiac GTO 1986 Mazda RX-7

[@electrictroy2010]

2 Tesla cars autopiloted into a concrete barrier in California. Exact same location (one death and one nearmiss as the second driver reacted in time). I don’t need a car that wants to commit suicide with a concrete barrier .

[@hornprof46]

electrictroy2010 I’ll let you keep your AMC Pacer

[@wadafruit]

24:20 What in the world is this guy saying. Does he not know Tesla knows how to make a profit on their cars. Don't know if I misunderstood his statement.

[@BjorckBengt]

Yes, they believe the MSM bullshit about Tesla "financial problems". Here we have a company that follows the text book of how to disrupt an industry by investing everything in growth and they expect them to show profit and pay dividends like hundred year old companies!

[@dadiggaman]

Tesla wasn't mentioned until 21 minutes into the show. I almost felt like it was deliberate. Once they opened the Tesla bottle they couldn't stay away from Tesla. Every hurdle they mentioned that the legacy automakers need to get over, Tesla has already cleared. EV are 2% of the US market with Tesla being most of that. When EVs hit 5-7% you'll start seeing some serious problems at the legacy automakers with profits declining.

[@earlpottinger671]

And before it was only 1%, then before that it was less than 1% and people in the auto business were laughing at Elon and Tesla ... where are they now?

[@BjorckBengt]

Interesting observation. Everybody starting to talk about EV's deliberately ignore Tesla even if they started the disruption and now totally owns the EV future.

[@electrictroy2010]

I think Tesla will wind-up the same as Atari or Commodore once the big boys like VW and Toyota start building EVs. Both A and C were successful until Microsoft flexed it’s muscle, and then they went bankrupt. Tesla wuill face the same fate If VW and Toyota Focus their billions of dollars towards EV manufacturing .

[@shepherdsknoll8]

electrictroy2010 , you are so behind the times.

[@edwardhalpin7503]

@@electrictroy2010 With Microsoft, there was much more gov. intervention than meets the eye

[@toptobottom247]

I can't believe I missed the answer to the June Sales Decline question. NOW YOU KNOW just covered that a couple of weeks ago. I feel as Paul was talking Autoline guys were in shock and didn't know that information because they are in denial.

[@alexanderhamilton8585]

that's exactly what was happening, which is why this is my favorite episode.....oh, have you seen this? it's hilarious. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qZabiIeBZq6sppo

[@Coltn3125]

AND as of this month they are ALL still in decline except Tesla and they have a 43% increase.

[@dewiz9596]

In the “peak auto” discussion. . . consider that in the 1970s, an American-made care went from showroom to junkyard in an average four years. . . until the Japanese came in and really disrupted the business.

[@mangos2888]

Yes! 3 years later, I've been exclusively Japanese since 2003.

[@ztirffritz252]

This is a great episode. Really nailed the uncertainties in the auto industry. The existing players have an albatross about their necks. The new entrants don’t have the resources to grow fast enough. Ford looks like they’re stumbling a bit but I think they’ll come out of this ahead of the competition. Investing in Rivian is a great idea.

[@SydneySewerat]

I agree, insightful, balanced, level headed. I'm an aussie and very impressed with this discussion, really hope the US succeed with the inevitable transition with its auto industry. At least it's been led by a US firm in Tesla. My daughter's friend's father just got a special Shelby edition of the mustang, which have sold like hot cakes here in Oz. What's going to be the EV equivalent? Get to it, Ford, GM, Chrysler etc.

[@ztirffritz252]

@@SydneySewerat I believe Ford actually have plans to produce an EV Mustang. www.motor1.com/news/350719/ford-mustang-ev-concept/

[@brandoYT]

@@SydneySewerat model 3 Performance - check the specs & prices - gas savings tip the scale along with drag times Track?? we shall see. Most don't care as long as they win the stop light/passing times.

[@Coltn3125]

The biggest problem is NONE of them even understand how to do it yet. They STILL outsource almost every part. There is NO vertical integration at all. They are still all stuck on outdated 90 year old ideas on wiring. Tesla is the ONLY EV that talks to the chargers. Enabling them to show on their app what chargers are in use. All of them outsource their batteries. The list goes on and on.

[@Northbaylandscaping]

1:27:55 I bet the sound of a Porsche can be replicated and replayed better through an external speaker of an electric vehicle. The future EV you will have Porsche sounds on Monday, Ferrari on Tuesday, Kitt on Wednesdays etc.....

[@jamesleonardpanes9915]

Has anyone put a Tesla drive-train into an 82 Trans-Am yet?

[@magallon643]

Have you heard of the New Stellantis Charger Prototype,the company formerly know as Dodge their Car a 120Db Speaker outside, so it mimis a Gas engine Sound,since the Car is Fully electric.

[@billsdogsinaz]

Just heard the part about how few Bolts have been sold. Have you ever driven a Bolt. GM got it backwards. They should have electrified the Corvette first. The Bolt is about as boring as an I3 only junkier. Once again the Vette will be eclipsed by the Tesla Roadster V2.0

[@alexanderhamilton8585]

I have a BOLT and it HAULS ASS. Everyone I've ever given a test drive to always does that JERK GIGGLE when I punch it. I'm the quickest car on the road unless there's a Tesla lurking nearby.

[@elprimeracuariano]

OEM definitely missed the Tesla writing on the wall. It's was always easier to make super electric car cost effective than cheap. They focused too much on the credits and savings aspects than the "cool factor" electric drive trains bring to the table.

[@bluezcluez315]

GREAT AAH, very impressed by Paul and his insights. Reminds me of the narrative from energy godfather Amory Lovins: “Firms hampered by old thinking won’t be around,” Lovins said, because the pace of transformation is set by insurgents not incumbents. He said investors “flee” before customers, because capital markets sniff out disruption. When an industry is headed for the “toaster”, investors don’t wait for the toast, they invest in successors. "

[@yevgenygans6614]

Just went from a f150 lariat to model 3. Best vehicle I have ever owned or driven. Once you test drive you buy. End of story.

[@DBlock5566]

I got a little secret for you experts on how to make money on EVs in the longrun: vertical integration! Wont take too much longer until every last suplier will milk all OEMs on already scarse parts for EVs. They will make sure they get their cuts on the transformation. If tesla keeps on growing and suplies itself in ever growing quantities, there will be nobody catching up to them. They are in the middle of a huge snowball effect.

[@annroses11]

Sorry, companies like Xerox decades ago got into the supply-on-demand (no vertical integration) to build complex copiers. Vertical integration doesn't make or break a company. I can see why vertical integration might work for a company that can't make good (highly detailed) mechanical drawings for outside companies. This seems to be the case with Tesla body parts being matched up with poor fit … don't have engineers that can convey information; seen this in later years of my engineering days.

[@DBlock5566]

@@annroses11 later years engineering my ass...You played basketball in the 60s...

[@BjorckBengt]

Vertical integration is one of the key disruptions and necessary in the early phase of a technology shift. Henry Ford understood this. These guys, while in the middle of it fail to see it. Strange!

[@annroses11]

@@DBlock5566 Ya, funny, Bill Russell the basketball player also lived in the same town I did in Reading, MA; not far from my home. My family moved away before the basketball player arrived back in the 1950's. The towns people were not very welcoming towards him, so he soon moved away.

[@stanRmeyer]

How funny you guys are! Talking about all these things but constantly avoiding using the word Tesla! Hahaha!...

[@frankpeelen4867]

I also noticed it took them almost 30 minutes to first mention Tesla. But as soon as they mentioned it once, they kept going on about Tesla.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

I made it 27 minutes. Then at least one adopted "sucking a lemon face".

[@alexanderhamilton8585]

I LOVE WATCHING THEM SQIRM about how Tesla is kicking ass and making everything they know about cars completely obsolete. It's like the SAIL MAKERS looking at the first steam ship.

[@billsdogsinaz]

When it comes to the robotaxi and styling changes it's better if the car never changes. Remember the Checker Marathon? Taxi's get dented. They are easier to repair when the body panels are interchangeable from year to year.

[@ramblerandy2397]

Very nuanced interesting conversation this week. Of course, any open conversation regards a future is interesting. I think the Autoline hosts are beginning to see things more clearly now. Bear in mind, this stuff excludes the internal combustion engine. Intrigued that China is done with new ICE by 2025. And honestly so should we all.

[@VivCollins]

Looks like the auto industry supply chain is 80% too long, that is going to be a harsh contraction for every one

[@elonmusk3215]

GM IS DOOMED! should have invested when Tesla was telling the whole world to invest into giga factories of there own!! No sympathy for FORD AND GM

[@theevermind]

Tesla opened up their patents. If Tesla could be the battery supplier to the world, they would jump at it. That means any auto company can simply use Tesla's tech & buy their batteries. No investment necessary. However, car companies want something that differentiates their products, so they are loathe to buy drivetrains from a competitor. But if they have to choose between being "doomed" and just buying the tech, we all know they will simply buy it.

[@yosam5184]

The "iCar" (what I've been calling it for years) can't crash, won't speed, can't be stolen, can't be modified, and self drives, self maintains, just means basic safe transportation from A to B.

[@enlightenthis3749]

And in the end, who controls where you can go...wake up. My god

[@macioluko9484]

@26:08 ?!?! Are you serious? You mean you had to have a game plan for it in 2013 when the Model S came out and mopped the floor with the competition. in 2019 the competition is still clueless. @27:05 Yeah! Or close up shop. Because nobody with more than 2 functioning gray cells will want their ICE crap any longer. @28:05 Saying that Tesla has "sort of" figured it out is like saying Netflix has sort of figured it out... @29:15 It's not a completely different animal, it's a different planet. On Tesla's planet inefficiencies and unnecessary parts and teams do not exist. OTA updates fix issues and clients can request improvements to their vehicles through social media. @48:30 The Prius is falling because it has had a 22 year run and the small, gradual improvements in it are joke for the 2+ decades of time it's been around! @49:20 I hope you're kidding. It will be next year at the latest! @50:20 Hybrids are dead. Why on earth would you want not one but two architectures where things can go wrong under your hood? They were a nice bridge to EVs but their day is gone. EVs have proven to be effective and able to stand on their own with long range and with improvements over ICE in all other areas, especially safety. @59:50 In the VERY near future, owning a car outright will not be smart. You'll be able to hail an EV to your home or place of business or pub and it will be waiting for you outside in under 2 minutes with the song you're in the mood in playing as you pile in to a pre-set air temperature cab that will take you anywhere you want for roughly $0.20/mile. @1:01:15 Yeah! The publicly said as much already! @1:01:40 Yeah! And that's a great thing! Overall there may be less vehicles but their use will increase dramatically. This will decrease traffic jams, noise pollution and wear and tear of the road infrastructure. @1:14:00 Absolutely. After all, the companies that value the data would not get anything without our use. @1:17:20 Not only does every Tesla come with 8 cameras but the vehicles also come with a feature that gives tremendous value in accident reporting and insurance claims. @1:19:00 Because there are thousands of contracts and agreements, government subsidies and jobs at stake. @1:20:00 That 20 year timeline is a pure fantasy. Oh, they will be selling pickups in Montana in 20 years but they will all be electric. @1:34:00 Just another piece of evidence of the fact that the 45-50 hour work week is obsolete. These great advancements remind us that the goal of an economy is for the people in it to work less and enjoy the fruits of their labor. Politicians would have us believe that progress is evil because it eliminates jobs. OK then. Let's go back to the horse and buggy and create thousands of jobs!

[@IJustHitTheFan]

A THEORY... My guess is that the main reason Tesla isn't about to refresh the model S is that it's shifting focus to models 3 and Y for robotaxi duties. As Elon said, once full autonomous driving is available they will mainly sell cars to robotaxi fleets (or private customers willing to pay much much more than the current price). S and X are more expensive to produce but would be less useful as robotaxis than 3 and Y - so why invest in refreshing the product when in a couple of years its younger, smaller siblings will sell for higher prices than it does and bring in far higher profits than it does? Full autonomous will pretty much kill car ownership as we know it. And it will arrive far sooner than people realize

[@EnlightenedSavage]

That's not a theory that's a guess.

[@IJustHitTheFan]

@@EnlightenedSavage whatever. I think it's a rose .

[@ettorefieramosca5460]

Because they need to prove they are making profits

[@Coltn3125]

@@ettorefieramosca5460 Then you really don't understand the company. Most people think it is just another car company. You forget they have a supercharger network that is being put in at the moment and this does eat into profits but most people forget it is a HUGE asset. They also do powerwall, powerpack and Megapack batteries as well as solar panels and solar roof tiles. Not to mention all of the data collected for their autopilot is worth LOTS. The only reason because they are not "showing" profits is because they are expanding and putting all of their money back into the company instead of their shares.

[@ettorefieramosca5460]

@@Coltn3125 All carmakers made investments more than Tesla but they make profits. What you consider An advantage (a vertical business) was abandoned years ago from the other automakers. The supercharger for Tesla is a lost of money. Because they give for free what the others sell. Tesla business model is going to fail.

[@oystla]

If GM embraced electrification with conviction years back, they would have made a Tesla model 3 instead of the bolt, and they had won the future. Now they will loose.

[@oystla]

@B. Allen no I am not. But show me a better electric deal than Tesla model 3. And the savings in gas cost and maintenance for electric car makes it a no brainer.

[@electrictroy2010]

Tesla just raised the price to 40,000 so really NOT a great deal. I can buy a Fiesta or Mirage or Versa for 12,000 dollars (and pocket the other 28,000 for myself or gasoline) .

[@electrictroy2010]

PT Barnum was correct when he said it’s easy to separate people fr their money (because people make dumb financial decisions) .

[@oystla]

@@electrictroy2010 you compare fiesta with model 3? 😂🤣 Life is too short for a Fiesta you know 😉 And what if you end up in a collision. The safest car of the above is.....

[@theevermind]

*lose

[@rwodar9928]

Great show, this is excellent content. This just proves that monetization going forward of the car is going to zero, the future is transport as a service and only one company I know is positioned to make money from that.

[@enlightenthis3749]

TAAS Transportation As A System

[@enlightenthis3749]

How does a person protest when Govt.controls where you go?

[@johndonaldson5126]

Traditional car manufacturers have to cut ties with what they know best. They are inclined to use traditional manufacturing methods to build electric cars and they will continue to fail unless they change.

[@dwolff4127]

Name the last company that survived a disruption....disruption NEVER happens from within. IBM, ATT, Nokia, Kodak...ALL of them industry leaders...NONE of them ever returned to industry leaders once the disruption came from the outside. GM/BMW/VW...these are money making machines in ICE manuufacture. When the product they make loses appeal you don't remake the machine. You squeeze every last penny out of it then discard.

[@brandoYT]

AT&T, IBM doing fine - they changed

[@dwolff4127]

@@brandoYT They changed from being the industry leader to bit players. Microsoft and apple spawned modern $Trillion mkt cap companies. Google $800 billion. Alphabet $800 billion. ATT now $250 Billion and IBM at $125B who previously dominated all tech industry/communication shook out with very small % of the new industry.. I'm not saying all of legacy is going BK...I'm saying OF the survivors they will be only bit players as investment simply pulls out. They may even transition to energy storage.

[@rwess]

He who builds the best robotaxi wins. Car companies will fold all over the place soon. Individual driving enthusiasts can still have their steeds, but will pay through the nose for them.

[@bluezcluez315]

Also note the title rename of this AAH from ''Tech Impacts on Suppliers" to "The Auto Industry On The Eve Of Destruction". This is a little more than just an impact... Though I would use the term 'disruption' over 'destruction'.

[@ChainringTours]

TRADITIONAL Auto Industry, not the Auto Industry, is on the eve of destruction. There will still be cars, but the traditional players will be the ones who who go away as new players replace them.

[@bluezcluez315]

Gregg Germer hence why I think the term ‘disruption’ is more appropriate. It is a disruption to the way things have been done for 70+ years.

[@johndonaldson5126]

Prius is suffering because it is a sedan in a shrinking sedan market. Also our family has moved on to PHEV and won't go back to just a hybrid. A Prius spends a very high percentage of drives using the gas engine. A Volt or Clarity spends a very high percentage of drives using the electric motor. Volt/Clarity can double the MPG of a Prius.

[@electrictroy2010]

Volt is dead..... your only option now is a plug-in hybrid like the Prius Primr .

[@DavidJao]

This is absurd. A Model 3 is also a sedan in a dying sedan market, and it's doing super well. People are demanding good sedans. Give them a good product and they will buy it.

[@theevermind]

The Prius is a hatchback, not a sedan. And I believe its sales are suffering as much from its hideous looks as much as technology.

[@dlwatib]

When they got to the part about job losses, they forgot one thing: China isn't going to suffer those job losses to the same extent as the US and Europe. Their ICE car and truck industry is minuscule by comparison. They can afford to mandate a shift to EVs and the job losses won't be that great. That forces all the major international auto companies that compete in China to make the investment in EVs, and once they do they have to amortize it across all their markets in order to show a decent return on investment. The whole world is going EV whether we like it or not. The investments are going to bring the price of EVs down. Once EVs are cheaper than ICEVs, people will suddenly stop buying ICEVs, even without gov't mandates and subsidies. Total cost of ownership is already less for some people, but it's purchase price that most people focus on. Likewise with autonomy: the safety implications are just too compelling. When autonomous vehicles are 10x safer than manually driven vehicles, people won't even want to share the road with a manually driven vehicle, let alone buy one. The whole world is going autonomous whether we like it or not. The most politicians can do is mandate a useless driver to sit and supervise the AI. These forces are beyond the ability of any US politician to control. They can choose to go easy on the auto industry or not, it doesn't really matter. These disruptions have a timeline of their own and they can't do very much to change that timeline either way.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

They noted the "flat" market in Europe. Nobody figured out why. They're waiting for EV's.

[@_PatrickO]

Tesla will hire those americans. Tesla's goal is to make cars local to the region in that region. China giga will be making cars for china and the surrounding asian region. The US factory will make them for north america. A future european factory will make cars in the EU for the EU. The US will be fine, japan and korea are screwed right now because tesla isn't planning on building in those countries, but sells to them.

[@electrictroy2010]

I can buy a new ICE car for $11,000 or 12,000 (Fiesta, Versa or Mirage). Even the cheapest EV costs 3 times more & will never get as low in price as those gasoline cars I listed .

[@_PatrickO]

@@electrictroy2010 Link to a US dealer selling any of those for $12k new.

[@electrictroy2010]

Truecars.com lists all those ICE cars at 11 or 12 thousand dollars new. It’s a shame you didn’t do your research FIRST before buying a car. I got a new Ford Fiesta for just $11,500 .

[@vanceshaw3675]

Incredible show... discussion at a very high level. BRAVO.

[@stephendoherty8291]

the Germans and Japanese have done incremental fine tuning . The Golf is only updated every 3-4yrs and within that, its incremental bar perhaps cleaner engines. The Japanese did the same - how often was the Accord and Corolla updated style wise. Car makers have one big change- range. So better batteries will drive sales. Better incar tech might come from on air updates once the cameras and radars are built in.

[@james5360]

Volkswagen came out with the first gas gauge in 1962 not 1960. My first car was a 1961 bug which was the last bug to have a reserve valve so you knew to stop and get fuel. Once I forgot to return the valve to the main tank and had to push the car just over 3 miles to a closed gas station then had to wait 4 hours before they opened. Never made that mistake again.

[@curtisoien]

Stick with horse and buggies. Don't want to lose those jobs.

[@MrConor159]

The original self driving car

[@jryan1024]

This one has aged pretty well.

[@dwolff4127]

"wildcard" of vehicle longevity...STILL no one wants to say 500,000 miles. TAS reducing global sales to fractions of today as 1 vehicle replaces 6 in daily usage. True you burn through them much faster at 200 miles a day...what you aren't taking into account is the immediate mass exodus away from first ICE then ownership as the financials are proven.

[@electrictroy2010]

It’s always cheaper to Own rather than rent a piece of equipment (for customers) .

[@dwolff4127]

@@electrictroy2010 until it's not.

[@huskydogg7536]

Required watching for Tesla short sellers. Elon may be Twitter foolish but as far as the big picture goes he has his thumb on the future of the auto industry. Tesla's actions are dominating the discussion of these auto industry pros.

[@electrictroy2010]

If the ICE makers like Toyota, Volkswagen truly focused on EV production, the Tesla company would disappear (like happened to early Best-selling computer companies Atari, TI, and Commodore). Toyota/Volkswagen have billions of stored-away dollars (and yearly profits) to crush upstarts .

[@user-iw5de9ou6u]

this channel really up to date, whats the latest in auto industry, keep it up

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Hmmm.....?

[@BjorckBengt]

They are starting to understand the effects of a disruption that Tesla started 10 years ago!

[@brandoYT]

Aluminium casting companies - die casting - better switch to suspension parts? perhaps. Bolt 2019 Q1 & Q2 = 8,200 -> less than 20,000 for 2019 ?? Will Chevy drop the Bolt next ?? or some really good deals to support ZEV credits for SUV/trucks ??

[@danielc3453]

Caddilac and Corvette should be the EVs for GM.

[@stephendoherty8291]

Sales of new cars in Ireland were dwarfed by used imports from the UK (we drive RHD cars). Cheap sterling rates, falling UK car demand (Brexit) and falling sales of diesels in the UK means its often better value to buy a UK used car and pay the import duties . The Irish new car sales in 2018 were approx 71K while imports were 50k! (and few would be LHD cars if any). So if we divide this by 12 its 5,900 for new and imports 4,100! Note Dr Data- your June data is skewed. New cars are generally sold in Jan/Feb and July due to car reg plate changes which means few Irish buy cars in June.

[@stephendoherty8291]

Note Irelands car sales fell from 186K per yr (new) in 2008 to 32K in 2012 so we had a massive crash in sales till 2013

[@michaelmurray8416]

Elon Musk has already answered the money problem. It’s called robotaxis!!

[@elprimeracuariano]

Excellent chat as always. On peak car vs peak oil comparison, oil was a supply constraint. This is demand.

[@curmudgeon1933]

43:00. It's possible that the sales figures from Ireland are so low because in Europe, unlike the US, cars are not seen as a disposable commodity to such an extent. Cars are expensive items, and are kept for longer.

[@cassidybb10]

Fun to watch this again two years later. I really wish the show would go back to the studio version, with that pre roll chat.

[@mikewillis44]

If you pave over your whole state then the cars can travel more direct like planes and pedestrians and cyclist would be surface banned .The would travel in sort of drains running underground. Bury electric cables into the concrete for induction charging.

[@georgepelton5645]

John, I get what you mean that Chrysler buying AMC is the only example of a successful OEM to OEM M&A. However, in the early auto industry there were likely many examples. One ironic success was a little startup company stated by Walter Chrysler buying the much larger Dodge Brothers! 😀

[@zaphodbeeblebrox2817]

@ 1:29:50 imagine where GM would be if they hadn’t crushed the EV1

[@electrictroy2010]

EV1 was a bad car. Limited range (40 miles) using environmentally damaging batteries (Lead Acid or Nicad) and limited to just 2 seats like the Honda Insight G1 (that flopped) .

[@zaphodbeeblebrox2817]

@@electrictroy2010 bad car is your opinion, people loved the ev1 but they couldn't keep it. If GM had kept selling it and improving it, they would be where Tesla is now and Tesla might not have even started and I'd be driving around in a crappy chevy EV instead of a model 3

[@brandoYT]

Saturn CARS - GM stopped that too.

[@stanspb763]

These guys are so out of touch. They are careful to not mention the market leaders who are focusing on vertical integration. Buying subsystems that are common to many brands that do not differentiate except in exterior styling. The problem with buying external subsystems means costs are not decreasing with innovation or production improvements only benefit the supplier, not the car aggregator brands. Companies like Telsa which makes everything itself improves constantly each system and component so any improvement in component cost/performance goes to the bottom line of the brand. By next year Tesla margin per car will be over 30% and in two years will be close to 50%, unheard of in the industry. Its new computer is a completely new design and new processor style that is an order of magnitude increased speed. No other company has a competitive system regardless of the industry. Tesla's costs will continue to drop per vehicle while the brands that rely on buying subassemblies that only increase in cost over time. The old model that suppliers and brand expect to allow them to transition into BEV is obsolete and a decade behind. A lot of investment money now is really at risk by being far too late. Old thinking is killing all western corporations

[@alexanderhamilton8585]

In the 1920s, the United States Navy (and Army for that matter) was faced with what they thought was an existential crisis: The airplane. The Navy was quickly divided into officers who believed in the future of aircraft and those who didn't. The "Battleship vs. Aircraft" controversy dominated all wardrooms and offices where ever Naval officers met. Careers were ruined on both sides. Mostly on the aircraft side, let's be honest. It took Pearl Harbor to finally end that discussion once and for all. Now we have a similar thing: EV or ICE. It's fascinating to see these "Battleship officers" struggle to stay relevant.

[@slaven000]

Would be interesting to see you guys revisit these outlooks

[@huskydogg7536]

John kept asking what's gonna happen if ICE manufacturers have to turn to the much smaller margins of electrification. Clearly unless governments subsidize manufacturers either costs will have to come down thru innovation or prices will go up. Dealers will need to drop away and there's going to have to be a universal answer to unions and pensions which will be a weight around the leg of longtime OEM's.

[@BjorckBengt]

Tesla margins are much higher than for any ICE manufacturer. They are not showing a profit due to their rapid expansion but after that, profit can be much higher because the value of an EV is much higher with better performance, lower TCO and higher longevity while production cost is much lower due to simplicity, as long as you own your battery supply chain.

[@EnlightenedSavage]

There is a misunderstanding that there is no profits in EVs. Tesla makes 20% to 30% currently on their vehicles. They can do this because they are vertically integrated and making their own batteries. The legacy makers are dragging their feet and don't want to make the investment to make the profits.

[@irwincgemlich8341]

What are the implications for an auto maker who offers auto insurance -- like Tesla?

[@gabrielvargas6347]

I hate when they are a short mind, People are moving from Prius to 100% electric because now we have many good choices, Tesla 3, Bold, Nissan Leaf, etc.

[@markl7520]

Great discussion here.

[@captguitarj]

You guys are in such denial mode! I love hearing your "experts" speak about Tier 1 and new entries into the electrification/AI/Data without mentioning Tesla. Speaking of the Bolt, Ipace and Etron as if anyone is buying these cars. This show is such a joke and the only reason why I watch it is to see if Tesla has any real competition. I would suggest you either get a younger staff that really understands what is happening in the Transportation/Energy industry or you go offline. It's honestly embarrassing to watch this nonsense.

[@BjorckBengt]

They now understand that Tesla has a great product because Sandy has told them so. They have yet to understand the Tesla business model and we can expect that sometime around 2023 they will realise that vertical integration is a thing. Lol!

[@electrictroy2010]

THEY consistently say Tesla cars are the only EVs that have growing sales (while other EVs shrink). They are not dumb....... you just were not listening to previous shows .

[@MrConor159]

I think car sales might be up because dealers are buying up cars before the Irish October budget that will increase prices with higher vrt Sales are going to tank next year. Ev sales are improving year over year at a high rate.

[@rogerstarkey5390]

Saw an article last month, can't remember where, about 3 million Pickups in inventory, millions of ICE cars. Little mention in the press.

[@MrConor159]

@@rogerstarkey5390 I can't remember the last time I saw a pickup in Ireland

[@cedarlodgewisconsindells6612]

Gary talking about a murdered out mini is like John saying his quote was lit!

[@simonshum2054]

Corvette stingray is 5 years too late technically. Trying to beat a Ferrari when Ferrari is trying to get out from under. The interior is 10 years behind, check out Byton if you doubt and the inter phase with big data and self-driving has not even started yet. GM has introduced a classic car before it reaches the showroom. Test drive a Tesla you will get it.

[@sabretoothau]

Paul's insight is phenomenal.

[@markrowland1366]

Nice discussion.

[@AndrewBinning]

"Nobody is making a profit." Probably true for everyone except Tesla, and probably NIO. They could stop growing and just reap it in if they didn't have bigger visions.

[@yootoober2009]

@ 56:08 The Porsche Taycan (Jaguar and Audi too), are examples of OEMs who thought looks will always trump quality - "Tesla killers are just words for the uninformed". Now they're in hibernation waiting for batteries. By then, it will be Teslas' 10 Gigafactories who will own the EV batteries' supply. Even OEMs will have to go through teething pains.

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

1:03:00 Can't see any particular connection between peak oil and peak car. But FWIW peak oil is real-but it will be peak oil DEMAND.

[@brandoYT]

Battery plants will switch chemistry to solid state - OR just add solid state and keep up Li-Ion for tools, bikes, laptops etc... they will change if needed Tesla seat HAVE changed. WHEN/IF Model S gets a real competitor, then Tesla can up date. E-tron, EQC, I-Pace haven't mattered so far. Porsche? we shall see. Bleed red ink vs Invest/R&D. piss pour perspective 7 year advantage just the "platform"; then SuperChargers; then Full Self Driving - not purchase price only, but OPERATING COSTS. Model 3 stretch to get lower operating costs - how many drive enough to matter?

[@theevermind]

No doubt solid state is the next gen. The unknowns include how quickly can it come to market? And can they be made cheaper than Li-ion? They won't succeed in the market unless they can compete on cost.

[@phamnuwen9442]

1:19:44 I have no idea what he is talking about here. Nobody is going to buy ICE pickup trucks in 20 years. And what "subsidies" is this referring to? EV's are already cheaper than ICE cars on a TCO basis. Subsidies aren't necessary.

[@electrictroy2010]

I can buy an ICE for 12,000 dollars (Fiesta or Versa or Mirage). Even if I drive 200,000 miles my total cost for gasoline ($10,000) is less than the 39,000 plus Electricity Fees it currently costs to obtain the cheapest EV (Model 3) .

[@phamnuwen9442]

@@electrictroy2010 Fiesta vs Model 3? Ok, not exactly an apples to apples comparison, if you know what I mean. But yes, if you don't care at all about how much car you get, then you can probably get a small cheap city car with a lower TCO than any EV currently on the market. However, chances are you could build an equivalent city EV with current Tesla technology that is cheaper still, it just doesn't make sense right now because they're production limited with higher margin products.

[@ronaldgarrison8478]

Good typeface choice on your clock. Some of us notice these things.

[@mrm.5787]

Big Oil and Big Auto are not clueless, they are really in the hands of the share holders demand for growing revenue. This is not possible with big change.

[@brandoYT]

bail outs, bail outs, bali outs

[@mebran1193]

Bolt EV brought home a dishwasher and groceries in 1 trip

[@richardblais5232]

I'm not clear on how pick-up trucks in Montana are going to subsidize electric cars in California ? Does he mean that the fossil-fuel Industry will loose the subsidy that they received during the whole time they existed, or is that subsidy simply transferred to green energy production ? If that's what he means then I'm all for it ...

[@tigerdust542]

I NOTICED THAT THE USA WAS NOT ON THE LIST OF COUTIES THAT HAD A DECLINE IN CARS BECAUSE OF TESLA SALES OF 95.000 IN JUST THE 2nd QUARTER SO TESLA WOULD BUMP UP THE USA ON THE LIST ALSO ... SO WHY DID YOU NOT PUT IT ON THE LIST ??????

[@EnlightenedSavage]

You know the answer to that.

[@electrictroy2010]

THEY consistently say Tesla cars are the only EVs that have growing sales (while other EVs shrink). They are not dumb....... you just were not listening to previous shows .

[@earthwizz]

It's not legislation that will see the end of ICEVs by 2025, it's the economics. The current rate of battery tech improvement and cost reduction predicts EV price parity with ICEVs by then. Given the massive difference in maintenance and running costs, not to mention better performance, nobody in their right mind will be buying new ICEVs by 2025. China will be happy to mop up any unfulfilled demand. Even Tesla, growing at over 100% yoy as they are, won't be able to keep up with demand. Any western OEMs who aren't prepared for this will be Kodaked.

[@kens97sto171]

The question about the oil industry and why do we keep needing to drill for more oil.. it's like people don't realize that oil is used for other things besides gasoline and diesel fuel.. The big one is aviation jet fuel. That is a growing market, and there is no practical replacement for jet fuel in the electric scene. There is no battery or solar option that can power a aircraft that can carry 500 people at significant speed. You also have massive consumption on the manufacturing side, everything on the planet is made out of some form of plastic.

[@rickkay9548]

Better Plastics can be made without oil and the same goes for lubricants. Oil is a relic. Jet fuels don’t pollute as much as the massive number of cars and even the jet fuels are being replaced.

[@kens97sto171]

@@rickkay9548 Site some examples... Jet fuel being replaced by what?? As for lubrication.. no. Your way off. Nothing organic can handle the heat and stress of powerful machines. You think they're running hemp oil in a Model S drive reduction unit. Lots of heavy duty machines out there.. all need some form of lubrication. As for fossil fuel being a relic.. well it must be old, and not have been used for decades before it would be a relic. Since 98% of all vehicles are still fossil fueled, aircraft will be fossil fueled for decades at least to come. I'd say it's hardly a relic.... More like the vast majority power source of the world. 36% of electricity is from natural gas, another 30+% is from coal... So that means about 70% of the electricity to charge your EV came from fossil fuels anyways. Yes it's cleaner that way for sure. And I'm not debating that EV's are the future of land based vehicles.. within the next decade or so they definitely are. But relic.. LOLZ.. not really.

[@rickkay9548]

kens97sto171 biochemical and thermochemical conversion processes are well underway for about a decade. To date, four pathways have been approved for producing alternative fuels that meet the specifications necessary to be considered jet fuel while others are pending and have the same performance and high altitude specifications as kerosine and other fuels for smaller craft as well. This has been solved for the past decade and is is already in use. As for lubricants, it’s necessarily that traditional oil can’t be used, but how much and how often is the point. 150k mikes on a drive train vs every 7500 for an engine, is not even close. Completely synthetic lubricants and hydraulic replacements for extreme temperatures like almasol, monolec, and quinplex have been around for a while and surpass ff based ones for huge industrial uses. Since these oil distillate prices have essentially crashed, it was hard to remain cost competitive since only relatively few companies were doing the drop in replacements. And just because the majority of planes use FF doesn’t mean it’s the only way to do it. Replace relic with obsolete and the point stands. Since jet engines typically are designed to run for 10-15 years straight, and are designed to use very specific fuels, certain drop in replacements have seen the chicken and egg problem of price variability and testing feasibility as well as second source contracts that limit vendor choice. The fuels exist but entering that market it hard for these and many factors exist that limit when an older engine can start using new fuel types. The reason consumers have more choice is because they have no contracts on which vendor runs their cars. Airlines, not so much If you check the ASTM D7566 Annex for approved secondary jet fuels you will find FT-SPK, HEFA-SPK, FT-SPK/A and a few others already in production. My point is that we have the technical ability to get around most of these fossil fuel based issues. It’s like trying to push an ever growing boulder up a hill sadly. Let’s solve the bigger problem of cars first, then we can kick jets and such next.

[@debralivingston7298]

Do you know what the definition of stooge means? It means someone who does what other people want no matter how they feel about it. And I don't think I'll ever watch your channel again because all I see are stooges!

[@stp926]

Big Oil has seen the writing on the wall and is investing heavily in alternative energy solutions.

[@Coltn3125]

They are also investing heavily into shorting the Tesla stocks.

[@cassidybb10]

Two years later Foxconn buys into Lordstown to do this same thing.

[@bhjuoespbnuo]

3:04 look at the timer ;)

[@96Phenix]

Tesla is killing them with competitive pricing, there is nothing other big car companies can do right now. Once they are dead, Tesla's profit will skyrocketed.

[@ericbarnett852]

Oh. The ICE companies wanted to see when tesla would make money at it.

[@robertpryor7225]

Party like it's 2007, love it!

[@todddowney45]

the big three are not laughing at tesla now 'are they.now they are trying like hell to catch up.way to go tesla' you have them all shaken up now'lol.

[@samuelwilliams7331]

3 years later and Tesla has 20 Billion in the bank. I guess we know who is making money.

[@btrts6431]

Funny watching this, almost 30 minutes go by without a mention of Tesla. Legacy makers can claim all day about 200 models coming in the next 1-3 years, WHERE are they going to get the batteries???

[@carstenthies9597]

Porsche Taycan: ... and it's got, and it's got, and it's got... What it does not got is competitive range and efficiency compared to Tesla!

[@jamessmith5535]

I wonder how much lithium is really available to work with. And how mutch environmental impact is there on recycling spent battery packs

[@klokoloko2114]

Lithium is not toxic or rare, it's more abundant that lead 20 times and non toxic like lead is.

[@omartinoco9930]

@@klokoloko2114 Where is it then? Chile? Where else, Crazy Loco?

[@jamesleonardpanes9915]

Lithium is the third most abundant element on Earth. It is also quite simple to recycle. The only reason none is being mined in the U.S.A. is because it is so cheap and abundant that nobody wants to bother.

[@irwincgemlich8341]

Legacy Automotive will survive in some form. Even a blind squirrel finds some acorns!

[@yootoober2009]

Tesla invested in technologies first before thinking about making money which the OEMs and Short sellers saw as Tesla's downfall. Now, these oligarchs have to do everything al at once now - sell everything off, invest in technologies, produce EVs that compete with Teslas and find find a new business model to replace their dealerships system.

[@mrm.5787]

Everybody: They talk a lot about Tesla. You need to watch it the whole time.

[@johndonaldson5126]

Here's what I predict for car owners being paid for data. The contracts will be written so that the owner indeed can get paid (of course it will be a manual complex process). But the data collector will only pay for the data that was actually used, not all that was collected, and then the amount of money will be spread over millions of car owners. Here's your $0.18 for this month. Thank you very much.

[@Singuy888]

You guys still don't get it. The first time people see a Taycan on the street, their first thought isnt "boy I need to get one of those!". Their first thought is " why did this dumbass buy an electric car with no autonomy feature, poor software, no over the air update and little charging infrastructure?". Your logic would have applied to the Ipace which is super rare but no one is buying. So no people are not buying these new inferior electric cars because it's "new looking". Laugh at Tesla service now but at least you can bet everyone at the Tesla service center understand how to fix a Tesla vs not a single person at a Porsche Taycan dealership know how to fix a Taycan. Dealership can't justify hiring a specialist sitting there twittling their thumbs when there are 5 taycans on the street.

[@ericbarnett852]

Why are they not talking about tesla? Just bury your head because.......???

[@ericbarnett852]

Did u consult tesla? No

[@_PatrickO]

I really hope tesla posts enough profit for Q2 that they have a profit for the last 12 months. It is getting old when John keeps pretending that no one can make money making EVs. Tesla has had 3 profitable Qs in the last 12 months and the only reason the 1Q wasn't profitable was because of the costs and reduced deliveries caused by setting up international deliveries for the model 3. Remove those one time costs and disruptions in deliveries and they are easily profitable.

[@bluezcluez315]

I know 2018 Q3 and Q4. What is the other quarter I'm missing?

[@V0YAG3R]

Patrick O And Islam is a religion of peace 👌🏻

[@_PatrickO]

@@bluezcluez315 This current Q just finished, record deliveries.

[@_PatrickO]

@@V0YAG3R Get your religious spam out of here.

[@bluezcluez315]

Patrick O yes, and I’m hopeful for profitability too, but it hasn’t happened / been announced yet.

[@rajukr6222]

Tesla employees can go in a ICE car for work. Any ICE car executive will be fired if he goes in a Tesla or EV.

[@bluetocop]

mini convert was a hauler

[@davefroman4700]

Tony Seba has been talking about this for 5-6 years now....How do you make money? That is going to be downfall of the capitalist system in the age of technology. How do you make money when 80% of the workforce is no longer required in the production, processing, manufacturing, distribution and delivery of virtually all goods and services over the next 20 years?

[@debralivingston7298]

158 new electric vehicles in next 10 years they're going to go out of business without new technology they can't compete with Tesla as long as Tesla can stay ahead of the curve they're already way ahead

[@Coltn3125]

The biggest problem is NONE of them even understand how to do it yet. They STILL outsource almost every part. There is NO vertical integration at all. They are still all stuck on outdated 90 year old ideas on wiring. Tesla is the ONLY EV that talks to the chargers. Enabling them to show on their app what chargers are in use. All of them outsource their batteries. The list goes on and on.