Can We Predict Earthquakes?

Hank talks about why it is so difficult for scientists to predict earthquakes in the short term.
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References for this episode can be found in the Google document: dft.ba/-3waz

[@skywize]

If I heard correctly, the two earthquakes Hank mentioned, in reference to animal behaviour has one thing in common, 5 days. It could be something that happens to very specific animals, or only for massive earthquakes, but specifically five days in advance, no more, no less. Or it could be like the millions of old wives tales about animal precog.

[@ziooomele]

Good morning Dr. Hank. I really liked this episode of Scishow. That earthquake is still an open wound for us italians. I totally agreee with the fact that earthquakes can't be predicted but in this case that one was predicted but no one really believed it (or they were paid to not mention it). My girlfriend 5 days before the earthquake was taking an exam in another city (Bari) at 400 km away from Aquila. She usually reminds me that the desks were they were doing the exam started to tremble.

[@DarklyDreaming24]

just finished watching all 3 hours of an evening of awesome... new scishow upload. damn hank i need sleep but cant resist watching

[@peacedude65]

I liked the new animations. Great video, thanks Hank!

[@PhineasPhishUK]

Most tectonic maps are laid out that way, since it makes it easier to see the more complex fault lines in the pacific area. That is not to say that the peripheral areas of the map are any less important, just that this layout shows more major plates in their completeness. Hope this helps.

[@Furgelnod]

@Grothmanus It was a reply to Dytonis' comment arguing that we should use AD and BC just because they've been around a long time, that first bit was some reductio ad absurdum. Personally I use CE / BCE but could care less what others use however I wanted to point out the reasons, as I see them, some people feel strongly on the matter, as the first commenter in the thread did.

[@EleanorShellsdrop]

Surprising how you didn’t mention the Kinkyū Jishin Sokuhō (Early Earthquake Warning) of Japan

[@juano3000]

@Kiwi Geo ok tiger 👍🏻

[@mariaspencerfied]

You guys are awesome.

[@__RD14533]

I like the new on screen text and highlighting!

[@worldview730]

Great information 👍

[@PrestonSmithsMusic]

Got any shows on how music affects our brains? In an art forum I frequent, we were discussing the correlations between music, language, art, and writing. While most seem to be obvious evolutionary traits resulting from big brains, I often think that music may have started as a defense against forest denizens. Ex, beating a stick against the grass to make snakes move away, or repetitious loud noises to scare MUCH larger creatures away (ie, Bear, or other such toothy, clawed hunter).

[@grammyd8361]

Dutchsince has it all figured out, Dude! Your missing out if you aren't watching him. He is a brilliant watchman who explains things even you could understand. It just takes a little common sense. 89%+ right in forecasting Earth Quakes!

[@jerrylosos9162]

There were reports of a Chinese scientist predicting an earthquake in spring of 1975. Here's two great ideas for a segment; #1.The effects on several major metropolitan regions, of a large seismic event along the New Madrid fault zone. #2 the aftereffects of a major eruption of the Yellowstone caldera on the central United States and global food production.

[@91tarza]

Its 5am and i havent yet slept cause we have lots of earthquakes lately and i am so scared ... im prayin one day a scientist can find out how to know when and where a quake happens 😭😭😭

[@juano3000]

Some scientists actually do know how to predict earthquakes. Check out Suspicious0bservers. Spread the word... There is a mayor earthquake coming, is being predicted and ignored.

[@Menmenthealth]

thank you so much for using the metric system and also giving the other option for people who dont. :D

[@Phoenix_ZA]

I like the new text punctuating Hank's points, although they can be a bit too forcefull.

[@user-cc4kq6hl4c]

So frogs can predict earthquakes and they studied ants ?

[@Londronable]

+Yo Mama He clearly said that they studied ants in a response to the belief ants did react to it.

[@angelsanchez-vg2oc]

Great Video clip! Sorry for the intrusion, I would love your initial thoughts. Have you heard about - Taparton Energetic Limbs Takeover (do a google search)? It is an awesome one of a kind product for preparing yourself for a mega drought without the hard work. Ive heard some unbelievable things about it and my buddy after many years got astronomical success with it.

[@UptownOutlaw]

Earthquake forecaster, Dutchsinise is the man you should be watching.

[@JairoArzola]

interesting. I just anted to ask, do you think there is a correlation between pumping for oil and earthquakes? I mean, if you dig closer to the ocean, the water acts as a medium to smoothly re-position the sand to fill in any chasms. But without oil as a lubricant (take the water out) the hole would fill in much more violently.

[@1327momoK]

using seismographs, they first detect the P-waves which travel fastest (and are less damaging i think. some can't even be felt) then send out warnings (via the telephone companies and loudspeakers stationed in the streets) before the other waves (which is the actual EQ) hit. the time in between is only enough to turn off gas and take cover, etc.

[@flockofflamingos]

One of my best friends, double major in Geology and Physics, actually inherited her father's patent of his own earthquake detection model. I don't know much about it personally, but looking a the patent (US7593907) it uses the "intersection of P-rings with tectonic plate edges" to "indicate future seismic event targets." It's really awesome and fascinating that my friend is an upcoming scientist on this subject. :)

[@dragonballthings688]

It's been 10 yrs bro. How's you doing?

[@DV7Dave]

Keep doing what your doing buddy. Your english is 100 times better than what I see in half the comments here.

[@MarcosCaballero]

I think LIGO (in the near future) may help map the center of the earth and its activity, since gravitational waves passes through, because one would believe this information be crucial to improve its instrumental sensitivity.

[@vdarknessfalls6704]

Gravity is BS

[@mad_rl9912]

Great vid

[@DJKafaz]

hey hank, i was wondering if you could answer a question I can't seem to find an answer for on the internet. why do cracks in glass cast shadows?

[@PJemus]

i live in christchurch new zealand and i have noticed that before each deadly earthquake here there is always a change in weather, it always becomes very overcast abbout 30 minutes before each earthquake, on the 23rd of dec 2011 i was outside and noticed a rainbow that made a riiing around the sun, i believed it may have been radon causing it so i just stayed outside in the feild of the next door school and less than 10 minutes after that a 5.3 followed by a 6 magnitude quake struck out city.

[@AlanaKabanaBanana]

Can you please explain the 'Cluster Headache' I'm really intrigued! I hope you can help me better understand this XD Thanks for making SciShow!

[@mneonew87]

With InSAR you can monitor tectonic plate movements and identify stress points where earthquakes could occur in the future. It's quite interesting technology, SAR (Synthetic Aperature Radar)

[@EmmleHad]

if i remember correctly hank studied geology at some point? could you do a couple episodes on some of the cool geological structures and stuff, could be really interesting :]

[@TheLithophile]

Risk assessment is not an impossible task. Risk assessment is done frequently. However, it is by definition as assessment of the *chance* that something will happen. Areas of faults that haven't faulted in a while are considered high risk because pressure is building up. Areas of faults that have quaked recently are considered low risk because pressure has been released. A quake could still happen anywhere along the fault, it's just that the low risk areas have less *chance* of it happening.

[@sophiasantillan2180]

I would LOVE a video about Plate Tectonics and Convection Currents

[@TheAdzyPadzy]

I lived in New Zealand right on the plates, there was always warnings on the tv almost everyday and after living there for 3 years only experienced 1 small earthquake, there was a earthquake house which demonstrated a large earthquake and it freaked me out so much that I couldn't even walk into the same room as the little house. Anyway, I have experienced more earthquakes in Australia after living her for 6 years then i have in NZ, which is weird because Melbourne is nowhere near 2 plates.

[@melindamorrison1]

Dutchsinse is a public proclaimed professor in the study of predicting or forecasting earthquakes.

[@kingly6509]

Given this for geography homework, this is actually interesting. Thanks for making my learning easier lmao

[@anonymouspersonthefake]

s a m e

[@markimoop9416]

You guys should make a video on earthquake early warning systems, they really should get more attention

[@Alwayswesome]

Cool video. Does anyone know how to put multiple videos on the screen at once like at the end of this

[@trifio5242]

Ok, Pet. I got your point. You are right. I was slightly misstating the facts. I wish youtube had an "edit" function=) Thank you for pointing my mistake out, Pet:)

[@MidtownSkyport]

Hank, how come you use BC & AD instead of BCE & CE? I've heard John using the latter before.

[@lissy42nerdfighter]

It affects the weather/tides in the same way that it normally does. A new moon occurs when the light the sun shines on the moon is reflected directly away from Earth, so we're looking at the shadowy side. It has nothing to do with distance or anything and wouldn't affect weather.

[@verseofsingularity]

How does the earthquake forecast system in Japan work? I see lots of friends in Japan retweet an alert that goes out and I'm curious how that entire system works and is able to alert those possibly affected.

[@dragonballthings688]

It's been 10 yrs bro. How's you doing?

[@cragbot1]

Toads abandoning their breeding ground is rather surprising, those things will try to breed with anything.

[@JWelton]

Why do earthquakes happen in one location (epicenter) if it is a whole plate moving? This morning we had a quake in NY, ME and Quebec. Why doesn't that happen more often, where there would be a string of earthquakes along the fault line?

[@TheSublimeSunshine]

Props for citing a source!

[@Jonaterko]

I prefer knowing that my house is going to stand an earthquake, rather than to know one is coming, we already know that earthquakes are going to occur at some point, we should be building anti-seismic buildings.

[@Muffysb]

This show kicks butt.

[@TheYellowSalamander]

For next time: why is the sea salty, is it getting more or less salty, should we be worried about its saltiness? three questions I have tried to find the answers to but no one (including the internet) will give me a satisfying answer

[@purplezart]

Who was Juan de Fuca, and why is the only tectonic plate named after a person (other than Phillip II of Spain, I guess) named after him?

[@iyenga8804]

Heyo SciShow! Maybe do a video on the correlation between solar activity, ie coronal hole streams, and increases in seismic activity. I understand that correlation doesn't mean causation, but there is a relationship between space weather and the frequency/severity of earthquakes. NASA has supported this idea, if my memory serves me. Also, our local star is incredibly fascinating and could be the subject of many videos. Society busting x flares, magnetosphere vs solar wind/CMEs, umbral fields ect

[@TannytheRatty]

I remember how pissed he was when he was recording the SciShow news episode about this.

[@daniellbondad6670]

Our pets(hamsters,cats and dogs,as well as fish) act very differently when they predict a giant slab where you live,is going to suddenly snap.

[@truefregn]

Anything that can interact with a photon can cast a shadow and that means that everything, excluding dark matter, can (and will) cast a shadow. Glass, however is bad at stopping photons and only cast a very week shadow. Meanwhile the crack is better at interacting with photons. That is why they cast a better shadow and also why they are easier to spot. If you shine a bright light at a hot object you will get a shadow of the object and ripples around it, being the shadow of air waves. :)

[@MacoveiVlad]

I clearly remember a news report about some scientist's in the San Francisco area that observed modifications in the ionization of air tens of minutes or even days before a quake. They could be the guys he talks about that were dissed by USGS, but form what i remember the evidence they were claiming was more than anecdotal. An i never heard of their research since, although i'm constantly on the lookout for news on seismologic research in general and for that research in particular.

[@Mitchthemysteryman]

Actually, the area Cascadia is in covers only deep Northern California, and the rest is correct. Anywhere below Mendocino Bay is considered the San Andreas Fault.

[@6000cortes]

Yo Hank, i was in a meeting at work and my left leg "fell asleep" pretty bad. I always wanted to know why body parts did that? also seems like the feeling goes through like stages or something..

[@2aquillus2]

2:50 like honey badgers?

[@Hman9876]

idea for episode, you should do an episode on how helium makes your voice higher and heavier than air molecules make your voice much deeper, also what makes them different from normal "air"

[@victornimako6339]

Really Interesting

[@JustLilGecko]

KZbin views freeze around 300 for up to 24 hours, so that it can be checked that the video isn't gaining it's views via spam-bots. Likes aren't frozen. That's why most new videos are stuck at about 302 views, but can have way, way more likes. It's a pretty common thing.

[@MrFatBiscut]

Can you make a video explaining the who-ha involving the flare that's supposed to hit this year?

[@WCOBDisorder]

I think to say that such is true may be overestimating humanities reach. The extent of which oil is removed is comparatively small when compared to the surface of the earth. But yes small chasms will fill violently, but nothing on the level of "normal" plate movement earthquakes.

[@miademuse7000]

I predicted an earthquake in the san francisco bay area five years ago. I was giving friends a tour of the city when I noticed there were no pigeons in town... I also noticed that the sea lions were not to be found at pier 39. I told my friends there would be a quake within five days and I was right luckily only a magnitude 4.3 or so but if we had an alert system that locals could contribute to perhaps we could all work together on this.

[@jimass13]

Did you do a video on black holes yet?

[@JanStrojil]

Exactly! The whole news coverage of the trial seems to imply they were tried for failure to predict when in fact they were not!

[@keegan9935]

I think they already have. I'm not sure where it is or what it's called, but if you dig around a bit you can probably find it.

[@DuffTheHerald]

Italians needed that someone pays. The easiest thing to do was use a "whipping boy", and scientists were they unlucky ones only because it was too hard to give the fault to who built and didn't make safe houses. If scientists spread panic every time (and it'll happen now, because they don't want to be accused) it'll be awful. If there is a storm and you ask a scientist if you'll be stricken by a lightning, he'll tell you that it might not happen.

[@PJemus]

i live in christchurch new zealand. we had a 6.3 and a 6.4 magnitude quake that killed 183 people including one of my best friends mothers.

[@camtazbo]

A strange phenomenon that is rare but has been used to predict earthquakes is earthquake lights. This makes a mix between a drunken rainbow and the northern lights in the sky during the day. It is thought that this is made by the detraction between different gases that are released though a fault.

[@DuncanZ64]

How about the supposed 'Graviton', the excitation of the gravitational field, like the Higgs Boson is the excitation of the Higgs field? I've only just heard of it, so I don't know anything about it.

[@Midorikonokami]

I have a question and I'm interest to see what you think ... Is there a difference between Einstein's theoretical white-holes and quasars/phasars? In theory the two seem pretty similar. Thoughts?

[@neddyladdy]

It is easy to track the tectonic plates. Just have a look at the picture of then you showed us, they're coloured. cheers

[@carterstaley]

You should talk about the new expandable segments that are being added to the ISS soon. Also, they say there are more resistant to micro meteors and I was confused on what those were.

[@dragonballthings688]

It's been 10 yrs bro. How's you doing?

[@djfrosty937]

more greener that usually

[@johncrwarner]

Is there work about the North Anatolian Fault and the movement of the epicentres of earthquakes further west?

[@sherimatukonis6016]

Animals will alert about 30 seconds before the significant shaking... According to videos posted. This is a reaction to the subtle shaking before it becomes noticeable.

[@thatsoliz]

I wonder what would have happened with the alternate case. If you told everyone to evacuate and then the earthquake never occurred, would the scientists still have received some kind of grief? (Maybe not sentenced to jail time.) I think this situation shows that there needs to be some kind of "public relations person" interacting between scientists and society because scientists aren't always the best at sharing their findings with the public. (I see this as a grad student in Earth Science.)

[@DoddyDigital]

Do they bark when there's not an earthquake coming aswell? I mean... It would be worth studying if sounds are emitted prior to the seismic waves. Aren't seismic waves and soundwaves the same thing on different magnitudes, btw?

[@davidwilliams-xt7pe]

Yes dutchsinse does on you tube

[@sekodino2300]

Hank, you would've probably been a better defense attorney than the ones the scientists had during the trail and make those prosecutors and judges look silly.

[@PeterDrake]

That's my take on it too. Charged for predicting no earthquake, instead of for not predicting an earthquake as some people seem to believe.

[@ThePilotification]

here is a though for question, why dont we make earthquakes in regions that are know for destructive earthquake. If we do it often, it should in theory relieve the high tensions and therefor reduce the damage and frequency of natural destructive quakes. but like i said, its just a thought

[@DeadmanfredOfficial]

Adding to my last comment. We do CAN expect WHERE should be the next earthquake, according to an previous one in a specific area. But we CANNOT predict WHEN.

[@ArtemisFowl761]

Do a SciShow on genetic engineering!

[@jeffshubert]

Even when a "low risk" event occurs, it doesn't mean that such a prediction was wrong. I assume the scientists meant "low probability" but the public infers "zero probability" and was outraged when the event occurred. To the extent scientists had a way to predict the impact, then the risk could have been upgraded to a medium risk even if they had a way to predict a low probability.

[@otobusify]

actually calculating the electromagnetic field theoratically works, but it is really hard to detect.

[@Operamatt]

Most ironic advertisement for religious prophecy on the sidebar, laughing my ass off! :D

[@007VitaminD]

What is the evolutionary explanation of animals reacting to earthquakes. i mean, like they dont create buildings that will fall on them. so why do they react when nothing happens to them? if anyone can answer, ty.

[@TheBurritoLord]

I recall that i read about how much data is available on the human brain and we remember things that happened a long time ago because i remember reading about the brain storing the memories that were lively and different that is why you remember things you don't remember blinking because you blink all the time and your brain chooses not to store that data.

[@glui]

Actually the situation of those italian scientists is a bit more complicated than the mere "guiltiness of failing a prediction", as Hank puts it. Apparently, in their first report, after a 3.6 magnitudo quake, they minimized the risk alert of further and stronger quakes (wich later occurred and killed many other people) without scientific base, but there is a consistent doubt about the authenticity of the report.

[@jmorgan87]

I feel like if my government told me that if I my earthquake forecasts were too erroneous I'd be jailed, I would explicitly inform them that I cannot predict earthquakes, and that I will no longer be a seismologist for you. I feel like Italy asked if these scientists could predict a certain amount, the scientists agreed that they could even with the threat of prosecution if failed forecasts were distributed, and the scientists still complied. I guess they wanted to keep their career at all costs

[@RavenscarGhost]

To quote my favorite earthquake song~ "Mr.Richter can't predict her kicking our asphalt."

[@TheDessertWarrior]

Hey, could you do something on how anti-histamines work?

[@EthanFouts]

"We should probably stop throwing scientists in jail for failing to do something that's impossible." That quote is a crackup! Kind of a no-duh thing you would think...

[@katfish287]

What about japan 2011?? Most people got a five minute warning through their tv or cell phone predicting not only that thete would be an earthquake, but predicting its size. Ditto the tsunami. Its not a huge warning, but it gives you a chance to get to a secure place and to prepare

[@Truthiness231]

IKR, they need to fix that bug. Currently, KZbin users can't subscribe multiple times, and that just doesn't seem right (it's certainly not fair to SciShow; everyone should have a couple dozen subscriptions at the very least)...

[@subh1]

Being unable to predict is not same as giving assurance that earthquake won't happen. In the Italian earthquake case it was the later that the scientists did. Somewhy this did not came out clearly through the media, and that caused all the commotions.

[@bieberle4]

so were they released or are they screwed?

[@frollard]

funny enough, there ARE. for a given quake there are hundreds of smaller quakes - its the big ones that get the epicenter, where the first 'straw breaks the tectonic back"

[@zhubajie6940]

This episode in the annuals of justice is like the words, "Well she turned me into a newt."

[@Nellshortfornell]

I was so furious about this when it happened! Insert long winded rant about hedging your bets, scapegoats, and how much uproar there would've been if the advisers had said "yeah, you should be worried, let's all evacuate and displace a bunch of people and cost lots of money" and then nothing had happened.

[@IronAnimation]

go for it