Why We Can't Predict Earthquakes

Earthquakes have the power to devastate entire communities-a little advanced notice could make a world of difference with an impending earthquake. So why can't they be predicted? Join Rose Bear Don't Walk for a new episode of SciShow, and take a dive into the world of earthquake science!
Earthquake preparation links: www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/...
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Original episodes:
Can We Predict Earthquakes? - • Can We Predict Earthqu...
Can Animals Predict Earthquakes? - • Can Animals Predict Ea...
The “Devil’s Staircase” Shows Why Earthquakes Are Hard to Predict - • The “Devil’s Staircase...
The Future of Earthquake-Proof Buildings - • Can We Make Buildings ...
Are We Overdue for a Megaquake? - • Are We Overdue for a M...

[@shoefresh8]

In geology we often say that earthquakes don't kill people, structures do. This is somewhat anecdotal, but while we cannot forecast earthquakes reliably, we can be prepared for when they eventually come. Making sure building codes are up to standard and reflect local seismic hazard, routinely maintaining and surveying existing buildings and infrastructure, making sure civil authorities are prepared for the eventually of a strong earthquake, etc., these are the measures that actually save lives. It its important to raise awareness of the general public as well as decision makers for these important measures in areas of seismic hazard.

[@Infernoraptor]

Most important: enforce the rules. Otherwise you get the Bay Bridge collapse during Loma Prieta.

[@FrankYou69]

P0QP

[@fero_zetta]

The only exception to this I can remember is Valdivia 1960... the fissures in the ground ate people and then crushed them when they closed... But that was literally THE STRONGEST EARTHQUAKE, so it kinda doesn't count...

[@aidanwaite6359]

As a former seismologist I couldn't agree anymore with you! Preparation is KEY to surviving an earthquake or any natural disaster at that! EVEN IF WE COULD PREDICT EARTHQUAKES WOULD IT ACTUALLY HELP? Would people take the prediction seriously?

[@warlordofvideogameglitches]

Say this to a 10.0 earthquake.

[@icarusbinns3156]

I recall a 2020 Alaskan quake that Mom’s friend was able to warn her neighbors about. This woman takes in retired Iditarod sled dogs, so she has something like 20 ‘old’ huskies and malamutes. I guess the night before the quake, they flatly refused to curl up in their bed areas, and just formed a pile in the middle of the yard. TC called her neighbors and said “Hey, my dogs are acting weird. We might be in for something. Either lightning or shaking, get ready for both.” Fortunately, the warning was early enough (if vague as hell!) that the people were able to prepare some areas of their property. Like moving horses outside or getting fragile heirlooms protected. I do still love the Sounders Quake. Where a 3.2 (?) quake was recorded as a surface tremor. Scientists were mildly freaking out since it was really unexpected, and a surface one. The epicenter? Was the field. The fans were so enthusiastic that they triggered a recorded surface quake!

[@tessat338]

During an earthquake, my cat was as gormless as he usually is about anything that he doesn't understand. He had been sleeping and was as surprised as the rest of us were when the earthquake hit. No sign of advanced warning. He also doesn't perceive any threat when he sees his sister getting her toenails cut. He'll just watch and grin without any foreknowledge that he is next up for getting his claws trimmed. He is 12 and we have been cutting his toenails for his entire life.

[@zeinab9222]

i love him

[@arjuscarlet55555]

Sounds like a happy cat ❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@jackwastakenx2]

WHat is *GORMLESS*

[@tessat338]

@@jackwastakenx2 Adj: lacking focus, lacking intelligence, dull, clueless, inattentive. Use in a sentence: "Watch where you're going, you gormless git!"

[@jackwastakenx2]

@@tessat338 Heh, good to know :)

[@alisakomendova3514]

In the meanwhile I'm sitting here, in Czech Republic, where we had our first actual tornado this summer, thinking "Hmm, earthquake, maybe I should educate myself after all." 😅

[@UltimatePerfection]

We had one in Poland too and I blame Algida for their Twister ice cream.

[@Kanitoxx]

It's highly improbable, unless you are near a zone that had an ice shelf in the past, those zones are prone to have rebound earthquakes up to magnitud 4.5M, that's not much, but some structures might still fall from this

[@nos9784]

Fracking and geothermal drilling have been said to cause earthquakes to some extant.

[@sophiaruizuvalle2523]

Nice coincidence that this released September 1st when in México it's considered "earthquake season" We know that they don't have a season but the two most devastating earthquakes in the last 40 years have been on September 19

[@NephiylusBaphson]

Y seguimos sin perder la tradición xd

[@randomly_random_0]

In philippines we also see some pattern. The earthquake always occur on April at around 1am - 5am

[@crinkle-cutchimp4960]

What a coincidence I’m watching this not long after the 3rd September 19th earthquake in Mexico. Keeping the tradition alive, maybe turn it into some morbid festival?

[@Leongon]

I was told the Valdivia's earthquake topped at 9.5 magnitude because that was how high the instruments at the time were able to read, so it was likely even higher.

[@IDoNotLikeHandlesOnYT]

"Not great, not terrible"

[@Kanitoxx]

I lived near the town of "Puerto Saavedra", which I visited a few times. The first time I went there I was surprised of how far it was from the shore and had no pier or port (puerto means port in Spanish), then I learned that it was actually a port in the past, before the Valdivia earthquake, but the quake lifted the area about 4 meters above the usual level in average and was washed away by an 12 meter tall tsunami. This was an extreme event that the 2010 event doesn't come even close and that was scary for me.

[@ismirdochegal4804]

@@Kanitoxx The question is not if something like this can happen, but when. And since we cannot prevent it, we can only prepare ourselves very well for it. Besides, Ian Oliver, I understood the reference.

[@SportyMabamba]

They gave them the propaganda number

[@danielm5535]

As a kid growing up in So. CA, I remember regularly waking up minutes before nighttime earthquakes. One night I couldn’t sleep until the earthquake hit at 4:40AM. I couldn’t/wouldn’t be able to explain how or what… I just did…

[@l1ghtd3m0n3]

You could have been subconsciously sensing precursor shocks?

[@ismirdochegal4804]

@@l1ghtd3m0n3 Could be that. But could also be hindsight bias. For example, when I'm writhing in bed at night and have trouble sleeping, it's usually been a full moon night. But there are significantly more nights with a full moon when I could sleep through without any problems.

[@trishayamada807]

My husband is from Japan. When we go and visit family I can sense earthquakes that they aren’t even aware of, or that they’ve become so used to quakes that don’t notice unless it’s really bad. I was in a 6.9 earthquake there and although it was terrifying, and the shaking so violent I couldn’t get up from the floor, the house survived with a crack, the internet was still running, electricity on. What surprised me is all the aftershocks. It felt like the earth was continuously trembling for over 24 hours. I am always so stressed there. I always make sure to keep track of where we are in a building and which ways we could escape. I know it’s borderline insanity, but in 17 trips to japan, there’s been earthquakes every single time.

[@lovecraftscat5044]

You might just have not taken notice of other sleepless nights because nothing spectacular happened afterwards.

[@danielm5535]

I was a good sleeper as a kid; my brother with whom I shared a room commented I would always be the first one in a doorway. Insofar as the 4:40 am quake- I was anxious all night and I couldn’t figure out why; after the earthquake, I went to sleep deeply and immediately.

[@a_real_jive_turkey7772]

"Hi, fox 6, My cows are producing less milk over the past few days and my chickens produced slightly different colored eggs than usual...well just the 1 did but I've got all the info I need to say with confidence that You may wanna let everyone know to expect an earthquake within the next 7-10days. It's gonna be a big'n too because my cat hasn't been cleaning itself near as much as usual. Don't say I didn't warn ya"

[@christianheichel]

I'll sue your cows chicken and cat if they're wrong. There might even be jail time

[@seanwoolsey6787]

Have you been hanging out with Dutchsinse? Jk 😜 😆

[@AdrianCuyubambaDiaz]

About 14 years ago my sister and I were playing with our hamsters, we put them on a chair and started shaking it repeatedly screaming "earthquake earthquake" and as we were doing so the 2007 peru earthquake began. For years we thought we had the power to make earthquakes happen

[@Tymeshifter]

What was your distance from the epicenter of the quake?

[@AdrianCuyubambaDiaz]

@@Tymeshifter 150 km, not close

[@AdrianCuyubambaDiaz]

@@T_Hoog I know I'm sorry we were little kids 😔

[@enginsci8307]

@@AdrianCuyubambaDiaz May be this length act as lever arm

[@fep_ptcp883]

I think that the most surprising thing would be an earthquake hitting Peru in the morning right after a night in which not a single person in the country had a nightmare about earthquake. These coincidences are almost inevitable in a country with millions of inhabitants

[@mridrick]

10 minutes prior to a 7.1 magnitude EQ reaching me from 200km away across the other side of my island, all birdlife went absolutely crazy (even the non-nocturnal birds woke up at 4:20am, yes we were still up drinking) . We wondered what was up until the slow rock from a distant EQ started. Still amazed to this day by their heads up to it today.

[@tim40gabby25]

Interesting and important observation. Magnetic changes?

[@mridrick]

@@tim40gabby25 Not sure. I was thinking the Primary (P) waves travelled so much faster through granite mountains over that long distance than the Secondary (S) waves but I am just a mere mortal

[@wolfiemuse]

@@mridrickI’m pretty sure that’s it. I’ve heard that used as an explanation for animals freaking out prior to an EQ from someone in the field, if I recall correctly. Those animals with more sensitive senses than us can “feel” the P wave; it’s something they’ve never felt before, it scares them, and they freak out. Then when the actual EQ comes they freak out way more obviously, but I remember seeing a video where a dog felt the P wave like, a solid 40 seconds early which got the person up out of their chair and likely saved their life as the building shook and started coming apart

[@monicapula3238]

my dad has this condition (i'm not sure what it is he never seeked (sook?) SAUGHT an official diagnosis) but the hairs/crystals in his ear canal are WAY more sensitive to movement (like spidey sense more) and we were living is SoCal at that time, and we were having dinner with our neighbors and out of nowhere he said (in a very calm, matter-of-fact voice because he is him) "earthquake" and we all just looked at him, and 30 seconds later we felt the shake of a 4.0 earthquake epicentered at yorbalinda. is my dad a bird? asking for a friend

[@sophroniel]

My dad's a geologist (vulcanologist; he mapped the banks penninsula cone matrix). I grew up hearing, not just as most kiwis that "Wellington is overdue an earthquake" (which it is), but that *Christchurch* is overdue it's "big one". I did a project on it, actually.... in May 2010. And, unfortunately, what my dad always said was proven right... in September 2010 but, more devastatingly, on 22 Feb 2011, with a death toll of 185. It was drowned out from the media due to Japan having a devastating earthquake of their own not long after, but what people don't realise is that the Christchurch one was more *violent*, but because we don't have nuclear power and Christchurch's underwater geography isn't conducive to tsunamis (and we build in NZ for earthquakes) we didn't have anywhere near the death toll of Japan. Earthquakes, and their aftermath, have been a dominant force in my life from the age of 16. I was involved in the Kaikora project, where the 2016 earthquake took out a main state highway and is only now getting back properly. And then the mosque next to my high school was attacked. And then White Island exploded. And then a pandemic hit. You only get one chance at life, dammit, and I'm going to do what I can to make sure we're better prepared in the future, like those tsunami stones in Japan everyone ignored. We can't have another CCTV ever again.

[@thomaslinton5765]

To be accurate, the seven italian goverment employees were conviced of inaccuartely downplaying the risk of an earthquake six days before it happened.

[@hassanhamdan3754]

Im watching this as huge earthquakes hit and might still hit our region in Syria, Turkey and Lebanon on this day

[@melanezoe]

ICARUS will have to be a huge project. There have already been 136 quakes in the USA TODAY. Had one here today about a mile from my home in east Texas. A small 2.6 one. My cat and I slept through it, oblivious. In 1952, in Southern California, when I was 6, I was outdoors when the ground moved like ocean waves and knocked me down. In 1969, near Ventura, California, the dogs in my kennels all went berserk, barking, jumping, whining. 20 minutes later when I was looking out the window to see what was going on, the window ledge moved out from under my hands . So as far as pet warning goes, I’ve seen it both ways.

[@nikkireynolds9514]

Not about science: Where does Hank get his shirts? Because the pattern matching for the checks is flawless and that isn't typical of ready made shirts.

[@confusedwhale]

H&M sometimes.

[@auditoryeden]

I think I vaguely remember him mentioning on vlogbrothers or one of the pods that some of them are thrifted? If they're older items they might be more likely to be well matched? Or he could just be picky.

[@MrLuisJF]

I think that shirt patterns match usually good on the front. Where quality speaks is where it’s sawn, so look at the sleeves…

[@Shanoninoni8]

Pretty sure it's thrift stores usually?

[@regular-joe]

Love seeing the growth in skills and confidence as new hosts find their feet!!👍👌

[@amazingracie212]

She might have come a long way, but she still has quite a ways to go. Its so awkward still, like she cant read the prompts fast enough. And the strange intonation and pauses, everything is a question. I still cant stand her videos.

[@francispitts9440]

Having spent my entire adult life in a career as a K-9 handler mostly for search and rescue but I did work many years with other working K-9’s and so did my Father. Between police work and SAR 36 years have gone by and I’m still training my Labrador Retrievers for Human Cadaver and live rescue recovery and don’t see wanting to quit soon. It’s because I’m that happy working with them and I’m always learning something new and amazing. They have much more capacity and capabilities than what we’re seeing. It’s growing every year. My cadaver dog has easily found human remains in pretty deep water. Especially standing water. I pay close attention to what they do and what they are trying to tell me. They clue into some things long before we mere humans ever do. If my dogs suddenly wanted to get out of an area, I’m leaving immediately. I’m not questioning anything not for a micro second. I’m running right behind them.

[@theophrastusbombastus8019]

I don't remember the whole affair at L'Aquila so don't quote me on that however I seem to recall that the problem wasn't predicting the earthquake: before the big one there had been numerous smaller earthquakes and authorities reassured the population urging them to stay indoors as those small shocks meant a big event would not come as the earth was discharging slowly. So I think there were contradicting and misleading infos.

[@TS1336]

It was a bit more complicated than this but yeah, it's definitely not as commonly described.

[@TheRealFlenuan]

But you're implying that those smaller earthquakes could have predicted the big one, which is not necessarily true

[@Leongon]

That IS the correct information even today. Earthquakes usually begin at the highest magnitude and then recoils follow up at lower and lower magnitudes for a day or two. The sensible thing is to tell the population to stay home instead of panicking and taking off. What happened there was very unique and not the fault of the experts... they did give the best advice from the experience and info we have.

[@theophrastusbombastus8019]

@@TheRealFlenuan The problem isn't that they didn't predict it, they predicted it would NOT come, telling people to stay inside

[@theophrastusbombastus8019]

@@TS1336 yeah, I'm just going on memory of the event and I was a teen at the time so definetly whoever reads this should not take my word for it and do their own research if they are interested

[@DontFeedTheTrolls]

@14:36 my inner child is giggling uncontrollably

[@francispitts9440]

I looked in the comments just for this exact thing wondering if anyone else has my twisted sense of humor too.

[@charlottepatey79]

Hopefully the people designing these impressive tools for reducing structural damage/collapse will have an eye on the costs so they are available in poorer countries.

[@lordgarion514]

The cost is irrelevant to poorer countries. It will cost a LOT because it's being done in a country with high costs. Poorer countries have much lower costs. So once it's designed and made in an advanced country, it can then be made in the poorer country for use there. So costs will be MUCH lower.

[@Stettafire]

My dogs predicted an Earthquake.... about 5 seconds before it happened lol. They sat up and were acting kinda weird, staring at a wall in a random direction really intently. I thought they saw a bug or something, but they're generally not that interested in bugs. They wen't from sleeping to suddenly being virtually nose-against-the-wall focused in an instant. A few seconds after this weird behaviour the room started shaking. It was like a magnitude 2 or 3 I think. Din't do any damage, a person I know fell off her chair.

[@Emcron]

I'll always rmb how, as a young kid, I kept wondering who this "St Andreas" was, and why all the earthquakes in San Fran were his fault lol

[@spiralpython1989]

I live in the possibly the least likely place in the world for an earthquake. Out of the blue, at 0915 on Wednesday morning, pretty much the whole of my state of Victoria, Australia experienced a level 6 earthquake. Eating breakfast with my locked down kids, we heard a weird noise. My son said, “what’s that noise?” And about 10 seconds later we felt like we were on a boat in choppy water. Having never experienced an earthquake it was a really scary few minutes. And geologists believe the quake came all the way from an underground collision in New Zealand, which is a landmass completely built by earthquakes. I don’t know about animals; our budgies got quiet when we heard the whistling noise, but the dogs were completely focussed on retrieving and dropped toast crusts… but as a family we certainly heard a prequake weird noise…

[@darkcreatureinadarkroom1617]

Wait, if animals might be sensing changes in the environment that we KNOW are tied to earthquakes (like changes water acidity or electric charge in the air), is there any chance we can monitor those changes themselves?

[@BINCHICKENS.]

I own dumpy whites tree frogs. I've noticed they go through phases along with the weather. The most active times for the frog ( croaking / singing ) is just before a rainstorm or a major front coming through the area.

[@brasschick4214]

Probably can sense the change in atmospheric pressure/humidity in the air.

[@judithchaparro3336]

Here in Mexico City we have the “alerta sísmica” and it gives us almost 60 seconds before the earthquate hits the city.

[@garethbaus5471]

I would assume that this system probably relies on measuring the quake early enough that the warning can get to the city before the waves(lightspeed communication is pretty awesome) Edit just looked it up, the mechanism is pretty much exactly what I thought, and it is the first warning system of its kind available to the public.

[@sophiaruizuvalle2523]

It's pretty great, 60 seconds may not sound like a lot but it's probably saved a lot of lives

[@judithchaparro3336]

@@garethbaus5471 that’s the está it works

[@judithchaparro3336]

That’s the way it works

[@UrvineSpiegel]

I really hope to see one predicted from animal behavior. Just so I can see them all be badged honorary seismologist.

[@WouldntULikeToKnow.]

I remember waking up seconds before an earthquake hit a few times. Some earthquakes you can hear coming, I was scared of them, and a light sleeper.

[@leftward_hoe]

faunerary seismologist

[@AaronShenghao]

Scishow: You can't predict earthquake. Japan: I beg you differ.

[@danielled8665]

Japan, when will your next quake be? Japan: “Yes.”

[@r3d0c]

to quote Community, " I'm not psychic Annie, that's an illusion caused by extreme preparedness. ", Japan has very good safety and emergency preparedness scenarios and their infrastructure is built to handle most of these events

[@Xenos_AR]

Danielle digou said it more accurately

[@bj.bruner]

I'm from Utah's Wasatch front, where they've been saying we're overdue for a major earthquake for 30+ years. Couple that with Yellowstone a few doors down and yeah, I'm pretty aware about earthquakes 😅 from earthquake drills in school to buildings like the Utah capitol and several other buildings in Salt Lake City getting base isolation systems

[@dan-5678]

Ogden here, (not) looking forward to that

[@ShockedCaucasian]

Love the show

[@fghsgh]

They added "Compilation" to the title! Hooray!

[@morphanage]

@@Sarafan92 lol but why tho? So confused.

[@fghsgh]

aw man they're probably trying to see what has the highest click-through rate

[@lc7664]

They should just include some secret icon on the thumbnail image so SciShow fans can tell the difference but new viewers don't get turned away by it

[@kennyvv]

Removed again, really annoying.

[@DeciusMagnus]

They removed it again. Please stop doing this SciShow.

[@hardcoreftw95]

I love you so much for saying Chile correct!!!

[@GIJRock]

Chilly

[@grahamwaldo331]

I have an issue with the map presented at 1:33. It’s centered on the Americas, when it should be arranged so no continents are split.

[@Perry2186]

Duch has a theory

[@TS1336]

Uhm, claiming that those Italian scientists were on trial for failing to predict an earthquake is rather inaccurate. It's a die hard misconception fueled by stereotypes on Italian laws. They claimed infrastructures were safe from earthquakes of a given magnitude, which was not correct considering what happened to them.

[@likebot.]

No, they didn't claim the infrastructure was safe. They gave misleading information about preliminary quakes.

[@beniaminorocchi]

​@@likebot. I wouldn't say they gave misleading informations. The scientist urged people to stay home because there was no way to tell if those were preliminary earthquakes or business as usual, and they couldn't evacuate a city for no reason, but after the tragedy the public opinion decided that they should've seen it (although there was no scientific way to assess it, given the information they had, and every sismologist agrees on that). The trial had nothing to do with science, but with people trying to find someone to throw under the bus (and the scientists were found innocent 2 years later on appeal, the judge ruling that there was no way for them to conclude an earthquake was more or less likely to happen given the informations they had) On the other hand, most casualties were from people building where they shouldn't have, or from cheap building materials. For example the student house were 8 students died was built with cheap materials and the builders were found guilty. The trial found out that the earthquake was not the cause of the collapse, but just made it start

[@guuu881]

Clicking, watching, and commenting (despite that I've probably seen all of these already) _because_ "compilation" is in the title.

[@FuchsDanin]

Not watching myself (have literally seen every SciShow video, full stop) BUT I also came here specifically to comment and upvote, specifically because "compilation" is in the title.

[@unnameduser5647]

yeaa about that...

[@regular-joe]

Removed, no longer there...

[@Soup_Kup]

Looking good Michael.

[@rochelleahsolow2405]

It's not my fault it's San andreas's fault 😂 One of my dad's better dad jokes

[@seanwoolsey6787]

Geology and dad jokes go hand in hand

[@ReiArthur17]

Watching this video made me think... If we have an average idea of when the earthquake might happen, wouldn't it be possible to try to induce it to happen earlier? it's better to be ready for it than getting hit whilst unprepared. It's going to happen anyway right? Why not on our terms? My idea to induce an earthquake is to make a series of buildings around the fault lines with very heavy suspended weights. Which would be dropped simultaneously in an attempt to induce a premature earthquake while the population in the area would already have been evacuated.

[@heyilikeair8521]

Maybe even isolate it like put up a huge wall to take in the shock before we induce it. Interesting idea.

[@iaiGamer]

No, that would not be possible. Faults are enormous, locked, and the largest quakes don't exactly occur near the surface

[@purplerose2124]

@@iaiGamer you've earned your namesake

[@RyuuTenno]

while that sounds good initially, the issue is the fact that you'd be building structures on the fault line, and simply adding weight. And, once it's there, it won't do anything. To *really* be able to get the fault lines activated, you'd need a big ass detonation to occur. And, given the sizes of some of these faults, and the fact that you'd effectively have to dig down pretty deep in some instances, it wouldn't be feasible. Farthest down we've gotten is the Kola Superdeep borehole up in Russia, and even then, it's cause the instruments were over heating. And, unfortunately, due to the necessary requirements to actually getting it moving in the first place, anyone attempting to detonate a string of bombs in the fault line, would immediately attract the attention of every military on the planet. Never mind the fact that you'd manage to simultaneously piss off and over work every medical professional on the planet to attempt to contend with the fallout from a series of nuclear bombs.

[@monkeydink9933]

DutchSinse. The only word you need to know for Reliable earthquake predicting.

[@darxide03]

You misspelled Ben Davidson

[@FerGalicia]

Almost no one mentions that one of Mexico's worst Earthquakes happen on September 19th, 1985 (Magnitude 8.0) repeated exactly 32 years later on September 19th, 2017 (Magnitude 7.1) it was obviously a coincidence but was a f*cking crazy coincidence, but at the same time a lot of people got saved since they made a national Earthquake drill that very morning in 2017 remembering the one on 1985.

[@unclesamuk8687]

One time when I was sleeping I was awakened by a very loud crashing sound like a train has been violently derailed close by to my surprise a strong earthquake happened minutes after I heard that sound.

[@stevie-ray2020]

There's quite a few places around the world where there's a risk of megathrust earthquakes. The area north Bangladesh is one, & after studying geological evidence New Zealand geophysicists are concerned that the Alpine-Fault along the South Island is overdue for a quake of at least magnitude 8!

[@boxedlunch5682]

14:35 never thought I shared so much in common with skyscrapers.

[@kingjames4886]

seems like they should be able to monitor slight differences in density at the faults when the plates are building pressure

[@evanacey1414]

😅Yeah I live about 5 min from Puget Sound in Everett, WA. (approx. 30 min drive north of downtown Seattle).

[@MadDragon75]

I live near the San Andreas. Near Parkfield to be exact. If I don't know of one within a year or longer.. I worry a little.

[@minnymouse4753]

Putting those scientist in jail Seems like a cartoon villain like 2000s shredder punishing their Hench men for failure

[@Hex-Mas]

no just religious BS

[@infinidominion]

Suspicious Observers channel lends some deep insight to what causes earthquakes

[@faduci]

No, the channel run by an ex-lawyer lends some deep insight to how to extract money from people that are into conspiracy theories, by selling them earthquake apps that basically just place warnings over all mayor fault zones and then claiming to have predicted an earthquake if the earth shakes anywhere. Probabilities are ignored, they make wild claims about support from scientist that have never heard of them and use this to sell entrance to a yearly pseudoscience conference that today is concerned about subject like 'electric universe theory', a slight turn from the aliens and New World Order videos the channel started with.

[@justinhicks306]

Terrible, horrible things happen on this planet every once in a while. It’s still way better than all the other planets put together. With sincerest condolences to anyone affected by any of those horrible things.

[@LukeSly91]

Yep, super volcanoes, asteroid strikes, CME's, pole shifts, earthquake's, tsunami's etc.. Humanity has suffered collective trauma from these natural disasters over the millennia, likely almost wiping out humans from the planet many times. Its a damn scary world

[@Rabcup]

Please add [compilation] to the title when it is one! Longtime viewers see these mostly as reposted content. Not complaining just saying.

[@LuinTathren]

I agree with this. But I’d completely understand if it’s more beneficial for SciShow not to label them.

[@massimookissed1023]

The length of the video is a major clue. Granted, I didn't notice the length of this vid until after I'd clicked on it.

[@Rabcup]

@@massimookissed1023 usually the case with myself lol Idc I still watch them bc it’s been several years since I’ve seen the earlier ones

[@Rabcup]

@@LuinTathren however in doing so they’re inadvertently creating ‘soft’ clickbait

[@FuchsDanin]

Personally I agree wholeheartedly. I have seen EVERY SciShow video, full stop - but on EVERY compilation, I start, watch a few minutes, realize it's a compilation, then leave. That seems worse for metrics because a quantity of viewers are going to behave similarly. I also agree with the "soft clickbait" title, because I leave disappointed and/or annoyed every time.

[@SHEILAETHEQUIETSTORM]

Who here because of the earthquake in NY and NJ?

[@LadyLithias]

1989, the Loma Prieta earthquake had its epicenter about 13 miles from my house. My father, having recently purchased a full-scale VHS Camcorder, was intrigued with the time-lapse feature. So one fine day, my dad set up the camcorder to record the way shadows moved on our back fence in suburban Silicon Valley. He got about 2 hours of the afternoon recorded. In fact he left it plugged in and recording a few seconds every minute while he drove to the hospital to pick up my mother who was recovering from major abdominal surgery. I can still remember the video. In the foreground you see our parrot wandering around its cage, doing its thing. In the background you see the fence. One of our cats picked her way over to the fence and started to groom herself extensively, prior to settling down for a catnap in the afternoon sun. One of our dogs wanders through the frame multiple times. Birds are chirruping in the background. The video was just like the previous ten videos my father had created. Same birdsong, same nonchalant cats/dogs. The only difference is that my father also got a few seconds of the earthquake. You see the parrot fall of its perch, the cat glaring daggers at the fence for whacking her in the head. You hear the roar of the earth (if you've never heard it you can't comprehend how loud it is!), the rumble of our next door neighbor's chimney crashing down, the shattering of glass in ours and other houses. People screaming. The remarkable thing for me was that the animals in the video, domestic and wild, were utterly undisturbed until the earthquake.

[@TazDevil50]

my cat once woke up and ran all over my home, later I found out there was an earthquake that night

[@stevie-ray2020]

Cats hate it when they're not the ones knocking stuff off shelves!

[@kellydalstok8900]

My cat has been running in and out of the house for no apparent reason yesterday. Where I live an earthquake is impossible, unless there’s natural gas field nearby, which there isn’t - not close enough anyway. So it’s probably his epilepsy playing up, .

[@alicecuriosityoftenleadsto6288]

When the 6.9 hit in Seattle about 20 years ago I'll never forget thinking it was the big one, I was hiding under a table sheltering my toddler thinking 'why didn't I move to a safer place??' I was terrified. It lasted over a minute, felt like it just wouldn't stop, it was impossible to stand as you would be thrown down if you couldn't grab something, it made the parking lot look like ocean waves and the telephone poles stood tilted this way and that for months. That was a 6.9. A 9.0 is 3 times stronger. Its gonna be horrible.

[@Moon-ei7se]

I live in Seattle and this is frist time I heard about megathrust earthquake. I always heard people saying that there will be a earthquake in Seattle but I did not know it would be this bad I thought it would be a magnitude 7 or 8 NOT A 9 IM DOOM

[@Leongon]

I can predict earthquakes 5-10 seconds before they happen. There's a rumble that I'm not totally sure if I'm feeling, hearing or both, but always perceive it a few seconds before the actual shaking begins. Of course in a vehicle or some buildings it's likely imperceptible because these are built to dampen outsider vibrations, specially skyscrappers have huge antiseismic measures in the foundation so the ground actually moves under the building without shaking it, like moving a plate under a ball. But sitting at ground level at home I always perceive it.

[@mycenaeangal9312]

You're just feeling the earthquake though. earth quakes produce different kinds of vibrational waves and some travel faster than others. The animals are able to do it much in advance.

[@Leongon]

@@mycenaeangal9312 Sound is vibrations. That's the point my dude, it's possible to perceive them a few seconds before the actual shaking starts happening. But I don't think 5 days early makes sense for just the sound to be perceived... animals must be noticing something different way before the actual shaking of the earth begins.

[@BoDiddly]

Some animals do indeed detect earthquakes! Back a few years ago, when there was an earthquake in South Carolina and it affected us here in Metro Atlanta, I let my sisters German Shepard wanted to urgently go outside, so I let her out in the back yard and she immediately started to intensely sniff at the ground. Like seriously sniffing the ground and I could not get her attention at all, which was not normal. Shortly after, we felt the earthquake.

[@heyilikeair8521]

Yh but animals run from lots of things. We just can't shut down a country over birds flying away or dogs running. But what is being said is that humans have no reliable way to predict earthquakes.

[@marcoasturias8520]

Hindsight bias

[@Noname-67]

Earthquake doesn't have smell, just saying

[@theglobalwarming6081]

There was a security cam video of multiple cats simultaneously waking up about 9-11 seconds before an earthquake. They probably felt weaker shocks before the main quake hit. In conclusion, animals are indeed more sensitive to earthquakes. But their behaviors are too complex to make a reliable prediction that's minutes into the future. kzbin.info/www/bejne/jHuQoWynhM11rJY I promise you its not the Rick Roll video

[@BoDiddly]

@@heyilikeair8521 I know what was being said in the video. Did you read my comment at all? Where did I say anything about animals running?

[@user-yi8uu1du3b]

A Kiwi geologist - North Island NZ & it capital city said "mega quake every 500 yrs", so asked him when the last one was - "1000 years ago". And he built his house 800 ft up on top of a near shear drop! He moved to flatter ground eventually. One rumble I noticed had no aftershocks - a sure sign it was a fault line (minor) - that and the shear drop. But building code for houses stipulates wooden, resting on posts and floor beams with wired loops over to limit lateral jumps. Rarely brick as façade only, so it falls outward.

[@aftersexhighfives]

Never thought about how the San Andreas fault will be catastrophic for Japan too. Orphan tsunami is almost a cute way to describe the reality of what happened.

[@benclark1102]

Dutchsinse!

[@FirelighttheKing]

28:30 ~ ish I’ve had the GeoNet app downloaded on my phone for years (NZ), and I haven’t been surprised by a large earthquake since. Where I live, most of the large earthquakes I feel tend to take about a minute or two to hit… which is plenty of time for the initial alert on my phone. … unless I’m asleep. Lol.

[@Shaden0040]

Best way to prep for a NW mega quake is to move east of the appalachianson the downward slope to avoid tsunamis on the east coast.

[@marius2k8]

I can't believe how many comments I scrolled through with no one mentioning Dutchsinse. He's been predicting earthquakes for years.

[@chibill_mc]

There is also the supposed affects to RF propagation over the area am earthquake will take place a few hours before.

[@EMBer3000]

Predictions are tough... if the thing you are predicting isn't very uniform in behaviour you'll have to build either an incredibly broad model or you have to build lots of different models to try an catch the behaviour of all the variations. No two earthquakes are exactly the same because no two parts of the earth are exactly the same. It may be that in some types of earthquake something happens that alert animals to what is coming so they can escape but that probably doesn't always happen. In some cases it might be that radon, EM waves or magnetic variations might show up before an earthquake but that won't always be true. I think the closest they'll get to predicting earthquakes might be to study lots of faultlines in incredible detail and build a model for each one separately that has a good chance at predicting that ones behaviour before trying to extrapolate a common model from all the separate models they've built. This will take a long, long, time.

[@MasterGeekMX]

and I'm here, watching this after an earthquake of 7 hit my hometown.

[@rogaineablar5608]

11:25 The Devil's Staircase is called punctuated equilibrium in evolutionary biology. 27:00 Don't forget the FEMA guy who said anything west of I-5 will be a write-off in the PNW when the big one hits.

[@dabilliebean]

My cats react to earthquakes like at least 2 seconds before it hits, they react. I'm thinkin they just hear it coming before I can...

[@marcoasturias8520]

2 seconds? I mean, the thing doesn't get wild until a few seconds. That's like saying you can feel a punch before it hits you because it touches your nose.

[@dabilliebean]

That's my point. No one is predicting anything, they JUST hear it coming. My statement was more on how cats have better ears than humans, than anything to do with earthquake prediction.

[@laceygrasser1980]

We had a pretty big earthquake in November, 2018 and my dog had no idea. He just laid where he was looking concerned as stuff crashed down around him.

[@mikesully7212]

best "neat!" i've heard in a LONG time :-)

[@MariaMartinez-researcher]

Any other Chilean here, proud of living in the land of the strongest earthquake ever? 💪

[@kaygee301]

😂

[@Kanitoxx]

At this point we bet on the exact magnitude of the earthquakes we feel. Extra points in predicting where it was xD

[@ZielAmerak]

para mi cualquiera bajo 7 sigue siendo temblor y rechazo el llamarlo terremoto.

[@robertgermainii7813]

I live in Alaska that's earthquake Central

[@unums]

_Tracking Device for Birds Migratory Patters may or may not include, but is not limited to:_ *Remote Micro-Audio Recorders which may or may not be altered or re-configured devices as well as and or may or may not contain, in limited quantities, Micro-4K Resolution Digital Cameras.*

[@thevenbede767]

As a seattlite we always did earthquake drills all the time at school

[@HodorsLeftShoe]

Sweet.

[@artdonovandesign]

As we're closing in on 2022, any updates on that animal earthquake tracker study?

[@saiynoq6745]

Doing time for not being able to predict an earthquake this sounds like a villain origin story

[@twocvbloke]

I can't help but feel that people living upon the Cascadia fault are real-life versions of the "This is fine" cartoon... :S

[@G4mer_D4d]

I stayed at a beach house this weekend in the PNW "inundation" zone... BEAUTIFUL! But only way in or out are single lane highways, every hundred miles or so, that cut through windy, hilly and forested countryside.

[@Olllliv3r]

I am so glad i live in sweden, but also so sorry for those who live in areas with a lot of earthquakes.

[@Hex-Mas]

What about the "p-wave?"

[@Bananeisafree]

I understand the need for a better nomenclature ... I mean we had Quake, Quake 2 , Quake 3 Arena, Quake 4, Quake Wars Enemy territory, Quake Live then Quake Champions... I mean if science can predict the next Quake .. I'm all up for it ! (I'm sorry for wasting your time with this very dumb comment ... I'm just sad and alone ...)

[@Brenda-on7hy]

Question. Sheep farmer makes sure that all lambs get colostrum because of effect on future health. Does this correspond with humans? Implications for bottle fed humans?

[@ellenbryn]

Re: Animals. In home videos of quakes, it often looks like dogs and cats are reacting a few seconds before people in the videos notice anything or there's any visible or audible vibrations. Which makes sense, as dogs and cats' ears, ear hairs and whiskers should be more sensitive to vibrations and sound than we are. I suspect they're picking up the P-waves which speed ahead of the other waves as the shock spreads out. But in that case they're not picking up precursor signals, just the weakest outer fringes of the seismic waves arriving.

[@roguedogx]

2:35 I think we might just be vastly overthinking this. the crust is a brittle material, and it seems to be under a (mostly) constant force. but because it's brittle the breaking of the plates (earth quakes) are not predictable or consistent. so what might work could just be to do a very exact FEA analysis on the earth, and see what strains/stresses cause the earth to "break/earthquake". I realize this is reaching, and would be very complicated and expensive.

[@Runningrampage25]

Well with all the 6 + magnitude earthquakes that appeared lately definitely something big is coming it's only gonna be a matter of time will be now will be in a years time earthquake the so unpredictable but something big is definitely coming.

[@tim40gabby25]

Yes, but when?

[@vj.joseph]

Tuned mass dampers and shock absorbers should be added to newer building construction. Spring based side damper should be installed near all the small homes in cascadian zone already built, and being used now. Additionally, more advanced foundational spiral spring frequency absorbers should be used in smaller homes. People living in earthquake zones, must install these earthquake absorbing devices in their homes especially in Nepal, New zealand, japan, java, indonesia etc.

[@bolivarbenjaminguillenmedi8426]

You're awesome

[@samuelwestknee7134]

we are only scratching the surface on this

[@BriefNerdOriginal]

Oftentimes, more violent earthquakes happen within series of less violent ones. These series can last for more than one week. 5 days can be a nice alert time, but still the amplitude of the earthquake is not going to be foreseeable. But I still hope that it will somehow

[@Derpingmuffin]

This video really shook my world

[@StitchTheFox]

I really hate when I start watching a scishow video only to realize ive already seen it. it bums me out

[@areamusicale]

3:36 maybe we need to look at the behavious of birds or other animals. For example: cows sit down before it rain. Maybe some insects can predict them ... who knows?

[@thepackerssmacker8188]

Farm animals predicting earthquakes... Operation Steak & Quake

[@eoghanmcloughlin8854]

You said about the movement in earth , let's ponder what if it the lack of movement that gives animals the que . It's a build up of pressure like

[@mickeydangerez]

13:26 in and you haven't mentioned the sun once. I am going to watch the rest but if it doesn't mention the sun...

[@Kanitoxx]

Do you mean tidal effects?

[@freemovies411]

I really like this book called "The Hammer of Eden" by Ken Follet. Has to do with predicting/causing earthquakes, definitely worth a read. ouo)/

[@brandonmusser3119]

Looks like the changing of the magnetic poles to me I just watched a video on that not too long ago

[@brandonmusser3119]

May not be perfect but it seems really similar maybe it has nothing to do with anything I don't know

[@samiraperi467]

We're apparently starting to use optic fibers for locating quakes, because those things are everywhere and they're sensitive to distance changes.