CFP Rankings Bubble: Who Gets Left Out? - Josh Pate Cut

[@ugaladh]

no one wants to hear it in today's CFB, but smaller conferences with round robin schedules (like the past) would get rid of some of these issues.

[@chasedunagan]

If conference title losers get dropped out then something has to change. You cannot have an easier path to the playoffs by missing your own conference title game.

[@Braisedin]

Now wait. If they have 3 loses after the championship and every one else is a 2 loss or even 1. Do you have the same thought?

[@twistedtide]

@@Braisedin If theyre at 1 loss, then its worth a debate. 2 loses? No way in hell

[@chasedunagan]

Yes, because imagine this scenario. There are three 2 loss teams in a conference: 7th ranked 10-2 Bama 8th ranked 10-2 Georgia 9th ranked 10-2 Texas Now imagine because of tie-breakers Bama plays Georgia for the SEC title game and the loser gets kicked out of the playoffs. In that scenario the team that DIDN'T make the conference title game basically was guaranteed a playoff spot, while the teams that DID make the title game still had to win their conference title to make it into the playoffs. That doesn't seem right to me.

[@yoc329]

@@chasedunaganthis was always gonna happen with this model similar to how the 5 seed is the best seed to be in playoffs rn .conference championships might be gone soon nothing can be done because giving a bye if you made the. championship game is a horrible idea

[@willcruikshank7972]

The Big 12 and especially the ACC deserve one playoff spot

[@McSNIFFERY]

5 SEC teams? Josh Pate's SEC Show. A 4 Loss SEC team has a ~1% chance to make the playoff. I would argue theres a better chance that 2 SEC teams make it rather than 5.

[@kanedunnivan8183]

Lmao your shitty conference wishes there’d only be 2 sec teams in

[@CoastalBendFishNinja]

THIS! Josh….love the show…but you are insanely out of touch with reality on this, much like you were on expansion!

[@CoastalBendFishNinja]

A 3 loss team from ANY conference getting in is beyond stupid!

[@TheBlackAztec3]

@@CoastalBendFishNinjawhat if a team only loses to top 10 teams? I’d take a 3 loss SEC team making playoffs over another TCU vs UGA playoff game

[@McSNIFFERY]

Completely agree, he has to be rage baiting at this point bc you can’t really believe the committee would put a 3 even 4 loss SEC team in. Especially when teams like Tennessee and Bama have losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt. @@CoastalBendFishNinja

[@snapfinger1]

You can’t get blown out in a conference title game & advance. LSU is toast. Beck/Georgia on life support.

[@d.weathers]

Yes ! A&M would be what their record says they are

[@ericmitchell9087]

Can you make a Strength of Schedule ratings?

[@SurferRC]

They need to show how they calculate this because right now it is biased….

[@splintercell320]

The problem with the playoff format is the auto bids for conference champions. Instead of champions, make the auto bids the highest rated team of each conference in the college football playoff rankings. This way you create incentives for both the higher and lower ranked teams pre-conference championship game. The higher rank is playing to keep their first round bye, and in some cases their spot in the playoff if say the rankings were an 11 playing a 13. The lower rank would be playing for a playoff spot more than likely, or in some cases potentially trying to jump the higher rank to get a first round bye. This keeps the regular season more relevant as well as doing well in the regular season 9/10 keeps your spot in the playoff even if you lose your conference championship game, and doesn’t necessarily give the lower rank a free ride into the playoffs because they won 1 game, but went 9-3 in the regular season. Every game should matter.

[@fierrohughes6018]

If Tennessee has two losses and Alabama does too, then head to head matchups don't matter if Tennessee is left out but not Alabama

[@jakebumbalough3377]

Facts👍

[@easonmizell9330]

Tennessee won’t have a head to head advantage. Georgia and ole miss will also be there with two losses

[@Grgfkn3076]

Yup and I guarantee you they will give it to Bama they always do even if we beat them they just can’t keep Bama out

[@Rebsfan11]

ya, but we all hate Tennessee (rightfully so, you bring it all on yourselves) so i would be ok with this

[@fierrohughes6018]

@Rebsfan11 we all need haters...keep hating 🤣

[@RioWatchesYT]

So you’re saying if Indiana goes 11-1 in the big 10 with their only loss being to the current #2 ranked buckeyes, they’re out? Seems insane

[@CannaBishopOG]

Strength of schedule...no quality win. Take all emotions out and look at it black and white.

[@rustyshepperd]

​@CannaBishopOG lol look at Georgia and Michigan's same strength of schedule and get back to me.

[@SurferRC]

@@CannaBishopOG🤡

[@SurferRC]

@@rustyshepperdexactly these clowns dont understand sports let alone football 😂

[@theunikronus7204]

If SMU wins out the regular season but then loses to Miami, their only 2 loses on the season would be to the ACC conference champion and presumably the Big 12 conference champion. A world in which a team like that gets left out is a terrible look for college athletics. We expanded to 12 teams for a reason and the playoff committee has the weight of the world on them to get it right the first time, because if they don't, and the first ever 12 team bracket is super controversial, I could see significant doubt from the fans of college football as a whole.

[@yoc329]

no it’s not the rest of their games were against horrible teams you have two/3 hard games a year and you lost both or 2/3 of them that’s not a good look

[@adamharper8456]

@@yoc329SMU is 1 of 5 teams to beat 2 ranked teams this year. 1 of which was a blowout of Pitt. SMU absolutely has a difficult schedule, and they’ve killed everyone else they played besides a Duke team on the road (Duke is 17-3 at home in the last few seasons)

[@Jack_gilbert158]

yeah and theyve playedddd NOBODY

[@yoc329]

@@adamharper8456pitt isn’t good. who did pitt best this year please let me know .and i even mentioned their 1 win of pitt even th they aren’t good if they lost to byu and then lose in the championship that means out of there 3/4hard games they lost most or half of them😂that’s not a difficult schedule a byu team with the60+ sos and pitt team to til this day still hasn’t beaten anybody good and has the 78th sos . and then you are gonna count another loss in the acc championship 😂that’s not difficult at all in fact smu has the 73rd sos which is OBJECTIVELY not hard

[@SurferRC]

@@yoc329doesnt mean you arent a top 5-8 team nationally

[@willcruikshank7972]

If head to head match ups against teams with the exact same record don’t vault the head-to-head winner over, why are we even playing the games?

[@Grgfkn3076]

Exactly why do we play the games if they’re just going to hand it to Bama again every year? So stupid

[@SurferRC]

Exactly its who the committee likes, game results dont matter. Thats why the committee is the problem….

[@tonesmith5728]

sooo, if Indiana wins out, do they play Oregon in the B10 championship? That's if Oregon wins out as well...I'm so confused as to how OH no state is ranked ahead Indiana for one and while not even 2nd in their conference still ranked at #2 and can't even play in their conference championship at this point. I'm I reviewing an automatic bid of some sort?

[@greenman5255]

Indiana will play for the B1G Championship if they win out and Ohio State will play for the B1G Championship if they win out.

[@John_Hoover]

Let’s just include the entire SEC in the playoffs and avoid this whole problem…

[@DonovanJohnson-m9e]

Kennesaw State clears conference

[@tonirivers12345]

If you think Indiana or Miami are better teams than the top 5 in the SEC I have a beach front property in Florida to sell ya

[@SurferRC]

@@tonirivers12345lol they are though. Dont let bias blind you. Ask uf who is harder to score on and stop…

[@tonirivers12345]

@@SurferRC 😂😂 Miami can’t stop high school offenses, ZERO ranked wins, and lost to GT. They’re garbage.

[@Biffs_R_Us]

Tennessee should absolutely get in over alabama if its 2-2 with UT having the head to head. Cause Tennessee would also have a win over vandy in that world and you cant tell me theres a world where bama is more deserving when Tennessee straight up beat them. Lets just go beat UGA so that doesnt even get called into question. gbo

[@adrianjenkins5877]

Yeah, but look at 2022. I know it's not a perfect comparison, but Alabama ended up ranked more highly than Tennessee, despite the fact that Tennessee beat Alabama, and also crushed (on the road) LSU, the other team that beat Alabama. The committee likes Alabama. The pollsters like Alabama. And often, the metrics like them, too (although the metrics also favor Tennessee this year - I think both a 2-loss Alabama and a 2-loss Tennessee make the playoffs, despite Josh's pontifications). People are trying to paint this as a comparison between Alabama and Tennessee, because they don't like the idea of both going.

[@Grgfkn3076]

Yup and you just watch they’re just going to hand it to Bama like they do every year so stupid why do we even play the games they’re just going to give to Bama again

[@jacobwilhide1189]

Tennessee is going to get destroyed by Georgia

[@Nowitsfound]

I don't care who it is if you got 4 losses you don't belong in the playoff

[@Grgfkn3076]

It’s so stupid that you can beat a team straight up with the same record but since it’s Alabama they get in over you I’m calling it now they will give it to Bama over TN because Bama is Bama and that’s the way it’s always been

[@SurferRC]

Yup its why the committee is the worst idea in sports and no other sports do it….

[@ej3zx]

My stance would be: if the winner of a conference championship was considered a playoff team in the most recent playoff rankings, the loser (if also included as a playoff team in those rankings) cannot miss the playoffs.

[@Braisedin]

What if they have 3 losses after the championship?

[@ej3zx]

Chances are, there are other 2 loss teams in that conference that don’t make the championship game. The 3-loss team shouldn’t be penalized for being good enough to make the conference championship while worse 2-loss teams get a pass

[@SurferRC]

@@Braisedinwhy would that matter?

[@SurferRC]

@@ej3zxexactly

[@truthlevato]

2:10 JP cut from same cloth as "i feel like " Fornelli. Agree with you ND should be bubble team - but you're the Data guy & TF is the feeling guy. You still against the platoff expansion like Fornelli JP?

[@reedslick7439]

When can we see the math behind the model?

[@Worldsportstalk24]

If a ND team that is ranked at 10 wins its last 4 games and drops out then what the hell are we doing lmao

[@djhmrtime6636]

Same thing they were doing on 9/7/2024....

[@Worldsportstalk24]

@ braindead comment

[@sethchapman7453]

Won’t happen. Think josh is completely wrong on a lot of this.

[@yoc329]

not losing to bad g5 teams then mad about not getting in playoffs

[@Worldsportstalk24]

@@yoc329 11-1

[@Johnj-t4k]

The committee and the NCAA will not award teams such as Indiana a home game due to the fact that their stadium capacity(53K) is less than the bigger named schools. Unless those schools run the table and force the NCAAs hand. It's all about the money. Thats why Penn state will remain ahead of Indiana in the Playoff rankings. If Indiana loses to OSU, the best seed they will get will be 9. The committee will position a 2-loss team ahead of Indiana just on that factor alone.

[@thecrazynodak]

South Carolina was NOT a "good win" for Alabama haha you must have meant Missouri

[@SurferRC]

Neither was mizzou

[@tonirivers12345]

Yall want teams with 0 ranked wins to go over teams who are 4-1, 3-2 against top 15 teams.

[@ronself1979]

Tennessee will have 2 more losses. Georgia and Vanderbilt. So that problem will work itself out

[@bamuh4506]

I find it funny that they created a playoff format considering conference realignment that guarantees more teams being upset every single year when you can argue their intention was to make more people happy

[@vinnythewebsurfer]

If Texas A&M is the second best team of any other conference, we wouldn’t be saying that conference should have FIVE TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS.

[@MBarberfan4life]

The 12-team playoff will produce controversy. In case you don't believe me, apply it to the past. 2019 Alabama would have been left out; literally because they lost to LSU---one of the best teams ever.

[@matthew87451]

The auburn loss is the one that kept them out that year. Plus, that team (as of CFB selection) had had 2 matchups against teams in the top 25 and lost to both. As good as they were, that team did not deserve a playoff spot, even if it had been expanded.

[@wmrat1969]

@@matthew87451 Starting QB was hurt with high ankle sprain against LSU and still played decent, he got a season ending injury against Miss St and Jones took over. He lost to Auburn. I agree with you, even though Jones played lights out a year later they needed Tua to stay healthy that year.

[@jordangriffin908]

One reason you don’t like the playoffs is it diminishes the regular season games… yet you float the idea that despite beating team B we could still be left out at 10-2 with a win over Bama. Insane

[@judahalexander6946]

Perfectly explained, his ideology on the cfp expansion is y i unsubscribed to him. Dude is a pure hypocrite. Biased as hell. Yet idiots on here suck up to his every word & blatantly ignore is huge flaws

[@RAID3R63]

Miami is undefeated no more

[@josephdickinson5183]

Thats not fair to Indiana. Even if they lose to ohio state they should 100% be in the playoffs

[@CannaBishopOG]

Strength of schedule is in the 100's....

[@josephdickinson5183]

@CannaBishopOG that's not there fault. They are doing what they should. It has not been close with any of there games. Last year it was the same with Georgia and Michigan but nobody doubted them. Neither of them ever dropped below 5th

[@DevoLevo113]

@@josephdickinson5183it is there fault, they could have scheduled out of conference games better than they did

[@SurferRC]

Nope they play one game all year 😂

[@josephdickinson5183]

@@DevoLevo113 the game this year have been scheduled for 10 years. It's not that easy

[@jwc7215]

I don't mind a conference loser being left out, but you absolutely cannot have an at large from that conference who didn't make the championship jumping the team that made it and lost.

[@SurferRC]

Yes this

[@jackshaftoe1715]

Hey I'm a Duck but there are teams in the world other then Big 10 & SEC. You already destroyed the Pac12 who's next ? ACC sucks get rid of them ? Big12 by by ? It's only about Sports Betting Josh ?

[@georgeherring7370]

The acc is much weaker than big 10 and sec. Surely you realize.

[@SurferRC]

@@georgeherring7370not really BC and VT are equal to Mizzou and Vandy

[@mikekatura6657]

What needs to happen is this all undefeated ranked first then all one lost trams r ranked next then two lost teams and so on and so forth

[@John_Hoover]

Anyone who thinks Notre Dame isn’t one of the 12 best teams in the country right now hasn’t been watching them. It would be nonsensical to have them at 8-10 and then pull them out of the playoffs if they win out.

[@djhmrtime6636]

I watched them 9/7/2024. I don't see it.

[@DonovanJohnson-m9e]

would you rank them ahead of Tennessee if they lose to Georgia?

[@John_Hoover]

@@djhmrtime6636 Like I said … RIGHT NOW.

[@John_Hoover]

@@DonovanJohnson-m9e Georgia? If they’re playing Georgia they’re already in the playoffs and the question at that point is irrelevant.

[@sethrobinson9291]

4 loss Texas A&M isn’t doing crap 😂

[@Liam___ohara___]

If byu loses one game they’re done. However they run the table get into the CFP and get to the playoffs against Oregon or UGA we’ll have a 2022 CFP repeat where they just beat the shit out of them

[@SurferRC]

After they crush the b10 champ you mean like tcu did 🤡😂🤦🏼‍♂️

[@BassHuey]

The SEC is a mess. Tennessee beat Bama, Bama bests Georgia, Georgia hammers Texas, Texas is 1-loss but hasn't beat ANYONE good in the SEC. Then Ole Miss dominates Georgia. 5 very very good teams in the SEC and alot of good second tier SEC teams in LSU, South Carolina, A&M heck Vandy etc. Tennessee can make it easier if they beat Georgia next week but thats pretty difficult in Athens. Then what happens if A&M beats Texas in the last game of the year? Unless someone stumbles, the SEC championship game HAS to sort this all out but it probably wont. However for me, A&M and LSU is easy, if A&M loses to Texas, they're out. LSU is gone losing to Bama at home. 5 SEC teams in the CFP is the only fair way to go here but it just looks plain bad taking almost half of the CFP slots. Who wouldve known even a 12 team playoff is gonna be controversial? This is my SEC power-rankings as of current: (1)Tennesse, (1.5)Bama, (2-tied) Ole Miss/ Georgia (2.5)Texas. Tennessee losing to Ark doesn't look great even though Ark isn't a bad team at all.

[@SurferRC]

Mizzou vandy and lsu are pretty equal to BC VT and USC if you watch those games vs eachother