CGC and Comic Book Rarity [Featuring Matt Nelson]

What does rarity mean for comic books? How does the CGC census relate to the number of copies that exist? How much do ghost copies skew the census? CGC President Matt Nelson addresses these questions and more! Stay tuned for a great interview!
Acknowledgements:
All images of comic books and other collectibles from Heritage Auctions (Ha.com).
Images of Signature Series and Pedigree labels from CGC.com.
Thanks for watching, my friends!
-Keston

[@Swagglehaus]

Great conversation Keston! Interesting to hear Matt’s perspective on this.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Mickey! I know some folks may be tired of talking about rarity but not me :-). More to come. Appreciate your stopping by the channel and opening up the topic.

[@rickoquin510]

According to Overstreet price guide. Rare is 10 or less still exists. Between 10 and 100 is considered scarse.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Rick. I appreciate and respect the classic guidance provided by the likes of Overstreet and Gerber.

[@Saboten_Ken]

Hi Keston, you and Matt did a great job on the interview ! Especially liked Matt’s explanation of returning labels when regrading.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Saboten Ken! Good to hear from you.

[@MetalBum]

Just watched again. I love the history here

[@AlextheComicHoarder]

Great video as always. I have resubmitted a few books in the past and have always emailed CGC with the old cert numbers. I do it after the fact and I have always received a response from CGC thanking me for the information. It always reflects on the census a few days later. Great video and thank you for the great content as always my friend.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Alex! Thanks for commenting, brother. Glad to hear CGC sends out a thanks message.

[@davidevans-lv6uq]

Great interview and great to hear interpretations of the topic. Some have tried to pin a certain number while others seem to pick whether the book is even relative as a key issue or not. It also doesn’t quite address a newer fact of forced rarity in issues. I have a couple of precode horror books that are rare even by the count on CGC( under 30 or so) but may not be highly desirable like a key issue might be. Rarity does not sometimes equate to the value of a book but understanding how many issue of a certain book actually existing might really help in the end. Wish all these guys that slab books would share there info even more….it would tremendously help the community.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, David. Totally agree w your sentiment. What most collectors are seeking is a decent estimate of existing copies of books. For extremely valuable books, cgc census serves as a decent proxy. Anything else, it’s highly biased (underrepresentation, especially in low grade).

[@SouvenirProgramsHere]

Howdy K ! What a Great Show ! How nice you can get the Head Honcho on your Show. Real professional as always. C ya !

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Awesome. Great to hear from ya, Tom!

[@MakeRoomCollectibles]

Why is no one asking Matt Nelson about the warped inner wells that are damaging the books?

[@ComicCollectorGeek]

Good interview he answered a lot of questions. I had speculated that as a comic becomes more valuable the more likely you will see it getting graded regardless of the grade. I looked into the rate at which the books were getting graded.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, CCG! Thanks for watching. Definitely. There's a certain threshold -- something like $500 or $1000 a point -- where I believe that the CGC census distribution starts looking like the distribution in existence. Otherwise, the CGC census is biased towards the higher grade books.

[@coldwarcomics8823]

Keston, this was an excellent interview with Matt. I learned quite a bit.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Carl (I hope I spelled your name correctly). Always interesting to hear Matt's perspective.

[@royberger2259]

If we ascribed value according to print run, underground comics would have the greatest value.

[@funnymcfunfuns1455]

Value is ascribed to print runs as long as it's iconic. It needs to be something everyone knows about but almost nobody has. Like that 1of1 Magic card Post Malone paid 2million for recently.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks for the comment, Roy. Definitely. And, I'm glad you brought this topic up. Lots of cool indy and underground books with small print runs. Using print runs as a proxy for rarity works best for books from 1970 forward. Many golden age books had huge print runs but super high attrition making the once common far rarer than many small-print-run comics.

[@marclapuma]

Thanks for the excellent interview Keston and Matt. PS would love to see a video from you Keston showing off some of your favorite books in your PC!

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Marc. Appreciate it. I put out a top 25 video a couple years ago. Will be getting a few great books in the next few months. Perhaps it is time to put another one together!

[@RedRockShane]

Loved the conversation on returned labels possibly influencing the grading. I've often wondered about this. I hope Matt moves forward with some type of monetary incentive. I think that would have a real impact on reducing ghost numbers.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Shane! Yeah that would be nice. Some type of incentive would be appreciated.

[@swpdisciple]

Excellent interview! I always thought absolute rarity is 200 copies or fewer but at the same time if there were only 200 copies of new mutants 98, it would feel much rarer than Superman 1 due to higher demand.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Swpdisciple! Thanks, my friend. I still like the notion of under 200 being rare, which most early golden age comics would qualify for. Ten or fewer seems too stringent to me but I know a lot of old school guys like the more stringent definition (which I respect). The interplay between rarity and demand is an interesting topic :-)

[@swpdisciple]

@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 yes, as a cat that studied economics in undergrad, this is a topic that’s near and dear to my heart!

[@roywatson7916]

CBCS and PGX have numerous books graded as well. I know they are nor respected like CGC price wise but they do have high numbers in highly sought after books. I like the point he made on attrition. Golden Age books are more rare and some books do command good price due to that rarity. Demand has a lot to do with it.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Roy. Definitely. Rarity AND demand play a significant role in price.

[@roywatson7916]

@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 always great videos.

[@benellison5668]

Rarity is supply. By itself, untethered from demand, ain't much. We focus too much on rarity because it's easier to count how many things there are, as opposed to "how many could be sold"

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Ending Soonest. Thanks for the comment. Yeah, if talking about price I wouldn't talk about rarity in isolation. Regarding price, if there is similar demand for a book then rarity will certainly drive up price :-)

[@Fenimore.Cassidy]

Great interview Keston! The term 'rarity' can be subjective. Someone can think that because they can't find a particular book for sale that it's rare - and that might be true in that instance. It certainly doesn't mean that there aren't plenty out there, though. When collecting took off in the 70's/ 80's people just sat on the books and likely there are plenty out there. Looking at the census as a benchmark is a pretty good ballpark for the more "modern" books.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Fenimore. Definitely. In my opinion, it's not wise to conflate market availability with rarity. For valuable books, I would consider CGC census a more reliable gauge of rarity than market availability although the two are highly correlated.

[@Dr.HUGENSTEIN]

There are def ghost copies. I cracked 2 and was too scared to send them back to CGC after what I received. I learned an expensive lesson.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks for sharing, Doc! Definitely. The question is how many, and for what books?

[@funnymcfunfuns1455]

Why were you scared too send them back?

[@DanSchawbel]

Great interview.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thank you, Dan!

[@VaryingViewpoint]

Great interview!

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Appreciate it, VV.

[@User8vfjhejf]

Well I always send back the labels, even the cheap stuff with thousands on the census

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Well done! Thanks for the comment.

[@outlawtupac]

In regards to total numbers: don‘t forget the many many raw copies out there somewhere unbeknownst to us, and also there are not only CGC but PGX and CBCS graded comics, and yes graded ghost comics (resubmissions without old labels) are certainly a factor as well

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks OutlawTupac! Good points. Definitely a lot to account for.

[@arthurtripp6922]

Also.comic books were sent overseas during Golden Age. Also the creation of the 1964 Comcon went national news. Marvel had lower print run due to.DC controlled distribution.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, Arthur. It's interesting to look at the Marvel keys from the early '60s to the late '60s. By the late '60s, it is obvious some collectors are trying to conserve their books in pristine condition. For example, check out 9.0s and higher for FF 48, 52, Silver Surfer 1, or Iron Man 1...compared to the earlier Marvel keys (e.g., FF1, AF 15, Hulk 1).

[@MetalBum]

Great wuestions

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks, MB. I try my best :-)

[@thousandaireradio3199]

Supply is only half the equation. Maybe not even.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks 1000+! Appreciate the comment. No doubt.

[@Silverspidey18]

Thanks Keston, enjoyed the interview. Which comics do you feel are the most prone to have ghost copies on the CGC census? This could be an interesting list.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi Silverspidey18. That's a good question. I don't have any special insight here. That said, riffing on Matt's take, I'm guessing there aren't many ghost copies for high grade silver or any valuable golden age books. Some of their value is based on perception of rarity, so returning labels aligns interests. Following that logic, in the opposite direction, a ghost 9.6 ASM 300 created by a resub-turned 9.8, is like a drop in the ocean. I still hope someone would return the 9.6 label but the ghost simply doesn't matter as much.

[@Silverspidey18]

@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842Hello Keston, I appreciate the response. Yes, it would make sense for collectors to return all cracked labels, especially for high grade comics, I’m hopeful most do. Anyway, I really enjoy your work, thank you! Regards, Trevor

[@LODGE4444]

Fact #1 - Silver age comics are MUCH more common than golden age comics. Fact #2 - Only a small fraction of all golden age and silver age comics that exist have been sent to CGC.

[@comiccollex958]

Not facts and depends on the book. For example I suspect a high percentage of Action 1s and AF15s have been graded

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Jeff. I agree with you in broad strokes. Generally speaking, the golden age keys are 10 to 100 times rarer than the silver-age keys. And, my guess is that this ratio likely extends to most non-keys. Regarding the books CGC has graded. Most silver and golden age comic books are not worth slabbing, like books of any era.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, CC. My thoughts too. I've heard a few other comic experts say they believed about half the major grails have been graded. Interesting to hear Matt's take: about 2/3 of Action 1s is his guess.

[@comiccollex958]

@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 👍

[@christophertomasello1227]

Ok-rarity is relative to the number of collectors- in other words supply and demand. So, if every single person on the planet, (around 9 billion) aggressively collected comic books, then every single existing comic book today would be extremely rare.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Christopher. I think that's an interesting take and logically accurate. Personally, I prefer to (mostly) separate out the variables of rarity (supply) and desirability (demand) when discussing comics. That helps me understand the more complex variable of price that is a blend of the other two variables.

[@arthurtripp6922]

Rember the Golden Age had paper drives and comic books.were.being sent overseas. Also rember the three quatert covers sold.for five cents. And Yes I.was at the 1964 Comicon with Bernie Bubnis and Ron Fradkin and DC.and.Marvel gave us Artwork given out free.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Glad, you found the channel, Arthur! Wow. Must have been an awesome time to be a collector. What are your favorite types of comics?

[@arthurtripp6922]

This is a strange fact Fantastic. Four 1 was reissued and Fantastic Four.2 was hard to find limited amount. And during the 50s had.a book burning. Coverless comics were sold for 5 cents.

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

That is cool, Arthur. Thanks for sharing!

[@christiantolliver4042]

Relative scarcity. Are you tripping over X-men 1s no but not too difficult to find

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Hi, Christian. Thanks for commenting. X-men 1 is a good example. It's plentiful relative to an Action 1 but rare relative to a Spawn 1!

[@MetalBum]

Hey buddy. Thanks for reminding me that my comics are all commons. Hahahha 😊😊😊😂😂😂😢

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

MB. Good to hear from you. Fewer than 10 copies is such a stringent standard for rarity :-). I don’t think I have any books that are that rare.

[@MetalBum]

@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 eek well then I guess I have uncommon books! 😉 I think too few discuss the amount of some of the common books out there. But also keep in mind the other side of the supply coin is the demand side too. But that can change w time. I guess supply is more set.

[@stevenblack6049]

Rarity In Age. Rarity In Condition. Rarity In Numbers. Rarity In Existence. Rarity In Availability. Rarity In Value And Purchase Price. Seldom Seen But Hardly Ever Found And Actually Unique!😅*

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Haha. Rarity in value and purchase price. That's a good one. Great to hear from you, Steven!

[@latenite.comics]

That background music is so subtle. This was an entertaining and insightful interview. Well crafted questions btw 👍

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Thanks for the kind words, Latenite. I like putting music in the background but don't want it to overwhelm :-)

[@brute_nm]

Great interview!

[@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842]

Appreciate it, Derek!