Debate On The US Dollar: Will It Soar Or Sink From Here? | Brent Johnson vs Matthew Piepenburg

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In this video, we're witness to a "meeting of the minds" between two top monetary experts, who each will argue their predicted path for the US dollar from here.
We're very fortunate to be joined by Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and developer of The Dollar Milkshake Theory, which will serve as the foundation upon which today's discussion will be built.
Serving as a counterpoint perspective will be Matthew Piepenburg, Commercial Director at Matterhorn Asset Management AG - GoldSwitzerland
This is not a debate so much as a "co-exploration", as there are many points our speakers agree on. But there are definitely a few where they see things differently. And over the next hour, we'll drill down together on those points of differentiation, to see if we can't make the path ahead for the US dollar clearer to discern.
#dollar #money #currency
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[@adam.taggart]

Don't forget to SUBSCRIBE this channel & hit the LIKE button!

[@DD00FF]

I hit the LIKE button Adam. I see you are nodding as I'm writing this 😀

[@heldaneurbanus5135]

Ever since you mentioned this planned discussion some days ago I have been really looking forward to it! Edit: Very interesting conversation. I think the power the Fed has is overstated, Highly recommend the Eurodollar University content here on the 'Tube. I was sceptical but over the past year Jeff convinced me that the Fed is more or less irrelevant to the creation of the dollar outside the states because the Eurodollar market is so much larger, and so opaque. This is very clear from interest rates. You touch on this briefly, but I think it is a very important topic.

[@Ramzi_9]

Adam congrats on your new adventure, i follow you cause you provide honest information which most youtubers mislead for there hidden agendas! to answer your head lines ( Sideways!!! dxy short term soar!) i will tell you the next move later ;)

[@Mohannaddess]

Grateful to you and your esteemed guests, the content/topics you bring are top level, Adam, I would follow you wherever you land!

[@inittowinit928]

Thank you Adam good to see you going on your own. Chapters would be most helpful so when we review we can find the discussion points. Thanks again great job. PS I stopped watching Wealthion.

[@graceandbobpaskert245]

The world is a better place when people can debate, agree and disagree without having to be right. Thank you.

[@junaidarif9932]

Couldn't agree more. Really enjoyed this talk

[@bpb5541]

These are real men. They are respectful of each other. Even if they differ in views. They don't call each other names, interupt, degrade, or bilittle. Very classy. I thought these type of folks didn't exist anymore. This is how it's done. Bravo to both of you. Thanks Adamn.

[@Michael-qy1jz]

Wealthion is running a show at the exact same time, and here we are with Adam ;)

[@sma5605]

Let’s face it… Adam was Wealthion

[@Michael-qy1jz]

@@sma5605 Absolutely!

[@hughjanis6439]

What happened?

[@Michael-qy1jz]

@@hughjanis6439 My understanding is that they pushed Adam out so Adam created his own channel.

[@thomasdonohue4494]

I can’t imagine having two better people on the show to “debate” this topic. Great job!

[@rudeawakening3833]

So RARE to see a stellar interview all the way around ! Adam - letting the men speak without interruption is ONE of many reasons why I’m a subscriber ; BOTH guests were TOTAL gentleman to each other - BRAVO !!!

[@codysimmons658]

Great job getting these two men together, Adam. Their insights into the world alone are more valuable than money. Happy Thanksgiving

[@DMatalas]

This is your best show ever. It shows what happens when to very smart educated people debate one makes decision based on emotion the other experiences without political bias

[@michaelv5546]

Thank you I love this format where two great thinkers come on to debate! keep it up Adam.

[@davomac1986]

The more I listen to someone challenge Brent, the more it looks like he has figured how this is going to play out.

[@aguywhohikes1271]

Yes!!! Adam congratulations on the new channel. You’re a star in this space buddy.

[@sewnsew6770]

Glad you were able to get these two guests together Adam. They are addressing the fundamental question of our time

[@mooselodge3881]

Fabulous Adam! Incredible thought-provoking conversation

[@popsmcgee9775]

Fantastic format, Adam. Thank you!

[@tuhingatoha1134]

Adam, even allowing for some of your best "previous" guests, IMO, this is one of the best open discussions I have seen from two gentlemen who I respect very highly indeed. It is a great format for great minds like Matt and Brent to simply listen to and respond to each other. Thank you sir!!

[@AB-fq4mr]

Good job. Hope you bring on Ivy Zelman next. She is starting to switch from neutral to bearish. Would be a really good time to bring her on for housing.

[@user-vy2wd6tr2p]

I think the format of two experts going back and forth was great. You should look to add this format as a regular occurrence. Great work as always Adam.

[@practiCalfMRI]

Outstanding. Do please get these two gentlemen back on after any momentous moves in either DXY, the Fed funds rate, or global macro conditions. Many potential scenarios were explored. Be great to hear how they redefine their thinking as big events unfold. Maybe a quarterly or biannual event?

[@PE-TX]

Great show and great job as usual Adam!

[@aarong8933]

This year one thing I’m thankful for is Thoughtful Money! 😊

[@johnnygotshadow]

Adam, you're a beast. You consistently get the smartest people on your programs. Great work.

[@katiek4977]

Adam, I've been watching you since the Wealthion days (haha, that will eventually make me old school). This is the absolutely best interview you've done. Thank you.

[@williampaul5997]

I've been watching your interviews for over 15 months now and this is the best one so far!!

[@stevensmith8580]

Adam, You have managed some great interviews, but arranging this debate is your best work so far. Thanks

[@adam.taggart]

So glad you think so!

[@user-tl6xt2cm5y]

Out of the ballpark. Letting two experts discuss through their views of a big problem is a wonderful compliment to the other style of interviews that you do.

[@NiftyGuy100]

Much of this back and forth conversation (debate) was beyond my baseline grasp of the fundamental economic principals of currency but what I will say it that was really nice to see a civil debate between two people with differing opinions on some points. I think that is so lacking these days. Civil debate. We need that in our society.

[@chucklander5475]

Thank you, Adam. I thought the conversation was very thought provoking. Your guests are obviously knowledgeable people.

[@philwindows6932]

Absolutely fantastic talk show, Adam, you will succeed with this channel. You are a genius when it comes to interviews. You allow the guest to lead and put there opinions forwards without holding your own opinion. Longterm you should have your on TV channel. Keep up the excellent work.

[@nengnengnengable]

Adam, this was incredible. Getting two of your best guests to thoughtfully debate currencies and macro from opposing viewpoints.

[@johnbirman5840]

As a foreigner who’s lived in the USA for 40 years but have worked overseas for a number of years and travelled much as well, I can’t disagree with Brent: What’s the alternative to the dollar? We think of tying the dollar to Gold (and I own gold - about 10% portfolio), but the rest of the world thinks of tying their currency to the dollar. We’re a Big country. We’re a Powerful country. We Cannot be ignored. Some might bring up various other hegemonic currencies like the pound that dominated at one time. But England was never as Big in their natural population, natural country size as the US. We’re the Walmart of the world. And everyone else (except for China) are minor chains, or mom and pop stores. As Mark Twain said: “the reports of my death have been vastly exaggerated”. Likewise the dollar.

[@rof8200]

The alternative is decentralised ledgers where anyone can transact globally instead of SWIFT.

[@HectorYague]

​@@rof8200there is zero chance that, should FIAT reach the breaking point of collapse, governaments will sit back and give up control of their monetary policy to BTC or any other non-guvernamental currency operating unrestrictedly in the cyberspace. Instead, they will ban it (by criminal law if necessary) just as they banned gold in early 20th century. Again, there is zero chance that govts around the world will yield one of their most powerful tools of control (their currency) for the better sake of the people.

[@burebista11]

It is not about the dollar to be replaced it is about alternatives . Dollar matter should be looked at not from issuer point of view but also of the user . What I see is China dumping US bonds gradually so don't loose to much from their value , Japan to follow if yen is to be propped . Platforms like mbridge and mariana that facilitates use of national currencies.. Assets matter leads to commodities witch for now are low but after 2025 as ' our currency your problem ' will become ' 'our commodities your problem'' . Regarding US debt is another angle Dollar should be looked at not only as demand /supply . If the rest of the world decide not to peg their currency to dollar but instead to a basket oh currencies or commodities .

[@audio-obsession8845]

Thank you all for the time to debate and give everyone food for thought! Grazie!

[@peterdorahy8331]

At DXY=150 the US will be importing deflation so won’t US interest rates be 0%? I think we will all be turning into Argentina (ie all using the USD) or a common world currency. I loved this discussion and Brent’s great work (and he is such a humble, decent man)

[@ivovelikovski7936]

What a gentleman's discussion! Thank you Adam!

[@samuelnakai1804]

I would love to see more of these debates between two differing opinions. This could be a new financial commentary format.

[@zkal11]

Great discussion! Hoping for round 2 whenever you all have time!!

[@LeoGarcia-hu2wb]

Congrats Adam for Thoughtful Money. Cheers from Colombia. This 'cara a cara' is a great idea.

[@dustinhartlyn]

Thank you for the debate Adam! I love hearing two thought leaders toss around these ideas.

[@peggyh1395]

Wow, this was amazing, Adam - your best yet imo! I’m a senior financial novice of moderate means who has rarely ventured beyond savings and CDs (but bought iBonds in early 2022 - wohoo!) and I have learned so much from you and your wonderful guests over the years. The discussion today between these two fantastic minds was exceptional. I don’t pretend to understand everything but I love to learn. and am so happy that desire hasn’t dwindled with age!

[@biden-putin-stalin]

I am cynical also, like Brent. The sytem is in trouble, due to who is running the system. I go to the store and I see hords of people who can't speak English with pallets of groceries, and I think to myself that these shoppers are shopping with government money? They are cleaning the shelves out, pushing prices up for American's who got a pay check and are trying to stretch it as far as they can go, and losing all of the time. In addition, they had taxes taken out of their earnings. It reminds me of a Clint Eastwood movie. The indian says they were forced onto a reservation and that the American politician praised them for what they did, and said that they 'endeavored to persevere'. After the Indians thought about it, they declared war. I think American workers and savers are there! A dictator is very possible when the system gives way. If we get a dictator, pray that he is a benevolent dictator, and not a murderous one. But you say: We have a Constitution with a balance of powers! Do we? Not if they ignore The Constitution and the balancing powers don'r or can't do anything about it. I would argue that we have a dicator already! They do whatever they want and nothing gets done to stop it, no matter what it is they are doing. Laws are broken and nobody cares, or at least not enough to stop it.

[@evegreenification]

Yep. Each person seems to carry their burden in silence too. For example, after an audit it was found I owed 30k to the irs. I paid it immediately. They lost track of the payment and demanded payment again. I was able to prove to them that the check had been cashed, but they claimed they could still not find it in their system. My accountant- tangentially it appears the pandemic ruined his wife's health- didn't do much for me and seemed preoccupied with his own problems. I could pay for an attorney, but I prefer to use what I have left to set up my homestead. Once that is accomplished, perhaps I will make an effort again to make this right.

[@jbru8725]

A must watch / listen. Such a great discussion. One of your finest Adam!

[@florianhladik1093]

That was a truly classy discussion. Thought provoking to the point that I’ll need to listen to it again, with focus and hitting pause multiple times, to digest all the wonderful nuances and arguments. Fun! Thanks!

[@4URinfinite]

So interesting. I love this format. Commentators keeping each other in line = a far more open minded view and likely, accurate outcome.

[@bradapotamus]

Great guests. Should do one of these every week with these guys!

[@maliavance6511]

So happy for you and your new channel! I am looking forward to all the great content.

[@nacetroy]

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money just keeps getting better! Great discussion, I side with Brent, but some great points made by Matthew.

[@bretgreen5314]

Good debate. Both men have provided great insight. Thank you Adam. Earning the "Thoughtful Money" badge.

[@2LFlynn]

Fantastic meeting of two great economic/financial minds! Definitely gives us much to consider as we move thru the fourth turning. Is there any chance we can get Matt and Brent to run for President!?

[@drmodestoesq]

Remember what California aqueduct builder Big Bill Mulholland said when asked if he would like to run for political office? "I'd rather give birth to a porcupine backwards."

[@williamanderson6384]

Adam, Matthew and Brent: Brilliant discussion! Thank you so much.

[@LarryManiccia]

Great content Adam. Some of the brightest minds in finance. Happy to listen to both sides and see both points of view to make my own conclusions.

[@sliekerstar]

Best discussion I’ve heard yet, thanks very much guys!

[@gandolfgrey5385]

@Thoughtful money so glad your still here I can't even bring myself to watch wealthion anymore

[@fibervector6734]

ADAM great conversation, thumbs 👍🏾 up . People should value this fantastic show and subset.

[@jeffm9145]

Excellent! Thanks for putting this together, Adam. Both gents are great analysts and made well reasoned points. Because the financial and economic systems are becoming more unstable, I believe either scenario or anything in between is plausible. Time will tell. I would love to see a similar debate on the short and mid-term direction of inflation which is an equally vexing topic.

[@ashleythomson9102]

That was the next level commentary, great stuff guy's

[@Kimber-bz9fe]

What an awesome & informative non complicated discussion. Thank you for making this easy to understand Gentleman. God Bless to you all from Oz Down Under

[@mikem5129]

Such a great episode. I really appreciate this intelligent conversation. Bring them back again, Adam!

[@fritzmcphail2421]

Love new show. I might suggest that at the end of each show you get 3 investment ideas from the Guest. Either specific investment or General Themes. Keep up the good work.

[@tomguu8569]

One of the very best financial debate in 23. Perhaps Adam should host the presidential devate in 2024. 😂

[@rs2841]

This was a good conversation. Thank you, Adam. It would be very valuable to have this type of setup with Brent and Luke Gromen. If you could make it happen it would be golden!

[@christinaholloway1587]

Love this format! Great job gentlemen

[@danielorzech4563]

Outstanding!!! Thank you for getting these two together. Awesome!!!!

[@abundantcapitalgroup]

Great conversation! The ability to have somewhat differing opinions and still have a conversation is inspiring. I think this would be a good way to move forward in this channel. People with differing opinions need to be a le to come together and have a discussion. Hopefully this channel will give us more of this.

[@neilsmith4732]

This was every bit as good as I thought it would be. Excellent interview Adam in facilitating such a high level discussion

[@robwindridge7804]

Thanks Adam , that was a fantastic informative conversation from 2 great guys. I listen to Brent every wk and Matt too . Congratulations on your new channel too . 👍🏻

[@jdkimpga]

Thanks Adam it is great conversation

[@4000angels]

This was such an AWESOME interview/debate. I absolutely LOVE this new channel, Thoughtful Money.

[@heidihelo5773]

Thank you for this thought provoking discussion. 😊

[@roek7630]

Great discussion. I found Matthew's arguments more compelling.

[@ILLUMINATOR49]

Extraordinary contributions to better understanding of the world financial system. Thanks y’all 😎🖖

[@ddhhayes]

Great show Adam! Thank you for producing.

[@ivanpvl833]

This is quickly becoming one of my fav channels. Hope you have more of the debates Adam such as this one! (With other guests too)

[@eddieb3299]

These guys are both as smart as they come. My guess is that they both end up being right. The dollar will launch mid 2024, we'll see a deflationary bust and the liquidity hoses will get turned back on forcing the dollar lower over time. I don't think the dollar index sees 140/150 but the rise will be destructive nevertheless.

[@jonathanlee5185]

👍Greatest line-up for a boxing match since Rumble In The Jungle.👍

[@buiux]

high level debate.

[@wheatcandle]

Two prize fighters going at it, just purely great content from these men. Godspeed!

[@sisterbrothers1677]

Holy crap! What an EXCELLENT discussion. So interesting. Great podcast Adam. TM off to a flying start.

[@a.r.4416]

Thank you Adam, you have outstanding qualities as an interviewer and podcast journalist. It is well reflected in your picks for the talking heads in the videos.

[@venividivici6961]

Great video, Adam! You'll reach 100k+ subscribers in no time! I really like the debate format. Please have more of them going forward.

[@gunfupanda4256]

Better than any movie I’ve watched recently. Super entertaining. Thanks Adam.

[@karstedt9987]

Excellent discussion. I really enjoy the back and forth like this, you get a real Venn Diagram on the arguments and positions. That overlap on different perspectives is often more valuable than any given perspective. When Brent was challenging to be presented with a scenario in which the rest of the world doesn't suffer worse GDP hits than the US though, I would have liked to bring up 'energy as GDP'. China 'might' be moving toward modern nuclear power, and if the US steadfastly refuses and takes too long to catch up, that would leave China with 100x + energy to grow their GDP in the face of a struggling US.

[@sageknoll3285]

Subscribed. What a great way to catch Adam’s new channel.

[@jpasillas72]

Outstanding discussion! Great job guys! Hope you do it again soon.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

What a great pre-Thanksgiving treat!!! Can't wait! 😂

[@mariacorso9113]

Great discussion nice to see everyone respectful with each different opinions . Watching from Australia.

[@Miguel-zc6tj]

Love the debate format. Great job!

[@user-qv7nn6gn2m]

Adam, excellent debate and exchange of ideas and different financial & economic outcomes. Thoroughly enjoyed!

[@user-si6mj7ex2v]

Thanks for the fascinating and enlightening discussion between two truly amazing intellectual heavyweights. This should be watched if for no other reason than to witness magnanimity and civility, which are currently in very short supply. However, if you are pressed for time, skip it and buy gold.

[@427krups]

Adam is the man. Great guests as well. Happy thanksgiving

[@padraigdevitt8755]

Brilliant Adam ! Feeling very privileged viewing those 2 heavy weights chat from the comfort of my living room 😊

[@buybullhornamazon]

Brilliant! This guy called it right over the past several months and years.

[@user-eb6vi2jc9o]

Is that a huge disc of gold in your background, Piepenburg?! Great job Adam, love this discussion.

[@aarongruber8539]

I like how concise Brent was. Found it very hard to get Matt’s points due to the stream of consciousness. By TLDL is that Brent thinks we’ll have more of the same dynamic of the USD as the past 15 years, but Matt thinks it is different this time.

[@davenchop]

most dont see the big change coming until it hits...dont be too surprised to see matt is correct.. just because something has gone a certain way for an extended period of time doesnt mean its not going to change abruptly

[@chezbabi]

Don't know what happened, but I'm happy to find you back in this new channe l!! Success !!!

[@elliotthovanetz1945]

Matthew = 10,000 words going around in a circle Brent = 10 precise, concise words to prove a point

[@Bullion-Bikes-n-BabesTour2024]

Look, I'm just a lowly former Merrill guy who did okay on the sell side. Way I look at it, it's gonna be a combination of both arguments; The world isn't going to immediately, collectively, give up on the dollar. As a former medic, there's a term we use called, "Death Breaths", clinically known at agonal respirations. It happens when death is imminent. Most of the time they're unconscious, but not always. In those so unfortunate to be conscious, they've lost all motor control, save for the eyes. And the eyes speak. Plead. Never, EVER giving up on life, wanting you to do something, anything to make them not die as their body sharply and violently sucks in all the air it can in raspy gasps. The currency will be the same. It will survive if for far longer than people expect it to as it scrambles for life, demolishing everything in its path; a mortally wounded bull in the ring. Deadly until the time of death. THEN it all comes down. I guess the argument is how fast the bull dies.

[@HectorYague]

Excellent conversation. Brent's arguments come on top: when he eloquently asked Matthew the key questions, Matthew motor-mouthed around without addressing the actual question.

[@peteschammann1592]

Another fantastic show Adam. Glad to see your new show is up and running.

[@CT-ig2oz]

Great learning from both point of views. Thanks so much, very appreciated and looking forward more.❤

[@user-mm1fc2yq9l]

Piepenburg is 100% class. I feel he held back, but this is how an effective conversation works. Winner? Wrong question. Both are brilliant--but Piepenburg, I feel, is right. In the end, all broke nations debase their money to save their corrupt system. His other interviews make this point factually clear. USA will be no different. Brent never answered the key question of where rates would be with a DXY at 150? He punted. Brent seems to confuse a relatively strong dollar despite gobbs of money printing with a dollar whose purchasing power has been dying since 71, as Piepenburg barely emphasized enough. But Piepenburg knows this. Relative strength means nothing to us on the ground. Great job Adam for such an awesome show.

[@alexsmith3576]

Brent doesn't confuse it. He is extremely clear that the purchasing power of the dollar will go down, hence why he always says Gold will win. He only argues that the US dollar is the least crappy of the fiat currencies in this relative struggle. Once you understand what Brent is saying, you get it's not a radical theory, it's just a description of how the global economy operates.

[@poletste1]

No, Brent is greatly confused. He obviously equates DXY performance with dollar strength when the only conversation to be had is how will the dollar perform when we are dealing with paying half our GDP on debt interest. The irony of the ridiculous milkshake theory is that we have the great power of having such a ridiculous debt burden. All you have to do is look at the debt/GDP of every other nation, then look at who constitutes the DXY basket and you will see the big picture of data manipulation and the future of the dollar.

[@alexsmith3576]

DXY is a measure of dollar strength relative to a basket of currency. Brent would agree with you on US problems, and if the DXY goes up with our level of indebtedness, it would confirm the theory, which has played out the last few years. Also keep in mind some other developed countries are more indebted than the US. If you include all debt/GDP, China is more indebted than the US. His theory is more for folks that live outside the US and deal in multiple currencies, or who always think EM is going to be big this year. It's like I said before, people that attack him always use a strawman. If you understand what he is saying, it's not controversial, he is just explaining how the current system works and why DXY has behaved the way it has the last 15 years despite many online thinking the US is a catastrophe while the rest of the world has no problems, and therefore being confused the last 15 years. @@poletste1

[@poletste1]

@@alexsmith3576 I agree, and I understand how the other currencies in the basket have devalued themselves to bring credence to the theory. I did not expect the DXY to remain this high myself. But what are we doing here? He says he's not an American sensationalist, but that is exactly what he sounds like to me. His online persona and identity seems to be emotionally tied to this "theory" and I just wonder if it's helping to cloud our ability to predict the future. Yeah, yesterday the DXY rose when every country debased their currencies simultaneously. It just seems presumptive to assume this will continue given the massive amount of my money we will clearly have to print to avoid default. And I disagree with his framing of our high interest rates as a symbol of strength and "bullying" to me it's clearly a weakness, our rates are where they are because the market started selling our bonds not because the fed "moved rates" Brent states rather smugly that our GDP is still rising, but it takes some pretty simple observation to determine it has in fact already been dropping. The official CPI is a joke and so are the nominal GDP numbers. What purpose does the theory serve? Don't buy foreign stocks? That seems laughable to me turkey, Iraq, much of Latin America and a host of foreign companies have outpaced American markets in dollar terms the last three years. And many of the best dividend paying stocks on the planet are on foreign soil. Sure, currency traders still use our dollar fo this an that. But thats a pretty small group of people and the sun still shines on other parts of the globe where people will engage in wealth creation regardless. It takes a minute to look at the debt burden and our interest payment obligations to realize the dollar is f#@cked, and that's what we should be focusing on, not oh well the yen is gonna die first. Once we're dead that's it. Money can be made in anyone's shitty currency as long as you're not letting shitty currencies rot to inflation in a cash account.

[@mareecrick2379]

I tend to agree with Matt also. If the world is in depression and US in recession what is driving demand for the dollar? Brent like zeihan can only conceive us hegemony though dollar dominance. It is not a substitute for military strength. India is always left out of the conversation. Modi will sit on the sidelines and reap the economic benefits of decline in both us and China.

[@timmusick9875]

Right out of the gate, Thoughtful Money is superb. Outstanding discussion!