Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse

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Zeihan on Geopolitics

Zeihan on Geopolitics

Күн бұрын

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@theasianjaywalker4455
@theasianjaywalker4455 2 жыл бұрын
I've lived in China for a decade and before I ever heard of demographics or Zeihan we, as in our social circles, we were figuring this out simply by seeing it on the ground and in our lives. In particular, by around 2016 we started seeing first waves of villagers being repatriated into the city. I am NOT joking when I tell you they arrive on buses and subways with their watermelon (no, seriously, they were given watermelons) and seriously, they are baffled and amazed at lights, automatic doors. Wave after wave were moving in and yet: There was no increase in traffic, in shops, there was no increased 'population density'. By 2018 we were all aware that nearly ever skyscraper was 90% empty. the 10% are almost exclusively various local/provincial government things 'youth sports committee HQ'. and as far as we can tell 100 of them don't actually 'do' anything but occupy an entire floor. in 2018 i was surprised when a Party member was the first to tell me that it was the 1st year there was, officially reported, more deaths than births in China PRC! (so one could easily believe it was much more ration and earlier than official govt reports). Villages are interesting, by 2019 some are as unoccupied as they were during the great migration of younger villagers to the coastal factories however there is this: actual villager-villagers remain gone but properties are being bought by wealthy retiring (usually party members) from cities. The Chinese version of retired 'Boomers' buying cottages they visit on holidays and weekends. the new arrivals became the odd stragglers and ever once in a while you'll see a 'Borat' or two arrive (they are Xinjiang Muslim people and they've finished Re-education are then assigned to jobs in the cities. they are dispersed so there is no possible 'enclaving') We live it. We see it on the ground. During covid in 2021 we routinely walked the dog past entire neighborhoods where you'll see massive new homes and barely anyone lives there and sometimes they're only occupied by the migrant workers who built them and just stayed there. It's actually a little 'bizarro world' too because we recently saw them complete a massive highway (GDP bloating, bridges to nowhere) and it opens and there is just the odd light traffic. A year later it's still relatively light traffic. we've taken high-speed train and there are routes that are so weirdly empty. 5 of us in a car that could seat 50. Eerie.
@cras17
@cras17 2 жыл бұрын
I lived in China from 2013-2016 and 2018-2019 in the city of Shenzhen. It was a wild experience. All of what you said sounds par for the course!
@bratcho1
@bratcho1 2 жыл бұрын
Interesting. Thanks for posting
@juanzingarello4005
@juanzingarello4005 2 жыл бұрын
Oh but the typical Wumao will tell you that this was intentional to encourage economic growth, connect rural regions to unify China with one network of railway to form a single thought of opinion, and other nonsense excuses to try to hide the fact that the majority of their HS rail system is bleeding money like crazy.
@mitchtherighteous
@mitchtherighteous 2 жыл бұрын
Seen villagers taking coolers of shrimp through airport security, its pretty gnarly.
@Leo137156
@Leo137156 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for sharing your experience.
@Inkling777
@Inkling777 2 жыл бұрын
A Chinese professor explained to me one of the key issues. The One Child program resulted in many older children, now adults, burdened with the care of two aging parents and couples with the care of four parents. Bearing that burden, they simply cannot afford more than one child at most. Laws dictating only a single child have morphed into circumstances that make more than one child difficult.
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
Don't forget absurd marriage expectations. Women need to be in their early 20s and men need to have a property. The irony is that kids are totally capable of helping with the seniors, and the seniors are great for babysitting the kids. It's an ironic level of chaos.
@cteal2018
@cteal2018 2 жыл бұрын
the only way out is immigration. But let's face it, the CCP is not the most perfect political system to attract people to come to a land.
@adamconner9302
@adamconner9302 2 жыл бұрын
@@dixonhill1108 In my time in China I had several Chinese friends that I all but begged not to buy a house because I knew it would loom over them and dictate their entire lives with how ridiculously overpriced the markets are in the cities. But what choice did they really have. They loved a girl and wanted to have a family with them, but of course the girl's parents would never allow their daughter to marry a man who doesn't have a home. It was such a sad scenario, the men knew what they were signing up for and its negative connotations and still had to do it if they ever wanted a family. Then on the flip side I met plenty of girls who were in their late 20s that would never find a husband because it's assumed that they are either damaged goods from a previous relationships or there is something seriously wrong with them. A lot of those same girls only got to that point by following the wishes of their parents and not marrying the ones they'd loved due to them not having that house. It's a truly vicious cycle that at least was both tangible and widespread. I left in 2016, maybe things have changed since then but I doubt they have, and even if they do change it's too little too late.
@Londubh
@Londubh 2 жыл бұрын
@@adamconner9302 The more I hear about it, the more I understand why Ang Lee felt that he could understand the social implications of _Sense and Sensibility_ better than the British actors could; from what you're saying, the same "a man's only a good catch if he has property and wealth to maintain it" and "women have an expiration date in the dating market" that held in Victorian/Edwardian Britain now hold in modern China.
@BountyFlamor
@BountyFlamor 2 жыл бұрын
Often times the grandparents raise the grandchildren in China while the parents work.
@johnmcgarvie1
@johnmcgarvie1 2 жыл бұрын
This has become a morning routine. Thank you for the insightful and consistent content.
@josephlemon2996
@josephlemon2996 2 жыл бұрын
6am coffee doesn't feel right w/o him! morning from chicago!
@jeremyalvis8767
@jeremyalvis8767 2 жыл бұрын
Same!
@hampy1238
@hampy1238 2 жыл бұрын
Hahaha same here !
@spartancrown
@spartancrown 2 жыл бұрын
I’d suggest also watching China update if you don’t already. I watch Tony and Peter both. Along with Joe Blogs youtube.com/@ChinaUpdate
@KatanamasterV
@KatanamasterV 2 жыл бұрын
Been stealing your material for around a decade now. Makes me look like a genius to some smart and wealthy people which has been remarkably helpful to my life. Wanted to say thank you for that.
@anypercentdeathless
@anypercentdeathless 2 жыл бұрын
Same.
@moritamikamikara3879
@moritamikamikara3879 2 жыл бұрын
Yeap, I'm doing that too. My parents think I'm a genius
@El-Jefe
@El-Jefe 2 жыл бұрын
@@moritamikamikara3879 hey son, it's your dad here we know you are not a genius.
@WeebDweebTCG
@WeebDweebTCG 2 жыл бұрын
@@El-Jefe lol
@TheDisgruntledImperial
@TheDisgruntledImperial 2 жыл бұрын
@@El-Jefe That's a lie! *I'm* their father, and I was completely fooled!
@deantatlow4021
@deantatlow4021 2 жыл бұрын
Since I saw you on Joe Rogan I tell everyone I meet to watch you. Your appearance on Joe Rogan was one of the best episodes I have seen.
@trevorkam
@trevorkam 2 жыл бұрын
Agreed!
@Milkmypig
@Milkmypig 2 жыл бұрын
Love for Peter to return, hopefully for longer next time!
@Farowlol
@Farowlol 2 жыл бұрын
@@bendagostino2217 #1921
@Farowlol
@Farowlol 2 жыл бұрын
@@bendagostino2217 Weird, try googling ogjre 1921
@Milkmypig
@Milkmypig 2 жыл бұрын
@@bendagostino2217 lmao check again
@NikiGalabov
@NikiGalabov 2 жыл бұрын
Please do an episode on the demographic outlook for the Orthodox world as you mentioned briefly in one of your past videos. I'm from Bulgaria and am really eager to hear your take on the demographic situation in my country.
@balkanwarz
@balkanwarz 2 жыл бұрын
Same here! Even though we both know it wont be good 😁
@Gabriel-uo5zc
@Gabriel-uo5zc 2 жыл бұрын
it's pretty shitty
@willg3717
@willg3717 2 жыл бұрын
Isn't Bulgaria the country with the highest death rate per thousand people in Europe (excluding Ukraine)?
@balkanwarz
@balkanwarz 2 жыл бұрын
@@willg3717 Just checked that And yup seems so according to WHO Higher than ukraine you are right And its normal stuff - sickness, incidents, car crashes stuff like that
@NikiGalabov
@NikiGalabov 2 жыл бұрын
@@willg3717 It's the country with the fastest population decline in the world, which is caused by low birth rate, high death rate & huge emigration. And surprisingly that is not much discussed by the political elites here lately, even though the latest census data showed the demographic implosion is happening faster than anticipated. I expect the country to disintegrate by 2050.
@johngoldsworthy1925
@johngoldsworthy1925 2 жыл бұрын
Same here. This has become a morning routine along with my coffee. Unbelievably valuable content while not cloaked in economic terms and statistics that have to be teased apart before comprehension dawns. Thanks you again Peter.
@markmasterman6253
@markmasterman6253 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks, Peter. All my grandchildren are now studying your thesis. In every drama/mega change there are winners and losers - you gave some clues on the opportunities to come. Be on the right side of history.
@hufficag
@hufficag 2 жыл бұрын
What are those opportunities?
@markmasterman6253
@markmasterman6253 2 жыл бұрын
@@hufficag The businesses, resources, countries that get plus comment from Peter. On-shoring everywhere - hit the essentials and you are on a winner.
@hufficag
@hufficag 2 жыл бұрын
@@markmasterman6253 All the manufacturing jobs have been outsourced to Asia. I couldn't find an engineering job after graduation in 2010, so in the spirit of offshoring I went to live in China. Been living here 10 years now.
@markmasterman6253
@markmasterman6253 2 жыл бұрын
@@hufficag Past tense. That might have been a good plan then but this is now. I'm not sure China is a good place to stay. You must have deployable skills; with onshoring, almost anywhere else is going to have to replicate essentials in quick order. Shortage categories will emerge quite soon, I suspect. [see 'Sold Out', Rickards]
@BranGrizz
@BranGrizz 2 жыл бұрын
Haha you should make all of them study different people. Dealing in absolutes is for fools. Odds this guy is right about everything is near zero.
@solarsailor1534
@solarsailor1534 2 жыл бұрын
Demographic data is a case in why you should never asume modern trends will continue on indefinitely. I remember growing up, every expert was worried about overpopulation and how we were all going to starve in the 21st century. Now the worlds most populated country is loosing people and everyone is getting more obese.
@aardvarklancaster1783
@aardvarklancaster1783 2 жыл бұрын
It was the Malthusian craze of the 60s - 80s. I distinctly remember population and peak oil graphs in SCIENCE textbooks reaching their apex at the year 2000 implying world wide famine and death for entering the new millennium (i.e. Fallout). Motherfuckers were by a wrong by a lightyear and not one if them have apologized or made ammends for scaring an entire generation.
@danamyrocket
@danamyrocket 2 жыл бұрын
Most of the global south is facing malnutrition. China is feeding its population by stripping the life out of the pacific. The global north is feeding itself with unsustainable methods.
@anti-emo4721
@anti-emo4721 2 жыл бұрын
What modern trends you are talking about? Every "expert" still talks about overpopulation, they just don't say which parts of the world get more populated. They intentionally skip over developed world!
@Christobanistan
@Christobanistan 2 жыл бұрын
Most western nations are "losing" people. China is a bit worst than most, but they are not immune to low replacement rates.
@kchall5
@kchall5 2 жыл бұрын
@@Christobanistan U.S. birthrates are also falling precipitously, but everyone else has about a 30 year head start.
@audioworkshop1
@audioworkshop1 2 жыл бұрын
It started with a recommended video on my youtube channel... now it's a morning ritual... thanks Peter for educating us on these vital matters as the opening monolog to one of my favorite movies stated... "The world is changing"
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
Saves me from having to watch the news etc. While he gives how shitty news, I actually feel less worried, but I have an idea of where the bad news is headed.
@whathellohey2334
@whathellohey2334 2 жыл бұрын
keep posting this stuff it’s so educational !! more people should be paying attention to this stuff
@StephenGillie
@StephenGillie 2 жыл бұрын
Listen long enough and you start to feel like Chicken Little.
@junkscience6397
@junkscience6397 2 жыл бұрын
Happy 50th Peter. Many happy returns.
@tortugatech
@tortugatech 2 жыл бұрын
Hey Peter when's the orthodox world demographic analysis coming? You mentioned it deserving a full episode in Part 4
@vladyslavkorenyak872
@vladyslavkorenyak872 2 жыл бұрын
I want it too!
@time_merchant_
@time_merchant_ 2 жыл бұрын
Me 3
@Vordigon1
@Vordigon1 2 жыл бұрын
Me 4!
@B1gF0x
@B1gF0x 2 жыл бұрын
Still waiting for that!
@Dennis_Reynolds
@Dennis_Reynolds 2 жыл бұрын
5
@polarvortex3294
@polarvortex3294 2 жыл бұрын
Never noticed it before, but I like the Zeihan logo. Tells what you're into both visually and in words. And lets us know without bragging that you're sophisticated, modern and hip to the many connections between societies. Original and very cool!
@WackadoodleMalarkey
@WackadoodleMalarkey 2 жыл бұрын
Oh wow now I want one
@thecustodian1023
@thecustodian1023 2 жыл бұрын
Does he do any comments ever on the WEF and the global social marxism movements that get endlessly shoved in our faces?
@E4439Qv5
@E4439Qv5 2 жыл бұрын
@@thecustodian1023 he has generally positive opinions of how the W.E.F. encouraged industrialization early on. Not sure where he stands on it these days.
@thecustodian1023
@thecustodian1023 2 жыл бұрын
@@E4439Qv5 Hopefully it is like the rest of us. It looked good up front but what it has shown itself to be is all built on lies and nothing that we want.
@koogle612
@koogle612 2 жыл бұрын
60 minutes only touched on this this past Sunday. This was explained well, thank you.
@murphyman814
@murphyman814 2 жыл бұрын
Damn 111k views? I guess the OGs don't have you all to ourselves anymore. You deserve all the good things!
@neek6327
@neek6327 2 жыл бұрын
Peter’s face in the thumbnail is his whole personality 😆. He’s a legend!
@ohiopigeon
@ohiopigeon 2 жыл бұрын
"Unless we figure out human cloning at scale" did everybody catch that?
@RuslanLagashkin
@RuslanLagashkin 2 жыл бұрын
Yep, that's the only realistic option (besides descending into religious fundamentalism)
@E4439Qv5
@E4439Qv5 2 жыл бұрын
@@RuslanLagashkin ¿por qué no los dos?
@kleezer1
@kleezer1 2 жыл бұрын
This is my new favorite youtube channel
@carl8825
@carl8825 2 жыл бұрын
I look forward to your daily insight every morning, and I probably have seen all your videos. Your points are always right on the mark.
@martinandreasvik6505
@martinandreasvik6505 2 жыл бұрын
I love these short updates. Keep it up Peter!
@kaede15
@kaede15 2 жыл бұрын
Product of “One Child” policy here (1982), haven’t met anyone thru primary, middle, high school to University, anyone, that has a brother or a sister. Now, if you take me and my wife as the middle generation, that means our parents generation are 4 people, my gen are 2 people and our kid will be the only child. In another words, in 3 gens you reduce 4 to 1… and they’ve been doing this shit for more than 4 decades. 14B!? yeah I Dont buy that for a second maybe 800M tops.
@lovev9904
@lovev9904 2 жыл бұрын
I'm an Independent Latino. Thank you Zeihan!! You are KING!! Rogan, Bryan Callen Podcast and Patrick Bet-Davis PBD brought me here.
@mikeconant4777
@mikeconant4777 2 жыл бұрын
The Chinese announcement is a big "I told you so" for Peter!
@brisen1989
@brisen1989 2 жыл бұрын
So how long will it take before we have technology to help with this problem? Like robotics in elderly care f.ex?
@kumarutkarsh2272
@kumarutkarsh2272 Жыл бұрын
"Shared love of genocide" is one of the best taunts ever😂😂😂
@alf8718
@alf8718 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Peter. My second comment. This time after watching Your whole series on demographics. Very interesting, thank You. But forgive me for what I have to say next: I'm dissapointed when somebody as bright as You when talking about demographics doesn't want to talk about the future vs. population growth on the global level. We are now globally population of 8 billion people and most of the problems regarding environment, resources like energy or metals, mass extinction of species etc. are a direct consequence of this growth. In Sumatra, Indonesia, for example, they've very recently burned rainforests (maybe they still do) to obtain more farming land - they could at least cut the forests instead and use the wood (or sell it). The demographic projections for the next decades according to the Unated Nations Organization is more growth on the global level with the " demographic shifts" to some poor countries (and by having a lot of children they will remail poor or become even poorer and uneducated). Just 50 Years ago the population of Nigeria was about 50 million, today is a bit over 200 million and by 2050 it is expected to be 410 million (according to a conservative projection). India after the second world war had about 400 million, very recently it has become the most populated country in the world overtaking China with close to 1.4 billion, not to even mention countries like Bangladesh where in last 50 years for every person at their independence now there are 5 people (500% growth in 50 years). And for the world the history shows that the population was continuously growing for as long as we have data (with some small fluctuations due to pandemics...) At the beginning of the 19th century the world population was about 1 billion. It took many millenia to get to this numbers. At the beginning of the 20th it doubled (in just 100 years) to 2 billion. In the last 130 years we doubled again - twice! So let me use Your scientific approach on the "pyramid", "chimney" the transition and "reverse pyramid" declining nations - in order to maintain the ideal pyramid - it is only possible if the population is growing (even with the shorter life expectancy). And globally we are past the point of sustainable life without the irreversible effects on our evnvironment. And for the end a small parallel to making alcohol drinks - at the beginning there is a sweet liquid (or starch or any kind of carbohydrates in principle) , then the yeast is introduced to it (either by natural means from the air or in vine production a particular strain of yeast is inserted ). The yeast is feeding on sugar and the product of their metabolism is alcohol (not to go into details too much here - there are different alcohols, mostly methyl, which we humans appreciate the most). The yeast is growing in numbers until it reaches the point when the concentration of alcohol is too high that it becomes too toxic for yeast and it perishes (in their own shit, forgive me the expression). I hope the human race is cleverer than that.
@lepidoptera9337
@lepidoptera9337 2 жыл бұрын
Replacing reasonably well educated Chinese people with very poorly educated Nigerian people who have one sixth the GDP per person is not exactly an offset. You need to start thinking before you write bullshit like that. There will never be much more than ten billion people on the planet and we can manage that number just fine.
@PeoplePressHarder
@PeoplePressHarder 2 жыл бұрын
YAYAAAAH!😁👍💯💥🔥 I’ve been watching your videos all over KZbin for some time but I just discovered your channel and I’m excited to watch all these videos 😁 I do think your missing some things in your argument though when it comes to your conclusion about so many countries being doomed based on the demographics and I’ll try and explain why I say that without getting to long winded lol 1.) supply and demand - if young peeps are needed then young peoples value goes up because they are in demand so I don’t think that borders on a map will be able to keep the demographics of a particular country at suicidal levels as you predict them to be. Obviously a country that doesn’t have young people will have to court young people from other countries to move there and I have no doubt that countries with inverted pyramids will do just that. Life always finds a way and a country like Germany is not going to fail as you predict … it’s just not going to happen because they have lots of friends A country like china is not going to fail either because even with a population of 750,000 people as you predict they will be that’s still twice the population as the U.S. and china would be in a way better position to come out of that being self sufficient which was there goal with the one child policy. China thinks long term and isn’t going to burden itself with western ideals or morals when it comes to taking care of their elderly at the expense of their survival Your work is fascinating but you just haven’t accounted for human nature or the will to survive or the fact that china managed to grow to 1.5 billion people without oil or globalization or importing food so they will survive
@wangaurora3620
@wangaurora3620 Жыл бұрын
dido on the last argument, even back to 200 years ago when China is 100% farming society they grow to 0.6 billion self sufficient.
@ardalanaudine1199
@ardalanaudine1199 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for all the great insite and happy birthday 🎂
@mdonoghue4980
@mdonoghue4980 2 жыл бұрын
Discovered you on Joe Rogan! Your knowledge is fascinating and I listened to it several times bc there is so much to unpack!
@chapter4travels
@chapter4travels 2 жыл бұрын
Don't believe everything he says. He is an expert in the demographic field but not energy, especially nuclear energy, so take that with a grain of salt.
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
@@chapter4travels He's said many times he's a generalist, he does talks all the time and gains a massive amount of information from talking to people. If his sources are wrong he is wrong, but on average he's more right than wrong. Also keeping in mind, he doesn't always explain things, i.e. nuclear might work in engineering terms, but if you can't finance it, it won't be viable so it doesn't matter, it's a bad technology. Remember too 90% of research fails, you can't predict which 10% will be successful so you're best bet is assuming most technologies fail until they do.
@Ragis
@Ragis 2 жыл бұрын
@@dixonhill1108 This... you don't need to be an expert to find external hard constraints on things.
@14lenox
@14lenox 2 жыл бұрын
Same
@stephenmacdonald4005
@stephenmacdonald4005 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for your clarity, and generosity, Mr. Zeihan.
@waltershearls
@waltershearls 2 жыл бұрын
Peter has been killing it for a long time with geopolitics analysis. I think a lot of people monitoring China demographic situation is trying to figure out how much they don't know about the CCP numbers. The scary thing is we know they manipulate numbers to match their interests.
@CP-012
@CP-012 2 жыл бұрын
Good seeing you yesterday in Brandon Manitoba. Fantastic insights.
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
So happy to hear he's in Canada. You Manitobans appear to be very lucky. I wish us newfies had the same luck.
@CP-012
@CP-012 2 жыл бұрын
@@dixonhill1108 yes, he was in Brandon for Ag days. You just have to throw a party, he’ll come.
@garysheppard4028
@garysheppard4028 2 жыл бұрын
On the other hand, population can't just keep growing forever - which is what the current economic model needs. Maybe less people will be good, once a new economic model evolves to embrace it. Look at life after the Black Death. It led to improvements down the track because of the population decline.
@esdeath89
@esdeath89 14 күн бұрын
I can say even more that consumption can't grow forever. Let's say you don't buy house each year and other things too. I bought my phone 6 years ago and it still functioning very well, and samething I can say about my laptop, TV and dishwasher. So, even if demographics were relatievly good it will not solve problem of current social-economical-political systems. We will need to figure out to live with problem that we will face in the future.
@yaritzarodriguez9244
@yaritzarodriguez9244 2 жыл бұрын
After watching you on JRE I am now watching your content constantly
@stevecooper7883
@stevecooper7883 2 жыл бұрын
I saw his first video only 3 months ago and I've been binging his analysis since. I even bought his most recent book lol
@pohkeee
@pohkeee 2 жыл бұрын
You didn’t mention the additional problem of male to female ratios, that make the birthrate exponentially less liking to down anything other than plummet.
@loot6
@loot6 2 жыл бұрын
True but he has mentioned it before about China. Definitely a huge factor that is also unique to China.
@JoseAlanGuerrero92
@JoseAlanGuerrero92 2 жыл бұрын
No, India has the same problem despite not having a one child policy
@loot6
@loot6 2 жыл бұрын
@@JoseAlanGuerrero92 The one child policy isn't the only thing that affected the male female ratio, Chinese have always had a preference for males. India has the same problem but nowhere near as severe. India also have great demographics other than that so they are actually better off than even most western countries in that respect.
@zeusmultirotor8479
@zeusmultirotor8479 2 жыл бұрын
I half expected him to say “go away now” at the end
@cryptocrazy726
@cryptocrazy726 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter - do you feel that demography may impact consumption more than production? The assumption being that automation, robotics etc may reduce the labour force requirements but you can’t sustain or automate consumption of a slowing population.
@person1858
@person1858 2 жыл бұрын
He does think that. He has mentioned that in one of his videos, I forget which.
@EchoBravo370
@EchoBravo370 2 жыл бұрын
Robots don't spend money
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
Consumption will be impacted in many ways, but you need to also consider that as this happens entire new categories of growth as products/ services related to aging will see significantly higher demand. So, without being overly hyperbolic, one needs to spend time understanding the context/ nuance of the implications of the demographic shift. Starting with what is the actual challenge, what is the timeline, and what REAL adjustments will occur.
@thomasherrin6798
@thomasherrin6798 2 жыл бұрын
Africa is forecast to have a population explosion as is India and Pakistan, as they are the countries least capable of sustaining a massive increase in population, without conflict, it seems that there is trouble ahead!?!
@maciejzwolinski2381
@maciejzwolinski2381 2 жыл бұрын
You keep saying "We don't even have an economic theory of how an economy might function under these circumstances". I think it'd be foolish to make any predictions for the (usually) chaotic transition period, BUT once the 'new norm' settles in, wouldn't result of a demographic collapse on this scale be comparable to Black Death induced changes in middle-ages? Or an aftermath of a 30-year-war (similar timescale and scale of population decline)? Or the Great Northern Wars and how they decimated population base of PLC and male population of Swedish empire? Especially the latter two as they introduced a demographic imbalance, though not to the same degree as aging population (more and precise sources needed, I'm not an expert in the area)? Just food for thought. I think we had massive population collapses in the past, so it might be worth exploring their consequences. Sure, those weren't exactly modern, interconnected economies, but I think some lessons can be drawn from them.
@Vzzdak
@Vzzdak 2 жыл бұрын
Back when the Industrial Revolution began, we had one billion people. Now, we have eight, largely organized around a global consumption model. (Even the second-world economies couldn't get away from this.)
@maciejzwolinski2381
@maciejzwolinski2381 2 жыл бұрын
@@Vzzdak Yeah, that's stating the obvious. I'm not disputing that things have changed since these events, but to be honest people well be as productive as they are, there will just be less of them. We might get rid off some useless positions in society... like middle-management. I'm liking the population collapse more and more to be honest.
@bighands69
@bighands69 2 жыл бұрын
@@maciejzwolinski2381 The reason we do not have an economic model comparable is that we have not seen a country since the era of the Roman Empire that imported the majority of its raw materials and then export the majority of its productivity. We do not have a modern world example that would allow us to compute such a situation. During the era of the black death or even industrial revolution there is no comparable system to that of China. Take Japan for example it is an export driven country and imports most of its raw materials and has a falling population but has built out its industrial base over the last 40 years to be heavily automated and now requires less of a workforce than it did 25 years ago. It literally cannot be compared to China even though they have the same problem.
@jayclark8284
@jayclark8284 2 жыл бұрын
In all your examples, these societies had much larger birth rates (even mortality adjusted) which allowed them to rebound. China (and most wealthy nations) does not have this luxury. A society geared on 1.4b people that falls below critical mass is doomed to oblivion...same for Russia.
@makhonjo
@makhonjo 2 жыл бұрын
I would have thought that as a result of the "one child policy" there are 100mn Chinese who were born during that period, but not properly registered and have thus not been counted on the official stats.
@thomasherrin6798
@thomasherrin6798 2 жыл бұрын
Plus or minus one million, who's counting, definitely not the C.C.P., they will have a demographic problem, it has already started to decline, it will end up with the vulnerable dying sooner (As always) and the population reducing to the new normal which maybe around 750 million, which is still quite a few, but maybe not enough to pay for the C.C.P.'s ambitious plans!?!
@powershift2025
@powershift2025 2 жыл бұрын
Sounds like their GDP #s and every other piece of information from their state mouthpieces. It's called mathematics with "Chinese Characteristics."
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
You can't hide a 2nd child, with a 1 child policy, in a communist nation. Your neighbors will always rat you out to the government. It's a normative thing in communist states. Neighbors want your flat they rate you out.
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
@@powershift2025 there's never been a civilization so effective at lying.
@Mattsta2010
@Mattsta2010 2 жыл бұрын
yes...there are "secret people" in China. I taught there and one of my students had a brother and a sister. They were very rich and he said his mum just hid when she was pregnant. But I feel their money and location insulated them, if they were poor in a rural area with an over zealous local party organisation, the picture would be different. Look at the documentary "One Child Nation"...Harrowing and incredibly unfair.
@guywilloughby5443
@guywilloughby5443 2 жыл бұрын
Hey Pete, when it comes to neoliberalism, if a person goes into congress worth 3 mil and leaves congress 8 years later worth 40 mil, does that mean that neoliberalism is legalized corruption? What are your thoughts on this?
@mangoinvests
@mangoinvests 2 жыл бұрын
Peter has been forecasting this for over a decade. read his 4 books.
@Seanmckenney1
@Seanmckenney1 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Peter, What does the difference between rural and urban birthrates say about the stability of Chinese society over the next couple of decades? I would assume rural and urban wages will continue to diverge at a faster and faster pace. Thanks
@alf.2929
@alf.2929 2 жыл бұрын
I don't think you were paying attention. China doesn't have a couple of decades. They have till 2030 when the shit hits the fan and their society collapses.
@dixonhill1108
@dixonhill1108 2 жыл бұрын
You need to appreciate the Chinese communist party. It was based around poor villagers genociding the urban population. Wiping out urban culture etc. The "Cultural Revolution" was basically just destruction of cities. Picture a bunch of men and women from Alabama wiping out LA with literal pitchforks, in the name of socialism.
@Seanmckenney1
@Seanmckenney1 2 жыл бұрын
@@dixonhill1108 That's actually why i was asking the question. Wouldn't this set the stage for a similar sort of circumstances as those that occurred during the cultural revolution. Large relatively poor rural population and small relatively wealthier urban population at odds with each other over resources and leadership.
@RTD1947
@RTD1947 2 жыл бұрын
You Rock!! Thanks for the update!!!
@L0stEngineer
@L0stEngineer 2 жыл бұрын
It must take Zeihan heaps of self control not to gloat over things he forecasted a decade ago.
@Rjsjrjsjrjsj
@Rjsjrjsjrjsj 2 жыл бұрын
Watch more of his stuff. He gloats. 🙂
@steven4315
@steven4315 2 жыл бұрын
He predicted the Russo-Ukrainian war would last three days, but then again so did Putin.
@MrToubrouk
@MrToubrouk 2 жыл бұрын
He was a huge doomer on that one. No-one expected the Ukrainians to suckerpunch the Russian Bear so hard.
@danamyrocket
@danamyrocket 2 жыл бұрын
Nobody realized the Russians had sold all the spare parts for their army for booze and hookers. Tricky, those Russians.
@jwiegraffe6290
@jwiegraffe6290 2 жыл бұрын
@@steven4315 I don't think anyone fully appreciated how much of the Russian military budget was captured by graft.
@kathleenmcdonell1803
@kathleenmcdonell1803 2 жыл бұрын
wow just wow - great round up of what is going on! thank you for this view that is articulated so well -thank you
@mclaughlin2008
@mclaughlin2008 2 жыл бұрын
I don't think I've ever heard the phrase "shared love of genocide" before. +1
@andrewdavis6917
@andrewdavis6917 2 жыл бұрын
Love the work Sir
@jayclark8284
@jayclark8284 2 жыл бұрын
From Middle Kingdom to "Meh" Kingdom in 40 years 😂😂
@feliz2892
@feliz2892 2 жыл бұрын
It's not funny
@SithStudy
@SithStudy 3 ай бұрын
@@feliz2892why not?
@Showmetheevidence-
@Showmetheevidence- 2 жыл бұрын
What. No snow? 😂 Thanks for your updates PZ.
@GotGracexxxxx
@GotGracexxxxx 2 жыл бұрын
I love Peter’s admission that there IS a solution-all they have to do is develop cloning at scale! 😂😂
@user-uf2df6zf5w
@user-uf2df6zf5w 2 жыл бұрын
Cloning, Gene Editing, Baby Factories... Lots of new ideas.
@RuslanLagashkin
@RuslanLagashkin 2 жыл бұрын
Technically, its not cloning. Just growing children outside of woman's body (which has not been figured out as of yet). And then we would end up with a newborn baby, which needs to be taken care of until adulthood, which right now costs on average 400k euros for a German couple. Extrapolating to the number of children needed for replacement, it yields around 6% GDP expenses for a developed country. Which is kind of a lot of money, so actually growing babies in vats would be the easy part.
@seto_kaiba_
@seto_kaiba_ 2 жыл бұрын
Automation and/or immigration could help too. So could NOT GENOCIDING UYGURS. So could restricting abortion and contraception as well as more tax breaks and/or work leave for people with kids. Or go full Taliban and ban women from education. Or maybe invade a couple of young countries to absorb their populations. Knowing China, they will probably take the least ethical approaches that I listed.
@GotGracexxxxx
@GotGracexxxxx 2 жыл бұрын
@@RuslanLagashkin Don’t clone a baby-clone an adult! 😂😂
@RuslanLagashkin
@RuslanLagashkin 2 жыл бұрын
@@GotGracexxxxx Mb in 200 years we'll develop the tech for memory transfer. Before that just babies :(
@malikshabazz2065
@malikshabazz2065 2 жыл бұрын
great stuff!
@magnusjrgensen1575
@magnusjrgensen1575 2 жыл бұрын
Any chance you could give us your take on the future of the nordic countries? Specefically from a demographic perspective
@thecrazyandthewild
@thecrazyandthewild 2 жыл бұрын
already done. Check out the other "demographic series" vids
@loot6
@loot6 2 жыл бұрын
Europe was already done but strangely missed out the UK. Not sure if he'll ever cover the UK.
@magnusjrgensen1575
@magnusjrgensen1575 2 жыл бұрын
@@thecrazyandthewild Ahh thanks :)
@yanmamabear5734
@yanmamabear5734 2 жыл бұрын
With limited resources from the land, if there is less population to divide up the resources, wouldn’t that mean the current citizens will actually have an improvement in standard of living? I understand there will be less labor force, but they will also have less consumption demand.
@mtnbiker4480
@mtnbiker4480 2 жыл бұрын
That there will be "less consumption demand" may not capture the reality here. Demand for medical services, certain age-related products and services, energy (the elderly don't handle cold well), will all increase. Will young people trade their present for someone else's future security? How would that intergenerational conflict play out if the answer is no?
@kody447
@kody447 2 жыл бұрын
I get the whole Doom and Gloom theme of Geopolitics (which has been like this since the dawn of time), but where is all the positive news. I'd love to hear recommendations and solutions to these problems. This would help both educate us and inform us of realistic approaches.
@Ben-ry1py
@Ben-ry1py 2 жыл бұрын
China has an old power loving freak running it. One good piece of advice for China to lessen the sting would be "stop being communist ass hats to the world and your own people" That feels quite good doesn't it?
@loot6
@loot6 2 жыл бұрын
He does have some solutions, if there are really any, but it will be up to the world to decide what to do, the problems are already demographically set in place.
@thesoulspark73
@thesoulspark73 2 жыл бұрын
I love that he just presents the facts. I've heard enough of the divisive "solutions" from CNN and FN, and really appreciate just getting some straight information without some politically bent solution direction.
@chuckcurtis
@chuckcurtis 2 жыл бұрын
His predictions for America are positive. Also France, Scandinavia, Argentina and Turkey. Overall you are right in that there’s more bad news than good.
@alf.2929
@alf.2929 2 жыл бұрын
Well, doom and gloom for the rest of the world but the US makes out pretty well with a slight increase in inflation temporarily if they play their cards right. So F you rest of the world.
@genomedia44
@genomedia44 2 жыл бұрын
Love this series btw
@thefisherking78
@thefisherking78 2 жыл бұрын
Just finished Disunited Nations and have the next book queued for soon. Thanks for the insights! P.S. please reconsider some of your sources on EVs 🧐😜
@alansnyder4104
@alansnyder4104 2 жыл бұрын
You will love the next book. I think it is the best one. Also, If you care about the environment, getting a hybrid like a Prius might be a better choice than an EV like a Tesla.
@candlelarbra5212
@candlelarbra5212 Жыл бұрын
Man if you did properly produced video essays this channel would be unstoppable
@peterpayne2219
@peterpayne2219 2 жыл бұрын
This is truly the Decade of Peter Zeihan. Thanks for all your insights, Peter! Love your clarity! (My name is Peter too by the way.)
@thecustodian1023
@thecustodian1023 2 жыл бұрын
Does he do any comments ever on the WEF and the global social marxism movements that get endlessly shoved in our faces?
@playpianotoday6223
@playpianotoday6223 2 жыл бұрын
This is worrying but also, bizarrely, slightly exciting!
@ModerateObserver
@ModerateObserver 2 жыл бұрын
Welcome to the Zeihan 'vibe', we've been expecting you 😁
@TheVietnameseDevil
@TheVietnameseDevil 2 жыл бұрын
great video, demography is also very important in fields like public health
@Mattsta2010
@Mattsta2010 2 жыл бұрын
Not just there...economics, sociology. I am happy that Peter is becoming more popular, as a Geography teacher I always said the "Why of history is always Geography!...Physical and Human Geography dictates everything we do, we just don't always realise it!"
@jimlambrick4642
@jimlambrick4642 2 жыл бұрын
Demographics is everything. At 76 years, I grew up in an era where it was hard to find a job and if you had one you held on it. Now I see worker shortages 'for hire' signs and TV ads to hire workers everywhere. That is real demographics playing out in our day to day lives. Already starting to have dramatic effects in every field, health care just getting the most media attention. In a few years things like trying to get your roof replaced are going to reach crisis levels.
@mikecarner
@mikecarner 2 жыл бұрын
4:00 Peter, did you suggest human cloning at 4:01?
@KitagumaIgen
@KitagumaIgen 2 жыл бұрын
When I learnt about the Japanese demographics some 20 years ago, I though it would be very interesting to learn how an economy works in/on/for a shrinking population - in particular since this would/will happen to much of Europe. But this future for China seems a bit to drastic to be described as "interesting".
@stevecooper7883
@stevecooper7883 2 жыл бұрын
Their whole economic model was based on a mass surplus of labor, which is quickly going to go away. Japan always was shifting to automation, outsourcing and highly skilled workforce management.
@jimlambrick4642
@jimlambrick4642 2 жыл бұрын
Japan has been the 'canary' in this scenario for some decades now. The challenge for them, and all other shrinking countries is to develop a economic system around that reality. Probably a modified capitalist model with strong incentives to de-urbanize with the idea that cheaper to live small towns might encourage replacement level birthrates.
@OhDeerOregonTrail
@OhDeerOregonTrail 2 жыл бұрын
The faces you make at the end are priceless
@honeyspiderii
@honeyspiderii 2 жыл бұрын
You keep using this phrase, "we don't have an economic theory for how an economy might function [blah blah demographic decline]". As an economist, I find this claim perplexing. Modern neoclassical economic theory applies perfectly well in a country with an inverted population pyramid. Demand for goods and services consumed by old people increases, supply of goods and services produced by young people decreases, the relative price of those commodities increases until equilibrium is restored. Where is the mystery? People used to work until they died, Peter, and there is nothing to stop them from doing so again (either by working longer, dying sooner or both). This whole "retirement" thing is a very recent aberration. Economically, having a bunch of non-productive old people in a society is no different from having a bunch of non-productive children in a society. I think what you may mean is that we don't have a _political_ theory for how an inverted population pyramid affects public policy, as old people have historically punched above their population weight in terms of political influence while children have almost none. I can certainly foresee a rather major generational conflict on the horizon, but the uncharted territory is political, not economic.
@dzcav3
@dzcav3 2 жыл бұрын
The problem arises partially because the old people are poor and can't afford the higher prices, and partially because many of the older people are unfit for work. That still leaves the political problem of the CCP's promise to provide economic prosperity in exchange for political loyalty.
@aurorajones8481
@aurorajones8481 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter!
@peakbagger3180
@peakbagger3180 2 жыл бұрын
Two questions: 1) What does this Chinese breakdown look like? Is it just internal or does it have global repercussions even if China doesn't lash out? 2) If this is the worst demographic collapse in history, how did Japan and Germany avoid that distinction in post WWII with the loss of an entire generation?
@peakbagger3180
@peakbagger3180 2 жыл бұрын
If true, this will be the shortest dynastic cycle in China's 3000 year history.
@dzcav3
@dzcav3 2 жыл бұрын
Japan and Germany maintained high birth rates after WW2. They obviously suffered greatly economically for a long time after the war, but gradually rebuilt because the basic family culture remained intact. Also, the US helped them economically.
@ofb1583
@ofb1583 2 жыл бұрын
During this demographic time bomb, who would have predicted an organisation like the CCP would have an 'inadvertent' release of a wicked virus designed almost perfectly to attack, attrit dispose of those with comorbidities(the elderly). The salient challenge to this system must be wrapped up in not just their addiction to global exports but the 25% of GDP(30%of domestic production) totally dependent on the preleveraged housing market. doesn't the ghost city building not to mention the enormous quantities of property about to be vacated by dying pensioners bottom out this market with colossal over supply?
@bighands69
@bighands69 2 жыл бұрын
Killing of the elderly will not help with the fact China does not have enough young people to maintain their current or previous industrial outputs. China relies upon its export market but that is already starting to shrink and as more workers become less productive because they get too old to do the physical labour that will create economic instability. A 65 year ol concrete worker is not going to be as productive as a 21 year old and that will be replicated throughout the Chinese system in every industry.
@ofb1583
@ofb1583 2 жыл бұрын
@@bighands69 I agree with all that you said but am still fearful that the negative equity black hole that is about to descend on the Chinese Market carries a level of unserviceable debt that will leave stagflation for as much as a decade. So sad.
@Aussie-Mocha
@Aussie-Mocha 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter 😂 Something triggered my humour when thinking about: MADE IN CHINA and USED BY DATE 🤣🤣
@M.Redsky
@M.Redsky 2 жыл бұрын
Happy B-Day, Chief.
@mccroskey151
@mccroskey151 2 жыл бұрын
I’m fairly new to thinking about demographics and their implications, but the criticism for Peter’s having been projecting China’s for a decade is an issue of timing (it hasn’t happened yet) rather than an issue of demographic/geopolitical realities actually playing out (which do appear to be following a similar path to what he has laid out in his books and talks). Timing matters, but less so than the realities bearing out as described. As he’s said, he’s not a prophet, and he’s be a wealthy man via Wall Street if he could predict the timing on all of this.
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
Peter isn't a prophet, and with every video, I've come to see that while he has the right instincts for the challenge, his data sources are poor and his analysis is hyperbolic to drive traffic. Which, as someone who works on these challenges, is disappointing as he has instincts and the challenges could benefit from a better view.
@robertmichon5448
@robertmichon5448 2 жыл бұрын
@Richard Brubaker: Hasn't he done plenty just by raising these issues for those who've never considered them?
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
@@robertmichon5448 Sure, that is why I am giving him credit on his instincts, but pointing out that his data/ analysis have problems. Assuming I am speaking with/ to someone who is interested, they will then look for more/ better information to better understand the implications for themselves.
@jacobside2656
@jacobside2656 2 жыл бұрын
Great news for the rest of us
@TraderJoe888
@TraderJoe888 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter for your insightful, very well reasoned and entertaining comments and opinions.
@andrewbosela764
@andrewbosela764 2 жыл бұрын
We sit at the top of the roller coaster, the bottom unseen ahead, we know there is another side to this thing but we are about to get gut wrenched before we get there. Strap in ladies and gentlemen, this is going to be one wild ride un-paralleled in recorded human history.
@adonixp
@adonixp 2 жыл бұрын
“Because there is a shared love of genocide there” 😂
@s.geo.7639
@s.geo.7639 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks. Interesting
@robstewart8531
@robstewart8531 2 жыл бұрын
Love your stuff but surely there are intermediate outcomes short of "total collapse"? It would be nice to hear other scenarios rather than these worse case extremes.
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
Look at Japan, Korea, Singapore, and other areas that have already gone through this and NOT collapsed. There are lessons there for the impacts of the demographic shift, policy response, and likely outcomes.
@karenwang313
@karenwang313 2 жыл бұрын
@@RichardBrubaker Japan and Korea are wealthy countries with advanced economies that have the ability to invest in automation and such. China isn't particularly wealthy. At least, the average Chinese isnt.
@MarcosElMalo2
@MarcosElMalo2 2 жыл бұрын
Of course there are, but note that Pete himself says he doesn’t know what Chinese collapse will look like, because the scale is unprecedented. When Pete makes these predictions, he’s looking at what the data is telling him about trends. When he gets into hard-to-predict territory and the unknown, he favors the worse case scenario as his best guess. He is pretty bold with his predictions in general, but when there is uncertainty he says so. When there is more certainty on something, he gets specific-like his prediction that the collapse will begin by 2030 or earlier is specific. (And part of my enjoyment of Pete’s presentations is that he is willing to go out on a limb.) Anyway, Pete’s strength and expertise, is demographic/economic analysis (let’s call it population, industrial and energy, and food inputs to an economy). He’s less strong in other aspects of geopolitics (imho) but is conversant in those aspects. Watch this video again (it’s worth it and not too long) and watch carefully for his specific claims and for his uncertainty. Pete often sounds over confident (and it’s true that he sometimes gets out of his specific lane), but he’s pretty clear about where he is certain and where he is uncertain. And let me throw something out there. What if contraction of the global economy and the economic collapse of major countries IS the optimistic best case scenario?😮
@jgw9990
@jgw9990 2 жыл бұрын
@Richard Brubaker Japan invested heavily in automation, because their leadership knew it was coming and needed to be solved. China is trapped in a mental box because in order to acknowledge the problem they have to confirm that 3 decades of Party policy (1 child) were a disaster which they will NEVER do. Their economy is also export driven and lacking in innovation.
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
@@jgw9990 China's economy has not been export driven since 2010-12. Reliant yes, but driven no... As for China's "trapped in mental box", that just doesn't play out through the policies and investments being made at different levels. There is a full recognition of the problem, and has been for 20 years, and significant public/ private investment is going into addressing it from different angles. That is not to say there won't be pain/ failures, but outright collapse is the long tail. So, again, Peter has the right instincts in calling out this as a major challenge, but saying this is a sign of (or will lead to) China's collapse isn't a/ the likely outcome.
@noacktexas
@noacktexas 2 жыл бұрын
Love your videos Peter!
@pcm1997
@pcm1997 2 жыл бұрын
Yes another video, thank you Peter. PLS more video's!!! HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON!!!!
@Jrobidy2
@Jrobidy2 2 жыл бұрын
Kinda wild they make all of air conditioners minus the Goodman/Daikin brand in Mexico
@observerstation
@observerstation 2 жыл бұрын
Their government deserves all the bad karma coming their way
@robertmichon5448
@robertmichon5448 2 жыл бұрын
It's usually the citizens that pay such karmic debts
@observerstation
@observerstation 2 жыл бұрын
@Robert Michon that is sadly true, but the only people who can get rid of their government are the Chinese citizens. The CCP's decisions are directly responsible for this situation. Up to the people to kick them out.
@cata7904
@cata7904 2 жыл бұрын
Also we are waiting for the future of "orthodox" countries video: Romania Bulgaria etc. Thanks epic video btw
@loot6
@loot6 2 жыл бұрын
Europe was already done previously, go and check it out.
@davidpitchford6510
@davidpitchford6510 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for this; these declining numbers and presumed worse actual statistics were long presaged by your books and advisories. The question that comes to my mind is: will the CCP ratchet up the militant nationalism and invade Taiwan out of frustration or distraction from its declining population and other problems? This is the most thumbed page in government playbooks to my view of history.
@thomasherrin6798
@thomasherrin6798 2 жыл бұрын
A War with Tawain would increase by tenfold all its systemic problems, and hasten it's collapse, even if it defeated Tawain all its problems would remain and it would have loads of new ones, it doesn't mean to say they wouldn't do it, Autocrats make stupid decisions, but a more sustainable approach would be to drop it's Nationalistic approach and be more friendly to its neighbours, this might be problematic as the existing leader might have to go, and he just got re-elected for life!?!
@theonlyconstantischange123
@theonlyconstantischange123 2 жыл бұрын
@@thomasherrin6798 probably why they recently demoted their head of wolf warrior relations. They know they can't survive that game and would rather play nice and do shady shit in the background like the gold ol days.
@davidpitchford6510
@davidpitchford6510 2 жыл бұрын
@@thomasherrin6798 Agreed it would likely be catastrophic like so many previous ones under similar circumstances, unfortunately.
@JohnWalles
@JohnWalles 2 жыл бұрын
Saw you on Joe Rogan. Just going through your Demographics series #1 to #5 today. As you are doing this, we have the WEF in Davos call for people to have even less kids in the Developed World as well as moving forward with policies that are extremely problematic to the economic development you are talking about. As I am assuming that you don't want to get sideways with the Davos crowd, can you do a little work on the impact of this less than optimal BS coming out of the WEF and what should be some of the steps that they should do to have success in the future. As of right now the WEF looks like a death cult as all of the countries that are in that inverted pyramid you talk about look like they will make it MUCH worse following Schwab's and the other elites policies? Keep up the good work. Is there anywhere that you list your math and supporting demographic data? Always important to check on the checkers. Thanks again.
@hi-q2261
@hi-q2261 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you Mr Doomsayer, I do encourage you to start writing children's books. Hang on there won't be any children never mind
@danswon
@danswon 2 жыл бұрын
Just curious - if that is the 2nd lowest birth rate in history then who had the 1st lowest?
@strategicviewpoint6672
@strategicviewpoint6672 2 жыл бұрын
I think India is going to be the new Demographic Big Kid on the block
@grammar_shark
@grammar_shark 2 жыл бұрын
It is.
@jayclark8284
@jayclark8284 2 жыл бұрын
Wow genius...
@russellpengilley5924
@russellpengilley5924 2 жыл бұрын
Forecast to peak at 1.7bn around 2060, then gentle decline. If you look at the population pyramid you can already see that they have a bulge coming through for teenagers and early 20's. Birth rate per woman has dropped from ~6 in 1960 to ~4 in 1990 to ~2 in 2020. So a lot will depend on the birth rate over the next ten years as that bulge goes through child bearing age. But they will be the most populous country for most of the 21st century and maybe long into the future.
@HelloWorld-jt9yp
@HelloWorld-jt9yp 2 жыл бұрын
That's a bold prediction, Captain Obvious
@jeremyalvis8767
@jeremyalvis8767 2 жыл бұрын
Can you release an updated demographic tree for China?
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
Before investing into this analysis, there are a couple of things to consider: 1) Birth rates have been falling, but the shock drop has more to do COVID policy, and the uncertainties created, than the wider trend that is driven by costs of urban lifestyle and the elevation of opportunities available to women. 2) Even assuming that he is right, he fails to address the fact that this "crash" is coming at a time when robotics / automation of factories and service jobs is already in a place to offset / absorb a big piece of this trend 3) This is NOTHING NEW, and NO ONE has crashed before. Not Japan. Not Korea. Not Singapore. They all find a path forward. Interesting, the biggest thing he failed to address was the pressure this shift would have on its healthcare system, and socially on women who are expected to support the elderly in their families. This will be a MASSIVE challenge in both aspects as China's grey "tsunami" comes to shore, BUT if you look at the amount investment (start-up to state-owned) it's very clear to those of us ON THE GROUND that the market is in action. So, yeah, China is a big place with a lot of challenges, but taking a single data point and creating a rule is something is the wrong way to go about this.
@bighands69
@bighands69 2 жыл бұрын
Who are you trying to kid with all of that. Robotics as in industrial automation can make products it cannot buy them and consume them. China simply has not automated its industry.
@RichardBrubaker
@RichardBrubaker 2 жыл бұрын
@@bighands69 You are confusing two issues. Yes, robots cannot buy stuff. DUH. That wasn't my point. My point was that robotics/ automation will offset the labor challenge that he was speaking about. Consumption is a totally different issue, and will certainly be impacted, but important to consider that while one market is hurt through this shift another (healthcare) will benefit. It's not binary. A LOT of nuance is needed, and for that to be understood you need REAL data to start with, and you aren't going to find that it you are looking for the business case for collapse.
@dzcav3
@dzcav3 2 жыл бұрын
Peter's point is not just population decline, but the SPEED of it. Also, Japan, Korea, and Singapore all got rich BEFORE they got old, not China. Automation will not save China. If someone wants an automated factory, they're going to want it near the customer, in a politically stable country, not a genocidal tyranny hell-bent on war with Taiwan. If you minimize the labor cost with automation, it makes sense to shorten and simplify the supply chain, and China loses its cost advantage. One last point. The other countries mentioned have governments somewhat representative of the people, not megalomaniac tyrants surrounded only by sycophants.
@corwinstephen
@corwinstephen 2 жыл бұрын
After reading your book and checking out a few of these updates, the question I keep coming back to is: If the collapse of the Order (big O) is the reason we can expect disruption of global trade, and if for all intents and purposes that order has already collapsed (US fleet at 1/10 its peak size), then why hasn't global trade already collapsed?
@corwinstephen
@corwinstephen 2 жыл бұрын
@@WhyteHorse2023 He talks about it a bunch in his book, it's the post WWII American-led effort to patrol the oceans and secure free trade.
@doctorsloth213
@doctorsloth213 2 жыл бұрын
I love Chinese doom news ~ makes me happy ~
@Ben-ry1py
@Ben-ry1py 2 жыл бұрын
I admit to experiencing the same. It's too bad that their government are such ass hats though. The people born their don't have a choice, and they have terrible leadership heading into disastrous times. I wish they were friends in need rather than an enemy in distress.
@nickson1431
@nickson1431 2 жыл бұрын
Considering their potential for manipulating data, why would they release this data at all?
@Kenneth_James
@Kenneth_James 2 жыл бұрын
He needs to write a few new and interesting sentences on China because it feels like I'm hearing this stuff on repeat
@CMB21497
@CMB21497 2 жыл бұрын
He just responds to the facts and trends as they happen. If you really want to learn more, check out his books. Very interesting read.
@johnhughes1276
@johnhughes1276 2 жыл бұрын
Peter Zeihan flagged the importance of this first for me, but I have been thinking it over some months now. Could it be argued that the Chinese population can be divided into two: city-focussed population responsible for most of the GDP; and subsistence only population living in the regions, including remote regions subsidised by the State? If the economically productive part of the country can draw on the unproductive part to maintain a workforce, could the economy continue fairly healthily? Historically, up until 1850-1900 London was like this. People flocked there, and were needed because life expectancy was bad. I have no stats to back up this idea about China and am hoping to hear from more knowledgable people.
@WHACK_space_rock
@WHACK_space_rock Жыл бұрын
"...this will not get better unless we figure out human cloning at scale."...What the hell, Peter...wouldn't it be better to get rid of all the hormone disrupters/ toxic siege chemicals in our society...?
@phyarth8082
@phyarth8082 2 жыл бұрын
China lost more people than Mao policy when he lost 60 million people. China lost 200 millions 30 millions loos due gendercide, girls are killed in birth because only male prolongs family name 30 Chines male will never have girlfriends or spouse jus based on that fact, plus 170 million loos due urbanization China has less birth rate than Japan and Germany and that is most industrial countries, plus lungs collapse Covid-19 you can quit smoking but breathing air you can not quit air and clean air is luxury item in big Chinese cities.
@bpjstream
@bpjstream 2 жыл бұрын
I have a solution to this demography problem. In imperial China the emperor had over 100 sons by dozens of women. Each son then went on to have dozens of sons as dukes and princes. If the modern government would allow polygamy and ask these billionaires to support loads of children then it could be seen as a real patriotic way to save their population. Sounds drastic, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Human cloning won't be feasible in our generation. It is already too late. Even if it were permissible to clone embryos, you'd need a generation of willing surrogate mothers. The international and scientific community has a strict taboo on even research into cloning. Polygamy presents significantly fewer ethical and technological challenges than human cloning.
@SynClair
@SynClair Жыл бұрын
What was the reason for the US Navy’s reduced profile in the Persian gulf?
@TheodoreBrinkofski
@TheodoreBrinkofski 2 жыл бұрын
I'm about 15% through your book and I agree with your thesis. However, you don't go into enough details about why demographic collapse is a bad thing. I understand that there's less consumers aged 15-40, but wouldn't there be now more consumers >60? If a nation exports to where there's more consumers, couldn't that offset smaller younger generations? Please elaborate
@Eatbutternow
@Eatbutternow 2 жыл бұрын
I love learning about demographics and geopolitics.
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