Destiny Reveals the Secrets of Casinos

Date streamed: 10/8/2020
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Link to original video: • How to Beat the Casino...

[@Tallefier]

I agree with most of this stuff about counting. However, a couple of things never got mentioned. One. 49.5% being the optimum odds playing perfect blackjack means that, most of the time, the odds are much lower because most people do not play perfect blackjack. Very, very few people I have met as a dealer actually consistently played basic strategy to a 'T'. Almost always they had their own little superstition as to why they go against it sometimes. Or sometimes they just decide to go off of a hunch because the bet is bigger and they get nervous. Always play the cards, not the bet. Also, perfect blackjack basic strategy is not always the same. It depends on number of decks in play and whether or not the dealer hits on a soft 17. So sometimes people argue over what is the "right" move because they don't understand how the odds could shift slightly. Another thing that changes this is whether or not you can double after a split, or how many times you can split aces. An example: on a standard 6 deck shoe, the odds favor splitting a pair of 4's if and only if you are allowed to double after a split on that table. Two. There are two ways counting cards affects the counter's decisions. One is bet variance. This is the most common thing that everyone and their mother knows. The second is less common: knowing when to go against basic strategy. Just as above, when certain house rules or number of decks in play change what basic strategy says to do in any given situation, so, too, does the count. An example is hitting a 16 against a dealer showing a 7. The odds always favor a hit playing basic strategy. However, the margin is very small. Small enough, that, if the count were to be high enough, meaning more high cards in the shoe yet to be played compared to low cards, the odds could shift just enough to favor a "stay" instead of a "hit" in that situation. This also gives 3rd base a slight advantage as they get the most information before making their decision on their hand. This is why, in blackjack tournaments, the starting position shifts after each hand. So no one person gets that advantage the entire time. That being said, my recommendation is 100% to just not gamble. Really, it's not worth the time and effort it takes to be good at it. And, even if you are good, you'll find it increasingly difficult to find a Casino that will let you play the way you want. And, even if you do, you can still run into a string of bad luck. If your bank roll isn't sufficient enough to handle that kind of dip, you won't be able to recover. If you still want to enjoy gambling, but don't want to count to increase your odds because of the hassle and fun it takes away from playing, I recommend limiting the time you play to be relatively short. If the odds are not in your favor, time is your enemy. Get in, get out. If your luck is bad that day, you won't lose as much if you leave early. If your luck is good, you won't have a chance to give it back by staying longer. Also limit the amount of money available to you while in the Casino. People make horrible decisions when they still have access to all their funds after a huge loss. Honestly, almost no one has enough discipline to gamble responsibly who isn't already a card counter. And, if they do, they likely have enough forethought to just not gamble in the first place.

[@Tallefier]

@Anirban Chakrabarti I was a dealer for a little over 10 years

[@isakferm7674]

respect for the effort post. Interesting to know

[@Nacoleptic]

thanks for sharing your wisdom my man

[@chadjazeera9960]

Interesting... Do you have any 7s? 😉

[@letstestthisout2798]

I just want to add a little to this. For those of you who are thinking about making advantage play as a career, if you have the skills to do it, you can probably land a very well paying job in the field of statistics or data science. It's better to sink your time into one of those fields and land a consistent paycheck.

[@TheSandwichmann]

I ate a really good Croque Monsieur with country style ham and whole wheat bread, I hope you all get to eat a really good sandwich as well!

[@tcritt]

go vegan

[@kevinsbacon932]

Thank you sandwich man have a nice weekend

[@mayman4255]

go vegan

[@saetwo3078]

Hey Sandwich Man! I had a burrito bowl today. It was pretty good. Hope this counts

[@DiViNEReject]

Croque madam’s are better.

[@xDECx]

In the UK, almost all casinos will use automatic shuffle machines throughout the game. We put the cards back in every few hands, some casinos put the cards in every hand. Makes it impossible to count and removes downtime from games (they never have to be stopped to put in a new shoe or to shuffle up again), making much, much more money.

[@xDECx]

@D D Dozens? lol you mean a few private ones? Genting and Grosvenor use 6 deck automatic shuffle as standard, you'll need to request a private table for a manual shoe. Thriving? No one who works at casinos even considers card counters anymore, they're not relevant lol.

[@xDECx]

@@juliusebola9712 Well I work in the largest chain of casinos in UK an we use automatic shuffle as standard an had one of our best years until covid, action has never been higher.. so...

[@TheHadMatters]

@@juliusebola9712 This kid genuinely thinks "back in the day" Casinos were run by people who were risk-prone. Fucking grow up, you daydreaming lunatic, or you will never establish anything real in your life.

[@Figgy20000]

Destiny is absolutely right about the pit bosses comping people free shit all the time. Me and my ex were at Casino Niagra a few years ago for about an hour and we were talking about WoW. The dealer chimes in and actually tells us a few of employees and dealers were actually part of their own guild. We strike up a nice conversation and the pit boss comes by and also starts talking to us about it. 30 minutes later the Pit Boss just gives us 2 coupons to their fine dining basically worth $75 a plate out of nowhere. Super nice guys and clearly they aren't super strict about what they can give out when they need/want to.

[@ruebuh]

Casinos LOVE when you win. Dana White cries in millions

[@frankovercrest2317]

Lol, there is no way that Dana had an advantage on the house. He just got lucky with the variance and the dumbass casino kicked him out.

[@Altitudes]

Most of the time you won't even get kicked out for card counting. They'll just flat-bet you and remove your ability to beat the game. Card counting is really easy, but spotting it is just as easy. Edit: Should've watched a bit further before commenting. The thing they don't emphasise enough is that the size of the bet changes need to be very large because your wins need to compensate the losses you've accrued while waiting for a good count. It's this huge change in bet size that makes a counter super easy to spot.

[@Altitudes]

@Andrius B However creative you are you still need your bet size to change sufficiently to overcome the losses you accrue while waiting for a good count. That's what gives it away.

[@Altitudes]

@Andrius B It's a hard one to judge because if people are out there doing it then they typically aren't talking about it. And a lot of the people who talk about being able to do it are selling you the system or the story and that makes me suspicious. I'd guess there's very few who make a living out of it these days and I doubt it's a very good one.

[@Altitudes]

​@Andrius B I come up at it from a poker background. I played a decent level and made some decent money from it. I can tell you this, even if you make a decent amount of money in a profession like that, there's huge downsides. One is there's no security net. No one's giving you sick pay, no one's covering a shift. It's almost impossible to get finance for anything without a fixed income so you need to make enough money to buy everything you want outright. However much fun you think a game is, it gets repetitive and tedious if it's your sole income. If you're counting cards you aren't socialising with people round you. How many hours do you think you want to put into monotonously doing simple maths calcs in your head? How many days a week? Downswings are inevitable, it's a part of the variance of the game. That means you can conceivably go a few weeks without making money, so you need enough money in your account at all times to ride out a bad spell when it comes. Not fun if you've got bills to pay or food to buy. If you average $25 bets you might make $20 an hour or around that. That's average, so your big bets will be significantly more than that, so think how high the stakes need to be before you can start making enough money for to be a lucrative job. And then if you want to get a "real" job, you won't have references, you won't have experience likely to be taken seriously. I say this as someone who used to grind online poker for 5-6 hours a day. I'd have to be making a shit ton of money from blackjack to want to do it.

[@noporcru]

@Andrius B this doesnt hold up for long bc once a casino spots you, youre in a database for both the surrounding area (competing casinos share data to protect themselves) and for that companys database (caesars in vegas will know if you counted in caesars AC) so the chances of you going to another casino after counting isnt likely for very long once you get caught once.

[@OLBarbok]

Modern casinos don't have any risk, just make gacha games.

[@farlado5459]

Isn't that just the lottery?

[@OLBarbok]

@@farlado5459 No because in the lottery you can actually win something lmao

[@OLBarbok]

@Anirban Chakrabarti That question can apply to anything, why do people do that and this, and in the case of gacha it's pretty simple, usually either because they gain an advantage in the game or because they have a pretty waifu to look at.

[@letstestthisout2798]

@Anirban Chakrabarti It's a form of entertainment for a lot of people

[@TheProphessionalGeek]

Casinos love jackpot winners for optics, but there is a certain threshold they won't abide for Craps, blackjack, ect. When you get comped dinner, or a show, that is the Casino trying to incentivize you to stop playing and do something else.

[@christopherr6284]

Casinos increase their odds by counting the drinks people have while gambling.

[@yapheteyob5480]

that's a good one lol

[@Europeanslave]

Destinys mic volume vs the volume of the video he's watching

[@scotthayes8450]

I've always found card counting as an illegal form of play a bit daft. I understand the monetary side for the cas, but realistically it's just a longer, more precise form of probability-based decision making (ie gambling).

[@earthbowser1493]

It's not illegal in any way. But they can ban you from the casino floor for any reason, so if they suspect you of doing it, they just tell you that you're bets aren't welcome there even if it's not illegal.

[@Secret96Magic]

If that's gambling then that would mean that the casinos are just gamblers. But clearly they are not.

[@redwall1521]

@@Secret96Magic Exactly. And as EarthBowser said, it's not illegal, but the casinos can kick you from the floor. And as a business (which they are), they can do that and I would totally understand.

[@stopwritingthatreplyjohnat6638]

doesn't really matter, if it weren't illegal then casinos would universally ban blackjack

[@muskepticsometimes9133]

Destiny wtf is your channel concept? Any I like it. Casinos like people trying counting because gives them more business and most people can't do it successfully. Also the 0.5 pct house edge is really larger. This is because avg player makes mistakes.

[@Sprite_525]

I think the house rules weren’t a measurement of performance, but the mathematical measurement of how the rules of each game in the casino always slant in the direction of the house, even if the player were to make the perfect mathematical set of moves. Players rarely make that set of moves, so the odds are even better. But the reason casinos make so much money is that the game setup itself inevitably works in their favor, so they don’t even need to worry about whether the players always make highly intelligent bets.

[@muskepticsometimes9133]

@@Sprite_525 Yes I agree. You get novices, and you get people who know best play but just make mistakes, then there are those "free" drinks. Interesting what happens when people *do* win? Some will keep gambling and give it back. Even if you quit ahead, if you win 200-300 bucks you go spend it on dinner or drinks to celebrate - usually spending it in casino bars or restaurants.

[@Sprite_525]

muskeptic sometimes - yeah that makes sense. THEN you factor in addiction to gambling. I used to know a gambling addict, he said “we can’t stop until we’ve lost a lot of money.” So the casinos have four big benefits: the math, the newbies/unintelligent, the addicts, and then the very same gamblers spend their winnings on the casino’s other in-house services. It makes sense why casinos spend so much money making sure gamblers don’t have to leave to find dinner, shows, female company, drinks, etc

[@farlado5459]

Yeah I think destiny started by saying this was assuming that all players are playing *perfect* blackjack. Of course the odds shift way further into the house's favor when you factor in being imperfect.

[@BKrandy0]

@@muskepticsometimes9133 I know someone that has literally no clue how to count or even do basic strategy and got kicked out for winning like 300 bucks lmfao

[@EvanSeven7]

Literally just went to the casino the last two days lol. I'm still astounded by the speed of the black jack hands

[@eldrwud6121]

dealers must get a certain number of hands per hour. they are audited every now and then to make sure they are maintaining that

[@WhayYay]

@@eldrwud6121 is there a time limit on how long I have to take a hit or stand then?

[@eldrwud6121]

@@WhayYay no not really. if you are by yourself no one is going to care really.. but if you are at a table with others someone is going to tell you to make a move be it a player or a dealer.

[@snype_94]

On my last trip to vegas, every blackjack table i sat on in MGM owned property auto shuffled every hand.

[@sand1573]

the infinite casino content loop strikes again

[@Priinsu]

Ooh song in the background is Gaze by Moux I listen to that song everyday when I'm reading.😄😄

[@kylemolina8057]

So Destiny almost found out how to count cards.

[@jordandavenport5784]

Yeah, my dad tried counting cards once, they watched him for a while, didn't do anything cuz they were trying to be sure. Then he told this little old lady the play and they told him to leave. Overall solo counting is not that impactful.

[@vexrosenberg7386]

if you're worried about them catching you on the bigger bets then you signal someone else to come over and put the big bets down.

[@stephenlott6968]

4:47 learning to count cards is the easy part. But that's useless without 100% memorizing the basic strategy charts and deviations. It takes a lot of practice to keep track of everything while playing fast enough to not tip off the dealer or pit-boss to what you're doing. Also, most casinos use 6-8 decks but there are casinos with only 2 decks. And there are tables that auto shuffle after every hand, but nobody plays them but suckers.

[@twonickels3693]

Good job dispelling Martingale, and a decent layman’s explanation of card counting. But let me clear a couple of things up really quick. 1. Regarding the house edge and EV of the game. Most blackjack games carry a 0.5% house edge against the basic strategy player. This means for every $100 wagered, the player should expect to lose 50¢. This does not mean the player wins 49.5% of the time, the player actually wins less frequently than that. It’s closer to house wins 52%, player wins 42% and they push 6% of the time. 2. Regarding legality and protections. You did correct yourself, card counting is absolutely legal and in most gaming jurisdictions the casinos have every right to exclude you from play or to trespass you from the property. However, it is true that in New Jersey and Missouri and technically Louisiana, casinos cannot ban or exclude someone from play based on their skill at the game. They can of course implement countermeasures, but there are legal protections in these cases. Even in Nevada there are some legal protections, they cannot detain someone for skilled play, confiscate the cheques (chips) or refuse to cash the cheques. 3. Regarding how advantage players can impact a casino. At the present moment, you’re correct, card counters are not really making a dent in the bottom line of the major gaming companies. That is in part due to the swift action they take against advantage play and the procedures in place, of course good card counters with a bankroll are scarce, but if they were allowed to play in good conditions indefinitely, advantage players would be flocking to those chains and setting up camp and it could become a much larger threat. When we look at smaller casinos, maybe smaller local chains, independently owned joints or smaller tribals. The impact even one advantage player can have on their bottom line is enormous. Say one of these smaller casinos has one pit with 2 blackjack tables, they ordinarily see people playing at the red chip level, $5 up to maybe $20. A skilled card counter enters, and because the smaller casino is likely remote and sees less action, they don’t identify the advantage play as quickly. The card counter is playing with a top bet of say 2 spots of $300 and is generating north of $100 per hundred rounds and plays at a pace of 150 rounds per hour. The smaller play on the floor is not off-setting that and if gone unchecked, could put the table games department in danger of going out of business. Sure, this is less of a threat to MGM, Wynn, El Dorado, etc. but it can be a massive threat to a little dump like Ma & Pa’s Gambling Hall.

[@TheHadMatters]

Except a smaller casino would know its higher risk due to smaller overall turnover, so they would be looking for advantage players more scrutinisingly, no?

[@jogadorjnc]

In reality, even without a max bet, unless you have infinite money on average you'll still be losing money.

[@TheHadMatters]

And if you have infinite money, your turnout on other investments will be so much higher than wasting your time making an unimpressive profit from a casino.

[@colonelchan8459]

Oh lol I was planning on watching this video bc it showed up on my recommended but this works too

[@kingkahuka921]

I once calculated this theory off doubling your bet for roulette. and the odds off losing times the amount loss is still always higher then the odds of winning times the amount won. Even if there is no cap your bankacount becomes the cap, and the change that you lose a fortune is a bigger risk then the profit you're making. Maybe you walk out 99.9% of the time with a bit off profit the other 0.1% is going to be you walking out bankrupt, and in the end the casino earns more from that one moment then all those small amounts together. When you add everything up again you get exactly the 1 in 37 (2.6%) more profit for the casino out of the games played.

[@lmSnarkk]

The roulette theory where you switch from red to black every turn and double on losses?

[@earthbowser1493]

It's called the martingale system, and it (like any other betting system) is a loser in the long run.

[@peterkirk8510]

The way I understood it was that card counters were a problem until they implement these rules/methods to stop you

[@FrodoTbaggens]

At the casino I work in, any BJ table under $40 a hand uses an auto shuffler that contains six decks but after every hand the cards are placed into a loading hopper and those cards are reshuffled back into the deck. The deck shuffles throughout the game and only 3 cards are ever held in true sequence making counting cards impossible.

[@_Razpberrie]

I played at the venetian in macao with 4 decks if I remember correctly. All cards are shuffled after each play.

[@aaronlawrence6350]

In New Jersey in 1982, the court ruled that casinos could not kick out blackjack players who were counting cards. There were 2 reasons. The first was that casinos were kicking out "card counters" who were actually just black people, and casinos were deemed a "place of public accommodation" and thus could not discriminate like a purely private business. The second reason is that casinos in NJ do not make their own rules, there is a statewide gambling commission that makes the rules, and the commission did not ban card counting, so the court said a casino could not unilaterally make a rule against card counting, only the commission could make that rule. This is a famous case they teach you in law school in a Property class.

[@randominternetguy1499]

Forbidden knowledge

[@MultiAsdag]

You need to work as a group (2+ ppl)counting cards. The counters always min bet and then you have the shark (max bettor) come along and sit in only WHEN the count is high. It can easily be eliminated with either shuffling after every couple rounds so count can never get high enough to make it worth while.

[@ktrn709]

Optimal Blackjack play with 99,5%. you lose 50¢ for every 100$. You win much less than 49,5% of the time because otherwise you'd be profiting with the 1,5x black jack and the double bets The double your bet system (martingale) not working has nothing to do whatsoever with the table cap because you can simply change to a bigger table once you hit the cap. You could start at a 10¢ online table and cap it to 10k at the highstakes table. There's simply a tiny chance you will lose all those bets in a row and that tiny chance will eventually happen

[@Half-timeHero]

Edit: Should've waited till 14 minutes Lol Vegas might be different but there are court decisions in some states that essentially allow people to count cards. The decision essentially said that assuming the player isnt using any external people or devices, the casino isn't allowed to discriminate against a player for being better at blackjack. Also, I find an easier way to calculate this stuff is with the expected payout rather than strict probabilities. Essentially SIGMA[P(X)*X] or the weighted summation of all possible payouts. At a value of 1, the odds are perfectly even and should average to no profit or loss over an infinite number of games. >1 means the odds favor the player,

[@flatplant]

Am I crazy or did Steven used to have a check mark on his KZbin channel ?

[@AnarchoTak]

You're crazy that was his Twitter. Or I'm crazy.

[@MichaelP-wo8dh]

You can play at smaller casinos with 2 deck blackjack. It's very easy to take home money this way in Washington state.

[@raiderrocker18]

when they say that counting cards is legally protected they mean the casino cant sue for your fraud, theft, etc of course, a casino can refuse service and kick you out

[@theclimbto1]

You're talking about the Martingale Method, of which there are variations. It's primarily used in Roulette, but the bet itself can be used in anything really. In Roulette, most will take a Martingale out to 8 Plays... meaning you chose a 49% Bet (Red/Black, Even/Odd) and that is the ONLY thing you bet on. For me, I bet Black. The odds of hitting Non-Black 8 times in a row is something like 0.005%. I'm more likely to get hit by lightning while being eaten by a shark while I'm in a bus crash. Still, it happens, and has happened to me. The losing 8 times in a row, I've never been ate by a shark. :D The variation I use is Double the Bet PLUS Ante. So my 5 bet goes to Bet X2, + Ante, or (5*2)+5. So if I Win Hand 1, yay me I doubled my Bet. From 5 to 10. But if I lose, I go to 15, which makes 30. 30 after 2 Plays is 15 a Play. That's even BETTER than my 5 a Play for winning on Hand One. And my odds of Winning on Hand 2 are higher than they were on Hand One, because the odds of losing 2 in a Row are slightly worse than losing once. The bet escalates every time the odds increase to Win, and the Odds increase to Win after every Loss. The issues with the Martingale, and especially my variant, is the cost climbs quickly. That 8th Bet is incredibly expensive. On a $1 USD Table, that 8th Bet is about $266 USD, and I have to bring $502 USD just to run my system to 8 Games on a $1 Table. SO here is how Casinos try to stop this. Min/Max Bet. I sat down at a Casino last week, at a Computer Roulette. I didn't check the Max Bet (like an idiot) because the last Casino I went to had a $1 Minimum and a $10,000 Maximum. That's the Holy Grail, that's the one you want. I lost 5 Times in a row, and was limited to a $99 Max Bet... meaning I could not win it all back on that one bet. Well, I ACTUALLY took that out to 8 Losses in a Row... but I didn't crap out because the Bet Limit. I won the 9th Hand, to get 198, and modified my system to be more aggressive to win back. I Brought $502, ended up at $532, then decided to try another System (combo betting) until I was down to $505 to call it a night. I tried the new system because my system CAN NOT WORK at this machine, and after that near failure figured I'd take a look at a different system in very limited play without exposing what I had brought and only risking the very small gains I had made. So, why do we do this System? Because if I'm winning $1 a Game, as long as I don't lose 8 Games in a Row crapping out (because in my system, when a Run is complete and I finally Win, it comes out to valuing a Win per Hand in the Run... the ORIGINAL Martingale only nets you ONE Win over the Run, meaning you might lose 7 in a row, win the 8th... congrats, you're up exactly the Minimum Bet. In mine, I lose 7, win the 8th... I'm up 8 Minimum Bets.), and I get 60 Games an Hour (1 Game a Minute, which the machines do... the one I was on that was capped was running a Game every 17 Seconds with my betting taking 1-2 of those seconds)... well then I'm generating 60 USD an Hour at a VERY LOW RISK of crapping out (0.005%). It's as close to printing money as you can get. But you have to find Tables that allow the Max Bet to be what you'd need it to be, so you're limited on what Tables you can play. And most people, honestly, don't have the discipline or the intestinal fortitude to follow a system. They'll get bored and up the bet, or they'll get scared and pull the money after 6 Losses, things like that. This method works in Black Jack... but it's SUPER EASY for the Dealer to see. This is why I use the Roulette Machines... which would require software tracking my betting and no one has questioned me yet. So while the Martingale would work in Black Jack, you'd (1) have to be playing PERFECTLY... any misplay by you screws the pooch, and (2) you'd have to be bringing $502 USD to the table to run a simple $1 USD Martingale and (3) you'd be very easy to spot as 'running a system' and being asked to leave.

[@noporcru]

As someone who works in a casino, this was a solid video

[@Yazevo]

Title should be, destiny watches a video and adds zero value but takes twice as long to get thru the video because he has to explain the content contained within instead of just letting the video play...

[@DiseasedMoss]

VivianWolf creepin in the chat at 4:16

[@davidc5867]

Nice catch

[@MarceloAbans]

@14:20 It's protected in NJ. Ultimately NJ supreme court said, you can't ban someone because they got good at your game. As a result, Jersey shore casinos employ countermeasures to hinder card counters. They try to impede a card-counting blackjack player by using eight-deck shoes, shuffling at will to thwart bet variance and instructing the dealers to move the cut card near the top of the shoe. I'm not entirely sure but I believe sports was used as an example, like you can't ban someone for being TOO good but that's in NJ and in Vegas they will ban you. It's a weird space

[@marklenington]

Was the narrator talking about a poker-ish casino game or actual poker with only other players where the house takes a rake?

[@Tallefier]

Ya that wording was weird. Carnival games like 3 Card Poker, Ultimate Texas Hold'em, Mississippi Stud, 4 Card Poker, etc... have way worse odds than Blackjack for the player. But actual poker games with a rake? He should've been more specific. I have to hope he meant the carnival style poker games and not actual live poker.

[@Paxsali]

Why don't they just take one deck per player and thereby allow duplicate cards on one table and the whole counting cards gig goes off the window... would there be a problem in terms of overall rules or winning/losing probabilities? EDIT: I mean in Blackjack.

[@twonickels3693]

That would actually benefit the card counter. Not only would they only have to count their own cards, but if they get their own deck then the civilians aren’t eating cards from their positive deck.

[@BKrandy0]

I know someone that got kicked out of a casino not far from me for being up $300 in blackjack, dude doesn't even know basic strategy, just got lucky, got kicked out. Casinos do love win stories because it's good for business, but they also have some dumb pit bosses sometimes

[@chadjazeera9960]

It could have been for a number of other reasons. I worked security at a casino and I never threw anyone out for counting or cheating. I threw tons of people out for being rude or aggressive. Not saying you are wrong at all, but you never know.

[@BKrandy0]

@@chadjazeera9960 It's a shitty casino in lmao

[@Tocinos]

the first comment is edited, so we will never know what the first comment was

[@ihateyou8006]

damn bru thats deep as fuck.

[@travelerfinder7840]

@TheEsotericZebra the first comment before it was edited was "first!" if they tell you otherwise they are lying. I know how the internet works

[@vanomxxx]

*THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS*

[@pey-yote]

“Risk”

[@roadgnome9166]

Btw face cards are -1. 2-6 are +1 to the count

[@M21assult]

I don't play at casinos, but I don't bet quite that way with the family. I'll do 5-15-45-135-405. I always atleast double my money out on a win that way lol. But, it's a lot easier to do when you aren't dealing with real currency, and it does get rather expensive quite quickly. With a $200 table that could be quite challenging.

[@YemYum]

personally, i dont understand why anyone would go and bet at a casino. Everyone knows that the house always wins in the long run, yet people are happy to take those odds, and end up depressed when they lose all their money. Your chances of winning big are not as high as your chances of losing big.

[@Forcyctus]

While generally correct, Destiny, you got a couple of things wrong. First, with using a one of those “perfect Blackjack strategy” cards, also commonly known as “hit charts”. Blackjack is a game that has many variations to it. Whether it’s the number of decks in a shoe, whether the cards are played face up or face down, and what the actual payout is on getting blackjack (3:2, 6:5, etc). Each variation has its own hit chart, so it’s not as easy as looking online for a generic hit chart. Secondly, even having the correct hit chart memorized or with you at a table, the odds can potentially not swing in your favor, depending on how many players are at that table, and whether or not THEY play perfect blackjack strategy. Further, there are some instances where card counting is protected- but it depends on the style of casino you’re playing at. Indian casinos and Vegas style casinos will shut down card counting on the spot. In California style casinos, however, things work much different. Players don’t play against the casino itself, so card counting isn’t an issue they have to worry about.

[@twonickels3693]

Your second point is incorrect. The way another player plays their hand has no bearing on the odds of the game for a player that is playing correctly. Another player’s bad play could help or hurt you. People tend to have selective memories that serve to confirm their already held beliefs. The reality is, although it’s frustrating when some doofus hits his 16 against a 5, sometimes he draws a ten and the dealer makes a hand, sometimes he draws a small card and the dealer breaks. Sometimes it has absolutely no impact, and other times he takes the ten and the dealer breaks anyways or vice versa. You don’t know what order the remaining cards are in, so another player pissing money away by splitting tens against an 8 or something only hurts that player’s expectation.

[@1ch1r10]

I think the problem with the martingale strategy is, that provided the house has an edge on each hand, you're still more likely to go bankrupt than to make a decent profit. The table max just doesn't seem like a good enough argument, because nothing is stopping you from switching to another table, or making an entirely different bet, like sports for example. When you're at the limit of 200$, you can switch to any other almost 50% chance bet for higher stakes to get your money back. If the table maximum was the only problem, then martingale would be a winning strategy for sports betting for example but it's still not. One of the crucial reasons why card counting is profitable, is the payout for getting a blackjack hand It is quite astounding that the video Destiny is reacting to, nor the video he watched mention this even once. The standard for paying out a blackjack combination (Face card or ten+Ace) is usually 3 to 2. When you bet 100$ and get a blackjack, you should win 150$, provided that the dealer doesn't have a blackjack, otherwise it's a tie. If the count is in your favor, it is largely so, because you're way more likely to get a blackjack combination. Casinos in Vegas are known to reduce those payouts from 50% to something like 20%, which actually makes a huge difference. Working in european casinos for 8 years, I have come across THE TOTAL OF 2 people that were suspected of counting cards and both of them actually ended up losing in the long run. Casinos implemented procedures to shuffle more often and if you count a 6 deck shoe and get to play only 3 decks, you're fucked. It's also a general procedure to "burn" an amount of cards before the shoe starts. Some casinos will burn the first five cards facedown, that also discourages card counters. Lastly I don't think that giving you free meals, drinks and hotel rooms means that the casinos are happy for you winning. I don't think they ever are and that this is a tactic to get their money back as you're more likely to get drunk and reckless. They're not depressed if somebody wins, however they will do everything they can, to get their money back. "This guy won a milion dollars and flew it home to california with him and he's not going to end up losing it here, HOORAY, let's be happy for him." That's just not in anyone's business model. If that happens, they'll try to make lemonade and turn it into free advertising, which works very well; if he won so much, maybe I'll win too. But they still absoFUCKINGlutely want their money back.

[@noporcru]

While I agree with the cap section of the video, people can usually play more than 1 spot. So if I lose $80 and cap is $100 I can bet two spots at $80 each to possibly make $160

[@HiCaballo]

Casinos love their big winners because they know they’ve hooked a potential big loser in the future. That’s why they get addtl amenities and free rooms, and as Destiny alluded to that while maybe 3-5 big winners are happening with hundreds or thousands of losers isn’t such a hard bullet to bite.

[@arthurgoonie4596]

he got the +1 -1 wrong if the card is a low card then its a +1 the higher positive number then the odds are more in your favour.

[@TheDilla]

even with zero cap, the strategy doesn't work, as you need exponentially more money for each loss, just to win 5 dollars. 100-200-400-800-1600-3200-6400-$12,800. Betting $12,000 just to win 5, is not a good deal for you. And after you hit 100, you have a 1/256 chance of that happening, which if you are playing for hours and hours, WILL happen. The ONLY way that works is if you have LITERALLY infinite capital.

[@DWlsh43]

24:00 HAHAHAH i did this on roulette in vegas last year and thought i was a mastermind. Until i got really unlucky and lost it all eventually (it was like 12 black in a row). It was pure casino profit from previous winning so idc but that's funny that you called me out

[@theclimbto1]

The odds of 8 Non-Black (or Non-Red, or Non-Even, or Non-Odd... since they are all on the same Win Rate) is just over 0.005%. So hitting 12 losses is a row is INSANE. Happens, just insane. Stay away from EVERYTHING my man, you likely to be eaten by a shark while struck by lightning while being in a bus crash. LMAO! By the way, it's a variant of the Martingale System that you were employing.

[@WarlordWagie]

The idea that Destiny rejects the idea that casino's throw out big winners who aren't advantage play doesn't seem true. My only example is Dana White, who is big time gambler and is banned from a bunch of casinos.

[@cabbagedestroyer1693]

He got kicked out for counting cards, and you dont necessarily get banned from the casino, but are banned from playing Black Jack.

[@SystemFreak17]

I work at a pretty big casino outside of vegas. ~1k hotel rooms. We absolutely have barred non advantage players from tables for winning big. Sometimes they're allowed non card games or carnival games. It absolutely does happen.

[@cabbagedestroyer1693]

@@SystemFreak17 okay, what percentage of big winners do casinos ban? And why were they banned? If the reason is because they hit a jackpot and won big then every single person who hit jackpot would've been banned and if that's the case why would anyone bother going to that specific casino? If only a small percentage were banned, then there has to be a reason for them to be banned while not others.

[@SystemFreak17]

@@cabbagedestroyer1693 so this would never happen with a slot player, the machines are just too consistent. But an admittedly small percentage because because while they may clear out the rack one trip, they're either already in the hole or they're going to make another trip. The recent two that come to mind, one was right after covid reopening, this lady cleared us out for 6-800k give or take each week for several weeks in a row. We were just too financially precarious. The 1% hold we expect is across an infinite number of games but it swings wildly shoe to shoe so the other guy just had the bank roll to play through a few bad shoes. When he got a shoe he felt was giving him good cards he'd press it. To be clear on a streak =/= counting. He'd been count checked many many times over but lifetime he was so far ahead of us we couldn't afford his play. Both of these people were playing private table $10k/hand. If someone on the main floor takes 50k in a lucky weekend, then by all means good for them.

[@BKrandy0]

They want SOME jackpot winners in the news and shit, but they def ban people that got lucky

[@tmnumber1]

What if you make 10k card counting and then get caught? Do u keep the money?

[@twonickels3693]

Yes, the casino cannot refuse to cash you out. They can exclude you from playing, but they cannot steal your money.

[@evancornish656]

if anyone is curious from a more formal mathematical perspective, Destiny talks at about the martingale strategy at around 25:30 and why it's unprofitable. He mentions that it's unprofitable because of the cap, and while that does make it even worse employing the martingale would still lose money over time even if the table had no cap. the reason is, the weighted average of your bet is always negative. If you bet $100 at 49.5% chance of winning and a $200 payoff when you win, the results are $200*(0.495) = $99 or in winnings, you're -$1. if you then bet $200, by the same math you're -$2 on that bet, -$3 for the strategy etc. If you take the limit of your bets as they approach infinity, you keep getting more and more negative numbers added together. It all stems from the fact that you can't add infinity negative numbers together and get a positive number. Even if there's no table cap this wouldn't matter, you'd just lose huge amounts of money into infinity. The reason this strategy seems so appealing is because human minds are very terrible about grasping the concept of infinity. It's not very intuitive what it means to do something repetitively into infinity.

[@Dieze]

wait, do you have an article or something that explains this? that sounds really wrong to me the only way you can lose is if you're capped, either by the table or by your capital... otherwise you would have to lose every bet into infinity, the chance of which approaches zero...

[@evancornish656]

@@Dieze It's hard for the human mind to understand infinity, because it's not a real number. Realistically if you have an infinite bankroll then so too does your opponent. In which case there is an infinitely small but non zero chance that you would indeed lose every single trial run into infinity. It's hard for us to conceive of that because it's so unrealistic and we tend to dismiss such small probabilities as 0%. However they do exist, and in that instance you would essentially be stuck at the table gambling away for infinite time. In reality every single entity in the world has a limited bankroll, and would eventually hit the implied cap of betting your entire net worth, or so much of your net worth that you would no longer be capable of doubling your next bet. If you wanted to make the argument "I can have so much larger a bankroll than my opponent such that martingaling would effectively force him to go broke before I lost all my money." That would indeed be true and possible. However I doubt anyone was a sufficiently larger bankroll than any corporate casino to actually do such a thing. To expand further, there is a paper by Scott Lalonde titled "The Martingale Stopping Theorem" that you can look into.

[@muskepticsometimes9133]

Craps in house favor but by very small margin

[@bulldozer8950]

I think the point about them not losing money from illegal methods is poorly explained. Most casinos have insurance if some sort so if they get robbed it’s probably not their money that’s actually disappearing from that. There’s no card counting insurance so if someone can get an edge over the house they’re actually losing the money, not “losing” it. If they don’t even detect the robber that’s something else, but in most situations they’ll get the robber and get the money back, and if they don’t they’ll have insurance for that shit.

[@cthulhu00alt19]

Hahaha this doesn't work with casino's that have the decks shuffle after each hand. All the Australian casino's have those machines that shuffle constantly. Card counting is NOT illegal under federal, state and local laws in the United States as long as players don't use any external card-counting device or people who assist them in counting cards. In their effort to identify card counters, casinos can ban players believed to be counters.

[@tyronelol]

6 decks in Australia

[@clouttyoutty8290]

Casinos in Austrlia (Crown casino in perth I know 100%) use 8 decks and auto shuffle after every hand

[@clouttyoutty8290]

using auto shuffle machines

[@imbazed22]

My mom used to be a casino

[@donaldmarcato7003]

“Nobody does that” Literally auto-shufflers are a thing, ok buddy. Most tables on the strip are 6/5 blackjack with either a 6 deck shoe or a continuous automatic shuffler. I actually have more fun at auto-shuffler tables because basic strategy has the completely random expected odds every hand with lower chance of streaks for or against you.

[@The_Daliban]

KZbin arc yyyyay

[@jonathanharoun5247]

Destiny needs to react to Kaiji

[@gabrielfrench9813]

NEW JERSEY CARD COUNTING IS LEGAL

[@jlann8243]

Omg Destiny we are twinning. We have the same bday Dec 12, 1988, and both worked at a Casino. But Im a bartender fuck being a manager.

[@FTWorWTF]

I know saying this kinda shit is a meme, but seeing that suit really does highlight that Destiny is a very attractive man.

[@catzkhan2836]

The doubling bet is actually called a Martingale and originated in 18th century France

[@DominicAB]

Bro it's not like someone needed to invent that. I remember thinking of this strategy in WoW when deathrolling when I was like 12

[@sk8sbest]

Yeah. Looked into it for a trading bot but soon realized that wasn't a good thing to venture into.

[@jacobniedermayer8924]

Should go 5 -->10-->15 because 5+10 is 15 to recoup your loss on the first 2 hands in that last example, 20 is the greed bet

[@dom2752]

You're playing to win money not come out even

[@jacobniedermayer8924]

@@dom2752 That's correct, but in the example posed, you merely double the bet to break even on a loss. So, if you're looking at it from the perspective of the betting pattern, it's not sequentially correct. The second bet doesn't put you ahead, and if not for the 3rd bet being out of sequence, you'd continue to not be ahead. 5-->10 (5+5) --> 20 (10+10, gain +5) --> 40 (20+20, net gain +5) the pattern continues. The only reason you're up $5 is because you deviate after losing the second bet, but this isn't what he's trying to express.

[@Blender_and_Chirp]

Destiny explained this wrong. It has nothing to do with knowing what comes next it’s all about hitting blackjack at 2 to 1 payout which no one does anymore so this entire video is incorrect.

[@2falltoofly81]

This dude is super smart

[@vandal2811]

Meh... Still works for roulette for me. I just wait for a color (48% chance of winning 52% chance of losing) to occur 3 times in a row and then bet on it's opposite and double my bet til I win. I get to max bet around the 7th. I have yet to get there (to my max bet). I think my chances to lose are 0.52^10 if I bet on the series aka on the 10th part of the series there's only a 10% of a 1% chance of losing. You can claim all you want, but I've never seen red or black win 10x in a row in my life, it should occur once every 1000 ball rolling but... I'm pretty sure the casino tricks it. So you could say my style of betting relies on the roulette game occurring whether I bet or not (not computerized).

[@hamdoggius]

Hey, ex croupier here, got 33 blacks in a row once. Had a guy bet against it for 20 spins before he left.

[@bulldozer8950]

Lol I’ve done the double bet thing before on a coin flip thing on a Minecraft server (similar to sky block on hypixel). Eventually lost like 100x what I bet originally, and I didn’t have enough money to play again. Hilarious in a Minecraft server where I could make it back in an hour running an automatic farm, terrible idea in real life. Remember, the chance you flip a coin 8 times in a row on one side of a coin in 100 flips is like 50% or something like that.

[@blackfangofargentina]

Destiny is just wrong about casinos kicking out winners. Dana White has been perma banned from multiple casinos for winning too much

[@RealityChecks]

My 11-year-old son can count cards. It's not helpful enough for me to try and sneak him into a casino... it doesn't give much of an edge at all.

[@lmSnarkk]

Anyone can count cards, we both watched the video right?

[@ivans3483]

I never understood why so many people liked gambling at casinos. They are designed to make money not lose it. To me it's just a place to throw away time and money. Like I can't believe their isn't something else that exists for people to do the same in mass but has favorable or equal odds of succeeding or being self fulfilling. I'll never see the appeal of casinos.

[@MihkelMacaroni]

bro all those flashing lights, ringing sounds, and dopamine bathing really wires you to gamble again after your first jackpot. some people are much more receptive to this genetically, no source cause I'm lazy, but take my word, I just don't know the specific factor that influences it

[@ivans3483]

@@MihkelMacaroni I understand but I'm not some kid who just loses his sense of reason because of pretty and shiny things.

[@rolln8ths]

Everyone look up the pechanga casino and come give me more money

[@inxiti]

Wait... Destiny worked at a casino?? Did anyone know before THIS "my time in a casino" video??

[@RanEncounter]

Yes. He has talked about this plenty of times. He even said he liked the casino job so much that he dropped out of school.

[@inxiti]

@@RanEncounter Next you'll try to tell me he cleaned carpets.

[@RanEncounter]

@@inxiti Well yes did you know he worked as a carpet cleaner too? How did you know what I was going to say next?

[@hamdoggius]

The Casino I used to work at uses 4 deck shuffle machines on the low cash tables. It happens.

[@MrCrisco145]

Can you get Colin Jones on, you have a blind spot on some issues. #respect

[@Felinewithanm9]

I tried

[@paulgotik]

25:50 the probability of losing 5 in a row is "like 3%" but the probability of losing again after losing 4 times in a row it's still 50%. You are not doing statistics right.

[@legoboy7825]

Pretty sure that’s how statistics work. The likelihood of a thing repeating over and over drops every time it happens, but the true odds never change.

[@paulgotik]

@@legoboy7825 in the video Destiny says that after losing a bunch of times the probability of losing in the next round is 3 % wich is not true, it's still 50 %.

[@legoboy7825]

@@paulgotik he literally addresses that in the video. Also, math disagrees with you here. The probability of getting heads or tails a number of times in a row is lower.

[@paulgotik]

@@legoboy7825 his explanation is wrong, that's why I corrected it. Yes getting in a row the probability is lower, but in each time you flip a coin it's always 50% no matter what you got earlier.

[@legoboy7825]

@@paulgotik Okay, and he never said the 50/50 changed, just that the probability of continuing a streak decreases the more in a row you get...

[@yd1813]

how does he know this

[@kaganluvstacos]

He worked in a casino for like 3 years.

[@sophiajin6469]

how tf are yall so smart

[@Pensive_117]

What do you mean?

[@mmartinisgreat]

Nope vegas dealers don't like talking. Some do.

[@JesseS.]

baccarat has best odds but only asian guys play it lol

[@jertsupertsu]

100 gecs

[@jordandowler2344]

gambling is objectively stupid. finanacially i mean, I get having a little bit of fun

[@BKrandy0]

paying money for fun isn't stupid, just don't go broke lmfao

[@Fadeinwow]

dana white has been kicked from most casinos, simply for winning big

[@jordanh3665]

yeah, but there's winning big, and then there's winning like what dana white was doing

[@twonickels3693]

Yeah, he was playing with bet sizes that the casinos just weren’t comfortable with from a risk management perspective.

[@Altitudes]

The doubling your bet size is called the Martingale system. It's a weird thing to think about intuitively but it doesn't work. On coin flips the system is 0ev i.e. break evens. On a casino game it's losing. The easiest way to think about this is that your next bet is an independent probability, previous bets don't have any impact on the next outcome, and since your next bet is -ev (negative expectation) you're expecting to lose money on it. You can make an argument that with no table limits and an infinite bankroll it might work, but that's more a problem with the concept of infinity and its weird paradoxes.

[@RanEncounter]

Except if you are counting cards and you have some knowledge of the leftover deck.

[@Altitudes]

@@RanEncounter Card.counting and the Martingale system are two different things.

[@RanEncounter]

@@Altitudes Yes and they both are often used in card counting to get the best result.

[@Altitudes]

@@RanEncounter Not really. If you're playing well then you're making bets based on supporting a bankroll long enough to ride out the statistical variance. That means using a sustainable bet size so you don't go broke, which the Martingale system completely ignores. If you wanted to bet size well you'd use the Kelly criterion.

[@RanEncounter]

@@Altitudes Ah sorry you are correct. I talked about in general you want to adjust the bet according to your calculated chance. When you have higher chances of winning, you bet higher and when you have lower chances of winning you bet the minimum.

[@adelinared1]

Five

[@0ktk]

19:43 Intentionally engaging in suboptimal play can be as simple as pretending to be a novice and purposely hitting on a bad opening hand for one of your low bets though.

[@kingoliever1]

Well i would not clicked when this would be just called counting cards for idiots.

[@burnhitsforlove3317]

Real idiots yea🙃

[@BrenR]

How would the casino’s “advantage in poker” be 3%? You don’t play against the house when you play poker. It’s the only game at the casino where you can be a favorite because you play against other people and not the house. It’s a full-on strategy game. They make money by taking a small portion of every pot, called the rake. Maybe that’s the 3% they’re referring to. But it’s not the casino edge, it’s just their fee basically (rake)

[@reubena7854]

I could have sworn destiny said one time he worked at a casino

[@hugonamenlos7218]

He did

[@ssengageisop3952]

He did

[@gd8838]

He did

[@ColtyT33]

He did

[@muskepticsometimes9133]

Make 5 dollar bets you lose 5 cents per hand. But you get free drink every 30 minutes