eVTOLs & Why So Many Automakers Want In - AAH 702

TOPICS:
- Flying cars are just around the corner
- Electric, Autonomous VTOLs can use automotive tech
- Why automakers are building the wrong vehicles with the wrong trim
- Faster turnover = Faster Cash Flow
PANEL:
Rick Wainschel, Cloud Theory
Tim Jackson, Author “Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?”
Gary Vasilash, shinymetalboxes.net
John McElroy, Autoline.tv
INSTAGRAM: / autolinenetwork
TWITTER: / autoline
FACEBOOK: / autolinenetwork
WEBSITE: www.autoline.tv

[@bobwallace9753]

Oops, stupid statement. A delivery for Tesla is a sale to the final customer. Tesla does not count a vehicle sold until the customer takes possession. Legacy, on the other hand, counts a car sold when it rolls out the factory door. It's "sold" to a dealer. Then it goes and sits for long periods of time waiting for someone to actually buy it. BTW, much of Tesla's "inventory" is simply cars that are between the factory door and not yet in the buyer's hands. In the case of exported cars a Tesla can stay in Tesla's inventory for a few weeks while they accumulate enough to fill a shipment, the ship moves from port to port, and the car gets unloaded and transported to the buyer. Tesla inventory means something quite different from legacy inventory.

[@technologyandsociety21C]

I call "BS" on Tim Jackson's claim that you can leave your ICE car running in a closed garage without worrying about suffocating. Can you say, "Carbon Monoxide"?

[@timjackson9106]

@@technologyandsociety21C The tailpipe emissions citation is on new cars 🚗 todayZ. According to some studies, they are 99.7% cleaner than anything available just 50 years ago. Someone to do themselves and with the car running in a garage based on K’Orean monoxide, better pack a couple of lunches. It will take a while. In fact, they would never succumb based on new car vehicle emissions..

[@hoffinger]

My 1997 Nissan Quest has zero CO when warmed up. But all ICE engines put out, 2.5ppm particles which can cause cancer and heart disease, asthma etc.

[@davemiller6121]

Who's hanging out in a garage while an ice vehicle is running. This is the first time I've heard that this is possible without suffocating to death.

[@pistonburner6448]

That's a great example of how misinformed the public is (and politicians, the media too). People don't have a clue how clean modern cars are, what incredible progress has been done since let's say 1970. Basically no emissions which affect human beings. I have with me a graph, which I can't post on this platform as it doesn't allow links, in which a German research paper showed how ICE cars don't only clean polluted city air as they have done for decades, but nowadays they further clean air which is already labeled 'clean' by scientists. (Not necessarily directly applicable to US cars because in the US gasoline cars aren't mandated to have particle filters like they are in Europe). Air pollution doesn't come from modern cars, it comes from heavy vehicles (trucks, busses), industry, shipping, power plants and heating, fires, and a small amount comes from very old cars. Some also comes from friction between car tires and the road surface, which is much higher on EVs.

[@TheRosebudz]

I don't believe that non-sense and want to see this guy try it

[@user-to2rf1rj5v]

25:43 What? A delivery IS a sale for Tesla. They do not count a car as delivered until it's handed over to a customer. Unlike legacy auto, a sale is not a delivery to a dealership, where it might sit for 90 days.

[@who2u333]

If we haven't made rail autonomous, air travel won't be.

[@davidpearn5925]

Bring on the 'midair' action......and that's not even considering weather...... FAA ATC pfft. What could possibly go wrong ?!.

[@billy-go9kx]

I think there should be an age requirement for first customers. Customers that watched the Jetsons on black and white TV's.

[@jonpetter8921]

Lilium is ahead of those eVTOLS. It s also German.

[@timjackson9106]

Yes, Lilium Jet is an excellent concept (pre-production really) eVTOL. I have a chapter in the book on Lilium. And Lilium is one I cited as being in Top Ten Most Likely to Succeed. I think Lilium.

[@jonpetter8921]

@@timjackson9106Is your book available online ?

[@hoffinger]

Automotive emissions are measured when the vehicle is warmed up. When starting from cold emissions are quite noticeable. Just walk beside a vehicle when starting and you can smell the unburned hydrocarbons. Acids produced by the cat when not fully warmed up are obvious. I am a retired automotive/ marine tech. There can be a long line of cars driving slowly on the main street by me and I can always smell the ones that have just started driving. I also can hear and smell the hybrids that had their cats stolen.

[@bobwallace9753]

Watching Kodak moments develop.

[@vecamiolo]

Really great episode today. Especially the segment on eVTOLs. I’m very interested as I own Joby, Archr and Lilm stock.

[@MichaelAllen-td1uu]

I don’t want vtols to fly over my house.

[@pistonburner6448]

We could actually take that negative aspect / conflict and turn it into a positive thing, make it a sport: People on the ground can 'shoot' at eVTOLs with safe low-power-laser devices approved for that function, and if they score a 'hit' registered by the eVTOL's sensors or the shooting device's system then the eVTOL must go around the shooter's property. Possibly also a 'hit' gives them a score, which over time can award them a small prize. People who just want to avoid having them fly over can install an automated device which sends a signal prohibiting overflight, or actually cities/counties would probably arrange for maps which set up data on which spots they're not allowed to fly over at low altitude. (But at high altitude of course they're allowed to fly just like all other aircraft)

[@StewartMidwinter]

You are more at risk of a yahoo with a car or pick up truck crashing into your house

[@MichaelAllen-td1uu]

@@StewartMidwinter I’m more concerned about noise than an accident.

[@StewartMidwinter]

@@MichaelAllen-td1uu ​​⁠ thanks for explaining, that's a valid concern. I don't want to live near a noisy street, either. I've gone and looked up what the noise level is, and the best answer is one from the company themselves with actual audio recordings of several types of aircraft, including their own, flying overhead. Spoiler alert, theirs is the quietest of all. kzbin.info/www/bejne/n6WzaWBpn5eIkKs

[@stickynorth]

I suspect they'll be subject to the same regulations as helicopters...

[@urbanstrencan]

Interesting topic on how automakers push different car types to different parts of the US, Another great episode

[@darwinbeloate2978]

Enjoyed the insights of Cloud Theory's Rick Wainschel. The way an auto manufacturer allocates/distributes vehicles can have a notable impact on whether the dealer body has frozen capital or fast turning merchandise. I can see how Cloud Theory can help refine the decisions made by manufacturers and dealers. I'm not sure that I am on board with Rick's explanation that the reason F-150 sales fell was due to the late model year change over. Generally, when a company has a late change over they ramp up the incentives on the older model year and the lower transaction price allows them to take sales / market share in the segment (lower price sells product).

[@MikeRobot]

Any vtol boeing is involved in i would never get in.

[@stickynorth]

If it's Boeing, I'm not going!

[@stickynorth]

Lilium Jet is the most promising of the bunch if you ask me. The test footage of flights over Germany is both eerie and awesome... Now they are the future! It's sleek, professional, well funded and most importantly well designed and built!

[@davidbeppler3032]

27:30 Cybertruck steals Ford F-150 sales. Ford sales drop 8%.

[@michaeloreilly657]

Tim Jackson really has his head in the clouds. A 737 or A320 holds over 160 passengers. In order to transport these we would need over 40 eVTOLs FOR EACH PLANE! And then start counting for the 787, 777, A330 and A350. You'll need thousands of these around an airport filled with airplanes that have to do Go Arounds and other interesting manoeuvres. And that's before you consider severe weather, malfunction emergency procedures or birds, where autonomy is 100% useless. Just do the logical thing that most of the rest of the non US world (including India, John) does - build high quality, high speed, high capacity airport rail. This eVTOL mass transit hype is just pie in the sky that may be useful for people with too much money or a very large marketing budget. Have all in Autoline lost their ability for critical thinking?

[@timjackson9106]

Thanks for watching. Your points are good, of course. The eVTOLs used for Urban Air Mobility and taking people to the airport, they will be taking the place of Ubers, Lyfts, Taxis and buses in getting people to the airport. They will NOT be like a 787, 777, A330 or A350. They are so much smaller they cannot be compared with long haul flights. And this is a long term change. The immediate change is them being available all. I still want one of my own (or 5) and also want to take the flying taxi to the airport.

[@anydaynow01]

@@timjackson9106 Yep, they would probably take off from designates sights around a city. My only concern is noise pollution, a small drone is loud enough I can only image how much louder one large enough to carry several humans and their cargo would be. There would definitely need to be designated "skyways" and hours of operation.

[@stickynorth]

The best solution for urban congestion is still TRAINS, TRAINS, TRAINS... Automated, electric trains that Canada is increasingly obsessed with financing and building... Vancouver's Skytrain, Toronto's Ontario Line and Montreal's REM... Two are open now with the third under construction... And Vancouver and Toronto already have downtown to airport train connections. Only Montreal's Dorval is still needing REM extension which is being tested as we speak... Ottawa just opened their rail link to their airport, Calgary has one planned and Edmonton is debating whether to finance a new hyperloop like technology, build a conventional commuter rail, build a high speed network to Calgary OR extend the wildly popular LRT...

[@WiltonLiveTV]

Tim- I think you’re over simplifying the jobs commercial airline pilots actually do. But I understand your point.

[@timjackson9106]

Just got back to this WiltonLiveTV. I just arrived in Europe for a fam trip here. Spent about 10 minutes in the cockpit of the 787 Dreamliner before takeoff. We were talking about the airlines, aircraft maker and automaker investments in eVTOLs. Both the captain and first officer were impressed that the Wisk VTOL (wholly owned by Boeing) is being built without pilot controls, the Captain made comment, 'computers fly this machine everywhere we take it.' ..... I agree with you that it sounds like an oversimplification, though most commercial jets nearly fly themselves. Can say that even as scary as it sounds.

[@lesliecarter4295]

Hydrogen based e-fuels for helicopters are being developed. This will probably stop the development of battery powered vtols before the concept takes off..?

[@markjmaxwell9819]

Toyota also provides some battery technology and experience as well as manufacturing advice to Joby Aviation with FAA certified flying vehicles expected by 2026.... 😎🇦🇺

[@timjackson9106]

Mark: Truth! Toyota is a valuable and heavily invested partner with Joby Aviation and its new eVTOL aircraft.

[@shiakas]

50:53 What is he saying??? Please don't park your ICE car in the garage and leave it running, someone will die...

[@AutolineDetroit]

No, he's right. Carbon monoxide emissions have been reduced to the point that you may get a headache in a closed garage with a car engine running, but you will not die.

[@TheRosebudz]

@@AutolineDetroit what about diseasel?

[@vecamiolo]

@@TheRosebudzI have both a Mercedes diesel and a newer Subaru gasoline car. I back both cars into my garage. With the diesel I sense no exhaust whatsoever. With the Subaru I can’t wait to get out of there. I suspect other interests killed the diesel. My diesel is quiet (no one thinks it’s a diesel) smooth and powerful. It’s delightful to drive. I also own a Hyundai Ioniq 5 N!

[@MichaelAllen-td1uu]

When you take in the price increase on redesigned models, sedans have not had as big an increase price therefore bringing more attention to those vehicles i.e Corolla, Camry, Accord, Civic.

[@danharold3087]

Joby has 1 maybe 2 units being tested by the military.

[@timjackson9106]

Hi Dan Harold. Joby has partners inside government helping them. One is NASA. The other is Air Force. You are correct that Joby has a limited number of units for testing, They are working to get more units built. Their factory planned for Dayton, OH, is hoped to be built soon so they can increase count if units.

[@timjackson9106]

@danharold3087 Both NASA and US Air Force is helping Joby Aviation

[@kevtheobald]

VTOLs will take a couple of decades to truly get traction. It is a nice dream that it will happen very soon, but not realistic. Comparing large passenger jets to VTOLs is a major stretch. Putting so many more aircrafts in the air will overload air traffic control systems. Imagine 100 times more aircrafts flying. Air traffic will be a major nightmare. This issue will not be solved easily.

[@RonnieLeeDuck]

I'm more optimistic than that. It sounds more viable and sensible than robotaxi fleets. But I take your point. I was bit disappointed in not hearing more about how it will work in practice. Obviously there needs to be designated flight paths and a lot of support monitoring. I'm still skeptical of the safety with weather events and any kind of debris flying around. If they were to do this in any volume I would also think there needs to be some infrastructure support for landing and passengers coming and going.

[@timjackson9106]

eVTOLs are not intended to replace long-haul commercial passenger jets. If that impression came though it was certainly not intended. In fact, one primary reason that airlines are investing in eVTOLs is to enhance commercial jet service. They seek to make passenger travel more convenient. if they can help channel passenger transportation to and from the airport from major urban centers, they may be able to retain those passengers as customers whe high speed rail or other forms of commuting to and from urban center airports. Thanks for comment and the opportunity to clarify my comment.

[@timjackson9106]

@@RonnieLeeDuck Indeed. Agreed.

[@nigelcharles511]

eVTOLs are very interesting but range/payload is still going to be the major limitation until the next quantum jump in energy storage density. Short distance air taxi might be workable but it is likely to be a very specific application. Electric conventional aircraft will use energy more efficiently but still struggle with the range/payload problem. eVTOLs have the one advantage of not needing runways but their reduced efficiency will always reduce their range/payload capability. The difference in fuel consumption for a given range/payload between a helicopter and a conventional aircraft show how big the efficiency difference will be. Also I see these vehicles being more weather limited than some other aircraft. Will they still be able to operate in heavy precipitation? The weather limitations are likely to be more restrictive if they are totally automated (ie no pilot). A pilot requirement will add a significant percentage loss of usable payload.

[@timjackson9106]

Battery weight and density is an issue for eVTOLs just as it with electric cars. Since this show was recorded, Joby Aviation (one of most successful eVTOL companies) tested their VTOL on hydrogen fuel cell technology and the test flight netted a 500 percent increase en range over the battery electric power.

[@MichaelAllen-td1uu]

Two years ago gas shot up to $5 a gallon and EV’s were on fire.

[@bobwallace9753]

Global EV sales were 18% in 2023 and for this year EVs are up to 22% of total sales. There are about 170,000 ICEV fires per year in the US. About 465 per day. Just a bonus fun fact.

[@peteregan3862]

Public transport (rail) is better for large airport access for most people. eVTOL is far more complex than eSTOL - which just needs one motor and one prop.

[@buntnik]

If you don’t want an electric, don’t buy one. But you don’t need to disparage them. For a retiree in Florida who drives 40 miles a week they are a perfect solution.

[@peteregan3862]

eSTOL is cheaper, longer range, utilises general aviation regulation and infrastructure. 100 metre take-off/landing run on 200 metre runways can be found in most suburbs and city centres. eVTOL is noisy and has similar concerns to helicopters.

[@dscarty]

The abbreviation car, I believe, is from the word carriage. So what’s wrong with calling VTOLs flying carriages.

[@pistonburner6448]

I think energy-wise they're closer to catapults: they gather lots of energy from a point on the ground (where they *_must_* be at exactly) to then propel a load briefly over a 'short' distance to a pre-determined or 'aimed' target. Hence they could be called self-catapults.

[@rudderboost4188]

Vertical lift takes around 1hp for 7lbs, or 3/4KW. To get to kerosene power density we need to improve battery power density by around a factor of 70! United also championed supersonic flight recently? Your speaker also mentioned many other interested parties all of which want a public face of reducing their carbon footprint. I personally would like a job as Chief Sustainability Office for XXXX Airlines when I come back in the next life. Much as I would like this to work you are selling righteousness to Lawyers and accountants running corporations!

[@danharold3087]

eVTOLs are real and flying. Jetson one is a single person craft. ALL UP WEIGHT 86 kg FLIGHT TIME 20 min TOP SPEED 102 km/h. Joby has a larger tilt rotor craft for pilot and 4 passengers that the military is now testing.

[@bobwallace9753]

First, did you discount the inefficiency of a fueled engine? Second, do you understand that the first generation of VTOLs will be short hops with charging at both landings?

[@WAN2TREE4]

Is it really hard to figure out? Sell the cars cheaper and they will sell lol TIP: DECONTENT THEM and sales will bounce back lol

[@Cyrribrae]

Did this show change? Or the title? Confused

[@davidbeppler3032]

39:00 eVTOL becomes real when Tesla builds them. Until then, it will be a joke.

[@kevtheobald]

VTOL will struggle with legal and political issues. I can only imagine all the people saying "nor in my backyard" for VTOLs. I can see state leaders banning them to score political points with their citizens.

[@bobwallace9753]

Yep. We clearly do not allow fuel powered aircraft to take off and land vertically. There's no way we're going to allow much quieter, safer, and less expensive aircraft to take off and land using helo pads.

[@stickynorth]

They'll be regulated to existing small airfields. Landing in your yard? Hell no!

[@bobwallace9753]

@@stickynorth You don't have a helipad at your house? Time to think about upgrading....

[@nickayivor8432]

Please interview ScannerDanner 🙏 Why Techs are leaving the industry 👍 INTVITIVE,Autoline Network From Nick Ayivor from London England UK 🇬🇧 ⏰️ 21:32PM Good Evening