Experts slugfest: Our ridiculously early 2025 Oscar predictions, updated

Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng share their updated predictions for the 2025 Oscars now with 2024 halfway over. How many Cannes faves will make the Best Picture lineup? Is this finally Samuel L. Jackson and Amy Adams' year?
Email your questions to [e-mail].
Timestamps:
Intro and 2024 so far (0:00)
Best Picture (8:11)
Best Director (24:38)
Best Actor (38:27)
Best Actress (46:10)
Best Supporting Actor (56:45)
Best Supporting Actress (1:07:22)
Best Adapted Screenplay (1:12:30)
Best Original Screenplay (1:14:07)
Other thoughts (1:16:05)
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Gold Derby features celebrity videos plus expert predictions, tracking who will win Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, Tonys, Golden Globes and top reality TV shows 'The Amazing Race,' 'American Idol,' 'Dancing with the Stars,' 'Survivor,' 'The Voice' and more.

[@ReadingMartin]

We are so back

[@warrenjohns3194]

god i miss yall. please never stop talking about movies

[@Jamal3.87]

Ridley Scott and Gladiator 2? I’m always skeptical about Scott’s chances at the Oscars. The last real ground swell for Ridley Scott was for The Martian back in 2015 and he wasn’t nominated for Best Director.

[@HeelPower200]

Ridley Scott is still a strong and iconic name. It will be impossible to ignore. But it may end up being a flop.

[@joelanthonylim6792]

I'm down in delulu town with Chris for Gladiator II getting nominated and Scott not only getting nominated but winning an overdue Oscar lmao

[@mollypercocet1718]

Christopher’s picks are… interesting …

[@chrisjrosen]

How so?

[@Swiftieun1corn]

I watch dune part 2 last week. I saw it three times in theater. It’s so good. I hope Denis gets nominated.

[@leightonbate7516]

Amy Adams role strikes me based on the synopsis to be a true original like Emma last year with her overdue status roughlythe same as Leo's 9 yrs ago so this far out I have Amy finally winning but Jolie has never won a Leading Oscar so they could pull a Jessica Lange with her and Baptiste could follow in Halle Berry's footsteps but she isn't a name like Jolie and Adams,Apparently Blitz is more an ensemble film.

[@blondie666]

My takeaway from putting in my first batch of predictions was the tension between very high end festival/international options and populist moneymaking IPs/sequels, with a relative vacuum of more traditional contenders (especially if the likes of Blitz/Conclave can't meet expectations).

[@oldschoolabrahamhicks2742]

Yay! Missed Oscar talk

[@purekinema]

The Apprentice can't get distribution in part because a Trump supporter owns the production company and has a veto on distribution. They need to buy out the distribution company to distribute the movie. If it does come out this year, I think it's in.

[@DavidN369]

"Wicked" Part 1 is not this year’s WSS OR "Color Purple"; every adolescent girl and theatre queen will be there opening day, and thereafter. Predestined.

[@joaocosta5193]

after watching Challengers my first thought was 'joyce is gonna hate this'

[@user-bj7zh5vw3o]

This is that time of the year again!

[@dahomey2001]

I think y’all are underestimating Selena Emilia Perez will be Netflix Priority, not mentioning Danielle could go lead and Aunjanue’s part is small

[@SoulKnightKing]

I love that Joyce Aretha Franklin's Austin Butler and Bikeriders

[@fernaoveloso6988]

Why are we dodging Angelina Jolie… Like, she’s getting nominated

[@haroldandmod]

She’s not on gold derby yet for some reason

[@chrisjrosen]

@@haroldandmod She's not there because Maria doesn't have an official release date or distribution plan for this year just yet. Once it does, she'll be added and we'd likely add her to our picks.

[@serinamak]

30 minutes of previews!? It's only about 15 where I am in Canada

[@haroldandmod]

Why is Queer not on gold derby

[@chrisjrosen]

Queer doesn't yet have US distribution or a 2024 release date. Once it does, it will get added.

[@haroldandmod]

@@chrisjrosen I see..

[@friendlypup5650]

Happy Canada Day guys 🇨🇦

[@ssshar2176]

There is no way Joker 2 is going to repeat a billion dollars. The first time was just riding the coattails of the height of the Comic Book Movie train. If it makes 500 million that will be generous. Challengers will dominate the comedy/musical Golden Globe Categories and then die away. I just rewatched tick tick boom this past weekend. Andrew Garfield is still amazing!!

[@chrisjrosen]

tick, tick boom is really excellent. In fact, I'd argue it's maybe the best Netflix awards movie ever including The Irishman and Marriage Story (the only other two I'd probably seriously consider as top-tier masterpieces).

[@camporosso]

LOL you sound totally clueless

[@dalnim4294]

I'm going to screen shot this so I remember to come back to it. It will make way more than 500 million lol.

[@ssshar2176]

@@dalnim4294feel free. The movie is a musical sequel.

[@Jamal3.87]

Don’t worry about Horizon. I’m sure it’ll be on MAX by the end of August.

[@snowballthepro2926]

I'm betting that Sonic 3 is getting in for some Oscars. You laugh, but I ponder.

[@timgriffin3368]

Is Long Days Journey Into Night going to be Langes Second Blue Sky??? 😜 🤪 😜

[@chrisjrosen]

That would be hilarious and fitting.

[@IndieGoPop]

A Complete Unknown wrapped June 18th

[@fatihalbayrak1653]

fall of kinds of kindness. Right decision.

[@ElRataAlaada]

Joyce my fav😍

[@nafischowdhury7375]

lol at gladiator 2 being included in these predictions.

[@chrisjrosen]

I've been burned many times by Ridley, but hope springs eternal!

[@samtan4729]

Any hope for Ghost light?

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

How ironic you're writing off Jeremy Strong, after the movie premiered and he got a ton of praise and Oscar predictions. It seems you're convinced the movie is not coming out, but there have been reports that the deal is all but made and Tom Ortenberg's Briarcliff is about to become the distributor, even paying off Dan Snyder's 5 million so he gets off everyone's backs. And Washington Post also reported unofficially that Jeremy's agency has been directly reaching out to Snyder to resolve this... so you know sure as hell they're intending to mount an Oscar campaign for him.

[@chrisjrosen]

If The Apprentice gets distribution and a release date this year, I do think Strong would be its best chance for a nomination and as an avowed fan, I would love to see it. I'm just not sure if the movie is gonna come out this year.

[@IndieGoPop]

Dune Two was so much better on every level than part one

[@fes123456]

The Piano Lesson did not have great Broadway reviews and was not a well liked play so don’t trust Chris on that take

[@DavidN369]

Actually, the original "Piano Lesson" on Broadway was VERY well recieved, and the TV movie with Alfre Woodard is excellent. The most recent revival failed, due to theater economics, but it's coming back, at roughly the same time the movie drops. Never bet against August Wilson.

[@alejandromangieri1495]

Wicked is NOT being nominated for best picture

[@mattyrse]

Gladiator 2 and Wicked look so bad and no interesting at all. Hope they fade away

[@nafischowdhury7375]

same. both are gonna be disasters.

[@chrisjrosen]

@@nafischowdhury7375 what this video presupposes is... what if they're not? I don't think Wicked is a wild pick, particularly when this time last year everyone had The Color Purple in multiple spots and Wicked the musical >>> The Color Purple the musical. It could be bad and hack, but if it's not there's no reason it wouldn't make the final 10. I'm choosing to believe on July 3 that it'll be good. Reserve the right to change my opinion!

[@KaiOpaka]

Obviously you're not following all the theater kids (young and not) losing it over that Wicked trailer. It looks fantastic so I don't know what you're seeing. Then there's Ariana's fans. Both of the former are going to want their families and friends to go. It's gonna be massive. At minimum, plenty of below the line nominations. I'm expecting it to have a chance to crack the Best Picture lineup. I don't expect it to win unless it surprises given that it's a part one.

[@purekinema]

There isn't even a trailer for Gladiator 2, how does it "look bad" 😂

[@mattyrse]

@@purekinema Photos

[@ktom5262]

Challengers is rubbish. A boring movie about 3 unlikeable and uninteresting characters.

[@joaocosta5193]

bad take

[@DavidN369]

​@@joaocosta5193word.

[@rymhrnblkc]

everybody is underestimating nightbitch just because it has a weird plot. searchlight gave it the poor things release model and marielle heller has been able to get actors nominated before. i think it's happening.

[@chrisjrosen]

I love the Poor Things comp and we've seen Searchlight able to take a "weird" movie very far previously (see also The Shape of Water).

[@HeelPower200]

The title is just so bad. Best Actress goes to : "Night Bitch!!!" , followed by applause Couldn't they come up with some artsy title lol

[@stardustboy94]

She’s winning the Oscar unless they give it to some biopic actress.

[@gaymoviebuff1986]

BS Predictions