Five Reasons Why a Coup Hasn't Ousted Putin Yet

[@Gametheory101]

Another fun fact about Uriah: David recalled Uriah from the front lines and desperately tried to get him to spend the night with Bathsheba to cover for the pregnancy. He steadfastly refused out of solidarity for the rest of the unit. Ironically, that caused his death.

[@MausMasher54]

The coup won't be from within, it will come as a general revolt and mob actions....IMHO

[@fredwmckeown4771]

⁹ù

[@theslavbeing335]

It is an actual fact now that many of the generals were sen to the frontlines from the russian side and were killed. There are proofs and everything

[@livthorsen2671]

O

[@nestorportuguez8964]

Don't you worry Russian people, Putin is coming to surrender to Ukraine. So Russian people if you really want peace let your President Putin lose, but pay the consequence made by him. Then the peace seeker people of Russia will flourish here on earth..and not the bad ambitious man..

[@AlanTheBeast100]

I think a deeper dive into: - The Siloviki - The presidential security detail - The FSB Is needed to see how difficult a coup, no matter how well planned and secret, is very unlikely to work.

[@alessandrorossi1294]

Still not clear why there would be a coup at all. Russia’s been doing well since the invasion started.

[@johnsimpson5471]

the problem is how weak the west is!

[@David-wk6md]

No men in russia

[@Real_OSHA_Unsafety_Engineer]

And Russian specialty is counter intelligence and anti-dissent.

[@StevenCampbell1955]

One decent human with a gun will do it eventually. Like putting down a rabid dog.

[@genghiskhan5701]

Regarding the dead generals, Putin seemed to have a medieval concept that a popular and competent general scoring victory after victory would amass too much power and influence which would lead to him coveting the throne or becoming a strong political opponent. An example of this is Stalin's relationship with Zhukov, whom he can't purge since he was so popular despite having huge disagreement and Zhukov later had a hand in killing Beria, the head of the NKVD What good is victory if you would lose power after?

[@MrAvant123]

It is very clear that Russian government thinking even today is really still medieval in style. Which is why I thought back in Feb 'he will not really do it' I was thinking of 21st century politics and society.

[@ivanbulatkin5978]

Beria was a evil fuck who was hated by practically everyone in the high command and only managed to avoid death due to him running the NKDV

[@matthewbartley2746]

Id say medieval-esque but don't forget that Russia is quite literally a Mafia state in practicality operating under the disguise of a (exaggerated finger quotes) "democratic society" and truth be told.. for all intents and purposes so long as nobody rocks the boat, it works mostly fine for them. (Cheesy Russian accent) "Why break what works dah?" In truth it's difficult for us in the west to really understand Russia, her people, and how they function practically and internally. While we arguably have similar goals and values how we approach them is clearly different. I respect Putin, though I don't hold a particularly high opinion of the man I see him as many things. A Glue that's quite effective at holding a nation that's in many ways still broken from the collapse of their generations long civilization. A Dictator who uses whatever means he sees fit or justifiable to achieve his goals. And a stone cold gangster (in a cool kind of way) that's very different from our western leaders who amount to typically boring virtue signalling sacks of crap. Putins a ... do the thing kinda guy. A Man's man, an everyman. Someone you can relate to.. and he takes alot of effort to either maintain that persona.. or he just likes being the guy that young Russian kids can look up to as an example of strong leadership that actually sees the people he "leads" whether that's factually accurate or not.. the image and persona still exist. For a guy who's shorter than me he's larger than life in alot of aspects. And I can respect him for some self evident reasons. 1. hes a head of a nuclear power 2. He's absolutely NOT a bullshitter. 3. He believes what he says because he's willing to act on it even if he doesn't like it. I'm certain he's no desire for Nuclear engagement. But nonetheless he'll do, exactly andnwhatever he feels he must do.. to protect Russia and her people. Whether or not we agree is irrelevant and I can respect those three things. Especially considering the last several administration's we've had. Lies. Big talk. Very little walk and a metric fuck ton of virtue to be signaled about how we're so great and special and wonderful while we commit war crimes and exploit the nations we CLAIM to call friends. Wete basically pricks. And everyone hates us for it. But in some cases.. it's better to have a prick for a friend because he's the huge gorrika with the biggest stick, than it is to face off against King Kong with a BB Gun. So it's a complex thing and alot of people forget.. Russia doesn't operate within the context of a vacuum excluding all of history but the last 30 ish years. Russia has always been kind of like this in alot of ways. Just like the US and western society hasn't changed thematically for hundreds to thousands of years.. we've changed alot.. but our long term goals and centralized values are rooted in centuries to millenia old beliefs and traditions.. Same for Russia. At the end of the day it's up to them how to run their world as they see fit. It's up to us to maintain dialog and try fight for common understanding. We don't have to like them.. we don't have to be friends. But Putin has nearly 7000 Nuclear weapons. Crumbled and hobbled nation trying its corrupt and silly best to be the great power they once were a few short decades ago. As it may be... (in our western eyes) the capacity they ha e as a Nuclear threat and global resource player demands respect WORTHY of those positions that NOTHING we do for the foreseeable future is going to change. So at the very minimum.. enemies we should avoid being at all costs because the consequences are far more dire than anything mankind has faced before. Economic wars reshuffle the deck. Conventional wars redraw lines on maps. Nukes.. erase our species. That, should be Respected and hated enough to bring about the abolition and destruction of these stockpiles that do kot provide a deterrent. A handful of Nukes can provide a deterrent for a nation like the US or Russia. But THOUSANDS.. is a liability no matter how you try to slice it.

[@genericscout5408]

@@matthewbartley2746 Russia's working nuclear weapons might be in the single digits. They also need the means to deploy them successfully which it very well may not be able to.

[@klowen7778]

"Death solves all problems... no man, no problem." - Joseph Stalin

[@dzengrinder]

Russian here. I think that you've got a couple of points wrong here, I'll do my best to try and explain myself: 1. Putin's popularity - my opinion is that, despite all the seemingly obvious geopolitical goals, the main goal of this war was securing public opinion, since it was obviously in decline after so called "Crimean consensus" (I urge everyone, who reads this, to google this particular thing, it'll help you understand the situation way better) stopped boosting his approval within the society. They made a couple of really unpopular decisions lately - pension reform and overall covid measures. Not all the people connect these two to putin, but a lot of people are very upset. The polls that you've used are hardly accurate, since they were mostly made by pro-government poll service (other ones got, more or less, yeeted in the last 1-2 years). If you look at other metrics, like, for example, the percentage of people that actually follow the situation closely - it's a relatively small number. Most people don't really care about war\putin\politics whatsoever, which is also a catastrophe. 2. Coordination of coup part is very much on point 3. Oligarchs loyalty - oligarchs aren't really a political factor, and they haven't been since second half of 2000s, for the most part. Calling them loyal hardly tells the story, because they're only loyal to their own interests (You can look up a chap, who's name is Oleg Deripaska, who's one of the more notable oligarchs, and go through his rhethoric - it's hardly pro-anything, besides saving his own ass). And a lot of them got fucked over by the war and sanctions, so it's quite an interesting situation. 4. The Aid part is more or less on point in my opinion, aside from one thing - it only applies, if there won't be any sides willing to provide any guarantees to the people, who are looking at a coup as an option. It's actually a pretty hard and heated topic at the moment. 5. Purges part is more or less okay, but I'll make a big disclaimer here - A large portion of the information, that the author provided is speculatory, we only have reports from foreign intelligence agencies and some rumors to go about right now, so take it with a grain of salt.

[@arckanumsavage2822]

Ты не русский. Либо молчи, либо уезжай, пока даём возможность.

[@samuelarcher9236]

Your English language skill is very good.

[@thefarmking9924]

thanks for the information

[@olivergilpin]

Thanks for sharing, loved reading it

[@Tyrell_Corp2019]

The real issue? Russians in general are submissive. They just love their strong daddy telling them what to do. They always have.

[@rileydowns6180]

Interesting re-watching this video after the Wagner mutiny. Some of the exact things you said did happen. During the organization phase, someone leaked the plan to Moscow like you said at 4:05. This forced Prigozhin to accelerate his plan, causing it to fail, like you said at 12:25. Of course, Prigozhin wasn't planning to depose Putin, only Sergei Shoygu, but the same principles apply.

[@johnwatson984]

As i comment this right now, there is a military coup happening in Russia. This vid adds excellent context to ahat is going on right now. Slava Ukraine.

[@lucianoosorio5942]

“It takes a Russian to take down a Russian” Catherine the Great

[@lucianoosorio5942]

@T B she was but then she ditched the German culture and embraced the Russian language and culture. She married Peter iii of Russia.

[@MrNebelschatten]

Well Germans proved that her statement wasn't correct. First kicking Russia out of the first World War and second by giving them Communism. Third the Second World war, which Russia could have not survived without western help.

[@youtubeoppressivecensorshi8047]

No we could have done no fly zone at the start deterring Russia from invading Ukraine. If Russia invaded his military would be destroyed . Nuclear weapons being used will be unlikely as long as we don’t threaten government it self

[@CollectiveWesterner]

@@lucianoosorio5942 Talk about taking a wrong turn in life. 📉

[@lucianoosorio5942]

@@CollectiveWesterner what are you talking about? That’s off topic

[@andysm1964]

Another reason that we may hate to admit of Putin being (not) removed, there maybe someone even worse that replaces Putin.

[@TheSportsPROgram]

Exactly ....I'm sure he is surrounded by a bunch of power hungry evil psychopaths

[@michaeldy3157]

Hard to imagine , he stole most of russias wealth.

[@johnjeffswan1291]

I am a gambling man. I will take that chance. Heads 50- Tailes 50 flip.

[@stanleyhood7354]

@@TheSportsPROgram Good point.

[@rogerpennel1798]

Spin the wheel anyways. Russia is sitting on a demographic time bomb. The majority of their population is 35+ years old and aging. Their population below 35 is shrinking fast. That's why Russia is trying to draft 45-50 year old men/women. However, if they do that their infrastructure, industry, and economy will collapse. Putin launched this war because he knows he won't be able to in the near future. He expected to be able to dominate 291 Eastern Europeans and reconstitute the Soviet Block without a fight and reverse his demographic collapse but he was wrong.

[@wolfgang3076]

The Uriah Hittite example reminded me of Joseph Stalin sending his oldest son, Yakov, an artillery officer and disliked by his Father, to the German front in WW2 so he would likely be killed. Ironically, he was captured instead by the German forces, but Stalin later refused to accept him in prisoner-of-war swap, so he died in captivity..

[@giantsashavor7809]

it wouldve hurt the army's morale significantly if he accepted it. how many soviets died to capture that field marshal alive, only for hihm to be swapped for a lieutenant solely because he was stalin's son

[@piercemaciain4847]

Honestly I’m just commenting as I think it helps with the algorithm. I will say that I have enjoyed all of the Ukrainian War content you have produced…waiting for more new content has led me to watching your more academic and theoretical videos as well which are top notch.

[@davidjacobs8558]

Very Simple. It's usually not the Assassin who gets the power afterward, but the person who take care of the chaos after that assassination gets the power. So everyone is waiting for someone else to do the dirty deed.

[@davidjacobs8558]

@potato player Even Jesus was executed

[@michaelsandy2869]

@potato player So was Stalin, "God" in Russia, until he was dead, and then everybody was quite happy to blame pretty much everything bad on Stalin.

[@gofar5185]

most amusing comment re "coups"...

[@gofar5185]

@@michaelsandy2869 mutilating stalin name is the works of west social medias and internal power struggles...

[@logansrun6478]

@@davidjacobs8558 Absolutely!

[@zxbn4566]

"... deputy chief of staff Vyacheslav Volodin took to the stage to tell international analysts and Russia-watchers that "there is no Russia today if there is no Putin." That was in 2014, and it is as true today as it was then. Without a tough and popular figure like Putin at the top, Russia is not an especially stable or unified a nation. The Russian Federation consists of 85 Oblasts, Krais, Okrugs and federal cities, each with its own parliament, head and constitutional court; a degree of self government is deeply entrenched. Many of those, particularly towards the east, have non-Slav electoral majorities. Moscow, the military and the oligarchs are parasitic on the resource-rich regions, where a lot of people live in astonishingly poor conditions for a country that imagines it is a global superpower. During the period while Medvedev was president, Putin, and those around him, could see things could fall apart without him at the helm. So basically there is a level of awareness that without a hard-case authoritarian at the helm, Russia could dissolve into its constituent self-governing entities, since the resource-rich ones know they would be economically better off that way, never mind the politics. Serfdom in Russia was only abandoned in 1861, and much of the non-elite population are still guided by a very simple but strong sense of nationalism and patriarchalism, aided and abetted by the Russian Orthodox church, which is precisely why Putin is such a supporter of it. In a sense, that two-way relationship between lumpenproletariat and patriarchal despot is the main thing that is holding the country together.

[@BigHenFor]

At last, a commenter who understands something about politics in the Russian political and historical context. You need lots of tasty fish to herd cats, and enough power to ensure you can remove those who won't be herded. Putin early in his career was astute enough to form informal and formal coalitions with the right people so that he could extend his personal power. No ruler rules alone, and in sending enough fish to the regional stakeholders around the country, and being quick enough to cull irredeemable discontents, in the context of an external power being unwilling, or unable to bankroll his removal, Putin will not be removed. The downside is that such a ruler needs reliable information and loyal subordinates to stay secure, but as the system is based on corruption, opportunist cats will sneak under cover to raid the larder. The Pandemic was perfect cover. Not only were the FSB corrupt, but the military was too. So, Putin was given bad information, and the initial Ukraine assault was a, disaster. Those responsible went to prison, or to the Ukraine front lines. The generals coming home in body bags from were probably responsible for the early military procurement, maintenance, and personnel failings. So, that was a cull of irredeemables. So, Putin stays until he's had enough, or dies.

[@UtDanik]

Если бы кто-то и захотел отсоединиться то это были бы какие-то определенные этнические группы или национальности и в итоге из 80+ областей только 13 смогут с большой вероятностью отсоединиться (потому что там более 50% не русской национальности) но часть таких областей окружены другими областями с русским населением так что это просто не выгодно для них. Тогда единственный способ это разделить самих русских что не представляется возможным.

[@UtDanik]

Тем более у русского народа около 2000 лет был свой царь/вождь так что это не удивительно что народ не захочет менять власть как перчатки тем более хороших претендентов не найти.

[@alex_zetsu]

Another problem is group of oligarchs that perform a successful coup cannot expect to enjoy the spoils of a pre-war Russia. Part of it is needing to hold an election to get critical aid needed to stabilize the economy as you mentioned. So there is a probability of losing their lives in a coup and a high probability of not getting to enjoy any spoils. Another is that post-war Russia is going to be less secure and wealthy than pre-war Russia. NATO's expansion is a sunk cost, after Putin started the war, it drained enough out of Russia's economy that countries no longer fear joining NATO. That security problem used to be an opportunity cost of war, now it's sunk, it's just a cost of exiting. Many of the foreign investment simply isn't going to come back because of Russia's damaged reputation, and this doubly applies if the coup plotters don't hold an election so they can keep the spoils. The West's distrust of Russia in the 2010s is in hindsight justified, but it actually makes it harder for a post-war Russia to return to status quo antebellum, so from the point of the people that can initiate a coup, there isn't much incentive to do so.

[@gdwnet]

they can but not for a few years. A coup today still means months of sanctions and negotiations.

[@katiemcdavid4124]

Alex:. The spoils you speak of should go to the people & country not the administration. WWJD???????????????????????????

[@isay207]

But do Russian parents want to see their young sons being sent to slaughter that should be an incentives the rest of the world doesn't approve of Putin

[@rogerpennel1798]

Do not underestimate the willingness of the world to legitimize any successor regime in return for the security of Russia's nuclear weapons. In short, the world tolerated the rise of Putin and the oligarchs because they guaranteed the custody of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons. This time around custody should take a back seat to disarmament. Do not transfer the risk, eliminate it!

[@simonkelly9013]

Wait till Ukrainian people revolt and rebels against Jewish president back by USA -NATO Jewish lobby in a few months time!!

[@buntik1687]

Most of the Russian people understand that NATO expansion would be a horrible thing for Russia’s power, influence and security. • Putin isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

[@erichguenther4486]

Most of the Russian people? You mean the far right Nationalists think that. My view is most of the Russians could care less about NATO and it's expansion. It's only the Russian ruling mafia and those connected with it that see a danger to their skim operations and other embezzlement schemes from the state, and of course the street thug level nationalists.

[@charmyzard]

Finally someone says this!

[@jalopyjp]

Attacking neighbors is a great way to give every border country an excellent reason to join NATO. And they are right in doing so when they have a belligerent bully next door.

[@carlorepetto8983]

Another Genius Analysis, William. Thank you so much!!!!

[@meta4101]

Putin is entrenched like Stalin once was. He has his fingers in everything and there is no one who would dare trying to replace him. He is the irreplaceable man in Russia.

[@123456qwful]

It also helps that he establish himself as the face of russia, and with how long he been ar the head nobody in the country know what it would like without him, after all he was in power when russia economy rise before the war, and many believe he was directly responsible for the up tick in their lives so it hard fr many none radical Russia to deposit him

[@user_222]

Hahaha! It means sir no one could ever replace him.🤔

[@BoleDaPole]

He's also made those around him very rich and powerful.

[@BoleDaPole]

Yup, Putin is very loved in the russian military. They won't support some western cuck. Take putin out and they'll find someone 10x worse.

[@user_222]

@@BoleDaPole Now I understand why he is irreplaceable.

[@major3041]

I was thinking of a similar idea as the Uriah Hittite strategy when the news about commanders and generals being killed in the front lines came out during the first phase of the Ukraine invasion. It felt weird that they would just let generals and commanders die easily. I understand too that there may be problems in terms of logistics and equipment that causes generals to go into the frontlines but idk, something seemed weird

[@rodmead4324]

Most Russian soldiers don't listen to their officers due to laziness so Russia sends Generals to the frontline to make sure they do the hard work. Therefore, they find themselves in the crosshairs also.

[@davidjennings2179]

@@rodmead4324 due to laziness? What do you have to back up that claim?

[@LoneLostRanger]

@@rodmead4324 not laziness, but low fighting morale

[@rodmead4324]

@@davidjennings2179 Reports from CNN, Sky, BBC, DW (Germany), ABC (Australia), Reuters... Just of the top of my head. Unless ALL the reporters I see that are in Ukraine are lieing to us. Ohh, and Russian soldiers saying this back to their wife's/ girlfriends in intercepted calls and emails

[@rodmead4324]

@@LoneLostRanger Agreed, although look up why lots of their military vehicles are breaking down. Little to no maintenance due to not working on them. An army that has their vehicles humming and maintained, is not lazy

[@michaelbraithwaite5875]

His confidence in opinion polls seeming to show Putin's popularity is surprising. He never explains how "preference falsification" (i.e. being scared stiff of a tyrant) was eliminated or even who did the elimination.

[@trustmeimcool]

He did in another video

[@michaelbraithwaite5875]

@@trustmeimcool Thanks, I'll have a look.

[@Petrico94]

The people voting seem to say Putin is popular. It doesn't matter if people abstain from the vote, that's the point of the tyranny. Those numbers could be falsified in which case they're a fraction lower than what Russia reports but there's still ambiguity how many people really want to stir things up just to remove Putin. Russia certainly has an outward appearance of being against the West and pro Putin so they can run with that even as a vocal minority of what most Russians think to themselves, it's probably not at the point where they completely fabricate their own support.

[@danascully6670]

He raised his rating due to a special operation in Ukraine. We have been waiting 8 years for this action on his part. And he's not a tyrant at all. Compared to Stalin, he is just an angel. All the time he wants to negotiate and be friends with everyone, even where more rigidity is needed.

[@michaelbraithwaite5875]

@@danascully6670 You're seriously describing what he's doing in Ukraine as a "special operation", when whole cities are being laid waste and there are over 6 million refugees? And someone who bans the principal political opposition and imprisons its leader after trying to murder him is not a tyrant? Imagine if Boris Johnson banned the Labour Party and tried to poison Keir Starmer? Why have you been waiting 8 years for Russia to recolonize Ukraine, which is pure imperialism? You're either joking or deluded or fascist like Putin.

[@antyspi4466]

Point 6) Complicity and support - In the West, it is always believed that this war is Putin´s idea and of his making alone. This is not the case. Not only Putin, but also his confidantes in government have claimed Ukraine´s envisioned accession to NATO as unacceptable, a red line and an existential threat for years. Statements pointing into the same direction came from other government officials and legislators. In essence, the logic reasoning for starting the war is seemingly shared throughout the political and military elite. Furthermore, the decision to recognize the independence of the Donbas republics stood on the grounds of an offical act of the Russian Duma, with Putin signing it after a public session of the National Security council, where all members spoke in favour of it. The baseline is, that by these actions, the war became a collective decision, the members of the broader leadership publicly supported it, hence they can´t backtrack and distance themselves from the war. So there is noone in a position of power left who could genuinly justify a coup with oppostion to the war. Moreover, there is a good chance that a lot of lawmakers and members of the security apparatus genuinly believe in the necessity of the war, thereby massively shrinking the pool of possible supporters.

[@LjubomirLjubojevic]

I would add that even pro-Western Dimitry Medvedev is exceptionally hawkish and after following Russian affairs closely for 11 years I was shocked he is so aggressive. It is MOST DEFINITIVE that majority of elites in Russian are hawkish, and I would argue that Russian population has for 8 years heard of daily attacked on Russian-speaking population in Donbass and is out for blood against the Nazis. Azov is only one of many Nazi groupings and numerous TV shows and media article including on national media are horribly chauvinistic against Russians (children in Ukranian school named cookies "Blood of Muscovite children", Muscovite = Russians). So even if you falsely believe Putin is not greatly liked in Russia, Russians are greatly FOR this war, considering it necessary. I have seen videos of pro-West media interviewing Russian youth and most responses were "finally, we waited too much" and "we will crush them".

[@UtDanik]

@@LjubomirLjubojevic как русский заяляю что ваше американское/европейское оружее очень хорошо пойдет на металлолом))) И да вы правы по поводу настроя в стране многие ЗА эту спецоперацию а те кто был против либо уехали из страны либо отправились в так называемую kutuzku (тюрьма, обезьянник, решетка и т. д.) после митингов в первые дни. Тем более это все логично ведь по одной из статей ООН можно спокойно отделятся от страны при САМООПРЕДЕЛЕНИИ НАЦИИ ДНР, ЛНР и Крым это и есть такие примеры, но Украинскому начальству было безразлично на это правило объясняя это все тем что это злые замыслы России. А сама спецоперация началась как говорилось выше после признания независимости Россией ЛНР и ДНР и подписания с ними дружественного договора о взаимопомощи который тоже указывает на одну из статей о том что другое государство может оказывать военную поддержку другому ОБОРОНЯЮЩЕМУСЯ государству что и сделала Россия.

[@petrorlov2599]

@@UtDanik Всем странам глубоко плевать на право народов на самоопределение, когда ситуация к этому располагает. Та же Чечня в нашем случае. Глупо считать, что мы кого-то защищаем на Украине, государство просто реализует свои геополитические интересы, а публике это надо как-то продать.

[@aking9999]

I think that you have also forgotten "the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia " they were instrumental in getting their sons back from Afghanistan. based on the fact that Putin has lost more army personel in the Ukraine war of four months, than in the total of war years in Afghanistan . I think that there will be a groundswell of discontent once the true figures of dead and injured are fully displayed.

[@rosisimmer5269]

The only way you can assess the quality of such a poll is if you keep track of the number of persons who refused to participate in it. If 80% of the people refused to participate then the 80% of the 20% is what you’re seeing. If that information is available it should be included in your program. If that information is not available you really can’t say that the numbers are at all credible.

[@puraLusa]

Those poles have zero information. They were made by russian poling companies, which means companies connected directly or indirectly to putins party. Also, people in russia tend answer whatever they need to survive. At least to me they have zero reality in them.

[@tdb19872]

Yeah, pollsters have no idea how to conduct polls and like thw western propaganda machine wouldn't be all over this if he didn't actually have massive support...

[@puraLusa]

@@tdb19872 no but if someone phones u and tells u it's from an company know to be conected to a gangster and asks u if u like said gansgster u will answer "love him" as u look at ur familly knowing a wrong answer would probably get them all into trouble. That's a consequence of authoritarian or totalitarian sistems of governance.

[@puraLusa]

@potato player which part of the west? I've compared with my country and so far strawberry, bread and sugar were more expensive in russia. Also, the average salary in my country is higher (we have a bunch of russian imigrants like doctors because of the salary and career). So which one?

[@janestones323]

Russia is as united as never! Go eat the bones now!

[@zendengade4170]

It took a million casualties during wwi before Russia depose their incompetent Tsar and fell into disunity, we are nowhere near that yet.

[@pocarski]

It wasn't because of the casualties, it was because stupid amounts of money were sunk into the war, and the people had nothing to eat. For the first two years the war was actually very popular, because there was a genuine justification of "we must protect our orthodox friends in Serbia". Heck, one of the reasons Rasputin was killed was for his anti-war views. The war caused a revolt not because it was going badly, but because it was way too expensive and has gone on for too long. The most efficient way to piss off your entire country is to dock everyone's pay and make everything cost more.

[@rullangaar]

The revolutionary opposition was better organized then Navalny, that’s for sure. They almost succeeded in 1905.

[@IAmTheAce5]

I like how close you are getting to describing ’selectorate theory’ and how it affects political decision making

[@billsamuls7620]

ALL S SCARED

[@matthewbartley2746]

It is a wildly fascinating perspective/subject isn't it? As well, Russia itself is actually, along with former Soviet non-"westernized" societies deeply fascinating. I dont believe I'll ever really understand say, middle eastern society and cultures well enough to form a solid grasp of them, and the same with Pan-Asian culture and societies (just different enough from my perspective understanding that getting the full picture is losing alot in translation) but.. eastern orthodox post soviet Russia and Slavic peoples.. They're close enough to my own western culture to have many overlaps of common ground. Which is unfortunate that our societies don't interact better with eachother. We have more in common than we have opposed. But Geopolitics is a game for those who wish to play chess and checkers with the lives of hundreds of millions and billions of human beings. The west.. we.. us. Have a fundamental toxin within our societies and civilization. This Liberal World Order post WW2 has bread a Globalist cabal put of the old empires and the greed for power and control isn't something that's just set down. The prosperity we take for granted now was hard won by the blood of millions and the sweat of tens to hundreds of millions. That significance is swept under the rug for politic. And we face grave danger as a result of the Globalist elites like the WEF, Rothschilds central bank, and a myriad of other international economic and strategic organizations. I strongly believe that NATO is equally a relic of the cold war. And since Russia, is not the Communist USSR.. that is dead and gone and unlikely to come back. Communism is dying it's last horrified gasps of torture and cruelty playing out in the CCP.. but Russia is a new nation born from the ashes of a dead and failed giant. And hallelujah for that. But in response we should have done something that would have immeasurably changed the future we call our present now for the better. We should have embraced the new Russia as a hopeful new friend. Given them the space to find themselves. And been ready to welcome a fledgling nation. That would have been the likely and practical course of action.. but the Globalist cabal already long since had its roots sunken deep into the fortress of economic and industry succes that is the West. And it's going to be hell to cut that cancer out. Likely, our former soviet enemies, now out post cold war cousins and fellow humans on the other side of this lonely blue marble.. see us as the same.sick and twisted perversion of excess and greed they saw back when they were Red and pushing us away. The cold war is gone in every way but the hearts and minds of those who lived it. I dont remember it. I was too young. Born in 1988. So all I've ever known is that Russia.. used tk be the seat of power for a globe scanning empire of communist oppression.. and now, they're something closer to what we are. And I see how we will stop at nothing tk protect our position at the head of the economic and strategic pyramid called global politics. Shame. Imagine what we could accomplish if we stopped seeing eachother as a threat and saw eachother instead as a resource that can be called upon.

[@ondrejtyc7578]

I am here after Prigožin's wild ride on the 23rd of June 2023 😀

[@marttub]

Clearly, Prigozhin hasn't seen this video yet, as he rolls right into Rostov On Don😅

[@Psychx_]

In many rural parts of Russia, people live like 60-70 years ago and the only access to news is government TV. There are many areas that do not have access to the internet either and where education is pretty bad. There is also a strong sense of nationalism throughout the country. So yes, I absolutely believe Putin's approval ratings.

[@mdabdullah4379]

In America too, there are remote and rural areas where hillbillies live.. They live primitive life without any modernisation.. Very little access to outside world... They believe the world revolves around them and everything their government says is true..

[@bartoszbaranowski604]

@@mdabdullah4379 "But USA".... LMAO.

[@borisfrog3404]

What are you talking about? There are more internet users in Russia than in UK and France combined. Also, the internet usage in Russia is higher than in the US considering the population of the countries.

[@bartoszbaranowski604]

@@borisfrog3404 Some even get paid to spread Russian BS and disinformation.

[@Alpanzai]

Are you from Russia? Maybe you lived in Russia? From what sources you got " in many rural parts of Russia people live like 60-70 years ago." I lived in most poor region of Russia republic of Dagestan in rural parts of its region in a small village and we have mobile/stacionary internet, every family have at least one car, air condition systems(its warm region), fridges and other devices. Reading your comment is so laughauble when i compare it to my own experience 2-3 yers ago of my living in most poor rural Russian region. Stop listening propaganda shit from tv if you really want to know truth.

[@BobiMcBob]

if you take away the "evil" man of power from his chair theres a big chance a worse man is gonna replace

[@fawziekefli2273]

You'd think that the #1 reason would be that coups are illegal.

[@AceCmbatguy25]

So is invading a neighbouring country 🙃

[@UtDanik]

@@AceCmbatguy25 да только россия "вторглась" в украину для защиты Донбасса по 51 статье ООН о взаимопомощи. Так что все легально. 🤡🤡🤡

[@394pjo]

Looking forward to your update next year for this "Six Hundred and Thirty Seven Reasons why a Coup hasn't ousted Putin yet" Your video editing is great btw.

[@josephwalsh7546]

Why is it assumed that replacing Putin would be a good thing ? A coup after a military failure might result in a replacement far more hard line and belligerent.

[@RazorKane22]

The military situation on the ground does NOT indicate that Russia is losing. Ukrainian soldiers are being slaughtered in donbass

[@keithrosenberg5486]

At least two of the several attempts to kill Hitler failed due to random chance bad luck. In 1943 a bomb was put aboard Hitler's plane and timed to detonate in flight. The fuse triggered OK, but failed to detonate because it was too cold. A week later another attempt failed. More than a year later the bomb at Hitler's headquarters 20 July 1944 detonated with him in the room. But the bomb had been inadvertently moved away from the original location and behind a substantial table leg. Putin cannot be aware of everything. Nor can the few trusted advisors he appears to have. If someone high up in the security apparatus who is watching others uses his information gathering power to find co-conspirators something might well be done. Most likely though will be some event that suddenly causes a massive and sudden change in public support for the regime.

[@LowejaDogs]

I agree. It would be people power that could do it. The people that surround Putin can't trust each other with thoughts of a coup so what is really left?. Same as some tried to do to Hitler, accept succeed, the first time and with a lot of luck, dont get caught. Its inconceivable for us westerners to think like a person born and raised in such a way of life as in Russia, but they are there, others born a generation later, not so much. Its the punishment now that has closed their mouths. A very scary way of life. Whatever happens in Ukraine, the world knows he is never to be trusted with any of what he says. I am a Westerner and just cant fathom how one man can put himself so far above others that everyone below is fearful of him. I know that everyone is afraid of consequences if they say or do anything in Russia but geez, this man is pathetic. Yes a psycho, egotistical etc man but pathetic. I say this because take away his oligarhs etc and hed be a pathetic looser.

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

you're forgetting that Hitler was losing the war at that point. Putin is winning.

[@ekszentrik]

6th reason: the war is legitimately going better than expected. Yes, plan A was not achieved, but they are still pushing ahead with their goals. You can't be naive about the cost of SYMMETRICAL war. After everything is said and done, Putin will have exchanged

[@pocarski]

if failing to cross the same river three times in a row counts as "better than expected" then I'm scared to consider what they actually expected to happen

[@ekszentrik]

@@pocarski If a minor tactical blunder like that is in your eyes significant enough to kill everything I pointed out, then I guess Cannae must have stopped Rome in its tracks.

[@davidguilbertrozenman5025]

A dictator can't survive a defeat in war for a long time and sooner or later will lose his power. Galtieri and his Junta became popular after invading the Falklands or Malvinas Islands, but soon after losing the war with UK they were removed. However it doesn't mean the next person to get the power will be democratic, it may well be another dictator. He may be better or, God forbid, may be worse.

[@sockpuppet1033]

Take a shot every time he says "poot-in"

[@K1Ku]

You asked for a comment "if you were missing a point", so here is a point: This is a widely spread misconception that Mosaddegh was "a democratically elected Prime Minister"; in fact no PM was ever so "elected", they were - according to the Constitution of the country - APPOINTED by The Shah. Mosaddegh was a megalomaniac who demanded to have more and more power, including the War Ministry. Mosaddegh, a grandson of Naseraddin Shah Ghajar despised the Pahlavis, who superseded the Ghajar dynasty, which he actually belonged to. His "name" was infact a "title" given to him by the Ghajar king, as "Mosaddegh-al-Saltaneh" literally meaning "Approver of Monarchy". With respect.

[@logansrun6478]

Very interesting sir. 👍🏼

[@neilnelson7603]

It has already been highlighted in all sources including western sources that he was a democratically elected Prime Minister. It is just something westerners don't like to admit because they're the reason for the current rise of Islamic regime in Iran.

[@sketchtwenty2]

Another factor may be the Russian leadership and citizens believed, like we all did, that Putin would know how to win a war and the Russian military how to fight it. Give them some time to work from "who knew?" to "what's ya gonna do? " Then will see what's what.

[@Real_OSHA_Unsafety_Engineer]

I think Russia is built upon Nationalism of the Great Patriotic War, which had echoing impact until today. The deaths and sacrifice of their grandparents in the war which Putin valued is policies reflected the majority in Russia. Remember Putin is a generation after WW2, He lived during the war as a child, knew the cold war very well, and lived in the disintegration of USSR, we can safely assume that he knows those things. He knows that having an entire different culture embedded in a country causes problems (one main cause of USSR collapse) as these creates insurgencies that weaken the USSR, which is why I think Putin is reclaiming what is culturally theirs, unlike what is the west propagating as if Putin = Hitler, where Putin is somehow looking for Lebensraum. He is more similar to Otto von Bismarck enforcing the country through Blood and Iron.

[@billdavies6463]

@@Real_OSHA_Unsafety_Engineer Putin was born in 1952, the Great Patriotic War ended in 1945. Certainly, he suffered hardship during the Cold War.

[@Real_OSHA_Unsafety_Engineer]

@@billdavies6463 the effect of stories from experiences of his parents affect his character -Hillary Clinton, in an Interview when she visited the monument in St.Petersburg. Sorry i dont know that he is in 52 i thought 42.

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

but Russia is winning the war so I'm not sure why you think that's a point against him.

[@joyhouse4625]

Only thing against putin is his age + failed invasion of Ukrainian. Maybe year's before a take over happens. Time ⏲️ is never on the sided of a dictatorship? I give him 5 year's .

[@alessandrobenvenuti6551]

The only thing I really have to point out is the military high officers: It’s very interesting to think about losing generals in scores by purpose. I think it may have happened in a few cases, but I still believe that they are falling like flies because of poor communications and bad middle management of the operations, so that they have to get into firing range to fix the mess that is now the Russian offensive. This recklessness can be found in their unsupported and head butting assaults. They lost 3 tactical battle groups trying to cross 3 times the same river point they attempted to bridge. It’s madness, it can’t be on purpose as well. I think your interpretation is interesting and likely, but we should keep in mind also the broader context of this.

[@MomchilNikolovPhoto]

A couple of notes here, on the high-level military officers: - We've been hearing about generals being killed, generals being sacked, officers being put under house arrest, others having strokes/heart attacks etc. Many of those said generals later on miraculously turn up in high level official meetings, parades, foreign visits, tv shows etc. So clearly, this is being exaggerated to a great degree. I am not saying that we have another case of "Ghost of Kiev" here - where Ukraine itself admitted that the whole thing was an outright lie, I am sure that there are high-level military officer losses on the Russian side, but they are not as astronomical as what we're being presented with. - Please remember that Russian generals lead from the front. They always have and they still do. Unlike their western counterparts, who tend to stay in air-conditioned offices hundreds of kilometres from the front lines. So yes, it is only natural for some of them to be lost, we should not be surprised about this, it is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

[@alessandrobenvenuti6551]

@@MomchilNikolovPhoto it’s also very strange to assume 4D chess even this time, but what you say it’s right. Usually the most simple solution is the most likely, but convoluted realities are possible and fascinating to explore. What we have for most is speculation, but it could be both things

[@evilemuempire9550]

@@MomchilNikolovPhoto Just a note on your seeming condescension for western officers, they are positioned far away because loosing the person in charge of everything tends to paralyze a unit and sow large amounts of confusion. They are also quite valuable resources, as it’s generally agreed a general is the product of at least a 20 year career.

[@sirnoobalot2632]

Why has Denmark not done this? The primeminister has brokken the constitution and are not looking as if she is getting punishment for it Bc she has freed her self.

[@just4guitar558]

Polls of a stifled people will NEVER reflect the actual opinion of the public. If you count everybody who refrains as opposition….. YOUR #’s would literally mean nothing.

[@MidanMagistrate]

Like when Russia invaded Crimea and purged the Tatars, with a year or so a couple hundred thousand Russians moved to Crimea, thus skewing the actual opinion of Crimeans on Russia

[@Pikkabuu]

There are ways to get proper results even in such cases. This channel did a great video about polling in Russia.

[@hueylongadmirer55]

How are Russians "stifled"? Russia is a free country with freedom of speech and free elections.

[@just4guitar558]

@@hueylongadmirer55 LMMFAO

[@burnttaco2869]

The best bet they honestly have is when he goes under for the rumored surgery he’s supposed to have

[@adrianthoroughgood1191]

Yes, this video explains why powerful people who might take over are unlikely to risk it. But if someone on his medical team believes that what Putin is doing is so bad that they are willing to risk death to stop it then they could take him out.

[@subhankarbaral9236]

@@adrianthoroughgood1191 Even the doctor he hired is a Putin loyalist. So, why he will think to take him out.

[@Emanon...]

Egypt and Pakistan are perfect recent examples of how real politik and US interests are the main drivers of supporting a coup, not the establishment of a democratic government. Democracies after all have a nasty habit of doing what's best for their people instead of acquiescence to their benefactors.

[@georgebugeja1855]

The end is much near than one may think.

[@Eddie33154]

Clear and cogent analysis. Very reasonable thought process William. Thank you. The day is coming when all wars will cease. When weapons are recycled for agriculture. When warfare is no longer taught. The Prince of Peace is the only one who can make this happen.

[@johnhanek167]

2 thumbs up! Excellent narration and graphics. I learned a lot in 13 minutes!

[@helmutzollner5496]

Great analysis. Thank you.

[@lokomike2911]

Might be one happening right now with Wagner headed to Moscow.

[@isosnitsky]

Hi Will! I'm sorry to say that but most of the video just isn't relevant. It sounds reasonable and well connected, but in reality it just isn't so. I wish I could point you to Milov's hour long videos on why a coup isn't possible, but they're all in Russian as well. In short: even if key figures wanted to organize a coup, there are a couple of problems: 1) How do you communicate? Even two of these kinds of people meeting would set off all sorts of alarms in FSB, and each of them has at least a squad of FSB people following them around. 2) The point you brought in your video: How could they trust each other? Putin sets the example himself: he ignores law, does not follow any agreements or contracts, publicly says one thing and does another. 3) What will happen to them afterwards? Any regime change will see them in court (at best) and then in prison, since people that can't be blackmailed won't be let near Putin in a 15-mile radius and won't be let in power even on the lowest regional positions 4) How do you go about carrying out a coup? Putin has FSO - his own personal army that is tasked with a single task of protecting Putin and Putin alone. FSB, Army, Rosgvardia, police, all sorts of government entities might see their funding cut to 0, all but FSO. The other way is cutting his communications - that falls under Federal Communication Service. That's a part of FSO. Add to it that nobody but FSO know where Putin is actually located, so cutting just one location off even physically won't do it since he just isn't there. Any talk about a coup in Russia without mentioning Kochnev - the FSO director - could be disregarded as not serious.

[@sands7779]

From the history of the Roman emperors, pay your military well and your personal guard even better and bread and circuses for the people.

[@disanKh]

Attack in Kyiv isn't failed attempt.. that's such a great move to scattered Ukrainian armies from eastern Ukraine...

[@hiufgterde]

Yeah no way they thought they could take Kyiv when 40.000 men. The west uses every opportunity they get to tell everyone how Russia is such a screw up. People have no clue

[@realedgyman5400]

Copium

[@elizdonovan5650]

To Willian Spaniel. Excellent video. Thank you. (1). Ukraine is/was a bread basket. How much did this influence the decision to try to annex part or all of Ukraine? (2). I have read that Russian replacement birth rate has been in decline since the early 1990’s. Can’t give reference, but no doubt you will know exactly where to find the information. How influential has the Russian declining birth rate been in Putin’s war thinking? (3). If Putin could have added Ukraine to his empire he would increase his population by about 23% of pre war figures. Since Ukrainian’s appear to be go ahead, innovative, courageous, no nonsense, healthy, confident, heroic, lionhearted etc. etc. type of people ... did he wish to increase these attributes generally among Russian people? If Ukraine was part of Russia it would be easier to mix the genetic pool and inherited traits of the Ukrainian people among the general Russian population by relocating pockets of Ukrainian people. It would take time but it could be done. He may not realize that the apparent docility of the ordinary Russian is a direct result of the conditions under which the Russians live. I am curious about your views on the above points. May this atrocious war end quickly. ☘️🌝🌲

[@UtDanik]

Ты очень наивен если думаешь что автор ролика ответит на твой комментарий через много месяцев после выпуска видео так что я отвечу тебе за него. Путин не преследует увеличение численности населения. А снижение связано с тем что российский народ достаточно беден чтобы прокормить, одеть, обучить и так далее огромное количество детей и потому в семье в основном 1-2 ребенка. Это раньше при императоре нужны были рабочие руки (вспахивать поля, поехать в город и продать часть урожая но в основном именно для работы в поле) а для ребенка в то время не нужно было ни великолепное образование ни всякие роскошные вещи все что было нужно это: каша и хлеб, рубаха, крест, соха. Вот и все прелести жизни (затраты) обычного крестьянского ребенка в России со времен создания Руси и до появления совхозов (начало 20 века) поэтому за последние 100 лет (особенно в наше время) происходит убыль населения. Украинцы НЕ ЯВЛЯЮТСЯ СУПЕР НАЦИЕЙ. Вы их описали так как будто украинцы во всех смыслах лучше русских и поэтому являются желанной нацией. Это не так! Тем более украинцы являются третьей в россии нацией (первые-русские, вторые-татары, третьи-украинцы) так что в России и так полно украинцев. НО ОЧЕНЬ БОЛЬШАЯ ЧАСТЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ УКРАИНЫ ЯВЛЯЕТСЯ РУССКИМИ!!! Это и является одной из первостепенных причин начала спецоперации а именно огромное количество русских на украине (Крым, ДНР, ЛНР, Харьков, Одесса и другие ВОСТОЧНЫЕ и ЮЖНЫЕ районы украины населенные русскими) и их защита или даже присоединение по результатам референдумов (как в Крыму в 2014) и является первостепенной задачей России. Я все доходчиво объяснил??? Или есть вопросы о Google переводе?

[@UtDanik]

И еще по поводу убыли населения. Так как СССР был один из самых передовых экономик мира то в то время в России не было убыли населения но после развала СССР Россия перестала быть сверх державой и появилась эта убыль населения. Так же очень сильно повлияла большая смертность от алкоголя в 90-е.

[@dinovolla9999]

No coup is possible when a president enjoys the support of most of the population.

[@mj8323]

You are looking at the coup attempts from the perspective of a banana republic, just individual gains no and no idealistic approach. I think that's wrong. there are examples where change of power was achieved without the stipulation of individual gains. It happened in Ukraine 10 years ago

[@nobodyknows3180]

Putin's latest approval rating is 116%

[@himoffthequakeroatbox4320]

There was an admin error, they accidentally published next month's figures.

[@sathwickborugadda4744]

Who counted? Biden?

[@edwinjewell5359]

More like 50/50. Russian people are Getting tired of him.

[@nobodyknows3180]

@@edwinjewell5359 I had to laugh at all the recent reports of recruitment centers getting vandalized, and people with "Z" on their cars waking up to slashed tires and smashed windshields.

[@doublehelix7880]

So, Ukraine is losing on all fronts, but the war is not going well for Russia. Interesting point of view :)

[@leonieromanes7265]

Russia had planned to conquer Ukraine 2 months ago. But they've only taken a sliver of the east. They're in the process of losing lucrative Western markets for oil and gas. And the NATO boarder is about to double with the inclusion of Finland. So the war is not going well for Russia at all. No one "wins" with war, people just suffer.

[@doublehelix7880]

@@leonieromanes7265 And who told you what Russia was planning? Putin? Shoigu? Ah, CNN :) Sure, they know all :) The process of "losing" the EU market looks like is not bothering them much. Anyway the economics in the rest of the world are way more perspective. About Finland - well, first USA have to please the sultan to the last drop with a smile and "Thank you". If Russian advance on all fronts is "not going well", please, enlighten us how it is going well for Ukraine? I guess the "Azov" evacuation in the POW camps is a huge victory :) And now we are about to see the next one in Severodonets. Oh, wait - the secret pan of Ukraine is to clog Russia with POWs and the Russians to surrender cause they cannot feed them anymore. I get it bro!

[@leonieromanes7265]

@@doublehelix7880 it's going horrifically for Ukraine. They are being murdered by the most brutal, undisciplined army in the world. But Russia won't win. No invading army has won anywhere since WW2. This will be a second Afghanistan for Russia. It's impossible to dominate any nation which refuses to be colonised. Russia will bleed itself out in Ukraine, for what? For putins ego. Russias economy will take decades to recover. Because they have proven to be untrustworthy trading partners on the global stage. If they're lucky, they might become a vassal state of China.

[@doublehelix7880]

@@leonieromanes7265 Ok, dude, ok, Keep living in La-la-land. But don't complain when the reality hits you like a brick in the forehead. it will hurt you.

[@leonieromanes7265]

@@doublehelix7880 Russia needs to remember, what goes around comes around.

[@bobmarshall3700]

It's only a matter of time.... It's not if but when.....

[@michaelmorris2623]

Wait for it!!!

[@vladkk]

You've missed a big point relevant to #1. Considering popularity among regular Russians, Putin's popularity with government officials and military is likely even higher. They are already rich and successful, at this point they don't even need propaganda to "feel and care about national pride". Its now the point of being the winner and giving the finger to those who said otherwise. One thing that "West" appears to ignore either accidentally or on purpose: Russia will not loose the war. Its technically, and more importantly, ideologically impossible. "We are fighting Nazis, defeat is not an option". Simple as that.. No matter how many weapons West will provide to Ukraine it will only delay its defeat. Young Ukrainians are not Afghani mujahedeen, they like "civilized comforts", they won't hide in the woods as partisans. Even hardened Azov battalion chose to surrender, you think some random kids will willingly die for Ukraine? On the other hand, with such high levels of propaganda there will always be volunteers to join Russian military and fight on.

[@talltroll7092]

I have to disagree with the assertion that Russia cannot lose. The political will at the top may have no limit to the sacrifices they are willing to make, but that will doesn't seem to be translating well to the actual soldiers who have to do the fighting, so it is entirely possible that morale of the army in the field will crumble, and they simply leave. The penalties they face are limited, because it's not a war, remember? The law was even amended to say so, so they can't be charged with wartime offences. More importantly, the Russian army as a relatively modern, well equipped one is starting to fade. They have large, but finite, stocks of high quality equipment, and sanctions are severely reducing their ability to replace it, because Russia has depended too much on importing components from outside to manufacture many of them, and the sanctions are making it difficult or impossible to get hold of new stocks or reasonable alternatives. Even worse, the economic side of the sanctions are starting to impact their economy. It will take some time for the full effects of those sanctions to show, but as Europe weans itself off Russian hydrocarbons, there isn't a way for Russia to really replace them as a customer. New pipelines take years and billions of dollars (or the equivalent in roubles, I suppose) to build, and Russia has neither. The world oil tanker fleet is entirely inadequate to pick up the slack and export the oil to anyone who might be willing to buy it, and the facilities and ships just don't exist to begin to do that for gas, whether there are willing customers or not. Russia is screwed, and only Putins head on a figurative silver platter can even begin to unscrew them. Ideology can be very powerful, but sometimes it runs smack into the cold, hard objective facts of life, which don't care what a person or a country wants, and facts can't be threatened, bullied, bought or ultimately denied. Those facts killed the USSR, and now they are killing the Russian Federation. I hope the next iteration of "Russia" learns some lessons from this time around, but I won't hold my breath

[@UtDanik]

@@talltroll7092 боевой дух начинает угасать??? Не смеши меня русского человека. У русских солдат никогда не угаснет боевой дух вспоминаем войну с Наполеоном (пришлось отдать сожженую столицу врагу!) во время первой мировой солдаты продолжали воевать хотя в их стране, за их спинами была гражданская война, вторая мировая война с ее огромными потерями в первые месяцы войны. И ни в одном из этих случаев русские не потеряли свой боевой дух. А уничтожать своих врагов ракетами через прицел/камеру не представляет угрозы боевому духу особенно когда это происходит уже не один месяц. Боевой дух мог быть сломлен только в первые дни благодаря терзанию совести из-за борьбы с братским народом и то правительство эти сомнения стерла за миротворческой миссией по уничтожению вооруженных нацистов которые 8 лет как уже бомбят мирных людей на Донбассе. А замену чипу в танке мы как-нибудь найдем, не волнуйтесь. Китайцы дадут или годик другой без новых танков обойдёмся до постройки заводов по производству своих чипов (тем более за зарубежные комплектующие в военной технике дают пинок по подзатылку от начальства) но точно это переживем. Тем более забавно наблюдать за компаниями которые уходят с российского рынка а потом возвращаются через месяц другой максимум меняется название 🤡🤡🤡🤡😂😂

[@kentkirkland5519]

Excellent informed analysis, Professor. Wish my university lectures in the early '70s had such good graphics. Looking for more from you.

[@user_222]

He's a university professor sir?

[@pholippe1441]

Here's a sixth reason: their are no plotters around him.

[@ЕвгенийПетров-в5п]

I'm just impressed how civil few comments I saw are. I guess they're all like that. Incredible.

[@gwho]

REAL geopolitics, grounded in game theory! Imagine if analysis like this was on mainstream news instead of the garbage propaganda they spew.

[@raydavison4288]

The elite .001% have spent tons of money buying up the MSM. That's why they no longer report the news.

[@inso80]

You might want to look into the channel Perun and the miniseries of the situation in Ukraine by Alexander Stubb. Beau of the fifth column is pretty good too. Anything else is pretty much meh with a need to a very critical sense of media.

[@raydavison4288]

@@inso80 Thank you for the suggestions. I will check them out.

[@rob2540]

Prygozin has all 5 cards lets see if he plays them well.

[@mynahbird20000]

because the cia has not been working hard enuff as when they split USSR and instigated Tian Ann men in China and the recent HK riots.

[@descendantsofancientamaruk8174]

None of your game theory assessments takes into account how Russians think or how Russia works. The mindset, morality, values, history and view of place in the world of the heterogeneous west(specifically the usa) vs the homogeneous Russian Nation are vastly different. As a result, your assement on this is DOA. Tip your scale a bit with more balance on both sides and your eyes will be opened. Nice topic though

[@proxyprox]

We need to see lines on Putin to understand this situation better

[@Gametheory101]

Huge misplay on my part here.

[@michaeldy3157]

Pooptin is a thief.

[@lilibujari]

@@michaeldy3157 Çfarë të ka vjedhur ty,personalisht?😂😂

[@sneaks9150]

I think it’s both sad and correct to not even mention the needs of the many when it came to oligarchs reasons to start a coup

[@thomasthetanderloin]

you are forgetting something you aren't considering the possibility that Ukraine joining nato is a red line for the entire Kremlin, not just the guys who like putin.

[@M6Individual]

Ukraine isn't joining NATO in the near future. They don't qualify right now. Plus if they were a member that would automatically invoke article 5 and would draw all of NATO directly into the war. Yes, others in the Russian power structure likely share Putin's concern with NATO and EU expansion and Ukraine being more Western oriented. But Putin has shown that his action backfired and the best way to not expand NATO further is to stop the war in Ukraine. Finland and Sweden are proving Vlad's plan has backfired.

[@thomasthetanderloin]

@@M6Individual As far as i can see, the war in ukraine isn't a plan. Its an ultimatum

[@mohammadhaji5730]

With all respects to your idea and analysis, my feeling why the Russians really rally behind President Putin is the very fact that the expansion of NATO eastward posed threat to their security. And they know this fact very well and that President Putin has always been working strongly to protect the Russian Federation again the foreseeable threat from NATO.

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

exactly. The war is necessary, and Russia is winning anyway.

[@chuckschillingvideos]

NATO does not threaten Russian security. NATO threatens Russian ignorance and poverty and the fecklessness and corruption endemic to the world's most dysfunctional "modern" state.

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

@@chuckschillingvideos >Implying America isn't the most corrupt state on the planet

[@mohammadhaji5730]

@@chuckschillingvideos Completely untrue!

[@ivankholodov8924]

Precisely. Also only a def and blind person is not aware what was going on Ukraine for the last 8 years with Nazis and Banderavites rampant, with ethnic Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians being targeted. Large segment of Russian society has been calling for something to be done with the threat coming from Ukraine. Hence when the special operation began in Ukraine, Putin's approval rating jumped up.

[@AvenEngineer]

Hey William, could you do a video on the likelihood of a Coup in Ukraine? The world will bless Ukraine with something approaching $100 billion in military aid in short order. In my estimation, the chance some of those weapons are used to overthrow the government in Ukraine, must be significantly higher than 0.

[@cllncl]

I think it's really unlikely. When the far-right ended up trying to do a coup d'etat in the final days of the Maidan revolution, it failed miserably, even though the country was in a state of basically chaos at the time. Now, Zelenskyy has higher support from the people of Ukraine than when he was first elected (Speaking from experience), so he would probably remain in power, seeing as how soldiers and other people trust him enough and vice versa that he can go to the frontlines to award soldiers badges of honor etc.

[@sgtmonkeypirate]

Lmoa another country invaded them. The high majority of their populous hates the Russians. Why would they stage a coup? They are standing behind Zelensky in their fight against the invaders.

[@BasemSayej]

Because coup d'etat is usually administred by western governments who can infiltrate 3rd world countries easily, but russia is hard to infilitrate.

[@atmshuvo44]

Tsar was abdicated when the whole of russia fell down. Time for yet to come,but will wait much longer.

[@nyikavarandazhou828]

Just imagine Putin is G Bush in Iraq and you will nit have a problem or imagine Ukraine was Iraq or Afghanistan Olympia and imagine that Russia was America or Britain and then you just accept what Russia is doing to Ukraine

[@Gopheria]

That was a funny speech by Sergey Lavrov ngl

[@contractorvegas5384]

The real question is why zelensky is still in power while recklessly sending his troops to die while posing for fashion magazines

[@meatball4409]

Who wants to be the first to plot against him? Especially knowing the loyalty he has that's based out of fear, the person who tries to organize the coup might not live to see it through

[@williamgill5286]

Ole Pootey lookin like softshell turtle in the thumbnail lmao

[@isaiahthomas4333]

if you were keeping up with the Russo Ukrainian war you'd know russia has recently made some major victories and ukrain has only achieved one minor victory

[@MsCwebb]

Ukraine and its forces are rapidly collapsing at this time.

[@isaiahthomas4333]

@@MsCwebb ya, and zelenski is refusing to cut his loses and pull his troops out of the donbas cauldron, he'd rather keep them there to get encircled

[@ilovethisworld3059]

I am amazed at the number of ignorant comments here, good to read someone who is doing a little research 🙂

[@compassroses]

Has anyone studied the phenomenon of "popularity" collapse within different styles of regime? Popularity --- and power --- shifts within democracies involve subsets of populations, not near-entireties. Dictators devote considerable effort to duping almost the entire population, which suggests that popularity is particularly fragile in totalitarian regimes ---------- at the first mass perception of negative consequences, duped popularity could vaporize like unfortunate T-72 tank crews. How would such a phenomenon play out in an authoritarian regime engaged in a truly foolish war? At what point would potential plotters decide to act?

[@Gametheory101]

This is the canonical work on that subject: www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674707580

[@compassroses]

@@Gametheory101 Thanks. So many interesting books, so little time! I suspect the answers to my questions will be revealed --- or not --- in time.

[@jameswyre6480]

Good presentation! In addition to your well taken points, Russia has a long historical situation without parallel in developed countries. I don’t think any nation has had the unbroken history of essentially genocide against rebels including anybody associated with them up to events like Putin’s assassination sprees and the Holodomor. Dead people and dead tribes cannot revolt. Also, Putin is best seen as the head of the St. Petersburg mafia and no figure in Russia in his government is not horribly evil and complicit in criminality. A mafia organization can be beheaded but it is still a mafia. Total regime change and, interestingly, a form of demafia-ization will prove to be the sole method of reform. As all around Putin know they will be prosecuted and executed or imprisoned as they know they are criminals, they cannot allow regime change to a rule of law republic and survive.

[@ikongchin3088]

Your biggest problem is that you think your lifestyle n beliefs is best for all the WORLD. THIS is what has fueled your aggressions and wars for over 265 ÷ YEARS. Look how far from your COUNTRY these NATIONS are??? At 1 of the schools.I attended as a youth was a bully who made life for us as mostly smaller boys a living hell UNTILL we came together and gave him the licking.of his life for roughly a week. THIS is what happens to people who bully

[@giantsashavor7809]

I think the Ottoman Empire can make a case for itself

[@rogerschleimer2034]

Thanks

[@the1exnay]

I just raised that a coup is kinda roko’s basilisk. If it succeeds, it becomes a danger to anyone who didn’t help it succeed

[@jamesmcrobert3820]

That's because the Russian people love Putin and they respect him and they believe what he is doing is right

[@basedstreamingatcozy-dot-t7126]

exactly. I don't know why that's so hard for fools to figure out.

[@Aaqe]

A referendum to annex the Warsaw Russian embassy to Poland When will the annexation documents be signed? Will there be celebrations as there were in Moscow for the illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine to Russia? Will the Polish parliament need to approve the results of this referendum? All nations of the free world should do the same to teach bully Pootin a lesson. Can you imagine the embarrassment of the Russians when they find themselves without embassies in the free world countries? Pootin's Russia should be expelled from the Security Council, at least it should NOT have any veto powers. Veto powers were not meant to be used by countries to defend their OWN criminal actions. Pootin is an embarrassment in the free world. He does not belong in the community of peaceful living in which we respect each other as a matter of moral principles.

[@youtubeoppressivecensorshi8047]

I think mistake let Putin have any land . The question to ask why us and nato response so weak and slow . We need to be proactive not let him take complete control of the situation. We shouldn’t let our fears of nuclear blackmail keep us from letting Russia win . We shouldn’t be afraid to confront Russia after bucha .We should have done a no fly zone . This is lot like ww2. Appeasement only let Putin push the west . We are giving him the room for the war crimes

[@phillyyardyvibes808]

Go start world War 3 at your own peril. This is not Iraq. Bullies only fight who they think won't fight back

[@danielhutchinson6604]

So why are Russians not defending Kamchatka today? The Propaganda Warfare seems to be doing a lot better than reality? Victoria Nulands War has exceeded cost estimates, and failed to provide any benefits.....

[@regnar19881]

He said "Unprecedented". How original.

[@stufromoz8164]

Imagine how good the world would be if countries like Russia worked co operatevly with the the rest of the world.

[@LjubomirLjubojevic]

Both Russia and China cooperate with majority of the world countries, it is only with the Western countries who want cheep resources and large market for exports instead of cooperation they are having problems with, mostly USA/UK trying to subdue/ruin them.

[@skeletonkeysproductionskp]

Great video as always, recently I've made a similar video that looks throughout Russian history to see all 4 times when a leader was overthrown and why, in "What if Putin is Overthrown?" Check it out and let me know your thoughts!

[@nobodyknows3180]

I thought the library background was a bit much. And you wave your hands quite a bit, kind of distracting. Otherwise some good information. I'll give you a like and a follow for effort.

[@skeletonkeysproductionskp]

@@nobodyknows3180 @@nobodyknows3180 Thanks, Ive had the library background because it makes it look more academic, plus it beats the plain white wall I used to have (check out my original videos just to see how bad it used to be haha)

[@flare9866]

partially because russia is winning lol

[@Shillabritish]

I love how it says yet

[@JasonHenderson]

This reminds me of that the onion video where Putin discovers Putin's plot to assassinate Putin

[@hazardousmaterials-ff7nm]

Aged like milk

[@ondrejtyc7578]

Putin was ousted or reasons in the video are not legit?

[@calvingrondahl1011]

Clear and reasonable.

[@markwalsh4882]

how many important people have either fallen of waterfalls or entire family died from home invasion in last month?

[@zer00rdie]

We are working on it. He is hard to reach. Getting close.

[@julianday]

When the people find out 40,000 troops will never return , we shall see what happens. Putin has told his people the casualty rate is light.

[@sholomg]

Another reason for there not being a coup is that there is nobody else that Russians consider as a viable alternative. When Russians were asked (even those who disliked Putin) who would be better, they couldn't come up with a name. This is because Putin has effectively (at times brutally) suppressed his opponents.

[@johnmc3862]

‘Oh Lee Garks’ lol.

[@daisygayle1369]

Where there is no love there is no peace.

[@solysek3314]

No one's dare to do.

[@goodenoughright5433]

My dyslexic ass read that ass "Why No Pudding Cup?"