Can Putin Survive a Lost War?

Рет қаралды 380,085

Күн бұрын

Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
If Russia loses the war, is Putin done for? We have explored how that possibility affects the ongoing war, and many analysts suggest that such an outcome is obvious. But what are Putin's weaknesses at home? And can he still politically survive a lost war? Also: a brief update on new polling regarding American support for the war.
0:00 War and Political Survival
1:32 Is Putin Doomed?
4:57 Popular Uprisings in Russia
9:55 Putin's Coup Risks
12:15 Western Support for Ukraine
14:20 Putin: The Great Demographic Unifier
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By RIA Novosti:
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Пікірлер: 1 700

@CountFisco 9 ай бұрын

[Narrator] As it turned out, Prigozhin definitely wasnt too big to fail

@keinenbockmehr1749 7 ай бұрын

Yeah... this statement didn't age well, that's true...

@ANeonSkinJoke 7 ай бұрын

He wasn't. Neither is Putin.

@alex_zetsu 3 ай бұрын

The reason everyone was mystified was because Prigozhin went into Moscow several times and didn't fall out a window so the theory of him being too big to fail sort of made sense. Once he came back 5 times, why would he suffer an accident on trip 6? The open analysts were surprised after he came back from his first trip physically unharmed. Maybe the CIA knew better, who knows. As it turns out, in hindsight it was probably that the first few times he went back to Moscow were not a great time to get rid of him, but unless you knew that his continued survival up to that point was mysterious and the mystery of the plane crash wasn't that it happened at all but that it didn't happen sooner.

@hamzamahmood9565 9 ай бұрын

4:04 It's worth mentioning that total U.S. losses in Vietnam happened over a period of 20 years, whereas we are barely into 18 months of the Ukrainian war, and Russia has already lost far more in manpower and equipment

@Flight_of_Icarus 9 ай бұрын

Not quite. The war as a whole lasted 20 years, maybe, but US involvement only lasted 8. I only point this out because Afghanistan was the longest war in US history, with the US being involved for the full 20 years, with even fewer casualities.

@Kastrenzo74 9 ай бұрын

In 3 days, Russia lost more troops than the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan, the whole thing. In about a week, they had lost more than all of the Coalition did during both fights too. (Not including friendly Afghan/Iraqi forces)

@arthas640 9 ай бұрын

@@Flight_of_Icarus really depends on how you count it since the US was in Vietnam since WW2 (Ho Chi Minh even met with the OSS who aided him a bit fighting the Japanese) and were aiding the French on a limited basis, they started stationing a real presence there after the French pulled out.

@arthas640 9 ай бұрын

I do find it hilarious how many people will try to compare the Ukraine war with the US's 2 wars in Iraq, the 1 in Afghanistan, or with the Vietnam war when the US was far more successful in each. In Desert Storm the US inflicted more than 10 casualties for every 1 they took, in Afghanistan coalition forces only took 3600 casualties across nearly 20 years while inflicting heavy casualties, and as you said the US took fewer casualties in 20 years than Russia has taken in about a year. Russia cant even reliably enter Ukrainian airspace despite claiming to have cutting age jets and claiming to be able to rival NATO.

@sveng3192 9 ай бұрын

Said CNN?

@vnegativa 9 ай бұрын

Putin: "I, lose the war? There was never a war to begin with!" Russian public: "Ok, whatever."

@fidiwiederspan7774 9 ай бұрын

Schwachsinn 😂

@cedriceric9730 9 ай бұрын

😂😂😂

@OhioButtShakerGyattMachine9000 9 ай бұрын

Literally 1984

@jahjah7495 9 ай бұрын

Sad Funny But True

@deeacosta2734 9 ай бұрын

Yup. Russians don’t give AF. Just want food and to look stronk.

@stevengordon3271 9 ай бұрын

I would think losing Crimea as well as the war might be a bridge too far.

@a5cent 9 ай бұрын

When you control all media in a country, no bridge is too far. Without counter narratives, if he himself decides when and how to end it, I think he is likely to keep his hold on power. I don't think losing the war, on his terms, is necessarily a problem for Putin. If he gets himself into trouble, I think it will be because he pushes too hard towards a victory. Pushing the Russian population, the military or the economy (i.e. the oligarchs) past their breaking point is what I think would most likely to be dangerous to his power.

@sylviamaresca8852 9 ай бұрын

I think so,too

@Someoneoutthere-mt6jp 9 ай бұрын

I love getting dominated by greasy old men

@LargePoulet420 9 ай бұрын

you think the kerch straight bridge was a bridge too far for putin

@ericdueck9405 9 ай бұрын

Ah, i see what you did there

@jonathanpenado5342 9 ай бұрын

Putin wanted to be Peter the Great, now, history will see him as the Nicholas II of the 21st century

@winzyl9546 9 ай бұрын

Vlad the impaled

@kurtwinslow2670 9 ай бұрын

@@winzyl9546Joe Biden

@SCH292 9 ай бұрын

Putin wanted to be the King of Games but now he's just a..."Third rate duelist with a 4th rate deck".

@andrerothweiler9191 9 ай бұрын

Or wanna be Hitler or Stalin

@NyPer920 9 ай бұрын

Vladimir the Inept .....

@jerniganal29 9 ай бұрын

I am one of those retirees that want the U. S. to do more to provide support to Ukraine. As you so clearly pointed out, we do remember the Cold War. When I was in the 1st and 2nd grades in Shreveport, LA, a figurative stone’ 0:01 s throw from Barksdale AFB, we practiced “duck and cover.” I well remember the Cuban Missile Crisis and the race to dominate space flight. Russia was and is a nemesis of the United States. We have a chance to hand them a defeat in Ukraine. The value of that is the depletion of Russian weaponry, the chance (in recognition of the points made in this video) of regime change, and the hope of mending the wounds created by this war, both in Russia as well as in Ukraine. Why hold back? Why abandon all of the efforts the U. S. has made so far when there is a good chance of making a difference? That’s the problem with the attitude of many people who are short sighted about the value of peace. We cannot just demand more for ourselves from the government and ignore the cost of seeking peace. I believe peace is possible if we continue with the current situation.

@ItsaRomeThingEverydayallday 9 ай бұрын

Well put!! Completely Agree

@bardamu9662 9 ай бұрын

You are totally delusional Sir! ... Ukraine is already in the verge of collapsing ... You can't save Private and corrupted Zélensky!

@MrUntapishtim 9 ай бұрын

You live in the past, buddy. You are also delusional.

@harunmusa8693 9 ай бұрын

Empire Of Lies 🇺🇸👀 West is Collapsing...

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

In the name of Allah, I invite you to worship Allah alone, so say, I bear witness that there is no god but Allah, and I bear witness that Muhammad the Messenger of Allah. This is how I entered Islam. Read about our Prophet Muhammad, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, whom Allah sent as a mercy to the worlds, to keep us away from Hell and admit us to Paradise by following him, Allah willing, as he is a prophet of the end of time. .. .. And the Seal of the Prophets and Messengers ...... ....................

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

Yeah "the kinship of Russians and Ukrainians". They had that before the war, Ukrainians for the most part, in interviews, thought of Russians as brothers. That is why almost all Ukrainians, even the ones tasked with maintaining that vigilance for the military refused to believe that the Russians were going to invade, even with more than 100,000 troops very quickly amassing on their common border with megatons of military weapons, equipment, etc. Putin truly has done a great job of uniting the two peoples though, since now the Ukrainians in general hate the Russian's guts, with a passion, to the point that when one of the invaders is eliminated, they cheer. aAnd rightly so, because those invaders are raping, pillaging, targeting civilians constantly even with prohibited weapons, like incendiaries, thermobarics, cluster weapons, etc. Putin accomplished PRECISELY the OPPOSITE of his intent, just like he has in EVERY other stated goal of this war. He is a brutal and totally uncaring idiot. 50,000 Russian fatalities over that period is ridiculous. Back WAYY before that, when the Ukrainians estimated 30k, the payouts of the Russian govt for lost military personnel were known, and using simple math it was shown that the Ukrainian numbers were about 10% low of the Russian payouts for eliminated soldiers. I don't know about you, but I take this to mean that the Ukrainian numbers then were trustworthy, and I've seen no reason to change the assessment of that accuracy since then. And who the hell cares what the Russians state, they literally lie about crap ALL THE TIME. Anybody who hasn't figured that out by now is either not paying attention, or hopelessly clueless. And true, in the Russian PropTV we have already seen them blame Putins provided wrong intelligence and his military staff's suggestions, rather than Putin for this cluserf**k of his, by design. It is SOP from the Russian playbook, as is targeting citizens, etc. "I pity the speachwriter that has to square that circle". VERY well said. Agreed, speculating on Uncle Priggy's role in this is a fool's errand. The best that can be done is come up with a bunch of empty theories devoid of solid support and even unsolid data. Putin and Priggy may not even know the truth of that dynamic, yet. And they most certainly don't know the ultimate outcome, either of them, just like the rest of us.

@jakeaurod 9 ай бұрын

At first, I thought they were cultural brothers too. Then I read a little history and it seems that historically, Kyivians resisted the Mongols, while the Moscovites bent over for them.

@SvetlanaVoikova 9 ай бұрын

@@jakeaurod 🤦‍♀️ how bad everything is in your story.. wikipedia your story? 🤭😆

@leonbishop7404 9 ай бұрын

nah. that article was good old FSB deception. say and do anything to get and maintain control

@up4open 9 ай бұрын

Then it's chaos and the first to move may have advantage.

@jackalopewright5343 9 ай бұрын

Ukrainians and Russians are indeed brothers. This makes it all the worse that the neo-Fascists in Kiev spent eight years shelling the predominantly Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and ignoring the Maidan agreements.

@LordOverTheLightOfRa 9 ай бұрын

Well there goes Yevgeny Prigozhin.

@noyopacific 9 ай бұрын

Listening to William Spaniel while drinking my morning coffee is always a treat. I would love to make it my daily routine if it weren’t for his day job and other projects. 😁 I’m very grateful that he takes the time to post these occasional discussions on KZbin!

@TKUA11 9 ай бұрын

What about sweets? You need sweets with ur coffee

@alexandersebela370 9 ай бұрын

Haha it's 21:50 in my country now east europe. Where are you from.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@johnmichaelson9173 9 ай бұрын

I'll take a pass on that.@@David-bv6xz

@professorg8383 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz No way Jose!!! Not gonna happen, In the name of Homer Simpson and Peter Griffin, I invite you to awaken from the dark ages. I bear witness that there is no go, Period, end of sentence. If there were, she would not allow all this stuff to happen and she would most certainly smite those who dared speak for her. BTW, with god being a women, your people have a lot of explaining to do!!! Let that little thought bang around in your empty head!!! Maybe Allah would listen to you if you recognized her for who she is!!! An let me just tell you, if you knew what she looked like, you would not demand she have to keep hidden in a potato sack!!!! Mother Earth or Mother Nature, as many of us refer to her, she is one powerful being!!! IDK how you guys could get it so wrong!! Maybe because you let bearded guys in dresses tell you how things are, BTW, don't get your heart set on a thousand virgins waiting to greet you when you die in Allah's name!! His mom has a surprise for you!! So now, if you want to preach your blasphemy, go somewhere where others like you hang out. Don't try to sell your mental mistakes to others!!

@Drave_Jr. 9 ай бұрын

I love the analysis of the poll. How do you manage to make it so something across several demographics have the same total average? I don't think I've ever seen that before. Also, making a "status quo or do less" be the same response is trying to push an agenda, and it still nearly failed.

@marbles863 9 ай бұрын

Tell me about it, this is actually pretty insane. I think it may be due to Americans not having 'skin in the game' so to speak, so they are looking at it from a very objective or moral standpoint. It could also be political affiliation, as that's the only demographic that was left out. And would explain the clean 50/50 split.

@up4open 9 ай бұрын

30% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

@kingace6186 9 ай бұрын

Classic CNN polls. Their ratings were probably down.

@BirdMoose 9 ай бұрын

Anecdotally I would expect the majority of folks in the 'no' category want the status quo, though that's based on personal experience so take it with a grain. That being said, framing it in such a binary would be fine if they were only trying to measure support of the growth in aid, but then taking that data and using it to look at anything other than growth or lack of growth is just bad data science.

@taln0reich 9 ай бұрын

I found that pretty intresting as well, given how often those demographic lines are major predictors for political views.

@StPiter111 9 ай бұрын

Any news about Kharkiv region? Kupyansk's situation? 😁😁😁😁

@luvr381 9 ай бұрын

That level of polling consistency makes me question the poll.

@arthas640 9 ай бұрын

Yeah, same here. In the US I've noticed many younger people who want more aid to Ukraine while more retirees are sick of foreign aid endlessly being thrown around by the government and sick of economic hardships following the 2008 recession (which we'd recovered from when COVID first hit). Seems like a poor poll to me since it doesnt give many choices and one of the options actually covers competing answers to the question. Since the options are "the US should do more" and "the US has done enough" the later option covers people who oppose US involvement in the war as well as people who are satisfied with the amount of support the US is providing, so both people who support and oppose US involvement are lumped together. The tiny amount of variation in opinion also seems rather suspect since you can often see figures like that due to small sampling sizes and/or due to taking an extremely limited poll. When it comes to some polls and studies, especially ones done by some universities they may do the questioning at a single location with psych studies being rather infamous for that which leads to skewed results since 20 random students at Berkley arent exactly representative of the whole country since they'll be almost entirely left leaning upper middle to upper class predominantly white and Asian people and including the staff can get you a variation in age but the teachers are likely to share a ton in common with the students.

@jddes 9 ай бұрын

It must be because you're a writer, but I love these videos because your prose is so satisfying. Not to mention some of the best war coverage on youtube.

@TKUA11 9 ай бұрын

Some of the best war content is not allowed on KZbin. Sometimes seeing Russian tanks fly to the moon is satisfying

@jddes 9 ай бұрын

@@TKUA11 I prefer this kind of content that include the behind-the-scenes of the war rather than frontline footage. As much as I dislike Putin and support Ukraine, I don't enjoy conscripts' deaths. Of course, I was just stating my opinion that it's the best war coverage. To each their own

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@Salvothegamer 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz nah, become a catholic, we have red wine and tits, and as much shit as you want, jesus died for our sins so it would be bad to not commit any.

@BoxedHavoc 9 ай бұрын

Literally look forward to this channels coverage! Thank you for such concise information.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz You should be banned from YT. This exact inane comment, pasted letter for letter on EVERY comment down to this point? What is wrong with you?

@sanholo3928 9 ай бұрын

fantastic video! your editing has come so far!

@kevinpierce9141 9 ай бұрын

Your book is really awesome William, 5 stars. I’m curious when the west is going to use increasingly more specific language about what security commitments for Ukraine could look like.

@patriot_pills 9 ай бұрын

Unironically, the best cover coverage of the war on KZbin

@mordreddelavirac 9 ай бұрын

Why would it be any mention of irony? I have been following William since the beginning of the war and I can't think of a more objective and impartial analyst.

@hungrymusicwolf 9 ай бұрын

@@mordreddelaviracThe only competitor is Perun which also does a stellar job of analyzing the conflict.

@DauthEldrvaria 9 ай бұрын

@@hungrymusicwolfAgreed Perun is doing an amazing job.

@someoneinoffensive 9 ай бұрын

Perun is a fair bit better but this guy's still pretty good

@mordreddelavirac 9 ай бұрын

I agree.@@hungrymusicwolf

@connorkilpin9645 9 ай бұрын

Honestly one of the best channels I’ve ever had the privilege to stumble across on YT. Amazing videos without fail

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@jessehachey2732 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz⁠Get a life! Stop spamming every last comment with your delusional fairytales BS! 🙄

@JasonLianneMac 8 ай бұрын

Watching this when it’s two weeks old. Amazing how quickly things change in this war.

@axelschubert5609 9 ай бұрын

Great analysis, again! And I finally ordered the book this time :-)

@SuperfieldCrUn 9 ай бұрын

10:58 "Maybe a presidential run in 2024 [for Prigozhin]?" ABOUT THAT

@reinoldi1097 9 ай бұрын

putins online version of "mein kampf" ? rofl... the jokes write itself 🤣

@kenithandry5093 9 ай бұрын

Thanks - I always find your videos interesting and helpful.

@professionalgiraffe7181 9 ай бұрын

14:10 you are very correct, hearing you plug your book for the 50th time did not change my mind on whether or not to check out your book but i did decide to click on the link

@foxtrotunit1269 9 ай бұрын

13:00 WOW I had no idea about this. This makes all the people sharing the poll results and saying "US doesn't want to help UA" look pretty sketchy.

@scaper12123 9 ай бұрын

The pollsters, as well. There was no reason for the headline to read like “Majority do not support Ukraine”

@SCH292 9 ай бұрын

Most of these "polls" are run by Russian Bot farms and they only target/spam/host the poll to stupid Right Wing American morons like Benny Johnson or right wing side in general. I can tell ya this. "The average Joe and Jane" doesn't even pay attention to this war. The left wing aka Democrats are too busy race baiting and talking about Trump. Most Right wingers are too busy crying, ranting and bitching on social media about Joe Biden.

@Grumpyoldman037 9 ай бұрын

You are so right. Preach it from the mountain tops. Everyone needs to know!

@JoanneLeon 9 ай бұрын

@@scaper12123It is very curious that CNN chose to frame it this way, no? That, in itself, is news, I think. I'm not sure that I understand why or where it's coming from. But I can think of a number of possibilities. CNN is in flux right now, which makes it more complicated to figure out though.

@advancetotabletop5328 9 ай бұрын

The Republicans “Red Tide” to capture the House turned into more of a trickle, in part because of the anti-Ukraine candidates. We’ll see in 2024 if this continues…

@paulgudedeberitz2335 9 ай бұрын

Interesting video, thanks for making it. I shared it to my Facebook because I wanted my friends to see it too.

@chasx7062 9 ай бұрын

Russia is losing, Ukraine winning says the propaganda. Yet the Yanks are peeing another 200billion down the drain again? China won't let Putin lose, coz they know they will be next. North Korea, certainly won't, neither will Iran... China trade with Russia is going thru the roof...

@balaclavabob001 9 ай бұрын

@@chasx7062 putin is spending 1/3rd of russias GDP on his failing invasion . That's money that could have been spent on education , healthcare ,infrastructure while America is using around 3% of just it's millitary budget to send weapons to Ukraine . Now the ruble is tanking and China is ripping russia off for every cheap deal it can get . Keep clinging to that bottle of cope , it's all you've got left .

@up4open 9 ай бұрын

@@chasx7062 Is that all? Try again, Tyrant lover.

@kosaraczek1 9 ай бұрын

Perfect, new vid! I was just thinking "huh its been already a week from the last one".

@glennjanot8128 9 ай бұрын

11:14 "Where's Surovikin" - found him :D

@ramr7051 9 ай бұрын

plugging in your book for the 50th time never gets old haha

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

Especially since he usually does it with some tongue in cheek slant, as he did here. We all gotta eat. :-)

@roberthanks1636 9 ай бұрын

All good points, yet in modern times, very few governments survive costly, unsuccessful wars.

@casualcamsh 9 ай бұрын

I think applying a low pass filter to the audio will help make your voice sound more crisp. Also try exporting the audio as a .wav file if you aren't already. That being said, as always, I loved the video!

@howardsimpson489 9 ай бұрын

To those who listen on 2 inch or smaller speakers, less/more bass makes no difference.

@michaelcramer2999 9 ай бұрын

I did buy your book and I'm reading it now. Very interesting.

@whatisdisname335 9 ай бұрын

Always happy to see you put out a new video! Quality content, with lines on maps, and always an interesting perspective, presented well. One of the few channels of the war that I've continued to follow throughout. Cheers!

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@LeCharles07 9 ай бұрын

You know that even when this s**tshow in Ukraine is over we will still demand lines on maps. Any thoughts about what you want to make? I think a "lines of maps recap" of various conflicts and the game theory behind them would be a cool thing to see. Thank you for all the great videos.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@kerlowsc3397 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xzMohamed likes his girls young. Go away

@kphaxx 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz You don't speak for him

@guitarhausdoesntknowwhatac3285 9 ай бұрын

Fortunately for everyone the lines were already drawn in 1992.

@MikeM-qb9qh 9 ай бұрын

The plug at the end was EPIC! Made me lol

@kanzeon7729 9 ай бұрын

Great video again, William.

@marciafirst2271 9 ай бұрын

I do remember the Cold War well. I remember the whole town nuclear war drills. I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. But most cemented in my mind was traveling to Poland during the Solidarity uprising in 1980. I sneaked Time and Newsweek magazines into the country that featured front page reporting of the uprising. My Polish friend did not like the Russians in her country. While there, the Russians were doing military exercises on the Polish border. My parents, afraid the Russians would invade, insisted I check-in at the US embassy in Warsaw. I understand well why the Polish government today is so fierce about defending their borders.

@mariakopp4948 2 ай бұрын

Hallo ich bin in Polen Geboren 1943 und bin 1990 Jahre wegen Heirat nach Deutschland umgezogen,und ich konnte nicht sagen,das die Russen etwas den Polnischen Volks gemacht ,war Ruhe keine Morden keine Überfälle wie jetzt gibt,man kann allein in die Mitte Nacht gehen ohne solche Angst ,wie jetzt,un die Bankrott in Polen ,haben ,die Polnische Volks gemacht, die haben alles was nicht geklebt , und fest genagelt Klauen,mit Schwere mit Anhänger Auto aus die Firmen gestohlene Ware gestohlen,und ruhig fahren ohne Kontrolle Polen war keine gute Regierung,man musste viel Schmiergeld geben bevor etwas gutes kaufen kann

@mariakopp4948 2 ай бұрын

Möchte paar Worten korrigieren geht nicht

@kicokyaw1039 9 ай бұрын

One particular country that I want to say that Putin can escape to if he loses is mine, Myanmar. It is very much a less desirable country to flee to, but unlike more powerful countries like China and NK, Myanmar's military junta is one of the few countries that perhaps adores Putin and values him independent of his strategic value. It most likely won't happen, but it's a scenario that I really wanna watch carry out.

@JocoMarkovic-gf1eh 9 ай бұрын

Hello from Moscow... Keep dreaming 😂

@JocoMarkovic-gf1eh 9 ай бұрын

@@Alex-zy7ot keep dreaming 🤡

@monkemode8128 9 ай бұрын

@@JocoMarkovic-gf1eh +999 СОЦИАЛЬНЫЙ КРЕДИТ, ПОЗДРАВЛЯЕМ ТОВАРИЩ!

@user-hu2ff8yd1u 8 ай бұрын

Путин никогда никуда не сбежит! Русские не убегают!! Почитайте историю нашей страны! Наполеон бежал в повозке из России, Гитлер покорил всю Европу прошелся, как на параде по всем странам ! Сунулся в Россию --- пришлось застрелиться вместе с Евой! И так будет всегда! Почитайте Бисмарка, что он сказал о России! Бо берегите себя, хотя бы из чувства самосохранения!!!

@user-hu2ff8yd1u 8 ай бұрын

И еще! Хоть знаете, что нибудь о Нагорном Карабахе! Пишете какую то чушь!

@VideoAssociates 9 ай бұрын

Enjoying every minute of your analysis, Luke from Australia 🦘😊

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@bierbrauer11 9 ай бұрын

SOLID closing on that one… glad I watched to the end!!

@MarcoHernandez-nb5dc 9 ай бұрын

History will remember him as "Putin the dwarf" 😂🎉😂

@Chas013 6 ай бұрын

putin the Khuylo is the correct historical title

@boomboomshaketheroom2405 9 ай бұрын

If you had an audio version of your book that would be great.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@boomboomshaketheroom2405 9 ай бұрын

@David-bv6xz Thank you for this generous offer. However, due to the nature of my current faith, I believe this would be frowned upon. But all the best on your path, and God bless you.

@alecsimon3776 9 ай бұрын

William, loved the show. Would love to buy your book. I don't do Amazon. Any other way to get one in the UK?

@tavernburner3066 9 ай бұрын

Does your book have an audiobook version.

@stischer47 9 ай бұрын

Sigh. This is as old as Russia. The people view the Czar as someone who loves the people and would not allow the terrible things happen to HIS people. All they need to do is tell the Czar and he will make the situation right.

@up4open 9 ай бұрын

Apparently in Russian criminal code the subject is allowed to appeal to Putin, hence these people can Protest without breaking the criminal code, by criticizing the government's responses. A built-in adherence builder I suppose, for those who don't see the trick.

@Supremeleader6997 9 ай бұрын

History has shown that Russia breaks apart when ever they lost to a smaller country

@chasx7062 9 ай бұрын

Losing has been a problem for the Russians

@Supremeleader6997 9 ай бұрын

@@chasx7062 you are right other countries also lose just like the usa lost in Vietnam and afganistan but I think American people doesn't really have much problem after all some countries are just too hard to conquer but Russian people cannot really digest defeat weather it is with Japan(1904) or afganistan (1989)

@YamnayaSintash 9 ай бұрын

you realise Russians eliminated more than 75% OF ALL German casualties in ww2, and destroyed napoleons empire? Oh and how the Russian REPEATEDLY humiliated the ottoman empire, by never allowing them to win over them and RIGHTFULLY taking their land lol

@advancetotabletop5328 9 ай бұрын

@Y: You know there’s a Russian bot when they mention the Ottomans.

@JohnSmithFromOhioOblast 9 ай бұрын

@@advancetotabletop5328 But they are make great truth, only western deny great Rus many victory fights against Ottomans! I would not be knowing though as I am Americans.

@catgaming9791 9 ай бұрын

Another great video. Thank you.

@durango.j-onez 9 ай бұрын

Gah guess Ill think about ordering your book. thanks Will 👍

@louisgiokas2206 9 ай бұрын

Everyone talks about a larger mobilization. What good is that without heavy weapons. It is not the troops in the trenches that been the real problem for Ukraine. It is the minefields. Simple as that. A bunch of trenches filled with troops with rusty AKs and Mosin-Nagants would not stop a mechanized attack without them. That brings in the other factor, artillery. Airpower would allow that artillery to be neutralized over a wide area quickly. The other issue that the analysts ignore is training. It would take six months to a year to properly train these troops. The Russians/Soviets have never stressed that. Read the WWII histories. It sounds the same. Waves of poorly trained troops sent right into the German lines to be mowed down by machineguns with masses of artillery backing them up. The Russia of today is not the Soviet Union of WWII. They don't really have the manpower. They are in demographic decline, specifically in the cohort of military age. They are also experiencing labor shortages in skilled areas needed for weapons production, and this time there is no US or UK sending them massive quantities of arms. So, let them mobilize. This will further alienate the various minority republics as well as collapse the center.

@Reticulated_Spline 9 ай бұрын

And yet Ukraine is still destroying 25+ artillery a week, which is pretty impressive without an airforce.

@louisgiokas2206 9 ай бұрын

@@Reticulated_Spline That is indeed truly impressive, as is much of what Ukraine has accomplished. But, the use of sufficient airpower over a specific area could eliminate the artillery threat and enhance a breakthrough operation.

@michaelbrodsky 9 ай бұрын

I was born in Czechoslovakia. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. I remember a lot!

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

As do the Poles, more than obviously. It's too bad the Ukrainians developed amnesia so quickly, meaning not taking the Russian invasion AT ALL seriously, even when there was absolutely no denying it. Countries do not suddenly amass 100k+ troops and megatons of military equipment at their tiny neighbor's mutual border because they are afraid of them, not militarily anyway. The DAY BEFORE the invasion virtually every Ukrainian interviewed on the street in Kyiv said the equivalent of Nah, no way, they're our brothers...and for them it has been a VERY short time since extricating themselves from Russian rule.

@justadddiesel 9 ай бұрын

As soon as you have an audio version (of your book)I'll buy it.

@edwardstd52 9 ай бұрын

That last sentence in the video is 100% on track. We old geezers to remember the Cold War and I spent most of my life prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the US military worrying about that stuff.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@janvdplaat3067 9 ай бұрын

Can Putin Survive a Lost War? William Spaniel explains: I've no idea (09:25)

@advancetotabletop5328 9 ай бұрын

(: Well, he is arguing against the assumption that Putin will lose power (which does not mean Russia will lose the war), and that Putin is an unpopular figure in Russia. IMO, I think a frequent mistake the west makes is a frequently dismissive “Why aren’t they thinking like us” with no attempt to understand the other side’s POV.

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

@@advancetotabletop5328 They absolutely DO NOT think like us. If YOU want to actually understand what they do think I suggest the YT channel "1420". That channel consists of interviews on the street in Moscow, mostly, on topics concerning Putin, the war, etc. There are a few totally rational people that know what is going on, usually the younger that tend to be more computer savvy and have VPN. But the majority are beyond clueless and understand NONE of what we see going on in Ukraine. Many support total genocide or ejection of the Ukrainians, for their own good, and think the Ukrainians have a lot of gall for rejecting the Russian's offer of brutal and total occupation. Go figure, since the last go round 4-7 million Ukrainians were PURPOSELY starved to death by Stalin. Before you say that Putin isn't Stalin, go look at how he has elevated Stalin from someone that was one of the most hated by Russians, because he killed a few million of those two, He is now being portrayed as a hero of Russia, as the creator of the USSR, that pox on the Earth that crumbled under its own rot. I'm to the point that I hope the Russian Federation does the same, who needs them? Putin is not as unpopular as you think, in fact to a very large percentage of Russians he can literally do no wrong. He has done interviews in Belarus, very rural Russia (THAT is an eye opener), and other major and minor cities. At least the Russians do seem to be getting very tired of PropTV, as Solvyevs and other such programs now have a small, and increasingly smaller audience.

@quill444 9 ай бұрын

Putin: _Dead by Halloween._ 🎃 - j q t -

@Ofasia777 9 ай бұрын

Putin is a textbook example of a dead man walking.

@nsevv 9 ай бұрын

Ukraine war is a textbook stalemate. Historically in every stalemate the attacking side always gives up, retreats and loses. It is just a matter of time.

@Ofasia777 9 ай бұрын

@@nsevvUkraine has been advancing on various front everyday since June 5. Unlike the one advance done by Russia since, which Ukraine immediately started to push back decisively, all Ukrainian gains have been maintained. While it might seem slow, in this war, all noteworthy victories have belonged to Ukraine so far anyway, so as you say, it's only a matter of time. You shouldn't give your own post a thumbs up, makes you seem insecure in your own opinion.

@Tsuchimursu 9 ай бұрын

I will reconsider the book when I can read it through my ears as an audio book :)

@scotthazelton519 9 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing

@Em76394 9 ай бұрын

I think we should do more. As in, something absolutely decisive and meaningful. I am not afraid though so that may be why. I think we have more potential than we are using on the chessboard.

@advancetotabletop5328 9 ай бұрын

I’d rather fund Ukraine than the IRS, that’s for sure!

@jorgecaballerocastillo2435 9 ай бұрын

The quality of the videos is going down. Here is what I saw problematic: 1. No lines on maps. 2. The advertisement sentence at the end changed.

@samyfay7786 9 ай бұрын

I agree with you. The almost uniform spectrum of this poll is rather surprising. Makes me want to applause. 😄

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@stevenjohnston7809 9 ай бұрын

What are your thoughts on Russia increasing it's interest rates? I'm not sure, but I would like to think hyper inflation is about to happen, but I digress. Good video.

@ItsJoKeZ 9 ай бұрын

well I sure hope not

@martindice5424 9 ай бұрын

It’s a classic patron/subservient relationship. Russia is a gangster state. Simple and depressing…

@asan1050 9 ай бұрын

Thank you very much!

@Khal_Rheg0 9 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@poo934 9 ай бұрын

really interesting details about the polling numbers at the end. thanks for all your videos!

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

They were NUTS! The consistency across every demographic was shocking, to me, until I realized that many realize that if the Russians are not stopped in Ukraine, their children, grandchildren, etc. may be shipped over there to possibly die if a NATO country is attacked later.

@thequeenofswords7230 9 ай бұрын

Philosoraptor: What if Putin's army is too weak to defeat itself?

@13253415 9 ай бұрын

That is actually a valid question. Own army is dictator's biggest threat. And keeping it weak is a valid strategy when no external enemy exists.

@thequeenofswords7230 9 ай бұрын

@@13253415 Haha, yeah. I was sorta thinking about this and imagined Putin being assassinated or something and Russia falling into a "Warring States" period. But yeah that's definitely a calculation made by an autocratic leader and I think it's really hard to overstate the ways in which a paranoid individual psychology manifests when those are the hands operating the machinery of the state. And with Putin he's essentially crafted at them from the ground up for time immemorial (in geopolitical terms). Maybe what we have is a case of Putin thinking he's been only getting stronger this whole time while sowing the seeds of his undoing.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@kerlowsc3397 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xzMohamed married a kid.

@thequeenofswords7230 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz Oh? Okay, cool. Does Allah compose all things?

@chrisb8667 9 ай бұрын

Love the creative book plugs

@tomambrosio5527 9 ай бұрын

Great video.

@ToxicNets 9 ай бұрын

Love these. keep them coming William.☺

@TKUA11 9 ай бұрын

It’s bill

@csours 9 ай бұрын

"If only the tsar knew how bad it was!"

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

What makes you so sure that he (Putin) doesn't? He certainly knows what it is doing to his country economically, Even he isn't THAT dense and stupid. I love how everyone has all these theories, most of which directly contradict one another, and none of which have any data to support them, whatsoever.

@momala3919 9 ай бұрын

the video should start with the following phrase: "before you survive a lost war, this war must be lost"

@clairejeannette8454 8 ай бұрын

Thank you as always.

@ronnrayy5449 9 ай бұрын

And stop saying that the ruble collapsed! It's a special military letdown

@boardcertifiable 9 ай бұрын

Special Economic Restructuring

@heylolp9 9 ай бұрын

Putin is apparently a greater US political force than either of the parties could even dream of The way he united people across the board on one stance is amazing, granted it is against him but still

@Dexter037S4 9 ай бұрын

That'll change during the election cycle, Russian Disinfo will be put into Trumputin's brain.

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@heylolp9 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz thanks for the invite my friend, however I've read the Qur'an (not in arabic because i don't speak it) and spent a lot of time also understanding and talking to my muslim friends, I do not think that the right way for me in life is Islam. However you are certainly welcome to pray for me in your own evening prayers (i know the morning and mid-day ones are way more personal in meaning) just like Allah commanded. Just remember a non-Muslim is someone you're supposed to pray for so they find back to Allah either on this earth or even just for forgiveness after Salam aleikum my friend

@skarhabekgreyrukh8601 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz dude this is not how you spread Islam.......

@jessehachey2732 9 ай бұрын

@@David-bv6xz⁠Get a life! Stop spamming every last comment with your delusional fairytales BS! 🙄

@charleschristner7123 9 ай бұрын

Surovikin is at the banner between the o and the c.

@soulshinobi 9 ай бұрын

Definitely hearing some compression artifacts in the voice recording, might want to check your audio recording quality settings.

@soulshinobi 9 ай бұрын

At 1:26 for example you can hear this kind of robotic echo, might be excessive use of a noise cancellation feature, not sure.

@robinblick9375 9 ай бұрын

A nation of willing slaves does not stage an 'uprising' against a dictator. Moreover, even if Putin loses, they will allow themslves to be persuaded that he has won. So the only alternative is a coup. Prighozin has demonstrated that this is a viable option.

@Llortnerof 9 ай бұрын

At the rate they're going through their young men, we might end up with a scenario where Putin survives, but there's no Russia left.

@lydiazafra3476 9 ай бұрын

I hope Ukraine will win this war and Ukraine will have their territories back , ty William as usual excellent reports ❤and prayers from USA

@David-bv6xz 9 ай бұрын

@videobyredjade 9 ай бұрын

Thank you

@OutletVibes 9 ай бұрын

the 50th plug for your book worked. I checked it out

@RedbadvanRijn-ft3vv 9 ай бұрын

That dwarf Putin wil try to escape in a pram

@RandomGuy37 8 ай бұрын

10:58 Jesus this one aged like milk

@Futureshucks 9 ай бұрын

2:35 - Putin as a receptionist. "How may I direct your call."

@goodfortunedj 9 ай бұрын

14:20 Fascinating - we finally found something that cuts straight down the middle of the American psyche

@YOYO-xy3yg 9 ай бұрын

both sides have been infiltrated from within

@arthas640 9 ай бұрын

Seems like a poor poll to me since it doesnt give many choices and one of the options actually covers competing answers to the question. Since the options are "the US should do more" and "the US has done enough" the later option covers people who oppose US involvement in the war as well as people who are satisfied with the amount of support the US is providing, so both people who support and oppose US involvement are lumped together. The tiny amount of variation in opinion also seems rather suspect since you can often see figures like that due to small sampling sizes and/or due to taking an extremely limited poll. When it comes to some polls and studies, especially ones done by some universities they may do the questioning at a single location with psych studies being rather infamous for that which leads to skewed results since 20 random students at Berkley arent exactly representative of the whole country since they'll be almost entirely left leaning upper middle to upper class predominantly white and Asian people and including the staff can get you a variation in age but the teachers are likely to share a ton in common with the students.

@ohajohaha 9 ай бұрын

"The tsar is good, only the boyars are bad" and if not them, then your neighbours are in the wrong. Russians just have had this weird thing since time immemoriam.

@TheTitaniumSkull 9 ай бұрын

CNN polls, only apply to those few that follow CNN. And using only CNN polls is also incomplete in regards to how the US may really feel.

@La_Space 9 ай бұрын

Another outstanding analysis. BTW he is between O&C at the front of the banner.

@lukehlozek4491 9 ай бұрын

You know what? You plugged your book for the 50th time and i have now bought the book, I'm looking forward to reading it when it comes tomorrow 😅

@GojiMet86 9 ай бұрын

Russia supporters: "Can Putin survive a lost war? This is no war, this is just day 537 of a 3-day special military operation, of course he can survive 3 days! Please Western media, get your facts straight!"

@Dampferfrosch 9 ай бұрын

I am not interested to know if he can survive - i am interested to find out how to send him to mars for a happy retirement ....

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

Not worth the expense. Six feet under, at any location will do. That only involves finding a shovel and a small bit of work.

@ChazmillsADLT 9 ай бұрын

Yep I’m a retired military man and would want it to stop now: how? By giving them what they need NOW. A drip feed will allow Putin to adapt, whereas an all out supply of the right equipment as soon as possible would stop the war quicker and with less bloodshed. I was a boxer whilst in the military and if I thought my opponent was likely to hurt me badly then it was all in and surprise him with my ferocious attack; it worked many times and saved me some long term pain over multiple rounds where he would recover and inflict more pain.

@blades9152 9 ай бұрын

The problem isnt the equipment, its that they dont have enough soldiers to use it. Gone are the days of long lines at recruitment offices in ukraine.

@Joaquin546 9 ай бұрын

@@blades9152 like here the main comment has one like but you have three in three minutes? Hmmm 🤔

@nekrosis4431 9 ай бұрын

I like the self aware way you advertise your book in this video.

@zenmode88 9 ай бұрын

Prigozhin too big to fail? This didn't age well - 8 days...😉

@user-sr7xx2im2z 9 ай бұрын

I'm watching your channel all the time since seeing the video about the battle for Kyiv. It's probably one of my favorites. I'm personally Ukrainian and speak Ukrainian as my first language, though I also speak perfect Russian, so thought of mentioning one thing regarding this video. Around 7:57 you mention one of the Russian politicians wavering around and not expressing his attitude clearly. In the video, it sounded like all people around Putin are advising wrong/mistaken things. However, from my perspective, the point was different. This incident was rather showing that this politician is trying to say what is expected from him. Like he was afraid to mention something wrong that wouldn't align with parties' and Putin's vision. The fact that he was pushing him to make up his mind just proves that this line of acting was suggested by him but not by his advisories. So in that meeting, they were discussing the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk sovereignty, but the guy sort of knew or felt what the actual goal was, so when he was asked, he mixed stuff and said that he supports the occupation, even though that wasn't a topic of the discussion. I often hear from people especially those from Russia that Putin is very smart and whatever he says should not be interpreted directly. They think that there is always some hidden context. But if you take his words directly, as he says them - you won't think that he is smart.

@user-sr7xx2im2z 9 ай бұрын

Also just wanted to add, that the way he came to power was very questionable. He was definitely a part of the Mafia in Petersburg. And all the reforms that followed were not done by him particularly, but rather by a circle of people around him. To bring an example of the "stupid" things he says, after Kursk, he was asked - What happened to the submarine? Putin replied: It drowned. Just check that interview! Everything about this phrase was extremely stupid, even his facial expression. It was a huge tragedy for his nation and all he was able to say was "It drowned".

@matruxas 9 ай бұрын

Why is your book has no audio version voiced by yourself?

@javierpatag3609 9 ай бұрын

To Mr. Spaniel: I've been wondering: If Putin is really entrenched and coup-proofed despite his failures in this war, what are the chances that disaffected Russians instead turn away from trying to remove Putin to just breaking off a part of Russia into their own new country where he doesn't rule? Given also that conscription focuses mainly on non-ethnic Russians, those places would be taking the most losses.

@MrJdsenior 9 ай бұрын

If you think they are taking losses now, watch what happens if a section of Russia does try that stunt, the ole Russian referendum trick, on Russia. The only way that will happen is if the Russian Federation fails in general. I understand the implications, as they were with the USSR, but we dealt with them then, and we could deal with them again, IMO.

@anthonydavinci7985 9 ай бұрын

Good analysis . Only issue I have is with USA losses from vietnam. Technically your correct but when I lost my uncle ; his son turned to drugs. You haven't included all the soldiers injuries . My neighbor suffered for years from agent orange , then dying from damaged lungs.I know another Vet who has agent orange damage, has two granddaughters that are born with Many Birth defects..IMPOSSIBLE ODDS for this . SO American victims from vietnam run into 3rd generation. This same Vet told me how all American soldiers were told agent orange was safe..They held huge amount close to mess tent area. ECT .

@up4open 9 ай бұрын

Would matter if the Kremlin wasn't about keeping the authority of the oligarchs. They don't care if everyone they rule dies at 30, so long as someone continues to clean their yachts.