What Happened To The Polls In 2016 - And What You Should Know About Them In 2020 l FiveThirtyEight

The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.
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[@iammrbeat]

I gotta say, this dude has a good on camera presence.

[@anticorncob6]

Mr beat, it's you! Do you check the fivethirtyeight odds regularly?

[@ragskul4891]

Whoa mr beat, first I saw his video, then on Lets talk Elections and then here. Wherever there is election talk, Mr Beat is there. God.

[@vinrod4]

Hey, Mr Beat, I watched you like 10 min ago.

[@semcmeans6062]

Get him on the podcast.

[@TempleofSolomon]

Still waiting on bivens v six unknown named agents by the way when’s the next stream?

[@HickoryJ]

I feel like this dude is a human representation of the fivethirtyeight fox, down to the glasses

[@spunkmc482]

When I see a comment this good I make sure to like it AND unlike every other comment I liked

[@jeremynewcombe3422]

Word you’re looking for is personification.

[@kchishol1970]

Yeah, this channel should create an animated version of the fox, and Mr. Mehta should voice him!

[@l.ukeeeeeee]

November 2016: times square has never been quieter April 2020: hold my beer

[@harisaran1752]

Best one

[@localwillow9948]

😂

[@mekumcream8279]

According to Trump it's a ghost town. Booing isn't always ghosts.

[@irelandlynn2454]

Hahahaha! 🥇

[@theoldfinalchapters8319]

Kavanaugh has entered the chat.

[@omechron]

Anyone who thinks a 71% chance is a guarantee should be forced to play X-COM for about 20 minutes.

[@connorhornsey6717]

Actually the most accurate KZbin comment I’ve ever seen.

[@trix10101]

This comment wins

[@InvestingBookSummaries]

Lmao

[@marcnassif2822]

@gothicman03 well the game shows you probability at play, and is notoriously punishing, so I'd say yeah, playing XCOM really taught me to appreciate that even 99% is not a win

[@intensifiedfailure5681]

@gothicman03 Probability works the exact same in a video game as it is in real life. An event has x percent chance of occurring whether or not it's an election or a shot hitting in xcom. Not our fault you never made to past algebra and don't understand basic probability.

[@dillonblair6491]

Saying that the polls were wrong because Hillary lost would be like saying the statement "winning the lottery is unlikely" is wrong because people have won before. Probability doesn't work that way. Unlikely events can still happen.

[@farhadsenzai7890]

Best analogy i've heard yet.

[@AshA-ww8hc]

The problem is you can't have it both ways. Nate Silver's claim to fame was that he "predicted every state that won the election in 2012 correctly". We all know that he had a higher probability for who won the election, but every one claimed he was "right" because of aggregate polling. So when polls do not predict the winner correctly, then it is fair to say that the polls were wrong.

[@dillonblair6491]

@@AshA-ww8hc 1. Nate silver predicting every state in 2012 is literally irrelevant to the conversation. 2. Again, you don't seem to understand probability, its like you didn't read my comment before responding. So let me say it again in case you missed it. Polls are for *probability* and An unlikely event happening doesn't show a poll to be wrong in the same way winning the lottery doesn't mean it wasn't unlikely.

[@AshA-ww8hc]

@@dillonblair6491 FFS I understand probability. You don't seem to understand my comment. Are we allowed to say "polls were right" if the winner was the person who was found to have the "higher probability" of winning by the polls? Based on your logic, we certainly do not want to hear about how the polls were "right" if Biden wins, given that it only said he had a "higher probability" of winning. It goes both ways. If you can't say the polls were "wrong", you most certainly can't say they were "right".

[@dillonblair6491]

@@AshA-ww8hc Yeah, You cant really say the polls are 'right' either. Just that they say 'x' is more or less likely than 'y'.

[@dougiebrunton2722]

Surprisingly charming political commentating

[@chopin65]

Why surprisingly?

[@captainchuppachup]

Because most political commentating in the past few years has been shouting and stamping feet?

[@chopin65]

@@captainchuppachup Well, I felt like he was talking to me like I am a child.

[@captainchuppachup]

Can't really comment how you feel about things. That's on you.

[@captainchuppachup]

I Can't really comment about how you feel about things. That's on you.

[@pedrovalentino6684]

Pollster’s jobs: “I’m in danger 🔥😃🔥”

[@crabuki1273]

Wonkiness with a dose of wacky enthusiasm. Alright... alright, I'm here for it.

[@alexd9341]

Put this man on the podcast!!

[@Stuie299]

He reminds me of Anziz Ansari's character Darryl on Bob's Burgers.

[@lumpy0100]

Thanks Crabuki.🙂 Butter be huh, Truckles

[@eladiomendez8226]

Very informatove. Also, loved the fadeout at the end of the video.

[@Attlanttizz]

He's *still* talking as we speak

[@fivethirtyeight]

@@Attlanttizz It's true. We're considering an intervention, but we can't get a word in.

[@Attlanttizz]

@@fivethirtyeight 🤣🤣🤣

[@scph321]

Perfectly informative and fun video. Thank you !

[@Uouttooo]

@@fivethirtyeight :D:D:D

[@ChloEHopsonSings]

There is no way he has actual lenses in those frames.

[@orchidathens6255]

Looks like no lenses in the frames AND wearing contacts. Meta-optometry?

[@BLenz-114]

You're right. I hadn't noticed, though. There's no anti-glare coating THAT good.

[@abbaszaidi8371]

Thanks- see my comment 😊

[@bronzewolf6464]

Glad someone else noticed 😂😂 Great video otherwise!

[@designgirl3556]

This was driving me crazy. Thank heavens it's not just me.

[@hardyr]

This guy comes pretty close to how I imagine Fivey's voice.

[@hershtolani]

This guy has such a cute way of presenting. Get him on more often.

[@recordkeepingandinformatio8206]

Low probability is not impossibility. Hell, probability 0 is not impossibility. Welcome to Bayesian probability.

[@21gshehan]

Great video! A lot of easy to understand information. I usually get laughed at in the comments I make when defending polls after somebody talks about how polls are completely biased and useless. I'm not sure if this will actually convince that type of person, but it's a good resource to help. Thanks!

[@MrFancyDragon]

Lol, his voice is perfect for Fivey the Fox

[@zoroark65]

A furry would know that well! Rawr on

[@MrFancyDragon]

@@zoroark65 Hey!! ... Okay it is true I am a furry, but still his voice is perfect for Fivey lol

[@chrisgoetz3816]

538 needs to have this guy on more.

[@patrickoneal8514]

Very informative, Mr. Mehta. Thank you for this presentation.

[@DreamBelive07]

VOTE. Polls can be predictive only if you ACTUALLY vote. so for the love of god, vote in person if possible and in accordance with your state laws, track your ballots, and do not get complacent. LAST LEG people.

[@Wasserkaktus]

@IwillSLAP theSHITOUTchoo Bad troll account: Go away and never come back again.

I would like more Professor Polls, please!

[@Vaikilli]

I think "They got it wrong in 2016!" might be the worst hot take out there this year.

[@velnz5475]

Maybe, maybe not. A repeat isnt impossible.

[@dmnemaine]

@@velnz5475 In order for the polls to be "wrong" this time around, they'd have to be way more "wrong" than they were in 2016.

[@velnz5475]

@@dmnemaine I am going to put this out there; it accounts for a fair election. Not so sure this year will be a fair election.

[@dmnemaine]

@@velnz5475 Trump's out of money. He doesn't have the funding to use the courts to try and steal the election. And so far, it doesn't look like voter suppression tactics are working either. Over 60 million people have voted by absentee/early voting.

[@clafournaise]

I think you forgot the lenses for your glasses

[@allu717]

I think they look cool

[@Fix_It_Again_Tony]

I am sure his glasses are exactly as he wants them. They look fine to me. I think it's better to have no lenses than fake ones.

[@outrageouselefant]

@Unabashed Hedonist i've done it before when i got contacts but hated the way my face looked so different after 30 years with glasses lol

[@UnarmedPug]

This is what I came to the comments for. It was so distracting, made it hard to pay attention to what he was saying.

[@pcpolice2314]

its like riding a wheelchair for the fun of it!

[@PokeyVids]

The funny thing was it wasn’t just the US polls that were off in recent years. Our polls (Aus) were still off in 2018. And iirc brexit polls were also wrong. So really the only thing you can do is Vote!

[@ryanmccartney244]

Unfortunately over the last few years, the pollsters have overestimated the level of sanity in countries previously thought to be (at least somewhat) sane, especially with respect to the US and UK.

[@iLordNoob]

The Brexit polls showed a close victory for Remain but within the margain of error and if you're looking at the polls the way this video is telling you, you would know that it could go either way. If the polls show a race is 51% for Candidate A and 49% for Candidate B and B wins the election with 51% of the vote, it doesn't mean the polls were wrong, a 2% margain of error is pretty good, so picking the winner of a close race on it's own doesn't really tell you much about the accuracy of those polls.

[@leary4701]

@@iLordNoob thank you, I still remember the overhyped exit polls in 04 that had us Kerry voters way to optimistic. polls are still typically 1,000 people grain of salt seems obvious

[@aarond23]

I think 'forgetting' to poll Wisconsin was probably the big mistake of 2016....

[@jovenramirez1488]

Trump supporters: “All the jellybeans posing as green were red!”

[@RoderickWright-sm6jq]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Thanks I needed that!

[@Tallnerdyguy]

All the jellybeans are red if you call all colors red

[@RoderickWright-sm6jq]

@@Tallnerdyguy That is where the delusion comes in for trumptards. They say that all the jellybeans are red regardless of any proof based on real facts or data 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@RoderickWright-sm6jq]

@Ares Exactly!! 🤣🤣

Democrats: "All the blue jellybeans were actually Russian spies infiltrating our democracy"

[@aa898246]

Wait... do you guys know what this all means? Absolutely nothing, go out and vote.

[@davidmurphy563]

That was excellent. I've had this "debate", it was with uneducated voters funnily enough.

[@EliStettner]

@MTA Denizen We shouldn't insult people who didn't get a college degree, but I see your point. Most issues the experts no more than almost all people do.

[@kbomb1235]

You rarely have this debate with educated voters. That’s why

[@kbomb1235]

@@EliStettner lets be clear. Non college educated voters and non educated voters are NOT SYNONYMOUS. I’ve met plenty of PhD educated individuals who are completely uneducated on politics and polling

[@davidmurphy563]

@@kbomb1235 I wasn't arguing for superciliousness. An uneducated person can be cuttingly intelligent, wonderfully insightful and vice versa. We can all find ourselves on the left edge of the Dunning-Kruger chart in a subject we are new to. We're all attracted to simplic, hand wave explanations that suit an appealing worldview until we get into the weeds of the topic and our phoney confidence vanishes. But the only defence against populism is a solid grounding in, not education per se, but critical thinking, and that's a learnt skill.

[@kbomb1235]

@@davidmurphy563 I know that you were not. My reply to Eli was specifically in defense of your original post.

[@christ5672]

This is the video we all need right now. Very articulate wording to make it much more accurate than a merely generic claim about polls one way or another

[@mirzabaig2004]

awesome video. Would love to see more of this guy on 538's channel.

[@michael-we-are-legion-brown]

Wait, we need to model our predictions based on the electoral process?! Love the video! I wish more news was as smart as 538.

[@eldabys]

yo i love this guy. you need to get him back for more videos

[@DatNguyen160]

I have a question, why are you so quirky, funny, yet informative?

[@stephenderry9488]

So Trump won because there weren't enough green jellybeans. I'm ok with this.

[@fredfreddy8684]

More green Jellybeans! (I heard a rumor they can also make people a little randy. So, double-pluses.)

[@frenchbreadstupidity7054]

No, the state polls were inaccurate because Trump has a lot of green jellybeans and they didn't have enough green jellybeans in their sample.

[@mariahelizabeth_ent]

Dhrumil is Soo adorable but also handsome and wholesome! I really love this 🤗 so much personality for 538

[@paulwright8282]

You guys are the only ones keeping me sane - thank you!

[@tamilupk]

I got to say, pollsters have to work again on their methodology In lots of states it’s even more inaccurate in 2016

[@anticorncob6]

I remember the day before the 2016 election watching the Secular Talk prediction video, when he said (paraphrasing) "In 2012 there were 3% of people who were undecided or voting third party. This year- 13%. That could decide it right there!" And it did.

[@devilduckietu]

I love this video!! He needs a series.

[@pieterck1987]

Thanks for informative videos

[@codybyrne7398]

"So should you trust the polls again in 2020?" This.... has not aged well

[@fishiusk168]

Polls should also have a "Facebook" weighted factors. How long someone spends their time on Facebook is directly correlated to how stupid they are, and therefore how prone they are to being misled

[@zualapips1638]

I will be the next Einstein then. So excited.

[@DomainAspect]

That's just stupid considering democrats use Twitter and Facebook more.

[@angelanimmo525]

I’m on FB frequently. I am in a lot of groups for my interests, so I have a nice little bubble away from the conspiracy morons.

[@LogoBallers]

I'm on Facebook like all day.. so I'm going to disagree. Although I would agree that it may lean one way. But I'm on Facebook for groups that I'm extremely active in. I buy and sell frequently.. if it weren't for groups I wouldn't be on Facebook. I actually left Facebook for about 2-3 years straight prior to coming back.

[@trueblade3636]

'Education' is *not* the same as 'stupidity' There are a lot of 'stupid' people who vote Democrat, as there are a lot of stupid' people who vote Republican There are a lot of stupid Democrats as stupid Republicans on Facebook

[@daniellu8104]

best use of video fade out transition i've seen in explainer videos

[@ersindeger5155]

Awesome analysis and summary of what went on with 2016 versus how it may reflect to 2020. Thank you!!

[@mborok]

Polls may be wrong. Doctors sometimes misdiagnose. If you have to predict an outcome, whether of an election or your health, following the experts is still the only sensible option.

[@SrikanthSivaramakrishnan]

Kudos to fivethirtyeight for taking the time to provide all this context so the viewers are better educated. This was really missing in 2016.

[@Weimaraners]

Thanks for the info 👍

[@EwanPB]

I couldn't pay attention to what the reporter was saying, I was too distracted by the lack of lenses in his glasses.

[@leewaters5949]

I can't pay attention to these comments that don't understand wearing glasses, I'm too distracted that the commenters don't understand wearing glasses.

[@zycosi]

Love this host and his geeky enthusiasm, good stuff!

[@burtwonk]

FINALLY a video that helps me understand what happened in 2016

[@realkekz]

This is a polling agency doing damage control "NOOOO DON'T LOSE FAITH IN US"

[@naturalsquasher]

Thanks foe making the video. It was very informative.

[@benoitsenet7479]

Hi! Sorry if the answer of that question already exists somewhere but, did you change the education average factor for this election in the methodology? Thanks

[@jeffchao]

Thanks for breaking it all down in an easy to digest manner! People love pointing out that the polls were "wrong" but the reasons stated in the video show that even though the most likely prediction didn't occur, looking at the polling data is still useful!

[@sammyswagdistrict]

This dude's style of speaking is very wholesome

[@sarajobs9606]

Good analysis, nice presentation, but what’s the final prediction for 2020 ?

[@mariamahmad8513]

This was super interesting and informative. Thanks! The biggest question left unanswered: Are your glasses just REALLY clean or are there no lenses?

[@designgirl3556]

There are no lenses. You can see light reflecting off the nose bridge. If there were lenses you'd be able to see light reflecting off those too.

[@theresashult2754]

Fivethirtyeight is my go to for politics (and I don't really like politics). If I have to pay attention, and 2016 gave me whiplash as I pulled my head out of the sand - this is the best way to learn. There is so much more to politics than just numbers.

[@Fix_It_Again_Tony]

This is an excellent video. Thanks for the history less and the context.

[@bajabret60]

As a former card dealer, I understand odds as they relate to physical chances of something happening - such as a specific card being dealt. But, I confess I do not understand how one creates odds based on a poll. I do hope the polls are reasonably accurate this election, though.

[@TheJaboogie]

I loved the fade out disclaimers effect

[@jaypark6960]

These graphics look like so much work. Kudos to the visuals team

[@mrkeithepop]

This was a good video. Thank you.

[@gregvalentine5516]

This was really helpful, thanks

[@justanaveragetreeg1554]

Loved this video!!

[@cinderball1135]

Polling is an alchemy, rather than a science, but just like economics (whose detractors point out that it's not clean and empirically measurable in the same way as physics and chemistry) it's full of potential insights and revelations. The price you pay is that there *is* always an element of uncertainty. If you're too proud to allow yourself to be wrong once in a blue moon, politics is probably the wrong game to get invested in. I think the problems then, are twofold: people want security (which is impossible), and they want to extrapolate the entire future course of human history from just a few data points. My suggestion to folks nervously watching the polls is this - take them at face value. If a poll says Biden is up 5% in Michigan, he's up 5% in Michigan. It doesn't mean he's guaranteed to win, it doesn't mean he'll 'stay' in that place long-term, and it doesn't mean he couldn't extend his lead. It's just a poll that says he's up 5% in Michigan yo. Don't treat it like it's the whole election, and don't try to extrapolate anything more than it already says.

[@szaszg]

"Polling is an alchemy" - seems to be so in the USA! In many other countries it is far clearer and easier. No voter suppression like in the USA, about 1 polling-station per 10 potential VOTERS just accross the street. 10 Minutes between leaving your house - VOTING - and returning to your home! Americans strive for a voting system like this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@1fissionman]

@@szaszg you're talking about voting. We are talking about polling. The video is literally about polling.

[@leary4701]

@@1fissionman it goes hand in hand as those disenfranchised will surely be less likely to awnser a pollster

[@1fissionman]

@@leary4701 Your pronouncement of that surety is not backed up by any evidence.

[@szaszg]

@@1fissionman OK

[@jonasveland2655]

Really love your website, and really love your channel. But it would be great if you started uploading videos in 1080p or higher! :)

[@ututut77]

def has great camera presence and a good way of conveying information. need him on more for sure #moremehta

[@PrimeSuperboy]

Love the fade out of his voice towards the end lol. It was like the producer was saying, "alright, that's a wrap. Ok Dhrumil, we get it. Ok that's enough. Dhrumil, stop. Will someone stop this man?!"

[@MasterAnagh]

OK THIS GUY GETS KZbin!!!! he should do more of these!!! you're amazing Dhurmil!!

[@jakedavis5375]

I like this guy! Great work man, very informative video.

[@c187rocks]

Great presentation, although I got to ask. Do those frames have lenses in them? How did they get no glare?

[@leewaters5949]

You answered your own question, dude. 1+2=?

[@1Grr8Guy]

"I'm here to explain why you shouldn't give up on polling." (Thinking to himself: Because my livelihood depends on it.)

[@sarahharkins182]

Really good explanation, but now I want a jar of jelly beans.

[@fcalba]

2016 was the result of 2-3 million people who voted 3rd party or millions of others who didn't vote at all.

[@nexttrike1902]

Nice breakdown, thanks

[@76XJK]

Great video!

[@luc4662]

“We’re considering non-polling factor like how the economy is doing”. What? Nate Silver has told that he thinks there’s no good way to use those signals without a huge risk of over-fitting.

[@michaelmatta7069]

Great video! One other thing that is missing from the video is the impact that candidates from third and fourth parties had on the outcomes of the swing states. Also a request: have someone tried to weight the results of the polls to confirm the hypothesis that non-college educated people voting for Trump were indeed the reason why the polls were off? What do the re-weighted polls look like?

[@DanielZajic]

Nice job, Dhrumil, this was well presented.

[@marco.nascimento]

Well explained topic and charismatic guy, awesome!

[@veggiet2009]

I'd like to learn more about this "uncertainty" factor, how you calculate it, and how you are taking the news of current events into account.

[@y1521t21b5]

Great enthusiasm ;-)

[@karwendelman]

Excellent video, thanks very much. One question: At 5:52 Dhrumil says that "some, but not all pollsters have started to weight for education". Can you share which ones did and which didn't? That would really help interpret new polls as they come out. Thanks!

[@srikothur2845]

This is going to sound like a backdoor brag. The fact that I learned a few new things is a testament to the quality of this video.

[@invinciblesummer]

My own personal polling indicates that there will be plenty of clicking of adult beverage glasses happening on election night. Prepare now folks: Decide your beverage of choice now! (Oh, and add a hint of Blue Curacao in it!)

[@1973Hog]

Great job!

[@JonBerry555]

I feel like a lot of people misunderstand the purpose of polls.I may be wrong in this, but everything I've seen indicates that polls are like stats in sports; its a way to track how well your favorite is doing and a method for each campaign to inform their decision making and behavior. Just with more uncertainty than in sports.

[@manh385]

Great way of presentation ...

[@jckorn9148]

Percentage of new voters is also a huge deal. Obama got a ton of the youth to vote for the first time, while Trump got a lot of working class people to vote for the first time. Interesting stuff.

[@landonrobinson1854]

Database Journalist is the coolest new job title.

[@SixtyCobalt]

Well, we'll come back to this on Nov 4th.

[@rebeccaLV]

Mehta is very entertaining without being intentionally humorous. I like that!

[@shawnaschaefer9470]

Mr Mehta, please make more educational videos. This is awesome.

[@ggalaso]

Brilliant explanation!

[@esforza1388]

good video, they should show this in high school stats classes

[@matthewabernathy453]

What can you say? Hindsight is 2020

[@bryanseifstein2786]

It means if the polls don’t show a plus 10 toward one candidate they show its a 50/50 toss up.

[@tg3470]

Excellent video.

[@odingnarles]

That was surprisingly pleasant Thank you

[@jmalko9152]

Very interesting!

[@johnmckay1961]

This was great! Get this new guy on the podcast!