FlyWire Accident Review PA 30 N8357Y Loss of Control Inflight

FlyWire Accident Review PA 30 N8357Y Loss of Control Inflight
/ flywire
FlyWire is about exploring flight and the freedom this incredible experience brings us on a personal level. Flying has always captured the imagination and excitement of living life to its fullest. Hi, I'm Scott Perdue. In a former life I flew the F-4 and F-15E, more recently I retired from a major airline. I've written for several aviation magazines over the years, was a consultant for RAND, the USAF, Navy, NASA as well as few others, wrote a military thriller- 'Pale Moon Rising' (still on Kindle). But mostly I like flying, or teaching flying. Some of the most fun I had was with Tom Gresham on a TV show called 'Wings to Adventure". We flew lots of different airplanes all over the country. Now with FlyWire I want to showcase the fun in flying, share the joy and freedom of flight and explore the world with you. Make sure you subscribe if you want to go along for the ride!
#Pilot #Fly #Flying #Fly yourself #aviation #FlyingTraining #LearntoFly #adventure #military aviation #aviationhistory
Website: www.flywire.online
Merch Links: T-Shirts, My Novel: www.flywire.online/merch
Twitter: @FlyWireO / flywire.online
Facebook: / flywireonline

[@cgirl111]

Flew a lot with my dad in his Cherokee and he'd be damned if he was going to book a hotel. He carried two sleeping bags in the back and I spent many a night under the wing waiting it out for favorable conditions. I can still hear him saying "well we can sleep on top of the ground or under it - up to you".

[@77thTrombone]

That's a funny juxtaposition after just finishing Scott's review. Scott says "book a hotel." Your dad says, "No way!" and heads to the plane. As one wonders how to handle the stubborn man who throws caution to the wind, sleeping bags come out of the airplane and get tossed to the ground. Moral: how the letter of the law may be ignored, while keeping the spirit of the law is in complete compliance!

[@cgirl111]

@@77thTrombone You misread or I didn't express myself clearly. What I was trying to say was my dad absolutely wouldn't fly if weather was between one of our stops and us and just rolled out the bags but would not pay for a hotel. We slept at our waypoint airport.

[@gretchenlittle6817]

@@cgirl111 I think the trombone did understand your comment, and was only saying that your Father followed Scott's advice -- except for the hotel part.

[@77thTrombone]

@@cgirl111 that's _exactly_ how I got it! I came out off Scott's review all somber-faced, and the way the story of your dad starts, it seems to put Scott's rule in the trash can. Except your story doesn't do that! It only puts the _hotel_ part in the trash can.

[@cgirl111]

@@gretchenlittle6817 Ah - got it. My dad was a strange guy. He could afford to own the plane and maintain it but would not spend a penny on what he thought was a stupid expense like a hotel when the grass or an open ended hanger was sitting right there. He would tell my Mom we were going here or there and it would either take 3 days or 10 days, he didn't know. This was in the late 60's and weather information was much less. I can remember a lot of times we took off, flew for an hour and returned and then slept under the wing. It's remembered as good times.

[@marvinsannes9397]

I was motoring the 38' Serina sailboat west in Juan de Fuca on a bright sunny morning, into a dense fog bank, and suddenly could not see the mast 10' or the water 6' to my left. 5 knts and I slow to 2 knots and cannot believe the compass - I begin turning to port, then back, then turn again, then notice my heart rate, stop the boat, run up and drop the anchor in 30' and go below and make some tea, and feel my heart slowing down. Cannot imagine that freak-out at 200mph. Sad.

[@MalcolmRuthven]

Scott, you really said it all at the end. If you don't have an instrument rating, stay out of IMC, period. I also can't imagine flying that high-performance plane, with the willingness to fly "high", without having oxygen on board at least for the pilot. Both items are an invitation to disaster.

[@TerribleFire]

Even with an instrument rating unless you planned to go IFR stay out of IMC.

[@daszieher]

@@TerribleFire true, but that is more a legal aspect. An untrained pilot will kill himself and his passengers in IMC.

[@Codehead3]

@@daszieher Even with an IFR certificate, you have to stay current. It’s a perishable skill.

[@daszieher]

@@Codehead3 That is absolutely true

[@alancowell7474]

'is

[@zidoocfi]

Thanks Scott, condolences to the family and friends of the 3 onboard. I agree that this has all the telltale signs of a loss of control by a VFR pilot in the clouds, and on that note I want to emphasize that as long at pilots keep the bank angle at or near zero, everything else SHOULD be fine. Loss of bank control is the "first domino" that starts to topple all of the other dominoes. First the airplane banks, then the pitch angle goes down because of the bank, the airplane accelerates as it dives, then the pilot tends to pull up and that's when the structural failure happens. If pilots would keep the bank angle under control, the first domino doesn't fall and neither do any of the others.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Thanks Dean and you are exactly right!

[@slartybarfastb3648]

Every pilot has an artificial horizon. If everything else is going badly, at least get wings level. Good advice I heard for VFR pilot caught in IMC is: wings level, pitch for level flight, throttle for 10° flaps, extend 10° flaps, heading by gentle rudder input. Declare emergency. Wings level above all else.

[@zidoocfi]

@@slartybarfastb3648 I agree with the good advice EXCEPT for the flaps. I would NOT put flaps down for a VFR pilot in IMC. It adds risk because for most airplanes, the certified load factor (G-force tolerance) goes down with any flap deployment. In other words, normal category airplanes are certified to 3.8 positive G's with the flaps up, and many are only certified to about half that if the flaps are down, though this does vary from one aircraft to another. The positive case for putting flaps down is that they add drag, but the amount of drag added with only about 10 degrees of flaps is very small. On balance, adding flaps adds some risk for little or no benefit, and that's why I would NOT put flaps down in that case.

[@slartybarfastb3648]

@@zidoocfi This would probably make a good video in it's own right. What is the safest, most stable procedure for a VFR pilot trapped in IMC? I definitely can't say for certain. Introducing flaps has the purpose of slowing the situation down. The pilot has a target airspeed which may only be achieved by bringing attention back to the instruments where they belong. Flap extension speed can't be ascertained while looking outside for a hole in the clouds. The point is to make the plane slow and stable. Trim wheel, throttle and slight rudder become the primary controls.

[@MalcolmRuthven]

@@FlyWirescottperdue Long ago, the 1965 Mooney Mark 21 I flew had as standard equipment "Positive Control", a wing-leveler "autopilot" that was always on unless you pressed and held down a button on the control wheel. I wonder how many lives it saved.

[@davidstrahle9523]

After 50 years of flying and reviewing thousands of these types of accidents we must now force flight schools to tell the truth to all VFR pilots that you’re not a pilot until you have an instrument rating. A VFR pilot should be labeled an experimental pilot just like we use this label on experimental aircraft to warn people of potential limited abilities. When I first learned to fly in the 60s and 70s the rule was… “You don’t need an instrument rating, that’s just for airline pilots. Get your commercial license and that’s all you’ll ever need.” Now, we know the truth.

[@davidstrahle9523]

@Jay Hess What you say is also true. Odds are, same trip with the same marginal weather, an instrument rated pilot will be at lease 10 times safer than a VFR pilot. Why? One big reason is inaccurate forecasts. I have numerous example of VFR TAFS predicting no rain with a squall line just miles away and is one of the reasons I developed DATALINK NEXRAD from my initial research papers back in 1969. Please search KZbin for... "Datalink Concept to Cockpit". After development and deployment of the Datalink system, everyone I worked with were surprised at how extensively bad/dangerous weather really was after seeing the system as a whole. It shocked all of us. I tell all my students, "See that stuff up there in the air?...they share the same airspace with you and you better know how to fly through it."

[@Maynardtkrebs]

Kathryn’s full of instrument rated and CFIs buying the farm. A rating does not guarantee that the pilot will be actually flying the aircraft when and how the physics demand. The key is using knowledge and training to recognize and react accordingly. Arrogance or over-confidence will not be a substitute. In those last few seconds of life, the reality becomes crystal clear.

[@jiyushugi1085]

Really, so many of these clowns start strutting around as soon as they get their private. Wouldn't be so bad if they only killed themselves.....

[@badmonkey2222]

Imagine the terror this guy put his family through that whole flight.

[@F84Thunderjet]

An instrument rating is great IF the pilot flys with reasonable frequency and maintains instrument proficiency by strict adherence to scheduled recurrency training at least twice a year.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Absolutely!

[@tgmccoy1556]

I knew a business man who had a turbo Navajo. He flew the thing just like the twin Comanche in this You Tube. He ended up in the North Cascades . This was back in the 80's if you have the rating use it! If not get one or sell the aircraft.

[@skyking7477]

There’s so much talk of the importance of an instrument rating, which I basically agree with, however even more important is IFR . To me, that’s the deal breaker. I fly a Twin Comanche I’ve for owned for 30 years, am commercial and instrument rated, but no long fly enough to even pretend I’m capable of flying in conditions such as this pilot was. It takes a tremendous amount of effort to keep a twin Comanche and the avionics updated and current, and even more effort to keep myself current. I wish there was more emphasis on competence in various instrument conditions. Keeping IFR legal is relatively easy, but remaining safe, confident and current is a whole different level. Like Scott stated, a night or two in a motel, or a bus ticket, is much preferable to the lousy outcome this family experienced. A lesson for all, and reinforcement for myself. Thanks Scott.

[@thomasfx3190]

I get that an instrument rating would have saved the day here, but an IFR rating is tough to get and tougher to maintain proficiency with. Army Blackhawk pilots are trained minimally on IFR approaches but rarely fly in low visibility or heavy weather. Vietnam UH-1 pilots had zero IFR training and had to just get vectors from a field with radar.

[@MachTuck]

As always, very interesting accident analysis Mr Perdue.

[@jhaedtler]

Very well thought out comments! Thanks.

[@FutureSystem738]

Heartbreaking to hear of these loss of control accidents. ADSB shows us much that we would never have known about in the past, though the outcome is the same. Why do people keep pushing the limits? Thanks Scott, another good summary. 👍

[@davecat1458]

I cringe when thinking of the utter horror this family experienced. Reminds me of an accident near Bryan Tx in 2011 wherein a family perished. Weather related as well.

[@FutureSystem738]

It’s been happening basically forever, yet people just don’t learn, and keep pushing the limits. The difference is that with ADSB data we now get a bit more of a look at the minutes preceding such an event. Apart from that, this accident could have happened ten, twenty, thirty or forty or more years ago. What a tragic waste.

[@WolfPilot]

Excellent video as usual Scott! I agree with some of the other commenters, I think state of mind and attitude played into this.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

I think you’re right!

[@paulpochan9631]

Thanks Scott...!!!

[@arthurpearson3407]

From day one, one of the things we try to instill in pilots is to recognize your limitations regardless of the time in your logbook. As you said Scott, it might be legal but is it smart to do or are you capable. I’ve known a number of pilots that did not heed that and became smoking holes.

[@alrivas1477]

Been flying bout 35 years. Averaging round 50 hours year. No instrument. Only fly when sky is purdy. No problem.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Good plan!

[@ke7cat]

Well spoken, as a former AC investigator, hard truths of a mistake typically end in loss of lives

[@accessiblenow]

Good review. Thks.

[@dkao5826]

Thanks!

[@simco75248]

My father was an active naval aviator toward the end of WW2 and 27 years in reserves thereafter. He always put your rhyming saying about flight delays as, “If you have the time…fly!” It took me awhile to figure out that riddle, but how true.

[@leifvejby8023]

We say "time to spare, go by air!" Just the same, thanks!

[@freakfly23]

I flew vfr into imc with my wife onboard. Luckily, my father was my instructor and gave me way more than the minimum time under the hood. I now hold an instrument rating.

[@jmp.t28b99]

I never risk the ones I love for any reason on a flight. Discretion is the better part of valor.

[@tayvahstraub6007]

I was close friends with Regan…miss her so much.

[@PA30Pilot]

PA30 owner. These machines are capable of distance traveling, and weather changes are more likely to be encountered. I appreciate how you presented sound advice in this case.

[@par5eagles975]

With a great PA-30 channel too!

[@FutureSystem738]

The PA30 is a fabulous aeroplane. I did my initial instrument training in one in the mid 70s, eventually leading to a 30k+ hour airline career flying up to and including 747s- yet I still have fond memories of the PA30. Sweet aeroplane, but must be flown sensibly and with respect for it’s limits. Flying into cloud without an instrument rating is waaay outside those limits, sad.

[@jefferyyounce5372]

Good analysis

[@fhuber7507]

I hear/read: "Loss of control in flight" and I keep expecting to hear/read about broken control cables. But that is almost never what caused it...

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Almost never....

[@trumpsmessage7777]

I know a former airline pilot that always uses oxygen above 10 thousand feet when flying his K-35 Bonanza.

[@FutureSystem738]

Wise man!

[@stevespra1]

Thank Scott. Let's think about "the moment the pilot lost control"... If a normally aspirated PA-30 is climbing at 1000 FPM to 16,000', it's in a severe updraft. The 4500FPM descents are severe downdrafts. He was in or too close to a thunderstorm.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

The 4500 FPM was in a climb, you can see the data points in the video. I don't discount the possibility he was in up and downdrafts. There is no radar record of a thunderstorm at the date/time/location of the accident. So, I can't make that assumption.

[@SIGINT007]

Air is a fluid and is constantly moving, even nowhere near a storm…would be interesting to get a meteorologist to review low and mid level dynamics in the area at the time of the crash

[@stevespra1]

Thunderstorm was the wrong word for sure but if the data is correct, it seems like severe upset anyway. In the end, I agree. This pilot was in the wrong situation at the wrong time. It is better to be on the ground, wishing you were in the air than to be in the air wishing you were in the air. I've been in both situations and neither is much fun but I wish the decision to wait it out would have been made so this great family would be alive today.

[@kevinbarry71]

Very good analysis. In my opinion it is absolutely reckless to be flying this airplane without an instrument rating.

[@MachTuck]

Totally, plus normally aspirated engines, plus no O2, plus climbing as high as 16K trying to stay in VMC

[@ajayray4408]

One thing that seemed a little surprising to me was that the airplane appears to have passed the worst of the weather, based on the weather radar plot overlying the map of its track. There are many reasons why that might be so, however, and one might be that the weather was rapidly deteriorating. In order to see if that might be the case, I went to NOAA's archive of weather radar maps (see below.) 16:38 CDT is 21:38 UTC, but entering that for 3-17-2022 showed the precipitation mostly to the north of the crash site. Backing it off one hour, however, showed a radar map very similar to the one on the FlightAware screenshot. I assumed I had made an off-by-one error in converting the time, and maybe I have, but I tried again and checked with a couple of time-conversion websites, always getting the same answer. If the weather was as shown by the NOAA archive for that time, it might explain the flight's zigzag path immediately prior to the crash, as the pilot sought a route through the weather blocking his path. As to whether the storm was developing rapidly, the hour leading up to 21:38Z and beyond shows the precipitation strengthening slowly, but it is still almost all greens, so I agree that strong convection does not seem likely. I will not give an URL for the NOAA archive, as doing so sometimes seems to cause comments to be removed, but if you search for NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Radar Maps Archive you will find it. Currently, they are having problems with the underlying maps and only show a minimal one, but the location search works, and hopefully the maps problem will be fixed soon.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Good comments Ray and good research.

[@Bigpeat190]

I’m surprised that an insurance company would write a policy for a multi engine aircraft for a pilot that does not hold an instrument rating. I am a CFI / CFIi / Multi that flys close to 600hrs / year (250hrs/year in a Bonanza A36) and the only rating that decreased my insurance was the initial instrument rating.

[@robertlewis5627]

Why is it a given that this aircraft was insured? The FAA does not require either liability or hull insurance for Part 91 operations. The state I live in (Alaska) does not require insurance for Part 91 operations. I imagine most states have similar requirements (or lack thereof).

[@bernardc2553]

Scott Back earlier in my low time 80's I got into a pickle, to low for radio com (all of my time in Mtns) Had wife,my newborn & brother 172, P/U Rime headed to Cody Wy.then carb ice I'd picked an arrival point then as fast as wx hit me I lost ALL gnd.ref. knowing I DID NOT want to stall it yet NO pwr.I pushed myself outloud A/S bank make standard rate turns total Imc, broke out under deck Eng.pwr returned I was approx 700'agl..head for my spot.PWR LINES O.SIT! I could see Maybe 2mi F.V. & was breaking I'd lost the Ice ,Got good pwr back so headed to Dubois Wyo. Landed @ this unattended potholed field That's where I pulled chunks of seat cover out..wail waiting for the wx & next legs this is only a 1/4 of what turned into a 3 state historic storm no phones no power made national news Wyo.Utah & ID. 4 days later Retuning fro. Billings Id Lost sight of the Tetons Sleeping in plane waiting again ..topped off tanks and..Anchored the plane caught a Connie back to SLC and Yes I'm able to tell the story that 1st FUBAR was Never gonna happen again..as the wx became extremely worse talked to the Capt. we'd broke out @ 26,000 & what a ride getting there..I returned 3 wks later to p/u the 172 . Never have get" home "as a plan stay alive so YOU can tell your stories.

[@Maynardtkrebs]

Scott, nice demo of stretching the glide into a spin. Maybe you could demo what proper recovery of control should look like flying the gauges instead of what this deceased pilot probably did (compare the looks inside and out?). Why and how do vfr only pilots lose control?

[@cclose14111]

Thanks Scott. In addition my GA time, I have spent just north of 400 hours flying hang gliders (recreational and competition) and just shy of 200 flying sailplanes. I have been sucked up beyond cloud base (at 8-14K MSL, especially in New Mexico, West Texas, etc.) with my variometer pegged at 2K/min up, several times. (with no engine) I wonder if the radical, vertical speed flight data points were due to the pilot experiencing rising thermal massed of air while in or near the cloud tops or upwind side. I have both seen this, and climbed the upwind side of huge cumulus clouds using this technique. Just some food for thought.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

It's possible.

[@kiwikeith7633]

Listening to stories like this, I really keep thinking that pilot EGO and temperament caused the crash. Some of those huge increases and decreases in altitude can be severe turbulence. But also I do know just how problematic can be locating an air-strip when flying low in poor viz and in rough weather. Even if we know where the strip is meant to be, problems come thick and fast. We don't identify the strip in time to make a stable approach, compounded with drift in turns etc. That was an education for me on a student solo - but being ? chicken ? I turned and headed out and home. I believe we all have faced a similar learning experience, so why are we still alive. I put that down to the personality and EGO of the pilot, because he wants to get through. Maybe he wants to be the one that boasts that he or she got through when all others tied down somewhere and spent the night. Weren't his family with him in this crash? Maybe he felt the need to show that he can always prevail? It is possible. Also regarding hypoxia, not everyone has a normal blood oxygen. I know of passengers who felt off in a 172 at 7,000' altitude. So perhaps the allowances in the law and rules could in some cases be terribly excessive? It is still hard to imagine how anyone could hold a license, and who has had normal tests, and flown in simulated IFR could still push on into such conditions. Being under that hood should prove to any single pilot who is not fully equipped and not properly expert, just how death is sitting with them.

[@zackriden79]

Depends on your health how you feel at high DA , worst shape your in amps the affect

[@dougschwieder3627]

Now that you've mentioned something that almost nobody else ever does, ego and temperament, I agree. Since I'm not the kind of person who ever had the kind of confidence and therefore ego that pilots who end up like this have, I believe that for a lot of them, they are simply always in control. Whether it's of other people or their own lives, so that when they are faced with a situation where the wise option is to admit that you can't control the outcome, they just don't even consider that possibility because they are used to always succeeding. It's not just a "bad decision" here or there, it's a habit of always doing what you want and getting what you want and living to tell about it up until the time comes when they don't live to tell about it. I think I can see this because I'm describing someone who is the opposite of myself. I wanted to be a pilot when I was young but I talked myself out of it not because I was afraid of flying, but because in retrospect, I never had any confidence that I could succeed at anything I tried, including landing any entry level job requiring no special skills.

[@slartybarfastb3648]

As a skydiver, I can sometimes notice the early effects of hypoxia after only a moment at 13,500. Not so much on a normal climb and jump run. But if I'm one of the last out of the Twin Otter or Skyvan and for some reason we need to circle back for a second or third pass, it begins to creep in a little. Maybe it's more noticeable while standing in a turning airplane than a pilot would feel. After unusually long (5-10 minutes) jump run attempts for clouds or hesitant/slow jumpers I'm happy to get out and down to thicker air.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Thanks Slarty.... don't forget your towel.

[@wolfgagger]

Comanche Airframe had its wings stressed to Over 7.5Gs, this guy was moving... RIP

[@bluetickfreddy101]

“Mans Gotta Know His Limitations”

[@jimhuskyflying]

Every time I read about unintended flight into IMC followed by the loss of control in a sophisticated GA aircraft I wonder why there isn’t more emphasis on autopilot use in the transition training for a more sophisticated aircraft. I agree with everything you said, but think of the different outcome if the autopilot had been used for the descent. If autopilots were used more consistently, we would have a lot fewer of these type of crashes including JFK jr. & Kobe. I always used autopilots when doing IFR approaches, because it lessen the likelihood of me getting behind the aircraft.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

We don't know if this airplane has autopilot. If it did the pilot may have been able to survive. But that ignores the issue... why get into that situation in the first place?

[@dermick]

APs have their limits as well - unfortunately some disconnect when things get too confusing for them. It's not a "get out of jail free" card. ☹

[@robertlewis5627]

In many older GA aircraft (such as a Twin Comanche) the autopilot would be inoperative. There are many, many components and wiring harnesses and the system requires frequent repair and reconditioning of the individual components for everything to work properly.

[@monsenrm]

It’s funny that with a little simple trigonometry you can approximate airspeed. It is the ArcTan of Descent speed with ADSB speed. You could even add in the current winds if you wanted even more accuracy. I am surprised some website wouldn’t do that since it would give a little more info.

[@kewkabe]

ADSB outputs ground, indicated and true airspeed, so it depends on your source of "ADSB speed" if you need to convert.

[@monsenrm]

@@kewkabe ADSB reports ONLY ground speed from GPS.

[@bombsaway6340]

Don’t know if oxygen deprivation was an issue with this pilot. As you know, individual physiology plays a role in TUC. However, VMC pilots, entering IMC, and subsequent loss of control is a recurring problem. As a CFI, I’ve taken to doing a little hooded flight on every BFR. For VFR pilots an occasional bit of hooded flying, with a safety pilot, is a great way to keep up your “instrument” skills…useful in inadvertent IMC scapes. Always tragic to hear stories like this one.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Good idea!

[@garycharpenter543]

Scott, your first video indicated heavy rain in the area. With the high both up and down vertical rates, do you think there is any possibility of him running into convective activity?

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

The radar looks like moderate rain, but not convective.

[@erictaylor5462]

One thing VFR pilots should do is take some instruction on basic instrument flying. You don't have to be IFR qualified to use your instruments to keep your wings level and use your radio to get help. I don't understand how a CFI can allow their student to carry out a cross country solo flight without knowing how to orient the plane in space without looking outside. It's not that hard. Vertigo is quite common in IMC, especially if you lose outside references without warning. It even happened to my dad. He was VFR at night over a populated aria. Just as he rolled out of a turn he entered an unseen cloud. He lost sight of the ground and horizon and every sense in his body told him he was in a bank. But he was a CFI and instrument rated with many hours in hard IMC. He looked at his attitude indicator and his bank indicator and both showed his wings were level. He fought the urge to correct the band and after a few seconds popped out of the cloud. The horizon was right where his instruments said it should be though his body was telling him he was in a steep bank. As soon as he could see outside again his vertigo vanished. That's the thing with seat of the pants flying. The seat of your pants is a lying ass. Don't trust it to orient the plane when you can't see outside. Anyone can end up with VFR into IMC. Being prepared for it will save your life and your family's life. Why is basic instrument flying required for a private pilot's cert?

[@jackoneil3933]

Again, good analysis Scott, thanks. I question of there was any evidence of horizontal stabilizer attach failure? I had a PA-30 back in the late 80's, and recall several articles and an FAA report about flutter and stablator failure on Comanches. I seem to real that Aviation Consumer magazine had an article comparing airframe failures of V35's and PA-30s in over-stress accidents and that in Comanches, the stabalator was a likely first failure point at about 250 to 300kts at what was calculated to be as little as 3Gs. In a couple of V35 high-speed / High G airframe failures, they concluded that about 6Gs at around 300kts the first failure point was the cabin door which which caused the pilot to rapidly unload back pressure to about -3 to 5 Gs causing the V stabs to deform downward, and a negative G main spar failure. In those incidents the V-Stabs remained attached along with the elevators. In a couple of Comanche incidents I seem to recall a stabalator hinge failure resulted in loss of control. There's a interesting look NASA video of PA-30 H-Stab flutter. AirBoyd has it posted as 'Aeroelastic Flutter'. I seem to recall that if stabalator hinge bearing or cables in a Comanche have slight play, Aeroelastic Flutter can occur around 200kts (or less) and above 250kts can result in rapid failure.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

I expected a flutter related inflight breakup, the wings tell a different story.

[@jackoneil3933]

@@FlyWirescottperdue Seems reasonable if the wings failed due to positive loading, but I was wondering if stabalator hinge assembly failed (Possibly due to flutter) if that could have caused a pitch-up. When I was flying a Twin Comanche, I recall looking at how that hinge attach assembly was designed , and trying to get an idea of what might cause it to fail, and what would happen if it did, and I have a vague recollection of pitch-up being one possibility if it failed.

[@gawebm]

I understand the oxygen/altitude rules but some of us are way more sensitive than average. If I get above 11,000 or so i start getting that "Wow, I'm a great pilot and everything is beautiful" feeling. I've learned to watch for and recognize this as the first sign of hypoxia for me. I know some people react differently, but this calm feeling I get is very deceptive. If someone wasn't aware, and this happened to them for the first time it, would be so easy to keep climbing until you past out. I guess I'm below average on the hypoxia scale. I do wonder if some of these accidents are with people like me who seem to have a lower tolerance and blindly trust in the FAA minimums.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

It is possible.

[@imaPangolin]

Up and downdrafts in the clouds? I’ve done 4000 ft a minute at 14000 feet in a tomahawk. But I was instrument rated on an ifr flight plan. Emergency declared. Obviously no oxygen - no hypoxia.

[@skycop56]

Loss of control by VFR pilots in IMC is a big killer in GA. It is stressed over and over yet so many pilots succumb to “get home itus” every year. Don’t do it!!!

[@erictaylor5462]

One thing VFR pilots should do is take some instruction on basic instrument flying. You don't have to be IFR qualified to use your instruments to keep your wings level and use your radio to get help. I don't understand how a CFI can allow their student to carry out a cross country solo flight without knowing how to orient the plane in space without looking outside. It's not that hard. Vertigo is quite common in IMC, especially if you lose outside references without warning. It even happened to my dad. He was VFR at night over a populated aria. Just as he rolled out of a turn he entered an unseen cloud. He lost sight of the ground and horizon and every sense in his body told him he was in a bank. But he was a CFI and instrument rated with many hours in hard IMC. He looked at his attitude indicator and his bank indicator and both showed his wings were level. He fought the urge to correct the band and after a few seconds popped out of the cloud. The horizon was right where his instruments said it should be though his body was telling him he was in a steep bank. As soon as he could see outside again his vertigo vanished. That's the thing with seat of the pants flying. The seat of your pants is a lying ass. Don't trust it to orient the plane when you can't see outside. Anyone can end up with VFR into IMC. Being prepared for it will save your life and your family's life.

[@erictaylor5462]

@Vertical Flight Why do you doubt that knowing how to use your attitude indicator would make a difference? It's not that hard. Just keep that blue and black ball so it's not tipped over and or mostly blue or black. Frankly, if you can't even do that you have no business flying an airplane. If you are VFR into IMC the most important thing is to keep your wings level, guarding yourself against vertigo (ignoring the sensation you are pitching or banking) and using the radio to call for help. You don't need to file a flight plane, you don't need to know how to set up an ILS or DME approach, you don't need to navigate. All you need to do is keep the wings level and call for help. ATC can read up instructions to shoot an instrument approach if necessary. And it probably won't be. Most likely you'll be given a heading to take you back into clear air where you can return to VFR flying. You'll probably get an FAA review but you can survive that but at least you'll be alive. As to not flying into bad weather, well there is only so much you can do about that. Weather can change very quickly and it doesn't always go as it was forecast. No matter how good your judgment, there is always the possibility of VFR into IMC. If it happens you need to keep your head and remain calm. There is a horrify audio from a VFR pilot who went out of control in IMC. The terror in that call is chilling, but the pilot got ATC in there and was able to save himself.

[@johnfitzpatrick2469]

Happy Easter Scott from Sydney Australia. Is it a standard or regulation to have a qualified A&P aircraft maintenance engineer X.............. at towered and FBO airports? 🧑‍🔧👉

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

No, it’s not in the US.

[@RicViperskylogs]

Great video Side note.. am I ocd or are the hanging documents on the wall slightly off level 🤔

[@richardfitzwell5708]

LOL…they are off-level…and always have been as long as I’ve been watching, but Scott’s a professional PILOT, not an interior decorator…so we shouldn’t care, even if they’re upside down.

[@RicViperskylogs]

@@richardfitzwell5708 haha yeah hes awesome!

[@ke7cat]

Would like to see facts about newly rated IFR pilots and death rates. Because you have a ticket does not mean your able to ride

[@a-fl-man640]

got my multi in a PA 30 in 76 or so. 700$. while shooting touch and goes the gear collapsed as we were rolling down the runway. used the fixed aircraft to get my check ride. examiner was a bit tense. they told us that if you went below vmc the aircraft would invert and go into a unrecoverable flat spin. true? no idea but it stuck in my head.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

I doubt it would invert in a spin. Twins have issues with spins that make a recovery much harder to effect.

[@cfinstr]

Estimated life expectancy for a non IFR rated, current and proficient pilot in IMC is three (3) minutes. From IMC to lawn dart…. Not long at all. Never a reasonable bet…. even if one disregards the obvious lack of oxygen.

[@carlospar3727]

Cfinstr, I believe you're assessment is generous. During my military career, we addressed I-IMC (Inadvertent - Instrument Meteorological Conditions) regularly, training crews to commit to the IMC, pick up an IFR clearance and recover IFR. We all had instrument ratings and flew IFR in our "A models" (they were IFR certified for flight into IMC); however (ironically), the later "D models" we received were certified for IFR flight, but not certified for flight into IMC. We could legally file and practice IFR flight in VMC conditions only! The risk mitigation still required crews to commit to the IMC as an emergency operation and recover using standard instrument approaches (practiced in the simulator as well as the real airframe). Our statistics service-wide indicated the first 30 seconds of an I-IMC event would determine a survivable or fatal outcome for a non-IFR proficient crew (rated and current but not proficient). Departures along the roll axis (longitudinal) were common in spatial disorientation iterations in the simulator for the same population (rated but not proficient). Typically, an I-IMC event during qualification training could easily develop into a simulated fatal event as the instructor would have to take the controls at the seat cushion ingestion point 😏🙄. Under those initial training scenarios the 30 second clock was closer to impact than a decision point.

[@bruceabrahamsen221]

A PA30 is not an aircraft you take to the edge of a stall. They were notorious for stall spin accidents, especially in training.

[@jonoedwards4195]

SAFE SELECT!

[@jiyushugi1085]

These folks have to have read many accident reports describing exactly this scenario, yet they do it anyway. Unfathomable. 16.5 for a smoker or an older person in poor physical condition - one who is also too stressed to be able to breathe properly - is not a good place to be, even for a few minutes. 2 more cents: Having an IFR rating without being fully competent can lure pilots into situations they can't handle. Anyone can pass the IFR check ride with the examiner sitting next to them holding their hand, or fly in IMC with another pilot sitting next to them. Get up there by yourself and it's a whole 'nother ballgame.

[@6StringPassion.]

Question from a non-pilot: If you are VFR rated, and end up in IMC, can't you just use the six basic instruments to maintain your attitude, altitude, speed and heading? Is it that difficult to ignore your own senses (knowing they are flawed) and trust the instrument panel?

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Those are the instruments you need to use... and YES, it is very hard to ignore your own senses. even with a lot of training.

[@Rodhern]

That is a really good question. You will get a wide range of responses. There are a lot of unknowns. I think it is safe to assume that it will some times be easy and some times difficult. The fact that it can be difficult is kind of 'proven' by the associated number of fatalities. That it is some times easy is 'common sense', imagine an aircraft cruising on autopilot entering IMC - I would expect that aircraft to remain upright for at least some time (no changes to aerodynamics or control parameters; maybe icing risk and 'risk of pilot panic' though).

[@shahidahsan6507]

@@FlyWirescottperdue I can do this really well in MS flight simulator, I am sure in the air its a whole different thing.

[@bernieschiff5919]

@@shahidahsan6507 In real IFR, there is convective activity (up and down) in clouds, and your brain can tell you the airplane is turning, and /or descending and turning, you have to ignore what's outside, and focus on what your instruments tell you.

[@kewkabe]

@@shahidahsan6507 I think that's an interesting topic. I wonder if being an avid MS flight simulator enthusiast can actually be beneficial for a basic PPL, at least for handling inadvertent flight into IMC. I think it was for me. In Flight Simulator of course you're always feeling 1g no matter what the aircraft is actually doing, and you get used to just following the instruments to line everything up. After 15 years of avid flight simming I got my PPL (not instrument rated) and my instructor would scold me to look out the window, not down (as you usually do in Flight Sim). But the couple times the past 20 years I found myself in sudden IMC, I had no problem turning back straight and level despite the turbulence and disorienting g-forces, and funny cloud layers out the window, by just following the attitude indicator like I did all those years with MS Flight Simulator. If I had never known MSFS I could have easily spun into the ground.

[@zackriden79]

So real question if you can buy A light twin good chance you have some money and your traveling is your main mission, given that info you can’t afford a ifr rating ??

[@markmaki4460]

I do not know if this is the case here, but i have always wondered if pilots who also fly computer flight simulators tend to become overconfident.

[@Av-vd3wk]

Possible iced over wing, causing stall/spin?

[@rrknl5187]

Not likely. I flew a single Comanche (250) for about 10 years, lots if IMC. One fine day I was cruising at 16,000', in and out of clouds, picking up ice and had about 3/4" on the wings. It handled about the same as always, even with a normally aspirated carbureted 250HP engine, it had no problem maintaining 16,000'. It was about 10 knots slower though. The Comanche always handled ice well, I imagine the twin had similar wings so it should be ok in ice as well.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

I seriously doubt it. Watch the video.

[@megadavis5377]

Anyway you slice it, it was a terrifying ride on the way down. For the life of me, I cannot understand the logic of those who, for months or years on end, attempt to use their airplanes for dependable, timely cross-country travel without possessing an instrument rating. It's like trying to drive a car that has three tires and worn out, threadbare donut.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Very true!

[@tomedgar4375]

An instrument rating is not a replacement for good judgement . Been flying VFR cross country in my Comanche for years but never when I have a deadline to be somewhere.

[@chuckschillingvideos]

I'm sure lots of folks will correct me here, but...I find it completely baffling that a multi-engine rated pilot wouldn't also have an instrument rating.

[@dannyfowler7055]

Such a sad ending, and while it’s certainly in bad taste to mention, he and his family must have been terrified for those last few minutes of their lives. What in the world possesses anyone to put their loved ones in such a high risk situation?

[@77thTrombone]

Um, denial. "Can't happen to me."

[@NihongoGuy]

Human decision making can be flawed by so many factors. "Cant happen to me" or "get there itis" or "Since I know this is risky and I'll be careful, I will be alright" ... the list goes on. It affects all aspects of our lives, but the thing is, flying is way less forgiving than most other pursuits. But as you imply with your question - I know I'd never take the risk with my loved ones, I simply wouldnt.

[@julianhoward1161]

@@NihongoGuy Unfortunately with the male of the species, loss of face is a big thing. After all you're clearly 'successful' and a bread winner. I think he would have binned the flight much sooner had he not had his family on board. I wish they'd stop saying that flying is the safest form of travel. It's not, particularly GA, and I'm a recently retired airline pilot. It might still bite me in the a~~!

[@simbatable]

Would lives be saved if everyone was required to be instrument rated or would folks still find ways to fly into situations they aren't prepared for?

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Some lives might be saved, others would continue to take risks.

[@Av-vd3wk]

I wonder if this plane had an autopilot…

[@easttexan2933]

It is simply a case of poor judgement. Pilot was 58 and had been flying for 4 years (as stated on the report page) so, low time pilot, with little real life aviation experience needed. I can remember a couple times in my short pilot career (1965 PPL holder, 750hrs TT, last PIC flight 03/1988) of VFR flight becoming a flight into IMC if continued. I made a 180 and headed back to the airport. My trips were just not that important. I see this phenomenon of proceeding on "like, what could possibly go wrong" into IMC by unqualified pilots and they take their families with them. This just has to stop. Just don't understand this.

[@RMR1]

I understand the following scenario is not this easy at all (if it were, there wouldn't be so many crashes), but I want to understand WHY it's not easy: if a pilot is VFR only and winds up in IMC, why can't they lock eyes on the instrument panel -- AI, altimeter, speed, etc. -- and either fly the plane wings level or descend slowly until departing IMC? Or perhaps a better question is, why DON'T they do this? Is it just that the inner ear's messages to the brain are too powerful to resist? Or is it primarily something else? Or a combination of things?

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

They a re human and have lived their lives using their eyes and inner ear as gyroscopes. Watch my video "Where's the Rock?" and you'll get a better picture.

[@richardfischer9811]

Scott, I think you may be on to something in suggesting toxicology reports for the victims of this crash. I will be interested to see not only the pilot's oxygen saturation level, but also whether he had any carbon monoxide in this system. Flying at 16K or more would almost certainly call for use of the cabin heater. I'm also concerned about oxygen deprivation at the high altitude that the airplane was flying. While the pilot was not too far above FAA altitude regs, we need to recognize that not all humans are equal in their ability to tolerate high altitudes. Was the pilot a smoker ? Did he have any history of lung problems ? How long had the flight remained at relatively high altitude prior to climbing above 16K ? I'm sure you (as I did) witnessed an occasional problem with one of your fellow trainees during your periodic altitude chamber rides.

[@WarblesOnALot]

G'day Scott, Dear oh dear oh deary me ; what a comprehensively thorough-going way to break up an otherwise perfectly serviceable Levitation Machine. One wonders what the pilot was SO very keen on achieving, by invoking the motto of RAF Bomber Command's Pathfinder Force... ("Press On..., REGARDLESS !) ??? "Get-There-itis" & "Target Fixation" are two other terms for what effectively amounts to being Pig-Headed Bloody-minded STUBBORNNESS.... Some people WILL insist on having things all their own way, come Hell or High-Water, even if it be the Death of them ; which might suffice as a worthwhile Epitaph, to Grafitti onto that Pilot's Headstone... Perhaps, possibly, maybe, PROBABLY..., climbing up too high and poking around while attempting to sniff-out a pathway of interconnected Blue Holes between towering Cloudscapes..., was a "clever trick" that this bloke had gotten away with on (several ?) previous occasions ? That sounds like what you have taught me to think of as "Normalisation Of Deviance", which accrues and accretes ; until it finally doubles back, sneaks up, and then kills the foolish Deviant. Easy enough to see in hindsight. Easy enough to relate to, too - after the urgent Ultrasound, and while awaiting the urgent CT-scan, kind of thing (!). Such is life, Have a good one.... Stay safe. ;-p Ciao ! PS, I dunno if I already gave you this tip, but two local (Oz) Channels which are dovetailing in ways which seem to give insights into the Ukrainian Waaauugh(!) which are on a par with those granted by @ward carol interviewing Justin Binks..., are, @Perun Channel...., which was a "Gaming Channel" apparently being run by a Civilian working as a Military Economic Analyst in the field of Systems Procurement..., who has had his Channel "blow up" when he commened posting PowerPoint Presentations analysing the Systemic Economic Effects of deploying and using and losing Units and Equipment on the scale both sides are doing at the moment....; while staying out of everything Tactical and Weapon System Effectiveness related, kinda thing. He's having to start a new Channel to hive-off all his old Gaming Videos onto, because his Ukraine Analyses are going-off so well (!). The other one is @hypo-historical history Channel.... Who has a long scroll of things like 1 or 2.5 hour-long brilliant Doccumentaries into the Battle of Milne Bay, another one on Lae, another one on the Kakoda Campaign, a couple of hours on the current state of Australian Ddfence Force Policy and Equipment...; so he's quite brilliant at discoursing about all the technicalities of what goes "BANG !" on the Battlefield, currently being struggled over. I realise that you're busy..., but I think you will find those two well worth checking out. ;-p

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Thanks for the pointer!

[@WarblesOnALot]

@@FlyWirescottperdue No worries mate, they're too good to not-share, kinda thing. Stay safe. ;-p Ciao !

[@WarblesOnALot]

@@FlyWirescottperdue PS, My own most recent take on the Eukraineistan situation went up a couple of dayze back, it too may be of interest, (?). "Pop-Psychobabble Analysing (Lilli)Putin's Waaauugh(!)...". Not much in the way of Graphics, but the Rave went pretty well. Every Society needs it's Fool on the Hill, apparently ; else the Beatles would never have sung of the role (?) ! ;-p

[@GLF-Video]

Thanks again for your videos. I’m not a pilot. Could the pilot have used autopilot to plot a course to clear weather? Thanks

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

If he had one and knew how to use it, it might have saved his life.

[@GLF-Video]

The transition from VFR to IFR is a reoccurring theme. So many pilots loose control in IFR. It just doesn’t seem that it would be too difficult to fly straight and level in the direction of improved weather either by using autopilot or watching the instruments. Many times the weather is otherwise fine except for low visibility. Like you have said repeatedly… fly the plane first.

[@robertlewis5627]

Most Altimactic II autopilots in Twin Commanches would be inoperative.

[@PelenTan]

So what you're saying is Darwin stepped in.

[@thompsonjerry3412]

Use the autopilot!

[@robertlewis5627]

Unless this aircraft had an upgraded autopilot, it is highly unlikely the A/P would be functional. The original Altimactic II A/P's in these aircraft require constant repair and overhaul of many components to be functional. It is also unlikely that the owner of this aircraft would have spent 35K-50K to install a new generation autopilot system. (note that I say "system" - there are many components to an autopilot. It's not just one "black box").

[@thompsonjerry3412]

@@robertlewis5627 should not fly in weather without one.

[@rinzler9775]

I dont get why people just dont do an IFR if they want to do trips.

[@kimmme1958]

PS.. got 1400 hrs of banner towiing..

[@maraleitzen1758]

Vfr pilot entering Imc conditions greatly reduces life expectancy.

[@thomasfx3190]

Just awful. He crashed after 21:30 I wonder if he got into the cloud tops but couldn’t see them well and for some reason couldn’t do a 180 and backtrack out.

[@sarahgupton2552]

Not a pilot, but can VFR pilots not still refer to instruments if they encounter IFR? They have speed, altitude and directional indicators. Why do pilots when licensed not know enough to revert to instruments enough to help them? 😢😩

[@jdoe4983]

They can in theory. It’s very disorienting to be in inadvertent IMC even when you are rated and proficient sometimes. In distressing situations people tend to revert back to what they know best - if you have thousands of VFR hours and no actual… you get the point. Also I’m willing to bet he was getting some nasty updrafts and downdrafts as shown by his climb rate at that altitude in that type of aircraft.. it simply isn’t possible.

[@johnmorykwas2343]

Use the term vertical speed, and horizontal speed.

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

John, you made me laugh. If I use flying terms people complain because I'm being technical, if I use pedestrian terms you complain. Thanks for watching.

[@johnmorykwas2343]

@@FlyWirescottperdue your sight is for those educated in the art of flying. They should know aeronautical term. For those that are not educated, they should educated themselves before complaining, about terms they do not know. That's the problem with society today, trying to make square pegs for into round holds. The government famous for that philosophy. Like trying to make pilots/Navs out people who do n

[@johnmorykwas2343]

not qualify.

[@jdoe4983]

What I have noticed is there are plenty of non pilots that watch these videos. No need to be overly technical, even as a pilot, we know what he is referring to even if he doesn’t use by the book terms. It’s the same way I’d talk to my family if they asked flying questions, nobody likes getting an earful of jargon.

[@robertlewis5627]

@@johnmorykwas2343: Hmm..... Maybe you should educate yourself on the difference between the word "sight" and "site".

[@kevinmalloy2180]

So sad. Where is humility in these accidents? Always missing of course, replaced by “I think I can make it,” the six most dangerous words in aviation.

[@davidmangold1838]

Twin Comanche is a hot airplane. Private pilot certificate only, with no instrument rating. What a fool😡. Gettherehomeitis and bad decision not to do a 180* turn to good weather, and trying to out limb weather-bad decision. Dave, 28,000 hours, now flying my 1947 v tail bonanza.

[@hayden6743]

I don’t understand the lack of oxygen. I don’t spent much time above 10 without it. You can’t say it doesn’t make a difference in ADM

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

I didn't say that.

[@geraldmartsy2165]

Scott, any thoughts on Dan Gryders comments on trans AOPA employee Sierra Harrop? Should trans people be allowed to fly or be involved with aviation at all?

[@kimmme1958]

very easy after a pilot did a mistake. wonder why you made it. with your life intact.. In Denmark you can go solo in 5,7 ton airplane if you are 16 of age.. BUT.. driving a car you must be 18..

[@tonydeaton1967]

I am not a pilot. I am befuddled at how pilots, frequently it seems, become disoriented in poor visibility and ultimately crash even with instrumentation to keep you oriented.

[@wallywally8282]

So tragic, so unnecessary😞

[@lessharratt8719]

So maybe he got into a spiral dive, oversped and the aircraft came apart. Turning at a high degree of bank, high power setting, could not hold the nose up and was not peppered to recover. Not much time to react to this and you are VNE.

[@erictaylor5462]

Yet another pilot kills his family with sheer stupidity.

[@tayvahstraub6007]

This is very rude. I knew this family, have some respect.

[@jefferyyounce5372]

The NTSB gets facts before publishing a report. You need to convey your laymen's opinions which are just that.

[@rizzodefrank]

Hundred of miles multi state trip and no i rating is just dumb.

[@JSFGuy]

All right welcome freeloaders... Click that notification bell and let's check it out.

[@neatstuff1988]

Very under powered airplane. You lose an engine on this one and You essentially are a glider to your landing

[@180mph9]

Nothing new, extremely bad decision making, get home itis, complete disregard for safety.

[@travelwithtony5767]

Love how you always insist in the beginning of your videos that you don’t speculate, and then spend the remaining time doing nothing but speculating and second guessing…

[@FlyWirescottperdue]

Thanks for the watching. I love how you miss the facts and what they mean.