Why the Russian Arms Export Industry Is in Deep Trouble

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Not long ago, the Russian arms export industry was prestigious and profitable. Now, deep into the war with Ukraine, it is facing substantial challenges. This video examines how the arms export industry works, both economically and politically. It then connects the actions of the invasion to the pain points Russia is currently facing. We also explore how two competitors in the industry---the United States and China---are trying to take advantage of the situation.
0:00 Challenges for Russia's Arms Industry
1:50 Arms Exports as Policy Influence
9:01 The Virtuous Cycle of Arms Exports
12:19 Russia's Problems: Bad Results and Economic Instability
18:31 Problems Offering Financing
19:57 What's the Damage to Russia?
23:49 How the U.S. Is Taking Advantage
25:21 How China Is Taking Advantage
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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By Ukraine Ministry of Defense:
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[@joaovitormatos8147]

There's a Vietnamese saying: "we fought America for 10 years, France for 10 decades, but China for 10 centuries"

[@terrylyn]

But what does it mean? 🤔 or is it just a saying

[@sortasurvival5482]

​@@terrylyn what do you think it could mean?

[@timviall3480]

I think it's touching on the longer time span inherent in some eastern cultures. Western cultures are ruled by the sentiment of the time and the population. The focus on independence and individuality leads to rapid change and focus on short to mid range goals. Asian cultures tend to have a more traditional/ingrained culture and I would argue they change slower. So the planning is usually a mid long range plan. This can be weird for Western people to understand but it's been my milage

[@gavinthejanitor]

@@timviall3480 pretty sure it's not that deep, it's just saying that china has historically been a threat to vietnam for a very long time and continues to be as their geographic neighbour

[@sortasurvival5482]

@@gavinthejanitor why not both? This comment thread is getting interesting. Id postulate it meant simply that vietnam is still there after all the was, but, aldo that china has been pushing a threat for the longest (maybe impling its might).

[@wtywatoad]

Imagine the buyer’s remorse of nations that bought which are now apparently inferior weapons, then also discovering that the nation that sold them has a insufficient ability to service, and maintain it’s own supply of the same weapons.

[@kartikeyatiwari2502]

I mean if NATO arms were really that strong then we should have seen Ukraine sitting comfortably in Crimea with thrit bradleys and Leopards

[@katieee4915]

@@kartikeyatiwari2502 quantity is a quality on its own... besides you cant forget that most nato stuff in ukraine is typically fairly old stuff and it cant be used the way its designed to be used, under full air supremacy

[@kartikeyatiwari2502]

@@katieee4915 all I hear are excuses

[@katieee4915]

@@kartikeyatiwari2502 lmao

[@katieee4915]

@@kartikeyatiwari2502 russia is in a stalemate against one of the poorest country in europe, and nato is not at war with them, they are also supported by iran, nk, china. where is your excuse for them blowing up in the thousands for no gains

[@PakBallandSami]

Note:The fact that many of these export goods are actually updated versions of Soviet machinery and systems poses a common weakness, and the need to replace them with newer systems is becoming more and more urgent. It is likely that the Su-35 fighter export market will contract by the middle of the 2020s. The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet approved the light fighter MiG-35 for use in India, which was one of the countries that Russia had hoped to sell before the French Rafale won the contract.

[@robertcuellar4132]

Ok u don't think it's the war hungry American lobbiest who owns republicans and democrats and want to dominate the world arms market who threatened world leaders of sanctions if they buy Russian hardware

[@u2beuser714]

​​​@@robertcuellar4132 He didnt say its junk though only that they will become obsolete if they dont keep up with tech. F-16 is from the 1970s its not junk neither the abrams which is from 1980s same with russian equipment , its not their age but the tech they can use in them

[@mtf_savage_beasts2565]

Russia and Israel Approve all weapon sales to India, Russia wants to sell Su 57 to India and Mig 35 already Participated in India MRFA deal.

[@denisoko8494]

The MiG design bureau and its factory are bankrupts for years, all MiG assets are consumed by the Sukhoi corporation, so no more new MiG planes, old MiG planes maintenance only!

[@spxram4793]

I thought India refused the SU-35 because the russians did not want to license all tech for local production - or was it the SU-57 - ... yes, the market will contract. Recently, US built the 1000th F-35, so the 4th gen planes get less and less important.

[@Chuck_Hooks]

Going down faster than a Russian AWACS.

[@NLTops]

Sinking faster than the Russian Black Sea fleet.

[@unoriginalname4321]

Does radar work underwater?

[@simonmay1671]

​@@unoriginalname4321 Radar system has simply been upgraded to Sonar

[@Stickyman61]

Lol 😆

[@NM-wd7kx]

Radar systems so effective they can even find stealth submarines.

[@casbot71]

Smaller countries that have gone all in on the Russian military ecosystem now have to worry that they won't be an effective deterrent against foreign rivals. If you have a historic rival that's using Western weapons, the estimates of the relative balance of power have suddenly changed. And that will not only affect the rivals' calculations on _could they win a conflict,_ but also your own Militaries morale. Your troops "know" that their Russian weapons are no match for a good Western equivalent. So in the game of brinkmanship and aggressive negotiations, Countries that are equipped with Russian gear may feel that they have to back down against a neighbour that now feels a lot more confident.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

You forgot a point probably that majority of Russian arms is just Soviet one. It's basically like you had a Mac book so it's logical for you to get iPhone, because ecosystem. But iPhone is crap and the seller likes to for some reason use it as leverage. He could stop updating it or you have to wait to long for it

[@City1Tiger]

Western tanks are crap

[@hohetannen4703]

What? Lol.

[@conroc01]

Vatnik salty cope. Lol

[@wnose]

@@hohetannen4703 Yes, only Russian tanks have SUPERIOR turret ejection systems, so tank operators can become glorious cosmonauts.

[@casbot71]

There may be a good market for third party maintenance of Russian military equipment. Russia is no longer in a position to service foreign customers as they need everything for themselves. And Russia has shown itself to be a unreliable provider. Former Warsaw countries might be well set up to capture this market. They have experience with servicing and upgrading legacy Russian equipment. Modifying them so they can be integrated with Western gear and maintenance is a lot cheaper than having to replace every item in your inventory.

[@Reddsoldier]

This is exactly the role I see Ukraine filling in the post-war environment. What better way to upgrade your old Russian gear than with combat proven upgrades produced by a country who has just as much experience in building and upgrading soviet hardware as Russia and whose variants have successfully propagandised as successful weapons systems unlike their russian brethren. Need to replace your BTRs? The BTR-4 has shown itself to be an extremely capable platform. Need to bring your Soviet tanks to NATO standards? Ukraine has produced a bustle autoloading turret armed with a NATO 120 for Soviet designs as a proof of concept already. I see Poland and Czechia bridging things like small arms, thin skinned vehicles and artillery systems, but Ukraine is in a fantastic position for the Heavy stuff if they can get their industry back up post-war.

[@howardmaryon]

There is a highly skilled group of engineers who do an amazing job repairing and refurbishing Russian heavy equipment. Trouble is, they are in Ukraine.

[@gavinthejanitor]

@@Reddsoldier and to add to ukraine's familiarity with soviet equipment, let's not forget that a notable portion of it was designed and/or built in ukraine

[@15425rfggdfc]

Как вы можете делать серьезное оружие, если вы на западе не воевали 80 лет?)))

[@L30n4rdo6]

The National Army of Colombia has some MI 17 helicopters that cannot put into operation because there are not spare parte combina from Russia. If this continues, Colombia and other countries in similar situation will be force to find another provider. Note: The Colombian Army also has UH 60 Blackhawks too.

[@GiR1854]

India is not just frustrated with Russian Arms industry,but she is starting to create a robust defence industry for self-reliance. That means many of the equipment Russia today exports,would eventually be replaced by Indian weapons in future. So,in essence the largest Russian importing country is parallely developing her own Arms industry to emerge as an arms exporting country herself. Just like China.

[@diator2]

india have been "starting" to create a robust defence industry for more than 20 years, somehow they dont get very far..

[@_UCS_SwapnilSahaiSrivastav]

​@@diator2If you would have watched the video carefully, you'd have realised that the gestation period for defence R&D is very long and results generally take decades to show up. In some systems we have already indegenised and have stopped importing, in others we are still working.

[@uku4171]

​@@diator2They are still making good progress. Perun has a video on it.

[@ArendJanV]

Anyone can make Russia’s crap weapons itself.

[@jmsjms2735]

Ever since Ukraine stopped arming Russia, that's why!!! 28% of the Soviet Red Army hardware used to be made in Ukr. It continued until 2014 when all exports were stopped.

[@MrJdsenior]

Another good point.

[@Wesker92ify]

Well thats a fucking lie

[@stephenthomas3085]

@@Wesker92ify From Wikipedia (depending on how far you trust it): ''Ukraine's defense industry was a major part of the Soviet defense industry, responsible for 17% of Soviet defense production and 25% of its scientific research...'' Certainly highly significant.

[@stephengrinkley9889]

Great point

[@Gaetano.94]

​@@Wesker92ifyWhy even comment if you know absolutely nothing about the topic?

[@rogerharris8081]

A litany of complex economic, political and industrial problems. This is not what normal people daily think about. Thanks for trying to help my understanding!

[@Jay.Kellett]

And, 1/2 of Russians don't have indoor toilets. Strange country.

[@russianprincess3673]

This report is untrue ♥️♥️♥️

[@stephengrinkley9889]

Kudos to you for at least being open to learning about this. Geopolitics can be quite complicated, and the average person often rather stay in their little bubble than learning the unbiased ins-and-outs about the things impacting our world today.

[@UGNAvalon]

@russianprincess3673 Your username does little to help your credibility. 😛

[@russianprincess3673]

@@UGNAvalon Dearest Amerikan IMPERIALIST our Russia is now richer than GERMANY. Your 100 % brainwashed with FAKE NEWS N UNTRUTHS N PROPAGANDA. Come visit IMPERIAL RUSSIA see how happy we are n not woke n not divided WE wish you no harm God 1st Always Yuliya beautiful rich White Snow Bunny n Digital Nomad in Eurasia ✝️🇷🇺🐇🐇🐰

[@moseszero3281]

Blaming Russia's military problems on rampant corruption instead of design does not really help the issue. The people building the equipment are likely to corrupt as well. It still results in a bad product being delivered. (Though I would argue that Russian designs are REALLY outdated AND likely have severe quality control problems on TOP of the design issues.)

[@mirjanamladenovic8288]

Kakva gluposti pisete

[@gordowg1wg145]

They're not separate issues - corruption WILL invariable compromise design.

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

​@@gordowg1wg145This one. Biggest example: the AK-12. The Kalashnikov Concern spent a few million dollars in R&D trying and succeeding in making an AK that can do what an M4 does but the MoD look at it and the cost of purchasing it and said "Nyet". Along with rejecting the rifle, they ask the same company to make a "budget-friendly" version for a fraction of that money and use the remainder to update the already 40 year old AK-74...

[@LondonSteveLee]

China has all the exact same issues with corruption - the only thing that will possibly save the west.

[@mnomadvfx]

It's a combination of both, combined with poor training, even worse leadership (as Putin keeps yeeting the more experienced officers out of windows) and low troop morale. While the Ukrainians are moderately well trained, likewise leadership, equipped with fairly recent weapons now and their morale on the whole as defenders of their homeland is pretty high.

[@DJToMyHits]

You and perun doing good work, thanks for everything

[@srenpedersen5862]

Agree. Maby you will like sandbox Too

[@stooge389]

I like Perun's videos, but I have problems with them. They're WAY too long. 30 minutes is about the maximum length video I'm willing to watch from people who aren't renowned experts in their field (Stephen Kotkin, Peter Zeihan, Tony Saich, etc). And, they're only as long as they are because of how absurdly, needlessly repetitive they are. He outlines the points, then goes through them, then expands upon them AGAIN. It's just not a good way to present information via videos. He could cut the video lengths in half and still present all the same content. That said, the CONTENT of his videos is excellent, usually. It's the format that needs work. It's one thing for a livestream to be 60 or 90 minutes, because in that format the audience is interacting with the host. But a video? There's gotta be a very good reason for it to be that long, and frankly, there isn't one.

[@LeonAust]

Perun is actually an Australian University trained expert with tentacles deep within the Australian defence network, highly educated. Anyway what is correct is correct no matter who comes out with it.@@stooge389

[@LipziG3R]

​​@@stooge389The format doesn't doesn't need work, nor is it too long. You just don't like a format that long, which is fine ... But many other do like it exactly the way it is. He himself said multiple times that his videos aren't for everyone, he goes into nerdy details and they still are essentially just long power point presentations. It is just the way Perun wants it and just the way many want to watch it. Not every video can be for everyone. I, for one, skip a lot of Videos that are, for example, sub 30 minutes, since they just can't go into enough detail with some complex themes. That doesn't mean these videos need to change... I love listening to someone nerd out about some stuff they're interested in. The longer the better, for my taste.

[@kingace6186]

That part

[@CaptainDangeax]

Being French, I'm happy my little country is able to surpass russia in arms exports

[@brankosavic632]

Ma koja francuska

[@captainnemo8072]

That's because France don't use American components in their hardware

[@Max-nn4ud]

“My little country” brother your little country was the center of Europe and the military boogieman for most of recent modern history

[@sammiemakki9339]

Russia holds 16% of global arms exports. France holds 11% of global arms exports. We don’t know if its “able to surpass”, but good job nonetheless

[@CaptainDangeax]

@@sammiemakki9339 You should watch the video and get your information right before posting, you're embarrassing yourself.

[@gustavmeyrink_2.0]

There is a biannual arms fair (Eurosatory?). During the last one before Ruzzia's invasion Ruzzia came home with $6 billion worth of orders but at the most recent one Ruzzia went home with zero orders.

[@richardarriaga6271]

4:13 The Swiss insist you can't use their munitions when you are a warring party, which is the worst time to run out of ammo. And even if you are the defender!

[@SCH292]

So the lesson to be learn here. Don't buy Swiss made weapons.

[@wnose]

Their arms industry should go kaput. That's like buying a Tesla and they forbid you from driving in certain neighbourhoods.

[@marctison]

Hypocrites! So why manufacture them anyway. They are corrupted by corrupted clients.

[@richardarriaga6271]

@@marctison Earn that dictator cash and run off probably. How much did Swiss banks make from gold the Nazis stole?

[@SCH292]

@@wnose Or like those fake Martial Art/Kung fu classes. They teach ya how "to fight" and you pay A LOT OF cash for the lessons. Next thing the master tell ya that you should never fight, use it to show off and don't tell anybody that you know how to fight. Next thing you realize that you wasted money and time.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

I'm watching with interest to see how the heating situation unfolds this winter in Russia. I wonder what sort of domestic issue like that could spark protest, maybe a bit like how Kazakhstan protested over increased fuel prices. This particular issue is actually affecting Moscow and St Petersburg too.

[@4mb127]

It might be that the very cold weather is done for this winter already.

[@multipl3]

@@4mb127so just -20 then 😂😂

[@user-rx3xr1cg9d]

Hello from Sankt Petersburg. Living near metro station Plosad Lenina. Our house was built in year 1905)) , third floor. Temperature in my flat plus 25 Celsium. I have 45 square metres and paying 5000 ruublees(about 100 euro) for all - electricity, water (cold, hot) , heating. Excluding internet. No problem at all. Everything is working like Swiss watches.

[@spacemanx9595]

​@@4mb127lmao what a lie

[@spacemanx9595]

​@@user-rx3xr1cg9dlmao and lol

[@unknowngamer37415]

10:48 It's important to note that the research cost of the f-16 was actually really low because most of the research needed for the plane was already done for the f-15.

[@user-ww9yw4zi8m]

According to the article, the Air Force expected the F-16's research and development costs rose by some $7 billion to reach $13.8 billion by 1986. Adjusted for inflation, that's $54.7 billion in today's dollars. F-35 R&D costs, on the other hand, are estimated at $107 billion dollars to date. Thats CHEAP, Bargain, how much was the F-15 Research cost 100 billion ??

[@unknowngamer37415]

@@user-ww9yw4zi8m It can be hard to find exactly what cost is from R&D and what is procurement. Every other aircraft has the cost of the first order included and I could not get the source for the f-16 r&d number. I know the f-35 program is reported to be at 400billiin of US costs but I don't think that includes the other orders from both other countries and the ones the us. Ordered later. Be careful with R&D costs in general as the b-2 is often cited as being the most expensive aircraft ever built but the stealth research has definitely been used in everything Lockheed made since. Edit: found the original article for f-16 R&D cost and confirmed that the increased budget was largely due to an increase in the order size. So a lot of that expenditure is not actually R&D but instead just a lot more airframes.( The article cited a G.A.O report as thier primary source but I didn't want to spend 2 hours trying to find that)

[@d.lindsey5583]

I was with General Dynamics when Production aircraft Number 1 was being produced in 1974-5. We only had 2 prototype aircraft flying. Management was trying to engage the work force and held several information meetings back then. During that time, it was being heralded as a $20 million fighter, much less costly than the other air superiority fighter, the F15. It was also supposed to be a 20 year program, 1973 to 1995. Guess what, it's still being built in 2023, 50 years later, costing a reported $80 million.

[@jonathanoriley8260]

Due to inflation, $80 million today is equivalent to a little under $14 million in 1975, so that is quite a bit less per unit than what they expected lol

[@konekillerking]

So is the F-15, in the F-15ex and other export forms. Both quality aircraft.

[@briangarcia1540]

@@konekillerking all I see is ...5ex 🍆

[@nancyhope2205]

Thank you again. I always learn so much when I listen to you.

[@Linnir]

I think casualties causing a problem in the general workforce are not a future problem, but a current one. For example infrastructure heating issues this winter. Probably many of the maintenance guys are in Ukraine

[@bunzeebear2973]

Maybe, but Russian's do learn maintenance. Unfortunately if you are part of the MEATWAVE, then you are not available back in Moscow where the system went PoohPoo and the average temperature has not got really below -5C or 25F. The whole city relies on 1 centralized boiler. Instead of many separate boilers as one per building. So when the pipe blows and they are doing that, it depressurizes the whole system. And winter has not started yet(you know...-30F days and even colder nights. millions will die and Ukraine has not even attacked Moscow or Saint Petersburg. The rich cannot fly to somewhere warm on a STOLEN PLANE. so India is their only destination maybe.

[@pacificostudios]

This video should be subtitled: "What Tankies do not understand about the Russian military."

[@SmokePoppa]

The concept of the Tank is in the metaphorical interwar period between WWI and WWII. Some people are firmly of the opinion that the "tank" is completely obsolete and there should be no further use of them and doctrine should remove them. Another camp views tanks as a specialty item like the concept of "Airborne" which is generally worthless until you hit a few very certain requirements which make it a mandatory option. Studying tank battles from the past 50 years, there's a glaring issue that presents itself revealing a level of luck involved with all their successes and you'll hear tankers say it. "It's all about who shoots who first." That's a doctrine of pseudoscience which mirrors battleship thinking.

[@erco9167]

It was always just human wave tactics, wasn’t it?

[@quoccuongtran724]

tankies dont seem to care that the soviet union is just a phase and not the default status of russia, of course their understanding of reality is sketchy

[@mnomadvfx]

What is there to understand? The Russo-Ukrainian war is mostly being fought much like WW1-WW2, simply with more advanced toys in the mix.

[@Nappanaia]

@@mnomadvfx That bigger number of materiel doesn't necessarily equal better chances of winning if the materiel cannot be maintained or purchased.

[@Yora21]

The reason I thought the chance of Russia actually going to war being possible but highly unlikely until the very end was all the geopolitical and economical costs they would have to pay even in the case of a quick and complete victory. And even know, any time I learn more about the subject, the balance still keeps looking worse. I remain firm that the only thing I completely misjudged in my prediction was how stupid Russia could possibly be.

[@chaddixon9764]

Right? You and I apparently gave the balding judo master president way too much credit.

[@TheResilient5689]

Apparently, ideology trumps rational calculations for the Kremlin, as it seems.

[@28704joe]

Putin thought he couldn't possibly be as stupid as Boris Johnson or Donald Trump.

[@TheResilient5689]

@@28704joe He’s only slightly less stupid than either of them but much more malicious for sure.

[@fabiankelso]

Love your videos and structure of the script

[@sanchezjoel]

Those who also bought China arms will also regret later for their substandard value and untested quality.

[@casbot71]

Could it be that Western weapons appear to have a quality and reliability advantage based on the nature of democracy itself? In dictatorships/authoritarian regimes there's no transparency and no free press to act as a control and pressure relief on corruption and incompetence. All those news reports we've seen over the years about faults and failures in our Militaries have made Wester Militaries stronger. You don't get whistle-blowers in Russia or China. And so serious problems are never addressed.

[@wnose]

Not only that, but also the rank corruption in the military is a cancer. The manufacturer bribes the approval panel, so a new gizmo gets made. It gets implemented, and then instead of delivering 300 of the gizmos, the manufacturer bribes the commander to only receive 250. instead of required maintenance, the commander diverts the funds for his own use. Then he bribes the inspector. It's a great system until the gizmo has to be actually used. Then it gets stuck in the mud or blows up since it was never made to original spec. Or rusted due to poor maintenance. Or can't be fixed since there's a shortage of parts. It's cancer all the way down - Perun has a good video on it.

[@chrishooge3442]

Spot on. Xi should be worried his military is as hollow as Russia's.

[@No-mq5lw]

I think democracy and anti corruption efforts are part of the issue. But there's also the economic portion because simply, the Russian defense sector really has no foreign competition and very little internal competition amongst themselves. Yes because of corruption, but also let's be real here every single one of Russia's friends are their friends because of a common enemy not necessarily because they are politically aligned. This coupled with internal politics like lack of free speech, government transparency, and anti corruption watchdogs leads to a defense sector that doesn't have to actually make things that are good to make things sell.

[@ashcarrier6606]

I think a few years back a Russian journalist dared to publish online the shortcomings of the Pantsir air-defense system. That content did not survive long on the net. I don't know what happened to that guy. Civilian audit of the military is an aspect of Western Civilization dating back to the ancient Greeks. That Russia doesn't permit that only strengthens my belief that Russia is not a Western nation.

[@briancavanaugh7604]

@@wnose Why they don't, hypothetically of course, just tell the kremlin that it costs 10-15% more than it does, pocket the difference and make the gizmo to spec correctly. Yes there is "graft" but at the end of the day the tank armor works as intended with this form of corruption. I'd rather pay extra to get the proper kit vs cardboard ERA, of course no corruption would be ideal but this is earth and we are talking about humans lol.

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

as always, loved your presentation William. You certainly help me to fill in the knowledge gaps. Thanks & keep up the good work.

[@carborundum-dum]

Brilliant analysis and exposition, thank you for your highly professional effort!

[@nobody7158]

🤡

[@Edward-lo4hb]

Thank you. Always appreciate everything you do ❤

[@hillelderman]

Dayum. The amount of research you must have to do for these vids is crazy. Love your work

[@lleavell92630]

Russia made a very big mistake in this war with Ukraine, which has fully exposed the embarrassing quality or lack thereof, of their military equipment.

[@donaldpetersen2382]

China has the money but has failed R&D due to their own internal competition with stolen technology. Was stealing US/USSR tech worth it or ultimately going to undermine China's military potential?

[@baronvonlimbourgh1716]

It is a good way to catch up to competition and build an industrial base and develop manufacturing knowledge an ability. And china is still a very new industrial player globaly. Once you have cought up, have the industrial base built and the human recources at a sufficient level you can start investing into r&d for new technology. China is getting there quickly.

[@supa3ek]

lol you china haters are funny China is the only country that can operate a space station independently. It has the highest IQ people on the planet ...and you haters are always spewing your stereotypes and lies forever lolololol

[@ottotitslinger3430]

In the new critical emerging technologies China leads by "decades" in 37 of 44 of them...........especially AI tech. China is now rolling out it's 6G, the West is still struggling with 3G and 4G, & decided to reject China's 5G. It's technologies caught up to the West and rocketed past. Since 2019 it's expenditure on manufacturing research and development has increased from 5%y/y to 35%y/y China's value-added manufacturing now is bigger than Japan, EU and US combined. China doesn't need to steal.

[@donaldpetersen2382]

@ottotitslinger3430 Do you got any sources in your ccp playbook to backup any of these claims?

[@davidporter7051]

​@@ottotitslinger3430you may put down the propaganda pipe at any time. China isn't anywhere close to where you claim technology wise and its arms industry is even worse. Why do you believe there is a great purge taking place with the People's Republic?

[@tylermcafee1081]

Thanks for the video Billy

[@fightingthefaith]

this was a great one, thanks William

[@Deicide6666]

Seriously I love your work, the quality you put into it and the little humor bits. I never miss a video either. I bought your book for Christmas as I stated I would be doing and plan to leave a review for it. Top notch work as always, I look forward to your '24 content.

[@stmaui6973]

EXCELLENT episode. Thank you Dr Spaniel.

[@user-mn4sr7ti5u]

Great job!!! I was fortunate to work in the defense industry for years.

[@NyPer920]

Great content as always!

[@siddharth6505]

And now India is building its own weapons and exporting to other countries, today India replaced Russia as the main arms exporter to Armenia.

[@sammurphy3343]

In the first Russian trek to Kiev the amount of vehicles that ran out of fuel and were ditched was in the thousands.

[@tatarin3471]

Ха-ха🎉

[@tatarin3471]

100000000000

[@heetheet75]

@@tatarin3471 seething vatnik imperialist

[@Sveta7]

Milions rather

[@Kakarot64.]

​@@Sveta7 Nah not millions remember some of them couldn't join the convoy in the first place because of how degraded their sub par Chinese tires were after being left out in the sun for extended storage.

[@victoriahigman6802]

This is extremely helpful. Nice one Lines on Maps

[@terryraynor8919]

Your awesome looking making this simple explanation of things thank you !

[@bobbryden147]

With no video on recent current events we knew a good one was in the works.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

Guy Verhofstadt was talking this week about there being no common European Defence Community, and common procurement. Could talk about this being a solution to the fact we only have big states producing significant amounts of military materiel.

[@donohirst]

I just think group euro stuff is doomed. The generals all want their particular bells and whistles on, then it gets to politicians and there's a new set of bells and whistles cos Hamburg makes widgets, and Hull makes doodads, and le havre cant politically justify it without their wotsits attached. Before you know it billions are gone, mostly in lawyers and 1 of the big 4 accountancy organised crime group, oops sorry, i meant accountancy firm, dunno where that came from?! Sometimes it works, surprisingly us and France made Scalp eg and storm Shadow as a combined project. My own stepfather worked in Toulouse when Concorde was being conceived. So we can do it, but as Britain is sooooo good at wasting billions I don't really blame countries for being leery of involvement in large scale military projects. And even the French are a bit reticent over what started as the EEC forming divisions and mechanized brigades!. Imagine a parade in full dress uniform, that'd be some dog's breakfast of kepis and picklehaubers and god knows what else, especially if there's a Greek in there!

[@PapaOscarNovember]

I think the problem with EU wide procurement is parochialism of defense contractors - they are national. If EU chooses to buy French weapons, Germans and Swedish are going to object. If EU chooses to buy German, other will object etc. Before EU wide procurement standards can be established, these defense contractors either need to merge or become international. Dassault, Rheinmetal, Scania, etc. need to either merge or create subsidiaries in other EU states. Only then, EU wide procurement will become politically palatable.

[@Simonsimon-fy3hq]

Verhofstadt will look after Verhofstadt

[@NmaeUnavailablesigh]

That wouldn't be small players entering the market as much as a new big player being created.

[@marcdc6809]

I guess if Europe can produce an airbus, it will also be able to produce a stealth fighter that outclasses the F35... for the entire Nato it would be a beneficial thing if there's a bit of internal rivalry in stead of a de facto monopoly. also Americans tend to get more stupid and illiterate with every new generation...

[@bleargh22]

This is a brilliant explanation. Complete shift in my understanding and view of how this works.

[@JJ-fr2ki]

8:09 Sadly, artillery “tubes” require costly frequent maintenance. Which is why drones are more cost effective and more useful than $3,000 per round inaccurate artillery.

[@john38825]

At least they don't have water in their missiles

[@connormclernon26]

…are you sure about that?

[@oleksii000]

Is that why some missiles land in ruzzia?

[@john38825]

@@connormclernon26 you got me there

[@arthurstadlin6110]

I think the whole ‘filled with water’ thing is a translation error. I believe ‘filled with water’ is an idiom for something over inflated, like ‘the books are filled with water’ would be a way of saying someone’s cooked the books. The missels aren’t actually filled with water, just significantly lower quality fuel. Of course, I’m not Chinese and don’t speak Chinese, this is just what I’ve heard people in the internet claim. So take it with a grain of salt.

[@ronkolek613]

@@arthurstadlin6110I mean, if some dumb teenagers drink some of their folks hard booze and replace with water, till it’s watered down, under the thought “no one will notice”. Why not the same with the rocket fuel?

[@gregkerr725]

I know if I was the buyer of military equipment for some country, the only thing I'd buy would be small arms.....not because they are better than western small arms...just cheaper. As for armor, aircraft and other big ticket items I'd only buy western weapons based on the fact that for decades, wars in which one side has western weapons and the other Russian weapons, it seems the western arms prevail.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

You’d want to be careful about that. Most post-Cold War US kit is expensive crap. Our legacy gear is still VERY good & we’ve got solid upgrade programs but the F-35 is the biggest boondoggle in military history.

[@stuglife5514]

@@grahamstrouse1165 You don’t know much about the F-35, do you. No seriously. Give me one real reason the F-35 is bad, something that Graham Hancock didn’t pull out of his ass to say on Russian state media. Please

[@SianaGearz]

@@stuglife5514 Fact of the matter, none of us know much about the F35, and that's a fact to be cognisant of. I would say strong signs point to it being the future of areal combat, not letting anything that could possibly threaten it come within range of hurting it - which is why quite a few countries are eagre participants in the programme. One shouldn't be too surprised that developing a literal superweapon is costly and expensive.

[@SianaGearz]

Why would you want Russian small arms? You could just buy from Bulgaria and a hundred places in the world.

[@Innerspace100]

@@stuglife5514 I thought Hancock was mostly busy spreading nonsense about ancient civilisations, and things like that... Are you sure you're not thinking of the utter bellend knob socket that was Pierre Sprey? He has certainly(!) been sitting in RT's studios talking bollocks about the F-35. He was also part of the infamous "Fighter Mafia".

[@d.lindsey5583]

During early days of the F16 program General Dynamics was trying to line up export sales for the aircraft with US Nato partners, Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, etc. More sales = lower unit cost and more profit. A big part of the sales contracts required Co-production, for instance Belgium may be producing a certain percentage of the forward fuselage and the Dutch wings. It was a jobs and production facilities as well as money for aircraft sales.

[@DarknessDShadow]

New book plugs, hell yeah. I honestly enjoy them

[@ofthehunt4243]

You should try summarizing what you talked about at the end of videos, it helps with information retention. Crash course goes really hard on this for example, I think they’re a bit extra but the concept is good.

[@heinzaballoo3278]

This

[@ekesandras1481]

12:00 the former Warsaw Block countries were not only customers of the Russian arms industry, but also major producers themselves, especially Czechoslovakia, but also Romania, Bulgaria and ... Ukraine. And very often they were producing a very similar product than Russia, compatible to Soviet standars. So they were direct competitors for exactly the same contracts, e.g. in Africa and Southeast Asia.

[@franco555able]

Thanks for another inspiring video. Your videos have re-ignited my passion for political science subjects I studied so long ago ..... and will finally read David Axelrod book...... together with the two you have on sale. Thanks

[@trikkid]

Great analysis. Thanks.

[@cjcolehour2778]

11:40 one very underappreciated fact about the US indusial expansion in both world wars was that it happened so quickly because the industry was already expanding rapidly to Haddle huge overseas orders, so the us gust had to take over already building factories for its own production.

[@msimon6808]

The same is happening for this war.

[@grahamstrouse1165]

@@msimon6808No it’s not. American industrial capacity is a fraction of what it was in the middle 20th century. Neoliberalism hollowed us out.

[@legrandfromage6450]

Maybe Joe Biden can wave his magic wand and make hundreds upon hundreds of arms factories appear overnight. Along with tens of thousands of machinists, welders, millwrights, crane operators, forklift drivers, engineers, robot techs, etc. all ready to go.

[@phoenixmarktwo]

​@@grahamstrouse1165Tell that to the HIMARS and Abrahms. It's not Neolibralism. It's just the fact that we aren't actively at war with anyone, so production is down. We still spend more on the military than anything else in this country. Quit blaming the left for things that aren't even happening.

[@dannydadog1987]

@grahamstrouse1165 Probably too, but wasn't it mostly the relaxed defense policies towards Russia compared to the height of cold-war and frowned upon Vietnam war, which led to downscaling of the US (and European) military complex? Besides, dou you also use term 'neoliberalism' meaning the next-stage of capitalism, focusing more on individual entrepreneurs and engagement-based individual consumerism in US, same as we do in Europe?

[@stevendaugherty7590]

Mr Spaniel: this is a very insightful & informative analysis! Thanks for all of your videos!

[@piuswanyaga8361]

It's propaganda to belittle Russia armed industries

[@rlogan771]

Great docco and a great channel. Good work!

[@pesokpesok]

another professional, concise - amazing video!!!

[@alexop5919]

For everybody: Borsch is more tasty with a parsley, not dill. And a spoon of sour-cream is excellent. This dish may not have some outstanding taste but it is very very healthy dish.

[@carlfromtheoc1788]

China does not sell its good stuff, and even China (until recently) imported key technologies from the West that they really just can't quite produce themselves - like certain electronics and jet engines, and a lot of what they produce is tofu-esque. Also, if you do not want to buy Russian or Chinese, there is France, England, Switzerland, South Korea, and even Japan. Also, nice Watchmen reference.

[@danielbarnes7559]

Very good video, great presentation, well thoght out, explained in a manner that most people should understand

[@HastolNafor]

Outstanding work.

[@paulroman3402]

just purchased your book (kindle), can't wait to read it.

[@Gametheory101]

Please leave a review when finished. Thanks!

[@user-nr8zj5nm4d]

Solid analysis again, William Spaniel. thank you! I would nuance the position of small countries as arms producers a bit. If industrially advanced and with widely branched international relations, such countries can play a serious role in manufacturing or in co development with other countries/partners. Countries like Sweden, Finland or the Netherlands come to mind.

[@marcussassan]

As always a wonderful report

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Brilliant! Thanks.

[@langolier9]

I used to be really good at research in college, tons of scholarships but I’m really impressed with the research. It goes into a video like this like I’m totally impressed.

[@u2beuser714]

William spaniel i have a question regarding this, since weapones sales have strings attached how does that effect india? India was until very recently very dependant on russian arms how does that affects its geopolitical stance? Edit: and one more question, if the U.S will replace russia as a supplier what india is going to do with the thousands of stuff it bought from russia?

[@laurakastrup]

Assuming that the US’ stance on India holds true (office of foreign affairs) the US would probably be happy to equip India. India can’t buy from the other “cheap” option, China, as India is regarded as a competitor and they do have a border dispute. So either they would look to the Europeans (Rafal aircraft) or to the US. US is definitely the higher price point but- they do also have decent equipment that has been battle tested, one of the perks of having had an ongoing military operation in the Middle East I suppose- India could also try its luck and continue buying Russian, although idk how well that would sit with the Indian public.

[@unoriginalname4321]

​@@laurakastrupI imagine that most / all russian weapons production is allocated for the meat grinder, so India can buy all the russian hardware they want, but I doubt they'll ever see it.

[@RobinTheBot]

​@@laurakastrupmost of what they need is no longer sold, though. Even if they were that dumb.

[@u2beuser714]

​@@laurakastrupBut you can only replace the suppliers the facts remain that you cant simply throw away all the stuff you have bought, india has thosands of stuff that needs spare parts and its relaiant on russia as a supplier switching to the U.S is one thing but that ignores the elephant in the room which is changing tactics and strategies in combat its going to take decades. Furthermore according to pew research, the indian public remains as one of having the most pro russian stance in the world with 57 percent surveyed having pro russian attitudes

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

Perun talked about this recently. He noted that because India tends not to want to tie itself to the US too hard, they've switched to ordering a lot of EU equipment now that the Russians have proven to be unreliable arms suppliers. France in particular has sold them a bunch of stuff, like jets.

[@geoffreyreeks2422]

Thank you. Regards, Geoff. Reeks

[@luminyam6145]

That was quite fascinating.

[@Marylandbrony]

Hey you referenced watchmen in the Vietnam section!

[@kcgunesq]

You'll probably say something similar in this video, but my preliminary take is: Prior to the Ukraine Invasion, most of the world likely say Russian weapons as, on average 90% (or more) as capable as Western weapons. Now, it appears they aren't even close to being in the same class or even adjacent classes. Russia suddenly appears to be be at least a couple generations behind.

[@brianmurray1395]

lol you obviously are not seeing what Russia can do. Their equipment is tenfold better than the highly combustible junk from the WEST!

[@wber3530]

What are you even talking about? Russian weapons are perfectly find with deleting modern nato equipment staring from Bradleys and 2a6, ending with paladins and m777

[@kcgunesq]

@@wber3530 If you believe this is the message that arms buyers are getting from this war, I'm not going to argue with you.

[@mikeb5063]

@@kcgunesq Yeh we just watched Russia flush thousands of tanks and apc's down the shitter for minimal gains against a country a third its size, we see a nation with over a thousand combat aircraft fail to get air superiority, We see a nation that fired off millions of shells per month for minimal gains only to go begging north korea for more after they run out,

[@neutralevil1917]

Well... let's see. They're the only country in the world capable of producing hypersonic weapons at the industrial scale. No one else can do that including America that's failing in that area again and again. They hold the current world record for successfull space launches in a row. They have superior anti-air systems like S-400 even NATO member Turkey has bought despite being sanctioned for that (sic!) by America. And they wiped out all those western tanks provided by NATO countries. > a couple generations behind Behind whom? The crumbling empire that has issues even with shooting a weather balloon?

[@AlanRuscoe]

Great analysis!

[@harvesteasternedge]

Thanks !!

[@jeniamtl6950]

I've been hearing this for 2 years now

[@SPQSpartacus]

And Russia’s ability to artificially keep afloat is weakening every day. Could become a catastroohic collapse.

[@jeniamtl6950]

​@@SPQSpartacus Yes. Putin has cancer. The Russians have no ammo... When I'll see it, I'll believe it

[@Rath-Angkor-Thom]

Thank you 😊 Very informative and educational!

[@Barnie-pi7mk]

Keep up the excellent work man love the work you do

[@Khal_Rheg0]

Thank you!

[@rj6404]

India is not just buying arms , its also asking for technology transfers , billions of $'s in sale initially but subsequently manufactured in its own backyard , when it orders1500 passenger planes with western companies ( the biggest ever in the history ) , the factores are being set up too , the supersonic missile Brahmos , fighter jet Tejas , Rafale all being made there , the sanctions on russia makes it easier to b made in India , FYI the indian arms export in 2023 was $1.9 Billions .

[@blackman7186]

India really knows how to pinch gold from any situation. No matter what happens India always seems to find a way to benefit.

[@Deltarious]

"I have not gone used car shopping in Moscow for a while" implies that you *have* done so, at some point. If you told that story, even if it was in the form of a book, I would be interested to hear it.

[@MrJdsenior]

Pretty sure that was tongue in cheek, especially the way he said it.

[@stephenbone4764]

ONE MORE GREAT VID < THANKS !

[@purikurix]

Best video in recent time👍🏻

[@randybentley2633]

It's even better when other countries end up paying for improvements to a weapons system that had long ago recouped its development costs. Such has come to pass with the F-15EX & the ever-evolving F-16, of which my hometown of Greenville South Carolina is reaping the benefits of the Viper's continued production.

[@ZhovtoBlakytniy]

The issue about there being a smaller workforce in russia is evident right now. Everything plumbing and heating related is breaking in the normal russian winter conditions. Road workers are pretty absent, too. Wonder where they all went hmmmmmm

[@LexMakarov]

I am engaged in the construction of boiler structures; in less than a month I visited the 3 “coldest” cities in Russia. And you know what... everything worked everywhere (at work I communicate with dozens of colleagues who service boiler houses in dozens of cities in central and eastern Russia and they also have no problems), every year the state allocates money for the modernization of heating equipment, working installations every year they are becoming more and more reliable every year; over 15 years of work in this area, I see a steady increase in reliability. And the funniest thing is that they write about problems in the heating sector of countries that do not even have a centralized heating system :). But you dont have to believe me, continue the news where in Russia 5000 people a day die from the cold.

[@CatManOfTaste]

@@LexMakarovit’s called a brain drain for a reason, the smart people left, not the plumbers 😂

[@LexMakarov]

@@CatManOfTaste Heating engineer designing CHP = plumber 🤔🤣

[@paulgibbon5991]

@@LexMakarov Collect your potatoes.

[@LexMakarov]

@@paulgibbon5991 ???

[@lpfr77212]

Excellent analysis! And I just bloody love your puntual sarcasm.😂

[@CrystallineFoxCF]

This is the most unbiased coverage of Russia's issues I have seen yet, thank you William Spaniel for making this video

[@user-kv3ww2gb2e]

😂😂😂

[@kunsif]

West- russia can't produce weapons Also russia producing 1500 tanks, 2 nuclear submarines and 20,000 uavs in 2023.

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

I see a big question and dilemma for India here. Leaders there may wish to continue buying Russian weapons for political reasons. But it is highly likely that chiefs of the Indian armed forces would prefer Western arms to use in a potential conflict with China. And exports of Russian weapons are now rationed for use mainly in Ukraine instead. India is already boosting its own arms production as well.

[@bipolitthefighter2599]

Who would have thought that useing arms to invade a country would cripple the arms industry

[@logician3641]

LOL

[@marlenfras5490]

Good reporting. Thank you. Strong Ukraine.

[@dennisrydgren]

Thx man 🇸🇪

[@Operation_C4]

I think I almost take it for granted just how much I know about the conflict. It's almost mind numbing talking to normies.

[@johnmcguire4422]

As mind numbing as listening to your humble opinion?

[@10secondsrule]

@@johnmcguire4422spot on😂

[@Cenentury0941]

"I'm not like the other girls"

[@Operation_C4]

@@johnmcguire4422 I don't give my opinions to people unprompted. I wish I could say the same for everyone else.

[@johnmcguire4422]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. God just wishes he could be me! 😂🤣😂

[@kingace6186]

27:33 I know the F-22 and F-35 are hype, but the real lethal machine is Santa's Sleigh🎅💪In just one night, it is can go all around the world at hypersonic speeds. All powered by just milk, cookies, and a pack of aerodynamic reindeer. And it has six-gen stealth but still has jingling bells to flex.

[@angriboi]

Maybe, Russia should buy one of those.

[@Kakarot64.]

300,000x the speed of sound, instant acceleration and deceleration, 1/1000 of a second time limit to enter each house drop of the presents eat the cookies drink the milk and exit the house, cargo capacity capable of carrying a gift tonnage equivalent of two Nimitz Class aircraft carriers, and each and every landing releasing enough kinetic energy to generate a meteor impact crater 4.5km in diameter. Yeah probably worth it getting ahold of one for "logistics" purposes

[@Cenentury0941]

Guess someone hasn't heard of the NORAD Santa tracker. "Sixth gen stealth" 👈🤣

[@xxDrain]

My favorite screen-to-screen book salesman makes a new video, I watch.

[@thedailygreatness]

Russia has lost about 1 million citizens due to emigration/flight. The impact is being felt right now with the lack of skilled maintenance workers to repair HVAC and plumbing systems which is resulting in Russians in Moscow literally freezing.

[@ugandanknuckkles9667]

Didn't they also had huge "brain-drain" even before the war too?

[@billhodges7835]

Plumbers are not leaving Russia 😹😹😹😹😹

[@paulgibbon5991]

And that's before you get into how many services have had holes punched in them by conscription.

[@grvc44]

the destruction of a T-90 Against the Bradley will make it worse for the Russian arms industry, especially their Export variants.

[@Sveta7]

First of all, bradleys disabled the t90, it's drones and artilery that finished it off later on when it was immobile. No it won't change anything, it's a war with relatively equal sides when it comes to technology, equipment gets lost and destroyed... It's not a war that the US usually fights, where you go against drastically inferior foe, with heavily outdated tech where you pump up your fake reputation... "Abrams is indestructible", "f15 was never lost in combat etc"... But when you ask a question against who did those weapons battle there's cope and silence.

[@JB-pu8ik]

Ryan McBeth did a solid video on that fight. TLDR that T90 probably survived, although it was absolutely mauled by the Bradley. Given gow little information/context was available, that doesn't really tell us much.

[@wber3530]

t90 survived close range ambush against 2 bradleys, it only proved that it has good protection, but shittons of destroyed bradleys by russian weapons make it worse for future sales

[@paulgibbon5991]

@@wber3530 Continue coping.

[@wber3530]

@@paulgibbon5991 Stating the facts is not coping. The same goes to the destruction of leopards 2a6

[@sammurphy3343]

13:39 that is something I never thought about but very important.

[@ericluffy7970]

No doubt this is another Banger by Billy

[@mushroomsteve]

I think you are confusing variable costs (the term in the cost function that depends on the number of items produced) and marginal costs (the cost of producing one additional item). Mathematically, if the total cost of producing n weapons is C(n), then C(n) = F + V(n), where F is the fixed (up front) costs, and V(n) is the variable cost. Note that F is a constant and V(n) changes as n does. The marginal cost, therefore, is the derivative M(n) = C'(n) = d/dn (F + V(n)) = V'(n). So the marginal cost is V'(n), or the derivative of the variable cost, not the variable cost itself.

[@terrylyn]

Is anything currently in russia that isn't in deep trouble? Not even joking, a genuine question at this point.

[@TJ-USMC]

Excellent Video !!!

[@anthonydavinci7985]

William Spaniel, your thoughts, thinking, In Depth Reasoning is Extraordinarily Exceptional Quality. We need you in the US Senate !

[@thomasjohnson2862]

In the Borscht example, is Ukraine the borscht supplier and America the can supplier, or vice-versa?