George Friedman on Trump, Europe, and the Shifting World Order

[@drgeorgek]

If Europe isnt motivated enough/can’t be bothered/doesn’t want to defend itself (or whatever other reason), why should the USA? Europe is no longer down and out, nor is Russia the fearful Soviet Union it once was. Sure an alliance is fine but to entirely rely on the USA is ridiculous

[@colgategilbert8067]

Thanks. The US paid for the Global system to protect Europe, its allies, and itself by giving up potentially 1/3 of its economy over the past 70 years. In the past 30 years, this system has not provided the degree of security the US wanted. Europe has recovered as has much of the world. They can afford degrees of their own security. However, with countries like Germany that was seriously considering disbanding its defense and military previously, the US is getting tired of paying for it all out of its own pocket for something that is not meeting its needs.

[@lmvcnn]

It's part of De dollarization process when EU wakes up.

[@jaydugger3291]

Thank you.

[@Riddingwithvivian]

Im afraid Europe might be on its own going forward unless they will let American buy land and have residence in Europe as Europeans do

[@karlarcher8773]

Necessity is the mother of all inventions.

[@shawnwang2221]

"You can be a leader whenever you want". Really? Who is going to follow a "leader" that can pick and choose when it is convenient to lead?

[@Herbert-uz8wy]

Thank you George! Clear eyes!

[@n5017858]

15:00 there was literally no help from the US in East Timor. Not a lot of Australians have forgotten that. The US is not a reliable partner for Australia in an Australian conflict. In WWII it took a written invitation from Japan for the US to give Australia help

[@wvhaugen]

This is just rubbish. Russia is losing men in this Ukrainian "adventure" and have a smaller population than they need to develop their own resources. Invading Poland is not doable. Russia couldn't even handle western Ukraine. Nine oblasts is the limit of their ability to govern.

[@mpjarvis7002]

Left out of this discussion is the more obvious fact that the Europeans have been spending less on defense than the US because they didn't have a seat at the table of decision making for such a long time. The US persued its own course of action in relation to the Soviet Union and they assumed that the Europeans were on board. If the US insists on making decisions affecting global security and then expects its allies to pick up the tab for carrying out US diplomacy, one can understand why there would be reluctance on the part of the Europeans to do so.

[@andyskywalker1979]

Let us not forget that in 2008, when this all started, it was Germany and France who resisted adding Georgia and Ukraine to the NATO wishlist. But they succumbed to the pressure from the US. So yeah now to say it is a European war is really interesting!

[@markfalcoff1743]

Opinion polls taken in many Western European countries find that the vast majority of young people would not respond militarily if their country was invaded. So much for the Alliance!

[@isakrusinek8042]

Failing to consider Nuclear Proliferation and its many implications. Once trust on the US umbrella weakens ( already there ?), the obvious path for Europe, South Korea and even Taiwan to put together their own invasion deterrence quickly, is to build and deploy (expand in the case of France) their own nuclear weapons. Kind of a horror scenario

[@kenithandry5093]

Well said!

[@superfreiheit1]

The EU is not a country.

[@lmvcnn]

time to put Tax on Hyprocricy and Arrogance.

[@jarooosa]

Europe's long term destiny is basically as an outdoor, open-air museum for the rest of the developed world to use as a holiday destination.

[@wvhaugen]

This is a good idea. American and Chinese tourists bring money and take photos. (I live in France.)

[@donaldclifford5763]

George should bring in the Intermarium into the big picture. Poland is arming. Ukraine is arming while under fire. That's the core of Intermarium, from Baltic to Black Seas.

[@Petronium123]

Ukraine doesnt like Poland. Lithuania doesnt either.

[@oldsalt8011]

Trump!!!

[@rodgerhempfing2921]

Will it be poland or france who will take the lead? Germany is now a pacifist country, dies anyine want them to become Nationilistic again?

[@marcgrant2225]

the united states pushes nato to russia’s border and when russia responds the united states says to europe its your problem. there is no way that would make sense unless we continue to see europe as a playing field like vietnam upon which neocons play their geopolitical matches. as europe has recovered from the world wars its time for them to get back to being responsible for themselves. hopefully they have learned to do better in this century than the last. if not then its too bad for them in a similar way that israel now suffers from its dependency.

[@kevinw8593]

No one is forced to join NATO, and every single NATO member has to approve a new member. The vast majority of NATO countries are in Europe, so to blame the US is kind of a weird move. But is your plan to deny countries the right to join NATO if they wish? That's denying them the right to self determination.

[@urbangypsy4335]

As always, great analysis!

[@jacquelinemarie6325]

Who is left to work toward Peace? Nato is a defensive alliance that helped to maintain Peace in the world,,,America used to care about that. George sounds like an old fool.

[@eikoGoldstein]

Remember that at the end of WW2, the US was the only Western nation that wasn't decimated by war. We assumed a role as the chief defender of the West because we were the only country with the means. The US quickly created and led a defensive alliance against the Soviets. (They had been our ally in the recently concluded war.) This was a complete reversal of the posture the US had maintained for its first 175 years. We spent most of the 19th century espousing only the Monroe Doctrine. The two world wars changed all this. The Soviet Union is no more. But the US understands that it still must have allies and alliances. What Americans (and Trump) are looking for is a change in the terms of the alliance, where the US is still the key nation but that the allies carry more of the load, especially in their own back yard. Best wishes!

[@MaxOgorov]

😂 ok

[@jamessmithers4456]

Taiwan spends barely 2% of its GDP on the military. This is about the average for NATO countries

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

The average for NATO countries the last year*. How long has Tawain been spending that barely 2%?

[@y.g.1313]

Junk

[@StanimirDoranovic]

How does a European view all of this: When Russia defeated Nazism in World War II on the Eastern Front and, without any resistance, advanced towards Berlin (ironically, just like what’s happening today), the USA rushed to occupy part of Europe as well (not to liberate it from Nazism, which industrialists like Henry Ford and others from the USA and England had enthusiastically funded-just like they’re funding Ukraine today!). The USA then established its positions in Berlin. From that moment until today, Europe has been under occupation by the USA (via NATO), which uses the EU for its plundering campaigns toward the East, while the Russians withdrew (ended their occupation and granted Europe its freedom). Afterward, the USA forced the EU into countless wars it didn’t want to participate in: Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Kuwait… The EU deserves freedom from the USA, which has over 850 occupation bases worldwide. While there were still resources to plunder (such as natural resources or, for example, Gaddafi’s and Saddam’s gold and cash reserves), in Africa, South America, and elsewhere, the USA could afford to finance its conquest campaigns. Now, there’s nothing left to plunder, and the USA is awaiting bankruptcy and civil war. The EU is trying to free itself from USA occupation because it is aware that it will be sacrificed to fight Russia and China (who have no intention of attacking the EU), while the USA will “assist” from afar, ensuring that as many Europeans as possible die-just as Ukrainians and Russians are dying now. The replacement of globalist governments in the EU only demonstrates a trend toward freeing the EU from the USA (which, in its 240 years of existence, has engaged in over 230 wars-on foreign soil!!!). The USA is on the verge of collapse due to bankruptcy and civil war (Texas and 25 supporting states vs. the deep state). The $36 trillion debt, which grows by a million dollars every second, will never be repaid (there are no more resources to plunder, except in the EU). That is the real truth about the EU and the USA.

[@davidknudson5413]

Russian Bot, I presume?

[@kevinw8593]

Well this is an interesting alternate reality.

[@markfalcoff1743]

Wisdom from the Serbians, who started World War One.

[@adriand1718]

@@markfalcoff1743 Don't forget the Russian Panslavism concept, popular in Serbia as it knowed...

[@michaelmullins3396]

Friedman sounds like he had too many whiskey's.

[@clncarpets]

You sound like a dick!

[@elgrandjefe4661]

I fully agree that Europe should look to its own defence, and with that cease to cede space to America's needs in geopolitics and go against it when its in Europe's interest. Had Europe done that, there would have been no NATO expansion and no war in UKR.

[@nicke0b]

NATO expansion is one of the best things that has happened to EU and Europe.

[@demetripapachristopoulos3295]

You seem to suggest that it was the US, not EU, that most sought NATO expansion into Ukraine (and soon therafter to make it a part of the EU). Why is that?

[@arnostmarks2853]

Appeasing Russians - great idea🤣

[@nicke0b]

​@@demetripapachristopoulos3295 No specifically regarding Ukraine it seems that some people in US supported the idea. But both US and EU did not want Ukraine in NATO or EU before the war. It was seen as too much headache. US policy going back at least to Obama was that Ukraine is very difficult to defend so that situation should be avoided.

[@demetripapachristopoulos3295]

Thank you for the explanation. However, the public in the EU is very pro-intervention, as a whole, and in the US the public is very against interference in Ukraine. The EU and NATO leaders had changed their public rhetoric about Ukraine and said that an invitation to join NATO and begin the process of integrating Ukraine with the EU were likely. Under Obama, the US, EU, and NATO broke their promise not to expand east and added several former states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.) to NATO in violation of the Minsk accord. These facts and NATO beginning to add NATO weapons in Ukraine is what preceded Russia's invasion.

[@talatguneyli13]

I agree to a certain point but not all.

[@lifeonearth9261]

At which point do you disagree?

[@talatguneyli13]

@@lifeonearth9261 The part that he said eu nations didnt join the wars . US was not attacked those were wars that US created and were unjustified. No NATO member has to join , on the other hand if Russia attacks , that would be a different situation , according to art. no 5.

[@jamessmithers4456]

Neocon nonsense

[@ovinel]

Sounds like George is in serious mental decline

[@ilmelangolo]

He mistakes causes with effects. It's a very bad sign.

[@bensanderson7144]

He’s Jewish, his parents were chased by nazis, and his entire life has been dedicated to trying to understand how the Holocaust happened.

[@Bluest_of_Blue_Waffles]

Europe is not a country

[@ilmelangolo]

Until they will not let us BE. Or "Liberty and Indipendence" is only fot the U.s.?

[@SethNaugler]

True, but it is for the purpose of defense (and especially economically after Schengen).

[@DARDA360]

Multinational corrupt bureaucracy.

[@Manitoba-rt4qu]

OMG. Lots of garbage.

[@Demonator27]

And yet you offer precisely nothing constructive by way of counter-argument.

[@bigbeautifulsnowflake7546]

the age of american cockyness has begun as an european I cant really be mad at George here, he is merely laying out how it is from the american perspective

[@ilmelangolo]

He looks completely trumped by his own propaganda. When you mistake causes with effects it's a very bad sign.

[@lifeonearth9261]

A side effect of war exhaustion. Of course, the US didn't HAVE to get involved in those Middle East wars. Exhaustion, nonetheless... and if it's the US shouldering most of the burden then, is it really cockiness? It seems any degree of American assertiveness in military defense of Europe would be seen as cocky. That's the main perspective I heard.

[@bigbeautifulsnowflake7546]

@@lifeonearth9261 Ha, those are exactly the kind of crocodile tears expected of the global hegemon forcing its "allies" into a protection racket by directing the anger of a bully towards them. At least with this new administration there will be no sugar coating of this reality anymore. Either buy US-made weapons and sell your bombed out assets or alternatively get left in the dust.

[@tankieslayer6927]

If the Western Europeans want to continue acting like occupied countries, they should consider paying us tribute.

[@nicke0b]

Europe already does favors for US. For example preventing ASML machine sales to China.

[@AK-ic1yj]

You’re so edgy and alpha.

[@ilmelangolo]

You should consider _leaving_ and coming back home. The first move shall be yours. Then magically Western Europeans would never be able "to continue acting like occupied countries".

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

​@@nicke0boh wow, all is well then! If you think it's in Europe interest to sell that tech to China, than do it.

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

​@@ilmelangololike when Germans were crying about their poor economy when Trump was threatening to lower US troops numbers? You talk tough, but reality is most your leaders and fellow citizens are soft as baby shit. You know this.