Geopolitics, Innovation, and Deglobalization With Peter Zeihan

- - The world is currently experiencing a multitude of historic events, from a global pandemic to the confounding invasion of Ukraine, to an ever-increasing rise in climate-related disasters. Here to help us unravel the influence of these events, as well as broader geopolitical trends on innovation, is a critically acclaimed author and geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan. His latest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization looks into the wave of deglobalization the world is currently experiencing and what this means for the future of energy, finance, manufacturing, and innovation as we move through the coming decades. Today, you’ll hear an overview of Peter’s geopolitical worldview, how he expects deglobalization to affect innovation in the US and abroad, as well as some of the challenges facing green tech and its applications. We also delve into how authoritative governments can limit connection in the modern world, why nuclear power is a necessary part of our global future, as well as the merits and shortcomings of a decentralized currency like Bitcoin.
Key Points from this Episode
- Get to know today’s guest Peter Zeihan, Geopolitical Strategist and author.
- Introducing Peter’s latest book The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
- An overview of deglobalization and depopulation in the context of the last century.
- Peter’s thesis of the macroeconomic and technological impact of the end of deglobalization.
- The types of terrain where autonomous electric trucks will have the biggest impact.
- The countries expected to benefit most from autonomous electric trucks in their supply chain management.
- The three technological revolutions that shifted society’s relationship to its economy and geographic positioning.
- Peter’s expectations around deindustrialization in the next two decades.
- Examples of how authoritative governments can limit global connection with the outside world.
- The challenges of sourcing more raw materials for green energy.
- How green tech is affected by geopolitics.
- Why nuclear power is crucial for the future of global energy.
- Peter’s views on Bitcoin and its shortcomings.
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[@cinein5503]

Honestly probably the best example of civil debate between two disagreeing sides I've seen in years.

[@mrjonnylowes]

I still found it quite difficult to watch. I think my world view is more in line with Ark's, but I still rate Peter Zeihan and think he does have some profound insights, I don't agree with everything he says though. I also agree with you, how to debate something in a civil manner, this is a great example of how. I just don't think I was ready for it! lol 🤣

[@LioBilly]

Guest’s info on tesla and bitcoin were really bad. I don’t consider myself above average knowledge RE: the other topics he discussed, but based on his inability to understand Tesla’s tech lead, and Bitcoin’s viability, I have to assume everything else he touched on was also incorrect.

[@ReagansDad66]

@@LioBilly you should avail yourself to Peter's lectures where he lays out the problems with the supply chains for EV's. As he was trying to say, there are 5 countries that control the flow of oil while there are 30 countries (many of them bad actors) that control the flow of battery components. It's unsustainable in a world of supply chain failures.

[@MultiLucasito]

I wish it had been moderated a little better. It seemed disorganized. They didn't seems to get to any answers bc they moved of when there was a disagreement and only addressed difference in opinion superficially

[@scottmcloughlin4371]

@@LioBilly Young people imagine the "latest" and "story stocks" signify the "most important." That's not true at all. Food is way more important than computer chips. That means canning factories and flour mills are way more important than computer chips. Among chips, the "latest" gaming and phone chips are the least important chips. Most CPU's are busy processing payrolls and inventories or busy in embedded controllers for devices like washing machines. I ran a tech consulting firm and did due diligence for VC's. Hydrogen fuel cells will likely replace gas tanks, not batteries. Lithium batteries are too heavy.

[@jeffgast7215]

Peter shows these guys that just hoping and wanting something to happen is not reality. You have to have the resources to do things. Also, Peter understands what is happening to global trade and that when it's collapsing all this tech was reliant on it for it to maybe work. We need more people like Peter to tell it like it really is.

[@bendyloco]

People need to be more receptive to having their beliefs and opinions challenged, these guys included.

[@SvenGehlen]

based CIA geopolitical analyst owns optimistic nerds

[@brednbudr2406]

I think you missed 50% of the discussion. The opposing argument clearly articulated that technology changes the resource dependencies. Infact, he showed he had some glaaarring ignorances when it came to EV, and Tesla battery tech, specifically. He's very good at the macro, but his detailed data is lacking. Both sides made excellent points.

[@stevebarrera7513]

This video could be titled: A Gen Xer Schools 2 Millennials On How The World Really Works.

[@puranjaysingh1571]

I've read all of Peter's books and no one else has made more sense of the world geopolitically than him. ARK's ideas come across as outlandish at worst, wishful thinking at best. It's also clear that they have no real clue how modern manufacturing works, or the scale of materials and logistics it requires. To throw "3D printing" as an alternative in there was laughably out of touch.

[@angtr0m]

As a 40-year-old millennial that grew up on a dairy farm and lived the second half of my life working as a software engineer across the industries of telecom, healthcare, and e-commerce I enjoyed this more than I do watching them separately. Ark’s weakness is there are fundamental weaknesses in tech they are blindsided by. Peter’s weakness is seeing disruptive turnover puzzle pieces and how the global disruptions drive innovation. I never take anything either party says as gospel. Each perspective has merit. This discussion is what my mental struggle with the world in flux looks like.

[@himo9763]

* Peter’s weakness is seeing disruptive turnover puzzle pieces and how the global disruptions drive innovation* Like what kind of disruptive turnover puzzle pieces? You gave no examples (you don't really know yourself or you would have gave some and talked about how likely they are to happen. . .or you wouldn't be posting at all and work on these yourself...as you'd get super rich doing so) Also you do no talk about what innovation(s) you are talking about, nor do you mention what is actually NEEDED for innovation to happen (Peter does but you didnt listen) so really you have no argument, no explanation, and nothing but *As A 40 YeAhrAR OLLDDD FaRArmAER AnDd SoFTWRESArA eNgINEEr" As if that makes up for giving us nothing but saying *Peter is wrong and I am right because I said so.* Clearly your critical thinking skills are stuck at 0. You should permanently leave the internet.

[@tonyoramos1]

Amazing reply. Probably both right. My question is: could electric trucking possibly that impactful economically?

[@isaacmediatv9051]

You are so right.

[@nassar224]

@@tonyoramos1 Electric 'autonomous' trucking will totally change supply chains. A world filled with autonomous vehicles is difficult to imagine though

[@hammocktimenapper]

Excellent comment.

[@magibird9608]

If there was ever a better demonstration of the value of experience, I have not seen it. Bless Peter's patience.

[@theoraclerules5056]

@Magi Bird: Also his extensive gracious forbearance too!

[@jeannieneuser5316]

I know, right?! Though I love listening to Peter, this was painful. I thought he was a saint in dealing with this guy. Myself? If I were Peter, pretty early in this endeavor I'd have found myself asking this fella, "Are you an effing moron??"

[@jamesgeorge8915]

Bless the Ark fellas. Their optimism reminds me of when I too believed in a brave new world. Sadly Peter's understanding of how the world works is more representative of reality

[@TheWunderbaar]

All that VC money made them stupid.

[@TheAygung]

pessimists or "realists" did not invent or build the computers that made possible to watch this broadcast on youtube but optimists or believers did. Again not in "very favorable times" like peter is suggesting but instead they did in times of war (computers), famine (modern farming), or in times of hardships (so many examples to write). Any new invention that made life easier today were disruptive technological advancements of their time and born from the needs of the "no more sustainable" order that was already collapsing just like today. New always replaced the old. some will embrace it and some will complain and we need people like ark to do it for "Peters" to be able to continue to say no :)

[@buck4490]

True! When I was a fresh out I also thought that technology will find a solution for every problem. After many years of working in hardware design, you start to see the real limitations of technology. And one of the biggest is the need for profit in R&D and in manufacturing. The environment has become increasingly impatient for return on investment. Meeting next quarters forecast is all important to keeping the value of the company's stock up.

[@acamilop]

For real, it’s like they are talking about but coin and ev when that can’t happen when people don’t have food.

[@falsificationism]

COMPLETELY agree. But really excellent exchange. I appreciate the Ark fellas having him on.

[@ilhan1936]

Peter is the kind of guy you want to hear objective opinions from, even if it doesnt align with your vision. I like how analytical he is and how he stands his ground. That is power of knowledge in action!

[@rubadubsoldier1419]

It makes uncomfortable listening to these two guys one is over confident and the other lacks knowledge. As watcher from the Global South I understand Peter's stance. His argument is directed at Americans who will swallow almost anything he says because they want to believe that America will remain THE super power for ever. However what Peter and most Americans do not realize is that it's not only China and Russia that's involve in this rapid change from West to East but nature itself.

[@user-oz9yj5to7m]

Zeihan is a clown. We have tonnes of such “experts” in Russia with various degrees of insanity.

[@leskobrandon691]

@@rubadubsoldier1419 ok Greta. How dare us not believe the world is going to end. It's called climate change. It's just that....change. If you want to believe it's a climate crisis go ahead.

[@millenialmemoirs]

Zeihan is an animated story teller and propagandist.

[@craftsmanceramics8653]

ARK Invest : "I'm operating on good faith that nation states will still be able to generate electricity" Peter Zeihan : "I'm concerned that the building blocks which allow that coherence are being challenged"

[@nc92105]

ARK - obviously never heard of rolling blackouts. Soon-to-be-famine countries like India will lose their electricity, and nobody will care about jobs...once basic needs are lost.

[@DeathByOstrich]

This is why I sold all my ARK funds. They fundamentally don't want to recognize the realities of the world we live in and want to place investments in HOPE and TRUST. Peter just breaks down their hypotheses one by one with real talk, real facts and real geography. I learn something profound every time I listen to him.

[@ilevakam316]

Yeah, they are long on optimism and short or basic realities.

[@kirstenmadsen2628]

It's amazing how The younger guys simply can't envision a world where everything works in some form, the way it's 'always' ( their life time) has done. Never thought the advange to being older would help me navigate the future better.

[@JD-my5ek]

That's the key! I feel like they are assuming a lot of infrastructure being in place for things to work out eith tech which Peter is saying will not be the case. I think if the one guy had read the book (sounds like he didn't) then he might realize just how much Peter goes into detail on all the raw materials required and what countries are required to play ball for it to work

[@michaelcarl5843]

It's ego investment. For most people, history begins when they're born and ends when they die. He'll be culled when we hit hard times.

[@yourchannel4659]

I give an extreme amount of credit to the Ark people for having Peter on. It means to me that they aren't shills, they truly believe in the disruptive innovation to keep delivering results. But I think they are going to go down in economic history as buying the top.

[@wylldflower5628]

I think Peter agreed-I hope they do have him back next year, though I’d really like to see Peter in a convo with Cathie herself!!

[@Justin-cn3qu]

And, with their recent sale of COIN at $53, selling the bottom....

[@elektrotehnik94]

"But I think they are going to go down in economic history as buying the top." Ark's thesis is great, their technical buying & selling is severely lacking. I work full time on the stock market, if they just had the technical/ macro knowledge to time their trades right. ^^

[@patphatkitten]

Peter believes in innovation too, but it will take maybe 5 years for the new innovations to be set up and used to solve problems of labor shortage. Also there will be less cash, or investment money, available to make the new innovations occur, but that is what will help. In the meantime, the next ten years will be difficult for many in America. In other interviews he talks about innovations helping the whole world, but he sees it will take years to implement new tech .

[@toolegit2quit173]

@@wylldflower5628 yeah, I think it definitely needs to be Cathy and perhaps maybe another one of their senior analysts. These two guys simply did not have even a combined intellect to match that of Peter. Not that I disagree with a lot of arcs positions, just that these two guys did a very poor job of articulating most of them.

[@afmuina]

Wow, Peter is an extremely patient person.

[@patricktakada9551]

when you are the calm one in a discussion, you own that discussion.

[@harryhe6763]

Peter is so nice and polite

[@chaparro1097]

@@patricktakada9551 both were calmed, but Peter had the upper hand in knowledge and forecasting

[@NA-kx3vw]

Agree. It was glaringingly apparent Ark was out of their element.

[@GranolaBars11]

Agreed. I think both sides had points but Ark did a terrible job at being professional about it. The main guy even refused to get the title of Peter's book correct which is extremely rude.

[@theearlyfew5284]

Now I understand why battery engineers are such a huge fan of Peter Zeihan. First principle thinking only works if look at the world through the lens of reality, not speculating on what could be. This was a gem, thank you.

[@jbtechcon7434]

And ooooh man was this discussion a great example of the difference between having wonderful lovely ideas and having a thorough detailed understanding of how the mechanisms of the world actually function.

[@martinlutherkingjr.5582]

First principe thinking ignores reality in favor of physics.

[@philipwoodgate9555]

@@martinlutherkingjr.5582 physics is reality

[@mik2137]

Judging on this interview, Peter has a very limited understanding of EVs and batteries. Thus, no battery eng. will be a fan in any sense of Peter.

[@jameshorton3692]

@@martinlutherkingjr.5582 physics is reality.

[@zwatwashdc]

Ark guy sounds like he lives in the fantasy bubble where things are what we imagine them to be, rather than where the rubber hits the pavement. Young tech kids have completely over estimated their importance in the “ark” of history.

[@tulipalll]

Absolutely. They've decided that they are the chosen ones and everyone else is stupid. You can see it on his face. Of course, he is very smart, but his self importance might as well be branded right on his forehead.

[@muricafy6798]

This clash is actually interesting though. Recall the Soviet Union was run by people who were brainwashed with political ideology. And they ran their economy to the ground trying to hold up their political inertia. The Ark dudes represent the new generation that was "educated" to believe in globalisation. I really wonder how the tech and finance people will react when shit hits the fan.

[@jebbuckerson]

Why does he talk like cheerleader?

[@fedup1606]

Yup! Just another hopium fund.

[@2outhpawmma158]

Oooo wee I can smell what's cookin from over here

[@8888cliff]

I stumbled upon PZ on youtube about 12 weeks ago. Once I realized he'd called energy prices since 2015 AND the Ukraine conflict in 2022, well, I've ordered every book and have videos like this going on in the background all the time. I wonder if that's representative and he's seeing a massive rise in visibility

[@barryraymond9004]

I discovered him 7 years ago. Nothing that happens in the world is surprising to me anymore. It is all basically written down and in you tube videos that are 10 years old. I live in Texas though and see first hand the changes that shale has produced while most folks are completely ignorant of the true technological and industrial shift happening.

[@bradbel]

Ditto, I found him around the same time after the Ukraine war started. The only thing he seems to be a little weak on is how Ukraine can win the war. He feels as if its still “only a matter of time” before Ukraine loses. Having said that, his almost extreme views on China seem to be spot on. China is soooo vulnerable and does not seem to understand it.

[@barryraymond9004]

@@bradbel If russia mobilizes they will win in Ukraine assuming they don’t collapse.

[@asahisagoiboi3517]

Look up George Friedman also a good source.

[@pyrioncelendil]

Yeah here's the thing about Peter: he started out somewhat visible due to his work in Stratfor and his first book actually getting a proper publisher represents that, but the second book he had to self-publish because everyone he talked to was up to their neck in the collective delusion that countries don't invade other countries anymore. The third book hit the shelves right as covid started messing everything up and he consequently had to revise the timetables for a lot of his predictions consequently happening in weeks instead of years, but his predictions largely bore themselves out... and then Russia invaded Ukraine right as he said they would all the way back in his first book, and all of a sudden he's been in very high demand as someone who saw this coming close to a decade ago when almost nobody else was paying attention.

[@redrodlrowon]

Actually a fascinating interview. I've never seen an interviewer (the older one) look so stunningly out of his depth on so many issues. Zeihan is a force to be reckoned with and these two, however likeable, were no match for him. Respect for posting this though.

[@katlynklassen809]

@@mylesmontgomery517 how is he arrogant? His perspective is bigger and more complete. He is not afraid or timid about it is all

[@grannyannie2948]

I'm a first time listener,and I'm not sure they both look young to me. But the body language and the mannerisms of the one with the white ear buds, is that he's lying.

[@grannyannie2948]

@@mylesmontgomery517 I tracked this video down to hear Peter. He's very arrogant in tone compared to people in my country. But he makes more sense about geopolitics and how the world will play out that anything I've heard in forty years.

[@richbirecki]

@@mylesmontgomery517 no, they did fine in the btc debate. Peter is wrong on that end.

[@dzhao86]

These 14 year olds from ARK just got a spanking lmao this interview was so painful

[@tulipalll]

The one dude didn't learn a DAMN thing though 😑

[@scienceandmathHandle]

As an engineer, Yes solar/green tech "could" work(though I still have my doubts on how without globalization), but Peter put it correctly, when you can't buy fertilizer, you are not buying batteries or Teslas. If you cant turn on the lights your not buying starlink(s) or even computers for that matter. If you can't feed your family your not buying self driving EV trucks lol. All those things are great, but when you can't keep the lights on or get clean water, or even EAT, then the rest is out the window in a de-globalized world.

[@jwill9877]

I agree with Peter on most of what he says. My only question is why is deglobalization going to continue happen? The pandemic caused problems don't get me wrong. But what makes him think the old way wont be rebuilt. Main security things a country needs will be in house but why will every other aspect go through the expensive and painful process of decoupling?

[@cooldudecs]

@@jwill9877 demography and feminism in the west has killed population growth. All of this will unravel in a deglobalized world.

[@Amoki86]

​@@jwill9877 You should actually buy Peter Zeihan's newest book for that. In short: 1) depopulation trend around the world means that worldwide consumption pattern will change. Only the USA, France, and New Zealand have a somewhat healthy population to sustain consumption patterns; everyone else will need heavy exports to stay wealthy. 2) shale oil revolution in the states means that the USA no longer need to play world police to ensure access to energy and petroleum. Without the US Navy, who's going to keep the Middle East and Asia in good behaviour and not go into shooting wars? 3) the USA really is now self-sufficient and only need Mexico and Latin America as trade partners. That means that global supply chain can go to hell and the Yanks no longer care. 4) Covid really accelerates a lot of the above. 5) world fertiliser access is also getting limited due to the above.

[@bighands69]

@@jwill9877 Most of the world is not a free market democracy. Most countries outside of Europe and North America are top down authoritarian cultures. Those cultures are one dimensional with very little resilient and are not capable of functioning outside of globalism.

[@elektrotehnik94]

@@Amoki86 Yanks really don't like terrorists, collective trauma. They will care for 20+ years still, the 9/11 terrorist trauma (& WW2 Pearl Harbour trauma) of what not engaging in pre-emptive conflict far away from USA homeland, doesn't go away that quickly. Depopulation will impact (so strongly) only if robots & AI doesn't take over a lot of work, in a meaningful way. If you don't understand the pace of development there, you overplay your "depopulation" economic panic.

[@dameongeppetto]

Summary - Peter: here are the facts and figures on my thesis ARK bro's: imagine...

[@jeremygrundza9637]

The bro's don't even know the specifics of Tesla's market and the specifics of the cars they sell in China, while claiming to be experts on the matter.

[@craftsmanceramics8653]

@@jeremygrundza9637 Peter : "I've been on the phone with a number of Tesla people and that doesn't sound quite right" ARK Bro's : "I'm objectively right"

[@yoooyoyooo]

When they proposed satelite internet as a solution for some autocratic country banning the internet I knew that they are the lost cause. If an autocratic country wanted they could ban electricity. And the idea that you are going to put a satellite dish on your building to receive internet in a country that bans it is simply ridiculous.

[@gpsfinancial6988]

@@jeremygrundza9637 They do know about those, Peter is wrong in that matter.

[@rishabhjain7543]

Peter: hmm, fingers crossed

[@stepankotek]

When the guest has a better audio equipment then the host.

[@nathanielhunter1280]

Depending on the trendy air pods says all I need to hear about the ARK bros

[@25Soupy]

And a better grasp on reality.

[@ericwery4655]

I know Peters volume kept louder and then softer

[@chaparro1097]

can´t believe people don´t figure the audio quality in 2022

[@johnsnider8236]

But...but magical batteries and crypto will save everyone.

[@tonylgoodman]

This is the best Peter Zeihan video I've seen. The back and forth sheds light on the tensions in the upcoming decades. It's not a question of who's right but who's most right. It's a race between some really concerning global trends and technology. Ark only sees the positive effects of technology, there are definitely negative effects also. The other wild cards are political and cultural responses to all the coming challenges.

[@th3b0yg]

I liked seeing Peter in this format as well. His talks are very on script, and his interviews usually are also. It's good to see him a little less scripted.

[@wylldflower5628]

What a fascinating show-I was a bit stunned after I looked these fellows up because this had sounded so much like a “generational lens” conversation! “You don’t know what you don’t know” and it takes persisting effort to overcome that. I had to go back and re-watch the whole thing with the idea that Brett is older than I’d thought. I give Brett full marks for stopping himself to ask questions but I hope he’s gone back and re-evaluated every facet of every step toward his conclusions because he seems to assume things about trade access & connectivity that seem unwise. Idealism, innovation & creativity are all great but whenever groups don’t take into account the big picture-like Germany & solar!-they tend to create a new mess trying to force their ideas along. It’s a bit worrying to me that I (an RN) saw some potholes they seemed to skim right over. I’ve followed PZ for awhile now and he’s so good at analyzing a broader base; he has also shown himself as having access to and integrates-key here-widely diverging info sets. There are elements I hope Peter’s wrong about but time will tell for those. I would Very much like to hear a long conversation between Cathie Woods and Peter Zeihan, especially regarding China! I’ve heard quite a few of Cathie’s In The Know videos, many of Peter’s I like both of their perspectives and would love to hear how they each view them.

[@michaelcarl5843]

It's not that hard. Learn history, and know that human nature is a constant.

[@toddstair3279]

Peter's face the whole time says "that's cute, you're trying so hard"

[@llegatodoloquetehacefalta7065]

Guys, that was amazing! So brave of you to bring in a giant that smash all your arguments! Admirable! How advance our society should be to handle a discussion like that in friendly terms… thanks a lot!

[@tonycrawford5591]

Peter seems to be only man in this conversation that seems to understand reality of the world...

[@liltunafish1471]

Would love Lex Fridman to interview Peter too

[@cooldudecs]

They both agree mostly

[@Yapperinos]

Even if he didn't, Lex would let Peter talk about what he knows instead of pushing his own views, asking (mostly) good questions along the way it would also be funny to hear Peter talk about love lol

[@mrchicago9]

Peter was very knowledgeable and thoughtful on the topics, but this was the worst ARK Invest video to date. ARK was unprepared to discuss things with the level of expertise Peter has.

[@25Soupy]

I know right. It's nice to "imagine" how you wish the world should be and the price of reality are two different things.

[@Thyrfing666]

To be fair, basically no one has the level of expertise to talk to PZ at the same level. His breadth of knowledge is incredible.

[@BravoFourTactical]

They live in an echo chamber, clearly. I am shocked at the degree of unrealistic thinking. Short ARK!

[@ericwery4655]

Agreed

[@alanlight7740]

ARK Invest was not prepared for Peter simply denying verifiable facts, like the fact that Tesla is using LFP batteries for full sized cars with around 300 miles of range.

[@dmenace2003]

I think Peter understands an older world that is always in need for survival, and these two guys have never really experienced scarcity. In reality, I can see where Peter is coming from..🤔..

[@asdisskagen6487]

You really hit the nail on the head with this interview. I do not work in a field where I am exposed to younger "tech-savvy" people and was absolutely shocked at the level of naivete exhibited by them. I now have a much better appreciation for other of my generation who are deeply concerned about what happens when the younger generation takes over and is monumentally unequipped to deal with the realities of the world.

[@blakejones4314]

This is my favorite video I've watched of Peter. I love the friction in the conversation and the apparent disagreements. :) Helps me learn more!

[@darshuetube]

another thing is small transport ships would cost more per ton to ship, no economy of scale per ship. And yes, if you also have security issue.....

[@chrisg8995]

Oof. Peter just wiped the floor with ARK. A good example of the cons of having such a young staff. Cathie has been drinking the kool aid of young optimism for a while now, and this is a great example of what that looks like when really put to the test. ARK needs to hire Peter to keep everyone there grounded in reality asap.

[@NA-kx3vw]

Greg I have admired Kathy but have started thinking the same thing in that she is putting to much faith into guys like these two.

[@richbirecki]

How? Definitely not in the bitcoin debate. He’s out of his depth there, and it makes me doubt the other things he says

[@age_of_reason]

Right. And you're so smart that you can tell who's right and who's wrong here. Neither one of these cooks made a remotely coherent argument. You're just bandwagoning to boost your pathetic little retail investor ego. Buahaha!

[@chuckpool78]

Peter just schooled the kids.

[@thomasidzikowski1520]

Peter makes a lot of arguments by fiat. Meaning the descend from his on high pronouncements, but those generally come without statements of fact to back them up. This also allows him to fall back on a "my sources are better than your sources" argument I.e. Peter stated solar technology "Today" could not meet general power needs. He never states what he thinks that is. I feel Peter is 3-7 years out of date in his understanding of technology because he uses official government sources of information to back his credibility. After making such statements he handwaves a lot. Although sometimes he admits he's not an expert. I think he thinks he's an expert in many areas he's not.

[@awesomers]

A great podcast with respect even in the face of disagreement. I welcome this kind of content anytime. All parties did a great job. I’ve preordered Peter’s book already and I’m so thrilled to find this great debate!

[@mountaintopchalet]

Peter is brilliant.

[@jamesg2382]

Man I gotta say Ark didn’t come out well from this interview. I didn’t hear any counter arguments that were particularly compelling against what Peter said. Not to say that Peter was right on everything, but if you hold a compelling position, you should be able to argue it convincingly. I didn’t see that in this discussion. Thanks for the discussion.

[@jsbethke]

Love how Peter's pointing in the direction of some of the earlier tech-won't solve all-problems prophets (my favorite being James Howard Kunstler). Very reassuring to hear him temper that whole attitude with some basic facts.

[@oldmgtow5323]

Yes. Amazing how these two smart guys who preach alternative energy don't seem to have a basic understanding of what electricity is or how it really works.

[@craftsmanceramics8653]

@@oldmgtow5323 Makes you wonder how 'smart' they actually are. If you misunderstand the basics of an industry you are investing in I would argue you are not very smart.

[@jfarmer1711]

@@oldmgtow5323, that's the point really. To them electricity has always been there and will always do so. Any outages are just for minutes or a few hours at worst. Having to do without or ration your electrical usage for an extended period of time makes it clear how much in our society is dependant on stable and reliable electricity.

[@nickratti5796]

It’s scary these folks invest money for other people. It just seems like none of them want to go to the next level of thought

[@kirstenmadsen2628]

Guys!!! There is a reason why there is electricity when you put the plug in. Growing up in Africa teaches you a LOT 😱

[@cloudmaster3235]

Happy ya'll had Peter Zeihan on your podcast. Great talk.

[@tbone5654]

Now I know why ARKK is down 70% from the top.

[@tobincooper4267]

I've invested I them. I agree. The world in which they are investing for may be further away than they and I thought.

[@nathanwadekillebrew386]

You beat me to this comment… kudos

[@OK-Computer]

This comment is concise yet has more truth than Arkk prospectus.

[@pyckiparen]

😂😂😂 I laughed as I read your comment

[@timhenry8078]

Those two are idealists. Idealism is not compatible with reality. Ev's and bitcoin won't work simply because you really really believe in them. I got a good laugh when PZ said you just described the dollar. Lmao

[@aeonrex476AD]

Zeihan giving a masterclass in realism over tech-wishing

[@ioannisd00]

I love this conversation! An actual back and forth debate of point of views with a reasoning behind it. More of this please. 😊

[@JXY2019]

This is great. I always like to listen to what Peter has to say but he rarely gets challenged.

[@michaela2634]

The gentleman from Ark is such a tech optimist that he is blind to reality.

[@michaeldobson107]

And he wiped the floor with them. He was extremely patient with their incredible naivety and optimism. These two seem to think that everything that makes EV and autonomous vehicles function will always be readily available to anyone, anywhere and at any time. They seem to forget that governments tend to think otherwise.

[@tacocruiser4238]

Not much of a challenge lol.

[@AgentMoler]

I listen to a lot of Zeihan's interviews so I am very familiar with his arguments. I think the frustrating thing about these ARK bros' questions is that they seem to not be able to IMAGINE anything but a continuation and linear outgrowth of the present world order. Zeihan's prediction of essentially a new Dark Age which will envelope the planet is historically validated (Bronze Age Collapse and...the Dark Age). Having said that, if you choose to not believe that global shipping and national economies won't collapse, then Zeihan's interpretation can be disregarded but given what we are seeing now with reoriented supply chains, extensive inflation of basic commodities, and an increased skepticism in globalism and global trade, I happen to think Zeihan might have the more correct thesis.

[@USGrant21st]

It's an ARK generation, who spent all their forming years in the atmosphere of manipulation, brainwashing, and easy money. The impending market crash, bitcoin going back to zero, and big changes in economy will force them to grow up quickly.

[@shawnjavery]

Honestly I wouldn't even go so far as to say its a new dark age. Just a return to how countries have historically operated, which is to say petty and self destructive. Granted I don't think things are going to play out exactly as catastrophically as he predicts, but I find it a lot easier to buy than things remaining as is in the future.

[@AgentMoler]

@@shawnjavery I don’t fully buy everything he says and Dark Age is the “best” analogy I could find for a time in which the world regresses in some ways like production/civilly/technologically. I think the thing that makes his argument so compelling for me is that it focuses on some very fundamental things that are hard to refute, namely the changing demographics (hundreds of millions of new 30-50 year old humans aren’t unexpectedly going to come out of nowhere) and less people will most likely equal less capital, and making risky bets on ideas, companies, or investments is not going to be as easy as it is now when the interest rates go up. I think something he should articulate more is an end of “cheap” money and what effects that will have on society, I believe his anti Bitcoin stance is tied to that (which I somewhat disagree with).

[@hankhillsnrrwurethra]

Hurry up robots, lot of jobs going undone

[@isldstormhawaii4084]

@@AgentMoler Peters argument is pretty straight forward when it comes to bitcoin. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have had their values explode not because people want it as an actual currency. But as a speculative investment vehicle. When the markets contract and capital flows become tighter. The speculative investment goes away. And thus the value of the cryptocurrencies drop. We are witnessing this in real time. Why put money into bitcoin as a investment vehicle when you have much more stable investments in stocks and US treasure notes? In a tight capital market you become risk adverse. Bitcoin is the opposite of that, it is unstable. What the hosts are not understanding is that cryptocurrencies raise in value is the speculative investors that came to play. It is basically a misunderstanding of why Bitcoins value was so high. The hosts believe the value is because of what bitcoin is as a cryptocurrency. What peter is telling them is the value of bitcoin isn’t because it is a cryptocurrency, it is because it was an investment vehicle.

[@ameroamigo1]

I loved this video. So glad to see folks with different opinions and different facts having a really excellent conversation. Thank you both. Very informational. I was unaware of many of these issues.

[@artistforfreedom]

Just retired and have resolved to sit back and watch this next generations reinvent the world. Go make it your own. Knowing just a faction of what Peter uses to understand how the wheel works has been my success.

[@joestergios6557]

Such a great exchange, the very definition of respectful, "vigorous" discussion.

[@generalchemistrywithmike]

Peter does a great job of bringing the new wave investing down to earth. Unfortunately, people my age remember every future thing or movement which soon crumbled to the ground when everything went South, as it does every decade or so. I love his insights. I didn't enjoy, but appreciated how he dispelled the hopes of those seeking unicorns.

[@michaela2634]

The gentleman from Ark lives in a bubble and Zeihan was trying to gently let them know their bubble is about to burst. For the rest of us who can't afford solar panels and EVs Zeihan's perspective makes a lot more sense. At the end of the day, without food who cares if you have Starlink?

[@mm5478]

So this is what knowledgeable and respectful debate looks like. I’m in the US and we’ve seemingly jettisoned knowledge and respect years ago. Thanks for the informative video.

[@theknifedude1881]

Peter certainly knows his subject better and has the figures @ his fingertips. The other guy has great ideas and hopes and Peter Zeihan may be in favor of the ideas but has the figures showing why it may not be possible @ the moment.

[@somethingginterestingg4275]

They post all their figures publically.

[@bqdavis1]

Very impressed that they posted the whole thing unedited.

[@Argentina-cz3ru]

Makes them look reallll bad lol

[@johnsnider8236]

I am surprised as well. He destroyed these kids whole outlook on life in less than 60 minutes. Will they listen...probably not.

[@Fred_in_Oz]

Tech is great. But Peter is right, it only works well in rich countries that can support and afford it. The real take away from this discussion is that those who know history understand the world has changed. The charmed era of the globalised world is falling away. And it’s not coming back anytime soon.

[@dingfeldersmurfalot4560]

Many aspects of it weren't charmed anyway, except for stockholders, which most U.S. citizens, at least, are not.

[@ericwery4655]

You said the magic word right there; History. They cut history classes out of school and replaced it with social studies class right about the mid-80s. So all the kids went to school after the 80s did not get history class. Which of course was by Design in our governments attempt at dumbing-down the population. Sadly it looks like it worked

[@venomlink2033]

The one thing I gleaned from this is that the world is about to see *massive* amounts of wealth inequality between nations even compared to now. Rich countries will have energy self-sufficiency, machine-learning-driven agriculture, and economic hegemony. Poor countries will be lucky if they ever see economic growth again, and will probably experience famine or worse.

[@dingfeldersmurfalot4560]

@@venomlink2033 Likely mass population mobilization to escape desperate situations.

[@kurtnunn6116]

This was very interesting to watch / listen. I am glad both sides dealt with the disagreements in a manner where they sought not to win the moment but rather to explore together testing their own opinions.

[@slypigno9835]

That was really a great conversation. Well worth the listen.

[@CuriousRayMcGill]

Great discussion! So much better than the one way softball sessions of normal.

[@pushplayent]

Please keep these videos coming! This is one of the best conversations I've heard in a long time. Please ignore the haters in the comments that do not seem to understand that you guys are testing your hypothesis and improving/building out your models through these conversations. The negative commenters need to go watch CNBC and Jim Cramer as they are likely looking for a sound bite to confirm their biases. Thank you for putting this video out and thank you to the participants.

[@salusa_secundus]

I want Ark to be right but Peter is making a lot more sense.

[@fireballfpv1207]

You guys need to have another discussion for sure! Been following both ARK and Peter for years and years

[@mikexie8638]

I would argue that these ARK people have not been outside of US or know much about other countries, they should travel more to understand the global picture instead of just focusing on innovation. Where would all the EV energy come from? where is electricity from? all nuclear energy? remember conservation of energy learned in high school?

[@UnbenutzerKanalname]

i'd assume they take supply chains into account, but the way they stumbled to answer those questions makes me a bit skeptical honestly..

[@JonathanRootD]

solar, nuclear and hydro etc.

[@richiemello3447]

@@UnbenutzerKanalname I hear you about the stumbling of the answers but I also feel like Peter is just good at being confident in his ignorance. He made several claims about millennials, Bitcoin and hard money that I took issue with.

[@lucasglowacki4683]

I don’t think they’ve been outside of California much less the rest of the world🙄

[@Andrew_Sherman]

I find this argument perplexing. The loss of energy we have from using fossil fuels (drilling, transportation, conversion, ect.) vastly underpreforms a system just built from the ground up off a different energy source.

[@wiltonmills]

So good to hear a civilised debate between people with opposing views. Thanks so much for that!

[@georgeholloway3981]

All in all I thought this was an extremely valuable and worthwhile discussion. I liked the fact that the participants respectfully challenged and interrogated each others' ideas, much more so than is usual on a KZbin channel.

[@zwatwashdc]

I am impressed that Ark is leaving this video up.

[@mr.makeit4037]

I would lLISTEN to every point that Peter makes. And then ask pertinent questions that build on his arguments. Then we all can learn more about what possibly confronts us going forward.

[@tulipalll]

You would be a better interviewer than these Ark invest crypto bros

[@adamrafal6587]

I learned some good things in this debate!

[@jere8187]

I enjoy listening to Peter Zeihan as he has a unique way of communicating what he thinks and seems very smart and tuned-in. He often predicts serious geopolitical and economic events, at least a few of them (according to this video and a few others) having come true. Personally I dislike all the predicting that goes on in the world. I guess many of us need some assurances in a world that is hard to make sense of and seems very random to me. Anyway my issue here seems minor but towards the end he states that when someone retires they sell all their stocks and buy T-Bills and get very conservative. I worked as a financial planner and wealth advisor for many years and I never had a client do this nor knew of other advisors saying this or ever heard this before. Perhaps Zeihan knows something here that I don't but when someone seems so wrong about something I'm confident I'm knowledgeable about, it does call into question much of what they say. I'll continue to listen but a red flag has gone up.

[@karenreddy]

This. This is what completely obliterating multiple delusional point of views looks like. This is financial Mike Tyson at work, knowing out arguments with single short hooks. Bravo, Peter Zeihan. I hope these guys are actual investors and don't get married to their ego and ideas, but to reality.

[@Kenneth_James]

Most of everything Peter says comes true in my experience.

[@tulipalll]

He's not right about everything but it sure feels like he is getting way more right than wrong. Which really sucks for us right now.

[@llewxamj]

Read his article on Tesla in 2019. He said TSLA was not going to exist in a few years just like how he just said btc will not exist. How did the TSLA take turn out?

[@kenmolloy1645]

Good debate! I’ve been listening to PZ for years, first good challenge to his conclusions I’ve heard.

[@johnsnider8236]

Was it a challenge or just kids with fingers in their ears yelling nuh-uh magical batteries and crypto will save the world.

[@topiasr628]

This was a fabulous debate! Both sides arguing a point and making great points. Thank you!

[@markpukey8]

Great interview. I appreciated that they disagreed on so much, then let their guest present his thoughts and ideas. It was an interview, not a debate or an argument and I learned more from hearing their intelligent questions than I normally do from any interview. The softball interview style doesn't really expose new information like these challenging questions did.

[@jasongood5499]

I agreed what Peter has said about the different demographics group mindset. I am apart of the Gen X & Y. I was born in 1982 and I'm a Software Engineer. I have studied and have the best college degree ever and I have no problem getting another job doing computers. There are so many IT jobs out there that they cannot find enough people or Labor to fill the overall demand.

[@cooldudecs]

Not enough smart people

[@ShadyRonin]

Do you think the IT market will ever oversature? I am interested in a career change but I fear that by the time I've developed the skills to do software engineering, even if it takes me only 1-2 years of hardcore dedication and/or schooling / bootcamps, that I will be entering an increasingly competitive market and that it will be harder and harder to find work as a result. Does this sound like a reasonable concern based on what you know?

[@grebulon9558]

"Why is fixed supply important?" Really?!?!? Scarcity!!!!😮 😃

[@yusikhan]

Great debate! Great to see good ideas presented and why they may or may not work in a civil discussion.

[@milastran663]

Fantastic guys. Learn a lot from both

[@thermalreboot]

ARK dude doesn't get the idea that Solar and Wind are fun novelty technologies, but it can't scale to the size needed nor are the raw materials readily available.

[@falsificationism]

Regarding rail versus truck, Peter's absolutely right and it's not even close. Rail (steel-on-steel) is simply orders of magnitude lower cost than truck (rubber-on-tar), mostly by virtue of friction and its attendant energy cost. Rail is, and always has been, the next best thing (the first best is water--the existence of extensive river networks is a key contributor to American success). It's a shame the car manufacturers and oil companies ripped out our amazing rail system. We can and SHOULD re-establish old rail lines.

[@alanlight7740]

The rail lines that were ripped out were local commuter rail, and they were ripped out because too few passengers were using them for them to be profitable. Rail has its advantages, especially for freight, but it has many problems when it comes to passenger travel outside densely populated areas. On the other hand, America has some of the most profitable railways in the world, making their money almost entirely from moving freight - and as energy generation has moved from coal (requiring trains) to natural gas (using pipelines) a great deal of freight traffic has been moved from trucks to trains as capacity formerly used for coal became available. On the third hand, The Boring Company has a proposal for a new system that could make freight at least twice as fast as current trucks (which are already faster than trains) while reducing freight costs to below that of trains.

[@TheBandit7613]

None of what you wrote is true. The US has a 140,000 mile rail network that is the envy of the world. The US is number one for freight ton miles. Passenger? No, we don't want to sit on a train for days to travel distances. We get on planes instead. It's way faster. Travelling a few hundred miles, we drive our private comfy cars, thousands we fly and rent a car when we get there. If there was demand, we sit on a train.

[@ShadyRonin]

@@alanlight7740 do you know where I can read about the Boring Company proposal? I know of the BC already (follow Elon's side projects pretty closely), but haven't heard of this proposal before!

[@mikeo2693]

Thank you for putting this content out there. It was a most productive display of differences of opinion in attempting to tackle civilization altering challenges. Even when the tone got a tad disparaging, it didn’t derail the exchange. It was eye opening in terms of issues presented but disheartening in that is is highly unlikely that type of substantive exchange is happening among those in a position of power and with an ability to help lead us through these tectonic challenges ahead. Thanks for not devolving It was really important stuff. I’m really rooting for the ark point of view to play out and soften the demographic death at terminal velocity that appears to be ahead. What wasn’t covered and it’s the most logical next step. Those without the population to become self sufficient are likely to pursue what’s missing, whether it’s resources or labor through coercive means Ie Russia

[@user-cn8vb9hh5z]

It's great listening to these analysts get schooled in reality!

[@dollarette]

Peter killed it, shows what a strong education and some experience can do

[@philbiker3]

And a great team - Peter has a staff!

[@genkimachina]

Great discussion gentlemen. I would like to see the ARK gentlemen learn to operate from first principles. PZ's prognostications may be altered by some leapfrog technology, but we shouldn't assume all these techs will come to pass. Additionally, a population collapse will bring innovation to a snails pass as we are used to it.

[@jpasillas72]

Ageed, Great discussion. Wouldn't a fair amount of Brain Power migrate to places where food and energy are plentiful.?

[@eddiepugmire447]

Great comment - I wholeheartedly agree. A combination of both thought processes would be beneficial for ARKK. Peter understands current state, which is needed to get to target state.

[@falsificationism]

Great point!

[@genkimachina]

@@jpasillas72 USA is a great beneficiary of that.

[@marekan1410]

I like zeihan even with his obvious blindspots... But compared to ARK team, he is a genius!

[@ReadingDave]

I like hearing all the reasons renewables have difficulty so I can work on those problems.

[@USGrant21st]

Peter did a great job as usual, he always presents his ideas with an amazing clarity, providing facts and numbers, I suppose he polished his presentations quite a lot. I'm disappointed with the other two guys though, they showed little understanding of the subjects. I don't know what's the deal with that, but a lot of millennials demonstrate cultish behavior (blind faith) when it comes to technology and especially bitcoin. Perhaps mass formation psychologists can explain that phenomenon.

[@NA-kx3vw]

You just answered a puzzling question I have had with the millennials fascination with bitcoin. Cultish.

[@AgentMoler]

I think what we millennials have a hard time understanding is an era when cheap money ends. It’s easy enough to look at the 70-80s and the crazy high interest rates to know that money won’t be cheap forever. When cheap money ends, so does a lot of this speculative investing which crypto needs to flourish.

[@oldmgtow5323]

Cult-like ignorance maybe? It certainly seems to be a trait of that generation. I certainly wouldn't look to them for investment advice.

[@NA-kx3vw]

@@AgentMoler Wow! For a generation to have such blind faith in something unproven and so speculative seems kind of dangerous. But. Each generation had its own lessons...bit coin could be the millenials.

[@Ragerian]

that cultish attitude is just cliquey behavior which is pretty commonplace for these generations(millennials and zoomers)

[@amadeus0123]

After listening to this debate, I now understand why ARK funds are 70% down from their all time highs. Seem like a bunch starry eyed 20 -30 year olds who can't stomach a dose of realism in their fantastic projections.

[@patrickdoyle2510]

I love it when tech nerds talk about investing....

[@spiriscibridgingspiritscie3431]

Props to Ark for standing by their positions and posting this. I take Peter Zs perspective on nearly each subject where they disagree (especially BitCoin) but it’s good to debate. If the Dollar could simply have its unit of economic value (value of the Dollar) stabilized against a commodities index, we could at least have clear and prosperous financial markets while much of the world sinks into chaos.

[@ottizjoseph3267]

"You should read the white paper". I'd like to add and "the bitcoin standard" The last 5minutes of this video makes me want to see a conversation between Michael Saylor of $MSTR and Peter Zeihan. That would be fun to watch :)

[@boidkan]

They both would just rant and talk over each other.

[@Kenneth_James]

This guy was like DO NOT say no to EV's man TESLA is our big thing Peter! Tesla still uses the cobalt in half of its new cars produced as of a month ago. I thought they were cobalt free too.

[@lighthousesaunders7242]

Half is much less than 100% which it was 2 years ago. The trend is obvious. And new battery chemistries are rapidly unfolding.

[@yoooyoyooo]

Also starlink is a joke. Star link is expensive way to do what satelite internet had before. All you get by using starlink over other systems is higher ping but for 100 higher price. I mean price now is not 100x but that's because stsrlink is operating with a loss. Higher ping only matters if you are playing video games. Star link thing is nothing new it's actually a very bad idea that is going away.

[@JS-bk4pn]

They use very little cobalt, Apple uses more cobalt in a Mac Book than Tesla does in a car.

[@raelized]

i don't remember tesla saying they were cobalt free. they did say that they are steering away from using cobalt and will be cobalt free.

[@taiwanjohn]

No one claims that Tesla is 100% Cobalt free yet, including the ARK guys in this podcast (tbh this was not their best work). But Tesla _is_ making good progress in phasing it out. Meanwhile, Peter's assessment of LFP batteries is _WAY_ off the mark... quite unusual for him, actually. But hey, nobody's perfect.

[@jasonwerth606]

Listening to this conversation is like my 5 year old neighbor telling me how to frame a house.

[@Stupid9808]

I have been following PZ since '13. I understand his assessments givin the data that is available. I like that you disagreed on many topics, I subscribed for more of an elaboration of your critique. Both sides handled the discussion well, thank you for the entertainment.

[@ArtfulDodger566]

If i own ARK, i will sell it after this inteview, thier investment analysis is mostly based hope and wishful thinking. And not enough breath of information of the role of geopolitcs in thier vision of the world. Its mostly hope and technobabble.

[@tytso]

The interesting thing is this interview was originally published on May 5th. It was only a few days later that Luna and UST collapsed, taking the value of Bitcoin down by 25% or so. I wonder if ARK folks would have been quite so arrogant about Bitcoin if this interview had taken place a week or two later.

[@tulipalll]

I don't think the primary ark dude in this video learned a damn thing. Even after this interview and bitcoin and ust catching fire and burning, I guarantee you he is as arrogant as ever. Completely secure in his assumption of his own omniscience. 😂

[@junkscience6397]

lol Good point. (And yes, they're still arrogant, you better believe!)

[@shawnrobertdoyle5242]

I broadly agree with Zeihan's predictions, but I think he's wrong about crypto. We've been through this before with the internet. When NetScape added encryption to the web browser (so people couldn't spy on your browsing) the government tried to ban it and classified it as military munitions. Today, encryption is everywhere on the internet and I likely wouldn't be able to make this comment without it

[@bobwoodward3237]

ZEIHAN IS A BEAST_ Didn't lose a single argument !!

[@teslanewstonight]

Great discussion. We need more. 🤖🧡

[@markhendricks331]

shows me that ARK is in a group think stage not able to think in alternative perspectives on the world that is yet to come.

[@MJB0328]

Brett couldn’t get one book name straight.

[@mot6822]

I gotta say Peter is one funny geopolitical expert. I believe he is one of the very few who sees the bigger picture. Although I like ARKinvest and believe they are smart, Peter makes them look like they are living in lala land. Overall it was informative and entertaining .

[@ohyeah5601]

Enjoyable and Respectful conversations 👍

[@AlexanderBachmann]

Really loved this conversation.

[@MrFuckoffdipshit]

If they ever make Office Space 2, Bret the ARK guy, especially his mannerisms & affectations, could be the blueprint for the 2020s version of Bill Lumbergh.

[@MartyMcTube]

uh, yeeeeah....

[@basti71]

Great Comedy.thank you.

[@basti71]

Need to sell my ARK bags NOW

[@hartmanpeter]

Useful Thank you.

[@JagdeepSandhuSJC]

Peter's analysis is right on the money. He is a realist.