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James Rickards, best-selling author of Currency Wars, spoke with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough about how he finds the truth, the continuation of the currency wars, what the Fed gets wrong and much more in this exclusive interview.
Jim’s first appearance on Hedgeye TV in May 2014 was met with wide acclaim, and he did not disappoint in his return to Stamford for Hedgeye’s first ever,live “Market Marathon”held in January. After 45 minutes of raw & unfiltered commentary on markets and the people that move them, Rickards and McCullough turned it over to the viewers, offering an extended viewer Q&A session powered by user-submitted questions.
01:26 Currency Wars can go on for 5, 10, 15 years
4:38 No one at the Treasury understands international monetary systems
5:25 Leading indicator of extreme volatility?Low volatility
6:45 What is that Jim Rickards knows…that you don’t?
8:20 What is Base Bayes’ Theorem
10:57 Analyzing insider trading on 9/11 using Base Bayes’ Theorem
13:12 Rickards: I am expecting no interest rate increase in 2015
14:55 Why Rickards can make a better call then Janet Yellen (she’s using equilibrium models)
15:40 Fed Insider: QE is Murky
17:01 Bayesian vs Frequentist
19:45 Economists are wrong 70%, The Fed’s forecast have has been wrong 100% in the last 5 years
21:00 Economists would rather be wrong in consensus than be right out of consensus
24:00 It is very difficult to change a paradigm
24:57 Rickards’ wake-up call
27:37 Complexity Theory and BaseBayes’ Theorem have not penetrated economic thinking
31:44 Rickards: Stocks are not right for everyone
35:25 The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Notesyear yield could go to 70 basis points
37:09 Larry Summers: We are going to have to have negative interest rates
39:33 How does the U.S. Presidential Election debate react?
46:29 Q&A Session