Hiding In Plain Sight: The Secret Behind Sainz's 2019 F1 Season

[@CYMotorsport]

WILL LANDO HOLD ON TO HIS 2020 LEAD? WILL RED BULL SWAP BACK FOR GASLY? Let me know below. Subscribe if I earned it bit.ly/CYF1Sub and share the video to help break echo chambers: kzbin.info/www/bejne/m2PEmWauqcSHrqM . Time stamps below: Setting the setting the stage with 2020: 1:39 The Model Explained: 6:46 Data Carlos didn’t want you to see: 8:33 Why the 2018 season is a good case study: 10:49 Proof Red Bull made the right call in 2019 swapping: 12:40 How Albon proved Red Bull right in 2019: 16:16 This is about setting Sainz up for success, nothing more, nothing less: 18:23

[@kurtperleberg6040]

Can you do a video on Michael Andretti?

[@CYMotorsport]

Shoot me a DM on IG or if you don’t have that my email is in the about - I’ll look out for you to see what you mean

[@kurtperleberg6040]

@@CYMotorsport what's you email?

[@iagoalcala4731]

Dearest CrankyYankeeF1, you are, in my humble opinion. doing the most cerebral, enjoyable and sensible job at analyzing and interpreting past, present and future F1. You are the Nerdwriter for F1 fans. Thank you very much for the huge efforts and the excelent results!

[@felipelemos9753]

Sainz beat Lando

[@ikerlafuente1979]

This did not age well mate

[@Lewiat]

This did not age well mate

[@Burnerisbrowsing]

This did not age well mate

[@BadAssEngineering]

Perez: Took 248% of available points in the 2019 season Also Perez: Fired from Racing Point :C

[@Bahamuttiamat]

Didn't Felipe nassar score 100% of sauber's points in 2016?

[@abbasahmedlp]

It's F1 boiiiiii.

[@zachlee7945]

the thing with the percentage of points captured is if you move back one spot all of a sudden you seem 3x better in that stat. Not saying Perez deserved to be canned btw just pointing out the flaws in that metric

[@abbasahmedlp]

@@zachlee7945 FACTS

[@doubleboy2388]

Racing Point made a huge mistske, getting rid of Perez for Vettel. All they're getting is a name. Vettel ismt fast anymore. Hes steady outperformed by his teammate, in practice, quali, and race pace. Hes going to go to RP and underperform, and its not going to end well. Hes egotistical and entitled, and that attitude mixed with his performance is going to be bad. He never takes any accountability, like that BS he pulled in Brazil last year. And he doeant take team orders well, like he did at Russia. Nonetheless its going to be interesting.

[@throwaway3258]

I'd like to report a major bruh moment Carlos P6 and Lando P9 despite carlos having the worser luck this season All this mental gymnastics you went through to make this and carlos proves you wrong

[@pi_za8214]

Lol

[@J4KK3B13R]

And with the 2021 season ended, carlos has taken p5 and is official P5. Congrats carlos, you deserve it

[@user-bm9cv9vn2k]

**CYF1 notification** Panik: It's not Alonso F1 Wars. Calm: It has Carlos Sainz Panik: Carlos Sainz will go to Ferrari, Monza 2020 might be his best performance for atleast 1-2years...

[@CYMotorsport]

the world is not ready for that video quite just yet. though I'm priming the pump haha less negative reactions even to the few sentences I drop here. were almost ready for battle in that. it'll be a war haha I already know it.

[@Alkem1st]

@@CYMotorsport We need F1 wars for our quarantine entertainment, no videos quite like them

[@stepladder3257]

CrankyYankeeF1 I agree on less negative reactions, F1 community has been to negative about Sainz moving to Ferrari

[@sailor7537]

And with good reason: Ferrari's 2020 has been a dog of a year for them. But recently they've managed to get on the rebound so maybe it might work out in Sainz's favor in the end.

[@geert574]

Carlos is gonna become Batman at ferrari "They killed my career Alfred!"

[@CYMotorsport]

hahaha this man. so true

[@aristotelisentertainment279]

Tom I need to get out of this shithole

[@shaunlevin5081]

@@aristotelisentertainment279 "ITS A SHITBOX!"

[@shadyyy7490]

Aged like shit lmao

[@petekambe3279]

too bad this channel appears to have died. Some alternative conclusions. 1. Norris is really good (maybe #4 behind lewis, Max, and charles?) thus not beating him at the midpoint of the season (and in the end beating him, Sainz did well). 2. He is very close to Charles and has helped Ferrari to get close to 3rd place with an engine not as good as the Merc or Honda 3. I expect redbull to take a step back next year, as they have spent a lot of time on the 2021 car and Honda leaving might mean Ferrari will be at least equal to Honda, still behind the Mercs, so 2nd in the constructors championship might be in the cards.

[@lenardzacharyd.cleofas1147]

Last time I was this early Carlos was still SENDing it

[@CYMotorsport]

hahah one of my favorite audios ever!

[@user-bm9cv9vn2k]

Hulk agrees

[@BMPHF1]

The intro gave me goosebumps 😆

[@CYMotorsport]

people said I wasn't funny hahaha working on it

[@callmecue]

Hell yeah Cranky! Style on them haters!!!

[@fogerrederer7601]

3 months later carlos is in 7th place and could finish 6th and lando is in 9th place

[@ananastudio]

As of right now, this video aged pretty well tbh

[@hersh9150]

Damn there were some HUGE landmines that you stepped on there dude(About Clarlos and Alonso) not saying i disagree with it tho...Never believed Alonso was outperforming his car all the time but at the same time didnt have a way to explain my reasons for thinking that. Thanks for explaining it that way!

[@CYMotorsport]

I'm ready to tackle them haha If I'm going to do something, I may as well push the ball. or try to. but I don't like avoiding topics just bc they are hard. I think you all deserve the attempt so you can see where you stand once and for all bc this video if it does anything will either persuade you or bolster your opinions the other way further

[@macydavenport]

@@CYMotorsport To add a variable into the mix, it would be good to limit the time element on this analysis when such claims were made, and that would be ALO's time at the Prancing Horse. How do you measure car performance? Would the benchmark be qualifying? If qualifying is the baseline, how many positions from qualifying would seem the most logical progression metric. Another metric could be # of wins or # of podiums from qualifying position. That would make for great analysis to test the hypothesis whether a driver gets more out of a car. Keep the stat stories comin'! It's like watching the F1 version of Moneyball. :)

[@parmvirgrewal6145]

I am so glad this video did not age well. Keep up the awesome work man ur videos are awesome.

[@Jmtech-we9cd]

Well this aged like fine wine 😂😂😂😂😂

[@gdogg3710]

Red Bull really messed up letting Carlos go...

[@evonneokafor]

Nah Max was much stronger than Carlos

[@JakePeroni]

@@evonneokafor Not the point

[@thechineserussian]

Also Sainz: becomes best of the rest in 2021, beating his team-mate Leclerc and smashing McLaren, bringing Ferrari back to P3 in the constructor's

[@josesammut9396]

The quality in this channel improved so much I barely recognize the channel anymore.

[@CYMotorsport]

it means the world to me when you give me constructive criticism. This channel isnt for me, my ego, anything. They can shove the checkmark up their ass. I'm a blank slate. a maniac with an obsessive curiosity for finding trends and solutions. I just want to give you all something to react to that actually makes you think. I want disagreement - whatever it takes for you to get closer to your convictions. i'm just lucky to be able to do it but given more time and more freedom by the powers that be, I want to keep proving I haven't even skimmed the surface man. there's so much I can do. more subs = more of a reason for YT/F1 to give me some rope. we're getting there but a long way to go! thanks for joining me on the journey you and anyone who pitches in to push me to make better stuff have a MASSIVE hand in this & I'm grateful

[@josesammut9396]

@@CYMotorsport It wasn't really critical just a compliment of how much and how fast the channel has grown. The only critical thing about the video might be that it would have been easier to get some points across with subtitles in point format or something like that. Had to back up a couple of times. But I love your work man keep it up. One of the best in the community.

[@wolf-xf6hf]

@@CYMotorsport you got a crazy mind man and it's making the f1 community a lot better because you call all the bullshit and when you call it enough and you're right almost all the time then people actually start listening and thinking instead of being dismissive. Lookin forward to your video on eyebrow man. I don't like alonso especially after crashgate and spygate. I think your content is phenomenal dude keep it up

[@calumrobb9533]

That “other one” is hulkenberg

[@CYMotorsport]

nailed it!

[@shnrrr]

After Carlos got a new chassis, he's been on fire!

[@CYMotorsport]

he's been doing incredible. it's great for the team and I hope he keeps it up!

[@shnrrr]

@@CYMotorsport me too!

[@Garvm]

And new engine. We cannot forget that he was having cooling issues, and it also affected the pace of his car because it needed more air in the radiators.

[@notgerardjoseph]

I think saying that NOR was retained by McLaren in place of SAI was slightly misleading especially to more casual fans. The decision to part ways was that of SAI alone, not that of McLaren. He got an offer from Ferrari who wanted to replace VET. Now if the story was that RIC wanted to join McLaren so they chose to drop SAI, then you could make that argument but most reports don't suggest this. If not for SAI leaving he would likely have been retained, IMHO. I know I'm nitpicking at a small bit of info that could have just been a slip but thought I should highlight it.

[@pedrozapata7008]

This guy just has a rage boner for Sainz for whatever reason. Probably cause he outperformed his fav. puppy Lando. Who is definitely an amazing driver, maybe (probably) even better than Carlos, but man, one cant deny Carlos's consistency and most of all engineering input with the teams. a real old-school driver that still gets massively involved in helping develop a car. at least thats the feeling i get. There must be a reason why every team he went to improved while he was there and was able to use his input to keep improving after he left.

[@fcopr]

As of today This video didn't age well , we will see how he can do against Leclerc . But right now sainz proved once more how consistent and strong he is comoared to norris ....he keeps improving ,slowly but steady.

[@CYMotorsport]

video aged beautifully haha

[@achillespeleus2326]

Seems like you have something against Carlos to me.

[@masudsiswakusumaatmaja8025]

@@achillespeleus2326 how

[@MuhammadNiz007]

@@CYMotorsport lol Carlos even has beaten Charles this video didn't age well

[@comradetirer]

@@MuhammadNiz007 lol

[@Karan_Mathew]

That Alonso video gonna get way more backlash than this one lmaoo. Coming from an Alonso fan ahah

[@CYMotorsport]

the reason this hasn't is because there's nothing to argue it's already happening haha. alonso video will but i think nando fans might actually listen. the point wont be that he slow, just that the idea he gets more out of the car is illogical. the part ppl will hate is when I lay out how his 2010 - 2013 Ferrari wasn't bad. in fact it was quite good. he had ZERO retirements excluding when he was actually classified from mechanical failures. the fact that alonso supporters don't know that is how I know I already have the upper hand. the rest will just be my positioning of the ground work. I'm fighting the legacy that he never got beat on merit. at a certain point, I can break that apart. it just can I do it in a way that fans like you will see I'm being delicate. bc one hint of me relishing a point and I'll lose everyone. it'll be my toughest task to date no question haha i'm stoked to show it though when it's done

[@Karan_Mathew]

@@CYMotorsport Cant wait for it! Love the amazing stuff you put out!

[@josedupuydelome9486]

@@CYMotorsport Alonso has retired in Belgium 2010 due to an accident, in Canada 2011 due to a collision, Japan 2012 (puncture) and Malaysia 2013 (accident).Or at least thats what I've read. I think you are being too tough on Carlos here, I think its a mistake to assume he should have been p6 in al races, this is because over performing the p6 is nearly impossible with the cars ahead (Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes) although underperforming the p6 is quite easy as the Maclaren wasn't much better than the Renault or even the toro Rosso. Also in terms of luck don't think lando was more or less unlucky than Sainz last year after all excluding the retirements because of collisions its a 4/5 ration meanwhile this year Sainz has had much worst luck than Lando, Lando is great in qualy but for now I would say sainz is still a better race driver. Maybe I am wrong or maybe you already said this in your video as I am Mexican and sometimes its hard to understand some parts of the video, I hope I have expressed myself correctly!

[@alex-qd5en]

@@CYMotorsport My brain says the cars were quite good my heart says Nando outperformed these shit buckets and is the goat lol

[@zephyrod7307]

CrankyYankeeF1 the main thing I’m looking forward to in that video is gonna be the distinction between “car wasn’t good” and “car should not have won”. To take a modern analogy: if Max Verstappen was gonna win the WDC this year, noone could say he was driving a shit car. But he wasn’t driving the best car on the grid either. Still, he would have outperformed his p3 car by driving it to p1. I think the general argument for alonso is similar

[@mikocruz3009]

If I understood how you compute % points taken correctly, that means if Sainz didn’t overtake Hulk in Abu Dhabi for P10 (therefore finishing P7 for the season) he would have a % points taken of 75%? (95 out of 6*21) I just think the metric used here puts drivers who overperform at a disadvantage. Essentially, Sainz got a lower % because he finished P6 and not P7.

[@pemBlueerr]

Good point

[@CYMotorsport]

You violate the main point I make 4 x in this video (I literally counted them haha). In the article I posted I actually say facetiously “if anyone still holds on to the objective it’s penalizing him somehow then see above” where I lay out again in detail how that’s illogical. If you are of the opinion it’s penalizing him, you’re genuinely going out of your way to misrepresent the point of the analysis. I don’t think I could bring myself to say how not to use this stat anymore times than I did to be honest. In spite of that if you feel that way there’s nothing i can do. You want to see it a certain way and that’s fair you have your right to do so but you’re not seeking clarity we both know that

[@mikocruz3009]

Don’t get me wrong, you have a lot of valid points in the video. I just think this one specific metric might not represent the situation 100% of the time. I just think that using this stat to support your argument isn’t that logical, given that had he placed P7 in 2019, he’d have a decent % points taken.

[@mikocruz3009]

And just to be very clear I did not say anywhere in my comment that your objective in the video is to discredit Sainz. I’m merely stating the fact that had he placed lower, then the logic you used in that part of your video does not hold up at all.

[@pemBlueerr]

Hi yankee, can you link the article? I can't find it :( % of points earned is an interesting metric, a lot of brave assumptions though

[@Cristiano95ify]

I would say, that Sainz destroy all the realistic expectation and even the unrealistic one. Amazing.

[@eurion6527]

This video didn't aged well jesus

[@CYMotorsport]

It sure did lol

[@dholrice5699]

Yeah exactly what I was thinking 😂😂.....the complete opposite has happened 😂

[@alexandroskoskinas]

This "metric" is a joke, it would be wise to not use it for comparisons... Work the numbers with gasly not getting the brazil podium, assume if you want a dnf or his "rightfull" p8 finish. That would be a stellar season according to this "metric". An obvious hint for the flaw in this "metric" is that p11 (norris) has an infinate ratio. The same goes for all the "pointless" grid positions. As a note, the fact that someone achive a X position does not mean that he was entitled to do it so.

[@nightowlgamer1640]

I have watched "The Curious case of Benjamin Button" a couple of weeks ago and the thumbnail caught me Offguard.

[@doghat1619]

This has quickly become my favourite F1 channel on youtube, probablly my favourite F1 content in general, aside from the actual races. I love how you come at things from facts and evidence and how your videos discuss the past and trends rather than just being yet another channel that follows the F1 news cycle saying the same thing as everyone else. I'm really excited for the alonso video you mentioned because for years I've seen people in youtube comments calling him one of the greatest drivers of all time and I personally just don't understand the hype.

[@fcopr]

He is showing greatness , he had such bad luck in the first half o the seasson....and most of it came from extremly poor pitstops and strategy decission

[@CYMotorsport]

you'd have to also recognize Lando's luck if you're playing that game. and what happens is usually it's never the same standard for both drivers

[@fcopr]

@@CYMotorsport I still like your videos you are a very talented video maker, I just disagree :)

[@CYMotorsport]

@@fcopr absolutely! I meant it, you should disagree haha. it would be weird to only have people agree. I'm probably not doing my job if everyone always agreed with me haha

[@ismaelwed2027]

Very detailed and interesting analysis as usual... thank you I'd like to see a Lewis/Max/Charles comparison. Thanks a bunch

[@binura]

I've been a huge Carlos fan since the STR days. I think he's an awesome talent but I completely agree with what your're saying. I was kinda happy but worried for him when he got signed by ferrari and I really hope it doesn't end his career. Also awesome job on that research tho. This here is a man of sheer passion and love of F1... and stats. Kudos CrankyYankee

[@CYMotorsport]

Glad to see a carlos fan luke warm to this! Yeah I’m not super stoked saying something critical at all it’s a legit worry I have for him. If he goes with the right expectations it’ll be great for his confidence

[@jorgegarciapascual5709]

I feel that I've just watched a bunch of numbers that don't say anything at all. If you add up Gasly's first half of the season points and Albon's second one, the second Red Bull would be the clear P6 car, making P7 the best position available for the midfield, being McLaren the best of the rest in some races, Renault in others. Finishing P6 was an outlier that year because of the Red Bull midseason drivers change. What I'm trying to say is that percentage of available points shouldn't have to be linked to the particular final standing of each individual driver. Wasn't P7 up for grabs for Lando as well? Shouldn't his PoAP be calculated around that? Instead, Landos percentage is an outstanding infinity per cent, because finishing P11 every race would give you 0 points, but the lad managed to get 49 points.

[@krthecarguy5150]

So, just this little experiment I tried to see if I get the %points thing, feel free to ignore it unless I'm doing it wrong Felipe Massa in 2008 finished 2nd in points with 98 points From his 2nd position he could've gotten 8 points per race over 18 races 8*18=144 98/144*100 (so I don't have to calculate with negative numbers)= roughly 68% Felipe Massa in 2008 scored 68% of his available points Am I doing it right?

[@CYMotorsport]

BINGO. Massa 08 is one of my all time favorite case studies. if you are REALLY curious, look at the history of winner % of points available. I've done the entire analysis in my top 4 era's video if you look on my channel. there should be a public spread sheet you can access. Massa scored out of the points excluding retirements (& classified retirements) twice that's actually significant given Hamilton matched him there. Ham and Massa scored the same number of podiums at 10 with massa taking one more win. For me, it comes down to the two retirements with his Hungary GP classified. looking at how the car started, australia and malaysia ruined his season before it began. he went P1, P2, P1, P3 after that. Kimi won in Malaysia which Massa should have taken and in australia Ham was on pole. it would have been a podium though for sure. Great Britain really hurt Massa. Might have been the turning point. Hamilton after that does what he rarely gets credit for but his best quality, he puts the heat on. If massa won, Hamilton mitigated the loss to 4 points max until Brazil. the Bourdais incident in Japan wasn't a good look for Massa either. but if he turned around and could redo italy through Japan, those were the REALLY crucial moment in points capture. as a champion though, they both left a ton on the table. imagine hamilton today being out of the points multiple times with so many low scoring races. this is why also 2016 is so underrated and why I dont the doubting of nico

[@abbasahmedlp]

@@CYMotorsport this is why few reliability issues or mistakes differs from legendary drivers.......no wonder why top teams terminate their drivers over little mishaps (unless you buy the seat)..... it's just how f1 works 😂

[@henriquesoares2343]

@@CYMotorsport Lat's be honest here, if it wasnt for Ferrari doing critical mistakes in the second half of that season that would have been his title 100%. Too bad he wasn't the same after Hungary in 2009 and couldnt get his title

[@Bahamuttiamat]

Nick, What is the purpose of this video? What exactly are you trying to say? Seems like a convoluted attempt to curb fans expectation of Carlos versus Charles in ferrari based on his 2019 performance. I don't quite get it. Using % of potential points scored seems like a very crude method of determining how well each driver drove. Are we to believe bottas at 86% drove better than lewis? Or Vettel at 114% was better than charles. To be honest, I don't fully understand the context of these data sets. Correct me if i'm wrong, but in the case of lewis. He obviously had the best car. So it's 25*20=500 possible points. He scored 413 points minus the 6 fastest laps in 407. (407/500)*100=81.4%. What am I missing? And how exactly is this information pertinent to carlos' role as ferrari's number two driver? I highly doubt there are many, if any, expecting him to beat charles. His role is well defined as a supportive number two. A Spanish wingman, for lack of a better word.

[@CYMotorsport]

sure thing mate - this was mostly bc i mentioned this in november haha so it was well overdue. even if it had to stop there, then it would be enough. if i say I'll do something it eats away at me when I don't. second, and a close second, it's establish the credibility of models used during season but also pre season. third, as i build the prediction league, it helps to see someone running it who has predictive capabilities. that's one of the main problems with those who play in leagues. they don't trust the supplier. but putting a face to a prediction gives it bite. 4th, I'm really fucking petty. the platform better pray kimi doesn't lose to gio and god forbid ocon beat danny. you wont be able to wipe the shit eating grin off my face. 5th. to ultimately empower anyone watching so they can start to dig. I want to attract an older audience like yourself that isn't 12. nothing wrong with that but as i breach 100k subs, I want to continue to build the base identity as the serious F1 channel on youtube. part of that is stuff like this. 6th. well, bc I just wanted to haha. it's what I think about and analyze all day. might as well share it. Now all that said, your real question was likely hinting at the impact of those caught in the cross fire. Hamilton especially I've done a TON of work around this for the top 4 eras video. you can never pull one % of points and draw a conclusion from this alone. for reference, here is that stat sheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/138yT6wadRmz_V0QyZA-5R46662lRDtiFHN5liEqYVhU/edit?usp=sharing Hamilton just to answer that, would have had one of the best champion %'s in history. its up there with 02 and 04 schumi. If you wanted to draw a conclusion from Hamilton's % to carlos, there is none here aside from Germany. given hamilton's unprecedented placement in P1-3, carlos is irrelevant. This stat was VERY helpful comparing things like the 2017 season. but not so much with carlos. and for what it's worth, I would challenge that many don't expect him to beat charles. bc then I'd ask - how close is close enough? 100 points? 50? he claims he's not a number 2 - if he underdelivers, he'll be eaten alive.

[@MrLaptopus]

@@CYMotorsport I will say this now - Carlos wont be far behind Charles

[@AvinashWaghmare]

Always loved your research. But today I'll appreciate the graphics. Good job mate!

[@raiyan6386]

Just a few months ago we talked a bit on reddit, and you talked about improving the quality of your vids. Now your vids look like theyre from the Formula 1 channel itself! Keep shining 💪

[@CYMotorsport]

I really do take growth and listening very seriously haha long time watchers i know for sure see that. it's the ones I have to keep making sure understand with time, I can invest more in to the stuff i'll turn around and give right back. atleast you have our private chat as a bit of proof of my goal haha

[@raiyan6386]

CrankyYankeeF1 The progress is in "plain site" 😉

[@LSAD1101]

No wonder this took so many hours to upload, the quality is on point!

[@CYMotorsport]

I was actually surprised it was so lengthy. on playback though i'm realizing the 4K quality throughout is hammering the player haha I'm sure they didn't love to see that.

[@LSAD1101]

CrankyYankeeF1 I thoroughly enjoyed the work you put into this one! Carlos and McLaren quickly became my favorites early on. Watching Carlos in Drive to Survive and how netflix portrayed his work ethic and improvement as a racer over the series definitely played a role in that, but I’m only human.

[@revolutionformelonline-rfo9835]

Nice intro! I have an video idea (maybe for the end of the season) Pierre Gasly, Rise, fall and redemption or something

[@CYMotorsport]

we gotta see where he ends up! but I'm all for it. it's a good case study into the mental aspect of performing. HHF was the other one I cite to explain Gasly

[@CYMotorsport]

we gotta see where he ends up! but I'm all for it. it's a good case study into the mental aspect of performing. HHF was the other one I cite to explain Gasly

[@gabednconfused]

These are easily the best Formula 1 videos on KZbin

[@CYMotorsport]

Many, many more on the way mate :)

[@JohnSmithShields]

Please keep up the great work CY!!!! Your analysis stands up to scrutiny, and is entertaining to boot. A great mix.

[@minigungaming5915]

I'm gonna buy some popcorn for when the Alonso analysis video comes

[@Guidonator181]

I don't get the statistical analysis here. Firstly, the "Points Taken Analysis" only serves to show by how closely the driver won that spot. If Carlos had been P7 (which he could have been and still been "best of the rest", since the two behind him were both Red Bull drivers), his tally would've gone up heaps (76%) and been much more comparable with everyone else. Even more so from P8 (114%!) , and in that position I still think he would've been considered "best of the rest". It's only so low because he did a super job to scrape the P6 position away from Gasly and Albon, who had much more of a right to it. Secondly, if the top 5 are a foregone conclusion, then OF COURSE Sainz is going to be the one with a low Points Taken score, since he was really never going to finish P6 every race (keeping in mind the second RB car as well!). Past P5 it was very competitive, and if you take out the two RBs, Sainz absolutely dominated over everyone else (96 vs. 54 from Ricciardo). I think the Points Taken Analysis hugely underestimates Sainz's performance because of the anomaly of the RB switch, where in reality both Gasly and Albon deserved to place higher in the WDC than Carlos by virtue of spending half a season each in a vastly superior car. At the very least, that means that for Sainz to be "best of the rest" in each race, he should have averaged P7 on the basis of the car's capability, not P6. That he instead finished P6 in the championship does definitely speak to the mediocre/terrible performances of Gasly and Albon, but certainly doesn't take away from the fact that he absolutely DESTROYED everyone else, from Ricciardo downwards. He had absolutely no right to be where he was in the WDC, but hey, he was there anyway. The dude deserves a Ferrari.

[@CYMotorsport]

It doesn’t. This isn’t retroactive. I did this a year ago. You feel that way bc you are defending Carlos. Nothing wrong with that. But I wasn’t attacking him. It’s a common fallacy in data . The classic “hammer looking for a nail”. You’ve ignored all my caveats and used the data exactly how I said NOT to. It’s simply shown here to tel you why I was right. And clearly, I was. Last year was a false positive. It doesn’t underestimate him at all. I literally go race by race.

[@Guidonator181]

@@CYMotorsport Hi mate! I didn't think anyone would read my comment, let alone respond, LET ALONE for that response to come from the video creator! Thanks for reading my comment and replying, I really appreciate you and your videos! Hoping we can have a good, in-depth chat about the analysis, because I do love this stuff. I think maybe I'm somewhat confused about the data analysis. I do appreciate the Points Taken Analysis, but in attempting to apply it, I've somehow become more defensive of Carlos, not less. I do love Sainz, but I honestly hadn't fan-boyed over his P6 as much as many seemed to. I promise I'm not just ruthlessly defending him, and I'll try to outline my points more clearly. I do have a background in data analysis, though I recognise I've got a lot of learning left to do. I think, firstly, the my take on the PT Analysis (knowing full well I could be applying it completely incorrectly!) has shown it has some benefit when looking at winners and the top of the field, but has really limited application when looking at the midfield. Again, with the top 5 being a foregone conclusion in 2019, pretty much the rest of the field from Sainz down to at least Hulkenburg in P14 technically has the capacity to win that P6 spot (taking Gasly and Albon out of the picture, as I'll talk about in a sec). But by the PTA, P11 is expected to win exactly 0 points, which is completely unrealistic. If we expect to see something close to a linear trend downwards to last place (it won't follow that exactly, but you get what I mean), then those past P11 are kind of "stealing" points away from those P10 and above, and each can claim a PT score of "infinity %", since they weren't expected to claim any points at all. I think the analysis is biased to shine a negative light on the "best of the rest", since they're as wrapped up in the midfield as anyone else, and can finish anything from P6 to dead last, but they do the best anyway, even though they haven't finished P6 in every race. I think that's why Perez managed to score such a high result as well, because the PTA shows he was only expected to win 21 points, which would be an abysmal score for someone in P10 in the WDC. This also goes especially for seasons where the top 3 or so teams are incredibly dominant over the others, and you could argue that this trend had been only becoming stronger up to 2019. If F1 gave points to every position down to last place, I 100% think that the PTA would be viable and a great way to analyse how strongly each position was achieved. Secondly, as you said in your assumptions part, the analysis doesn't take the quality and capacity of the car into account, and that's where my point about 2019 being an exceptional year comes into it with respect to Gasly and Albon. I think seeing that mid-year switch put Sainz in a hopeless position for the PTA, because he's stacked up as though P6 was always a possibility, whereas having two drivers in the Red Bull seats the whole year (even though they were switched) realistically should have meant his spot was P7. He only really achieved P6 because they switched the drivers (and had each driver spend half the season in a Toro Rosso), and I'm beyond confident that had RB kept Gasly in the seat, he would've finished P6 purely because he was driving a Red Bull. In other words, the PTA would have been fairer if the WDC had included the combined score of Gasly and Albon in the RB as one driver, and the combined score of them both in the TR as the other, which would have seen the RB seat take P6, and the TR seat take P12. In that case, Carlos would have been P7, and the PTA score would have been fairer (albeit still relatively weak, I'll admit). Would love to hear your thoughts!

[@Guidonator181]

Just to add an example to my first point - as of the Portuguese GP, the "best of the rest" for 2020 is currently Ricciardo in 4th. While he's nabbed a podium, it's pretty consistently been the case that the HAM-BOT-VER podium is a foregone conclusion, meaning that the P4 spot is the one up for grabs for "best of the rest". However, Danny Boi has only achieved 80 points of his predicted 144 achievable, which is a PTA score of only 56%. I recognise the limitation of the smaller sample size, but I maintain that the point stands. To ask Ricciardo to effectively finish P4 in every single race is impossible - certainly much more so than to ask our P5 finisher to finish P5 in every race, because they still have the capacity to finish 4th. Even harder than asking P6 to finish 6th, since they still have 4th AND 5th on the table... and so on and so forth until the back of the grid. Hopefully this explains it a little better. I'm a bit hopeless at putting this into words...

[@sitordan]

Loved it. You're videos are getting better and better. You're doing a great job, man. Peace!

[@CYMotorsport]

Thanks tj!

[@Raven1984ful]

This video didn’t age so well 😅

[@MrRawnerves]

I had to watch your presentation twice to really grasp the truthfulness of your numbers and your meticulous attention to detail. Congratulations 👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽

[@CYMotorsport]

I could have improved the connectedness of certain segments but I’m glad you could work through my madness haha

[@MrRawnerves]

You approached it from a different angle, mathematical in its analysis. I am guessing it took you some hours to run thru all the permutations, analyzed the numbers and presenting them in a non biased way for an audience who is so passionate about their drivers to separate the driver from their potential. Again, magnificent presentation, thanks for your hard work.

[@CYMotorsport]

Many people who disagree still sometimes think it’s bc I have a bias but I solely blame that on so many making content approaching this as a fan first which inherently does present a bias. I have always done it reverse. I’d rather be mechanical and let you decide rather than me tell you. Use me as just the guy who has a lot of time to crunch numbers so you don’t have to haha the conclusions are yours! Cheers mate glad you enjoy it and look forward to making you more

[@MrRawnerves]

That’s the way it should be. Removed the emotions and focus on the reporting the numbers and let people come to their conclusion. I wish our news media would do the same 🤣 instead of trying to spin it their way. Give me the facts and step back. Great work. 👌🏾

[@JonManProductions]

Okay you have my Audio Engineer senses tingled, what Compressor and EQ are you using for your commentary audio?

[@CYMotorsport]

hahah audiophiles ALWAYS WANTED to opine. I'm obsessed with making that part of my game better. audio engineers actually on this channel are responsible for some of my biggest leaps forward tbh. I have a brick wall at -6dbs. But I'm using an RE27 a Focusrite as well as a cloudlifter. so ample gain is there if I play around. it's the RE27 that makes this so hard for me. I have a software from FxFactory - the limiter - that regulates adaptively but I only set it to 50%. At 100%, the DBs at the tail end of sentences were seeking WAY too much. They'd get so loud as my natural speech pattern tails off at the end. working on it. this is actually my first time using it so I'm a bit nervous if it's going to go well. I monitor and playback everything on studio level stuff so on youtube and on phones, i never actually know how it's coming out which I fucking hate. thoughts?

[@cardyknowz784]

@@CYMotorsport quick question, have you tried a DeEsser to address some of the sibilance in the speech. Levels are good overall, maybe a sparkle of presence, but nothing major. Big fan of the channel also, good content I can see the work put into it!

[@JonManProductions]

@@CYMotorsport Your audio in this video sounds great, though I'd dare say the cloudlifter might be abit excessive for your choice of microphone, the focusrite should be able to drive it well enough (I personally need something like that for my SM-57 as that's my choice for commentary due to its better handling of gamer me panick screaming), though the levels are abit low compared to let's say the previous F1 Drivers in Indy video. I would definitely look into getting into the art of working with EQ, compression and de-essing, I can definitely see potential in your audio getting far better with those tweaks, they aren't particularly difficult to learn, it just takes some experimentation to get it right. Best of luck with your future videos, I look forward to seeing what comes next.

[@EmyrDerfel]

@@CYMotorsport Re: tailing off, have you tried recording standing up rather than sitting down? Edit: Ignore that, just watched the Spa video, there you are standing up...

[@dazuk1969]

That is what i call a comprehensive breakdown of the stats. I wish Calos well at Ferrari, but he is definitely walking into the lion's den there. The pressure and expectation will be massive in a very poor car. Mostly though, i think Perez needs a bit o love here. Being dropped like that stinks. Hopefully Mexico will forgive F1....Great stuff dude.

[@CYMotorsport]

yeah I'm actually on the fence as to whether to do this video now that he's officially out. i think it'll play really well

[@jonathangriffiths2499]

Excellent stuff as always Cranky . Must have been a lot of work but worth it . Your channel is the best of the independent F 1 analysis .

[@CYMotorsport]

haven't slept much but this was a fun one nearly the whole time. writing killed me here though. eager to move on haha

[@jonathangriffiths2499]

CrankyYankeeF1 👍 🏁

[@milanfixer]

You really are meticulous in crunching and presenting the data. Very good video 👍

[@CYMotorsport]

I just want to give you something as objective as possible so you can form your Conclusion. Thank you for the feedback, Milan

[@DerBeppone]

I think what many people seem to underestimate is, that F1 is basically full of solid and quick drivers, who also can capitalise on certain situations. But that is why I love the sport. Even though the technology gap exist, even today situations can arise, that are mixing up things every once in a while. In the end almost every one has his time to shine and also goes through rough patches at others. I'm pretty sure Carlos will be able to rack up decent performances at Ferrari, if the car allows to. But the way Charles is putting his Ferrari towards top 5 under this conditions is nothing short of impressive. I think Carlos knows, that it will be a tough situation for him.

[@CYMotorsport]

100% agreed!

[@shawnconnelly2659]

i cant explain how much I love your videos. You are methodical in your approach and very detailed. I love a good long F1 discussion. Most F1 YTs I follow produce good content but in short, basic bursts. Your videos are well thought out and I like that you also express your opinion. Well done Sir. Grazie!

[@JoHnSapla7LordSapla9]

Absolutely love your videos. Keep them up and I'm sure a lot more people will appreciate your channel.

[@CYMotorsport]

just glad you do now! thanks for watching!

[@kwdroneflights2374]

These videos are the sort of information based science the world needs right now. Please keep it up.

[@tonirodriguez6683]

Please do an Alonso video in terms of him getting his car to places where it shouldn't have been. Btw really interesting video, I'm a Spanish fan so that last comment really stung haha. Keep up the good work :)

[@tomgriffiths2272]

Damn, this take didn't age well

[@oxydris4219]

He's just beat Leclerc for p5 but I could see the logic in your thinking and the evidence to support it. I think we all got blindsided at just how adaptable Carlos is as a driver compared to his competitors that have struggled in new machinery.

[@darkmatter6714]

7:27 Hell of a photo! Oh...and I agree 100% on this 👍🏻

[@deathstroke_44]

Mate, I absolutely loved this video. I really do hope that you make more videos like this, maybe even on topics that may be considered as "controversial". The statistical analysis is beautiful!

[@CYMotorsport]

I plan on moving toward more of these general topics and less driver focused henceforth . It should be good fun!

[@charlessc5943]

i think a better metric to evaluate driver would be: you assume the performance of the cars -> merc 1, fer 2, rb 3, mcl 4... you then say well mclaren should have P7-P8 in 2019 sainz had an average position of 10,04 in the 21 races BUT with 4 dnfs included!! if you exclude dnfs he performs avg 7,82 position on 17 races (not totally accurate because you should only exclude dnfs for technical reasons, not if driver crashes) comparison with dnfs included (counted as place 20): hamilton avg place 2,38 with 0 dnfs (1st car -> place 1-2) verstappen avg 5,09 with 2 dnfs (rb 3th best car -> place 5-6) perez avg 10,85 with 2 dnfs !! RP was 7th car so technically should only be giving avg 13-14 place showing that he really outperforms the car he is in

[@Gabriel-ns3ov]

How you’re not on 500k subs is beyond me

[@CYMotorsport]

soon! near 100k YT will slow things down a bit. i saw that in Josh Revell's channels which is great btw. after that, it should be a lot more recommendations which is the driver to any channel. I'm just eager to have so many topics lined up!

[@Gabriel-ns3ov]

I can’t wait for the Alonso war video

[@chrislehto5357]

New to F1 this season, and your channel has been a great touchstone on where F1 has been and where it is going. Keep up the good work man you got a subscriber for life. Also hope you might provide us with your take on that bonkers Monza! Cheers.

[@skadooshkid5874]

You always have some insane analysis, which helps a lot in understanding things better. I am still curious about one thing tho, what makes you think Lec has improved a lot on his race pace? He has had relatively cleaner races compared to most others courtesy to good qualifying and the absence of another Redbull to give competition. Also, he has been very lucky with the points scored, which I don't think there is any denying. Every time he has started in the midfield he doesn't score a lot of points (unless of course Ferrari pawns off Seb or he somehow manages to work a difficult strategy -> 1 stop). There is no way to compare him to Seb this season considering they seem to be having very different seasons. If they have to drive in midfield, Sainz might just give Lec a run for his money. If there a way to make sense of that?

[@montanaswenson9765]

Another world class production! I am an American who started watching F1 only after Drive to Survive was launched. My understanding of the sport is extremely limited. My question; Do your stats and analysis miss the mark in that a driver is so much more than his results and stats. His ability to be a team player/company man and ability to communicate effectively the cars performance (or lack there of) seems to be tremendously important. Thank you and keep up the awesome work!

[@karanchoubey]

Bro you should have like 10 million subscribers. Your contents speaks quality.

[@seanalexander1984]

I like the fact that you are trying to be subjective and look at statistics and numbers to back up what you have to say. Whereas with a lot of other F1 channels others are just running off at the mouth and giving opinions about the way they feel about the driver. Your approach Nick is very refreshing and that's why I'm a fan of your channel!!

[@CYMotorsport]

Yeah it’s mostly bc I don’t feel any way emotionally about a driver haha so this is how I think through performance. Really just to try to arm anyone watching with quick gut chucks to call someone else’s bull shit mid convo bc we’ve all been there

[@dfletcherboyy12]

CrankyYankeeF1 the kind of guy to hand you a bottle of water before a good night goes bad we needed this one mate good video Ferrari doesn't need another martyr.

[@canibanoglu9643]

Sorry you had to deal with all of those comments. For what it's worth, I immensely enjoy your videos and welcome your well-thought out opinions even if I don't agree

[@CYMotorsport]

That’s the healthy mindset! I never ever wanna convince anyone of anything. I want to give you something to react to. I assume the audience is ready to do their own thinking. I ask a lot from you guys on purpose. I’d rather people be angry than treat you like children. There’s plenty watching this that know more than I do. I learn more than I can explain just in comments alone

[@purpledahlia1969]

I've always watched your interesting videos, but when I saw this for the first time I thought "Mate, you are going to be so wrong". But I freely admit I base my conclusions on drivers more by instinct from 71 years of watching F1 right from the very first world championship in 1950 as a youngster. The same instinct brought me a lot of flak when I predicted the Lando would beat Daniel and Carlos would hold his own against Charles this year, when most fans were saying the opposite. Harder to predict next year with the new car designs but if (a big if) there is not a huge disparity between the manufacturers I think the drivers who are the most adaptable will come out of it best, and Carlos has proved he is incredibly adaptable and able to change his driving techniques to suit the car. I think he will be very close again to Charles and, luck depending, could even beat him again.

[@Goodnewsglobal]

Can you take a close look at Kevin Magnessun at some stage? I've been looking at him & find him to be the most underrated driver on the grid.. 👍

[@CYMotorsport]

i've actually wanted to look at both grosjean and kmag for a while now. I'll def throw it on the list

[@Goodnewsglobal]

@@CYMotorsport Super!! Grosjean's good in Quali but prove me wrong with his race stats! 😉 🇮🇪

[@Goodnewsglobal]

They are very different drivers which makes it extremely interesting. It's extremely hard to pick between them & I personally love both. Great to see them doing so well this year in Bruce McLaren's 50th anniversary. Pasted away at just 32. Great video again.. 👍

[@CYMotorsport]

they really are both great and different. what makes mclaren so dynamic

[@tcurtis3415]

My first season getting and loving F1 and your channel is just intensifying the fire. I love the content!

[@CYMotorsport]

Makes Me Happy to hear :)

[@elvincitore1512]

Man , this did not age well , but you're partially right and Carlos proved that he knows what to do in chaotic races .

[@tuna8291]

Always good analysis and new perspectives

[@therrydicule]

Carlos Sainz Jr is a very good f1 driver... Much better than a lot of people give him credit. But, Lando Norris is very under-rated. You have someone there who should win a driver title in his career and I knew it for a few years. I saw Lando race at Macau...

[@shelleyc853]

Ooh I can't wait until the Alonso video! I think the current ferrari situation(assuming it doesn't improve in 2021) will be something of a blessing for Sainz, since everyone's expectations have dropped of them and won't expect the world from him so much. 2022 will be interesting though...

[@1xRacer]

Amazing as always, just wondering was this video volume lower than usual? Had my phone on crank and still had a little trouble

[@CYMotorsport]

Really helpful! I used a totally different mixer and still need to work at it. It was lower just as a whole but I play these things back all in a studio. Which is really fucking stupid considering no one listens in a studio haha good input. I’m going to up there DBs next video this one leveraged zero music which I’m lucky bc that would have been a huge problem .

[@1xRacer]

@@CYMotorsport love that you're always listening, so proud of what you have accomplished so far. many more milestones to come!

[@dennisschmitter7310]

Another great analysis! Love your channel. You give such a thorough explanation of your opinions. Well done sir!!

[@ernestocastro8357]

damn this video really got me thinking about how to approach my expectations as well as measuring success! thanks for the great thought provoking video homie!

[@CYMotorsport]

That’s all I can ask for!

[@Yaya-sz1ef]

once again, an awesome video!! super concise and really easy to understand. super interesting to look at carlos' results in a different light!

[@wasapbigmatt]

You're great dude love your channel

[@tubadude07]

Amazing how a year could change in F1. Still a great video. Sainz has been sneaky good in 2021.

[@tgrassf1771]

grat vid man great job on all the graphics too!

[@CYMotorsport]

Glad You liked it friend!

[@emiliomorales5670]

What data visualization tools do you use for your videos? Nonetheless, this video was well made and the data analytics were solid. Thumbs Up!

[@CYMotorsport]

Loads haha it depends on the chart. If it’s animated as a full on graph, it’s likely a plug in. For reliable ones I tend to favor motionVFX .com . The rest are hand built in layers. That way I can manipulate the space and pace they move in. It’s a pain but bc I’m not as advanced as I want to be with it, I have to do it this way

[@emiliomorales5670]

CrankyYankeeF1 Okay, that makes sense why I’ve never seen such things. In my area of study they have stressed using Tableau for data visualization. It’s helps keeps the presentations interactive and intriguing. I haven’t been able to do as much as you have!

[@MrAllenm94]

I would love to hear your take on the Hamilton v Button 3 years Although there are no stats available on what was happening behind the scenes for overall context but that won't come out until Lewis or Anthony write a book. Nonetheless I would love to hear your breakdown.

[@seanalexander1984]

Great video!! Very sophisticated way of looking at Carlos Sainz's situation. But it is kind of a roundabout way of saying that Carlos Sainz is kind of screwed at Ferrari next year!!

[@CYMotorsport]

Round about indeed haha that’s what I do best

[@shimeih2287]

Been waiting all week for this and my oh my the wait was worth it. Good job mate. And that Randy Orton pic came out of nowhere 😂😂

[@CYMotorsport]

hahah like, 1% will get the reference and it'll be worth it everytime. If I had more of an american audience I would make the outta nowhere compilation i've always wanted to make of driver shunts haha it would be fucking hilarious in due time!

[@isaacjohn8662]

Man I love your stuff bro. Keep bringing these!

[@CYMotorsport]

A few GIANT ones coming back to back to back baby get ready gonna be a wild November. And this off season you’ll mote content than in season haha

[@fersis1234]

Hot damn dude, your work is on point!!! Awesome work as aways

[@CYMotorsport]

Thanks Fernando! glad you like it. More I could have done but I can't look at this one any longer haha

[@AceTheSkylord]

Tfw Carlos beat Leclerc and became Best Of The Rest

[@lewis8552]

You should do a video on Hulk vs Perez. Always been a great pairing in the midfield and could be an interesting video to make.

[@CYMotorsport]

that actually would be a good video. I don't have any real reason to do it now unless I do a checo tribute which I'm considering!

[@king_zapp]

I just love your content, man.

[@CYMotorsport]

Much more coming for ya friend

[@Eggerd]

First I just want to say that you analysis was well thought out and I really enjoyed it. % of points is an interesting metric, but as you stated many times it can be quite problematic. I think a better way to use % of points to potentially compare driver performance would be to normalize them to the max % of points possible at each position. For instance, the max % of points for the 1st place driver is 100%. However, under an ideal set of circumstances, the max % of points for the 10th place driver is 986%. (I have the max % of points for each position calculated if you're interested) Using the max % possible at each position you can normalize the % of points and represent them instead as % of max possible % of points. So for example, Perez's 248% is 25% of the maximum possible 986% at that position. SO his normalized % of points is 25%. Doing that for all positions, here is what you get: Ham - 79% Bot - 73% Ver - 68% Lec - 72% Vet - 72% Sai - 31% Gas - 34% Alb - 37% Ric - 24% Per - 25% In this format, Sainz is right on par with those around him. It also shows the clear divide between the top teams and the midfield. Since getting a top 5 finish as a midfielder is so difficult, whoever finishes P6 will always have a low % of points because any points you lose will be very difficult to make up.

[@CYMotorsport]

I can’t back into your math. This percent in the videos adjusts for positions available assuming the car on par with performance. A 10th place car is not able to win in any circumstance except on incredibly rare occasions. So locking them on max points of P1 seems flawed. But that’s my first pass and always open to hearing anything empirical all day long haha

[@Eggerd]

@@CYMotorsport The positions aren't adjusted to max points of P1. The max possible % of points were found by crafting seasons for each position where that position had the most points it could possibly have while still finishing in said position. For example, max possible % of points for P2 is 119%, which would be a 21-race season ending with P1- 455 points and P2- 448 points. Max possible % of points for P6 is 182%, which would be a season with the following points spread: P1 - 311 P2 - 310 P3 - 309 P4 - 308 P5 - 307 P6 - 306 My goal was to account for the fact that the lower positions have a much greater opportunity to end up with a high % of points. I'm sure it could use some refinement though.

[@tubadude07]

Great stuff as always!

[@CYMotorsport]

glad you enjoyed it James!

[@lughano5253]

Damn that intro was a flex and u know it. Startin to think ur the nbastoryteller on the f1 community

[@CYMotorsport]

Edit: petty ** hahah I’m very petty haha Also I love nbastorytellers vibe. Jimmy high roller is for the children nba is for the adults

[@mikeschmidt3324]

Great video. Love your passion for the sport and level of detailed research.

[@CYMotorsport]

Glad you appreciate it mike much more on the way!

[@Donesyboy]

Fantastic content as always bud 🤙🏿

[@Cheeseatingjunglista]

Lando is the Golden Puppy for the Orange Mac's - Cartlos isn't weirdly "English" enuff, he was bound to get legged over

[@CYMotorsport]

I guess we'll see how that goes with the italians haha

[@MrBubbajiggens]

F1 is such a wonderful sport. Great video.

[@CYMotorsport]

I couldn't agree more Roy!

[@zachlee7945]

you gotta admit that Carlos easily had his best performance of his career in Monza though

[@CYMotorsport]

The man is a beast. You can see how much he’d progress in a top car. I was just saying last year given he doesn’t have one, lando would come on. If you put him in a Merc I genuinely think in a couple years he’d be better than just about every driver on the grid

[@tgp528]

Finally someone talks about Alonso. Not to take away from the video ofc.

[@CYMotorsport]

haha I have been working on that monster for a WHILE. I will have to rally the troops bc they will come for blood. even when I test the concepts on IG holy shit Nando fans are brutal. I'll have to be that much more compelling. But you're in the right spot for someone tackling that haha I feel strongly about dismantling the idea his ferrari was so shit when Vettel was beating him. it makes no sense

[@tgp528]

@@CYMotorsport As a Nando fan, oh boy. Props to you though