Hit and Run in Baseball Sims

In this video I discuss the Hit & Run strategy in baseball sims and talk about how hit & run charts are constructed in various sims. I also offer a proposed formula for determining a batter's hit & run rating.
Here are some links to videos that talk about the hit & run strategy:
Hit & Run Article #1
www.baseballbi...
Hit & Run Article #2
thebruinsblog....
Hit & Run Article #3
en.wikipedia.o...)
#baseball #dice #game #simulation #sim #tabletopbaseball #tabletopsports #apba #stratomatic #statispro #sportsillustrated #sabr #sabermetrics #grandslam #reverseengineering #probability #statistics #seasonticketbaseball #hitandrun #longball #stratomatic

[@EricBerinson]

Hi Steve! Great stuff, as always… My comments must first emphasize my continued interest in what you’re doing… Thanks for these efforts! Comments here in 2 parts. One as it relates to H&R in MLB, the other H&R for Baseball Sims. Please forgive the length… I got a bit carried away. MLB: Regarding your Hit and Run Pros/Cons… Pros: - Less GIDP… Check! - Runners Advance an extra base on G.O. or hit… Check! - Batting average is higher… (caused by middle infielder covering 2nd to get the catchers throw) Check! - Potentially fewer extra base hits… Yep, but this is a con? Cons - Runner forced to steal if batter does not make contact… Check! I’d emphasize this is bad because the runner MUST steal on that pitch, eliminating his “runners choice” and so reducing his stolen base success rate. - Increases lineout/double plays… Check! - Runner could be doubled up on Flyballs… Check! - Mentioned as a Pro- Reduced Slugging % since batter swings more defensively. A study on the Hit and Run was done by Mike Fast from Baseball Prospectus a dozen years or so ago. He used data from 2003 thru 2011, and also quoted great info from Keith Hernandez. I’m summarizing below… The timing of the Hit and Run must be orchestrated around a combination of things with great care: - Used with a runner on 1st and bases not loaded (Don't want lead runner to have to steal home). - Not used in a 3-ball count to allow batter to either walk on a bad pitch, or take a power swing at a good pitch - Used in a count where pitcher needs to throw a strike (Progressively: 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0) - Usually used w/no outs, sometimes 1 out, but never 2, because too much chance of a caught stealing or groundout on the defensive swing thus the 3rd out. - Not often used with a power hitter at the plate… Analytics even then preferred his standard RBI capacity. - Not used when batting team is too far behind (>3 runs behind makes it too risky to waste an out) Cool H & R facts: The Hit and Run (rarer today) was becoming more infrequent even at that time. Over that 9 year period (2003 - 2011), it was used once every 4-5 games (Not sure about exact number today, but confident it’s less). Runner on First has an overall better chance of getting to 2nd or 3rd when a H&R is used. More importantly, even with the lower slugging % of the hitter, H&R is a net gain to eventually score the runner from first! Batters attempting the Hit and Run had a slash line of .294/.323/.403. Similar situations where the Hit and Run was not used yielded a slash line of .267/.324/.419. So you’re spot on regarding the batting average being aided by the H&R (per that hole in the defense to deal with the base stealer). But the H&R cuts walk rates (Swing batta batta! So the OBP impact is negligible). It cuts strikeouts (must swing for contact, rather than be selective and take the pitch or look for a pitch you can drive). The combo of increased lineout double plays and decreased GIDP’s nets to a total decrease in double plays for these plate appearances (with the runner typically on 1st it goes from 13% to 9%). Lineup position matters. Most frequent H&R guy- #2 hitter, > double the frequency of the others. #7, #8, #9 hitters come next. Least frequent- #3 thru #6 (power) hitters use the Hit and Run almost ½ the frequency of the 7/8/9 hitters. The leadoff hitter is also close to the frequency of the #7/#8/#9 guys, perhaps a tad below. #2 tries harder! # times thru the order matters. H&R frequency varies again per the spot in the batting order, but 4th (or after) time thru the order is least frequent for Hit and runs, while 2nd / 3rd time thru the order run neck and neck as most frequent (1st time thru the order is typically 3rd most common… again, it depends on the spot in the batting order). The league average H&R success rate (= advances the runner) from 2003 - 2011 was 60%. One of the best in terms of both frequency (90 times) and success (70%) was Placido Polanco. Skip Schumaker had the best success rate (86% but on much fewer attempts), while Orlando Cabrera had the most attempts (135, 64% success). A good H&R bat needs a good baserunner to succeed too. Juan Pierre was “the” H&R baserunner you wanted at first- 144 H&R plays in 1250 opps, stealing 17 bases (caught 5 times), and getting to 3rd a lot when bat hit ball! I’ll quote Baseball Prospectus… “For a small-ball tactic, H&R was successful over the 9 seasons studied… The value of the hole in the infield defense is real, 27 points were added to BA, net fewer double plays offset the caught stealings, and so the extra bases gained by the runner make it a “plus play.” Sims: Like you I almost never use a Hit and Run in a Sim. But your video motivated me to investigate it. I will never be an H&R aficionado, but I will now try to remember to deploy it under the right circumstances. I thought you did some great analysis, and your suggestion that Sims (like Season Ticket and Batter Up) consider translating standard batter/pitcher card results for Hit and Run use is a great idea. I play Strat-O-Matic Advanced with many (but not all) Super-Advanced rules. I never used Super Advanced H&R (Advanced is what you described in your video… Basic does not use individual H&R ratings, just one overall 2-12 chart). After your video I may try Strat H&R Super Advanced, where the Hit & Run chart is used in conjunction with the Batter Hit and Run Rating if the isolated d6 roll designated “batter” (1-3). But if the d6 designated pitcher (4-6), the pitcher’s card is used with translations similar in style to Season Ticket for K’s, BB’s, Singles and Doubles. As you described, Advanced & Super Advanced Strat (or the Strat Computer Product) has 3 designations for H&R (B, C and D), where no player is an “A” but can become a 4th designation, “A,” with the infield or corners in. The hit chances are not great when the result would have been a hitter card (50% of the time): A= 8 of 36 = .222; B= 7 of 36 = .194; C= 5 of 36 = .139; D = 3 of 36 = .083 But basement advancement chances are very good (outside a hit)… A= 23 of 36 = .639; B = 21 of 36 = .583; C= 16 of 36 = .444; D = 7 of 36 = .194 So a batter who has a lot of double play chances on his card might benefit from the H&R even if it’s a batter result. As for the pitcher card, the alternate results minimize the impact of a strikeout pitcher. Using H&R vs. a high K guy is a positive approach- He throws strikes (actually strikeouts!) and Strat converts these to either BMP (batter misses pitch, runner attempts to steal) or gb (1b) C where the base runner advances 1 base (frequency of these 2 results vary based on the batters Hit and Run skill). Pitchers walks similarly convert to base advancement opportunities, so realistically reflect the OBP reduction. Nolan Ryan may not be the K guy to H&R on (he’s also the BB guy, at least the first 2/3 of his career). Strat has pros and cons here. I do not believe it accurately reflects the 25-30 extra points added to Batting Average. It thus lowers OBP a bit, which it should not. It compensates by over-emphasizing base-runner success some. It does accurately reflect a Strat Player considering H&R for his weaker hitters tht have good H&R ratings, and this drives appropriate hitters to leverage the tactic in appropriate situations (see MLB above for those… 0 or 1 out, right baserunner, right batter, close score). Summary- In Super Advanced Strat, use the hit & run strategy with "A" and "B" ratings, especially if he is otherwise a relatively weak hitter or GIDP guy, against the strikeout pitcher. Do it with 0-1 out and score within 3 runs.

[@steve_etzel]

@@EricBerinson Wow! Thanks for the thorough explanation.

[@greg7129]

I have always thought using the batter or pitcher card / chart is the realistic way. It has been a long time since I have played any sim but I have been thinking of starting some Strat or maybe some Inside Pitch and I will use the batter/pitcher cards for a hit and run in some form or another. Hit and run will not be an automatic call, you will have to roll to see if you can even try a hit and run. Hope this makes some sense. Thanks for you videos, they are all interesting to a sim player I am sure.

[@calebkunz2011]

i've never played a baseball sim before, but this video seems very well put together! how did you get into baseball sims and which is your favorite?

[@steve_etzel]

@@calebkunz2011 I started with baseball sims by creating my own games about 50 years ago. There are several games that I like, both vintage and modern. You can check out my other videos for examples.

[@tedbucy4048]

It looked to me like the Hit & Run charts (Strat/Statis Pro), except for the “Hit & Run” rating, were too simple and didn’t take into account the batters/pitchers normal stats…do these games really analyze each batters results in Hit & Run situations?…Does the analytics back up the “ratings”…obviously I am a doubter on this topic…

[@steve_etzel]

I agree that Strat/Statis Pro H&R charts are fairly simple. Having a H&R rating to differentiate batters helps a lot (it's a rough approximation of what you get when using their actual cards). You make a good point about the basis for the rating. These days there probably is enough information in the play-by-play data to determine actual skill in Hit & Run situations, although I suspect the sample sizes will be small. I didn't say it in the video, but one thing I didn't understand about the Strat C column on the Hit & Run chart is that the implied batting average is just above .200 (ignoring any play results after the "miss/steal" results).