How economists make predictions | CNBC Reports

[@realm8286]

Who else thinks that CNBC is killing it with these videos!?

[@charlech]

with killer legs

[@cfernandes7463]

yes i agree with you, excellent educational videos

[@Rodrigo-cs3dh]

Definetely not me... I was expecting to hear about DSGE models for predictions, but only heard a lot of generalities...

[@idhaliwal]

This is a seriously well done report. Elizabeth and her design / production team have stitched together one of the most engaging and informative reports. I hope they run a series to demystify incredibly impactful topics around economics and even science. Idea for another one - how do climate scientists come up with predictions for global warming and why should we believe it? Such important topics and so critical for all of us to understand the method behind it so we can all collectively trust science more. Thanks guys!

[@stephaniehale946]

Thank you for your work at J-PAL as well. Hopefully, you will receive your Nobel soon, just like Mr. Banerjee. And yeah, your wife rocks at IMF.

[@koshmary112]

After receiving a degree in Economics decades ago, I have concluded that economics taught in school is pseudoscience based on models that work in vacuums.

[@marekspot9314]

Mr. Dhaliwal - Why should you believe climate scientists? If they say there´s a significant chance (let´s say over 50%) for catastrophical results of the humankind´s inaction when it comes to climatic issues do we really want to doubt them for 40 years even their predictions are fulfilling? Do we want to play a russian rulette with our destiny? Read through the IPCC reports (the whole documents, not just the summary for policymakers). Much of the predictions is founded on hard data (CO2 levels, global temperature, occurence of weather anomalies etc. etc.), contrary to economics. In my country the average temperature in last 30 years rose for more than 1 °C, we nearly don´t have any snow in winter anymore, instead of rainy summers we have droughts nearly every time... I would ask a different question - why should we believe economists when they are proved wrong every time with their predictions? When nearly nobody guessed the last financial crisis (or any before that)? In my eyes climate science is much more trustworthy than modern economic theory.

[@marekspot9314]

@@koshmary112 I fully agree. As I invest on USA stock market I see what a sh.t show it is - how hedge fund managers and stock analysts don´t have any clue about anything. For example - Tesla and Apple: Just in last 7 months, shorts reportedly lost $8.4 billion in Tesla and nearly $6 billion in Apple. That´s over 2 bil. USD/month! And majority of these losses stem from people with economic education who think they know what they do. I´d never trusted them with my money.

[@Rodrigo-cs3dh]

Not really. I was expecting to hear about DSGE models for predictions, and only heard a lot of generalities...

[@TheJoEmAgIC12]

I'm just here for Elizabeth.

[@cheeveka3]

Shame if notice her left hand she has a ring.😅 Means either she is engaged or married. Lucky guy.

[@midshipsport]

And I am just here for Gita Gopinath.

[@midshipsport]

@@cheeveka3 she wherez it because there are pervs watching.

[@windskm]

yes

[@miniena7774]

Creeps.

[@jonathanwong8283]

CNBC reporters in a nutshell: Elizabeth = tech and economics Tom = politics and economics Uptin = China and the future Timothyna = entertainment Silvia = European politics

[@qingyutan8596]

I like it when you put China and the future together

[@jonathanwong8283]

I mean, he also did videos on Samsung and Tesla

[@orionlazarus706]

@@qingyutan8596 Why do you sound like a bot?

[@lu881]

@@orionlazarus706 So anyone that likes China now is a "bot". Ironically, spewing out "bot", whenever you find someone that doesn't have the same perspective as you about the world, sounds very 'programmed' and thus 'bot-like'. So...why do YOU sound like a bot?

[@kagayakiraion5307]

I think the girls are hot and the guys are handsome. Even so I have not seen all of them.

[@donfrancis1246]

CNBC videos always throw some insight into new areas of economics for me. Thank you.

[@sehuntiagosenor6104]

Thank you CNBC for always making me feel 'enlightened' by your informative and easily understood coverage. I'm practically just one of 'people on the street' but so really, thank you so much for letting me know how our world works :)

[@Atombender]

All of their 2020 predictions went down the toilet. Economists are horribly biased towards positive trends and outcomes.

[@lucasng9617]

Wow CNBC videos are getting better and better. I love them! Very good content.

[@yashtud]

A video with stats on the accuracy of these forecasts would be great.

[@antoine8306]

Yashwanth Tudimilla exactly please do a summary video of like 10 minutes of that every semester

[@sakshamsingh4378]

I had watched 7 consecutive videos of cnbc And that is insanely insanely Loving there production

[@princeataya4167]

These videos from CNBC is educative and well broken down 👍🏿

[@Kakarott2023]

In Germany, people on the street are very chilled. The media on the other hand dont talk about anything else. It seems like they want to create panick among the people. But people buy alot of products in the supermarket

[@playboy678100]

Just wanted to raise a question, If IMF's forecast has been wrong most of the time, then why does it hold soo much weightage?

[@wittyroark]

I see CNBC - I read the title & click. I see Elizabeth - I just click 😍

[@clementmalala7317]

Am a young economist from Zambia I hope one day I will be part of these amazing minds.

[@sreerajg1984]

These videos are highly informative... Thank you CNBC...

[@Tina.23mittal]

I WON in my economic quiz because of this video Thank you CNBC

[@CNBCi]

Love this!

[@ZAR556]

They just using some applications then let PC calculate for them Give PC some credit !!

[@sajithchannadathu7902]

Well done elizabeth and team and CNBC , i like you reports and do share some of them.

[@virtualking101]

Great insight... every time i watch them.

[@phd8296]

Sounds like a waste of time and resources if they always get it wrong

[@idowuolamipeju9575]

Why would you say so?

[@loganmarquis7378]

Not really

[@luxushauseragency]

This is an area where Google should be involved, going forward. Imagine being able to search for an economic forecast on Google and getting results with pin-point accuracy instead of getting a website or PDF and having to spend time reading and reading. Instead of trying to compete with handsets, Google needs to think about solving problems.

[@Seedcadets]

I was thinking the same exact thing.... we waste tax payer money on this??? Dumb AF

[@simonfier1018]

@@luxushauseragency main use of these economic forecasts is for investing..people make money on the market only where there is a difference of opinion..some have to believe its wrong while others have to believe its right..if everyone has the same information don't you think it will cause a bubble.?

[@IndomieMantappp]

Getting aid from IMF is like rubbing salt to your wound

[@rajubhaskar2757]

Your presentations are awesome.

[@96bharatc]

Good information. Well presented.

[@nandinidash3195]

This economic outlook is of great value.

[@enjoylife9995]

thank you so much for interesting videos👍👍👍 love it

[@mohdkamran1699]

How can I buy it

[@GODFATHEROFFOREX]

Can i get a link to economist prediction on monthly employment changes,retail sales, GDP and CIP.. Based on Canadian , New zeen land , USA and AUSTRALIA

[@theailateshow368]

Finally, Elizabeth

[@afa5593]

They should show these videos in school. Hell, if I was a teacher I would show these videos every time they get uploaded. The videos are great because they deal with a real world topic, something textbooks lack.

[@TusharVasani7]

5: 45 Gita Gopinath from India Smart, intelligent and Beautiful.. Just like Elizabeth.. I m in love with both of them

[@Lydia00001]

Love your videos!

[@lu881]

The way she says "dayDAH"

[@sushantmusale9828]

Thanks for this Vedio

[@jasonmelbaus9077]

I do hear the IMF Forecasts referred to a lot. But I have never heard any Business leaders or Political leaders talk about any strategies or decisions or investments they have made based on the IMF forecasts.

[@midshipsport]

Taxes, prices of products and services are too high.

[@Truong36969]

i watched again because Elizabeth.

[@dhairayvardhan715]

Elizabeth ❣️

[@Ajay-kz9ns]

Covid is like "Let me introduce myself"

[@MarioRafaelM]

- Elizabeth hair looks gorgeous. - They didn't predicted the housing bubble or the financial meltdown. - I know for a fact my country has cook their books for at least 15 years. - The IMF if you look at history throughout the countries they have advised they advise the same thing yet you can't take one single approach to every single country. - Hey IMF even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[@nachomolaolivera7580]

Actually you can have some single approach to every country, it just need to be the right one, and the FMI doesn't has it.

[@MarioRafaelM]

@@nachomolaolivera7580 Try to read Why Asia Works so you can understand the Point .

[@scottwaggoner223]

It was great to see this report, however a little odd because of the lack of disclosures. When you look into the IMF Annual Report, many of the videos on their website have Elizabeth Schulze moderating and reporting on key take aways. Journalistic integrity is important for this type of report, and if there are possible conflicts of interest that can sway the conversation it is essential to be up front about it.

[@CNBCi]

Hi Scott. Thanks for your comment. CNBC and other media organizations do regularly moderate panels at the IMF's meetings. We also have a number of journalists reporting from the events. As with all of our event coverage, CNBC's reporting is 100% independent from the businesses and organizations we report on, meaning the IMF (and others) have no influence on what we eventually write or produce.

[@scottwaggoner223]

Thomas Headley I totally agree, and doubt there was an actual conflict in this case. There are even critiques. What struck me as odd is that these great interest pieces are framed as external and unbiased, for example the camera shots to the side of the action, when in this case it was clear there was more to the story with possible closer ties. Not to say it impacted the story, but still would have been nice to know.

[@mymagicloulou4394]

We give our gratitude to international monetary fund for giving us data to help us build our business and some methods to improve our business.

[@Leoshan18]

More details please

[@vegetajr4097]

Right economists make predictions not forecasting. This might be self-fulfilling job. Now we need to know "Why economists predictions are usually wrong"

[@andresrafael1570]

Increíble me encanta la economía

[@maybanmauviettech1590]

Who send me the links to Elizabeth's video please?

[@PatrickJS]

yikes, this didn't age well

[@IDarkCalibur]

4:28 is this The Office

[@Chris_Toh]

Good 👍

[@kagayakiraion5307]

Am I the only guy who remembers Anna Kendrick in The Accountant by looking at her?

[@chinmoys2015]

Beautiful

[@1434325jeff]

Oh my! Elizabeth is so pretty and smart.

[@naveenreddy9864]

They forecasted India's GDP growth 1 year ago as 7.4 Now expected is around 5. So silly how they work

[@auricocularis963]

I always wanted to know this

[@akshaymohite7743]

First of all the government should try to bring down the non performing assets which has disrupted the lending power of the banks and should try to come with a better policy to nabbed the wilful defaulters.

[@aliibrahim171]

is it totally unbiased?

[@aburanick]

Ill tell you, light up a joint with a shot of whiskey, then roll the dice.. that's how they get their predictions

[@jasmikko]

Well they seemed to get it wrong again in 2020

[@virtualking101]

I have few suggestions like organisation for islamic cooperation, un habitat , international court of justice nad many more. These are often ignored I want know hiw they work.

[@vishnupriyatham1170]

Please Teach Our Ministers in India. It's Need of the Time and Protect Economy. Thank you.

[@Arun-nt4kv]

IMF failed to predict the dotcom bubble, 2008 financial meltdown, recessions etc. The only exception was Raghuram Rajan who predicted the crisis, but was silenced by the US treasury when he presented his findings.

[@aseprohmandarjuara2891]

Smart Economic for world Economic Inlook and Impactlook todaya anda future from Big Data Valid.

[@saeedbasabain4188]

God bless all

[@James-yy4mn]

So how did the IMF's Structural Readjustment programs go? ....that bad huh.

[@mparryuk52]

Coronavirus shows just how useless the IMF has become! They missed it!

[@JeremyNathanielAkers]

Hedgeye covers everything, better than the IMF I might add

[@manish5209mk]

I'm not economist but i can predict.

[@ilovelimpfries]

I'm gonna miss lizzie on CNBCI.

[@fabiolamenendez7221]

I didn't understand anything lol

[@cardcode8345]

Damm the head IMF is American India. Lol we are everywhere

[@colindtrix2927]

She not the head. Kristalina Georgieva is the chairperson of the imf lol

[@Arun-MM]

Gita Gopinath is the chief economist of IMF

[@hardrock342]

She is called as anti-national by indians just like all the good economists are.

[@Arunganeshanmdu]

Love you eliza, Love you cnbc

[@TaiwanLife2024]

Title should be how economic make wrong predictions all the time

[@MoePowerIT]

Suraj Verma thats like saying its not worth running a casino lol. No1 can predict the future. In the long run economists makes predictions that are correct more often than not

[@twist777hz]

Suraj Verma I prefer "How economists can't make predictions but try to anyway (and fail)"

[@hardrock342]

Economists make right predictions but those are domestic economists. World bank and imf are rarely right but they do not include all of the world economists. Just take a look at what rajan or manmohan said two years ago and their predictions about india were true.

[@twist777hz]

@@hardrock342 They're all the same. They all studied the same textbooks, read the same journal papers, and use the same models. It's not like central banks have access to superior knowledge and higher quality data that the IMF/WB doesn't.

[@hardrock342]

@@twist777hz it's not all about data and theories in economics (it is but there are exceptions and they are very often). Domestic economists have more practical sense in their data and it matters a lot than imf which just predicts everything optimally.

[@guadalupeeg5034]

3:38 They don't always get it right...

[@dpragy]

Very cute video

[@arbaz79]

Our Queen Elizabeth is finally back❤

[@baetoven]

No pol is going to predict a recession. Most job economists are pragmatic and will not stick out their necks. Most economists also tend not to have high skills in awareness of market psychology.

[@billygraham1541]

sensationalism of journalism and media is a big thing. Every miniscule is seen with zoom lens.

[@Wingly113]

Felicity Jones? what?

[@koshmary112]

Economists fail often to predict recession because Economics models are useless in the real world. They need psychologists and AI analyzing real time data, not models or formulas.

[@PrestoMediaProductions]

I can make better predictions then those people in fact I know better for myself

[@sitharthanpanneerselvam6911]

She looks gorgeous

[@andresrafael1570]

Y sus predicciones a los comportamientos 😃😁

[@kalyan_bhusal]

On the topic of India nepal boarder dispute

[@shauryarathore9368]

Proud to find Indian American as chief economist of IMF. Indians have shown their prowess in every sphere.

[@jasonbourne9819]

Too bad they don't have prowess to lift their country's ass out of poverty.

[@syedmohsin18]

@@jasonbourne9819 though it is meant as an insult. But that is true all the smart people here look to immigrate as the country is really not in a good place.

[@loftyhume7641]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@loftyhume7641]

Apart from toilet building. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🚽🚽🚽🚽🚽

[@shauryarathore9368]

NRI are brain deposit rather than brain drain for our country. Dr Raghuram Rajan has won the award for being the best governor of central bank. Our country has been recently declared ODF free. NRI itself act as a big source of remittance for our country. We only have the world knowledge of zero by Aryabhatt and the man who gave the knowledge of infinity was also from India Srinivasa Ramanujan. If Indians are not smart why US goverment has increased the entry level fees for H1B visas. Why other people are not able to prove their worth ? In terms of value for money and return on investment. Our mission Mangalyaan was launched at a cost cheaper than what was required to make film gravity. If our country is not great then why Women of Poland Karolina Goswami is doing the series India in details glorifying our nation

[@seanbellfort2298]

SERIOUSLY. Let's get real.....whatever they are doing are a total waste of time, efforts and waste of taxpayers money. Most predications are incorrect and wrong.

[@alexcolin2066]

As a training economist, I confirm it

[@raviermcparaiso2291]

Sean Bellfort| True

[@jasonbourne9819]

@Robert Fields rubbish. All they do make biddings for the rich elite. Pretty ironic that a money lender is predicting the future of the world economy for us.

[@jasonbourne9819]

@Robert Fields you morons couldn't predict the GFC. Something that cost so many people all over the world immense hardship and misfortune. Meteorologist- predicts weather Scientists- predict natural phenomena. Economists- loves analysing economic catastrophes after they occur.

[@jasonbourne9819]

@Robert Fields they predict the the most simple and obvious ones. The little bubbles here and there. They couldn't predict the gfc and eu crisis. Durr

[@rohitn707]

👍🇮🇳

[@jasonbourne9819]

They don't make predictions. They just fool everyone.

[@anonymoususer4283]

How . I mean corona virus prediction proved right

[@223costa]

Their predictions aren't even right!!! Smh

[@trailblazer3889]

Elizabeth is a true babe.

[@Chandankumar-qw6hb]

Oecd

[@lordfarquaad6189]

You can never predict the future

[@harshulchugh9220]

Mam why are you in journalism you should be a model

[@aashish616]

Blockchain can solve the problem. Real time.

[@AvadaKedavra943]

Em, she's cute and intelligent. tho she's way older than me lol edit, reminds me of Melinda Gates.

[@RaghunandanReddyC]

By rolling 🎲.

[@XKillerX25]

This economist are just as unreliable as the weather people.

[@christiandelapena8623]

shes so pretty

[@robot2374]

Errrrm there’s an error in the video The title should be how economists make wrong predictions

[@loftyhume7641]

Down with capitalism.

[@dirtyscant3447]

Buy Bitcoin.