How TSMC’s Fate May Pan Out Under the Trump 2.0 Administration

How TSMC’s Fate May Pan Out Under the Trump 2.0 Administration｜Taiwan Talks EP505

Рет қаралды 42,401

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 189

@JasonGoodVibes 21 күн бұрын

Trump did not say he would take away subsidies. He simply complained about all of the garbage spending in the act that has nothing to do with Chips at all.

@alchemist_one Ай бұрын

I wish they had a Mandarin-language channel with talks like this. The guests are great.

@RandyAbraham-xf5qp 2 күн бұрын

Garbage spending? Such as?

@amistradd5392 Ай бұрын

If Taiwan move and produces their "higher value" chips in US, Taiwan will lose their leverage over US. What's stopping US to forego their security umbrella for Taiwan if those chips and its production is safe in US soil? Current geopolitical climate and US' domestic politics leaned more to protectionism and isolationist. If you have nothing to offer, US will have no interest to lift their finger for you.

@dcc70 Ай бұрын

How do you explain US security commitment to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines? Anime, kpop, and adobo?

@DOFT.mp4 Ай бұрын

The chips TSMC will produce in the US are not their high value chips, so you dont need to worry about that

@jullian2598 Ай бұрын

This is all under the presumption that the US can't produce theses chips already due to some manufacturing process that isn't known, which really isn't the case, and aren't just because of the unique workforce situation in the Asia pacific with different levels of manufacturing levels in close proximity.

@stevec4185 Ай бұрын

@@dcc70US has defence treaties with them but not Taiwan

@joythought Ай бұрын

@@jullian2598 TSMC is a vital part of producing all the top high volume chips. That's not reproducible in any medium term. Intel is in survival mode still and not yet in a position to roll out a duplicate solution.

@davidgoodnow269 23 күн бұрын

I have not known of this show before, and this first discussion was very favorably impressive. The understanding the speakers expressed was very good, and the moderator did his job very well.

@petermelville5524 Ай бұрын

Great show! So, chips made in the USA, EU and Japan are not up to the technology that will be held back in Taiwan. I compare it to how the USA does not sell the F22 to any country. It is too good to share, even with friends. TSMC should continue to protect its research and highest production by keeping it native. There is no way that the US can do the 3nm in Arizona. They will be lucky of they can make the 4nm. Perhaps Taiwan needs to pay their engineers and researchers much higher salaries, subsidies to create a nationalized relationship with TSMC. Confidence towards Intel has recently declined, leading to them to get a lower amount of their US Chips Act budget allotted to them.

@inquisitvem6723 Ай бұрын

Trump wants peace and not wars he said. He wants to negotiate peace for all the wars. Thus this could give China the green light to invade Taiwan and take over TSMC without military repercussions.

@inquisitvem6723 Ай бұрын

😂

@SumTingWong888 Ай бұрын

The Fab in Arizona has already mass-produced the 3nm chips and getting better yield than the Fab in Taiwan. Don't know if it is due to newer equipment or something else. But they already DID.

@SumTingWong888 Ай бұрын

You need to read up on the chip industry. Samsung and Intel Fab in the U.S. have already started producing 2nm and lower nm chips with their High NA EUV from ASML that they bought in 2023. They just haven't learned to produce in mass quantity. They will soon be able mass produced in the second half of 2025.

@inquisitvem6723 Ай бұрын

@@SumTingWong888 so this means China take over Taiwan and it wouldn’t matter. 😂 I mean trump wouldn’t do anything about it.

@tompilling4154 Ай бұрын

Most don't realize that TSMC came to being as EPA regulations pushing semiconductor manufacturing offshore

@davidgoodnow269 23 күн бұрын

Inaccurate. It was U.S. Sanctions on the Republic of South Africa that forced all U.S. manufacturers of electronics to move overseas, because the U.S. banned importation of the elements that were solely sourced in the R.S.A. The P.R.C. then bought the mines in the R.S.A., and moved refining to the P.R.C., and invited those companies to move their factories there. T.S.M.C. grew up around that, as its Taiwan location gave access to the materials the P.R.C. could provide, as the leaders of the P.R.C. moved to improve relations; while its location made it acceptable as a source to the defense industries and their suppliers.

@JasonGoodVibes 21 күн бұрын

Thats a small part of nothing.

@carlflygt Ай бұрын

Fantastic review of the semiconductor industry! Very useful. 😊

@cidhomerimperialpneulemen2107 26 күн бұрын

TSMC is golden, if the Arizona factory goes online Tariffs won't affect all chips produced in USA.

@justindressler5992 4 күн бұрын

The majority of refined raw materials for building modern chips comes from China. So this game wont end well for nations that depend on supply of essential elements for chip production. TSMC is supplying chips to China even NVidia are there is too much on the line for these companies too walk away from those markets. Look at ASML earnings obviously any compensation the US promised ASML didn't help cover deficits of leaving Chinese market.

@tonyburzio4107 Ай бұрын

The US protected Taiwan from West Taiwan since it's conception, during it's rise and will protect the people of Free China until the end of time.

@dcc70 Ай бұрын

Dumb move by tsmc. The Arizona fab wouldn't exist without Biden's chips act. They will need Trump's continuing support. They should have separate ceremonies for each president so they can each get the PR. They could even hold them simultaneously.

@Fay-Hen Ай бұрын

you know what... Biden isn't as shallow, if anything Biden probably want to focus on Russia and Israel and immigration at the moment.

@RedLancerMoto 24 күн бұрын

@@Fay-Hen Who cares about Biden? He's on his way out.

@John_Doe3 4 күн бұрын

Trump favors China more though. He doesn't realize or care about the importance of Taiwan and TSMC. He listens to bribes.

@johndewey6358 10 күн бұрын

Thank you for the excellent discussion.

@zagan1 23 күн бұрын

It might be built but they are struggling to employ people in USA as they lack prior with the knowledge

@patbyrneme007 Ай бұрын

Nor did the studio experts deal with the obvious economic hardship in Taiwan that will inevitably come from increasing foreign competition and TSMC being forced to produce overseas. Not only will this lead to a significant loss of employment in Taiwan but in it's balance of trade. The United States is not Taiwan's genuine friend but it's exploiter, forcing it to hand over its competitive advantage.

@liepsan 24 күн бұрын

Right, how u mention in your other comment, they should invest in a current hostile country? Sure the USA is no true friend, but looking at Hong Kong right now.... Or would you rather keep it all national? Otherwise you can think of it as insurance. If China ever does take over the country, chances are the company will be state owned. Also oversupply? Not that long ago there were severe shortages, that problem still isn't really fixed. As mentioned TSMC is one of the few that produce the worlds best around 80% of it???

@davidgoodnow269 23 күн бұрын

You could be correct, time will tell. I think the economic problems will be minimized, but there are always dislocations, and dislocations are painful. But nothing should become broken. What I suspect will be more difficult is managing the coming economic growth well, before the Great 'Quake of '27.

@rickjames18 Ай бұрын

It appears that the United States regards TSMC as a company that warrants protection, and extends this perspective to encompass Taiwan as a whole. Trump may want certain changes to past deals or new ones but most of all I think Trump will want TSMC to protect advanced tech from getting into CCP hands. That is the Biggest risk in my opinion. If China were to get the most advanced TSMC chip technology if would put all of Taiwan in danger.

@Rcg1382 Ай бұрын

They will abandon you after they get what they wanay😅

@lysanderhuynh Ай бұрын

I guess CCP will get all the TSMC technologies by 2030.

@jamesz80 Ай бұрын

100%

@marcelo55869 25 күн бұрын

From the point on the video he clarified the Arizona decision was political I got the whole picture. It was chosen because it was a swing state, it will be given many artificial tax exemptions. The state does not have the natural advantages like personal and natural resources or local supply chain. It is a politicians class pet project. The politicians are shooting everyone's in the foot again.

@eddyngaue6495 24 күн бұрын

Like how Ukraine gave its nukes in exchange for guarantee security 😂 That is a real life scenario we obviously see playing out.

@MrValiant101 Ай бұрын

What people seem to forget is that the US is looking for cutting edge in the US. Currently TSMC is still ahead, but only with 4nm. Should Intel or Samsung do 2-3nm on US soil they will lose the edge. And TSMC has to keep their 2-3nm in Taiwan for now, so they are playing with a handicap in the US.

@BellJH Ай бұрын

Intel is doing 2nm and below in the US from 2025

@ColoniaMurder20 Ай бұрын

its so funny machine to produce chips came from Europe..

@MrValiant101 Ай бұрын

@ColoniaMurder20 If you are referring to ASML, the designs are licensed from American Universities. So it's even more ironic.

@mozartendless8858 27 күн бұрын

@@BellJHdon't expect that will happen! Intel might be merged 2025 , that’s reality! Samsung, don’t mention 3-2nm, it still can’t make the 5nm yield rate high enough to mass production!

@mid105 15 күн бұрын

Wrong they arent only ahead with 4nm, theyre ahead with 3nm as well. Theyre the only foundry producing 3nm at high enough yields. Main reason why intel and Samsung had to cut orders from ASML because no one is ordering from them. Intel and Samsung arent catching up their foundry business is a massive clusterfuck and their boards are inept. A Semiconductor company having to split their R&D on design/foundry cant compete with a company thats solely focused on foundry and a company solely focused on design. TSM also has the added benefit of not competing with their own customers, don't need to give your IP to a competitor to make your chips. The main reason they do leading edge in Taiwan is because all their R&D is in Taiwan and its much cheaper than doing it in the US. Theyll move 3nm to the US fabs when they start mass producing 2nm pretty simple.

@samuelmorales2344 4 күн бұрын

Texas loves Taiwan.

@buzzlightyear3715 Ай бұрын

Delay launch party for Trump. Spineless.

@gatolibero8329 5 күн бұрын

If you're a citizen of Taiwan, and your largest company is moving overseas, start to worry. Because the next step is cannon fodder. 😢

@thomasleong9401 Ай бұрын

This two, is talking best is kow tow low to Trump. And if Trump says jump, this two will say how high Boss lol

@jrmint2 Ай бұрын

that's how Trump operates...no sincerity needed. jUst the photo op for him to brag about.

@sferris33 5 күн бұрын

If the U.S. wants another fab in TX, they will have to throw a lot more money at TSMC to encourage them to do so.

@disposabull 4 күн бұрын

No they won't. The people who design the chips are in the USA, the people who build the machines that make the chips are in the Netherlands. TSMC is just a middleman manufacturer.

@AdamPNelson Ай бұрын

Jeremy Chin-Cheng Chang. This name makes me smile.

@jrmint2 Ай бұрын

Hold the inauguration party when Trump is sworn in...the big baby needs it to pump up his ego which will smooth the way.

@wildcatmahone-md6me 10 күн бұрын

You can't talk about TSMC without mentioning the leverage ASML has.

@TheSeejayA 28 күн бұрын

😂 this is funny. Nice episode! Don’t think there will be any impact regardless. It’s set in stone since Covid started

@EMs86-x7o 19 күн бұрын

Excellent program. One comment…If Trump interferes too much with TMS, its Japanese fabs will outproduce US both in terms of quality and yield. If Japanese teams get good leadership, their group mentality become focused and tenacious. Their semi leadership lost the way during the last 2-30 years. TSM will provide that leadership. Once the direction is set the government, universities, institutions all along the chain work together. We have seen exceptional breakthroughs from outside the box innovators there as well. Also there is a deep mutual warm respect and relationship between Taiwan and Japan. At least 50-50 chance Japan will out perform the US. President Trump has been badly advised in this domain. Scattering subsidies instead of concentrating is a mistake. Let’s see if he is able to get better advice. Otherwise Japan will outstrip US.

@chrisjones-rd8it 13 күн бұрын

i hope you guys understand tsmc has no choice in this matter - this will be done - we paid for your protection for 80 yrs. the moves will be made and if China does invade or attack you - we - your proectors must have access to yhese chips in order to free you - and we will free you

@alabamacajun7791 Ай бұрын

OK 1 YEAR, please varnish it then tune and play it again. If you came close to spec it should sound better, uh more rich deep tones. Or it may sound like home depot. Do It!

@patbyrneme007 Ай бұрын

How ridiculous to have a programme about semi-conductor development covering the United States, Europe, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, and never once mention the 'gorilla in the room' - China. Nor did the experts in the studio think to raise the danger of oversupply arising from all these future plants, despite the fact that cycles of overproduction have always been the big problem in this sector.

@HuyHTX 28 күн бұрын

Because China wants to be in their own echo chamber?

@mclovin6537 27 күн бұрын

Soooooo ridiculous they didn’t mention the great ol China my pinky comrade 😒

@patbyrneme007 27 күн бұрын

@mclovin6537 Shame that you don't respond to the valid points I raise and prefer to resort to ridicule. This only strengthens my criticism.

@davidgoodnow269 23 күн бұрын

I guess you overlooked the extended discussion of the oversupply problem during the next-to-last portion of this episode.

@chankane 7 күн бұрын

So, Taiwan will no longer have TSMC there, effectively relocated outside and away from Taiwan?

@MM-t7p 26 күн бұрын

The problem for Taiwan is that it's inevitable that China will catch up it may be 5, 10 or 15 years. It would have been interesting to hear this panel's opinion on this, however understanding the sensitive nature of this topic. As Kissenger himself said "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal"

@mattmmilli8287 26 күн бұрын

They won’t 😮 EUV will be ancient history by then and they are blocked from buying those machines. They will *eventually* copy it as they do but the cutting edge will have moved on.

@eddyngaue6495 24 күн бұрын

We all know innovation comes from stealing

@eddyngaue6495 23 күн бұрын

What very great insight and analysis?

@DigitalYojimbo 23 күн бұрын

Once Intel and Samsung catch up there will be no need for the US to protect Taiwan.

@jamescole3152 14 күн бұрын

Would Taiwan give a US company billions of dollars to compete against TSMC in Taiwan? We all know the answer to that question.

@lance8080 Ай бұрын

Make in America or get banned 🇺🇸

@Fjdhfyhk Ай бұрын

LoL

@inquisitvem6723 Ай бұрын

Chinese should build factories in America for their EVs…this creates jobs for local Americans and lowers car prices for Americans…win win for all.

@taysikuu1748 Ай бұрын

USA makes them bankruptcy

@ChristynaLallawmkimipc-dt2kl Ай бұрын

But china is the world biggest chip buyer lol. Nothing to worry about that

@owl4638 Ай бұрын

intel bagholder detected

@Fish_Ventura Ай бұрын

Dear TSMC,, HUGE mistake,,, you will suffer at the negotiating table,, my crystal ball 🔮 is quite sure.

@robertprawendowski2850 Ай бұрын

⭐️

@hyuxion Ай бұрын

First Foxconn then TSMC? That is terrible news for Trump!

@inquisitvem6723 Ай бұрын

What do you mean?

@rickjames18 Ай бұрын

What is terrible news?

@petermaltha 14 күн бұрын

TSMC has invested in the US so tariffs are not applicable

@JorgeLubary 5 күн бұрын

Why is the US subsidizing these companies?

@rcud1 4 күн бұрын

it was a bribe

@lastChang Ай бұрын

Hopefully, the US 🇺🇸 won't prosecute TSMC for its export violation. TSMC chips are found imbedded in Huawei products. - This means that it quietly produced these chips for the blacklisted Chinese Huawei.

@waynelee891 Ай бұрын

A customer of TSMC was found to have violated the terms of agreement and sold the chips to Huawei, not TSMC itself.

@stanleynowak9325 Ай бұрын

TSMC should be building 3 manometer chips in Arizona. If you want a subsidy then make the best here.

@ChristynaLallawmkimipc-dt2kl Ай бұрын

@@waynelee891this bots is Indian

@NathanDean79 19 күн бұрын

TSMC is building a chip fab in Arizona. Intel is building 3 new fabs one in New Mexico, Oregon, and Ohio. All 4 will be able to manufacture the most advanced chips in the world. The the 2nm chips are the most advanced on the planet and will be for some time. Or maybe it’s the 3 nm chips. It’s one of those. China has the technology to build 10 nm chips. Intel before these chip fabs could build 6 nm chips while TSMC and Samsung were the only ones in the world who could build the 3 nm. That’s about to change. Intel has got their mojo back. They are about to remind everyone that it was they who invented the first mixrochip. But IBM but Intel. The infamous Moore law yea Moore worked for Intel. In the next 10 years Intel will invent a revolutionary microprocessor that will change the world. China is 10 years behind us. Oh and there is only 1 company on this planet who makes the machinery to produce such tiny powerful chips. I forgot its name but it is located on the Netherlands. IE they are allies of the USA and the free world. They will not sell China the equipment. Apple used to outsource its chip manufacturing to IBM and then Intel until about 2020 now TSMV makes the new M chips. Them and the new Qualcomm chips and the brand new intels and AMDs are all bad ass. The Apple chips are the most advanced though because they are just as powerful as the others and a still consume 40-50% less power than the other ones. These SOCs are crazy advanced. In a few years Intel is going to come out with a chip with a completly new and original architecture. Not an X86 or an Arm based chip. Right now every device you have is one or the other.

@Diamond_Hanz 20 күн бұрын

Intel will eat tsmc lunch

@nakiflo Күн бұрын

Between Intel and TSMC or Nvidia I don’t know who is the bunny 🐰 or the turtle 🐢 anymore. Any insights? 😂

@josephnduaguibe Ай бұрын

When high chip manufacturing goes to the US Taiwan is finished 😂😂 Taiwan is getting played like a Fool

@abhishekbhandari6362 Ай бұрын

you don't understand technology at all, do you? The US TSMC fab's tech is 7nm compared to the 10 in Taiwan which are at the cutting edge 3nm? No one else knows how they do it other than those on that island, not even the US branch. It is the opposite of what you said. Building a old gen fab in the us is good enough to appease USA for now. There are infinitely more considerations. My guess is you don't know anything about the semiconductor sxupply chain, industry or technology in general, right?

@wingzwonder Ай бұрын

should go to china right? lol

@Pause_café_Avec_Dr_Djon Ай бұрын

They will not be producing the 7nm chips due to a lack of skilled labor in the US, and many skilled workers from Taiwan do not wish to relocate here.

@weaverlforest6454 Ай бұрын

USA doesn't have the engineers! We don't have a good enough STEM education.

@josephnduaguibe Ай бұрын

@@abhishekbhandari6362 if United States wants the expertise they will get it, Taiwan will bend the knee simple

@petermelville5524 Ай бұрын

Taiwan rules! Slava Ukraini

@Williamwiliam Ай бұрын

Most people in Taiwan cannot afford housing

@urhumbleservant 15 күн бұрын

6:32 Fabs internationally

@fernandomanurung2949 Күн бұрын

Arizona solar panel

@ramonching7772 5 күн бұрын

Free country in Asia? The US want to take away your rice bowl. And you obliged? Don't make me ridicule your spineless action. 😂😂😂

@Western_Decline Ай бұрын

Tell me: How did Japan lose its semiconductor competitiveness? Was it because of US economic coercion and weaponized law fare? Or something else. Speak honestly.

@MM-t7p 26 күн бұрын

Japan lost it's competitiveness because the US stood on their neck

@seanim6846 4 күн бұрын

Woo Taiwan wants to play on the fence?

@qake2021 28 күн бұрын

🤣🤣🤣🤣 going a long with 🇺🇲 to contain 🇨🇳 is a failed business mistake‼️ 😒😒😒😒

@dxelson Ай бұрын

The US will nationalize TSMC US after it gets up and running lmao, thats when they can abandon Taiwan forever, cheaper than supporting Taiwan during war time

@gsurtos6588 Ай бұрын

nah~~~~ even after it gets up and running, the US wont cuz wat they want is the 1nm and less manufacturing that TSMC in taiwan is currently doing. and if the US nationalize the tsmc fabs in the US before the transfer of that technology would be equivalent to the US shooting itself in the foot. of course, taiwan would never let that happen since it would give away any sort of leverage taiwan has over washington DC. the chips act doesnt include the high end 2nm and less manufacturing. otherwise TSMC would not have agreed to the chips act. so realistically, assuming the big wigs at DC are thinking logically. the US would never nationalize tsmc. just wouldnt make sense on any angle.

@rcud1 4 күн бұрын

US doesn't nationalize any company

@davidchou1675 Ай бұрын

Roh roh! Wanwanese alliance with U.S. not working out -- wow, who would've thunkit LOL Hmm, maybe Japan is more reliable SMH

@tobyod Ай бұрын

Trump making friends worldwide...

@albertlim2252 Ай бұрын

Much N.E.D funding does this channel get????

@lamrof Ай бұрын

Nanjing?

@sentenialxmen3227 Ай бұрын

Don't ever give your knowledge of the chip to anyone. Taiwan is done without semiconductor industry. TSMC will be alive even if they don't sell to US market.

@robertbslee4209 Ай бұрын

Taiwan should only open FABs in America if American opens Military Bases in Taiwan! Learn from Ukraine, America is not coming to help,

@engineeringVirtue Ай бұрын

Taiwan doesn't even want to defend itself... it's military budget is way too low, not enough military training, and it's still trying to play the USA and China against each other. It wants all the advantages of China trade while having the United States defend it.

@tainechen1634 Ай бұрын

Let's just say Taiwan's politicians sell tsmc for American words of support so they can have votes in the next election.