I Simulated EURO 2024 10,000 Times.

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Many thanks to Craig Edwards from @UnderthePitch!
Here's how the simulation works: • EURO 2024 Simulations:...
In this video, James Allcott simulates EURO 2024 10,000 times and looks at every group, how the knockout stage could look, likely routes to the final and who could win.
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James Allcott content focuses on Premier League, Champions League, EFL Championship talking about Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Barcelona, England, Chelsea, Jurgen Klopp, Erik Ten Hag, Mikel Arteta, transfer news, tactical analysis and much more. James has made content with Mark Goldbridge from the United Stand, Rory Jennings, Ben Foster, Spencer FC, The Club, Thogden, JaackMaate, ESPN and many more.
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[@twenty-two8651]

Well I simulated it 10 001 times and still have no girlfriend.

[@omorodionblessing8608]

Related comment

[@bettercalIsaul]

A bit like England

[@mihaistoichescu9745]

Ok

[@Amine_meddah]

Dam same

[@PLAsshole]

same😢

[@Flewisjr]

After the tournament is finished, can you show what simulation was the closest?

[@ramon7473]

Very good idea!

[@HarryFernandes15]

that be very interesting

[@sandrobarreto7002]

That would be insane, imagine if one of the 10'000 simulations was actually spot on!

[@PLAsshole]

yes

[@Stolz_statt_Scholz]

I mean you need to simulate Bundesliga 18000 times, to get the unbeaten Leverkusen

[@awieaffe4278]

we just good buddy

[@gabrielpatrick2051]

Bro I don't believe 18000 simulations would give us unbeaten Leverkusen Maybe Bayern in some moments, but not Leverkusen

[@sallagjanos7288]

​@@gabrielpatrick2051 Bayern would get one in like 50, or even less

[@PLAsshole]

They are unbeaten outside of BuLi too

[@PLAsshole]

@@sallagjanos7288when was the last time BM had 50 unbeaten games? LK has 49 so far iirc.

[@ShaunLevett]

That's so like Switzerland to draw every game. Nice and neutral.

[@otto_jk]

I think the simulation heavily underestimates how big a difference Germany having the home advantage gives them. There's no way Belgium are bigger favourites than Germany.

[@UnderThePitch]

Hi, I made the simulations and Germany’s home advantage was taken into account. I think the model favours Belgium as over the past couple years they’ve been a bit more consistent than Germany, who have dropped to 16th in the World Rankings compared to Belgium being 3rd. That paired with Belgium having a much more generous group than Germany (Belgium get out the group 90% of the time compared to Germany’s 84%), I can see why the model has Belgium ahead of Germany. (However, personally I agree with you and think Germany have a good chance)

[@otto_jk]

@@UnderThePitch With Belgium and Germany specifically, the simulation also hasn't taken into account how heavily the squads have changed recently. Nagelsmann+Kroos basically makes the Flick era data irrelevant and similarly Belgium have recently lost key players like Hazard and Alderweireld. Also Belgiums consistent dominance against weak teams even though they aren't that good against big teams makes them stronger in the rankings than they actually are.

[@antoniobento2105]

​You are absolutely right Belgium is very underrated. Also Portugal being favourites doesn't surprise me considering that after the round of 16 they get in the oposite side (meaning they will likely only face France, ​England or Belgium in the finals and not before) and that gives them a huge probabilistic advantage. I had calculated arround 16% chance of them winning but that's with a little bit of bias and hope because I am portuguese. Nice work! :)@@UnderThePitch

[@detectivefabes]

It’s because Germany is bad

[@otto_jk]

@@detectivefabes Germany just beat France

[@MichaelJones-wh9cy]

Makes sense if Portugal have a very high likelihood of getting out of their group, means they're less likely to trip up earlier on

[@brgracio]

Yeah, in this sim we (Portugal) have more tries than anyone else, so it can make the difference in the number of tournament wins. It would be interesting to see a metric like #tournament wins / # knockout qualifications. That would help remove the bias from having an easier group.

[@stephano2996]

To be fair its almost harder not to advance to the final 16 😂

[@tfc91420]

Portugal probably has a top 3 squad in Europe right now, the easiest group and the easiest side of the bracket if they win their group. It makes a lot of sense that they finished top of this tbh.

[@joao_monteiro22]

you on drugs

[@codiesmith9425]

Please can you make an analysis of Arne Slot's tactics and how Liverpool would play with them?

[@bigted6351]

I've been waiting for this too. Complete the trilogy after Alonso and Amorim

[@ProducerCai]

👀

[@thew5262]

Bald n vibes

[@JamesLawrenceAllcott]

Keep an eye on the channel tomorrow! 👀

[@Saka_is_overrated]

Yes PLS!

[@brucemccrorie3751]

Vamos Portugal!! 🇵🇹

[@dariussalepetru6770]

Good luck from Romania 🇷🇴💛🇵🇹

[@sasch_xd6323]

🫶🇵🇹🤝​🇷🇴@@dariussalepetru6770

[@TheGreatKerro]

As a Scot, in this moment in time I feel we are going home with no points and no goals.

[@tbow6719]

This explains a lot about why Scot’s celebrate other nations beating England as much as their own team winning

[@jamesg9468]

And yet, most English wouldn't mind seeing the Scots do alright. Who is the bigger man here?

[@OleAndreasMessi]

As a Norwegian, atleast you're going...

[@TheGreatKerro]

@@tbow6719 being winless in 7 is a killer for the belief machine

[@finlaygodfrey8222]

@@TheGreatKerroinjuries galore as well😢

[@BohemianRaichu]

I've been saying that people are sleeping on Portugal. I deserve a cookie.

[@bhvillaman4401]

People been saying that since the dawn of time and what have they won? 1 euros?

[@BohemianRaichu]

@@bhvillaman4401 more Euros than a fair few countries, including England.

[@wesley5900]

@@bhvillaman4401 dos incoming

[@user-dt4sb1dw5t]

Surely that just makes you a bot

[@jamesg9468]

Lol imagine thinking Portugal are a dark horse. Most predictions have England, France and Portugal as the top contenders.

[@kd5973]

I would say Portugal are by far the faves. Their form is insane right now. They’re scoring a ton of goals.

[@jamesg9468]

Portugal are up there, but "by far" is a bit fruity. England and France are the joint favourites, followed by Portugal and Spain.

[@henriquecaldas835]

@@jamesg9468England???? Did you saw they playing football on the last national games?

[@Briareos1712]

Well... Germany just beat France, so... Consider putting them up there as well

[@craggerrs]

@@henriquecaldas835 portugal last their last game to slovenia

[@adwaitkale315]

I am a portugal fan but let me tell you they have not faced great teams and i think their first demo test will be against croatia on 8th June. If they play poor then trust me they will be knocked out in the quarters

[@LetsTalkFPL]

Not watched yet but I imagine England win 9,999 times.

[@Dwayndibb]

He must be using Pep or Klopp as the manager.

[@LeoDragon34]

Only in an alternate universe

[@NotApplicableF1]

These videos are so so so good. Thank you so much again James.

[@cristian2994]

For Romania would be an Avengers Endgame situation, where we lose in every situation but one 😂

[@10ondra]

Love the 8150, where Czech Republic makes the semis.

[@Argenswiss]

That would be the perfect Swiss run. A perfectly neutral run leading to victory

[@CallumStephens2705]

I did some data crunching and decided that Slovakia are the most likely dark horses outside the obvious teams so put £1 on them to win the whole thing 😂

[@joelschittenhelm5571]

If you put 1 on every Team its not that big of a loss if a favourite team wins but probably a massiv win if an underdog wins

[@gartensocke747]

oh yeahh, gamblin!​@@joelschittenhelm5571

[@evanmurphy122]

I love the thought that someone would want to watch Amerifan commentary for the Euros

[@reecevanwyk2579]

I've been waiting for this video😏❤

[@hudsonrolfe9633]

The "more like stimulation" line killed me, something straight out of a skit show didn't know you had it in you James 🤣

[@lewistrundell9466]

Bloody love a JLA video

[@hatsoffsam24]

The numbers don't lie. I personally feel like Portugal & France are the 2 favs

[@sheilaburrowes9081]

I adore the retro look on the knockout brackets. It looks like a mid '00s Euros.

[@empty420]

It makes senses that portugal is above france taken in consideration the strenght of the groups in the first round due to the group of france being way stronger than the one of portugal the chance of maken it out of the group of portugal is way higher and if they make it out to be first because then you have to face weaker opisition wich means that it less likely for portugal to face an oponent like england or france in the first round of knock-outs this means its more likely to get further in the tournament and win the entire thing -

[@BSandman]

So there’s going to be a lot of draws and pens in the knockouts and maybe a upset here and there, also a dark horse run as well. Going to be an exciting tournament!

[@markstrauss7178]

I actually predict Portugal will have a surprisingly early exit this year. I think that the stats favour them so much because of their qualification record. However, they had a really easy group and didn’t look too convincing with their narrow victories over Slovakia and Iceland. I predict a round of 16 or quarter final exit for them.

[@radiatormike6090]

Partly agree with you, I don’t think they’ll exit early but I really don’t think they’ll win it, but who knows

[@dariussalepetru6770]

@@radiatormike6090 True! I think England, Germany or France is going to win Euro 2024 now

[@radiatormike6090]

@@dariussalepetru6770 I actually completely agree with those 3 yeah, as an England fan I'll will always hold some optimism aha

[@kretecek_rl]

I would go with quarters or semis. They are a good team, but no shot they have a better chance than Spain, England or France. My top 5 only have Belgium changed with Germany and some different placements with France and England on top.

[@someone8653]

Quarters are not too early.. But i agree with RO16 I Think they will go out in the RO16 too and pass 2nd in their group.

[@user-xm1vl6gv8s]

I hope Belgium wil win, they are still one of the most undertated teams. In the lost euro they where knocked out by Italy, who won the whole thing, in the world cup they where in a group with Morocco and Croatia, who ended very high in the tournament, and they do won against Canada, they just had hard groups, now they have an easyer one, I think they will surprise us... 🇧🇪🥇👑🔥💯💪🌟

[@Young-fy9jj]

do a vid after euros reflecting to see how accurate it was

[@jakelfc3472]

It's teams from group B other than Albania and the winners of group A, C, D and F that will win the overall tournament. It all depends on whether Spain win group B and won't/don't lose all their knockout matches other than the final, or England beat the third placed team in that group (probably not Croatia) and have a shot at facing France (winner of group D) in the semi-final. England are hoping that Portugal (winner of group F) face Germany (winner of group A) in the other side of the draw in a semi-final, so we have a chance of playing the game of our lives to beat France (who I believe only Germany have the beating of). It's possible that the semi final is a repeat of the nations league final Spain vs Croatia, or the World cup final of 2018 being a final between France vs Croatia. That's what the simulator should have told us.

[@Audiostyleable]

Love the outro

[@sirdoesstuff950]

keeper: clean sheet the entire tournament, even on pens ballon d'or: and the winner of the ballon d'or 2024 is.... MESSI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@ADK_7]

​@SpectreShadow13 no one knows 😂

[@littlelucy100x8]

Big up Craig

[@josepirate7]

Portugal definitely has a squad to win the euros amazing players all around and a mix of youth and experience. Fingers crossed🇵🇹❤️

[@edavis6077]

PORTUGAAALLLLLL

[@darrenadams77]

i would never mentally or financially recover from a Scotland england final. Hadrian's wall would be rebuilt and Wallace could finally rest. CMONNNNN!

[@jamesg9468]

The Scotch will get 0 points and 0 goals, thanks for coming though.

[@Alaiksandr]

It would be amazing for England to play Portugal at some point in the knockouts. We have some revenge to dish out.

[@Thomas-xi3yd]

Lol it is portugal that have some revenge to dish out

[@ADK_7]

You'll regret after the game tho Portugal would win if they meet England

[@HawkEye665]

Being polish football fan is hard 9:56

[@JosephTaroni]

Wonder if by the end of the tournament any of the simulation got the entire thing spot on

[@miken56]

That simulation noise transition noise sounds like a tech bug in my ear

[@adanaliz01]

is there a place where you can see all the simulations?

[@froodlenoodle]

gotta love the three "first" videos, excited to watch england win 4 times and norway manage to win it 5 times somehow

[@PatrickvanStokken]

Better watch this right away before it gets deleted like the relegation prediction vid!

[@thechroniknerd]

I love this video! I also hate the sound effects

[@cindella204]

I’m based in Washington DC where the embassies like to host watch events, and I’m trying to imagine the British Embassy’s joint watch event for an England v Scotland final, and then what happens when Scotland declares independence the next day 😂

[@JonMcglynn]

Where’s the SLOT video his stile of playing the man and how he would line out ?

[@wijnandfens2259]

You are the first one who use the right schedule (Best #3 rule) the best numbers 3 are distributed differently over the 1st knock out round, because it is determined from which groups the numbers 3 come from, based on that 'code' it is determined where the country is placed in the next round. Poules vs 1B vs 1C vs 1E vs 1F ABCD 3A 3D 3B 3C ABCE 3A 3E 3B 3C ABCF 3A 3F 3B 3C ABDE 3D 3E 3A 3B ABDF 3D 3F 3A 3B ABEF 3E 3F 3B 3A ACDE 3E 3D 3C 3A ACDF 3F 3D 3C 3A ACEF 3E 3F 3C 3A ADEF 3E 3F 3D 3A BCDE 3E 3D 3B 3C BCDF 3F 3D 3C 3B BCEF 3F 3E 3C 3B BDEF 3F 3E 3D 3B CDEF 3F 3E 3D 3C Great!!! Al the youtubers who made a prediction with 'the Telegraph' schedule are wrong, cause that schedule isn't right. So keep up the good work!

[@aloysiusthefish7076]

The transition sound effect sounds like erupting splooge

[@kyelldegolla6504]

Honestly with the belgium team rn im not able to say where well end up, but one things for sure if we dont win our group with ease they better just pack up and leave

[@deepxgamer2313]

portugal we have a soild team this year soild in every position I bewe can reach the final semifinalists euro 2000 finalists euro 2004 2012 semifinalists 2016 winner's

[@Andy-w33to]

Portugal with some mad easy group tax

[@melem7808]

fun fact, croatia since indepedence never lost against Italy, only draws or wins against them.

[@rredy]

12:32 czeczia

[@SinoLegionaire]

It’s official, a Scotsman made this simulation

[@jamesg9468]

Jimbo is part Scotch.

[@vaderpt]

Portugal won 2016 just winning the semi final match, in the 90 minutes. All other matches were draws

[@julioleiva2037]

4:25 boca juniors be like

[@mike727272]

Portugal 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹❤🎉🎉 Força Portugal 🇵🇹 🍻❤️👏💪💪💪

[@rafa_maia]

is there a way for people to use this simulation?

[@eastres6863]

i feel the same way about spain as he feels about england. uncomfortable with the idea that we should be expected to win this group. i think we really need a showing this tournament that gives us some pride and confidence again. hoping for a breakout goalscorer. VIVA LA ROJA

[@VeronicaMorris-ri5wk]

1 month to gooooooooo

[@CalciatoriCollector0217]

Georgia has the highest possibility to get bottom, but nice video 🎉

[@Alex-yv4vr]

10,000 is obviously a lot of sims. But with such variance, it’s probably not a large enough sample size

[@Thomas-jl8xr]

zwitzerland going for the portugal 2016 route

[@nestpasunepipe1173]

can you simulate 10000 more for recent euro so that we can be sure that the simulation works pls

[@AndrewL4me]

What happens in the simulations with the English media, any good stories?

[@just_a_yokai1103]

12:33 France against who? It is confusing that Czechia and Chechnya are written the same in the middle but are pronounced differently

[@alexandre4970]

Damn. We favorites? That means we are crashing out in the group stage.

[@matthewtillett3624]

When’s the Liverpool slot coming ?

[@Luke-ft4wo]

Bro Serbia coming below Slovenia is MAD

[@hanys6201]

As a Polish dude I can see that group D looks pretty realistic, we gonna finish 4th and just say cy@ to whole Ass EURO 2024

[@devangg]

Loved the take me out part 😂😂😂

[@techfreak2227]

Devang ????

[@devangg]

@@techfreak2227 yeah?

[@techfreak2227]

@@devangg it's you , are you in 12th or no ?

[@stein4866]

a fourteen minute video with a two minute ad😂

[@Mr.Galaxxxxxxxxxxy]

San Marino 🇸🇲 🙌🏾

[@roberw1912]

I have a dark horse in Germany Florian Wirtz is going to make the difference in his ability to score and give assists.

[@samuelschonenberger]

Winnimg the tournament drawing every game? We are the Kings of neutrality

[@mahfuzrahman5930]

What happened to the fall out

[@bogomildimov6360]

While I do think FM has always, rather undeserved, favored England for good International performances, this EURO might just be the one England finally wins. I mean, I have never seen England so powerful. 2018, 2021 and 2022 have been good for them, but now the team has matured and many of their players are comfortably among the top players in the world. I'd say England and France will be the top favorites. Portugal is the third option. I can't see any other team winning it, unless Italy pulls an Italy and fucks everybody up like they tend to do, from time to time, out of fucking nowhere.

[@henrybauze2932]

I think Portugal won so many times because they had the easiest group and so got through in about 2 thirds of sims - also explains why France was so low If you did it from the most common knockout configuration I’d say England wins most of the time

[@raphaelweber8007]

7:43 what about England in the semi finals 🫢🤣

[@kempyj98]

Turkey Austria and Switzerland feel like parennial 3rd place dark horses🤣

[@Jose-fb1yu]

La simulación 8540 me gusta

[@spooked2104]

Germany pens {Neuer}

[@adampatel1727]

James wheres the slot Liverpool video maaaan

[@Freddogod]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@thomashart3473]

I really fancy Netherlands to win it, but i dont know why 🤔

[@euanx4194]

so your telling me as a scot, there’s a chance?

[@Gugenzi]

🇬🇪 ITS COMING HOMEE‼️‼️

[@barnaclefelching4079]

❤

[@JasonheimerXD]

has every team won it atleast once ?

[@ohno6044]

i love you

[@davidpt]

These simulations are exactly the same as mine

[@noskill4510]

I'm German and allthough I'd like the outcome of sim 7820, I'm sure my nerves wont...

[@Heymantosan]

❤❤❤❤❤

[@eldo7112]

13:23 might as well have not censored the countries flags at all, you can see every one jesus

[@gs_bilo]

Just put 500€ to Portugal winning the euros. Thanks for your advice

[@gracelikesgrapes7161]

I would bet 10€ that portugal wont make it in the finale if i could

[@ChorltonOutlaw]

OK bro

[@Kbdvlogsfan]

The biggest takeaway from this video for me is that Scotland are winning the final against England 😍

[@jhannon27]

you mean it wasnt simulated using football manager?!

[@Jamie-kf2vf]

I'm not disputing the simulations, but for me I'd swap Portugal and France for the number 1 spot. I think number 1 will be England or France, but with Southgate it's hard to imagine England reaching their potential.

[@otakubaka4271]

The reason why portugal are favorites on stats its because they are a top 3 side with the easiest group More chanses to go 1st and easier first round of 16 more times than france and england Theyre most likely path is also way easier with england and france being on the same side of the knockouts with portugal on the other side if all 3 teams finish first in theire group