I Simulated EURO 2024 10,000 Times.

[@Flewisjr]

After the tournament is finished, can you show what simulation was the closest?

[@ramon7473]

Very good idea!

[@HarryFernandes15]

that be very interesting

[@sandrobarreto7002]

That would be insane, imagine if one of the 10'000 simulations was actually spot on!

[@支那解尿军有犬性]

yes

[@fafaello]

​@@sandrobarreto7002It will be more amazing if somehow the 10 000 simulations won't get it right

[@ShaunLevett]

That's so like Switzerland to draw every game. Nice and neutral.

[@xxxnyb]

Fr 😂😂😂

[@MrTartancam]

Hey, it's a plus for us Scots! 😂

[@sergeyou2328]

Yes swiss is neutral :)

[@josephaviles5556]

I think they’d call it a positive result 😉

[@twenty-two8651]

Well I simulated it 10 001 times and still have no girlfriend.

[@omorodionblessing8608]

Related comment

[@bettercalIsaul]

A bit like England

[@mihaistoichescu9745]

Ok

[@Amine_meddah]

Dam same

[@支那解尿军有犬性]

same😢

[@Stolz_statt_Scholz]

I mean you need to simulate Bundesliga 18000 times, to get the unbeaten Leverkusen

[@awieaffe4278]

we just good buddy

[@TrickBrawlStars2001]

Bro I don't believe 18000 simulations would give us unbeaten Leverkusen Maybe Bayern in some moments, but not Leverkusen

[@sallagjanos7288]

​@@TrickBrawlStars2001 Bayern would get one in like 50, or even less

[@支那解尿军有犬性]

They are unbeaten outside of BuLi too

[@支那解尿军有犬性]

@@sallagjanos7288when was the last time BM had 50 unbeaten games? LK has 49 so far iirc.

[@MichaelJones-wh9cy]

Makes sense if Portugal have a very high likelihood of getting out of their group, means they're less likely to trip up earlier on

[@brgracio]

Yeah, in this sim we (Portugal) have more tries than anyone else, so it can make the difference in the number of tournament wins. It would be interesting to see a metric like #tournament wins / # knockout qualifications. That would help remove the bias from having an easier group.

[@stephano2996]

To be fair its almost harder not to advance to the final 16 😂

[@bonglesnodkins329]

Correct.

[@NS_thebest_memes]

Portugal proved that they are very bad in match of 16 IRL, so no big hopes for them.

[@otto_jk]

I think the simulation heavily underestimates how big a difference Germany having the home advantage gives them. There's no way Belgium are bigger favourites than Germany.

[@UnderThePitch]

Hi, I made the simulations and Germany’s home advantage was taken into account. I think the model favours Belgium as over the past couple years they’ve been a bit more consistent than Germany, who have dropped to 16th in the World Rankings compared to Belgium being 3rd. That paired with Belgium having a much more generous group than Germany (Belgium get out the group 90% of the time compared to Germany’s 84%), I can see why the model has Belgium ahead of Germany. (However, personally I agree with you and think Germany have a good chance)

[@otto_jk]

@@UnderThePitch With Belgium and Germany specifically, the simulation also hasn't taken into account how heavily the squads have changed recently. Nagelsmann+Kroos basically makes the Flick era data irrelevant and similarly Belgium have recently lost key players like Hazard and Alderweireld. Also Belgiums consistent dominance against weak teams even though they aren't that good against big teams makes them stronger in the rankings than they actually are.

[@antoniobento2105]

​You are absolutely right Belgium is very underrated. Also Portugal being favourites doesn't surprise me considering that after the round of 16 they get in the oposite side (meaning they will likely only face France, ​England or Belgium in the finals and not before) and that gives them a huge probabilistic advantage. I had calculated arround 16% chance of them winning but that's with a little bit of bias and hope because I am portuguese. Nice work! :)@@UnderThePitch

[@bugchallin]

It’s because Germany is bad

[@otto_jk]

@@bugchallin Germany just beat France

[@NvFranco]

Portugal probably has a top 3 squad in Europe right now, the easiest group and the easiest side of the bracket if they win their group. It makes a lot of sense that they finished top of this tbh.

[@joao_monteiro22]

you on drugs

[@xxxnyb]

They have the easiest path

[@NvFranco]

@@xxxnyb They do yeah. But also you never know how things can play out in a tournament. They could face Scotland/Slovenia/Hungary in the first knockout or they could even face Spain/Italy/Croatia, etc if any of them shit the bed. Or if Portugal messes up in the groups and finish 2nd they could face Netherland/France in the first knockout. They have the easiest side of the bracket but ONLY if they win their group, which they should but you never know.

[@xxxnyb]

@@NvFrancoagree, will be an epic choke if they don’t win group easily and then at least make it to quarter finals

[@NvFranco]

@@xxxnyb I’m Portuguese and I wouldn’t be that surprised. We seem to always play to the level of the opponent in tournaments. 2016 Euro we finished 3rd in a group of Hungary, Iceland and Austria lol still won the tournament but still was really worrying after that showing. This Portugal squad has much more quality then the team that won the euros though

[@Aemond2024]

A 1/8 final Netherlands - Portugal, the rematch of the Battle of Nürnberg 2006 would be amazing

[@xxxnyb]

A rematch of battle of nuremberg will happen and it’ll be absolutely epic

[@ruiviegas9879]

according to statistics the outcome will be the same

[@roodborstkalf9664]

Netherlands record against Portugal is abysmal.

[@Aemond2024]

time for revenge

[@xxxnyb]

@@roodborstkalf9664Exactly Portugal dominates them

[@josepirate7]

Portugal definitely has a squad to win the euros amazing players all around and a mix of youth and experience. Fingers crossed🇵🇹❤️

[@rosariorusso7777]

I agree as italian

[@nba6124]

Até os comemos caralho.

[@aninhabitantofcarcosa9345]

If they put in the bench to Felix and Ronaldo they'll have a chance

[@The_exit18]

It's kind of sad but it aged like milk

[@josepirate7]

@@The_exit18 I didn’t say we would win I said we had the quality to win it and it showed We were better than France

[@brucemccrorie3751]

Vamos Portugal!! 🇵🇹

[@sasch_xd6323]

🫶🇵🇹🤝​🇷🇴@@dariussalepetru6770

[@ze_o_zen]

Vamos caralho!

[@flytrap1376]

Pra cima deles

[@codiesmith9425]

Please can you make an analysis of Arne Slot's tactics and how Liverpool would play with them?

[@bigted6351]

I've been waiting for this too. Complete the trilogy after Alonso and Amorim

[@ProducerCai]

👀

[@thew5262]

Bald n vibes

[@JamesLawrenceAllcott]

Keep an eye on the channel tomorrow! 👀

[@Le_Sperm]

Yes PLS!

[@ZORIN-X]

The numbers don't lie. I personally feel like Portugal & France are the 2 favs

[@telux450]

Portugal just lost to croatia

[@CarlosSilva-cx6oh]

​@@telux450England lost to Iceland the day before and France drew with Canada, so the 3 main favourites all slipped a little, it's only friendlies

[@kd5973]

I would say Portugal are by far the faves. Their form is insane right now. They’re scoring a ton of goals.

[@jamesg9468]

Portugal are up there, but "by far" is a bit fruity. England and France are the joint favourites, followed by Portugal and Spain.

[@henriquecaldas835]

@@jamesg9468England???? Did you saw they playing football on the last national games?

[@Briareos1712]

Well... Germany just beat France, so... Consider putting them up there as well

[@craggerrs]

@@henriquecaldas835 portugal last their last game to slovenia

[@adwaitkale315]

I am a portugal fan but let me tell you they have not faced great teams and i think their first demo test will be against croatia on 8th June. If they play poor then trust me they will be knocked out in the quarters

[@sirdoesstuff950]

keeper: clean sheet the entire tournament, even on pens ballon d'or: and the winner of the ballon d'or 2024 is.... MESSI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@ADK_7]

​@SpectreShadow13 no one knows 😂

[@cristian2994]

For Romania would be an Avengers Endgame situation, where we lose in every situation but one 😂

[@noshame1785]

LOOK AT ROMANIA NOW

[@10ondra]

Love the 8150, where Czech Republic makes the semis.

[@TheGreatKerro]

As a Scot, in this moment in time I feel we are going home with no points and no goals.

[@tbow6719]

This explains a lot about why Scot’s celebrate other nations beating England as much as their own team winning

[@jamesg9468]

And yet, most English wouldn't mind seeing the Scots do alright. Who is the bigger man here?

[@OleAndreasMessi]

As a Norwegian, atleast you're going...

[@TheGreatKerro]

@@tbow6719 being winless in 7 is a killer for the belief machine

[@finlaygodfrey8222]

@@TheGreatKerroinjuries galore as well😢

[@NotApplicableJB]

These videos are so so so good. Thank you so much again James.

[@pelayomedina2174]

The E group was absolutely crazy, everyone draw, 4 points and romania first

[@Argenswiss]

That would be the perfect Swiss run. A perfectly neutral run leading to victory

[@pelayomedina2174]

Well in fact, it's accurate, except from portugal (a great disappointment) and germany. The four teams in semifinals are France, Spain, England and Netherlands (Netherlands had the easiest path) so not bad I am pretty sure spain is going to win this euro, at least, has proved to be the best team.

[@abuzerdag]

I'm actually hopefull for this one as a Turk. Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Arda Güler... Many big names we have this year. I hope we at least see quarter finals.

[@stxrrymidnight]

We did! Inshallah we can get to semis

[@LetsTalkFPL]

Not watched yet but I imagine England win 9,999 times.

[@Dwayndibb]

He must be using Pep or Klopp as the manager.

[@LeoDragon34]

Only in an alternate universe

[@rosariorusso7777]

Is not about manager but about players and caracter.. when things get heavy english disappear... is about mind and mentality.. thoose guy are not able to overcome out the pressure.. the importance of the game make them shaking and this is about mentality culture trust me guys is this the problem of english🇮🇹🇮🇹

[@Ameisenigelytk]

Austria is so underrated!

[@mabusestestament]

Yes, but many countries are underrated 👍

[@jakelfc3472]

It's teams from group B other than Albania and the winners of group A, C, D and F that will win the overall tournament. It all depends on whether Spain win group B and won't/don't lose all their knockout matches other than the final, or England beat the third placed team in that group (probably not Croatia) and have a shot at facing France (winner of group D) in the semi-final. England are hoping that Portugal (winner of group F) face Germany (winner of group A) in the other side of the draw in a semi-final, so we have a chance of playing the game of our lives to beat France (who I believe only Germany have the beating of). It's possible that the semi final is a repeat of the nations league final Spain vs Croatia, or the World cup final of 2018 being a final between France vs Croatia. That's what the simulator should have told us.

[@sheilaburrowes9081]

I adore the retro look on the knockout brackets. It looks like a mid '00s Euros.

[@BohemianRaichu]

I've been saying that people are sleeping on Portugal. I deserve a cookie.

[@bhvillaman4401]

People been saying that since the dawn of time and what have they won? 1 euros?

[@BohemianRaichu]

@@bhvillaman4401 more Euros than a fair few countries, including England.

[@wesley5900]

@@bhvillaman4401 dos incoming

[@user-dt4sb1dw5t]

Surely that just makes you a bot

[@jamesg9468]

Lol imagine thinking Portugal are a dark horse. Most predictions have England, France and Portugal as the top contenders.

[@Cimmi1221]

9:15 one of the greatest moments in football was the Aguero goal for Man City to win the Prem. Two goals behind in stoppage time and they ended up winning. THAT is what a fan wants to see. Winning 1:0 is fine. Winning 5:0 is better. But having a full 90 minutes (or more) of your heart in your hands, only to win in the final minutes - THAT is what makes sport great. The most memorable games of football, or tennis, or rugby, have all been those games that played with my emotions, only to hand me a victory at the end. So. For me. Although it would probably give me a heart attack in the moment: having England win on pens three games in a row to win the cup would be SO much better than a comfy 1:0, 1:0, 1:0.

[@evanmurphy122]

I love the thought that someone would want to watch Amerifan commentary for the Euros

[@EdwinNeirynck]

I hope Belgium wil win, they are still one of the most undertated teams. In the lost euro they where knocked out by Italy, who won the whole thing, in the world cup they where in a group with Morocco and Croatia, who ended very high in the tournament, and they do won against Canada, they just had hard groups, now they have an easyer one, I think they will surprise us... 🇧🇪🥇👑🔥💯💪🌟

[@pelayomedina2174]

In which simulation italy clasifies in the last minute?

[@pelayomedina2174]

No one expected austria first, that was insane

[@empty420]

It makes senses that portugal is above france taken in consideration the strenght of the groups in the first round due to the group of france being way stronger than the one of portugal the chance of maken it out of the group of portugal is way higher and if they make it out to be first because then you have to face weaker opisition wich means that it less likely for portugal to face an oponent like england or france in the first round of knock-outs this means its more likely to get further in the tournament and win the entire thing -

[@kyelldegolla6504]

Honestly with the belgium team rn im not able to say where well end up, but one things for sure if we dont win our group with ease they better just pack up and leave

[@alplop]

Enjoying the content and production quality James. Kudos.

[@xxxnyb]

Portugal 🇵🇹 will win insane form atm

[@TheReconJacob]

In what parallel dimension does England win the Euros with only 1 goal. You're telling me that the simulation decided that of all the teams to win the world cup on mostly penalty shootouts, it was ENGLAND!?

[@paulmshepherd]

Switzerland 3 - Hungary 1, would be interesting to run it again with the information from the first games 😂

[@CallumStephens2705]

I did some data crunching and decided that Slovakia are the most likely dark horses outside the obvious teams so put £1 on them to win the whole thing 😂

[@joelschittenhelm5571]

If you put 1 on every Team its not that big of a loss if a favourite team wins but probably a massiv win if an underdog wins

[@gartensocke747]

oh yeahh, gamblin!​@@joelschittenhelm5571

[@matejsebechlebsky12]

no, we are weak af

[@mabusestestament]

@@matejsebechlebsky12 Hence “dark horse” 🍻

[@bonglesnodkins329]

Portugal topping the overall probability table basically just reflects their favourable odds during the group stage. If you took the most likely group standings and then ran 10,000 simulations from that point onwards, Portugal would not have that kind of advantage over the other teams.

[@wijnandfens2259]

You are the first one who use the right schedule (Best #3 rule) the best numbers 3 are distributed differently over the 1st knock out round, because it is determined from which groups the numbers 3 come from, based on that 'code' it is determined where the country is placed in the next round. Poules vs 1B vs 1C vs 1E vs 1F ABCD 3A 3D 3B 3C ABCE 3A 3E 3B 3C ABCF 3A 3F 3B 3C ABDE 3D 3E 3A 3B ABDF 3D 3F 3A 3B ABEF 3E 3F 3B 3A ACDE 3E 3D 3C 3A ACDF 3F 3D 3C 3A ACEF 3E 3F 3C 3A ADEF 3E 3F 3D 3A BCDE 3E 3D 3B 3C BCDF 3F 3D 3C 3B BCEF 3F 3E 3C 3B BDEF 3F 3E 3D 3B CDEF 3F 3E 3D 3C Great!!! Al the youtubers who made a prediction with 'the Telegraph' schedule are wrong, cause that schedule isn't right. So keep up the good work!

Hopefully you got it right and Portugal wins. Would love a Portugal vs England final. Two attacking teams.

[@Alex-yv4vr]

10,000 is obviously a lot of sims. But with such variance, it’s probably not a large enough sample size

[@mike727272]

Portugal 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹❤🎉🎉 Força Portugal 🇵🇹 🍻❤️👏💪💪💪

[@Alaiksandr]

It would be amazing for England to play Portugal at some point in the knockouts. We have some revenge to dish out.

[@Thomas-xi3yd]

Lol it is portugal that have some revenge to dish out

[@ADK_7]

You'll regret after the game tho Portugal would win if they meet England

[@mabusestestament]

Yes, people may seem to forget that England got so far last time because they (tried to get and actually) got the easiest path *and* at home. Imagine they’re up against a path with the (on paper) biggest countries. I’m not saying they can’t get through, but it gets a lot more unlikely England will make it to the finals. Personally I think semi finals max, quarter finals quite a real possibility.

[@BSandman]

So there’s going to be a lot of draws and pens in the knockouts and maybe a upset here and there, also a dark horse run as well. Going to be an exciting tournament!

[@hudsonrolfe9633]

The "more like stimulation" line killed me, something straight out of a skit show didn't know you had it in you James 🤣

[@HellowCraft]

7:44 Yes.

[@SinoLegionaire]

It’s official, a Scotsman made this simulation

[@jamesg9468]

Jimbo is part Scotch.

[@deepxgamer2313]

portugal we have a soild team this year soild in every position I bewe can reach the final semifinalists euro 2000 finalists euro 2004 2012 semifinalists 2016 winner's

[@reecevanwyk2579]

I've been waiting for this video😏❤

[@calmvibesnamaste9946]

Watch out for Hungary!🇭🇺🇭🇺🇭🇺

[@petereykyn2537]

THAT AGED LIKE MILK😂

[@Emerald_Playz]

@@petereykyn2537now your comment aged more like milk 😂

[@eastres6863]

i feel the same way about spain as he feels about england. uncomfortable with the idea that we should be expected to win this group. i think we really need a showing this tournament that gives us some pride and confidence again. hoping for a breakout goalscorer. VIVA LA ROJA

[@bogomildimov6360]

While I do think FM has always, rather undeserved, favored England for good International performances, this EURO might just be the one England finally wins. I mean, I have never seen England so powerful. 2018, 2021 and 2022 have been good for them, but now the team has matured and many of their players are comfortably among the top players in the world. I'd say England and France will be the top favorites. Portugal is the third option. I can't see any other team winning it, unless Italy pulls an Italy and fucks everybody up like they tend to do, from time to time, out of fucking nowhere.

[@Duval-In-The-Wall]

Simulation 5916 is the greatest thing ever 😂

[@jerichoa]

Round of 16 results: Spain, Germany, Italy, holland, Belgium, France England Croatia

[@adanaliz01]

is there a place where you can see all the simulations?

[@MassiveEverywhere]

The biggest takeaway from this video for me is that Scotland are winning the final against England 😍

[@darrenadams77]

i would never mentally or financially recover from a Scotland england final. Hadrian's wall would be rebuilt and Wallace could finally rest. CMONNNNN!

[@jamesg9468]

The Scotch will get 0 points and 0 goals, thanks for coming though.

[@CohenMore]

@@jamesg9468 Says the boy that "wouldn't mind Scotland doing well", cheers for the motivation James. Yous can boo our anthem all you want, but you won't hear your boos over our singing.

[@liolittlelion]

Can you show us after the EURO wich Simulation predicted the future (with percentages etc.)

[@roberw1912]

I have a dark horse in Germany Florian Wirtz is going to make the difference in his ability to score and give assists.

[@hanys6201]

As a Polish dude I can see that group D looks pretty realistic, we gonna finish 4th and just say cy@ to whole Ass EURO 2024

[@tomh90s]

I really fancy Netherlands to win it, but i dont know why 🤔

[@roodborstkalf9664]

They are always in the mix, but they never win. If coach is choosing a solid midfield (including Koopmeiners and Reinders) and a solid defense (Aké, van Dijk en de Ligt) they have a chance. They can win if they emulate the Italy of the 1980-90's. Accept that you strength is not in attacking players, so strenghten your midfield and only play 2 attackers.

[@just_a_yokai1103]

12:33 France against who? It is confusing that Czechia and Chechnya are written the same in the middle but are pronounced differently

[@PatrickvanStokken]

Better watch this right away before it gets deleted like the relegation prediction vid!

[@HawkEye665]

Being polish football fan is hard 9:56

[@froodlenoodle]

gotta love the three "first" videos, excited to watch england win 4 times and norway manage to win it 5 times somehow

[@ricardo_ribeirete]

Let's go Portugal 🇵🇹

[@melem7808]

fun fact, croatia since indepedence never lost against Italy, only draws or wins against them.

[@cindella204]

I’m based in Washington DC where the embassies like to host watch events, and I’m trying to imagine the British Embassy’s joint watch event for an England v Scotland final, and then what happens when Scotland declares independence the next day 😂

[@toonex5399]

trusting england on pens is like trusting politicians, don't do it

[@Elbvby]

well, switerland and portugal are already out, si this might be a interesting simulation

[@casemiro3663]

GERMANY VS FRANCE FINAL

[@rosariorusso7777]

And france win for sure.. but i believe england will not go that far😅

[@paulhiggins105]

I can’t express how funny it would be if Scotland beat England in the final, bring on simulation #5916

[@ysbrandd]

I dont know if this aged well, look at the form of the dutch squad! can see them as 1 of the 3 most likely winners right now!

[@erxo1]

10:28 Romania topped the group 💀

[@JonMcglynn]

Where’s the SLOT video his stile of playing the man and how he would line out ?

[@Parker_Douglas]

Everyone has written Scotland off . Who doesn’t love an underdog. Cmon Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@80destry]

I honestly feel like the simulation couldn't be more wrong about Georgia. I think Georgia could surprise people in this tournament. But we will see :)

[@td_beardo9999]

As a scot I would say making it out the group would be more then enough. Sadly uhh losing 5-1 Yeeks… 2026? Nah…..happy if we QUALIFY. 2028? Hopefully?

[@MaksimeUgrekhelidze]

who's hear after euros ( come on England )

[@edavis6077]

PORTUGAAALLLLLL

[@HAP3000]

Don’t appreciate the Scotland slander but it will make it all the more enjoyable when we top the group and get to the semis

[@lewistrundell9466]

Bloody love a JLA video

[@ermusas1]

Your data wasnt on pair. still entertaining, thank you

[@McLysne]

Please learn the different between percentage and percentage points.😊

[@Jamie-kf2vf]

I'm not disputing the simulations, but for me I'd swap Portugal and France for the number 1 spot. I think number 1 will be England or France, but with Southgate it's hard to imagine England reaching their potential.

[@otakubaka4271]

The reason why portugal are favorites on stats its because they are a top 3 side with the easiest group More chanses to go 1st and easier first round of 16 more times than france and england Theyre most likely path is also way easier with england and france being on the same side of the knockouts with portugal on the other side if all 3 teams finish first in theire group

[@rafa_maia]

is there a way for people to use this simulation?

[@mitzanu2007]

My predictions were like this: Switzerland 1 or 2 in group Hungary good chances for second, but they have to play insane Theres no way Scotland had good chances in this group. Also, regarding Romania, if i wouldve checked their results in the qualifiers, I wouldve had bigger hope for them, which they did prove. If they beat Slovakia they are 2nd.

[@calciatorifc2024]

Georgia has the highest possibility to get bottom, but nice video 🎉

[@satirick__5]

Where did he simulate it

[@mouzah_]

COME ON PORTUGAL! PORTUGAL MENTIONED 🗣🗣🗣🗣

[@matthewtillett3624]

When’s the Liverpool slot coming ?

[@peternielsen8723]

At home, surely Germany should be in the top 5 favorites. Did the simulation take hometeam advantage into consideration ?

[@matthings4133]

As a Belgian, I like those odds

[@BrawlLuka]

Bro Serbia coming below Slovenia is MAD

[@thechroniknerd]

I love this video! I also hate the sound effects

[@DiogoSantos-ix5sl]

It feels crazier having England as second favorites than Portugal as favorites… 50 years no titles anyone?

[@Voyager.2]

58 years you mean.

[@mabusestestament]

Because it is 🍻

[@AndewLLL]

What happens in the simulations with the English media, any good stories?

[@Silith13]

Credit where it's due. Right now the prediced top 4 are still in.