This Time is Different - Market Bubble Phase "New Paradigm"

[@fizzyfish-k4q]

"Buy the dip, and money on the side lines." YES! Been hearing this a lot recently.

[@jwillsher80]

The four most dangerous words ever: “this time is different.”

[@kkp4297]

stonks only go up

[@santiagograciano8402]

Thanks for highlighting my comment. I was being sarcastic BTW 😂

[@icossss4352]

2 videos in 1 day, Santa truly arrived !

[@yupingsun40]

The most dangerous thing for your investment is to time the market! You want to get out of the top, but you do not know the top! The worst is even you time the top by luck, you are not likely to time the bottom and get back in time! I invested in Canadian dividend fund in 1998 and now it is up annually about 10%

[@louisahernandez]

Great video, not really good at reading chart and stuffs like that, but I still think investors should be careful at this time. I'm actually a newbie in this space, so I'm open to hearing other investors' take on this.

[@Colbe-lx7fb]

I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions

[@Will54rol]

I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.

[@TeresaMicheals]

Thanks for sharing your experience! I've been managing my portfolio myself, but it's not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help.

[@Will54rol]

My CFA, Joseph Nick Cahill, is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@Kattyol1]

Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored his website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon!

[@steventaylor6027]

Honey wake up, Sven posted his 8th video about bubbles and PE ratios for this month

[@CookingForAlba-qh8nq]

Maybe it should tell you something about his gut feeling considering his experience , academic achievements and research rather than to scoff at it.

[@steventaylor6027]

@ Even Sven says he doesn’t know if or when the “bubble” will ever pop. Sven has posted videos showing he has underperformed the market by 5-6% per year since 2018, which shows that just because the market is expensive, it doesn’t mean that it can’t get more expensive or that being in cash/value stocks is a good idea

[@mathewwilson9776]

@@steventaylor6027 Sven is thinking and assessing risk/rewards, while you are simply hoping for the best and hoping that things keep "getting more expensive". His 12-13% result over the past few years is something he would have achieved no matter what the market did, while SPY is simply bubbling up. If this bubble deflates, all this fake outperformance evaporates in an instant (while his hedge doubles). Investing is not linear.

[@mathewwilson9776]

@@steventaylor6027 I don't know what is so hard to understand. If you focus on finding 7-10% dividend yields from good underappreciated businesses and add some meager 3-5% growth, you are already at 10-15% return from the business alone. Let's say 12% on average. If you hold 5 such concentrated positions and one doubles every 5 years, that's already a 16% cagr. At a 15% cagr, you double every 5 years. In 40 years you double 8 times. 2^8=256. So every 10k becomes 2.5m. Who cares about the market?

[@dhidhi1000]

@@steventaylor6027 it only takes a few month’s recession to wipe away years of build up, be careful. If you’re fully invested, I would start selling as the market rises, to lower your risk.

[@jirojiro1029]

Imagine not buying all the growth stocks that went up 50%, 100% this year and staying on the sidelines waiting for a crash. The opportunity cost is massive and unforgivable. That said, it would be wise to take some profit now.

[@ashpatel2505]

The moral of the story is, not to listen to alarmists. Can markets go down? Yes, but one can’t invest with fear or greed! The key is to stay invested and not freak out and try to time the market.

[@CitizenOK]

Merry christmas sven.

[@PandionisDemosthenes]

You showing us that quadrant is amazing! Thank You and happy holidays!

[@BaileyMxX]

Haven't people been saying this for the past 15 years? Eventually they'll be right. But listening for the past decade youd have missed the five fold returns

[@mathewwilson9776]

The S&P500 returned 3x over the past 10 years, which is shy of a 12% cagr, a lot of it artificial and likely not repeatable (tax cuts, debt, Fed, multiple expansion to absurd levels). A good quality business trading at a low multiple, yielding 7% through dividends and buybacks, growing marginally at 5%, already gets you a 12% return, without involving any multiple expansion. If the multiple doubles from 7-10x to 15-20x over a decade, that's an additional 7% cagr, for a 20% total, regardless of what your goofy index does. If there is some more growth, even better. If one focuses on bulding a portfolio with a few of these over time, there is not much a goofy index can do to keep up. In a bubble it all seems very easy, but the last time the index traded at 30x earnings, it didn't return anything for 14 years. We will see how easy it is for the index fund crowd if history repeats itself, while actual investors continue investing.

[@greigsanderson]

Interesting jumper.

[@XPkoolXD]

"the stock market could go down" wow... Thanks...

[@hydranth]

Sretan Božić!

[@RobertS.Headrick]

Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning. How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage?

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

The inversion implies anticipated lower future growth, potentially resulting in decreased lending and investment. Hence, finding the appropriate asset allocation and collaborating with an advisor experienced in bear markets is imperative.

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

[@KimberlyO.Kitchens]

How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Stacy Lynn Staples turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.

[@CharlesT.Foster]

I just checked her out on google and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@AB-dn2bk]

Always great vidoes Sven!

[@YumJJJ]

You should break things down by sector for the S&P500 not just take the PE of the index. For example, tech stocks always traded at a higher PE multiple than other sectors. So when tech made up a smaller percentage of the index, the PE of the index was a lot lower. Due to the growth of tech, it now makes up a higher percentage of the index hence making the PE of the index higher. So it doesn't mean the index is "overvalued" bc it has a higher PE ratio than the historical average.

[@mathewwilson9776]

All that matters is the price that you are paying for today's earnings. The ratio doesn't care if it is tech or candy. Walmart or Costco are trading at equally idiotik multiples. The ONLY way for you to get a return from absurdly high multiples is sustained growth, sustained margins an sustained high multiples, be it tech or candy. So you are just making a triple bet: if either bet fails, you are doomed, which is what value investing seeks to avoid.

[@abemanzur6985]

We are definitely in the “New Paradigm”… people saying that we will never have a recession again are delusional

[@adamblackwell524]

This has to be the most disgusting bubble I've personally seen myself.

[@Hrx84]

I was sure that 2021 was peak. And after that 2022 start of bear market but 2023-2024 was completly strange.

[@ronaldmcdonald3965]

Yeah, I don't know where they are getting all the earnings from.

[@John-ww2fv]

The stock market is definitely picking up pace right now, but I still think investors should be careful at this time. I'm actually a newbie in this space, so I'm open to hearing other investors' take on this.

[@SeanJohns-ze8ie]

I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions.

[@ThomasColt]

I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.

[@RoseBalerus]

Thanks for sharing your experience! I've been managing my portfolio myself, but it's not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help.

[@ThomasColt]

@@RoseBalerus My CFA, JOSEPH NICK CAHILL, is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@RoseBalerus]

Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored her website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon!

[@alext1723]

Thanks Sven for the videos. I've got your book as a Xmas present, so hope to enjoy it in the next few days. A gift for me but an act of support for your work. Merry Christmas from Ireland. Nollaig Shona!

[@JohnDaniels]

Federal reserve lowering interest rates, check 3 month and 10-year just uninverted, check 2 year and 10-year just uninverted, check Yes we're heading into a recession or depression

[@MasonGardner-mv9du]

Merry Christmas!!

[@oisinmccormack4973]

Thank you for doing this man! KZbin money isn’t something that you need yet you still provide good information for people in the beginning stages of their investment journey. Much love brother! Thank you very much!

[@TheHaHaBar]

He donates the KZbin rev to charity.

[@emre10343]

1 last big run than big despair is coming

[@MarekPietraszczyk]

This time is different.

[@johnmcquaid7524]

Santa’s Elf is busy today.

[@ScootLogix]

Anyone who says this time is different has failed to learn from the lessons of the past.

[@mohamadsaleh779]

Even value stocks will crash with overvalued stocks. I'm keeping a good percentage of my portfolio in cash for such time even though I'm missing some opportunities on it.

[@spyderativ2438]

Merry Christmas 🤶

[@badshard09]

How do you think bond yields factor into this?

[@sebsefyu]

Sven, i liked that Wealthion segment you did with them few days ago. Would like to see more of those in future, especially after crash. lol. Thank you.

[@carlos557788]

The bears already have something called SPXS, how’s that working out for them?

[@Denment93]

Since a lot of awareness was created during the covid (2020/2021), I would say the bear trap happened 2022 (I tapped into that).Agreeing that we are in the mania phase but at an earlier stage.

[@nights312312]

"next" yes, but when? you always agree with the "not try to time the market" yet here you are trying, or no?

[@augustus331]

Sven be sure to celebrate Christmas with the family!! Otherwise I also keep watching finance videos instead of being with family ;)

[@ussul6524]

I like you channel for all the ideas you come up. IDK f it is good, but you make it convincing. Olny time will show us. But as investor... review mirrors do nothing for me.

[@heneliezer1421]

How invested are you in china sven? Its valuation is still so low

[@CC-gu8rg]

Prioritise risk management and capital preservation over short-term gains, particularly in times of perceived market overvaluation?

[@samwhite6231]

Don’t time the market. Value the market. It’s crazy overvalued now

[@barny1174]

How long can the bubble last? 4years or 10years?

[@parthisubramanian]

Until it burst.

[@Geraldine47383]

I keep struggling to make sense of the crypto market. I keep missing out on every major pump in the market. I've incurred more losses than profits! I've tried everything on these KZbin channels and still end up losing out on big market trends. Seems there's something I'm not doing right.

[@Damhefine0]

You’ve probably been doing it wrong and on your own. You should join a community to help you keep up. Sometimes, watching these videos alone won’t cut it.

[@Paulogonzza]

MAGA!!! Since Trump’s reemergence as POTUS, I’ve been able to make over $3M in profit.

[@Paulogonzza]

Market trends can be easy to follow, especially when you have someone or a few people to mentor you. I wouldn’t have made so much without the help of Beth Christine. Her methods have helped change my view of the market.

[@SchalMann]

Wow, didn't know a lot of people knew Miss Beth out here. She likes to keep a low profile.

[@BdhYd-w1e]

Miss Beth Christine. She helps me with trading. She's not perfect but her methods are effective and i barely record losses anymore.😌

[@coolconfuzer]

Read between thr lines....cafe in Budva. Going higher!

[@TechPeeves]

Sven, my friend and mentor, do you suggest we hold onto cash like the old man and wait for 50% down before buying? I know many bulls don't believe it but I believe you good teacher.

[@UraniumFever88]

the bubble is in megacaps. a ton of stocks are flat or down

[@deadairconversion]

Things are so much different now then say 15 to 20 years ago. Prior to the smartphone (and even the internet), things moved at a slower pace. Information is widely available and easily understood now. Investors react quicker and are more informed. This has changed the dynamic of the stock market. It’s a brand new world, where the past truly is not indicative of future performance. It’s even harder now to make accurate predictions concerning the evolving dynamics of the market

[@jayybird0096]

I just want to know when we’re all APE-ing into mining stocks.

[@HGLehnsdal]

i get that you are a great investor. I have been following you for years. What I do not get is why you always sound cynical, catastrophistic, and in general that you know everything and the rest of us are dumb or something.

[@ashpatel2505]

Just look at ten yeas history of the U.S. stock market and see how poorly value stocks have performed. I have been hearing experts who loves value stocks and have been warning us about the bubble! So investors can invest in value stocks at their own perils!

[@elvisthepelvis99]

Sven just accept that over the past two years, you've missed out on a 50% gain simply by not investing in an index fund that costs 0.05%. Meanwhile, you charge the equivalent of €1 million invested in that same index fund.

[@mathewwilson9776]

SPY has a 25% total return over 3 years, so under 8% cagr, around 10% cagr if you expand the window further. I get that from dividends and buybacks alone every year following Sven’s approach. And every now and then, a 30% special dividend here, a 3x on a concentrated Meta position there… Watch and learn.

[@elvisthepelvis99]

@@mathewwilson9776 You're three seconds away from creating a new KZbin channel to talk about how great you are, all the financial bubbles out there, and charging $1,000 a year to recommend companies

[@Arathreas]

Since Nvidia started selling off, you might want to move them a bit up in your graph and Tesla into the far left corner. Maybe so far into the left hand corner that they are barely visible xD PE ratio of far beyond 100,

[@davidfrankel9267]

The problem with this bubble is that AI's payoff is in the ether. No one knows when or if it will payoff. Even if it works, it sounds very deflationary long term but the amount of people it's employing and the productivity it's promising could go on for years. Tesla's FSD is already proof that supercomputing is getting the job done.... But long term. It will knock out Uber drivers... Deflationary bust.

[@JudeTheCoolGuy]

There is the melt up theory but I reckon it's mal production of cash and gdp with no rise and I think ther has to be growth so.ewhere

[@Sam-93]

Your quadrants need to be tweaked - Makes no sense to have the 'High' at the bottom and the 'Low' at the top - Should be reversed.

[@jurre9892]

To me it does actually. Low risks tops high risk. And therefore those stocks deserve a spot higher up in the quadrant. If the stockprice of the 'high risk' (or pricier) stocks come down, then the stock can climb up in the quadrant.

[@goodyearspokane]

Tom Lee says ‘No’

[@Amwatson801]

In Dec 2021 he also said no, like in any other day of every month of every year. Just a clown repeating what people want to hear.

[@goodyearspokane]

@ like Sven and the people that love what he says who want the “joint wrecked”

[@m4758406]

The S&P 500 is not THE MARKET. The market consists of approximately 50000 stocks ? Many of them have already crashed by over 50%. Even Netflix and Meta experienced brutal crashes two years ago. This is not a broad market crash but rather a wave-like pattern-this month, certain stocks drop sharply, next month, others, while some are already recovering. And U.S. bonds are not my market either. Why should I care about U.S. bonds? If I buy them, I face enormous currency risks. The 4.5% they offer is garbage-far too little for that currency risk. The U.S. accounts for only ~4% of the world's population. The bonds in my country yield around 2.5 to 3%. With stocks, I can get significantly better returns-even with just 5%. I can't compare myself to someone like Buffett. My taxes are also higher-when I sell stocks, I pay 27.5%, which is significantly more than Buffett. Merry Christmas Markus

[@Xesogo48]

2022 was a crash for tech stocks. All went 20%-40% down. AI era is at the beginning. Maybe you have to wait for 4-8 years before the next crash/bear run.

[@ianscherger6587]

Thanks Sven for all your videos! Great content and info! I have been buying long duration treasuries though despite your wise advice 😬 hope it pans out

[@koufax174]

🙏🏼

[@druvaciam5407]

Almost all stocks are historically cheap, energy, REITs, international stocks, bonds. What bubble are you talking about? Even BTC is below 100k🙂

[@idontnowachannelname]

I love your take but you don't take into account the tax loss selloff and we are still in good shape. yes I did divest to emerging markets and 10% on the sideline along with 20% bonds but I totaly get you and I don't care because it's a long term investment for 20 years. keep up the great work!

[@sebastianboettcher9724]

People would have missed out on massive gains if they had listened to you for too long. Be careful with your advise. One day a correction will come, but obviously you have no clue when.

[@2023gainer]

VHAI..up 7 % week.. Vocodia. SMCI up 5 % Tues . NVDA.. Nvidia green.. AMD rising...MU Dip.. NKLA.. Nikola dip. RIVN... Rivian Dip . LCID. Dip . ACHR Archer Evtol Jets flying higher. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.

[@ren1018]

Recession starts towards end of 2026

[@Serge888]

Before investing, people need to work in bussness or have some education. Or.......experience 😢

[@foresthill8462]

“Born in a communist country”? I thought you were Danish/Norwegian?

[@SchwuppSchwupp]

Jugoslawien

[@AaronCharles-oy5yi]

Glory!!! After so much struggles I now own a new house with an influx of $360,500.00 every month God has kept to his words,my family is happy again everything is finally falling into place. God bless America 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@FredrickRoy-k5h]

Hallelujah.God still works wonders. I place myself in position for such miracles and testimonies.

[@AaronCharles-oy5yi]

Chloe Allison has been so good to me and my entire family am forever grateful

[@LisaMedina-w7s]

Yeah Ms chloe Allison is a God sent,she is well known for her good personality and successful service here in Canada 🇨🇦..

[@AnnabelleChristopher-p5y]

Hello!! how do you make such monthly, am a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 😭 of myself because of low finance but I still believe God

[@martinRamosmendoza-w1q]

Who is this ms Chloé Allison??

[@Wowsers101]

BTC will drop down and won't do anything till come April

[@GIABO-x9g]

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[@HerMan-e4z]

The beauty of Jennifer Lorelle Roberts ’s approach is her dual focus: while she aggressively pursues profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.

[@sideefect666]

Literally Just Found her website easily it was like the first thing that came up when I searched on her name and also her mail address I will surely touch bases with her to see what's the best step for me to take rn. Thanks for sharing really do appreciate

[@celinhacelly]

I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives

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[@jonike007]

Knowing this woman has been the greatest thing that has ever happened to me, it turned my life story to a success story. God Bless Jennifer

[@AlexA-zg7mq]

First