Рет қаралды 347,158
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For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.
This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.
What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.
In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.
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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Readings and Sources:
Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles - CSIS 2020
missilethreat.csis.org/wp-con...
Featured Washington Post piece
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
CRS - Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs
sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020
irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm...
Guardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quote
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
CSIS - missile threat profile on Emad
missilethreat.csis.org/missil...
Tweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN
/ 1779269993043022053
RUSI - Iran's failed offensive against Israel
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
Reporting on Israeli strike on Iran
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4...
www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/...
www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/...
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
And Iranian warnings regarding it
en.irna.ir/news/85444320/Isra...
Included IRGC statement on limited systems being used
t.me/Tasnimnews/295267
Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” response
www.tehrantimes.com/news/4973...
Featured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issues
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.businessinsider.com/iran-...
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
www.timesofisrael.com/liveblo...
www.csis.org/analysis/iran-is...
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
theintercept.com/2024/04/15/i...
Reporting on types of Iranian missiles used
www.scmp.com/news/world/middl...
Denial of Dimona targeting
www.tehrantimes.com/news/4973...
en.irna.ir/news/85449489/IRGC...
Suleimani strike reporting (2020)
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Iran's 2020 missile strikes on US bases
www.theguardian.com/global/vi...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:00:55 - What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 - Caveats
00:03:50 - The Syria Strike
00:05:56 - The Attacks
00:21:19 - Purpose & Result
00:29:36 - Estimates & Costing
00:34:32 - Winners and Losers?
00:38:54 - Retaliation Options
00:50:55 - The Conflict Continuum
01:00:00 - What Now?
01:00:41 - Channel Update