Is China Changing How It Sees the World? | Foreign Affairs Interview Podcast

Foreign Affairs invites you to listen to its podcast, the Foreign Affairs Interview. This episode with Kevin Rudd was originally published on August 18, 2022.
With tensions running high over the Taiwan Strait, and with Chinese President Xi Jinping poised to secure an unprecedented third term in office at the next Chinese Communist Party Congress later this fall, understanding how China sees itself and its role on the global stage has never been more important to managing Washington’s relationship with Beijing-and to avoiding a catastrophic military escalation. What is Xi’s vision for China, and what role does ideology play in his ambitions for the country? How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shaped Beijing’s thinking on Taiwan? And what does Washington get wrong about China’s intentions to remake the world order?
Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, is unique among China watchers: he speaks fluent Mandarin and has personally interacted with Chinese leaders at the highest level. And for years, he’s been closely tracking the internal politics of the CCP and relations between the United States and China. In his latest book, The Avoidable War, Rudd argues that conflict between the two superpowers does not have to be inevitable.
We discuss Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei earlier this month, Xi’s shaping of Chinese ideology, and how he sees the world changing around him.
SOURCES FOR THIS EPISODE
“Rivals Within Reason?” by Kevin Rudd
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“Short of War” by Kevin Rudd
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“The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy” by Kevin Rudd
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“How Xi Jinping Views the World” by Kevin Rudd
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[@Patrick-bu5vy]

Rudd’s biggest strength is his knowledge of Chinese history and ideology. His biggest blind spot is his lack of knowledge of economics. Xi has the same blind spot. Neither of these men realise the essential source of China’s recent strength is trade with the West. There is nothing ‘inexorable’ about this continued rise - especially in the event of conflict over Taiwan. Western capital will flee China en masse, unemployment will skyrocket, and Xi will have a domestic revolution on his hands. There are plenty of nations ready and willing to take over as the manufacturing hub of the world - Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines. It is already happening. Xi and Rudd can pontificate on ideology all they like, but cold hard cash is what has driven China’s emergence toward Great Power status - and Xi is showing on a daily basis he has little understanding of how easily this could all reverse. The Chinese people will not forgive easily if Xi derails their hard fought prosperity.

[@zacharyreshovsky8279]

I heard him speak while studying in china. He was great

[@Erik-gg2vb]

Deterrence through strength is what the PRC understands. A weaker China or stronger US works, best to have both.

[@jim2376]

Ruud is a bright guy. He speaks Chinese and knows the culture and history. Formidable authority on China.

[@Present-Tense]

Pelosi visited Taiwan in August '22. Why the delay in uploading time-sensitive material?

[@davidjones6389]

Chinese rhetoric about invading the Republic of China, Taiwan, could not go unanswered, I feel the Speaker of the House's visit was the perfect moderate response. Adjusting a global response based on XI's enlighten moments to reality is probable at best. Setting boundaries is the direct deterrent.

[@canuckbucks]

Mr. Rudd's intellect is obviously a development of intense curiosity and deep, meaningful, personal relationships. How f&^%g refreshing is that, eh?

[@christerheljestrand4949]

This guy has some knowledge of China...

[@charlesweinberg9511]

Xi is from Mongolia! He is a Khan.