Is La Nina Weakening and Fall Developing?

[@VincentM_01]

Here is a long overdue support for the cause!

[@Stormsurf001]

Vincent - Thank you so much! I really appreciate your contribution. Thanks!

[@coachnate1]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Coach - thanks so much for your contribution! Now all we need is some surf! haha.

[@timkasten343]

Thanks Mark!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Tim - Thanks again for all your contributions! I really appreciate it.

[@mattbgraves]

Thanks Mark! Excited for the new feature!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Matt - thanks so much for your contribution! And I'm stoked to provide some new content on the site for everyone. Hope you find it useful.

[@evolutionmoto]

Let’s see if the MJO wakes up big like it did in 2022/2023 and drives this back into El Niño with a PDO switch 2025/2026;). I can feel it in my bones! The pdo switch is coming :).

[@MrWarrenRetro]

El Nino is also 2026/27, and La Nina in 2029/2030

[@Stormsurf001]

I soo hope you are right! We are due! I think the next 2 weeks are key. If the easterly anomalies develop weaker than forecast, we might then be getting close. Finger Crossed. And thanks again for all your contributions!

[@mxb5346]

🔴Pacific Beach SD was 3-5ft Friday and one of the best swells of the Summer ! But turned way to mixed directional Saturday. Love your show. ✌️

[@droneshots6192]

I was at ocean beach, almost near the jetty on Friday. I wouldn’t say best swell of the summer but ya it was the best in a while. Or was pacific beach really that good on Friday?

[@mxb5346]

@@droneshots6192 I'm on 31 consecutive days of surfing and counting...it was that good ! ✌️

[@Stormsurf001]

Thanks so much for tuning in MXB. And thanks for the report. You all scored! There's wasn't much up here. I really need some good surf.

[@sponsler]

A lot of time, hard work and knowledge (accumulated) goes into your videos, Mark!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Steve - Thanks for watching! I learned everything I know for you! You are the true master of meteorology!

[@Bangbangthatdrum]

Sweet new wave models, thanks as always!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Bang Bang - Thanks so much. I'm pretty stoked on the color scheme. I just need to work out a few small details still.

[@MrWarrenRetro]

The 2005/06 was rain average season for (2019-2020) then a drought was developed in Southern California for at the end of 2006 (2020)

[@rpstoval2328]

Hello! Thank you for your interesting vids. I love them. I have a question about the data sets if you don't mind. Are the temperatures (the ones that decide whether on La Nina or not, the ones that are 0.5 degrees above or below), are they relational or a measurement of actual sea temperature please? The reason I am asking is I just saw a Pacific Island forum where they are talking about the rising temperature of the Pacific in general. If the whole ocean is warming, does it suggest that the 0.5 below might not be accurate anymore? We're still seeing a La Nina but the whole ocean is warmer and so this scale doesn't reflect it anymore. I hope I'm making sense! Thanks again and I hope you have a great week.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi RP - Great question. The determination of El Nino/La Nina is based on sea surface temp anomalies for a 3 month period for 5 3-month periods in a row over the Nino 3.4 region which runs from 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 120W to 170W. And the sst anomaly value, the deviation from nomal is based on a constantly updated baseline every 5 years. So what was normal 5 years ago is actually a little bit negative in today's world. And what is normal today would be almost El Nino 40 years ago. So today's La Nina temps take into account a warming planet, which I think is really the focus of your question.

[@rpstoval2328]

@@Stormsurf001 Thank you so much for your reply. I found the Pacific conference very interesting in regards to warming Pacific temperatures. I'm glad to know they are taken into account for these measurements. Although, as an Australian lychee farmer, I have to admit that I'm a fan of La Nina, so we are on opposite teams. Every time you say bad news I hear good news haha. Thanks so much for your channel. It is one of my favourites. Always great to see your cheery face.

[@GotSurf]

Always great videos...just wish the website would update this century so we can navigate it with ease.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Low tide - Yeah- the site is definitely dated. It would only take me about 2 years of work to refresh it all. So that probably isn't gonna happen anytime soon. but the content is all good and works.

[@coachnate1]

Thanks Mark great report as always🤙🏽Hopefully some windswell down here in the middle Monterey bay this week

[@Stormsurf001]

I have my fingers crossed for you!

[@eugorov13]

Thank you Mark! With the Sierras getting their first snow recently (6/24) and my local getting its first morning offshores the day after, I feel like fall is definitely on its way in!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Eugorov - Yeah, it seems like we're definitely getting close. Cant wait. Bring on the snow and surf!

[@jakemarlow8998]

You have transformed your models into super models ... they are gorgeous! I also noticed the bitchin hi-res buoy dashboards that you added. I'd like to suggest that you mention new products and upgrades in your videos. It's too easy to miss them. Hoping for no La Nina and an early start to a kick-ass autumn. Thanks for another awesome video.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Jake - Yeah at some point I probably just need to do a video explaining all the different parts of the web site. There's so much content its likely overwhelming for most people. All I need is time....

[@jakemarlow8998]

@@Stormsurf001 Well, if the MJO continues to stay inactive like the models suggest, you might have all the time you need!

[@jakemarlow8998]

@@Stormsurf001 Forgot to mention ... I clicked onto the two really old wave models that are linked in the far-right column. You've come a long way! Thanks for all that hard work.

[@Stormsurf001]

​@jakemarlow8998 Yeah - a few years ago I started messing around with a new color scheme and larger format cause I was doing a few film project where the producers wanted wave models that filled the screen. All those projects have dried up. But with youtube I now have a use from them! Glad you enjoy.

[@GraemeCoopland-er2cm]

There just seems to be a lot of warm water around now a days, than ever before. In which may just keep pushing the La Nina patter away.

[@Stormsurf001]

@@GraemeCoopland-er2cm I'm hopeful that's exactly how it turns out. Fingers crossed!

[@guitarpornguy4687]

I wonder what our chances of having a neutral winter is 🤔 I know the neutral phases always brings storms to my neck of the woods. Maybe some snow?!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi GuitarGuy - I think we'll get a much better sense of what this Winter will be like in the next 2-3 weeks. I'd be perfectly fine with neutral. Fingers crossed.

[@bones8057]

Thanks Mark. Wow, sure glad we hit it hard during the beginning of summer

[@jaym8257]

How about two years of ENSO neutral? Over here in Texas they say La Nina portends dry weather. What about normal rains for California and normal rains for Texas the next year or two?

[@Stormsurf001]

I'd take that for sure. I'm thinking 85% of normal for CA at this moment of time. But lets see what happens over the next few weeks. We'll know alot more then.

[@GuapLord5000]

Certainly feels like we’re getting an early start to fall. Winds have been good. Now if only we could get some southern hemis.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi GuapLord - Yes, please bring us some more southern hemi surf, pleeeeease! haha

[@user-bi7nq4nj7q]

lol that heat blod killed a bunch of ice

[@Stormsurf001]

Oh yeah, I was gonna say (but forgot during the video) that if you watch the hindcasts animations for the southern oceans, you can literally watch the ice moving. Ice extent is updated every few days.

[@Iowa-dy2mi]

Thank you mark for great report hopefully south sd will be alive soon with better angles and winds 🙏

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Iowa! Hope you're doing well. Thanks for the props. Yeah - we're all dying for surf now.

[@PavelDatsyuk-ui4qv]

I dunno , that intro was pretty hype

[@Stormsurf001]

Too much hype?? It is kinda fun to have a good headline. And a good exercise for me to try and think of one every week.

[@PavelDatsyuk-ui4qv]

@@Stormsurf001that's my bad! I hate text sometimes . I thought it was really good! Made me laugh. Was more or less a cheesey joke

[@Stormsurf001]

Oh I get it! Funny!!! I like it.

[@Spagine]

There might even be a chance that California gets a 3rd wet winter in a row for 2024-2025

[@richardpeterson8117]

🤞🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

[@MrWarrenRetro]

There might be lean precipitation on La Nina in California for 2029/30, just like one in 2005/06 And 2029 Atlantic hurricane season will be hyperactive, like 29-30 named storms, 15-14 hurricanes and 7 majors, like we did in 2005 and end of Jan 2006, for 2030

[@Stormsurf001]

I sure hope for. That would be awesome!

[@MrWarrenRetro]

Moderate el Nino of 2026/27, just like one in 2002-03 We had rain picked up in November and December 2026, and January 2027 was warm and dry, no rain, just like Jan 2003, then February to April, May picked up rain in 2027

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Warren - I'm holding you to it!! El Nino 2026-27. That would be sweet!

[@moomooclark7987]

la nina get to work the caribbean wants west swell

[@Stormsurf001]

Yeah - I'd have thought the Atlantic and Caribbean would be real active by now. MJO not helping, but come mid Sept...watch out!

[@edanderson8274]

Biggest dropoff into La Nina in history

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Ed - I hope it turns into the biggest La Nina false alarm in history! haha.

[@KenAntell-xu9yo]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Ken - thanks so much for your contribution! It is very much appreciated.