Is Putin Actually Popular in Russia?

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Public opinion polls in Russia suggest that Vladimir Putin's popularity as high as 81.6%. But Putin is an autocrat, and Russian citizens may be reluctant to voice disapproval for his regime. Can we trust that the polling figures are anywhere close to the truth?
Political scientists have a solution to this kind of problem: the list experiment. It allows pollsters to infer support for a leader without asking directly about the leader. This results of list experiments in Russia are striking: true support appears to be only slightly smaller than what the standard polls indicate. Russians (probably) like Putin.
0:00 Putin's Poll Numbers in Russia
1:04 Preference Falsification
2:33 What Is a List Experiment?
4:44 List Experiment on Putin
6:04 More Preference Falsification in 2022?
6:56 Incentives to Lie in List Experiments
7:48 Framing Problems
8:42 Respondent Fatigue
10:00 An Updated Experiment
11:09 Putin Is (Probably) Still Popular
For the original academic article on the polls, see here: scottgehlbach.net/wp-content/...
There is also a blog post that summarizes the results and updates them for 2021: www.ponarseurasia.org/is-puti...
Photos licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From Raimond Spekking
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From Kremlin.ru
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From duma.gov.ru
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Photos licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
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From John Matthew Smith
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[@skribblyscramiento539]

Nfkrz, a Russian KZbinr with a Western audience with over a million subscribers, was actually talking about this. He's from the city and region of Chelybansk. His mom works in a tractor factory and is forced to to go these types of events. He's now in Tbilisi, Georgia because of financial issues due to the sanctions.

[@occamschainsaw3450]

The thing that missed from such an analysis is that the popular opinion in Russia is kind of irrelevant, but not in the way that you'd think. You have to consider that outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg (which is most of the country, area and population wise) people still basically live in a Soviet Union. Out of 85 administrative regions of Russia 72 are running budget deficit and depend on the money coming from Moscow, with the majority of people there working in the government job. They are not going to denounce the government, not because they will be thrown in jail, which is a factor obviously, but just because it is unwise to bite the hand that feeds you. So, all of this regions, and all this population, will have whatever position the Kremlin will have, they tow the line or they starve. If tomorrow there will be a coup and a new government will say "Putin sucks" - that would be the new opinion of 80% of the population.

[@adelinomartins5761]

I agree with Occmms Chainsaw. I think that for Putin life of their people has no valor. Of he defender his people don't oblieged to go to the dead on Ucraine. My Simple idea is that 50 per cent of Rússia people survivor nearbay the miser.

[@ImpreccablePony]

Well you could say that but the more important factor is that Putin's fate will be decided by citizens of Moscow and Petersburg so whatever happens outside of these 2 giants is kind of irrelevant.

[@mohammadpourheydarian5877]

The 'List Experiment" technique was new to me. Equally interesting point was the fatigue effect of a survey. Many times I stopped at the middle of answering a survey because it would take me too much time to answer the questions. The smart A.. survey designer who wanted to get the most of me actually got zero.

[@lunakoala5053]

Well, getting zero is still better than getting misleading infos, no?

[@jasourwnjl]

According to one of the young Russian Vloggers on KZbin older, less educated Russians who rely on TV for information tend to support Putin and the war. But support is lower among educated younger Russians with a more diverse media diet. Of course it's going to be hard to explain away increasing numbers of dead Russian soldiers to parents and spouses as the war drags on.

[@sofiaormbustad7467]

Yes, but most soldiers dying are not ethnic russians, but from poor republics with a large native majority like Dagestan. Though those parents would also be angered by their loss, they sadly have much less political impact than ethnic russians in Moscow or St.Petersburg

[@jasourwnjl]

@@sofiaormbustad7467 I had heard rumors to that effect. It makes sense for them to have the casualties coming from areas away from the power centers. Putin is such an evil bastard.

[@jont2576]

So both of them are equally brainwashed as the other?one by state TV,the other by the mostly pro western western media propaganda. Although Putin's propaganda is probably more crude and extreme......the western media propaganda is still propaganda,by trying to paint geopolitical events in a certain way......portraying their enemies in a harsher tone while simultaneously downplaying or whitewashing or simply hiding their own transgression whatsoever. Obviously younger folks are going to be more sympathetic to the victims of war and the humanitarian aspects but it doesn't make them any less ignorant or ignoramus to the geopolitical reasons and the history behind it.....and the media is shameless for trying to exploit the humanitarian aspects of the Ukraine war and being as melodramatic as possible to push their own agenda......of course it's natural for the west to fight for its own agenda.its natural for people to see things from their side their own perspective and to see themselves as the good guys despite all of their history's transgression and hypocrisy. But those who know history who is enlightened knows the true monster the real danger and threat isn't the USSR,isn't the middle East,isn't China,isn't south America.....it's the west and the decades of oppression from their military and economic might,from their trumped up charges and their rhetoric and false narratives and their "claims" and their attempts to make everyone look like clowns, to construe everyone as monsters while using their economic and military might to crush and destabilise or destroy anyone that might pose a threat or challenge to the American and western hegemony!!!!!while garnering the approval It is the west that made enemies of all of us......of the South American countries,of the Asian countries,of the middle East,of the countries that wanted to be communist......

[@blizzi8428]

Russia was already experiencing massive brain-drain, even before the war. This problem is bound to become even more severe in the future. However this means that the people actually willing to throw putin out are leaving the country, with supporters or politically weak minorities staying.

[@yannikontzias3601]

you would be surprised to howe many young educated russians I Have met who support Putin due to nationalist rhetoric and them having an inferiority complex with the west( which is true to an extent since no great attempts were ever made in the 90s to fully integrate russia into western markets). I don't think its as simple as categorizing it into educated and non educated.

[@tikaanipippin]

Depends if "Ethnic Russians" only are being asked. If certain areas in the Federation, such as Siberia, where drafted army individuals are only reported missing, and not KIA, and no compensation is being given to families with likely dead soldiers in Ukraine, people are not going to give an honest response out of fear.

[@Astuar]

Something we must remember that question of ethnicity is very often secondary in Russia. And in some way even irrelevant. As in US you are American no matter of your ethnicity, though sometimes it can be brought up depending on circumstances. Also it it is deferent from region to region. Additionally you can say "Я россиянин" or "Я русский", which is translated the same as "I'm russian". Though first one means citizen of a state and second one points at ethnicity.

[@Rigel_6]

@@Astuar Thing is, historically Moscovites (the ethnic "proper" Russians") always used the other ethnicities as cannon fodder and cheap labour, essentially 2nd class citizens

[@kellychamberlain6093]

@@Rigel_6 Kind of like Kamala Harris with Californians.

[@YannR34]

@@kellychamberlain6093 Is that a smell of trump? Or putin maybe? Both are very strong smell and it's hard to define.

[@jacksonteller1337]

In most fascist states that kind of second rate citizens are common place. Look at the Chinese the Han Chinese are the only ones that matter to the leadership. They are commenting genocide on the Uyghurs, Tibetans and ever increasing on Hong Kong Chinese.

[@alex_zetsu]

I've had some liberal minded people in Russia in 2015 telling me how grateful they are to Putin... because the hyperinflation before him was so bad that every fault of his could be excused as long as the only people who suffer from him were political critics and not those who minded their own lives. I wonder what they feel now. But to be honest, most of the worst US presidents I'd support if the other guy would make USA like Zimbawe.

[@youdontneedtoknowwhoiam9612]

Still feel the same, the day Putin retires will be a sad day hope he stays for 20 years more(As long as he stays coherent and not like Biden)

[@alex_zetsu]

@@youdontneedtoknowwhoiam9612 The ruble might have stabilized for now, but I suspect within 3 years the bite of Western Sanctions will put hyperinflation of Russia worse than Russia in the late 90s. Still, even in my predictions which are pessimistic to Russia's economy, they probably won't end up as bad as Yugoslavia of 1994, Hungary of the post WW2 period, or Venezeulaof the 2010s and 2020s. No matter how much your economy implodes (from internal mistakes, an economic bubble, or a natural disaster), or is harmed from the outside (by someone blowing up your power plants or maybe cutting off critical imports), the only way to be as bad as those three is if you deliberately print money.

[@GMarat-iu2dj]

same old song, since 2014 when with first sanctions it was promised that russian's economy would be destroyed in several years... That didn't happen and that won't happen. Nowadays the most important thing are carburants. You might be very industrialized and developped but without energy that means litterally nothing. And wow, Russia seems to be one the most rich country in this way. Dollar is still strong enough because it secured by petrolium trade all over the world. (with the start of trading in national currencies dollars will depreciate). Just look at euro exchange rate (which was guaranteed be european industry and producing goods, and now it is crysis of production), euro is falling and it is almost equal to dollar now. So it a race to attrition, and financial occident will be suffering immeasurably more than Russia. Make a screenshot.

[@runs_through_the_forest]

@@youdontneedtoknowwhoiam9612 so you don't mind the killing of fellow slavs, erasing cities from the map as long as your life is ok and your not sinking into poverty. i'm belgian, i live next to the border with the netherlands, we share a very similar language and we are neighbors, if my prime minister says he doesn't mind bombing amsterdam and rotterdam into dust cause he wants the old days back and oh he lies and says there nazi's and there's a conspiracy of a bunch of countries who are now again your enemies, without any real evidence to back his claim and these same countries have been a reliable trade partner for the past 3 decades buying trillions worth of gas n oil, so they actually did all they could in their power to support the people through channeling vast amounts of wealth, which of course mostly go directly to the 3 decades long prime minister with some leftovers for the rest of the country, this same guy fails to invest in education or any form of positive feedback loop one can think of to make the whole of society thrive. and you want that turd of a lying manipulating psychopath to keep on doing the same thing for another 2 decades, you make me sick. and that's why it's the ugly truth that all russian people are part of the problem, i would never allow my government to bomb cities where there might live family members or friends, this is exactly the same kind of helplessness which made the holodomor happen, did you not hear Vladimir Vladimirovich his speech blaming others for his CHOICE of war, making threats that the ukrainian people will suffer to the last of them? did you see how everybody there in the duma was ashamed like a beaten dog silent looking at the floor, listening to his blatant lies? you the people need to stop this now.

[@sturgeon.vibess4354]

Yeah thats exactly why we support putin, not because he is that good although he is somewhat good in my opinion, but because he is the best that we have. No comparison with liberals like yeltsin, nemtsov or navalny. And yeah, also not so many people are liberal minded here so your friends aren't a 100 % reliable indicator

[@loki76]

You cannot look at Russia the same way as the West. Russians have only lived under Soviet Russia and then Boris Yeltsin and Putin. They are used to just "one man, strong leader" type deal. Not Democracy and choices. As long as the "king" does most of the things right and it's "better" than Soviet Russia, it's pretty low bar to contend with. But it's also clear that a lot of people in Russia are kind of isolated in regards to the world and news, except younger people. The older watch state media. We see more different voices among the young. But even then, there is still a lot of support for Putin. Under Putin Russia has become a lot more prosperous than all previous times. So like I said, they can only look back at times with Soviet Russia or Yeltsin. No matter what you think, no matter how much him and the Oligarchs stole, it's still better standard of living for them. I guess.

[@righthandstep5]

Absolute lies. They're obliviously unaware as to how sucky their lives are.

[@le_draffar5370]

@Cloud9 Tell that to the thousand migrants from Africa and the Middle East who migrate to Europe. Prosperity is the number one primordial basis of a people otherwise it is anarchy and chaos.The average Chinese would rather live in a wealthy country than in a democratic shithol.

[@linkly9272]

​@Cloud9 yep. there's a reason why the majority of Chinese students studying in the US decided to stay in the US (at least before COVID forced many of them home). you don't know what kind of life you are truly living until you see the lives of others.

[@frodehorgen2519]

after talking to a few Russians that worked close to were I live (Scandinavia) long before the war, they could not praise him enough. Russians are not dumb people, but they have a fully different outlook on the world and their own country then we inn the west have for many different reasons. So I believe he is as popular as the poll says, after being surprised about what the Russians told me about him and their opinions of him.

[@i-am-art]

State polls certainly have inflated numbers, and this video has some good points on the issue of polling in general. State's involvement on public opinion with extensive propaganda is what makes up such results in your example. As well as getting a reliable information is pretty challenging for an average observer. Currently, support stands somewhere close to 50/50 line. Support for war (or "special military operation" as Russia puts it) is mixed among residents and is blown by the state; while public stance against is persecuted.

[@nationalsound7181]

They are not living in Russia. That says enough about their opinion on Putin and his politics.

[@loneranger4282]

@@nationalsound7181 You are note Russian, you don't live in it, you don't have relatives there, you only see the world through the lens of a Westerner, not as a Russian. You clearly are more educated to give an opinion.

[@nationalsound7181]

@@loneranger4282 there is just one minor issue. Я русский.

[@loneranger4282]

@@nationalsound7181 I am Elon Musk's Brother

[@PunmasterSTP]

Those were some incredible insights, and I'm really glad that your channel is commenting on these current events. Hopefully this information can be both entertaining and helpful in some way...

[@katarishigusimokirochepona6611]

I find the list experiment ingenious but unconvincing…

[@Gametheory101]

That is often how I feel about them too, haha.

[@SpectralonWhite]

Great video, keep them coming.

[@macanaeh]

As someone who lives in Russia, I'm yet to meet someone who would openly admit to me to not support Putin, even when I put myself out there and openly state that I support Ukraine. Usually when I do admit it, people just look at me in utter shock and the conversation doesn't go too far after. I feel like it's became worse since the start of the war, back in spring 2022 I remember having lots more people around who were openly against the war. I guess they either left or got imprisoned since

[@CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY]

Suffice to say...it is going down. Slowly but surely.

[@jpablo700]

Allow free speech, protests and open elections; then let's see Putin's performance.

[@wideawake3026]

U gotta be a little puppet for the west 😳 🤣 😂

[@minniemi9170]

Let's see free speech, uncensored protests, and OPEN elections where ALL ballots are counted, no election fraud is committed, AND we get legitimate candidates that work for the people and NOT lobbyists or the shadow government in the west and let's see Biden and others real support.

[@Hand-in-Shot_Productions]

That will _probably_ hurt Putin's ratings!

[@raimobrunning3657]

Putin won't last a weekend.

[@gregfam6250]

I think the approval rating is whatever will keep someone alive.

[@Methalec1985]

I LOVE that you included Norway as one of the "Major Economic Powers"! We're not even part of the G20 but still! Thank you very much!

[@mindbomb9341]

I lived in Moscow for 6 years from 2014 to 2020. I went on almost 100 Tinder dates and was called by some the "King of Networking" in the business realm among expats there. After countless discussions with real Russians, it was clear to me Putin's election victories were not far-fetched.

[@nathanbanks2354]

One of the things Garry Kasparov complained about is how hard it is for any opposition to get on the ballot. He couldn't do it back in 2007 because people would intimidate the venues he was renting to jump through one of the hoops that required 500 people in one place. If an extremely famous/popular person couldn't do it then, what hope is there for other politicians now? (I've never lived in Russia; to verify, search for Kasparov.)

[@mrt1957]

King of blowing wind up your own skirt. I bet you think American Presidents are elected by the people as well and not the SuperPac CCPUSA mafia.

[@user-te7rf8ik7z]

They weren't genuine either, don't forget

[@kolinmartz]

Weird flex but okay. I really didn’t see how that first half was relevant at all.

[@kirillholt2329]

Repressions have skyrocketed after 2012, 10 years ago things were much more lax, I don't know anyone in my age group who "supports" him, most are either neutral or hostile to his presidency. I'm not going to share my opinion.

[@jesusislord5522]

Why are you worried about Putin's poll numbers? Are you Russian? Tell us about Biden's, Bojo, Macron, Olof etc. Western press committed suicide years ago.

[@pugdad2555]

Lol, you are not American then. The media has never been truthful. It has always been used for propoganda, just like Russia's and China's 🤣😂🤣😂 Except our government had to be extra careful about getting rid of dissenters (unless they weren't the right kind of vvhite or they did not self-identify as vvhite)

[@commando0749]

Sooner or latter, Russia is going to need new reforms across the country

[@petra1201]

Very interesting! Thank you!

[@Scottie404]

There is a Channel on KZbin that interviews average folks on the street in Russia - I won't mention the name as I think the owner is risking a lot already. A few Russians (mostly older folks) say they support Putin but the majority either say that they are afraid to say what they think, or say that they would prefer someone else.

[@detskalldaltas133]

If you not like the Government in Sweden u be banned on yt! You must love "refudgees" from Middeleast and Africa and like Pride! If not u lost the work and ppl can't pay the loan! This "refudgees" is the voters on the Socialdemocrats! We taxpayer have the highest taxes in the world 70%! We are on top in every crimes! Lowest pension in EU but we pay most after Germany to the EU! The Globalists! SWEXIT and home with the klanhyenas!

[@seandelaney1700]

If it matters to them, I'm sure they could figure it out, as you have left us to do.

[@mshin291]

Independent street interviews are so often wrong and also way easier to falsify compared to surveys and researches. Also, you always have to consider the opinion differences between the urban/rural population. Putin's regime is definately doing better than what we expected. Denying it does not help in anyway.

[@sateentuoksu]

PS. 102 % of the votes in some regions is quite much 😁 - even if there's no opponent - as they've all been killed or prisoned (and yes, putler got that in some presidential election)

[@wideawake3026]

Hmmm you should be saying thank God for Mr PUTIN bringing Russia back to a world power that the rest of the world can be safe from a western US dominance, you gotta be a lapdog of the west 👍🏽 😀 😉

[@leehessey1154]

Putler that's funny 😄

[@kingpest13]

Dude, very good analysis.

[@kenneth523]

Hitler and goebel was also popular until the last year of the war.

[@Matthew-Anthony]

1:59 Why does he not post the percentages on that bar graph?

[@jb03hf]

Here is how you gage if sanctions are enough on a country which you are in an existent war with - if you see any economic movement which you control and will not damage your own economy disproportionately - you haven't enough sanctions. Why would you at this point not use a "weapon" which you can wield to have an effect. It is irrational when there is a full on conflict where the opposition will not negotiate in good faith.

[@dennissmith7303]

I do not know anything about ”Game Theary” but you show me a nee way to look at things!!!👍👍

[@Robert399]

Implicitly revealing your preferences isn't only a problem if you say 0. That's the only way the interviewer can be *sure* you dislike Putin but it's still _more likely_ you dislike Putin if you say 1/4 than if you say 3/4. So I think answers would be biased upwards at all levels.

[@edosupra14]

Fear is different than popularity

[@muyaohang4375]

Hi Prof Spaniel, this video is quite interesting, hope there will be more videos about research methods.

[@Gametheory101]

I’m not sure when I will do another one like this, but I have the full classes that I teach IRL as playlists on my channel page (e.g., game theory 101, international relations 101).

[@theprofessionalfence-sitter]

Another way would be the following: instead of asking someone directly whether they support Putin, ask them to toss a coin (without showing) - if it's heads, they should say whether or not they support Putin and, if it's tails, they should always answer with no. That way, people can voice their disapproval of Putin and blame it on the coin.

[@HeJurm]

Is there any research on something like this?

[@pawne7033]

It seems extremly smart

[@muppen921]

Any ideas if this have been discussed??

[@HeJurm]

If they are afraid of the government, they could still answer "yes" in any case, even in case of tails, to not risk their lives. How would you know if they would do that?

[@vapeymcvape5000]

Wow, this is staggeringly stupid.

[@cuddycabinrestorationproje9155]

precisely

[@shk439]

I can say that that not only Putin has widespread and overwhelming support in Russia but also huge support of the Russian irridenta in Post-Soviet states

[@manickn6819]

And a lot more outside those circles too. Lots of people just fed up of US bullying. They will support anyone with balls to take them on.

[@durianjaykin3576]

@@manickn6819 might as well support China, has a bigger chance than compared with Russia

[@manickn6819]

@@durianjaykin3576 they do but they are passive right now. China has expansionist tendencies though so they can be a problem when they get bigger.

[@teroxstep]

​@@manickn6819 The man with the balls doesn't need a super long tabble for meeting with his own ministers

[@manickn6819]

@@teroxstep the long table is funny for sure. Azov was supposedly volunteers who signed up for this. No pity. If they were conscripts then maybe I can understand.

[@jimbob-robob]

@4:30 The math eludes me as to why 0.53=53% support for Putin when 100%=2.35 in the 4 choices list... 0.53 is a difference in ratio not percentage surely? He's not explaining the process fully IMO...help?

[@Shadow-1949]

I like your comments . Makes a person think

[@ThePoushal]

Yes he is.

[@brianjosephart9269]

I'm sure someone will find fault in my methodology... I directly surveyed 1,000 Russians on twitter and got the following: 411 refused to reply to direct question regarding Putin 397 approved of Putin's performance since the war 192 disapproved I used a separate account to soft interview 100 of the 411 who refused to comment. 33 still refused to comment 27 supported Putin 40 expressed concerns

[@Techmorus]

I'm a Russian that moved from a western country back to Russia and learns in a way different school I can say that the children and all of my classmates from 7-16 are mostly pro war just believing what the news say which is to be expected. But adults (mostly young adults and women) are more sympathetic to the people in Ukraine because of relatives there and more access to media. But they still don't like to fully show their opinions in fear of the government's oppression. Pro Russians base there political stances on "what Putin said" and dismiss or have no way to see the other side of the argument. it's basically impossible to start any talk with them they just keep denying any argument.

[@barryrammer7906]

I believe you 100% he is very popular in Russia. To be expected in a war proganda from both sides. Sad we had a chance to be economic travel friends instead of enemies. Sad for the whole world. I even bought a music instrument from Russia before the war on an e site. I grew up in the Cold War was so happy we could actually be friends and allies. Now it gone to hell. God bless you and your family. No one in the West hates the Russian people that I know of. Just a politician not liked in the west. Sorry I hope this ends well for all of us. Take care watch the rye in the sky there.

[@markmaki4460]

I am convicted that one goal of the war, if not the major goal, is to dispose of those relatives and friends in Ukraine so they are no longer sources of positive sentiment for Russians. Disposal of these people includes killing, deporting, and compelling to flee.

[@kirillholt2329]

@@barryrammer7906 he is not "very popular" I can assure you that, most Putin supporters are boomers with government pensions, most people have checked out mentally and are neutral towards politics.

[@matrixfull]

there are some russian youtubers who speak english who are giving impression that hey it's not like majority of Russian support Putin all that much , they are just too scared to show what they really feel...and I don't know if they really believe that or they are fishing for donations : x

[@barryrammer7906]

@@matrixfull there scared and rightfully so. Remember those young male u tubers might end up in Ukraine. So they know it's no special operation. I truly believe if Russia was attacked first they be there to help out there nation. Mr.P is very popular there. He has no exit strategy to get out of there now. As long as he's in power it's full steam a head. He's a typical sociopath and narcissist. It's all a repeating pattern of shitler palin and others. They either win at all cost or fail at all cost.

[@matejkleni6295]

I am quite good at statistics, but, as others, also fail to see why the difference of 0.53 is 53% support. I mean the difference could also be 1.5 or -0.4. Then what?

[@neurofiedyamato8763]

Yea he didn't really explain that part either and am quite curious

[@Delfigamer1]

We presume that the fractions of people that support each of the options is the same in both cohorts. So the expectation value for the first list ends up E1=p(A)+p(B)+p(C), and for the second one E2=p(A)+p(B)+p(C)+p(D), with p-probabilities being the same in both expressions. Thus, we can then deduce p(D)=E2-E1.

[@matthewtymczyszyn8948]

It would be better to ask “Which of X’s policies do you approve of?” or “Did you like punk music in the 80s?“ Like how Hamlet criticized the state paranoia of Elizabethan England, but wouldn’t come right out and say it.

[@BeedrillYanyan]

I would guess the answers would be hard to quantify.

[@this_time_imperfect]

In Soviet Russia, data poles you.

[@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo]

Conjecture.

[@MeechGotGuns]

Dude I love your videos, keep it up man

[@kellychamberlain6093]

Nice picture of Trudeau at 9:01

[@Arcaryon]

I am more honestly more interested in his approval among people in power compared to their fear than of the ordinary Russian citizens who have little to no opportunity / incentive to inform themselves unless they are politically interested.

[@andreimoutchkine5163]

You have no opportunity to inform yourself

[@Arcaryon]

@@andreimoutchkine5163 I severely doubt that you are even remotely qualified to make this statement.

[@andreimoutchkine5163]

@@Arcaryon I am an informed Russian. What makes you qualified to judge about us?

[@Arcaryon]

@@andreimoutchkine5163 "the ordinary Russian citizen" I wasn't talking about exceptions. I am talking about the common people. Folks who almost exclusively watch or read national news, who may not speak multiple languages, can't or do not want to afford themselves the luxury of spending a significant time or even money to inform themselves. I am in my own right "not part of the norm". Not generally, I am mostly perfectly average but my political interest and understanding as a result of studying both history and modern politics, is significantly higher than that of people who don't read many or even any news, certainly no scientific reports, rarely venture into different languages when looking for new opinions. I am not exactly judging you in particular, I am not even judging Russia as a country, I am merely judging the average human nature and also the average human condition in increasingly autocratic societies. So what makes me qualified to judge humanity? Being able to read and communicate and my inner... For a lack of a better word, drive or perhaps hunger to do these things frequently. Knowledge to me is not merely a tool, knowledge is a desire. Not for everything but I afford a great number of hours every day to research and question, to confirm or deny any suspicions I may have - in short, I may have been wrong about you as an individual but I am not some firm critic of Russia, not someone who never learned about its history, its troubles and successes, in fact, I love a lot about Russia, both in a classically romantic and in an austere manner. I doubted that this war would come to pass as I took Putin for many things but at least to some degree for a patriot. And this war proved me wrong. Partially. I am still right about all the reasons why this war is not good for Russia but I underestimated how far Putin would go for his own good. So, am I qualified? You tell me. I don't publish my thoughts in a newspaper or a blog. But I like to talk and I like having opinions. And I like talking about them because this can prove me right - or wrong in the easiest manner.

[@andreimoutchkine5163]

@@Arcaryon This war has been going on for the last 8 years already. Russia didn't just start it now.

[@davidjennings2179]

Whilst I've not seen any anti-putin sentiment I have heard of rising criticism for the military performance from within Russia. Important to note these are not views against the war itself, just for how the Russian military has messed up the attack. Some of this could come back to reflect on Putin.

[@johnnotrealname8168]

It could but Putin has changed the military leadership and it seems to be working for now.

[@supermaximglitchy1]

he wants a lot of putineers

[@johnnotrealname8168]

@Cloud9 You have to show you are popular.

[@svansy]

[Anyone asks to give points to my fondness of Leonid Brezhnev] [Me getting a mental image of his magnificent eyebrow] "All of them!"

[@davidbroady4840]

How popular is Joe Biden in America??

[@NahIdWin995]

in Russia the feelings are mixed about their government ofc it is hard for me to determin when i am not their but ig it is

[@jacksonteller1337]

There is a reason for the 200.000 refugees from Russia we had coming here for years and the major influx in February.

[@hujintao6862]

You can't conduct polling in dictatorships, period. No way around it. It's difficult enough to do in Western democracies, for example Trump - Clinton election.

[@gwho]

amazing

[@bensuico1224]

Unfortunately, the love and devotion the Russian people have for their leader encourages him to apply whatever means - possibly including nuclear weapons because it is being mentioned often enough during the war in Ukraine - he deems necessary to accomplish his goals. Maybe when a nuclear war starts, the Russian people will start questioning themselves whether or not they could have had prevented such a global disaster.

[@eddiemitza2544]

I don't think they would.

[@you-know-who5657]

Nah mate nuclear war won't happen they are just fooling you with the nuclear war

[@miniaturejayhawk8702]

If this means they turn into a second germany then I would prefer if they just got wiped of the map. And I am certain that most russian have a similar preference.

[@Ian123thoric97]

No chit

[@billotto602]

I think the numbers are much lower, especially considering the incredibly high casualties that Russia has been suffering. And as of late, news of massive protests occurring in Russia have dried up completely ! Suggesting a severe crack down by Russian security services.

[@gregjohnson7270]

I would think Putin's popularity would really be around 30 %.

[@veronica73126]

His approval rating is probably higher than we would like or think it should be but not as high as the Kremlin would have us believe.

[@ljco6106]

It's a very tough questions. Like everything it all depends who you ask. Russian nationalist do not like Putin. In fact he is known for financing his own opposition in order to identify and weaken them. Russia is set to become a majority Muslim country just like most of the countries in Western Europe. This is why he is hated by nationalist Russians. He has even opened mosques in Russia and shown them support. That is something 2 face Putin does not want you to know. Awesome video. Thank you.

[@LeadLeftLeon]

Russian nationalists do not like Putin. I’m glad you pointed this out. Putin is criticized in Russia for being sentimental towards the West. In fact Putin is a moderate and holds back the Russian War Beasts

[@soogetz1563]

20%

[@fgregerfeaxcwfeffece]

Even n states where hardly anything happens even if you are convicted of minor crimes like owning 2g of weed.(Which is extremely unlikely to even go to court even if you are caught by the police.) Most people I know will still lie in a poll. Even though consumption is already decriminalized. Meaning you can walk into a police station high as kite, proudly proclaim you did so. And best they can do is make a drug test and if they really hate you: you can maybe lose your drivers license for a while. So to me it's baffling how the approval rating is not 100% when you can go to prison for holding up a white piece of paper.

[@Google_Does_Evil_Now]

26,000,000 Russians died in WW2. They've a harrowing history. With Putin they've had things relatively stable even if it's corrupt and opposition politicians and journalists who investigate corruption can be executed, poisoned or imprisoned. It's not perfect but it's been much worse. I'm in Britain and there's no way from British TV that I can say I know anything about Russian politics. And I'm interested in these things. But TV in Britain is awful if you want to actually understand or learn about other countries. It's not just the lack of knowledge it's also the misinformation by most of the British media. In Britain there are five rich guys close to one political party that own and control app of the media. They political party is the "Rich Old Elites Government Contracts For Our Friends And Each Other Tax The Workers Most Party", also known as the Tory/Conservatives. They've recently passed a law that you can't make noise at a protest or you'll go to prison. Step by step they reduce the democracy. Strange how they never take steps to increase the democracy.

[@TheLoyalOfficer]

Still seems inconclusive.

[@MWUSA]

22%

[@capkill2005]

literally today Draghi was in some forum, and got a standing ovation form the journalists there, and the journals all say Draghi us super loved and supported, and still, i barely can find an italian that even remotely like Draghi. Propaganda is hard, propaganda is life

[@albertoiportillocaballero3163]

Good for them

[@matthiasberndt7897]

Why Angela Merkel and not Olaf Scholz?

[@ryanbaxley9727]

10 percent

[@GoodnKind]

has seen few major strategic objective be accomplished??? you actually put up this sentence . 126,119 sq km is few strategic objective? im speechless.

[@mshieh70]

Simple question to u who won the 2020 election

[@markmaki4460]

Perhaps i am odd in this, but i never support a person; rather i support actions and ideas. I admit i often feel a "tug" to support a person, but i am mindful that this is a weakness and make efforts to always "re-center" myself.

[@seandelaney1700]

You might find it a difficult experiment because, the person ie. character, morality, health, leadership, matters to a large degree.

[@markmaki4460]

@@seandelaney1700 Experiment? Maybe you misunderstand me.

[@seandelaney1700]

@@markmaki4460 I was referring to your novel idea which creates "feel a "tug"". I think you can just look at the positions and weigh them to your own scale, but the truth is we are indeed voting for a real person with all that entails and those things should be put on the scale.

[@Josh-gr1rr]

Bruh first 2016 now today

[@user-gq8cs4tg3x]

Thank you for actually admitting putin is still popular rather even though i can tell it pains you to say so. You can support ukraine and still admit facts that dont help your cause

[@derektrotter4287]

Yes he’s popular because half the nation have the intelligence of a donkey

[@derektrotter4287]

Popular among a nation of brainwashed alcoholics 😂

[@elixirdontask2131]

Bad to take castro as an example, as ppl even in russa might be scared to say anything negative about him. Pic some more neutral not affliated to the east or west like bolsonaro in brasil or something

[@Hand-in-Shot_Productions]

Good point! After all, I'm thinking that Cuba has been an ally of Moscow since Fidel Castro came into power! Obviously, the Kremlin line would be to say that Castro was great, just as the Kremlin line says that Assad, Lukashenko, and (of course) Putin himself are great! In light of that, one would wonder what happens when a Russian says that Castro was _not_ great!

[@tobiasglendenning7966]

I think there's a small majority in favour, however, only a tiny minority are enthusiastic about the war or him generally any more.

[@josesyuan2910]

It is has-no value it is impossible people can-give true answer

[@sausage4mash]

is this Putin's war or Russia's war ? your video suggests the latter to me

[@LeadLeftLeon]

Putin is criticized in Russia for being sentimental towards the West. In fact Putin is a moderate and holds back the Russian War Beasts

[@joer1678]

I think true poll numbers would be low with younger educated people. Those over 60 would support him to a higher degree

[@shaunrosenberg4568]

Do they ask the same people these questions? Because I would definitely see that as a trap if I got asked both.

[@Gametheory101]

Nope, they are completely separate groups!

[@mishun]

I'm not familiar with the field: is abstract "popularity" actually predictive of anything important?

[@budgetproductions1178]

we had a popularity poll last month and the result is identical to the election winners.

[@Alpostpone]

It's indicative of how decisions are received by the public, instructive to government for what to aim for and what to avoid, and predictive of how the next elections will turn out. That is, if you are in a democracy. In Russian context all of this is entirely academic.

[@Jonathanizer]

@@Alpostpone Not really. Even in autocratic governments like Russia or China, the leaders tend to try to keep people happy, or at least a minimum amount of people sufficiently happy to prevent a revolt. These autocrats know they can get away with a lot more corruption and misdeeds, but they also know if the breaking point comes, they are not simply retiring from office into a nice cushy pension, they might be dragged out in the streets and impaled or shot. Kremlin insiders said, Putin is desperately afraid to end up like Ghaddafi, and Ghaddafis death impacted Putin a lot. So measuring popularity of persons or politics is a lot more then "entirely academic", in the "Game Of Thrones"-style governments in some countries of the world, for these leaders it is a important measuring point to ensure their power and survival.

[@muzickside-vn2js]

Support for the war , duh 🙄

[@mishun]

@@muzickside-vn2js Ok, then is "support for war" predictive of anything important? :)

[@nationalsound7181]

Not really.

[@drfdev]

146%

[@MrPod15]

I think the algorithm used to ascertain Putins internal support is pointless. A better idea would be to ask how much would you want to be paid to support him compared to Zelenski!

[@frankalexander5401]

Couldn’t have happened to a better country!!!

[@rb26benjamin8]

Same thing can be said if anything your saying is true

[@Benni1214]

A trip to the Gulag... Jesus christ William 🤣

[@kornbob2665]

Putin's approval rating in Internet meme world had always been positive. I'm sure Putin's approval rating is higher than Joe Biden's, Kamala Harris' and Boris Johnson's ratings all combined.

[@michawhite7613]

Is there a possibility that people also feign support for Castro?

[@Hand-in-Shot_Productions]

Considering how Castro has been friend with Moscow for his rule, possibly!

[@0401412740]

So basically you're saying Russia fudges the numbers

[@Hand-in-Shot_Productions]

Essentially, yes!

[@Tugela60]

If you are running an autocratic country you get to decide the outcome of elections and polls, lol.

[@alcoholfree6381]

It appears to be impossible for the people to answer a question about support for Putin when they have no knowledge about what is really happening in Ukraine. It also depends upon the degree that they listening to the single channel TV propaganda.

[@neurofiedyamato8763]

Its still support nonetheless. Misinformed opinion or not, we look to see if Putin has support to determine the odds of civil unrest, regime change or a coup. Odds aren't high, at least not i nthe form of a popular uprising. And a military coup is unlikely as all the blame has been placed on the military so they increasingly have less and less influence.

[@nnelg8139]

One problem with this list scheme I see is that people won't answer "zero" on the latter list for the same reason they won't answer negatively if asked directly about Putin. They might also increase their number by one in anticipation of being asked follow-up questions that could identify *whom* they support, and want to keep their story straight. Edit: oh, you addressed that.

[@darkblade4340]

Q about the example: How can 53% support for Putin be deduced when only 50% of respondents get asked about Putin?

[@user-eq8in2xw6y]

53% of the 50% asked

[@mtrmtr5327]

What you said is quite wrong.

[@michelsaid5462]

When the Soviet Union collapsed and disintegrated in 1991 it left Russia disoriented, depleted and desperately broke especially after its honeymoon with Glasnost and perestroika when the population had been given all the freedom in the world on which they literally gone crazy on and they found they never knew how to handle such freedom especially since their thoughts of how free was the west was so overblown in their own imaginations they simply gone out on the town with it like drunken sailors of it on the town and really got way beyond their wildest imaginations but such a euphoria only lasted a short while before they started to wake up to the realities of themselves becoming broke and could neither afford nor sustain such lifestyles and then woke up to the reality and realised such unbridled freedom was simply too dangerous and they were not adequately capable of handling such freedom nor could they afford it and realised they better stick to to heir own way of living that is s familiar to then and Mr Putin inherited a very depleted economy on t he E verge of total collapse with much devastation of the economy and all it's institutions were so corrupt there seems to be no more hope for Russia. So Putin had not only revised Russia's economy but distributed fair portion of the nation's wealth towards social programs etc...much better than what the West has been doing.and revised all it's institutions and brought a lot of prosperity to his nation and much better distribution of the nation's wealth than in the west. Also instituted a lot of reforms the people approved of and they appreciated his efforts as he proved himself a very worthy president. This is I think is his source of popularity amongst all Russians and the more the West tried to discredit him amongst the world and even amongst his own people the more his popularity grew despite all the negativity arrayed against him he took all in his stride and continued to engage wherever possible and the people appreciate his honourable commitment to all causes on his people's behalf and when troubles arose he dealt with them swiftly to his people's expectations and admired him and showed him their gratitude for his benevolent actions. President Putin has shown himself to his people to being honourable and has love in his heart to Mother Russia beyond measure and the people will not accept any Western effort at undermining their love for him and their appreciations for the job well done by not only bringing Russia back from the Abyss it was facing.before he took office, but also the way he managed all it's affairs throughout his reign

[@sateentuoksu]

82 % for putler in gallups. 9 out of 10 refuses to answer at all -> really putler gets a yes from 8,2 % of all that're being asked.

[@coajdka]

keep staying delusional

[@sateentuoksu]

and now it's 5 % who answer

[@cramakrishnaiah1136]

Russia is popular in India as well as Mr. Puttin and their leaders earlier also. Indians good love for Russia unconditional in return Russia also keep the same. We never trust UK and US and to some extent NATO.

[@MrDenjaOne]

Mental gymnastics champion.

[@estherhidalgo7945]

Yes Putin popular

[@jrodstech]

And it could be conditioning. They see Putin and think it's a trick reguardless of what's been said and figured they better vote accordingly. If I thought my life depended on, or my families lives depended on my answer when I saw or heard Putin be added. Id raise my number just because he was present. So the welfare of me and my family would be preserved. The past rulers wouldn't matter.

[@jannetteberends8730]

I loved the list experiment. So simple and elegant. I love statistics. And I love how social science is solving this kind of problems. To me the approval rate seems quite possible. You only have to look at the trump supporters how loyal some people are. And that was after 4 year. Putin is the leader for a far longer period. And did quit well in the beginning. So after some years people wouldn’t change their opinion that easily.

[@gwho]

you have to look at biden/obama and how loyal some people are. And that was after years. see how what you said means nothing?

[@popscratchie3985]

obviously in democracies people do change their opinions otherwise the same people would forever be in power, kinda like somewhere else. In fact in democracies I'd guess the longer someone's in power the more chance they will be voted out, sometimes people just get bored with the status quo

[@cyberherbalist]

It is true enough that some people are so incredibly and mindlessly loyal that it doesn't matter how good or bad the person's/party's outcomes are, they support him/her/it regardless. There will always be those people, and on both sides. So when the economy is in tatters, illegal immigration is a flood, like it is now in the USA, Biden still has 35% or so approving. Trump's true believers are the same. But not all of Trump's supporters are true believers. Many of them have thrown their support to him because, despite his negative personality traits on display, his results spoke for themselves: economic favorability beyond many bounds, including lowest unemployment rates in many decades. Because I didn't like Trump, I did not vote for him 2016. I voted for some third-party candidate because I couldn't stand voting for Hillary, either. But after seeing his performance in office, despite cringing every time I saw one of his speeches, I was convinced to vote for him in 2020, even if I had to hold my nose while doing it. And Biden/Harris was an additional reason for voting for him. When you have the choice of voting for a bombastic narcissist who has succeeded in achieving most of his campaign goals, and the country is doing well, versus a man who is clearly senile and doesn't know where he is or what he's doing half the time, you have to vote for the bombastic narcissist. Unless you're a true believer and facts don't matter. But obviously, a large fraction of the country voted according to some other formula. How many of them regret voting for Joe after seeing the results? Clearly the majority, or Biden's approval rating would be much higher.

[@Rkay421]

My question do the Russian citizens see accurate info about the war

[@liaupikhan]

Same can be asked on citizens from western countries.

[@Rkay421]

@@liaupikhan I don’t know if we do or not