Is the Seasonal Transition Starting?

Рет қаралды 2,447

Stormsurf001

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 38

@ScientistRC86 5 ай бұрын

THANK YOU, just found this channel

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi ScientistRC - You are most welcome! So glad you found us. Welcome to our party.

@evolutionmoto 5 ай бұрын

I’m still feeling this La Niña being weak and the PDO getting ready to switch with the next onset of El Niño :). Fingers crossed!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Thanks so much for your contribution Evolution! Funny, I just read the post from Luigi above. He's thinking the something the same as you. And I'm starting to get onboard that train too. I think we're finally getting closer.

@craig8638 5 ай бұрын

Thanks!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi Craig - Wow! Very generous contribution! Thank you so much and thanks for enjoying the channel.

@craig8638 5 ай бұрын

@@Stormsurf001 Keep up the good work. 🤙

@EricSnyter 5 ай бұрын

Hey mark sorry I got sick and was unable to watch last week and my grandmother died but anyway it’s amazing both oceans are still nutral and both oceans have been very quiet it’s been a great month weather wise

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi Eric - So sorry the hear of your grandmothers passing. But yeah - weather wise things are indeed quiet. Hoping that changes as we get closer to Fall. Hope you're doing better.

@coachnate1 5 ай бұрын

Thanks as always Mark have a great week and get some waves🤙🏽🤙🏽

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi Coach! You are always welcome. I dodnt think we have to worry about missing surf, at least for a few days.

@luigiavila6102 5 ай бұрын

so Mark, I have a crazy theory: the consensus models keep pointing in the direction of a weak la Niña… and a bounce back… so I am starting to believe that we could have had this weak el niño as a sort of “primer niño” and the la niña is just a little nudge back to balance it…right before it kicks back in to a stronger el niño! it doesn’t look far off from my crazy theory when you look at the el niño forecast suggesting something similar is that within the realm of tangible possibilities? i just want to believe this el niño was a weird weak one just because it was gathering its strength for a bigger push!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi Luigi - You are not too far off the mark. In fact another view has been thinking that this is all just s precurso to a coming shift in the PDO from the cold phase to the warm phase. We've been due for this shift for about 6 years now. Of course just cause we 'think' we're due, doesn't mean the ocean will respond accordingly to our wishes. But I think you are on the right track. A weak La Nina hopefully will result in some form of El Nino behind it, unless this years La Nina is just a precursor to a stronger multi year La Nina behind it. But I suspect odds are low of that scenario unfolding. And rather, I think your plan is closer to how it will all play out. Guess we'll see.

@MrWarrenRetro 5 ай бұрын

We get 2029-31 multi-year La Nina

@jakemarlow8998 5 ай бұрын

Thanks for another awesome video! I have two questions about the WW3 model and how it calculates its swell heights along the coast. Does it consider the adverse effect of the French Polynesian "cheese grater" when swells travel from east of NZ to California? In other words, will it reduce the predicted swell heights along our coast, or does the user have to do the reduction? And does it account for the "preheated oven" effect where there the sea state is agitated from a storm in the same location a few days prior? In other words, will it increase the predicted swell heights along our coast, or does the user have to do the augmentation? Thanks!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Hi Jake - Good questions. The answer is yes to both. The model is much higher resolution as compared to years past and it accurately incorporates in hi-res maps of coastlines, islands, ocean depth and ice, all updated realtime (at least in terms of the ice). And yes, when they start running a model and before they release the data for public consumption, the model has to run for a few weeks to start assimilating all the current weather systems and their affects on the ocean so that newly developed systems are modeled acting on an already agitated sea state. All that said, the big issue is there are still large swaths of the ocean that don't have buoys, sensors or real time sensors to report existing sea states. Sure there are satellites that report wind and sea states, but some of the data is up to a week old. The Jason-3 satellite takes a full 7-9 days to make a pass over every square inch of the ocean. So the model just has to make it's best guess in those gaps. Hence the inaccuracies start to creep in. All that said, the models so a pretty good job most of the time...except when they don't. Hahah.

@jakemarlow8998 5 ай бұрын

@@Stormsurf001 Thanks so much for the detailed response! If only NDBC would bring back the Christmas Island buoy (51028)!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

@@jakemarlow8998 I really miss that buoy. Could see a southern hemi coming a mile away.

@boltup5566 5 ай бұрын

Hi Mark, would you recommend booking a trip the first week of September, for South facing Mexican or Central American spots? Thanks.

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

@@boltup5566 Hi BoltUp - The models are not looking good for the next week or so. But the MJO might help fuel some southern hemi action starting early to mid Sept. But...that is far from a guarantee. Tough call. I wouldn't book till the last minute if you can.

@MrWarrenRetro 5 ай бұрын

The 2027/2028 will be Neutral ENSO year, maybe just like 2013/14 too, for drier in California

@nickr2425 5 ай бұрын

Thanks Mark!!

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

You are most welcome Nick!

@MrWarrenRetro 5 ай бұрын

The 2034-2036 will be a double dip La Nina, basically the 2010-12 event. Then neutral ENSO of 2036-37, like basically 2012-13, and drought in California from 2036 to 2040.

@miertastrain 5 ай бұрын

Is that good for Boardin’?

@Stormsurf001 5 ай бұрын

Guess we'll see!

@MrWarrenRetro 5 ай бұрын

We get Ridiculously Ridge High Pressure in 2036-2040 like in 2012-16