Is This Proof That Hans Niemann Cheated?

On September 26, Hikaru Checks Out Yosha's Theories on Hans Cheating by reviewing her video and discussing it with chat and with HER in chat! Also Hikaru whips out chessbase and does his own calculations. He's not a mathematician, but it is what it is. Original video found here: • The most incriminating...
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[@yungspeedrunner8929]

just imagine, you got absolutely destroyed in 45 moves by some guy and get tilted, and then find out that you held for 45 moves against stockfish

[@vintce6019]

​@ Assuming the WHOLE game is Mate in 45 moves and you play the best moves, then I have no complaints.

[@fireandiron4181]

@ If you finish a game in 8 moves and it's 100% engine accuracy, that's one thing. But 45 moves in a row 100% engine accuracy? That is unheard of.

@Oscar csdj You know nothing to chess, so stop spreading lies: 1) The game was only 30 moves (first 15 moves were theory). 2) Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider only Stockfish, but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case, people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. 3) So the 100% correlation in Chessbase database isn't with Stockfish alone, but with any combination of a big number of engines. If you compare the moves against 50 different engines there's bound to be one of them suggesting your move, so it's much easier to get 100% correlation here. So 100% correlation here doesn't mean Niemann is playing exactly like Stockfish, it means he is playing a move at least one of the numerous engines is suggesting. Basically this proves absolutely nothing and no conclusions can be drawn from this.

[@thomasibach234]

@ wow you’re more precise than the best chess players of all time random guy on KZbin congratulations

[@colorsofsound4782]

​@ Niemann had multiple tournaments with higher engine correlation than Magnus and Kasparov, not just 1 game. Obviously it does not prove anything that he has mutlitple 100 correlation (not just accuracy) games whilst Carlsen and Fabiano have almost none

[@Jay-407]

Props to the guys that lasted 45 moves against someone with 100% accuracy

[@TiptronicSS]

The chess has spoken for itself!

[@1fast72nova]

I was curious... If he lasted 45 moves against 100% what was that person's score... That seems to be a very important question

[@krosserq3737]

@@1fast72nova it doesnt really connect he could have won position by move 30 and fully accurate for next 15 moves which were just transition, it would make his oponent be max 66% which is fine

[@1fast72nova]

@@krosserq3737 but what was the actual number. Could be 66... Could be 98

[@ThePhDSpanish]

@@1fast72nova They were at 62%, they show the result at 28:46 - so in the lower range of a 'Super GM' average engine correspondence

[@PoucoHabilidoso]

Garry Kasparov was so good that he intentionally had his percentage at 69%

[@richardahmyt8683]

Musk level geni right there.

[@zibberebbiz]

nice

[@geekculture5308]

nice

[@pranavkolambkar]

nice

[@prajwalbharambe343]

nice

[@SasukeUchiha-vb2vy]

The thing I’m most impressed with is the dude who managed to take Stockfish to a 45 move endgame.

[@vintce6019]

The dude was probably hanging on for dear life.

[@radim22]

Plot twist: he used Stockfish as well.

[@xxxx85]

Hahahaha TRUE! 😂😂

[@TheBest14184]

@ I agree to a certain extent. The issue is other players should also be getting 100% if it’s that easy to get one of those moves, but they don’t. Pretty much all your arguing is that all the super GMs are so bad they can’t find one of the moves from hundreds of different engines, only Hans can.

[@TheBest14184]

@ if anything to me that suggests he could be attempting to hide the fact he is cheating by not using the best stock fish move everytime, but using a different engine for a certain proportion of moves. So no singular engine will match exactly what he plays, making detection of cheating harder.

[@notabene9630]

Congratulations to the player who managed to hold 45 moves against stockfish

[@hemanghuria4956]

Plot twist- Opponent was also using stockfish

[@vy282]

lmao

[@ricardodossantos1642]

@@hemanghuria4956 😂😂

[@isasadiqov7721]

Legend🤣

[@silas3463]

Plot twist 2: When Gotham shows engine games it’s Hans’s games against other robots

[@sobbski2672]

At this pace, Hans will be the World Champion in no time. As long as he doesn't forget to replace the batteries

[@CircoSalvona]

Was going to like your comment but… Casper’s number!

[@alveraan1]

I wanted to like this, but you currently have 69 likes. Nice.

[@sharklite3316]

Giving like just because it will reach hans elo rating gains

[@Myrslokstok]

He can but not for moore then half the games.

[@arendlanser8818]

Maybe he should replace anal beads from time to time as well.

[@alveraan1]

Hans is really buzzing with excitement every time he plays.

[@michaelmurray6577]

Bruh 😂

[@El-E009]

💀💀💀

[@Proud_Troll]

Buzzing with pleasure. 🤤

[@scampig9715]

in the rear end chess speaks for itself

[@Lordofthunda]

Bbbbbbb4

[@noahh2338]

Congrats to hikaru on scoring 100% on this video, he got a perfect score by making us all watch one hour of him messing with his computer..

[@davidgarcia2016]

I didn't need to be called out like that today, damn

[@alejandrohagad628]

FREE MY BOI HANS

[@jameslorman4715]

An hour ? I skipped a ton..... didn't everyone ?

[@budabudimir1]

He really did pull some great moves out of his ass

[@EricM93]

morse code thru the ass to 45 straight stockfish moves.

[@thanos5220]

@@EricM93 lmfao

[@rohmadhariyadi1418]

Literally 😂

[@-_Nuke_-]

XD

[@Lamonte424]

😂😂😂😂

[@autoimmunedefficiencysyndrome]

Hikaru being disappointed with a 2/3 correlation of his moves with the engine is so funny.

[@newplayer1313]

The amount of moves Hans played at 100% correlates to the number of beads at that moment

[@itsapplesaucetoaboss8216]

Gaped

[@robbie_]

Hold on to your butts...

[@oosmanbeekawoo]

You don't realise even when you play Stockfish moves that doesn't mean you are cheating-provided you memorised those moves before the play.

[@korditsch7792]

@@oosmanbeekawoo You don't realise that it is practically impossible to memorise the whole game because there is so many variations on the board.

[@oosmanbeekawoo]

@@korditsch7792 When you are at high level, it is _imperative_ that you memorise most of the book moves, and he admitted himself he got lucky to have looked that one up!

[@batchynator]

The closed captions have about a 10% accuracy rate.

[@AwesomeGingersFtw]

How does Hans look older than Magnus? The stress speaks for itself..

[@frostdemon6787]

That's because he is

[@Sasoridellasabbia]

@@frostdemon6787 You think he cheated on the birth certificate?

[@rexsthegreat22]

@@Sasoridellasabbia maybe that’s when he found out he’s skilled at something

[@frostdemon6787]

@@Sasoridellasabbia Oh shoot sorry I thought you said Hikaru, anyways yeah Hans looks really old for a 19yr

[@nia.d33]

Short telomeres

[@The-Rest-of-Us]

Not Hans’ fault if his opponents keep running into his perfect 45 move prep

[@joaocarlosdarosafagundes7482]

Considering his game against Magnus, we should have expected miraculous preparations from Hans.

[@Zeromus725]

What lube does he prep with?

[@AB-dd4jz]

@@Zeromus725 lube is cheating Hans don't cheat ;)

[@Zeromus725]

@@AB-dd4jz Lube isn't cheating, it's a perfectly reasonable tool to reduce friction

[@alkaholic4848]

4.5 inch prep

[@Anichels]

It's not only that Hans gets high computer correlation scores, it's also that he struggles to explain his moves versus other potentially good moves when interviewed.

[@Ricardo7250]

Yep. If you consistently make an effort to think through very complex positions then it's only natural that you can talk about it from the top off your head, sometimes too fast for other people to catch up (seriously, look at all the WCC interviews post game)

[@brucewayne4172]

This is a big red flag tbh. Any other player of his level being interviewed, and they will rattle off like 3 15 depth alternate lines they considered before going with the move they did, or they will be like “yea I’m a huge idiot for playing that because after (insert 20 move line where there are -0.3 after)”

[@Devilfish6666]

Yeah because even if he is fed say the entire top engine line for 5-6 moves, he will instinctively stop considering other moves and just try to figure out why this line is actually that great OTB. And then when say Alejandro Ramirez asks him but what about this or that move in this position then he has no clue why this is good/bad because he never thought about it for too long and even if he did he does not have the understanding of a super GM to come up with the full proper analysis why this move is good/bad.

[@ifbfmto9338]

@@Devilfish6666 Yes His interviews are suspicious without question But these past events are far, far more damning, I am now nearly certain Hans has cheated OTB in the past That’s still not proof whether or not he cheated in the Sinquefield cup, and we will probably never know for sure But it’s clear Hans is a serial cheater

[@DjKryx]

Yeah man, some people are just bad at speaking in front of cameras, i would fold for sure

[@giovanni_7191]

51:18 Hikaru enters one of his two best games of his career in the engine to analyse. He expects (hopes,wishes...) for an 100%. Ok, maybe 95. ...gets a 66 :D

[@samnass]

​@Rvve Duio Wow! a smart comment ! worth repeating many times!

[@novacatz]

This engine correlation is something new and innovative and so folks still calibrate how to interpret the percentages. 66 still stacks update as Super GM and world class performance...

[@giovanni_7191]

@Rvve Duio That's not a good joke regarding this situation: A good joke would be like "Why the frustration Mr. Hikaru? After all, just 5 seconds ago you said "2648. I wasn't a very good player back then" :) Or: Hikaru's new nickname: "Mr.-best-game-ever-66". (already circulating amongst the members of the small SuperGMs society) Or: After the video session Nakamura turns the laptop off. Lowens the screen Lowens his stare... (Slow moves). "Damn... I thought I knew this game well... My whole life is a lie... " :) Or: next morning,after a bad sleep with nighmares, he wakes and goes to the bathroom. Goes to the mirror. Looks to the mirror. Talks to the mirror: "Sixty Six? SIXTY SIX? You're just a HUSTLER! Not a Grandmaster!" :) etc Ps. yeah i know i have a rich imagination...

[@touaxwat46-15]

@@giovanni_7191 shut up u r the one who is cringe there

[@danielcrase]

Hikaru is also just good because of his play style

[@NicoDavid]

I am consuming this chess drama in a very unhealthy manner.

[@Fred-tz7hs]

nice checkmark

[@IronFire116]

Same

[@baggedcoleslaw]

Same

[@Ivar-Plays]

Hahaha naligaw ka boss

[@ize7953]

Kamatis check! HAHAHAHHAHHA

[@jorgeherrera1074]

Magnus loves chess. It’s his life’s passion. I bet even when he loses, as much as it may hurt, he appreciates his opponent’s play. I doubted he made these accusations baseless. And glad to see that’s very likely the case.

[@chrimony]

Magnus put his reputation on the line by doing this. That's what it took to get somebody who has been cheating for years caught. There really needs to be a lifetime ban for guys like Hans.

[@grottphd9090]

possibly but it was also certainly a very frustrating loss for Magnus regardless, seeing as he was about to reach his long-time goal of 2900 and losing to a lower rated player was a big setback

[@TheGluv4e]

@@grottphd9090 he's gonna get his points back when Hans gets caught with his stockfish buttplug

[@andriuscibas]

@@chrimony he was caught, it was just shoved under the carpet

[@Spikebert]

@@andriuscibas What source or evidence do you have for that?

[@scoogsy]

Not only does the chess speak for itself, it plays for itself.

[@morelhunter3966]

So Hans is far, far better than anyone who has ever lived. But only every once in awhile.

[@eatingjr1805]

only when he feels that tingle

[@ghosthunter0950]

@@eatingjr1805 only when he's vibing.

[@alienrenders]

Only when his batteries don't die.

[@darkstudios001]

To be fair, statistics and stochastics are like, predicated on that

[@AndrewH1994]

only when he’s really plugged in

[@philippemathieu1541]

« It’s really a pain in the ass » H. Niemann, 2022

[@hugocarrin4509]

"Looks like i fucked myself, literally" H. Niemann, 2022

[@ruddyxmax]

Literally!!!

[@syros007]

Lol

[@mrcpu9999]

They found the beads. Had the Tesla T engraved on them.

[@amark350]

Are you referencing the vibrator that’s up his butt sending him signals?

[@DancingMachine1]

Edit: Sorry everyone, my original comment was wrong and basically I am not even qualified to talk about this topic. Some people have given very plausible explanations, as to why my comment was not correct - Check the replys Original comment: So the Hans games correlating 100% with Stockfish in over 40 move games is just such a close to impossible coincidence. You have to play EXACTLY like Stockfish to achieve that, because if a person played better than stockfish, it would be less than 100% correlation.

[@WorstDrummerNA]

This is such a good point.

[@morelhunter3966]

Well said. This isnt caught red handed but Ill be damned if it isnt right next to it.

[@zetacrucis681]

Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider stockfish but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. This will push the correlation score way up.

[@Person01234]

@@zetacrucis681 All the way up to 100% right? I mean magnus and hikaru, probably barely anyone has ever run their games through.

[@zelandakhniteblade5436]

Did you not notice that even in the supposedly 100% games, Hans did not play exactly like Stockfish? A good example is the ...Kb7 move that Hikaru spent some time over. Stockfish actually recommends ...Rh5 there but some lesser engines (Deep Fritz was one) suggest Kb7 *at this time control*. If you were to extend the analysis time beyond 600, most likely the lesser engines would see ...Rh5 too. The final number you get is dependant on the parameters you choose and the hardware you are running it on. I am not saying there is nothing potentially suspicious here, far from it, but I do think it needs further analysis, particularly as I trust Ken Regan somewhat more than what we are seeing here.

[@GoodnotGreat88]

When your moves correlate 100% with stockfish and you cant explain why you made them in the post game interview.

[@JynxSp0ck]

8.21% of Hans' games are at least 90% engine match and 2.49% are 100% engine match.

[@marcelmattern7722]

Maybe he is the best chess player of all time. Just Kidding.

[@bobtheslayer561]

That's unbelievable...

[@Shipdacheese]

@@bobtheslayer561 It is impossible not unbelievable.

[@ikillwithyourtruthholdagai2000]

@@Shipdacheese no its not impossible, its impossibly unprobable

[@Shipdacheese]

@ Hans's rise through rating has been meteoric. He has games where he looks like an idiot and games (a lot of em) with 100% accuracy. His style has baffled pretty much all players who simply do not understand his moves. Can you imagine top GM's being baffled on some of his moves? On top of all this, he is being accused by Carlsen whom i never seen to behave like this. If this were Hikaru most people wouldn't bat an eye. If Hans is cheating he will be found eventually unless he has some sort of under the skin implant or something because all eyes will be on him and his games. Ofc he still just might be a genius and will become the strongest player in history in the years to come. We'll see but it's never a good idea to be put in this position...where you are either a genius or a cheater because one is more likely than the other.

[@Mistral434]

It might be interesting to examine the security measures used for the tournaments where he played suspiciously versus the security measures where he played more normally.

[@ghosthunter0950]

I'd rather see them hire people attempting to cheat personally.

[@chrimony]

There's already been an analysis that showed Hans's rating in over the board tournaments that were broadcast versus not broadcast. Huge difference.

[@rinslow]

Good idea!

[@radicalrick9587]

@@gaboelexo *Well of course St Louis said that. "We investigated **_ourselves,_** our contest, and security checkpoints and found no wrongdoing".*

[@boccobadz]

@@gaboelexo Imagine them admitting that their security is a joke.

[@leonardjulius6098]

Walking Hikaru through how to use ChessBase was like showing my dad how to make a Gmail account

[@moriyokiri3229]

Yea great comparison, very fascinating

[@grandmarquee]

And like your dad he'll still kick your ass. 😄

[@YukiNakaii]

LMAO

[@hansmahr8627]

It's funny because he's probably been using Chessbase for 20 years or so. It's the standard program that's used by all professional players.

[@dracula7779]

Thank you

[@dawnkeehotcops7639]

Hans is not a cheater, he just has a good gaming chair

[@prashanth1047]

😂😂😂

[@swapode]

Is it a really tiny bar stool? Just to be clear, I'm talking small enough to go up someone's backside...

[@lancetheking7524]

And it has a vibrate feature

[@zTeaTheCoffee]

original joke

[@Ulujmf]

Usually Carlsen when he loses will acknowledge the good play of the opponent or his bad play. So he knows something not right

[@alienrenders]

Yeah, this is something a lot of people don't seem to get. Magnus loves great play. He really likes when a player fights and finds a way to best him. Sure, he doesn't like to lose. But I've always seen him give credit. This time, it's different and we all know why.

Minus Carlsen knows nothing. Minus Carlsen is a bad loser. That's all. His behavior is despicable.

[@grumpytroll6918]

So option 1) Hans has the most advanced (and secret) over the board cheating mechanism ever invented by mankind: anal beads. He has been training for years to use this to beat the best players at all time controls, undetectably. Option 2) Magnus played bad because he was suspicious and distracted and lost to a 2700 rated player.

[@commonsense1527]

@@grumpytroll6918 Why are these the only two options?

[@grumpytroll6918]

@@commonsense1527 please add options you think are missing

[@chrisosborne4731]

I have a degree in mathematics. In general stuff being shown in the video can be used as evidence. Statistical analysis is not a tool for proving a specific conclusion but for showing if there is irregularity. A lot of math rigor has to be done to substantiate these irregularities. It should be possible to put all GM games through and calculate the normal range and the outlier frequency and determine the probability that any GM plays with the consistency as Hans does. Once irregularity is determined you have to consider the reasons these irregularities exist. Sometimes there are multiple possibilities, though cheating is the most obvious consideration.

[@victor6010]

the best players in the world at their peak are not even close to hans 😂🤣

[@Ainlore]

@@victor6010 even the publicly know cheater not even close to hans

[@davidanoble]

The answer is obvious. Stockfish is getting all its moves from Hans using an earpiece.

[@ZyNeEnZyNe]

I got a phd in youtube commenting and from my expertise I can conclude that: Stockfish is probably not a human, probably.

[@LaymensLament]

🙏 i argue something similar. even tho it looks bad, i think it is bad precedent to start talking about this stuff before a more rigorous analysis of data has been made.

[@rossmurray6849]

Wow, this is a burn! (29:30) "Congratulations, maybe, to his opponent, I guess, to have resisted for that many moves." Yep, 45 moves is quite a performance.

[@inquisitive8086]

My opinion: Hans was a regular iM who was super desperate to break into the GM barrier but just couldn't. So he started cheating and now that he is playing with GMs and super GMs, he cannot stop cheating or else he will be exposed. I mean just judging by how idiotic his post game analysis was in Sinquefield, it kinda makes sense.

[@zadh]

I think you have a point here.

[@ChessJourneyman]

He did the same to make a breaktrough online...

[@ncs9753]

If Hans is not banned for life, chess is basically ruined.

[@simonramdath1213]

even from blitz and bullet you can see he isn't a regular IM. He's for sure strong, and that's what makes him a potentially dangerous cheater.

Your opinion is absolutely stupid, because all the Yosha video and stats are filled with massive methodological mistakes. The biggest are: 1) Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider only Stockfish, but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case, people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. 2) So the 100% correlation in Chessbase database isn't with Stockfish alone, but with any combination of a big number of engines. If you compare the moves against 50 different engines there's bound to be one of them suggesting your move, so it's much easier to get 100% correlation here. So 100% correlation here doesn't mean Niemann is playing exactly like Stockfish, it means he is playing a move at least one of the numerous engines is suggesting. Basically this proves absolutely nothing and no conclusions can be drawn from this.

[@toddpdroneworks563]

The great running coach Jason Coop was once asked what it took for someone to use PED's in racing and he answered in one word "Ego". You can see from his interviews that Han's has a 5,789 EGO rating.

[@lopezmt5]

Spot on comment! Also, look at his meltdowns. He is unstable. What do you get when you mix a high ego with unstable, uncontrollable emotion? And an admitted cheat? You get Hans-“Stockfish in the flesh”…

[@ShinYamiZakura]

@@lopezmt5 Stockflesh is actually such a good name for an edgy cyborg :o

[@mechadonia]

Idk why but this comment made me imagine Hans taking steroids to get better at chess 😂😂😂 funny thing is early hair loss is a symptom of steroid abuse too hahaha.

[@RU-qv3jl]

This video and the one you showed in the stream were the two most valuable videos I’ve watched in this saga. Thanks for the content and discussing all of it.

[@ImTheRonzy]

now we have to wait szn 3

[@nolikeygsomnipresence270]

+1. Hikaru's initial explanation of the situation and this video have been key.

[@Japhu]

Maybe you should not base your opinion on a video which is being destroyed by various commentators on how bad the statistics are

[@fahadali5046]

Congratulations to Hans “The 100%” Niemann, the chess truly speaks for itself

[@Stain3610]

How ironic indeed.... The chess really does speak for itself...

[@zenyatta5064]

@@Stain3610 chess speaks for itself

[@tuneandsmash9346]

The chess has to speak for itself because Niemann can't understand his own moves.

[@boxofcans461]

I can't wait for chess to testify against Hans 🤣

[@zenyatta5064]

@@boxofcans461 chess speaks for itself

[@rolandoflores7711]

Magnus: Hans is getting 100%? I’m getting 72! Hikaru: magnus is get 72%? I’m getting 61! Me: you guys are getting percents???

[@CaliforniaCarpenter7]

Lol, sounds about like my chess playing 😆

[@hseanhill]

My games justs gives a popup that says why did you run this?

[@leon3230]

I get basis points

[@zlonewolf]

0.001% is still % just not a whole percent.😅

[@edwardp7725]

Bobby Fischer was a beast holy shit. 72 percent pre - engine is NUTTY. I wish we could see a prime Magnus vs prime Fischer

[@takeachance5881]

I'd say that's why he hated engine so much. It's like you are good by default than others and then technology comes in and ruins his first 20 move advantage completely. No one would be happy in that situation.

[@Mortenen]

Magnus would destroy Fischer. Not to take anything away from him, but the game now and how it's taught have evolved immensely over the last decades. Especially with the help of computers to formulate theory and tactics. Prime Magnus vs Prime Fischer with the same training as Magnus. Now that would be interesting.

[@Jsmith1611]

Opponent strength matters. The best moves may be more limited if your opponents are worse.

[@Flamingcloud083]

Remember when your opponents play bad moves it is easier to find the best move. When your opponents tend to play the same openings all the time it is easier to study lines and memorize the best moves for those lines. There are way more openings /lines being played than ever before because players now have a way of knowing if a line is good without spending dozens or hundreds of hours of prep on that new idea. I would be extremely shocked if those were not extremely important factors for this sort of a statistic.

[@TigerTzu]

Another thing to consider is that at the highest level, it's often times better to purposefully play a non computer move to pull your opponent out of prep and into a line you know better.

[@jonathanhockey9943]

The chess is truly starting to speak for itself now, and its telling us something quite clear about Mr Niemann

[@ivanalkemist]

And what is it??

[@blizyon30fps86]

@@ivanalkemist that he’s undoubtedly a cheater

[@__Jesus_is_God__]

@@blizyon30fps86 good play isn’t proof

[@EricM93]

@@ivanalkemist that with 99.99999% certainty he is cheating

[@jdransom5164]

@@__Jesus_is_God__ This isn’t good play. It’s otherworldly play

[@dannygjk]

It's not just about opponents. 1. When Carlsen was asked which player he would most like to play in a match he said Fischer. 2. Fischer was ranked extremely high in accuracy by engines not just in his famous winning streak. 3. Keep in mind this was in the era before clock increments and delays. It's more difficult to maintain high accuracy with no increment or delay.

[@vintce6019]

Fischer was praised by the engines Then there's Hans who's vibing with them

[@samnass]

@Silent Man I've heard they are comparing engine moves to Hans database now to double check engines accuracy...

[@Sugarrushhh90]

What you are saying it’s just not true. It is about opponents, Ill give you example. If you play a noob and he gives his pieces for free of course computer move will be taking the piece, so does gm move. But when the opponent does not makes mistakes it’s way more difficult to find out the engine move.

[@dannygjk]

@@Sugarrushhh90 You are comparing patzers to GMs.

[@Sugarrushhh90]

@@dannygjk i am telling you that you don’t understand and I am explaining so you can understand. Do you understand?

[@goorioles1976]

If you looked closely when they showed the tournaments where he played over 70% for several in a row, he had many games over 80 and over 90%. It wasn't just the 100% ones that are suspicious. He's clearly cheated in many more. Firmly on team Magnus now.

[@dark_sunset]

He clearly cheated? Because of some statistics? That is the response of an ignorant human who operates based on assumptions. Innocent until PROVEN guilty, not suspected. I won't pretend like I know this man cheated because I don't know it, and neither do you. People like you are the reason innocent people have died throughout history because someone wanted to go after someone else before they had absolute proof.

[@stoppernz229]

The math and logic in this video are just plain wrong....

[@Awardsnow]

Really? Why dont you explain genius

[@stoppernz229]

@@Awardsnow Theyre not matching his moves to a single engine but what ever engine happened to match hos move that turn. There is an assumption that Magnus is and always will be better than everyone else. Niemann has played live games since against top players and won, there has been no drop in his skill , as you would expect if he wasnt cheating anymore, u less you think his cheat method is so undetectable that he continues to use it even umder extreme scrutiny. It stretches the vounds of belief. Magnus did something cowardly when he slyly acused him. As for cheating in the past when he was a kid, ive seen videos of magnus as an adult feedingovers to a kid so he could beat a chess hustler, ie cheating. so there goes that argument too.

[@MCoTEDDY]

@@stoppernz229 just curious what extreme scrutiny are you talking about? Bc at the Magnus game they didn't even have metal detectors ...

[@mrpocock]

You could do 100% for your prep. But once you are beyond prep, it just isn't going to happen. I would love to see the correlation tracked by move number, or by early, mid, end game.

[@ModernEphemera]

He had 100% on a 45 move game

[@hatakenewt348]

This engine excludes theory from the analysis

[@solanaceous]

Hans played better than freaking Bobby fisher on his streak

[@zHqqrdz]

@@solanaceous Not only this, but he also played better in a much more competitive era. It's easy to have 100% accuracy against total monkeys like me, it's insanely hard against those GM monsters.

[@us-Bahn]

Yes, I was thinking along the same lines. It would be interesting to analyse the top 100 chess players’ games and determine how many moves into the game they sustained their 100% accuracy. The ones who went deepest probably have the highest ELO ratings, thus proving Fischer’s premise that success is book-memory dependent.

[@MaxPalaro]

Congrats to the Super Grand Master that holded Stockfish for 45 moves. WOW

[@derrickwayne4627]

i holded stockfish for 26 moves 😂

[@flechiir]

opa tu aqui akakakak

[@Poseidon-oz9pg]

you literally stole this comment

[@rapnok6475]

@@Poseidon-oz9pg 😂😂😂

[@wigglyk2796]

I hope hans takes Magnus and Hikaru to court for defamation and libel. Hans should hire the same lawyer as Johnny Depp. Magnus gonna be a bankrupt man soon.

[@victorsilvapacheco9630]

28:48 Hikaru starts freaking out about Hans' superhuman accuracy on a long game

[@denimchicken8080]

45 moves 100% accurate is the nail in the coffin on this discussion. Don't know if he cheated vs Magnus, but Hans has lost all credibility.

[@deez5396]

29:19 Hikaru after he finds me over a body in amongus

[@lokeshkumar-ff8kx]

@@deez5396 if this was not a reply comment I guess it would've got like 1k+ likes😂

[@deez5396]

@@lokeshkumar-ff8kx lol even 5 is generous imo

[@lokeshkumar-ff8kx]

@@deez5396 and for me the 1 like that you gave is enough

[@mayfort8573]

10 games with 100% correlation, 23 games at 90+ while other super GMs hardly have one or two games at that level really shows Hans is the GOAT of chess.

[@mayfort8573]

This is honestly sad to see. I love Hans postgame interviews so much.

[@alextrust1186]

Haters gonna hate

[@Danthrax81]

You're so certain he is magically as good as a chess engine?

[@balakethedog]

@FLIXX REMIXX’D very obvious sarcasm r/woooosh

[@MArk-yn4sp]

Anomaly identified but still no practical proof of foulplay.

[@anotherlover6954]

How does it feel when you win? Hans: I get a tingling sensation.

[@zalo3479]

Ah you fucker 😂 made me spit coffe on my pc monitor

[@dazey856]

😂😂😂

[@Enchantaire]

So many games at 100%, after playing for years under 65%. Hans really has made some unbelievable progress!

[@Hecatonicosachoron]

He is still quite young... it's not surprising that he is improving a lot in his late teens and early 20s

[@SchimbaChannel]

He is playing so many more games than all other gm's and his games are all much harder analysed. All this correlation is not a proof of anything. If Nieman studies more from stockfish moves, than he will play more like an engine by feel. All of the bests play mostly by feel and than calculate lines they see. Like Hikaru said, once you see it it's obvious. They(old gms, like Hikaru) have a problem cause when Hikaru was learning his 'feel' engines were not available. I think that we will see a big raise in these '100%' players as chess naturally evolves.

[@e4jasperi]

@@SchimbaChannelthe Dewa Kippas strat, learn from the engines.

[@hexillionvitry4762]

@@SchimbaChannel He's not playing more than the top 20 FIDE bro and it's not more hard analysed

[@SchimbaChannel]

@@hexillionvitry4762 show me who exactly from top 20 FIDE attended as many open tournaments as Hans. I'll wait.

[@johnostensen]

Hans Niemann, the greatest chess players to walk this earth. 45 moves 100% accuracy. Boss level.

[@Bobo-Vieri]

Stockfish 14 is so good😂😂😂

[@Lewd_Fox]

He just had a good gut feeling about things.

[@davenoscope3836]

It is not 100% accuracy, get your fact straight.

[@parallaxdoxus]

@@Lewd_Fox it speaks for itself?

[@MMAoracle]

@@davenoscope3836 No, it’s better. It’s 100% correlation with the best move of at least one of the main engines. 100% accuracy just means that you pick one of the top moves, not necessarily the best move.

[@georgesiaosi2087]

Hans: The chess speaks for itself. The chess: heEeeE's cHEatiiiNg...

[@Channelman5342]

At this point there are only two options: 1. Hans cheated. 2. Hans is the greatest chess player in recorded history.

[@信者の男]

2. Hans had the greatest performance in the chess history according to her data.

[@Infiltator2]

3 rd would be that the algorithm is wrong. But 2 and 3 are just not likely at all. I mean he is the same age as Firouzja. Everyone would have talked about Niemann if he would really be that good.

[@84y87]

@@Infiltator2 Everyone *is* talking about Hans …

[@luisfelipesalas8533]

nah, 100% Korelation in 45 moves is impossible. Not even for the best performance of his life. Hikaru, in the best performance of his life got to 80% in fewer moves.

[@Rassettaja]

I'm thinking the algorithm is wrong and the games he got 100% the opponents had very low scores dipping down to the 18%. Just like why Fischer had such a high %, because his opponents were worse back then. The one with 45 moves and 65% from the opponent is very sus but in my mind he's innocent until proven guilty.

[@adriendebosse6941]

About Sebastien Feller. It was never discovered directly that he cheated. It was discovered because the "engine" man forgot his phone on a french federation executive's desk and the phone got a sms with "keep giving moves to seb", which started all the investigation in France, and then after the tournament it was made public when they had proofs.

[@saptaparnoburmanroy614]

Goes to show how difficult it is to prove over the board cheating.

[@lolmouf]

how was he receiving the intel? How can somebody cheat over the board? Deep ear piece? mouth piece?

[@kunalsingh4418]

@@lolmouf modern ones use bunch of complicated ways. These guys after all even if cheaters are genuises. Like last time they caught somebody who was receiving moves using aa morse code device in his shoe. Basically all they need is one device anywhere on their body capable of receiving signals and vibrating corresponding to move recieved. Hence the anal beads idea.

[@Franchifis]

@@lolmouf Morse code and a vibrating butt blug

[@Qruel_x]

@@Franchifis 😂😂😂

[@aboodmsh6854]

*Hikaru puts video on 1.5x speed* Me, who is already watching at 2X: oof

[@notlisztening9821]

Would be fine, if the accent of the youtuber wouldn't be so intelligible

[@Hippida]

In my experience as a chess fan, no human puts it in the dead center move after move 30-40+ times in a row. With Magnus experience, it's prob very intuitive to feel/see that the moves he is facing are computer generated. Human players make mistakes, even mistakes in not exploiting opponents mistakes. That's what make chess fun, to play And watch. Must have been a very confusing moment when he realized he had lost that match against Hans

[@aweskome4894]

Watching this live just hits different, especially since he experiences technical difficulties every 5 minutes 🗿

[@yujayden5383]

Facts

[@forcommentingpurposesonly2918]

If you were going to say something this unoriginal you could've just called him a boomer and left it at that.

[@TrillShatner]

Hikaru being 6/10ths the player Hans is at his best speaks for itself

[@aaronwarwick9966]

6/10ths seems wrong. We should compromise at 3/5ths.

[@steeal_wizzard4399]

@@aaronwarwick9966 wow.... that is a dark joke

[@atilabie]

@@aaronwarwick9966 Jesus christ

[@xxfazenoscoper360doesnosco7]

@@steeal_wizzard4399 what’s the joke

[@aHoboAt711]

my 8th grade history lesson has prepared me for this one joke

[@haakoflo]

Now, if you REALLY want to prove that this was cheating, find the person that was betting big on Hans with bookmakers for these 100% games....

[@hackeronte7970]

Can you bet on chess players?

[@alertedcoyote7892]

@@hackeronte7970 You can bet on anything

[@Atypical-0]

What sites to look for though?

[@parsonsproject2]

That's what I thought. Follow the money. See if any big / regular payments are going out from Hans to somebody else and you will know who's on the other side of that stockfish.

What a stupid comment by a coward who likes to slander people without any proof, like in the worst dictatorships.

[@ruddyxmax]

Note he takes about 20 seconds to find such amazing moves!!!

[@alextrust1186]

I feel bad for doubting Magnus on his accusations

[@dg8620]

The best way to present this info is to look at a bar graph (1 graph per GM) showing their distribution of games for each group of accuracy %. I.e. here is 1000 Hans games, the number of 0-5% accuracy games, 5-10%, 10-15% etc. If Hans is cheating you would expect to see 1 Bell curve peak for normal GMs (around 65%), and you'd see 2 for Hans (at around 65%, with a second around 100%).

[@Hanensens]

This! ⬆️⬆️⬆️

[@alexanderschanne3634]

You can also just do a histogram for Nieman's data and see if it's normally distributed or not. Edit: I checked. It's not normally distributed.

[@aqdjbcr]

You could be cheating and have a normal distribution

[@idahogunslinger263]

@@aqdjbcr you would need a computer to tell you when to make bad moves. Not likely but in theory in 2022 it’s possible.

[@Carolus33]

@@idahogunslinger263 Super gms can definitely tell on their own when to cheat or not

[@dbchesss2850]

“ Garry Kasparov at 69% very nice “ 😂

[@jimraynor3767]

69 like the sex position. 🤣High five!

[@lrvz7187]

Kasparov most like cheated with engines to lower his % to 69% lmao

[@dbchesss2850]

@@lrvz7187 😂

[@JollyRogerTheDodger]

Gary Casper*

[@tomquirk9893]

This is by far the best evidence I've seen that something isn't right, numbers don't lie

[@chloegpt]

It’s still not all that incriminating. Yosha definitely was not doing a fair analysis by comparing only a handful of Hans’ games to the general average of other GMs. Its easy to exaggerate with statistics.

[@AcidicDelusion]

@@chloegpt He had multiple games at 100%. Dude definitely has those beads up his bum.

[@Kayrim_Borlan]

@@chloegpt The problem with your argument is that Yosha didn't cherry pick. The engine correlation of all of Hans's games were shown. Yosha just specifically emphasized how many games Hans had with 100% accuracy. Considering how young he is (therefore how few tournaments he's played relative to players like Hikaru and Magnus), he shouldn't even have 1 game at 100% engine correlation that isn't just theory, or just a few moves out of theory. Even if Hans was truly brilliant and played better than Stockfish or any other engine the engine correlation would be below 100. The only way to get perfect correlation is to play only what an engine suggests. I'm specifically stating engine correlation rather than accuracy because most super gms play at 80-100% accuracy, most 90% in classical. However even with that high of accuracy they'd still probably only have about 70% engine correlation. That's why the fact that Hans has so many 100% engine correlation games is so damning. His true rating would have to be 3500-3800 to achieve that, which is extremely unlikely because he would have won every single game he's played recently

[@joes9131]

@@chloegpt Wait until you find out how fraud is detected through statistics. Benford's law and Zipf's law have been incriminating enough when looking to see if firms have fudged up their numbers. And he's not just evaluating a "handful", it's literally all games from 2019 until now.

[@MC-ep8cu]

@@joes9131 yeah man, like you say statistics are not a "vibe" They are math. Math doesn't lie

[@stuartatkins5425]

You have made such a complex subject easy enough to understand by us non-chess players. Thank you.

[@tokeivo]

Be warned though, that statistics are not intuitive. While the "number of games played at 100% best engine moves" is a really important number, the "how many games in a row" segment was a very big "no no" in statistics - you can essentially "prove" anything by selecting the right sequence. It might be true that Hans cheated a lot in those games, but it also might not be. But it does prove that Hans is better at playing exactly like an engine, than any other player we've seen.

[@thenukeduke6949]

@@tokeivo it's not a statistical proof, it's just 'laymans logic proof' and that's good too. You would expect that someone who cheats in such a poor way (generating those 100% and 90%+ outliers) would simply sometimes be tempted to turn cheats on for a period of time. The fact that he has a streak is sort of convincing if you believe he cheated in the first place. It's not basis for cheating on its own, her math is wrong, but it looks like thing human did, to turn on cheats for 5 consecutive tournements, then turn it off.

[@tokeivo]

@@thenukeduke6949 that's... pretty much exactly what I said, isn't it?

[@JMUDoc]

I once got a 100% game - a six-move blunder on a Petrov defence.🤣

[@newt2120]

how tf did you lose in 6 moves? were you not watching the board?

[@JMUDoc]

@@newt2120 I didn't; the opponent did!

[@lrvz7187]

yeah I'm like 1450 in lichess(blitz) and i have quite a lot of 90% and even some 100% games, but thats because I get paired vs someone low that blunders mate on less than 10 moves and stuff like that, and also on the lichess % its counting opening moves, wich in this video they are not counted, so its not really "100%" games if youre just playing opening moves

[@basilenordmann7356]

only 39 more moves of perfection to be as good as hans!

[@_Nomen_Nescio_]

chessbase engine correlation accuracy is calculated completely differently than online websites obviously.

[@johnsor2083]

looking at Hans playing, I agree with Magnus, Hans was moving very fast in most of his games and did not seem to be concentrating.

[@Fred-tz7hs]

every good poker player is cheating by this logic

[@olivermeltveit865]

@@Fred-tz7hs Not comparable at all.

[@OompaL0ompa]

Maybe he is just better and Magnus can't accept that. And maybe he didn't had to concentrate because Magnus played one of his worst games ever on that day? I doubt all of this but who knows. Some people are not ready to loose versus certain people. They will not accept it and they will try to convince everyone that they are right. Like Donald Trump as an example

[@autosemimatic6071]

The idea that he didnt seem to be concentrating is dumb as fuck and is only barely half possible to kinda tell if ur playing him. Stfu

[@Stephen246666]

@@Fred-tz7hs This is basically the opposite of true. The problem with poker at the highest level is the excessive tanking and spending a ton of time on trivial decisions.

[@unisol17]

Can't wait for Hans' Dream-style manifesto from an astrophysicist proving he didn't cheat.

[@zeusthedrumlord547]

I was kinda waiting for someone to bring this up (not sure how much these two communities overlap but honestly it’s probably a fair amount). Both being “caught” with mathematics and probabilities and it makes for such interesting analyses. Dream’s case had pure luck but Hans’ case has pure skill involved and that makes it a lot less simple to analyze and put one simple probability on (like dream’s 1/20 sextillion odds)

[@abp1665]

then "noooo that wasn't really me who cheated my coach slipped anal beads into my ass while I was sleeping I was completely unaware of it !!!"

[@freyamiles3718]

@@zeusthedrumlord547 dream was caught by much more solid evidence. There are issues with the maths in this

[@-D_A-R_K]

@@zeusthedrumlord547 Dream literally admitted to cheating lmfao

[@superprofi4307]

"Oh, I forgot to remove my anal vibration system that I have installed" same as Dream " accidently" forgetting to remove some folders. I don't know if he actually cheated and this anal bead theory is very wild guess 🗿

[@MrThorOdinson]

What are the odds of someone who cheated in his RECENT past end up statistically being the best chess player in the history of chess 😅

[@elijahmitchell-hopmeier182]

Magnus found the beads

[@LostRed_Fox]

Hikaru: "I'm gonna find out I'm a bad chess player" *Me at 700 rated happy about my ladder mate*

[@Tech2Rush]

Ladder mates are good for climbing rating 🙃

[@Glowbox3D]

These new figures definitely sway me. I thought Hans was not cheating OTB, but after seeing all the 100% and all the above 90%…we’ll, the dude is a cheater without a doubt. The question is, HOW is he doing it!?

[@johnnybambam141]

So simple are you joking?

[@michaelgmeiner7449]

@@johnnybambam141 He's not joking. I also don't know.

[@vigilantestylez]

Some have speculated he used a device in his sock called "sockfish" which is a cheating device where they get moves from "Stockfish" in their socks via morse code vibrations. And can communicate by tapping a button in Morse code back to the device to tell the device the moves made on the board.

[@vigilantestylez]

You can see when they were waving the wand on Hans, he got nervous and started fidgeting when they were waving the wand by his feet.

[@Glowbox3D]

@@johnnybambam141 It's so simple, no one can catch it or prove it. Memes aside.

[@jonsirulesx9929]

For me the most interesting statistic is Hans' performance at the 2021 Third Sat Mix 157 (line 21 in the spreadsheet) where, apparently, he had computer correlations of over 90% three times in the same tournament, along with five very average (at least for a top GM) performances in the other six rounds. I am not saying this proves he is cheating, but it does raise questions. The National Open 2021 (line 29) also makes interesting reading.

The problem is that you don't compare Niemann results with the results of other players. It's sad to see that you believe this ridiculous video, that is filled with big methodological mistakes. Yosha's "analysis" has no value at all. She never compares Niemann's results with other players results. Carlsen and Caruana, for example, in their World Championship Match, were almost constantly over 95% accuracy, in each game.

[@janniknielsen9292]

@ He said correlations, not accuracy.

[@almezamorra1021]

wow, a lot of varsity players in my university kept calling bobby fischer overrated, but looking at the engine correlation in a Pre-engine era, I think he is better than most GMs at his peak.

[@umaxi96]

It doesnt even take into consideration that he didnt have computers to help him prep and analyse so then it would be even more impressive right?

[@SirJazz]

Hard to compare. Much weaker opponents back then.

[@polarbear9672]

It's only over 20 games, not over his whole career. If you look at 20 of the best games from Fabiano or Magnus they will be 85%+

[@polarbear9672]

@@umaxi96 The chessbase software doesn't take into account prep. Did you even watch the video? When Hikaru tried to analyze games that didn't have enough non-prep moves the software didn't run

[@umaxi96]

@@polarbear9672 so?

[@mglegacy012]

I wonder what the highest number of moves played at 100% is. 45 is insane to me

[@veni1]

well if you don't consider opening theory it's probably between 10 and 20, I honestly don't think anybody has ever played more than 20 perfect consecutive engine moves

[@EricM93]

it's obviously statistically impossible unless directly following an engine. Anyone still trying to defend hans at this point is pathetic.

[@Cchpi]

@@veni1 theory doesn’t considering you need to play the best move , if you play dragon perhaps is not the best variation for the engine and is done bye bye for your 100% or the order if you play c5 then cf6 , d6 no the same c5 d6 cf6 bye bye too that’s why is impossible to play 100% game

[@pablo-ww2ey]

Stockfish 15 vs Stockfish 13? They're cheaters 😂😂😂

[@cobalius]

@@veni1 rook and pawn endgames are very likely for doing those 20 consecutive best moves...

[@PoleVault]

Bobby confirmed GOAT

[@davidhoekstra4620]

Yep. You're the only one to isolate the most important thing we learned from this.

[@lrvz7187]

Its a known fact, you can analice a lot of bobby fisher games and he played like an engine, without engines, without a team, without todays "prep", the biggest talent someone has been at chess yet

[@cyb3rtooth199]

His opponents were much weaker than the opponents Magnus and Kasparov had to face.

[@alkiviadisfelemegkas7075]

Less strong opponents he had to face will probably do. If he plays against me all the time, he ll end up with a 100% engine-move correlation

[@lrvz7187]

@@cyb3rtooth199 it dosnt matter you still have to find best engine moves, and the "so strong oponents of today" are as well eating engine lines left and right, so its more prep and memorization than chess talent

[@ViralKiller]

If you can't join em, bead em

[@Mr.S_BuildsThings]

If hanz continues to defend himself against acusations of cheating, then he will either have to stop playing or continue cheating because the chess speaks for itself. He cant hide the statistics

[@ellasofiejohansen7051]

Stockfish iş ,Haced, ,

[@cjwarrington177]

I actually think Niemann's attitude during interviews is disguising the fact that he actually doesn't have an intimate knowledge of his own games. If you just say "your opening was bad," then you're excusing yourself from having to provide analysis. I'm willing to bet if an interviewer pushed Hans, he wouldn't be able to justify his own play with his own reasoning.

[@Dan-e8l7t]

Yep. Interviews are soooo suspicious.

[@susbedo9258]

The interview after he beat Magnus was even more suspicious and dubious. His explanation consists of miracles and feelings. No actual explanation or intention of his moves. In fact, at one point he "forgot" one of the moves he made.

[@mark030531]

@@susbedo9258 People like Hikaru are able to recall the exact moves that were played in OTHER people's games as well as their own. Yet Hans can't even recall a recent game in which he managed to win against the World Champion and one of the best-- if not the best -- chess players of all time?

[@gruen2006]

That does not mean anything (fixed grammar, thank you for pointing out) actually. Several great brains are well known not to be able to speak properly on the problems they have worked with. The mathematician Grigori Perelman who solved the Poincare conjecture is told to going to the whiteboard and rambling incoherently on something tangentially related raising eyebrows with "is this really the guy who did it?". From my behalf I would like to see more conclusive evidence of him cheating in Sinquefield than how he talked in the interview or Magnus' impressions

[@Lodzio20]

Thats exactly what happened when he said "I dont have to show variations" after sacking a piece xD.

[@desiGnampthia]

24:57 Most impressive thing in the entire video. he's looking away from the monitor and still placing his mouse on all the squares. impressive. Hikaru should play fps games.

[@corona1210]

We all know he cheated. What one must do now is recreate exactly how he "pulled it off" and we nominate you Hikaru!🤣

[@ncs9753]

The funniest part is how there are many people, who obviously don't understand chess, statistics, or math, who still think that Hans is innocent.

[@RassionellMaddman]

@@ncs9753 I don't get the proof that he's not just a genius player, like what I am gathering here is that when a genuine genius will show up he can be called a cheat and thrown out for his extreme accuracy (or her). That's just stupid.

[@zosoart]

Someone has!

[@benjamingoldstein14]

@@RassionellMaddman I think it also has to do with his behavior and the inconsistency of his play. Firstly, he has a track record of proven cheating in hundreds of online games. Secondly, he’s completely unable to provide analysis of his outstanding games, eg that against Magnus Carlsen. Finally, his OTB play is inconsistent, where some games he plays perfectly and others completely incompetent.

[@PerfectSense77]

Bobby Fischer's 20 game streak wasn't against worse opponents though. Seven of those games were against the candidates players of his era - the best of the best. That run of seven alone is comparable to Fabi's run.

[@javilin9669]

33 games which 10 games are 100%, the only explaination is that Hans is not human, he is robot playing perfect chess. 😅

[@isiahflores6275]

Or a being who can travel in time using only his consciousness.

[@Tight2008]

In Magnus statement he said that Hans wasn’t nervous and acted like he wasn’t even paying attention to the board and still easily outplaying Magnus. This is extremely bizarre. You have to work extremely hard and pay attention or your chess will be a disaster. Magnus has played 1000’s of games and the other chess players act a certain way. Hans behavior makes no sense at all.

[@Zeromus725]

What doesn't make sense to me is that if Hans looked unperturbed during the game, then how did he get so good at resisting the vibrations?

[@c1arkj]

@@Zeromus725 He was busy focusing on not getting an orgasm from the vibrations explains his distracted behavior.

[@captainzork6109]

@@Zeromus725 Ikr! All those girls who go in public with a certain something inserted make it look so hard to resist the vibrations

[@johncarson5436]

That's why Hans always says the chess speaks for itself since Hans would not be able to speak for it since it was not him that did the moves. If someone doesn't make the actual chess moves then how the heck can he analyze his own game without embarrassing himself. If he could publicly analyze his game with Magnus and it made sense then I would believe him that he did not cheat. Usually when you play a great chess game you are anxious to tell people how you did it, Hans was not anxious after his game with Magnus.

[@spacecadetrl]

It's definitely a big tell

[@nictamer8754]

Doesn’t mean anything

[@iyivanov]

​​@@nictamer8754it means that you did something because someone told you to do so and you blindly followed without understanding what you were doing 😂 Hans is so full of himself. Usually GMs remember their great games and can explain again and again after years how great they played them. Hans never does that.

[@tehhammer]

The insane thing about the Hans/Cornette game is Cornette scored a 77%, which is a crazy high score. To combat that with a 100% is completely bonkers. It's so much harder to find a perfect move when you're opponent is playing very well. Also, I saw chat claim Yosha cherry picking games, that wasn't games, it was the performance in the tournament as a whole. He outperformed his expectations significantly in 5 straight tournaments. Likely reasons are that he was underrated which led to him consistently outperforming his expectations (which is entirely plausible), or he was cheating.

[@iwersonsch5131]

Since you brought up the "cherry picking" claim, I'll repost my comment here. The calculation at 37:03 is, unfortunately, a perfect example of what happens when you don't counteract "p-hacking". What she calculated are the odds that if there had only been 5 tournaments ever, the ROI scores would have been at least these numbers in exactly this order. So she's ignoring the possibility that the ROI scores would have been e.g. 54.6 then 55.6 then 57.9 then 50.6 then 55.5 then 55.0. She's also ignoring the possibility that some of those ROI scores would have been more extreme while others would have been less extreme. So for example, she ignores the possibility of e.g. 58.5 then 54.7 then 55.8 then 54.7 then 54.6 then 50.5. She's also ignoring the possibility that Niemann could have played more than 6 tournaments with a slightly less high ROI, or that he could have played fewer than 6 but with an even higher ROI. And of course she's ignoring the possibility that Niemann could have played these tournaments earlier or later in his career. Once you add up all of those possibilities, I don't know what probability you would end up with but it would definitely not be 1 in 76000. To give a more obvious example of why her method of calculating the odds doesn't work: Say I flip a coin 100 times and it shows heads 51 times and tails 49 times. I then look at all 100 coinflips and observe the following: - On each flip that landed on heads, there was a 1/2 chance that it landed on at least heads. - On each flip that landed on tails, there was a 1/1 chance that it landed on at least tails (we're saying heads > tails here). So the odds of every single coinflip showing at least as high of a side as it did in my 100 coinflips are 1 in 2^51, which a 0.000000000000044408921% chance. So if her calculation was sound, you would be able to conclude that 51 heads on 100 coinflips would be a ridiculously suspicious amount of heads, which is obviously a nonsensical conclusion to draw. I can't speak about the engine move correlations but there will need to be a proper statistical analysis that is not made by someone like Dream's astrophysicist.

[@pierQRzt180]

@@iwersonsch5131 in other socials the proper chance for that ROI was calculated, independently from the order (that is, getting the ROI scores (or higher) in whatever order, 6 times in a row given 50 tournaments. The result was: it is about 1% (1 in 100) not 1 in 76000 . Would be interesting to compare to other players that are in a rising phase (Alireza, Gukesh, etc..)

[@Garbugpillil]

@@iwersonsch5131 definitely think I know less about stats here, but in the coin example you’re not comparing to the expected value of 50 heads but the ROI is on a normal distribution so it’s comparing to the expected ROI of 50 no?

[@tehhammer]

​@@iwersonsch5131 Yes, Yosha's analysis at that part of the video is horrid. I was mostly replying to Hikaru's chat that incorrectly said it was cherry picked games that led to those odds, because that wasn't what Yosha did. Yosha took a stretch of tournaments where Hans defied the odds and outplayed his rating by a significant margin. >>So she's ignoring the possibility that the ROI scores would have been e.g. 54.6 then 55.6 then 57.9 then 50.6 then 55.5 then 55.0. No, that's not what happened. Those were consecutive tournaments and you're changing the order, not Yosha (not that it changes the overall "odds" of that stretch anyway). >>And of course she's ignoring the possibility that Niemann could have played these tournaments earlier or later in his career. I don't think you fully understand the situation as those tournaments were played consecutively and were between July and August of 2021, so roughly a year ago. And the odds are determined based on his rating at the time. That's what that google sheet is all about. Your coin analogy isn't very good, either. It'd be like flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads 58 times (1:18 odds). Then flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads at least 55 times (1:5 odds), then 56 (1:7), then 55, then 55, and finally 51 times. To do that consecutively SHOULD raise some flags about whether or not the coin has 50/50 distribution, no?

[@peceed]

@@iwersonsch5131 Order doesn't matter! But it is p-hacking: she calculates probability that for some 5 randomly chosen games he can obtain that score, but these were his top performances from 100! But there are also prior assumptions for bayes reasoning, and for Hans there is : he is dirty.

[@roycraft6131]

Hikaru's best game ever was 420% with a bong cloud opening.

[@Jinryuushi]

The double bongcloud game with Magnus.

[@regzzuse280]

Beth Harmon: "I will popularize chess more then anyone!" Hans:"Hold my an@l beads!"

[@Climbby]

good one

[@ferguwat24]

Hahaha

[@thunderbolt6276]

😂😂😂

[@304Peter]

I'd rather not.

[@alvadojaime]

*plug my an@l beads! Lol

[@colorsofsound4782]

8:50 there is the argument that Magnus in the last 10 years has developed this play style where he plays a slightly less correct move around the late opening to early middle game in order to complicate the game or create inbalances, the evidence for that can be seen everywhere from the last few Tata steels and WCC matches.

[@LiFsWo]

The question isn’t anymore if Hans is a cheater but how he pulls it off.

[@jackengels5077]

Yeah how does he pull off those beads is a mystery

[@aniketprasad3128]

Bcz if you cannot prove that then he ain't a cheater

[@FoieGras]

​@@aniketprasad3128 No. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt. This is already BEYOND a reasonable doubt. The "HOW" isn't needed to establish that ..

[@aniketprasad3128]

@@FoieGras it's all circumstantial right now that to statistical. Statistical analysis can support or reject a hypothesis at best. Cannot establish shit. But yeah good for validation.

[@danielnery4054]

@@aniketprasad3128 "if you cannot prove that then he ain't a cheater" is one of the dumbest takes I have seen.

[@jerryren9319]

well... that's enough proof for me... Crazy how no one done this on the first day of the drama...

[@us-Bahn]

I’m sure it was done way before the game and the drama. The people in the know just didn’t bother to make a KZbin for us knuckleheads.

[@__Jesus_is_God__]

But it’s not proof

[@adamflores5027]

@@__Jesus_is_God__ CHECKMATE

[@jeremyrotenberg8426]

“Only from the end do you know the shortest way from the beginning”

[@jerryren9319]

@@us-Bahn You're right. People that are in the circle probably know a lot more for a long time. This is just one of the things that's now been discuss publicly.

[@ross.l8381]

Maybe he didn’t cheat, he’s just a human stockfish. Kudos to the player that lasted 45 moves.

[@dexio8601]

He is stockfish alright...

[@johnatlas12]

Stockfishy alright

[@MachineManiaOG]

I mean probably another cheater lol

[@sebaba001]

@@MachineManiaOG lmao he had an older stockfish

[@jort93z]

I mean... playing 45 top engine moves in a row is.... impressive, to say the least.

[@lepus1371]

@C prep doesn't go 45 moves

[@autosemimatic6071]

Pov: u dont know what prep is

[@umangabadal7700]

@C hans just know 10^123 position....more than atoms in the universe.....this theory makes sense

[@highertest]

@@umangabadal7700 Ofc brainlets like Magnus just dont compare bro xd

[@iAndrewMontanai]

@C you didn't learn the combinatorics, right?

Yosha has already stated on her own Twitter account that her method is flawed, maybe you guys shouldn't believe everything some random people on KZbin say, just because it suits your opinion.

[@Ayatron34]

If Hans is legit then he is *The One.* The one humanity has been waiting for to take on The Machines. The only one who can defeat Stockfish and Leela Chess Zero.

[@marianorivera3272]

We need to put him in a caged match against the world’s best fighters to see if he knows kung fu.

[@giordano5787]

I honestly think he's just using really advanced psychology to play the game, I used to play chess like that as a kid since I never learned the actual rules of chess just kinda of improvised (and I was surprisingly good at a game that no one literally no one teached me how to play)

[@CJmakesspedmemes]

@@giordano5787 just no. That’s not how chess works

[@giordano5787]

@@CJmakesspedmemes it is tho you just need to be hella smart

[@CJmakesspedmemes]

@@giordano5787 You can't just say chess is psychology because it isn't true. While it affects the game (People having stress etc.) that isn't what it is. I was never taught by anybody but I'm not stupid to say the game is psychologic

[@timoluetk]

I started doubting Magnus but thanks for getting my perspective straight for me. This is insane and as close to a proof one can get.

[@dfchang813]

Amazing how so many people doubted World Chess Champion, one of greatest of all time in favor of granting benefit of doubt to 19 yr old with known history of cheating, a coach and mentor banned for cheating, and cheated only 3 yrs ago. But okay whatever.

[@alphalance9408]

Don't doubt someone who's life consists of chess. Magnus wouldn't do this if there wasn't something fishy going on. I knew from the start.

[@dfchang813]

@@alphalance9408 anyone who just has any common sense understands this.

[@timoluetk]

@@dfchang813 jup you are the single smartest human in history and have proven your internet superiority

[@alphalance9408]

@@dfchang813 It's obvious that Magnus wouldn't just throw away his career and reputation for a loss. He may be special but chess is his passion and a man's passion is worth anything.

[@mrao514]

Even after memorizing 20 moves, none of them are reaching 100% correlation. Whereas Hans has already 10 100% games. Hans is a living legend.

[@us-Bahn]

And 23 games at 90%

[@hansdietrich1496]

I'm waiting for a ban for life.

[@Classified141]

@@hansdietrich1496 Well, you can go shit yourself until there's evidence.

[@noThankyou-g5c]

You can find tons of games at 100% It all depends on your settings. If you spend 10 minutes going through any top 20 player’s games you’ll find some. The person that made the video genuinely does not know what she’s talking about. Theres a reason chess base gives a big disclaimer that says engine correlation can not be used to analyze wether somebody cheated. It doesn’t have a clause that says that you can make an exception if the correlation is above 85% and you beat Magnus Carlsen

[@hatakenewt348]

@@noThankyou-g5c cool, let's see how many 100% games Magnus,caruana, hikaru,anand, bobby and Kasparov have combined in their career.

[@joelwilliamson3322]

This is not proof in the literal sense, but its near irrefutable evidence. I’ll be interested to hear what other GM’s think on this matter

[@ncs9753]

Fabi, Nepo, HIkaru, Levon, etc have all insinuated that Hans is a cheater already... it's not just Magnus.

[@Darth-Shadow]

Doesn't matter. Either it is evidence or it's speculation. All this is speculation no matter how you spin it..

[@sp33dou]

People have been put behind the bars with far less circumstantial evidence.

[@joelwilliamson3322]

@@Darth-Shadow this is evidence. It is not conclusive evidence, but it certainly is not speculation only

[@NathanLipetz]

So if he isn’t cheating (I think he probably is), this makes him the most accurate player in history? 😮

[@mikyonmars]

Yep by far the most accurate (for 5 tournaments IN A ROW)

[@MrThuggzBunney]

As of late, yes, according to this method (Not the only method of evaluating games) Hans would be the most accurate and possibly greatest chess player to this day,

[@KagirinaiYonaka]

Quite untrue, it not only made him the most accurate player EVER but also made him more machine than human.

[@therocker3024]

This is the evidence. There is no "Probably he is"

[@EricM93]

@@therocker3024 thank you. It is remarkable some people are still trying to defend hans. 45 moves at 100% accuracy is enough, let alone 23 other games lmfao

[@AxSeyffert]

“Garry Kasparov at its best… 69% very nice” 😂😂😂

[@himanshu4938]

72% for Fischer is for only that 20 games. However, Magnus's 70% is maybe his best run (maybe considering all games over a period of time).

[@umaxi96]

Fischer didnt have computers and less theory to look at before and after games

[@himanshu4938]

@@umaxi96 That is why he is one of the greats :)

[@argo8141]

Not a chess player but I enjoy watching the game and also learning about it low key when I have time. I admire your social grace and sportmanship. I'm a fan.

[@Ae-xx3kb]

No human can have a 100% engine correlation score, (edit: in a game with over 10 moves), what everyone is focusing on is the "100% accuracy" which is completely different, you can make many moves that the engine doesn't consider and not lose any centipawns (because they don't worsen your position) so you can keep your (100% accuracy) for as long as you do that- but 100% engine correlation means your moves match 100% of the top engine at the time (in this case, since it was on the Chessbase 'Let's Check' feature, it is the most powerful Stockfish at the time). Yosha explains that no one has been able to do that before even in one game, no human being. The highest score before Niemann had been 98% by Sebastian Feller in 2010, who was famously cheating and got caught. "100% engine correlation" simply means flagrant cheating; there's no way around it. And Nieamann has it in numerous games, not just one.

[@ryanrodriguez7664]

Someone said in the stream chat that magnus has a 100% correlation game aswell.

[@adriendebosse6941]

Arjun has a 100% game, but it's a 11 moves games, not a 45 moves games

[@LuisManuelLealDias]

@@ryanrodriguez7664 of course he has, just check his rapid vs Hans. 3 moves, 100% correlation.

[@isasadiqov7721]

Well below 15 move game 100% correlation probably possible. 45? No fucking way.

[@Ae-xx3kb]

@@adriendebosse6941 ty for correcting me- just makes hans look even worse lmao

[@didyouknowthat.channel]

I appreciate you slowing the video down and pausing it to take time to explain it to us chess plebs. Thank you, Hikaru!

[@chillarypuff]

Agree!! :))

[@dexocube]

chess plebs unite!

[@a3-radio]

what people are not getting is that Hans can see the spirit of a chess grandmaster from 1000 years in the past and he started by letting him play but as hans got better he took over, so his amazing games is when he lets the spirit take over hikaru of all people should know this

[@Jordykill1997]

So he’s the chess avatar?

[@_Thorondor]

This is the plot of Hikaru no Go 😁

[@Fluxion11]

Hans can summon the spirit of grandmasters from 1000 years in the past and 1000 years in the future simultaneously. The question we should be asking: Why doesn't stockfish agree with Hans 100% of the time?

[@controldeleters]

He's better than Stockfish, therefore the correlation isn't 100%.

[@Person01234]

I'm pretty certain this would count as cheating.

[@sushinfudoshin8991]

Hikaru: "Ooooh this game is putrid, I played like a 26** player"...all the 26** players out there start re-considering their career's choice 🤣