Jim Rickards: We're Looking At A Global Recession

Jim Rickards returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.
In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "Supply Chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of "a college of nations."
Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times.
Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.
0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out"
0:54 View of the global macroeconomy
1:37 The supply chain is the economy
3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains?
6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences
12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare
13:24 The future supply chain will look very different
14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were
20:00 Supply Chain 1.0
23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans
30:24 National security and geopolitics
33:48 A college of nations
39:00 Peak China
42:00 Inflation
47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation
49:49 Disinflation and deflation will prevail
51:12 Severe recession
52:24 Fed making a 'huge mistake'
1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare
1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?
1:07:40 Asset allocation
#JimRickards #investing #macro

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! Thanks for watching and providing feedback. I read all of your comments and guest suggestions. Keep them coming, and be sure to subscribe for the latest interviews. Grateful for the support. ☺🙏

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Biggest lesson i learnt in 2022 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

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[@somejohndoe3004]

Supply chain issues remind me the famous Carl Sagan quote: "If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe".

[@gregb2]

I swear Julia manages to get the most diverse group of interviews. Don't know how you do it but hope your channel grows. Its hard work, stick with it and have fun with it. If you feel stress take a small break and refresh. Thanks Julia.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you, Greg. This means a lot. 🙏

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@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow I know your name more from you tube, because I do not watch cable media. (haven't for 10 years+). I get most my information from podcasts, direct interviews like this, aggregate news sites, etc. Good for you for branching out!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

@@gregb2 🙏🙏🙏 Thank you again! Glad to have you here.

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[@somejohndoe3004]

Really like the timestamps in the description, that's always a big plus when there is one. Good work !

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Glad they're helpful. Thanks so much for the feedback 🙏☺

[@paolosburner5880]

Time stamps are awesome, agree 100%

[@haldriver1378]

Great interview, Julia! I have Jim's new book on the way. You couldn't get a better guest than Jim!

[@paolosburner5880]

Julia this long format stuff is great, you are killing it, hope you get more subs as the channel gets more notice. It’s finally starting to show up in my suggested after watching videos. Thanks for all the hard work, u rock

[@twistedbydsign99]

Fantastic Julia you are doing a great job!

[@angelarivera7034]

You’re doing a great job, second time I watched, & subscribed! Love the format and informative question style. Thanks!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Angela! Really appreciate your kind words. 🙏

[@jklov8590]

holy shit totally blown away by this man gonna buy that book!

[@jimuren2388]

I love listening to Jim. A great storyteller and great at building a narrative. I've seen him criticized as predicting financial distress too frequently but I don't care. In the Econ world you have be Chicken Little to get attention.

[@dangaines405]

Great interview Julia! And great insights from Jim (as usual). Will be ordering his book as a Christmas 🎁!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Dan!

[@lrww5673]

Loved it. Great info. Thanks to both!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much! Glad you enjoyed the conversation.

[@huangdingdong]

Just discovered this channel and I think you're doing great! Keep going, a lot of your guests will help it to grow, I appreciate your hard work!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much! Glad you're enjoying the content. And I really appreciate your kind words, Huang. 🙏

[@pamdemic7848]

Pure gold! Thanks Jim.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thanks, Pam!

[@gaetancharbonneau3902]

Great interview. There is something to learn everytime Jim Rickards is on. However... the end of the world type of predictions ends up getting exhausting at one point. In fact, it makes perfect case of simply holding indexes, since very little gets predicted right.

[@atb8660]

It is important to remember that while people like Jim are worth listening too the global economy is more complex and less predictable then global weather systems. Often people get the right prediction but for the wrong reasons or the wrong outcome but they had really solid reasoning to back it up. I think Jim makes some excellent points but we will see what happens I do think that diversification is good take away advice, I like stock and real estate plus 401k cash, high quality whisky.

[@SirJamesDTech]

Good interview and great questions. I got a lot out of this.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, James! I'm glad you enjoyed it. And I'm also glad to hav e you here. ☺️

[@minhajkhaled7827]

I read the book I must say he did a great job explaining the supply chain to me. I was a small business owner now I explain this to my customers which have a better understanding of why we’re having shortages.

[@paolosburner5880]

Going to drop this video into discords and group chats, this podcast episode and long form channel needs more notice IMO

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Paolo. That is so kind of you.

[@pmstff700]

Best Interview ever I learned so much. Thank you!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you 😊 🙏

[@Rob_K699]

Really good questions, Julia!!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thanks, Rob! 🙏🙏🙏

[@Justajawnie]

First video I watched from you and I watched every second. It was excellent to hear Jim Rickards outlook. One question I have is why he thinks that a deflationary scenario is impossible to get out of. Once all the bad debt is liquidated wouldnt there be a normalization where the deflationary environment naturally goes away, the same as he mentioned the inflationary environment tends to eat itself after a certain point. I always hear these economic minds mention how bad deflation is, but they never explain why or they resort to doomsday scenarios. I would love to hear more on it.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you, George. And that's a great question! I'll use it in a future interview with Jim.

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Great interview...thank you!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you, Fubar! ☺

[@MamekwaDonald]

I think this Russia crisis has taught people the importance of multiple streams of income. Unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security rather having different investment is the real deal. Understanding institutional investment is the key to success speculating in the financial Market, When it comes to Crypto, An investment in knowledge pays the best interest and also finding the best strategy that suites you. I make huge returns on my investment since I started trading with Mr Thierry Veilleux, His skill sets are amazing. It is good to work hard but better to work smart. >

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[@ericknaus4998]

Just got my copy!

[@steveosmonson6535]

W/o devaluing the $ against Au, how would deflation be "turned around" this time?

[@hkimakh]

This channel is growing fast. Good interview

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hope so! Thank you, Hicham. And please feel free to spread to word. I'm trying to build this from the ground up. ❤️🙏

[@WHAT_KAYN]

Great job. A lot of good information.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you, AbdHamid! ☺️

[@hkmorhsi]

He was correct on most of his predictions btw. He predicted insanely accurately the interest rates, the 10 yr treasury, the supply chains, the markets thinking of Powell Pivot but didnt, global recessions.

[@steveosmonson6535]

Good job!

[@randolphschreiner4479]

Julia, you do a good job. Kudos.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Randolph! 🙏🙏🙏

[@muskduh]

Thanks for the video!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

You're welcome! Thanks, Glenn. ☺️

[@mikefry5704]

Great vlog great advice. Enjoy

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thanks, Mike!

[@alko6420]

A gentleman genius!

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️ WOW very interesting history as I have been building my history of money and politics on my homegrown KZbin channel. Great content from Jim Cheers Frank G 👍

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much! Glad you enjoyed it, Frank!

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Just a window of Frank G age 68 Melbourne Australia Not in finance ! Still run a small business fixing washing mashines for AEG self employed contractor and also run a "Self managed super fund" for myself and my wife. And now the "KZbin Channel" because of the pandemic "The Privite Detective" of money ! ! for myself Hell YES ! but not to monetize but share the channel infomation with others . learn how to be a better manager of money so on a learning curve. You are my future for Both of us ! ! PS only 55 following me but that is 55 more people that can learn to manage money and i am OK with that . Cheers Frank G Melbourne Australia

[@130bowman]

What about BRICS?

[@danoneill2846]

thanks

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

You're most welcome. Thanks for watching!

[@henrynielsen4766]

Jim 🐐

[@phatster88]

Sold Out is sold out, because it talks about disruption in the supply chain

[@DmitriVolov]

This guy wants to be right at least once during lifetime, like broken watch. He gets old but nothing he predicts becomes true.

[@koltoncrane3099]

That’s interesting. Jim is essentially saying Brazil and India will leave the BRICs. Like sure China isn’t democratic but their neighbors with India and Russia can give them energy. Maybe Jim is right it could go the opposite way with India and Brazil Mainly trading with the BRICs and only a little with the west in the future. Sure China is genocide and has human rights issues. But look at the U.S. who doesn’t have a leg to stand on. uS reported they killed 500,000 kids in iraq and said it was an acceptable sacrifice. Like Putin is committing war crimes, but people should not be naive. The U.S. committed war crimes in the Middle East. It’s just they control the UN so whatever they say goes. Watch the movie official secrets how a British woman released classified documents or an email how the nsa wanted Englands help to blackmail the UN. She was arrested but the court was dropped cause in court documents would have shown England’s position or policy which was against the war or something and would have opened them up to war crimes cause englands participation or their view was the war was illegal for some reason. It’s a great movie official secrets.

[@koltoncrane3099]

Remember there were no WMD. Like gerald celente says the U.S. overthrew Lybia and iraq cause they wanted to sell oil in gold or euros.

[@koltoncrane3099]

He mentions child labor in the Congo and China supporting that. Like hello. The U.S. doesn’t care either about children working in mines. A cobalt mine wanted to start in Utah and was instantly sued and it never got going. It’s much better from a green US perspective to support child labor in the Congo rather then do the right thing and have mines here.

[@koltoncrane3099]

This begs the question why does the U.S. have the right to blow up taiwans chip manufacturing plants if China invaded Taiwan? Are those plants owned by the Taiwanese government or are they private property? If China invades the rich Taiwanese that owns the chip manufacturing plants what are they just going to move to Arizona? It seems the U.S. doesn’t care about taiwan simply just what they produce. If the U.S. cared about taiwan then after WW2 when China was taking over Tibet and expanding in other places the U.S. could have forced china to recognize taiwan as a separate country but they never did. Even though it was the Us that helped China fight Japan. Like a rational person would have thought fighting China after WW2 say 1950 would have been far better then fighting them in 2025. It’s like let’s build china up and then fight them. And in countries with democracies or elections over time you can buy your way. Taiwan could vote to join China and then the U.S. literally would be screwed. Haha it’s like the U.S. didn’t do nothing with Hong Kong. It’s weird powers agreed Hong Kong would leave Britain and then I think over 50 years merge back with China. Like why did the U.S. think taiwan needs independence but then let Hong Kong return back to China? Hong Kong has elections and is pretty westernized. A lot of things don’t make sense.

[@koltoncrane3099]

He mentions how when he bought a home it actually was good cause real interest was negative. A lot of people say bankers were racist back then and discriminated. That was probably true, but imagine being thrown in jail for drugs in the 70s while inflation was raging. When people got out they were way worse off as they got screwed by inflation and didn’t benefit from it. So inflation can be great for those with income that can acquire assets but it sucks for others. Jim says this coming deflation and recession can be bad. Well for those with assets yes. But imagine if you’re a millennial and haven’t bought a home yet or were priced out the last two years. Deflation is GOOD for them. There’s winners and losers so it’s not all bad or good.

[@jimuren2388]

Yeah Trump put huge emphasis on building strong ties with India, Brazil and Israel. The Biden team has dropped that focus. Israel has no where to go but Brazil and especially Saudi have drifted.

[@polcaltieri]

But Jim how did farmers sell soybeans to Netherlands if EU banned GMO products? It makes no sense. I'm still waiting your 2021 transitory inflation.

[@fugly75]

It's been 10 months, what happened to the recession?? The markets are screaming higher.

[@enriquelopez7277]

Then it would be: * 10% Gold. * 30% cash (to buy stocks in the ruins). * 20% Treasury notes (bonds?) for 2 or 5 years, * 20% Real Estate (not commercial by now) and * 20% invested in Energy stocks (Oil % Gas) am I right....or close at least?

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

yes

[@erikolsen3017]

Pretty sure I’ve already seen this interview on your channel. True or false?

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

This is a new one. Taped it yesterday.

[@yngvesognen1092]

The very old and other vulnreables should be protected, and everybody else get cheap early treatmenet.

[@nlbooks6614]

siffius does it itch or burn... hilarious 😂

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Food is a Supply Chain item, that has lost the ability to question the producers. When Farmers grew food to support the People around them, we were capable of understanding who was feeding us. Now food could easily become Soylint Green, and we appear to be helpless to stop the marketing forces from feeding us.

[@sinOsiris]

all about lockdown whether doable/ not the critical think is ----

[@flavius22]

Who is left to sell if everyone is bearish? Like too many cooks in the kitchen lol

[@erbterb]

The problem with the depression definition used here, is that it assumes a theoretical growth trajectory. It is similar to saying you can prove vaccine efficiency only if everyone is vaccinated. It is a false hypnotic statement, creating a short circuit into the left hemisphere, as described by lennart green in his famous card set. There is no more growth, as we are going into the second law of thermodynamics in 2023. We went from an erect oil discovery century, into a limp green energy future. Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. The menopause of economic phases.

[@MrDurcon]

Allow you the “space”? What language is this?

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I've noticed that a lot of hosts and anchors will interrupt a guest before they're finished making their point, and I'm happy to listen for 15 minutes before asking the next question.

[@ianharley1726]

I'm sorry but this is overthrowing to what could be possible. A lot of stuff trading blocks need being to the trading blocks they prefer not to! Minerals, energy, medical, nitrogen etc. Australia avoided recession back in 2008 only because it had coal and iron ore China needed! Not some intelligent planning by its govt. Canada has vast resources of tar oil & shale gas that it sells despite its green agenda! Otherwise it'd be close to bankruptcy. As for Europe it's has been heavily dependent on cheap oil, gas & fertiliser from Russia as well as cereals & grains. Alongside is the manufactured goods from China. Textiles, vehicle parts, metals, uranium, cobalt, lithium, steel products etc etc. 80% of Europe's tomatoes and garlic are from China! Hence the deep recession about to send a shock wave across the whole of Europe that has debts that are out of control. Decoupling from globalisation will take as long as it took to have this global supply chain once Russia and China joined the WTO. 10, 20, 30 years? And a lot of pain along the way in which the replacement energy does not truly exist. Blind men walking down a dark alley at night!

[@carlsitler9071]

No Jim. Energy is the economy. Without energy, there is no supply chain.

[@sbain844]

14:04 Let me tell you what is also coming - MASSIVE budget deficits that the govt will be forced to print money to cover. That doesn't end with deflation!

[@leinad5243]

Get Roubinni on....Dr Doom

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Nouriel is coming on very soon! Thank you so much.

[@leinad5243]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow 🤯👀

[@sjatkins]

Blow up the highest density chip plant on earth?? Complete and utter madness and it would set the world back tremendously. It will take 2-5 years to duplicate those plants and get them to full productive capacity. This is a BIG DEAL.

[@arouse6140]

Thirty comments counted yet 112 entered. Supply chain issue? 😂😂😂

[@jimuren2388]

China needs to try non "vaccine" pharmaceuticals. Vitamin D, Zinc supplements for starters.

[@dahirukabiru672]

Mrs. Jane is legit and her method works like magic, I keep winning every week with her new strategy.

[@amineaiffa]

You would think after the 5th book people would stop buying this guys literature. It's the same old rehashed material. OH MY GOD... YOU DON'T SAY??? A RECESSION IS COMING???? Damn, I won't believe it until this guy writes book number 78.

[@Ironboots123]

Well let’s get on with it, the recession. Tired of hearing about it 😂

[@joycekoch5746]

Jolly Tymes in China right now.

[@gregorysagegreene]

Wow. The only thing that interrupted this energizer bunny, at 14 and a half minutes, was an ad. Sure has got some lungs on him. Is she gonna' get some questions in ... ? Maybe one, then let him rip again. The thread that keeps on pulling, but beware the point that gets lost in the pile of wool on the floor. Smart, insightful guy, but needs someone to conduct that orchestra so not all the instruments play at once. Peter Zeihan's thesis on Post WWII Globalization instituted by the U.S. as a security check against Russia fits in neatly here, including Trump seeing the writing on the wall and being ahead of the curve in kicking off it's reversal and unravelling, starting first with China in 2019. Again, the 'Bloc' concept seems borrowed from Zeihan, although Peter is much more specific about the distinct geographies and resources dictating what the separate groups are compelled to do post Deglobalization, where the U.S. is it's own fortunate center and becomes the hub to it's own club of Western and Regional friends, while the rest of the World breaks up, regroups into disparate alliances, and deals with the scraps left now that the U.S. won't guarantee global Maritime shipping security nor the ability for these now isolated countries to procure any product or input from anywhere as they had formerly been able to do. It's not just China here that will have to deal, even though that's the mainstay and driver of this reorganization. Countries like Germany will have a big problem too, merely because the U.S. has left the old game. So Peter Zeihan's thesis is much more detailed and comprehensive than anything that Rickards is implying here. All that having been said, where Rickards shines as a prodigy is on all things Inflation, Supply (Macro, not GeoPolitical), Demand, the Fed, and Recession. That is his genius, and what I listen to as much as possible whenever he comes out and make these prolonged pronouncements. By the way, Zeihan has his Achilles too. He makes statements about Inflation and the Federal Reserve, and about Worker Availability (with respect only to Demography) that either show a lack of understanding of Economics or of Contemporary Contrarian Indicators and Behavioral Reactions by the People to either longstanding or recently External yet Unfavorable macroeconomic structures. Funny how we're ironically going back to Gold at the end, with Deflation, when that's what started it all, with Debt, 40 years ago.

[@paulgame7098]

Jim has got inflation completely wrong this last year or so.

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[@georgeheyden4524]

I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It's huge returns is awesome! I can't say much.

[@SamEbby]

Dude look like a evil bond character

[@robc8468]

How does the EU, UK, and China not have an actual depression while the rest of the world has a recession?

[@dinosgura]

Eu is going to enter a recession in 2023

[@gregmijjares3725]

Try using the correct word,. Depression and it will be world wide!

[@jjolla6391]

no discussion about Russia splitting off with China and BRICS+ ?? Russia is the one country that has all the resources

[@yngvesognen1092]

China has problems but is not in decline. The US Empire is in decline after having sqandered many trillions of USD on useless wars. Empires are alwys too costly and collapse eventually.

[@huna1950]

Real estate 🤣🤣Jim’s always right but sometimes 20 years out

[@scott6612]

This guys makes sense but don’t buy any of his services as they are spectacular money losers. Every Nov and Dec option expired worthless. His discussions make sense long term but he puts you in options that don’t have enough time. His timing is awful. Good luck!

[@easterntechartists]

what a hypocrite! before all this he was talking of hyperinflation, now deflation. a broken click is better than this guy

[@dannycai386]

this guy knows nothing about geopolitic.