CIA spy analyzes Vladimir Putin and the War in Ukraine | Andrew Bustamante and Lex Fridman

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Andrew Bustamante is a former CIA covert intelligence officer. Check out his work and podcast at everydayspy.com
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[@KnightOfSerbia1]

At 9:48 you used the term "the whole world". Keep one thing in mind. "The whole World" is not NATO

[@SchultzDorinda]

NATO is a minority in terms of world population

[@HyzersGR]

There are very few countries that are directly assisting Russia invading Ukraine. Iran and North Korea. There are a few other countries that are taking advantage of Russia by purchasing oil and resources at a large discount, namely China and India but they are not directly aiding Russia in the war.

[@morgana2006freemail]

@@HyzersGR Maybe you should join some East European and Balkan groups to see what people think of this conflict. South America does not care and a lot of African countries are on the side of Russia. And you should do some research what purchasing US from Russia too, not just uranium...

[@eragood1]

@@HyzersGR Recently, Emanuel Macron threatened to send French troops to Ukraine to fight against Russia. Guess who became the largest buyer of Russian gas in EU this year, overtaking Hungary? That's right, France :) You can threaten Russia very loudly in front of the cameras, but at the same time quietly and without loud statements conduct business with it

[@lisaisabella182]

NOBODY SAID IT IS!!!!!

[@zaven22]

I'd love to hear how this guy feels about his predictions now.

[@teqexe]

russian is winning, and you clowns getting dumper day by day.

[@jamesgornall5731]

It's probably the same

[@peterbedford2610]

He's working on being s three time loser. He's not credible anymore

[@christopherbain9165]

His opinions would be the same. Vladimir Putin is a great leader, who has patience, and doesn't let himself become unfocused by rage, like the little pissants of the stupid ass club of worthless politicians called NATO. Glory to Russia!

[@Wasev]

I've love to hear him now. The guy is such an idiot 😅😂

[@ronaldrio7950]

Ukraine is winning according to western media 😂. Russia is marching on. Ukraine is winning on social media while Russia is winning in real life

[@ThatLad685]

Definitely not winning in the way he said they would though.

[@amerali2058]

It’s funny reading the comments after 1 year

[@SIMONREMISH]

why

[@TannerCoIin]

​@@SIMONREMISHHumour is subjective

[@lukahitrec2438]

because winter came, and nobody even flinched, not even the Germans

[@OreoBambino]

@@lukahitrec2438 Yeah, no one froze to death like the guy predicted. But most people lowered the heating temperature in fear of massive bills. This resulted in mould on walls for many people. Also there was a massive price increase on food and other necessities, making it hard for low income households and pensioners to afford enough food. The gov additionally putting up to 50% tax on necessities like electricity or gasoline, to fund the excessive CO2-neutrality-program and the overburdened welfare-asylum-system, does not help with the situation. People are fed up, society and unity seems far less stable compared to a couple years ago. Election results reflect this as the two major parties (who usually got >40% each in the past 60 years...) now struggle to get more than 25% of the votes. Radical parties (left and right) grew from negligible numbers to double digits. Of course, many bad decisions in the past decade, not just the situation with RUS, added up to that state of things. Still the RUS situation noticeable adds to the destabilization.

[@fredsiwila7636]

This guy is still working for the CIA and he is doing just that what is required of him. Information and misinformation that's all

[@archilzhvania6242]

Can we bring this guy back and ask exactly the same questions now?

[@davidwalker8778]

Same thing would be said. What do you mean. Russia can easily win this war if they wanted. They’ll win but do not want to destroy the place

[@archilzhvania6242]

@@davidwalker8778 Hahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhah Hahahhahahahhahahhahahahha

[@walshmabob2]

​@@davidwalker8778 mate, Russia had to get 400,000 prisoners on the front line. They are losing land to the current counter offensive. They weren't able to take any more land than they took. They failed to take Kyiv. They said the war would take 3 days. Millions of smart young people have left Russia. Yeah sure, they could just nuke the place but we could always win the war and just nuke Russia first by that analysis.

[@im-W]

​@@davidwalker8778😂😂😂

[@surtivmak4715]

@@davidwalker8778🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[@andrewstrobert8938]

"Ukraine is a pawn on the table" ... 100%

[@Glados00663]

This thinking from school of realism got us to the cold war, and multiple pointless conflicts. Ukraine is Ukraine people, and they have right to do with their county whatever they want to.

[@tatianalyulkin410]

Define " Ukrainian people ".

[@Glados00663]

@@tatianalyulkin410 everybody who have ability to vote in Ukraine elections.

[@MrJones0207]

no "it will become one of the democratic nations that the 21st century is remembered by" despite being wiped off the face of the earth lmao. We've got 75 more years to go, if its remembered it will be because it almost started WWIII

[@sergeypashenko3]

Lol Zelenski is a piece of 🖼️… dude is a good beggar!!! Russia all the way baby!!!

[@bradyoung7848]

Joe rogan: talks about DMT all day. Lex: Talks about Putin and Hitler every episode

[@smokeylebear1062]

Joe is a man with daddy issues who seems to have successfully dealt with by the assistance of drugs and Lex has Russian and Jewish roots so it kinda makes sense why they often bring up these topics

[@freeindeed13]

When Putin & Hitler took DMT thay had visions of Lex and Joe committing genocide.

[@realestism]

No no let’s talk about Leopold and Columbus

[@tatianalyulkin410]

Well, Lex is a Loyalist. What do you expect him to do- support Donbass?

[@petunized]

@@tatianalyulkin410 He will be banned from utube, if he ever dares. =)

[@corycherrier4743]

“Hearts and minds are a luxury”…One of the realest things I’ve heard in a very long time!

[@ID1visor]

Hearts and minds just sounds utopic and socialist. It's about practicality. You can either be practical, be a cult of personality or both.

[@Erik-ey7jh]

Disagree. Both Russia and China invest heavily in securing hearts and minds. They do it with a propaganda infrastructure that democracies can't deploy. As a result, both Putin and Xi have broad public support. Hearts and minds are not a luxury, they are a necessity.

[@conorredmond6217]

It's essential.. not a luxury His claim that it's a west idea is brain-dead beyond all belief.. all leaders must capture hearts and minds for any sustained control.. He does not appreciate the power and importance of propaganda in delivering hearts and minds while simultaneously being cunts

[@secretsocietyreveal]

Putin's approach is Machiavellianism, which means he'll find a way to gain favor later through manipulating his people. He, definitely, doesn't care about winning hearts and minds now.

[@Saucebawss]

Actually it’s just a different threshold of the same sentiment that applies to China/Russia etc. If China feels the need to violently quash rebellion in HK, it’s the same theme at work. It’s just a much higher consequence and intensity version. You can argue with the term, but the concept applies anywhere where grassroots change or revolution can occur. Which is arguably everywhere.

[@ГрецкийОлег-щ3г]

It's so funny to read comments of people who heard this man talk about military strategy, then waited for like 3-6 months, didn't see the results and went ape shit , without realising that they mostly just have proven his point about not needing hearts and minds

[@thea6573]

Yeah some of them cannot handle the true, soon reality will hit them hard. And only thing there can do this dream on just say everything gonna be fine.

[@CrimsonAlchemist]

Russia is winning one year later

[@neildear-wn9eo]

. I agree.His Economics of war are spot on. He was intelligence not military, so ppl are being a bit harsh imo.

[@word2mouth518]

somebody explain to the girly man with beard that _winning_ and _corruption_ don't mix. You either winning or there's chaos, because that's what corruption translates into.... what a bunch of knuckle-heads! This is a Sh💩ite show! 👎👎👎👎👎👎

[@pulsefire3467]

Bro The entire WEST is giving Ukraine tons and tons and tons of weapons, also training and giving them intel 24/7

[@gngr2]

Does that justify an invasion

[@BubblegumCrash332]

Just enough to grind down the Russian army but not enough for Ukraine do a major counter offensive. The US wants Russian stuck in another Afghanistan

[@Beardgame]

@@BubblegumCrash332 more money in it that way for the war machines.

[@พฤหัสบดี-ฦ1ว]

@@gngr2 did the Invasion of Iraq have any justification? The bombing of Belgrade in 1999, the shelling of the Gaza strip...some background and perspective, some accuracy in reporting, raising awareness on the propaganda machine on full steam on both sides, I'd say that guys speaks things that need to be heard.

[@gngr2]

@@พฤหัสบดี-ฦ1ว yes, if you opposed the invasion of Iraq, as I did, you should oppose putins invasion.

[@faye5329]

When are you going to interview Col Douglas McGregor or Scott Ritter?

[@joanmikeska8484]

Well, Scott Ritter is a convicted pedo, so I hope never. He literally just got out of prison in the last 10 years for trying to meet up with young girls (like 13 online) over and over and over. It wasn’t like he was 18 and his girlfriend was 16. This was not that long ago. He is no genius and he can’t be sane. I don’t think a lot of people understand this about him, and I don’t trust anything he says anyway. Some people will try to defend him, but the guy was convicted and imprisoned with proof. If I was him, I don’t think I would show my face. He has also been paid by Russia to make commercials. I am not trying to be ugly to you though. I was just looking at comments, and I saw yours and thought I’d give you the heads up!

[@jayvincent8860]

Great question!! Maybe he doesn't want to hear the truth. They give a better assessment than this man. He is close but not as accurate as Scott Ritter.

[@tatianalyulkin410]

When is Lex gonna develop the cajones to interview me? Or the Brotherhood said " no "- once and for all? 🤣

[@CaptainKingOrca]

The white supremacist who has been wrong on every single prediction and the convicted sex offender who has been wrong about every single prediction 😂

[@markjankiewicz2949]

Where is Scott Ritter and Macgregor? They must be watching kiddie porn , the chosen past time of Ritter .

[@ddlmytwat]

Lex: hearts and minds matter Spy: money and energy matter ✅

[@lilze]

It’s less than a month and his predictions for Ukraine are laughable. Odessa by September, Moldovan border by the end of the year! Since then Ukraine have surrounded Russia in Kherson and stormed through Kharkiv.

[@mackbedunduk1305]

@@lilze only fools who laugh while the war does not yet end and have its true winner as result.

[@mackbedunduk1305]

Spy: money and anergy matter (according his ex-boss)

[@lilze]

@@mackbedunduk1305 I didn’t say anything about a true winner?? Bustamante said that Russia would have Odessa by fall, that is a laughably shit prediction.

[@games4us132]

Einstein: energy and space matter 👌

[@asmosisyup2557]

People worldwide lost their "hearts and minds" the moment they ran out of toilet paper. God knows what those same people would do if it was food/gas/power at stake. It's most definitely a luxury for those who are at no risk themselves.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

My father was in Germany after the war as a photographer. He showed me a film of Hamburg. Or maybe it was Berlin? Anyways, was taken from a plane that flew really low with a speed of a couple of hundred kilometers. That's 130 miles. The movie lasted half an hour and during that half hour there was nothing but ruins. Ruins and ruins and ruins as far as you could see. But people still lived in the ruins. Shops, theaters, cinemas. Schools, factories, busses, trams. Apart from everything being ruins, the city were alive. People had no heating, very little power, everybody slept in their cellars. And still they were completely unbroken. Everyone had believed in German victory until the very day they surrendered. And even those who understood the war was lost, still were determined to fight on. That is why I don't believe the Europeans will give in even if Putin turn the gas of completely. It will just make them angrier.

[@keithmichael112]

that's a really good point, I really worry about what will happen if something actually serious happened

[@beardly0121]

Almost every male in my family works for power companies in some capacity. Many of them are lineman, dispatchers, IT professionals, etc. All I'm going to say is that you have no idea how susceptible our grid really is and if we faced a determined adversary we could have some really serious issues. That said I think people and indeed society are stronger than we give them credit for. I know the world is strange in this futuristic year of 2022, but I still believe in the soul of mankind and I believe we would come together in the event of a real emergency or attack against us.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@beardly0121 Yes, our leaders and especially the leaders of our enemies, who tend to despise us, tend to expect us to break easily. But that didn't happen during the blitz in London or not even in the much, much worse blitz by the allied on Germany. Didn't happen in Saint Petersburg or Stalingrad either. Didn't happen in Tokyo or any of the other large Japanese cities. When people do give up, is when they understand they really have no chance and their enemy can just pour it on forever. But if they believe they have even a small chance, they will "take it on the chin".

[@dannydandaniel8040]

Oh thanks for saying that. I've been trying to make this point for years, even before the pandemic. Ppl have very little perspective on how the rest of the world lives, now and historically... We RARELY ever see times of peace with so many human rights and resources available to us.

[@RitamBuchwald]

The CIA guy kept saying he had all these data points, seemed kind of vague about them to me though. Also I think pessimism may seem like critical thinking but I think it's a trap a lot of intellectuals fall into because it often seems like a negative outcome is a safer thing to bet on, whenever something good happens it's usually a surprise and no one saw it coming. I think many people have a tendency to magnify on the worst elements of our nature and overemphasis those traits, when in reality people are much more complicated and dynamic then that, and things can change very quickly and without warning.

[@PBz0r]

You're absolutely right. Cynicism easily passes as intellectualism. Andrew's full of it, the "data points" he actually shares are mostly incorrect or prove the opposite of what he's saying. He also claims the Russians will conquer Odesa without artillery before the fall out of nowhere, then says there's only a 60% chance Russia will win the war, and hey, "winning" takes many forms, and anyway, in his mind, they're already winning right now! So I guess he's just covering his bases. 😂

[@nathanmorgan3786]

@@PBz0r If he took a billion dollars from the taxpayers and gave it to drug dealers in Venezuela during the interview he would actually be the full embodiment of the CIA and their capabilities lmfao.

[@elektrotehnik94]

This ex-CIA schmuck (Andrew) is so uninformed about Ukraine-Russia situation I’m ecstatic he’s out of CIA - his lack of in-depth research & generalization. Like, at every step of analysis. It is only eclipsed by Lex’s “I float in clouds” blind optimism.

[@RitamBuchwald]

@SlimJimLim I'm actually curious what are the data points that look like a Russian victory is immanent. With the aid of the US, insurgents kept the Russian's busy for years in Afghanistan before the Russian's finally decided cut their loses and leave. So far Russia has sustained massive casualties in Ukraine when you compare the two conflicts, also Putin already has a shortage of professional troops because he doesn't want to call this an actual war which would allow him to begin mass conscription. If he is backed into a corner and decides that he has to reclassify this into an real war so that he can get the man power he may need very soon that could be politically very dangerous for him. The Russian people are going along with him now, but once he starts sending Russian sons to go die in a conflict the Russian people don't fully understand that could begin to create factures in his grip on power.

[@maxokream6269]

This guy would run laps around you mentally. He understands power in every form and I would listen to what he has to say

[@justintimeforbass]

Clear to see Lexi’s bias in regards to Ukraine’s dire situation. Emotion over logic. Sad situation.

[@CrimsonAlchemist]

Yep he was pretty biased on Ukraine side. That other dude was right all along

[@jakobalbrecht7]

@@CrimsonAlchemist Not really, the russians have not made a lot of progress in the last year or so.

[@bobanrajowic]

I’m Polish working in western Ukraine now as a journalist. This guy says a lot of things that reveal his cluelessness about the real situation in Ukraine. He predicts that Russia will take Odessa by the fall. It’s the end of august now, and the frontline has been stalled for 6 weeks or so. He says that Ukraine is receiving almost nothing from the West, but will pay trillions of dollars (!!!) for the weapons it is receiving now. Don’t you see the contradiction here? In reality, Ukraine hasn’t yet received anything under Land lease act that he’s referring to. The weapons in amount of ~15 billion dollars were supplied as an “aid”. He says Russia will occupy the South and East of Ukraine, while Zelensky will have to step down because he was too much anti Russian, so he will be substituted by some pro-Russian puppet president. How can you imagine that without occupying the whole country? Nobody in Ukraine will voluntarily agree on a pro Russian president. That’s how things work. He says “Putin will not use artillery to shell Odessa, because historic heritage of Odessa is important for russian culture, so Russians will just come to each house and kill everyone without damaging buildings, just like they did in Mariupol”. That’s a whole new level of cluelessness. Mariupol was bombed and shelled like no other city in Ukraine, 90% of buildings were destroyed. Historic heritage, russian culture, are you serious? He says “Ukraine has a chance to win if oligarchs in Russia organize a coup”. It’s a 1990s stereotype about Russian oligarchs. They have zero influence in todays Russia. If somebody can organize a coup, it’s only the Russian security services. He says that Russia desperately needs Ukrainian agriculture, and that’s the economic interest of this war. Well, the whole Ukrainian agricultural export revenue is about 10-12 billion dollars per year, while Russia has already lost ~350 billion dollars only in frozen Central bank reserves. It’s crazy to believe that this war can be in any way economically beneficial for Russia. Dude, just take a calculator and do a cold calculation, like you say you do. And finally, the guy says that information warfare in English is intended to influence English speaking Russians. What a BS. There are just several million of Russians who speak English, nobody cares about them because they decide nothing both in Russia and in the West.

[@bigter88]

Great post! Andrew must be either completely clueless or a bought and paid for Russian shill. I'm guessing just clueless.

[@rg7535]

I think he was proven far more right than you.

[@suthelast]

@@rg7535yeah, russia took Odessa just so fast and effective and… of no, it fucking didn’t. It didn’t take anything since than in fact. How in your brain is this guy more right than the commentator?

[@rg7535]

@@suthelast No, they didn’t take Odessa but they did hold on to all the land they had taken in the South and East of the country, and crippled the Ukrainians, which is the essence of what he was saying, and the opposite of what the msm prognosticated.

[@cspdx11]

Its December now. How is Ukraine doing now?

[@loufancelli1330]

Wow I need to watch the entire conversation now. I give Lex a lot of credit here, he got some very blunt information that is contrary to what he wants to hear and he didn't shut down or go into attack mode, he maintained his typical "probe with questions" approach, while admitting he wants a different outcome. I guess I should have expected this, but it reinforces what a great thinker and interviewer he is. And he lets us see his heart, without letting that get too in charge of his head. Great clip and I am heading to the full conversation now.

[@uzpower]

Serious he was so butt hurt u didn’t see him shook up

[@danielfoster9782]

This indeed aged well. Andrew Bustamante is a bit off with his assessment.

[@timgrant8729]

Lex is always open to different views. That's why I love watching his videos. He takes his time and evaluates what the person he is having a conversation with is saying and what the point is that's being put forth.

[@yuriypr72]

It's early October 2022. Just wanted to hear this guy comments on his prediction back in August that "by this fall Russia will take Odesa". Not exactly what is happening, is not it?

[@Blashmack]

They're progressing in the East but the South/Odessa is not happening.

[@blade_monstababy9945]

Do a follow up interview now

[@fyngolnoldor4891]

I don't understand what Bustamante is basing his assessment on. The Russian advance is pretty much a crawl, and this is without having to siege major cities such as Odessa. I do not see how they could conquer the south all the way up to and including Odessa in basically 2-3 months. Furthermore, Odessa itself is way better fortified than Mariupol. And by the way, the ONLY way Russians were able to take Mariupol was by essentially bombing it to the point where it's a smoldering ruin. If, as Bustamante says, they wouldn't use that strategy in Odessa then I truly don't see how he expects them to conquer the city. I also don't think the support given to Ukraine is NOTHING. I agree that the support could be much better, but it IS making a difference. Even the power to hit Russian bases, supply depots and so on at a distance behind the frontline is an amazing advantage to have. Not to mention whatever that hit in Crimea was, not even sure how Ukrainians accomplished that exactly but it looks like they took out a bunch of Russian airplanes on the ground. When Bustamante says there's no economic benefit to the West to support Ukraine I think he's extremely wrong. I get the argument about the US, a country sitting an ocean away from the conflict. However, if Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine he will not stop and proceed to exert military control over Moldova and, if necessary Belarus thus becoming considerably stronger and more dangerous over time. This would directly imperil EU member countries as they will now share a direct and large frontier with Russia as well as suffer the consequences of waves upon waves of refugees from all those battlefields.

[@abc-eq9so]

They don't have to take Odessa its enough to take the shore around the city or more specifically north and south.

[@viktoranton]

its called war of attrition

[@daveg9000]

He didn't really know what he was talking about.

[@rup3rt75]

You can tell this guy is a former intelligence officer, his analysis has been proved to be completely wrong, with UKAF counter offensive. He says taking Odeca will be no destruction and street to street fighting, like Mari-U-pol, does he even realise what happened there, it was largely destroyed?

[@monicamclarenn7790]

And the fact that he is allowed to go on record is a sign that he never knew much to begin with, meaning they weren't afraid he would leak anything. This guy was probably a toilet cleaner at Langley

[@TheEthanOBrien]

When I first saw this clip I thought maybe I was deluded, but the more I thought about it, the more I came to think he's on a payroll nowadays as a mouthpiece. This is stuff they'd push on Russian TV shows.

[@steinhvik4380]

@@TheEthanOBrien It is. Its almost impressive how little he knows. Especially regarding the development the last 48 hours with the Ukranians kicking ass all over.

[@Love4music77]

Perhaps you mean, he still is and have the job to manipulate citizens.. because the elites are getting exposed, people are waking up (slowly) 💪. Yess Ukraine people know exactly they re leaders are Nazi s just like the most western leaders

[@yareddejene462]

Don’t be quick to judge. 😂

[@gradydavis251]

An interesting conversation. One of several things I'd have to push back on is the idea that autocracies - particularly China - don't "need to worry" about hearts & minds. I might say it's that they worry more about "Controlling" hearts and minds than "winning" hearts and minds & have additional avenues of domestic control which allow them greater leeway to do one thing while saying another. Ruling parties in autocracies always seem acutely fearful of potential revolt and work harder than most other governments to suppress "unpatriotic" narratives. On an international level, countries like China and Russia expend an enormous amount of time and effort disseminating their talking points & propaganda with the goal of winning hearts and minds abroad.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

Yes, I totally agree. Totally. Of course you need to control the population. For a dictatorship, the population are your tool. And yes, autocracies spend an enormous amount of time and effort to control the population. And, as you say, not necessarily to win them over, just to control them. I wonder if the Russians regret they dropped the polical commisars?

[@dually81]

"Ruling parties in autocracies always seem acutely fearful of potential revolt..." Case closed. And if you heard his opinion on Snowden, along with this take on authoritarians... it reveals everything you need to know about his worldview.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@dually81 Please be a little more specific. Who are you referring to?

[@dually81]

@@peterrumspringa9757 the guest, Andrew Bustamante

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@dually81 I meant who said the quote? If that also were the guest, he contradict himself.

[@cristianr3712]

Lex.... you might want to search what's the Azov battalion, who's Bandera and check the comments Ukranian hosts were making in live national TV saying the people in Donbass should leave and that they were not Ukranian back before the Maidan, this is not new, if you check all that saying it's Na-zi it's not that far fetched.

[@Aquamayne100]

I love the contrast between Andrews perspective and the perspective of Lex. 30:17.

[@MotivationClipsChannel]

Haven't watched the entire video, but the lend lease act doesn't put Ukraine into debt - If something is destroyed, it's automatically written off, after the war Ukraine can return all the equipment that is not destroyed OR they can buy it from USA, which is a lot different than putting a country into debt.

[@Fireinthesky67]

To this I would add, what is this debt in comparison of a partially destroyed Ukraine or even worse a country taken over, occupied and colonized by Russia again for many decades with all what that implies regarding the population, freedom, economy, etc ? To me, this part is laughable. And actually seems even quite weird at many levels that kind of consideration comes from a former CIA spy.

[@Salvara]

If Russia wins do they have an obligation to return the gear/pay the debt Ukraine accumulated?

[@MotivationClipsChannel]

@@Salvara Unfortunately I don't know that part, never even thought of that

[@coderentity2079]

It took the Brits paying back the land-lease 65 years and you saying they just had to return the tanks to avoid it? You are so funny. Please take a look at the current 54bn loan's structure, how much of that is for weapons and for what else ukraine needs to pay for. Eye opening stuff.

[@MotivationClipsChannel]

@@coderentity2079 Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Please read about the lend lease act. "The terms of the agreement provided that the materiel was to be used until returned or destroyed. (...) Supplies that arrived after the termination date were sold to the United Kingdom at a large discount" "The Lend-Lease agreements with 30 countries provided for repayment not in terms of money or returned goods, but in "joint action directed towards the creation of a liberalized international economic order in the postwar world."" "Britain wished to retain some of this equipment in the immediate post-war period. In 1946, the post-war Anglo-American loan further indebted Britain to the U.S. Lend-Lease items retained were sold to Britain at 10% of nominal value" The debt Britain paid was exactly for keeping the items and that was a new loan, which was set to be paid over 50 years, not that they needed that much time. And it was paid off in 2006, just as agreed, instead of 2020

[@Fireinthesky67]

I'm sorry but this guy present some incoherence between several points (the winning part: all depends on what the initial goals were. If they failed, there's no winning. If we just talk about territorial gains, in that case Russia wins, but does this mean Russia will be able to occuppy such a large portion of Ukraine ? I strongly doubt it if we look at what happened in the Donbass region after 2014. But anyway, this is not the end of story, the war is not over. The lend lease act during WWII was exponential as well, meaning slow at the beggining and fast and decisive at the end) and especially doesn't seem to understand what happened in the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine. The only way for Germany to be again supplied with fossil fuels from Russia is that Putin must win. This doesn't make sense. Although we can surely say that Germany was in the first place reluctant for many explainable reasons to not be able to fully supply Ukraine with military equipment, the only way Putin would be left to win, followed by negociations, would be a regime change in one of the major countries in the EU, in France it would be with the far right or far left taking the power; they are pro Putin. Or in Germany, with a collapse of the coalition. At this moment, after the many massacres in Ukraine, the way things are now it is quasi impossible to go backwards and talk to Putin like nothing happened to make an agreement and let Ukraine loose a large part of the country. And even in this case, except Russia of course, the only country that can really decide whether this war has to stop or not it is the USA. They are the only country to be able to supply Ukrain with such a large amount of military equipment. No other country can do that. This means that Germany will do what the USA tell them to do. And I can add, that still on the political level if one of the major western countries in the EU, had today the idea to make an arrangement with Putin in th back of Zelensky, I can tell you it would be the end of the EU, and therefore the end of german economic power. The east and west europeans within the EU would just break up on that point due to the history towards Russia of their respective countries.

[@ckettering]

this man is very quick witted but, perhaps as a consequence, the sum of what he is saying lacks coherence, in my opinion.

[@atomicmoog1219]

It's not about military equipment, once the money stops flowing to Ukraine the end of war will be near. Initial goals were clear from the start: demilitarization (neutralizing Ukrainian armed forces) and denazification (removing right-winger loonies from governing structures).

[@RegTarg011]

CIA spy would never say he's a CIA spy >.>

[@archerzzy]

he quit a long time ago

[@idkwhattousehere1]

@@archerzzy not been off grid means he was not doing dmg so nobodys after him or they are giving him protection and lives in hideouts,right?say that from the ideea that agent may just mean,middle man for dialog sometimes?

[@1984sarajevo]

Above all, a CIA agent would never express his political opinion. Let alone talk about democracy and independence. That is completely irrelevant for a CIA agent. 😂

[@lexp504]

@@archerzzy hes a recruiter

[@Smak778]

I like how he analyzes things and yet all his “assessments” and predictions are wrong….. I don’t know what to say 😂

[@jo18533]

How are they wrong?

[@MichaelJordan-fp4ih]

@@jo18533bc they’re wrong. he said things would happen by the fall. it’s the winter and those things haven’t happened.

[@jo18533]

@@MichaelJordan-fp4ih such as..? I mean, do you honestly think Ukraine, even with all the money and equipment it gets from the West, can defeat Russia??

[@Mr_Weast_FM]

that's why he left CIA too early

[@lochagosachilles8221]

Agreed. Really poor assessment (just reviewed it). Not sure if this chap was a field officer or an analyst. Either/or, his AO was South America or suchlike, definitely not CEE, and a Slavonic expert he is not.

[@LukeKyleWalker]

Odessa by fall is a very bold prediction which is nearly impossible

[@DaCashRap]

Looks like his next assignment from the CIA handlers is to gather intel while working undercover at a surf shop.

[@dianalee1589]

well this aged well

[@TennesseeMethuselah]

Lol...

[@CLlNT0N_BODYCOUNT_RESSURECTED]

It did. Russia has never not been winning. Ukriane is destroyed. They have no one left to fight and no army. One of their most famous mechanized bridgades is now an infantry bridgade cause of all the loses

[@musicaddict9058]

Lil bro thinks Ukro natsees are winning lmaooo, stop watching CNN buddy boi

[@danieIlondon]

Russias winning so he was right

[@AndresParceMiami]

@@danieIlondon the Russians stink like desperation now 😂

[@hello12229]

"War is a terrible thing. That is a quote..." - Andrew Bustamante 🤣

[@freestylebagua]

With geniuses like this in our intelligence services what could go wrong?

[@cream2257]

probably nothing, but having people ignoring the truth because itll hurt their fragile feelings will create quite a damage

[@peterrumspringa9757]

I take your comment to mean that you think he is an idiot? He really is. He claims to be a spy, walking around with a t-shirt: "I am spy". Really not very discreet.

[@Hoaxzey]

@@peterrumspringa9757 He's retired lol.

[@paulzoom489]

First I was a CIA contractor and let me just tell you being in the CIA doesn't make you an expert on all international issues, i doubt this guy was ever in Russia. This guy is way off base, how has Russia won anything? 40k dead 1/3 of it's equipment destroyed embarrassing blows against it's navy and top generals, a new 800 mile border with NATO in Finland. Take Odessa by the Fall? lmao they are about to lose Kherson if anything. If oil prices continue to fall their economy will also be in real trouble, selling all that discounted oil to china and india won't be feasible anymore. So is Ukraine winning the war? probably not a clear victory but Russia isn't winning either.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@paulzoom489 Yes, I totally agree. He is way of base. Actually, I think he gives the word "wrong" a new and deeper meaning. I simply cannot understand why so many answers praised his analysis. Maybe because people do not consider what was actually said, and just notes how it was said.

[@palasta]

3:55 Ehh.. Goergia is a country of four million. Ukraine has ten times as many. One major discrapancy no intelligence would miss. There was no miscalculation. There certainly is a missing puzzle of information to have a complete picture. What can be said for sure, Putin was running out of time. Ukraine was drifting ever closer to the west, and out of Putins reach. I strongly believe this is all there is to it. Whether the war will go well for Russia, or not was secondary. The geostrategical importance of Ukraine (for Russia) can't be highlighted enough. Putin doesn't care about Sweden and Finland joining Nato in the bigger picture.

[@ikkezelf599]

Why did Russia never act wen the Baltics joint you think. I mean if Russia is anxious to have a NATO member at their door what about 3?

[@elenaelena7955]

@@ikkezelf599, Baltics are also in EU and are actually in first hand controlled by EU, not by NATO. Baltics will do whatever EU is telling them to do. And will never do anything that EU do not want them to. And EU do not want any big crisis with Russia. Or actually any crisis at all. US an UK want, yes, but not EU. So it is in EU's interest that Baltics would not be any big threat to Russia. In differens from Ukraine which is controlled by US who is most interested in instability in that region. That's why Russia do not really care about Baltics nor Sweden or Finland.

[@eurobeatboy6352]

but they did it to ukraine and it did work once, thats the point. Just didnt wok this time.

[@soundslight7754]

@@ikkezelf599 Those Baltic countries didn't join when Mr Putin was in power. The USSR was imploding and they had bigger fish to fry, even they must have hated it

[@peterrumspringa9757]

I do not believe that Russia is really afraid of the former East block nations. What he want is the old empire back. The Russian Empire. Just look at the guards uniforms and the general decor of the interior of Kreml. The soldiers look like Disneys toysoldiers.

[@dwoodward931]

It appears that Andrew's "assessments and calculus" of the Ukraine invasion comes off too smelling of his personal political beliefs rather than actual empirical data that he keeps trying to claim he is going off of.

[@marchielli]

I think that he has a professional deformation that leads him to the biggest mistake of every side of the conflict - hugely overestimating Russians, and state of their army/weapons. He is so deep into the rabbit hole he actually believes Russia is playing some bigger game here. Dude drops the ball the moment he tries to claim that reassessing a grand war plan 3 times is totally fine for an army and Russians have it under control. You have no idea how much bribery is going on right now to sound those opinions, he either fell for them because for years he has been afraid of russians professionally, or he's straight paid/blackmailed to say those things. Every time I question somebody's opinion I remember the quote that "Propaganda is designed to put doubt into minds" and his 'opinion' does sound like that, I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's doing it unconsciously/without malice.

[@peetky8645]

he did give the ukes a 20% chance to win. that seems about right to me.

[@cagribaba4464]

@@peetky8645 Assigning such a chance, or any chance is clowning. What does %20 mean?... If they fight 5 times, Ukraine wins?

[@mango9cloud]

@@cagribaba4464 No that means every time they fight there is still a 20% chance.

[@happierabroad]

I agree with Andrew that one should leave the USA. I left the USA in 2006 and my life has been much BETTER and FREER. Better social connection, lower cost of living, more fun, friendlier girls, better dating life, better social life, better mental health, etc. Most expats who leave America never want to come back. That should speak volumes!

[@samwise1790]

Anyone else pick up that the guest has a delivery/intonation/cadence/word choice that is a little Joe Rogan-esque? If his voice was a little different he could do a great impression

[@296jacqi]

He could, but he’s too arrogant to pass as Joe Rogan. It would seep through his delivery.

[@creekfinds]

100%

[@Guapo10292]

The certainty with which this man passes his opinions as fact is obnoxious

[@watersports1381]

More obnoxious than the opinion of a youtube rando? Shut up and keep your thoughts to yourself

[@ES-zx6zj]

Agree

[@296jacqi]

Maximum obnoxiousness. Arrogant.

[@coderentity2079]

Hey, but your opinion is obnoxious. Now what?

[@ES-zx6zj]

@@coderentity2079 your name is obnoxious so it cancel each other out..

[@eos538]

The front line has largely stalled and this guy thinks they are going to take Odessa by fall with more advanced weapons continuing making their way into Ukrainian hands. Seems highly unlikely.

[@eauegh7660]

It hasn't largely stalled. You have a false impression of the situation, the Russian army is not concerned with taking land as fast as possible, it's trying to eliminate the enemy force before gaining territory in a battle of attrition. Weapons delivery to Ukraine is making a very negligible impact on the battlefield.

[@Azago99]

@@eauegh7660 yes it has, I’d recommend watching a few videos about the war by Anders Puck Nielsen

[@eos538]

@@eauegh7660 not sure if I'd call the damage from Himars and other western missile systems "negligible" but keep telling yourself that.

[@nektarsolne4niy804]

@@eauegh7660 russia is bombing civilian cities lol. Wtf are you smoking. They’re doing the scorched earth strategy with no actual battle planning.

[@ManoMonikas]

I agree that taking Odesa is unlikely at all. Taking Odesa by fall is laughable. I will get back to those comments in fall to prove

[@tattvamasi5717]

Keep in mind, that this was his professional assessment, not random thoughts. Btw I think the decimation of the Black Sea Fleet probably played a role in the grain-deal, but Im not a CIA spy.

[@MinecraftMasterNo1]

"The first casualty of war is the truth." - Otto von Bismarck

[@i.c.wiener2750]

This is undermining the fact, that Russia's media was a propaganda tool of Putin even way before any war. There is no free press in Russia and there are more than enough evidence from before the war that Russia's media is lying constantly. So by using that quote of Bismarck you are trying to bring Western media down to Russia's level.

[@MinecraftMasterNo1]

@@i.c.wiener2750 The fact that you think big media isn't towing the government line in the west just proves your ignorance lol. I'm not bringing anything down. They were there in the first place.

[@i.c.wiener2750]

@@MinecraftMasterNo1 "I'm not bringing anything down. They were there in the first place." And that's where you're simply wrong. Western media is not as bad as Russian media.

[@MinecraftMasterNo1]

@@i.c.wiener2750 That's like saying one piece of turd is better because it's slightly less smelly lol. It's all shit at the end of the day, You can keep coping thinking you're somehow more informed by believing in the media if you want lmao.

[@Sally.A.C]

Gosh, this hasn’t aged well!

[@AndersLiljeblad]

Lmao.

[@kdubs9111]

This is a man from the same agency that lost to the Taliban

[@joshgulrud]

"I wear dreds, trust me bro."

[@billyherrera9187]

Seems like an interesting guy, but thinking the same as a lot of comments. I didn't comment about my disagreement because I figured, "hey what do I know, he's in the CIA, I'm not." Glad that others here are thinking that he seems at least half way wrong.

[@milesb2111]

I was under the assumption all CIA know how to do is sabotage and start wars. Didn't know CIA agent's had military or battle experience at all lol. I wouldnt take this guys explanation of this war seriously. Looks like he sits at office all day at the CIA lol.

[@yedoin]

So you feel the fact that some random people on the internet support your narrative is a good sign that you are right and the intelligence trained dude is wrong? Seems like this western propaganda he talks about is working quite well with the average population. You ever noticed how there is only ever severe russian losses in the news? Ukraine mysteriously never seem to loose a single tank in this war, at least i have never seen coverage of any losses, only massacred civilians in the streets due to russians. How have they not taken back their country yet without any meaningful losses? Man it just is like..we don't get the full picture through our news, but hey what do I know.

[@billyherrera9187]

@@yedoin You couldn't be more wrong. Still feel like, "hey what do I know". Still giving this guy his credit due. Just surprised that others that thought the same would actually post it knowing full well that there would be some keyboard warrior like yourself waiting in the weeds to bestow your knowledge on the rest of us dullards.

[@coderentity2079]

You decide on truth by counting other's opinions? Do you gather reasoning or just using sheep mentality straight up? Counter argue please.

[@billyherrera9187]

@@coderentity2079 you obviously didn't read my reply to @yedoin. Or maybe you did but wanted to follow him along. Thanks for participating.

[@peter.g6]

6:48 Does he really think if Russia takes Ukraine the sanctions will be lifted? He is just so wrong on so many points it's unbelievable.

[@michaelcarney6280]

Russia is doing great at the moment the Ruble is the best it's ever been and the sanctions have back fired on the west especially the US and UK

[@alehou7406]

What if you are wring?

[@ldpr4915]

Russia doesn't want to take Ukraine. It wants to chop it in half to end Ukraine's civil war. Russia can only successfully annex the pro russian parts of ukraine, because they much prefer living in Russia.

[@peter.g6]

@@michaelcarney6280 LOL Ruble is not even traded on exchanges and Russian companies are forced to convert 80% of their foreign currencies to rubles. Ruble is dead right now.

[@michaelcarney6280]

@@peter.g6 wrong anyone buying oil or gas has to pay in Roubles get your head out of the MSM arse

[@RadioactiveSaddam]

This didn't age well... Odessa is still free.

[@tatianalyulkin410]

How dare you talk about " free Odessa " after May 2, 2014? And Volodya and my brothers are monsters???

[@salmz0hr]

Well, this aged like milk

[@hatimaheddar2411]

It actually aged like fine wine!

[@Omevoc]

@@hatimaheddar2411 He literally said they'd take Odessa all the way into Moldova before the fall of 2022. It's now 2024 and they still don't have full control over Kherson oblast let alone Odessa or Moldova. Edit: He also said that people all over NATO were going to freeze to death because they are so reliant on russkie gas. You are very incorrect.

[@hatimaheddar2411]

@@Omevoc I don't think the russian ever stated their goals. But even if they did, being wrong on timing is very normal in military affairs. All that matters is they are winning the war, and Ukraine's military is probably close to complete collapse. They had a chance in March 2022 to avoid all this mess, but they went along with the west.

[@Omevoc]

@@hatimaheddar2411 They did multiple times. We are also talking about this person's view not Russia's. Their military isn't even close to complete collapse. Well, they had a chance to become a russian puppet state and they absolutely refuse to, understandably. You are lost

[@hatimaheddar2411]

@@Omevoc can we keep this discussion about the subject and not throw meaningless words like "you're lost" Ukraine didn't need to be a puppet state of Russia, it just needed not to be a puppet state of the USA and be neutral. Are you Ukrainian??

[@Maxim6431]

It's funny how a person can be so convincing and so wrong at the same time, taking Odessa by fall, sure, Russia is winning, right, I guess it's such a special sort of victory we are not able to compehend

[@oscargiovanniruiz8344]

Odessa before the fall of this year? Lol

[@infoseeker9151]

Excellent interview, especially in light of the Tucker Putin interview. Can you schedule another interview to update your audience relative to the Putin interview in contrast to this interview and to assess where things may be headed. I wish I would’ve seen this before the Tucker, Putin interview. Thanks again. Keep up the good work and the dialogues open and going.

[@alexkhimiak7901]

Well this guy seems to draw the right strings in the wrong way. In example - Land Lease is not a real debt for Ukraine, the only prerequisite is to return the equipment that is still intact AFTER war is over.

[@elenaelena7955]

Why would US give Ukraine weapons for free?

[@amc3463]

Exactly Ukraine is getting our extra supplies of armor that we have sitting around while we make more it's just a credit card for them even if they make small payments they will be just fine America won't let Russia take Ukraine in fact Ukrainians are getting trained on f16s right now in the U.S a10s ,f15s ,f16s in our bases

[@alexkhimiak7901]

@@amc3463 exactly, that is my point, geopolitics are above mere economy

[@alexkhimiak7901]

@@elenaelena7955 well, try retrieving your check off Afghanistan now. You got to bet the right horses in geopolitics.

[@slightlyscary1742]

@@elenaelena7955 The US is paying Ukraine to deplete the military resources of Russia, who is China's ally. U.S. does not care if Ukraine wins or loses, only if Russia loses.

[@bpitotbrett5839]

Great conversation Lex! (Get a nicer pen, dude). This guy is smart analytical but I don’t think he appreciates hearts and minds. They topple governments at some point. They were very helpful leading in to D-Day (French underground). They are a pain in the rear to ruling powers and can reach a tipping point. Ruling classes can put down skirmishes but when they all act at once (Sri Lanka) they (ruling class) flee. This conversation is how we used to exchange ideas and politely disagree. No one yelling and talking over each other. Great conversation.

[@peterrumspringa9757]

He really isn't. "The Russians will take Odessa with infantry because they do not want to destroy historical buildings in Odessa." He obviously has not seen any videos or photographs of Ukranian cities.

[@jeffreyschnedar8020]

He looks really young as well. Youth, especially today, are looking at short term and instant gratification. Listened for awhile but he isn’t explaining how Russia is winning hearts and minds in Ukraine or how the manpower shortage will effectively control territory. So I guess he missed Vietnam and many other situations. Occupation on the scale Russia is doing takes time to succeed or time to fail. Way to early to say he won and its a matter of time.

[@brettvaughn1058]

@@jeffreyschnedar8020 agreed. Russia lost Afghanistan. We lost Vietnam. Rome eventually lost everything. Tactically we were winning Vietnam but politics, civil unrest, and draw down of money and men ended it finally.

[@ezr6969]

@@jeffreyschnedar8020 he's in his 40s

[@AIainMConnachie]

"I don't know how such deep corruption can yield such good results" Dude forgot what his high school teacher said: You got the right answer using the wrong premises

[@simritnam612]

Lend Lease Act ?! What if there is NO Ukraine left to pay the bills ??

[@mostevil1082]

It's just called that because it came in on the Russian victory Day. It's not loans. This guy's up to something else.

[@amc3463]

We gave the Russians 11billion in ww2 to defeat the nazis they paid us off like 50 years later 😂🤷‍♂️ Ukraine will be just fine even if Zelensky gets killed it will be the next man up Ukrainians will never surrender the whole country is Mobilized

[@Steve-bc8el]

While I respect the man's opinion, he was proven incorrect about his asssesment of the battlefield, which makes me doubt everythign else he says about Russia's stauts in the war.

[@JoelEmmettMcGarrity]

He wasn’t though.

[@jaemate21]

@@JoelEmmettMcGarrity Russia is withdrawing from Kherson,the man was dead wrong,stop the cap..

[@MrFunasty]

It is odd to watch this after a month. It seems like his Russia-winning scenario to unlikely to be materialized 😊

[@Coldpi3ce]

Eh Russia is just now comitting to taking the war serious like he is saying. Just in time with a winter outlook on pressuring the west to require resources

[@jkeezy93]

Oooof

[@DHEspana]

Yeah I'd like to see a followup interview with him in a couple months

[@ThievesInTheTreasureRoom]

His observations were largely incorrect/flawed even at the time he made them.

[@HiddevanGelder]

@@ThievesInTheTreasureRoom they seemed to be contradictory in ways as well, he seemed inconsistent in the way hey believed this conflict would work out. I wonder if he's aware of that and if so if it's on purpose

[@pinetree9343]

Andrew is a super rational dude

[@vger9186]

Any strong man leader surrounded by yes men is not in control of anything but his own bubble.

[@s.a.n.6967]

does the russian minister of foreign affairs seem like a yes man to you?

[@vger9186]

@@ignoreme1141 Agreed, which is why anyone who worries they will do anything nuclear related is misguided. MAD exists and protects us from that because of the greed built economic systems that keep all these countries in such power positions of wealth.

[@vger9186]

@@s.a.n.6967 Squirrel! (just distraction and appearances)

[@JayzsMr]

You have to tell me how countries worked for centuries ruled by one guy

This didn't age well

[@happierabroad]

The US is lending money to Ukraine? I thought they were giving it to them? The US media doesn't say that. Where does he get that?

[@nathanbingham3204]

He's full of crap. They're just barely starting to do this now

[@igorpupkinable]

I cannot believe you did not know that. All of “support to Ukraine” is a dirty deal. President Zelensky said openly in one of CNN interviews, something along the lines of “Give us more. Ukrainians will work hard to pay it back.” It was on CNN. You can also search for Ursula von der Liar explaining the “future reconstruction of Ukraine”. Basically similar plan as in Iraq. Guess which corporations are rebuilding infrastructure and other stuff in Iraq and who is benefiting.

[@johndorney7812]

Interesting discussion; but a comment. The guest says that the Russians would not use artillery to take Odessa, they would do what they did in Mariupol. In Mariupol they flattened virtually the entire city with artillery and air strikes. Moreover there is no way to take a heavily defended city otherwise. E.g. Aleppo in 2016; Mosul in 2017, Fallujah in 2004 etc etc. It looks very unlikely that the Russians can make more than incremental gains in south Ukraine at this point. Progress for them in Donbass is also very slow. I'm not sure the Russians are 'winning' in the sense of achieving their war aims. I think the host is right to question this.

[@scottdavis4439]

This didn't age well...

[@goedel.]

Meh, Russia will reconquer it within a short amount of time.

[@eachday5705]

@@goedel. My prediction russia is done, like state i mean.

[@aibackpain]

Your comment didnt age well

[@leight420]

@@eachday5705 you prediction is silly lol, russia is doing better than ever

[@yareddejene462]

It did 😂

[@DreamJourneyJo]

Andys prediction that Ukraine would fall by autumn 2022 was incorrect; as was his prediction Ukraine would fall within 14 days - however good his analysis is he’s not infallible.

[@johnduncan9036]

Remember this dumb take that Putin was winning this phase of the war?? 😂😂😂

[@blagicakolevska3918]

Thank you , great interview. Everything he say makes sense , even after 1 year

[@JAMIT87]

Not one of his words should be taken by face value. Everything expressed can be or is part of some sort of misinformation campaign. No need to argue with one another- take what he says, along with your observations and come up with your own "assessment".

[@djm9276]

Good point.

[@Falconer710]

Well said 🤌🏾

[@nektarsolne4niy804]

NGL he sounds like Russian TV propaganda. Completey disregarding Ukraine and Western success in information/econonomic/military war and just saying that “The West is losing money so Russia will come on top”, “The West does not want to sacrifice economy/comfort for Ukraine”, “nobody knows what Putin was planning at first, so “WIN” can be anything he says anytime he wants”. Some bullshit arguments that barely have any empirical support or just rhetorical arguments that don’t mean anything.

[@296jacqi]

Yeah, he didn’t seem “objective” whatsoever. Sounded like he had his answer written out ahead of time and said what he was supposed to say.

[@JF-yo7vu]

All these emotional comments here proves how serious the information war is. This guy woke up and chose facts. Yall should start being quiet and listening more like lex

[@pasza_dem]

He is full of shit. Just one thing he said that Odessa will be taken like Mariupol, because how important it is for Russians, and they want to preserve it... This is such a Big bullshit l, Mariupol was erased, to the ground 90% of buildings where destroyed by airbombs and artillery.

[@MatthewsGauss]

add on that he thinks the whole country will be taken by the fall. They haven't even taken Mykolaiv.

[@russi1743]

This guy's predictions right on... not quite right with dates tho but close enough

[@thekingofallblogs]

Wow, this did not age well

[@vladkeel]

Wow, turns out CIA guy was really bad about this analysis thing...

[@user-ww8nz5oo2l]

lmfao what stats are you seeing. its 8 to 1 casualty ratios in favor of russia. ukraine air defence is nearly done. what kool aid did you drink?

[@Lyvasiliy]

Two years into this and Bustamante is 💯 RIGHT!!

[@FN-im9xj]

Absolutely

[@vukasinjosic9719]

how so?@@FN-im9xj

[@thabisothabane3800]

True

[@pietbiertappertje4529]

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@defenstrator4660]

Funnily enough this is one of those conversations from a realist that I found rather naive. What is required the most is the will to win. If the European countries are willing to sacrifice then the Ukraine can keep no problem. The Europeans have finally got it through their heads that Russian energy is a hand on their throat, and that it is far better to suffer sone short term pain to tear it off than live with it there.

[@Rouge55]

You do know the threat of nuclear war and ww3 also looms so I ask you this are you willing to die for the ambitions of the elites. And lastly Ukraine wouldn't even be western allied if it wasn't for the CIA so he knows for sure.

[@jmhorange]

The problem is what's short term pain? 2, 5, 10 years? And energy prices and inflation are high, regardless of whether a country uses Russian energy or not, because we are a global economy. I think it's telling that Europe didn't have a strategy to mitigate Russian retaliation to sanctions before applying them. They just applied them and are hoping for the best. We really need to be figuring out how Ukraine can win soon, not talking about how this is all going to plan and will weaken Russian over the next decade.

[@svengali5862]

You clowns will fight down to the last Ukrainian , and those that survive this war will be left off paying debts to you for the next 100 years. You and I both know this as this has been your standard practice for years now.

[@RedSpicyFeast1010]

​@@jmhorange Ukraine will never win anything. Not only will the Ukrainians suffer but US and its European vassals will suffer as well as the value of USD dramatically declines in the coming time.

[@LeadLeftLeon]

They had an agreement in place regarding the Donbas. Minsk agreement failed. Russia will keep going until the Armed Forces of Ukraine is nothing more than a self-defense force

[@User0resU-1]

And people wonder why Russia is pissed off. Nazis murdering civilians in the donbass for 8yrs, and the west turns a blind eye. Lex is smart but in this war he's dumb. The nazi problem is well documented in Western msm.

[@User0resU-1]

And people wonder why Russia is pissed off. Nazis murdering civilians in the donbass for 8yrs, and the west turns a blind eye. Lex is smart but in this war he's dumb. The nazi problem is well documented in Western msm.

[@janosb5885]

well, based on the recent events in Ukraine, this didn't age well :D

[@jackripper8337]

It’s going even worse now.

[@Ogole-oye]

Also point out the withdrawal from Kyiv was in hope that both parties would act in good faith till Boris happened. So the miscalculation was trusting sound minds and good will which was flashed down the drain and here we are two years later in something that could have been resolved

[@Grimenoughtomaketherobotcry]

I think Bustamante underestimates the strategic importance of wheat. Whoever controls Ukrainian wheat exports wields a powerful weapon of influence, particularly in Africa and west Asia. This is very much a consideration for the US, and most definitely an important reason for their involvement thus far. Rather disingenuous of him to not mention this, as was glossing over US interest in Donetsk natural gas or the oil reserves off the Black Sea coast. To his credit, he does mention the boon to US weapons manufacturers of being able to field test systems, though he fails to mention the boon Lend Lease also is to their profits. Hardly a minor US policy consideration as regards Ukraine.

[@peetky8645]

those are all the reasons russia is taking this territory....

[@Grimenoughtomaketherobotcry]

@@peetky8645 I don't disagree with you, but the conversation was specifically about US policy.

[@Unknown-lp9mu]

Why isn't nato and Europe more interested? Can the u.s have more interest than Europe? Maybe that's what he is implying

[@mehrdadmazhari5131]

You know there are a lot “miss calculation” out there and the people making them some how “accidentally” benefited from it instead of being held accountable for it .

[@zlozlozlo]

That's not how you spell miscalculation.

[@mehrdadmazhari5131]

You are right I was a little heated when I wrote it 😅

[@leviburnum4009]

Lex talking about propaganda not realizing how much he has bought into the wests propaganda, never seen Lex say so many stupid things. It is like someone being too emotionally involved in something, you cannot see the situation clearly.

[@renstein8210]

Lex going to the front line at the invitation of a military and not realizing that he is being fed propaganda is astounding. The last person that I would trust for an honest assessment on this war is a Ukrainian. Either Lex has a huge blind spot or he is being disingenuous about this.

[@fanfeck2844]

And you’ve chosen your propaganda

[@leviburnum4009]

@@renstein8210 he's probably getting that cia money lol

[@chrystya]

Signing off to go to a channel where I actually respect somebody that I can see is knowledgeable

[@drevilatwork]

At 28 20... russia stepped up to the negotiating table without turning to mass blind destruction... on what planet is this guy living? that's exactly what Russia was doing until Himars rockets took out their munitions depos. Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities look like they have been nuked...

[@apocaRUFF]

This guy seems to have a lot of opinions on topics he doesn't actually know about. He seems to try harder to push that he's right the less he actually knows what he's talking about.

[@iforgot1801]

Yep in hindsight he has wrong. Thankfully. Not sure if he's looking for work on RT like a few others..

[@paulblue9397]

Love how you'll say he doesn't know what he's talking about but you won't correct him lmao

[@paulblue9397]

@@iforgot1801time frame might of been off but the facts he pointed out are still totally valid

[@iforgot1801]

@Paul Blue correct what? He sounds like a Russian apologist. He was wrong. You'd have to be delusional to claim he was right. Even Russian propagandists laid off much of their prior material. I follow this from multiple sources and languages so forgive me if I am unimpressed with this former cia analyst whose predictions were proven wrong.

[@adrianpatrascu571]

he feels like a diversity hire , nothing more

[@blue-tb6uv]

CIA as always spot on 🤣🤣 none of his little theories turned out to be right after 😁

[@user-ww8nz5oo2l]

Ummm what news have you watched. russia is in full control of the conflict.

[@mariannepedersenhagen6760]

I agree

[@ruska420]

This guys is a joke just like his hair. Just a few points: - said Ukraine would owe trillions of dollars because of the war. US hasn't even given the full 40 billion it's committed to. - said Mariupol wasnt captured from artillery. Mariupol was bombed so much it no longer had running water. - trys to downplay western military support which has been very effective - Germany and many other western countries have already planned to be mostly off Russian gass by winter I could go on, but I genuinely don't get how anyone can stand this guy. His whole persona is so anoying

[@superalex4real]

Yip, he’s got no idea what he’s talking about

[@702Media]

This guy was in the CIA? Holy shit man 🤦‍♂️

[@pasza_dem]

More like FSB asset in CIA.

[@Secular-Republic]

he is out of reality 🤡🤡

[@Mrvariety-2003]

@@Secular-Republic obviously u r ukraine has no chance

[@Secular-Republic]

@@Mrvariety-2003 chance of what ?

[@Mrvariety-2003]

@@Secular-Republic of winning. My cousin was in Ukraine said those ukrops run like bats out of hell leave all their precious western weaponry behind too.

[@melange78]

Furthermore, it was hearts and minds that made US lose both Vietnam and Afghanistan. Has the CIA forgotten about those already?

[@gs7828]

Will Russia win peace and control? I doubt it. CIA should know about the difficult definition of conflict and peace.

[@MrMurica]

>CIA >Compitent Intelligence Agency Pick One

[@nektarsolne4niy804]

Stop bringing up stuff that doesn’t support his argument please, it’s propaganda we got cooking here.

[@pedrocasonatti8067]

You didnt get the point dude. Hearts and minds are important in a DEMOCRACY/REPUBLIC. In the US,UK, EU, of course it matters. Hearts and minds dont matter in an AUTOCRACY. The people have no power to enforce their will on the government. SPECIALLY in an unarmed country.

[@melange78]

@@pedrocasonatti8067 Are you insinuating that Ukraine is an autocracy or that North Vietnam and Afghanistan were democracies?

[@xorenpetrosyan2879]

30:20 it's very funny how Andrew gets almost annoyed by the naitive of Lex. Lex is a really good dude with asumptions that everyone is good like he is

[@BigChap117]

Or he's really good at appearing like he is ;)

[@gregoryedwards9097]

Lmao! Hell yeah when he said “man” that was the beginning 😂

[@sbarter]

​@@BigChap117 I think he asks questions from different angles intentionally. It's hard to get a read on where he actually stands on a subject. He's walking a thin line sometimes and I suppose that's the best way to navigate it

[@WilliamParkerer]

I don't think that's naivety. Ukraine is different. The attention is greater because this time white people are being killed, as opposed to Afghanistan, Hong Kong, etc.

[@tommyhuffman7499]

Honestly, Lex, the comment section for this video was fire. Nice work.

[@danilodachabozovic4143]

Great historic minds and analysts have no clue how this can shape and don’t dare to through a prediction. Very, very bold statement.

[@patrickdonohue530]

Ukraine has severely crippled RU.

[@NomadJoe0323]

Watching this on 7/27/2023. Would Andrew call what he said a “slight miscalculation”?

[@Qnexus7]

I'm surprised to see this many people in the comments appreciating so positively this guys analysis which to me for about 90% looks like the exact opposite of what multiple evidences suggest. Ukraine is loosing billions with the grain situation but who needs more that grain is the african countries and who wants most to see the grain supplied is europe in order to contain the upcoming political and mass migration crisis. All while the same eu and usa regularly support with billions ukraines effort which is the main concern internally anyway. This guy analyses everything through a specific lance and somehow russia is winning in any scenarion, sure, all while the front is already exhausted. Time will tell this fall whether the ukranians take back kherson or something else or the russians keep "winning" perhaps more than they do right now.

[@callmedeno]

If we look at the maps since day 1, and you just see a slow and steady gaining of massive amounts of territory, while support for Ukraine and Ukrainian leadership are both coming under pressure, what evidence is suggesting this is good for Ukraine?

[@clarkymarsh1881]

@@callmedeno russia invaded Ukraine. LITERALLY NOTHING from this war is good for Ukraine. Aside from exposing to the world this weak, incompetent, poor, and poorly trained russian military, Ukraine is lacking in “good” stuff at the moment. Surely you knew that though. Also, where exactly has Ukraine lost support? Please share your sources or evidence because I haven’t seen that around the news lately.

[@toddianuzzi9296]

Mass migration is a policy not a crisis

[@Qnexus7]

@@toddianuzzi9296 sure and tin foil hats are kalergi approved

[@peterrumspringa9757]

@@callmedeno The Russian losses. They are at present using Syrian mercenaries, Chechen mercenaries, the Wagner group, the few survivors of the rebels from dunbas, hard criminals from prisons, minorities from Siberia etc. etc. Not good.

[@richardmorgan1755]

lol. Both were talking out of their asses 😁😂😂

[@Yankee_Uniform]

Just came back to say his "assessment" of the war in Ukraine was shite. Twice wrong.

[@georgiansandc2476]

where is this "omniscient" guy with his lame forecasts somehow all happened to be wrong somehow?

[@daigtas2203]

I have serious doubt with this assessment. Europe will feel the pain this winter for sure. But not on the level of people freezing to death. It will be a steep economic cost. At the same time we have a structural reorganization away from Russian energy happening right now. Lack of Russian gas in Europe will be much less of a problem next year. As to Russia winning the war in Ukraine is a total fantasy. Russian army has serious manpower issues. They are trying to compensate battlefield losses with poorly trained volunteers. There are no reserves for big offensives to speak of. In fact, Russians are on the defensive since the end of July. We currently see the methodical Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson region north of Dnipro river. They lured signifficant portion of Russian Donbass force to Kherson region and then cut them off by destroying bridges and (as of yesterday) railway lines from Crimea. Russia has a massive logistical problem right now. In addition, Russian munition storages and command centers, anti-air defence systems in the area are being blown up everyday now. We will see how effective Ukrainians will be able in exploiting the situation, but they have the upper hand right now.

[@greatwu2008]

Source - trust me

[@daigtas2203]

@@greatwu2008 Source needed for which part? I mean I'm happy to provide it. Given its a good faith dialogue.

[@greatwu2008]

@@daigtas2203 every statement needs proofs. Do you remember when in March west newspapers said that 1 week left till Russia would lack of food and weapons? Don't trust western news - it's propaganda. It doesn't allow another points of view - "freedom of speech")

[@daigtas2203]

@@greatwu2008 I do remember claims that Russian troops lacked supplies in March. That was proven correct. And it was the reason why they had to pull back from Northern Ukraine and moved to Donbas where the supply lines were more secure. I dont trust western mainstream media either. We live in times where we are forced to crosscheck claims using multiple sources and perspectives and even then we cannot be certain. That does not mean that mainstream media is lying every time. I myself live in the country neighbouring Russia, so this situation has my undivided attention. My sources are Western, Ukrainian and even Russian military experts, journalists, that I follow on Twitter or Yt.

[@ears9506]

Really enjoyed this video greatly. I feel like I had a real work-out with two different sides who held very different, deeply emotional beliefs. And yet, both were professional and continue talking and exploring options.... very impressive. I would like to be this skilled at human relationships. Thank you both.

[@muller2956]

Hahahah, this guy hasn't been following the war at all. Just from first 10 minutes: >Georgia, Crimea/Donbas 2014. None expected? You want to tell me this guy has military background and he wasn't following these both wars at all? You can't even compare 9 days war in Georgia and it's scale with what happend in Ukraine in 2014 and what happens now. Ukraine has used the last 8 years effectively. NATO was involved in units training, Ukrainians were modernizing their vehicles, thousends Ukrainian troops took temporary part in ATO. Tons of equipment was delivered throught these 8 years, even goddamn Ukrainian SOF was trained. It's true that in 2014 Ukraine relied on volunteer battalions but it changed dramatically during these years. With NATO above them for god's sake! This guy knows shit. >Russia will take all the South by Fall. With what? Becuase not with general mobilization. Then with what? Was he even following the battle on Sievierodonetsk? It not only took months for RUS to take this small portion of land and 2 average cities (and there is more of them on the way) but also involved all RUS units that could be used for offensive. ONE GODDAMN DIRECTION. How are they suppose to extend frontline with these forces to the entire southern part of Ukraine? >Russians won't just bomb Odessa because of cultural stuff. XD XD. Big fucking XD. Don't know if he's blind or just dumb. Russians don't give a fuck what are they bombing. Just because some building is related to Russian culture doesn't mean they give a fuck about it. There is toons of them in Ukraine. And what? Special Wagner Cultural group is making sure not to hit this or another church. Of course not XD. Rockets and artilery hit what they hit. Mariupol, Kharkiv, Siversk, Sievierodonetsk etc. are cities considered to be Russian (by Russians). And that didn't mean anything. What shit is this guy talking about?! >Europe will freeze to death this Winter: Bro, all European countries that were dependent on Russian gas already found or is finding any possible replacement for Russian source (Poland, Baltics, Czech etc. for example will rely on Baltic Pipe and liquefied gas). US itself was already sending their gas for months. Germany and Austria are retarads but they will have to figure it our finially or simply reactive nuclear reactors. There is really no reason to foretell apocalyptic scenarios.

[@nikolaykaradzhiev1889]

Aged like milk

[@Saucebawss]

The unequivocal assessment of ‘winning’ given the losses and lack of progress in YEARS is pretty remarkable. But I find the justification of ‘everyone thought he’d take Ukraine and he did because he was able to almost a decade ago’ as the logic behind the dramatic intelligence failure in the botched lightning invasion of a neighboring country *that you recently invaded* is…something to behold.

[@Saucebawss]

Just realized this was from a year ago! Wow. Failnalysis. Don’t trust a field agent with big boy warfare analysis (though his points around money and energy are on point).

[@survivingsobriety2562]

well he was wrong lol in a week or two Russia might not even have LPR,DPR any more and by Christmas Ukraine may have mariopol back

[@alexmashine]

5his curly dude know nothing, just 0