China Dials Up US Trade Tensions; South Korea In Turmoil | Bloomberg: The China Show 12/4/2024

[@i6power30]

China has shown great restraint given enormously hostile trade and military pressure from the US.

[@singleline2961]

Recently, China's central government has only had a debt to GDP ratio of 20%, which is too small to be mentioned, especially when it is compared with the US's 160% and Japan's 260%, meaning that the coming economy-stimulating policy space available for the Chinese central government is still almost unlimited, not to mention the vast amount of real and financial assets contemporaneously being owned by all the government-related entities in the country. - During today's balance-sheet-recession-like economic downturn, China's central bank doesn't need to print any new money (and China's commercial banks don't need to create too many related new loans either) to help finance the coming much-propped-up deficit spending of China's central government, if any, because her Ministry of Finance can simply borrow the excess going-to-no-where savings available in China's financial markets ------ this is especially the case in capital-outflow-controlling China. --- Given today's population-shrinking-induced near-saturation of China's housing market (which I think is still highly debatable, considering China's unrelaxed hukou and migration restrictions in the higher-tier big cities), the logical next economic major mission for the current Beijing decision-makers is for them to find suitable new sources of future fast GDP growth for China. - But, perhaps mostly distracted by (i) the US's trade restrictions and technology iron curtain forcefully imposed on China in recent years, and (ii) the big success of China's domestic all-encompassing supply chains in providing enough sorely-needed merchandises of all kinds to the rest of the world during the Covid-lockdown months, today's Beijing leaders have inadequately chosen mainly high-technology upgrades to try to (mostly) replace the good old housing market as the country's main means to future sustained GDP growth. --- Those kinds of manufacturing upgrades and further technology-cum-new-energy breakthroughs are of course sorely needed by today's US-chasing China, but the total combined size of all of those future maturing markets, relative to the present size of China's GDP, will still be too small compared with that of the country's super-big land-related housing market and all its closely-related upstream and downstream industries combined in the past decades. - So, China's coming "Manufacturing Finance" alone can hardly replace her good old "Land Finance" in continuing to quickly pull China's economic cart forward. Furthermore, China's resulting undiminished manufacturing productive capacities, or so-called "too-big" excessive productive capacities claimed by the US recently, has actually been helping the US to fight her inflation in recent post-Covid years. - It's like the similar situation in the US that, today, the total market capitalization of the US's bitcoins (currently a bit less than US$2 trillion) is still too small relative to the total size of the US's say tradable government treasury market, unless the future price of each bitcoin, the supply of which is already fixed, could really rise to as high as US$1 million as some people are now eagerly expecting. --- Today's lack of a new and big-enough investable capital pool in China, that's comparable with that of her good old booming housing and related markets, together with China's strict capital-outflow control, mostly explain the recent quick fall in China's 10-year yield that seems to be disliked by Beijing, since it seems that, at least up until today, China's central-bank-lately-boosted stock market has failed to act as one. - Which also means, unlike the US, China today actually has had a much simpler economic problem facing the Beijing leaders ------ what's the next destination for the country's massive capital and liquidity pool to transfer to, so that China's coming GDP growth rate can still be maintained at a not-too-low level ? ---

[@mrkickback2010]

How can korea continue to be a major exporter partner if its severe demographic decline is producing fewer young workers.

[@ArabicReja973]

The ban on semiconductor exports to China 🇨🇳 is one of the most important policy moves of *the century.* - The Chinese regime has been spending billions and billions to figure out *what's going on.*

[@amunra5330]

China just banned the export of rare earth materials to the US. So what is the update on The Philippines VP? Was she investigated? Also will Marcos Jr get his daddies money that is still frozen in US banks? No wonder the Philippines in a mess lol

[@ToiChutGongWu]

Oh dear, the usual mendacious spam from "ArabicRegia".

[@TaylorCrane1312]

Endians can’t math 😂😂😂

[@pippokennedy121]

China is the dominant supplier of rare earth metals (REMs) to the global market, accounting for approximately 85-95% of total supply since the late 1990s. With the ban on the export of germanium and gallium to the US market, how can we think about building 5G, new radars or infrared optical devices, just to give a few examples?